When it comes to contracts, we as fans tend to look at things from the team’s perspective rather than the player’s perspective.  To actually accomplish anything both parties have to agree on a new deal.  So, let’s try to look at the players’ side of things because it takes two to tango.  David Michalski suggested restructuring the deals of several players, which to me includes pay cuts, extensions and manipulating the cap.  Let’s look at that from both sides now.  A note: I have never been a sports agent or a general manager for a team.  This article is employing mostly common sense (I hope).  I have negotiated thousands of insurance settlements and also attended mediation and arbitration sessions.  I acknowledge that there is a qualitative difference.

Mike Daniels:

Daniels is scheduled to earn $8.5 million dollars in cash in 2019.  $8.5 million is also his cap savings number.  Daniels has $500,000 in incentives for an unknown number of sacks.  He has $2.4 million in dead money if released or traded.  His cap number is $10.712 million.

Daniels is still a really good player according to all the film gurus.  PFF ranked Daniels as the 60th best interior defensive player with a 71.2 grade.  [PFF ranked Wilkerson and Lowry a little higher than Daniels, which I find ridiculous.]  Daniels was on pace for 8 QB hits.  From 2015 to 2017 he had 9, 11, and 11 QB hits.  In 2018 Daniels was on pace for 29 combined tackles, far below the 49 he put up in 2015 and 2017 in full seasons.  He was on pace for 2 tackles for loss, far less than the 8 he averaged over the previous three seasons.  I would suggest that he is still a very good player who showed some modest regression in 2018.

What is he worth in 2019? Daniels is probably as good as to Derek Wolfe and he is easily better than DaQuan Jones.  They are scheduled to receive $8.55 million and $7 million, respectively.  He was not as good as Sheldon Richardson or Jurell Casey, who is due $11.15 million due in cash.

Player’s Viewpoint:  Daniels’ market for 2019 is something in the area of $8.5 million in cash on the open market.  A straight pay cut cannot be forced upon Daniels.  Assuming his level of play does not significantly change in 2019, he should be able to get $8 million AAV on a three-year deal even though I will be 31.  Therefore, Daniels should be pretty certain to get $8.5 million cash in 2019 and another $8 million in cash after the 2019 season in salary and signing bonuses.  He could get an insurance policy for one year if necessary.  Drafting an interior defensive lineman high in the 2019 draft does not really affect this calculation.  At worst Daniels (and his contract) would be traded.  So, $16.5 million over two years should be the baseline.

The Potential Deal:

The parties could decide to tack on 3 years and $24M onto Daniels' current contract.  Green Bay saved $3.012 million on the cap in 2019.  The spreadsheet below seems like a good result with a decent two-year out.  The dollars were increased for 2021 on the chance that it could be an uncapped season or a lock-out situation in 2021.  The Packers could back-load the deal more to free up additional cap, but should be reluctant to do that with rising cap hits from Rodgers, Bakhtiari, Linsley and Adams and due to Daniels' age.

Nick Perry:

Perry's current contract has a $14.437 million cap hit and $11.1 million in dead money overall.  Perry is scheduled to earn $11M in cash in 2019.  PFF rated him below average with a 53.1 grade and ranked him as the 100th best edge player.  His statistics, suffice to say, are terrible.  I suspect that Perry's ankle never fully healed because he seemed to be unable push off on it.  That negated his bull-rush, which is his only real pass-rushing strength.  A small minority of fans have noted that Perry has had a very good sacks per snap rate until this year.  In 2016 and 2017, Perry had 16 and 13 QB hits to go with 12 and 6 tackles for loss, respectively.  In 2018, Perry had just 3 QB hits and 2 tackles for loss in 2018.

The team’s perspective ought to be that $11 million in new dollars is a lot to pay to find out if Perry can produce in 2019, especially if it is spent just to save $3.7 million in dead money.  A lot depends on whether the team thinks it has something in Fackrell or if 2018 was a fluke, and also on the team's intentions towards Clay Matthews.

Player's Viewpoint: Perry’s biggest leverage is the dead money on his contract, along with the lack of talent on the roster at his position.  Perry probably knows that if he is released his market is somewhere between the veteran’s minimum and a few million dollars on a prove-it deal, little of which is likely to be guaranteed.  Perry knows that the Packers will be looking to use a high pick to acquire his replacement, but due to Perry's $4.8 million roster bonus, due March 15, the team will not know which players will be available at pick number 12.  The combine will have concluded on March 4, so the team will have seen those results and interviewed prospects.

The Deal:

Perry should consider accepting a huge pay cut.  How much depends on one’s view of Perry’s upside but mostly on his current market if he is released.  He is not generally considered to be effective in pass coverage even when he is healthy.  The team should insist on the complete elimination of Perry's $4.8 million roster bonus currently due on March 15th.  Since workout bonuses essentially act as guaranteed money, the team should insist on reducing it from $400,000 to something much smaller or eliminating it altogether.

I would suggest cutting Perry's possible cash payment from $11 million to about $3.5 million by eliminating all roster, game-active, and workout bonuses, and reducing his base salary from $5.2 million to $3.5 million.  That is essentially Ahmad Brooks money.  The two have similarities: both are good run defender who can take on offensive linemen and hold out the possibility of some pass rush.  I would not be opposed to including some significant but difficult to reach incentives.  Given Perry's poor season in 2018, practically any incentive would be unlikely-to-be-earned, and thus would not count against his cap hit unless and until earned.  The cap savings with that base salary and his prorated bonus would be $7.237 million.

Perry essentially faces a prove-it year.  It can be done in Green Bay or with some other team, assuming one will sign him if released.  Perry might want to go elsewhere if he feels that Pettine's scheme did not suit him or if he thinks he might fare better as a defensive end in a 4-3 scheme.  Perry turns 29 on April 12, 2019, so the sooner the better for his prove-it season.  Perry might want to stay in Green Bay for his prove-it season since there are no changes to the terms of his contract for 2020 or 2021.  He is scheduled to earn over $10 million in each of those years.          

Aside from the cap savings, this deal relieves pressure on the Packers to sign Clay Matthews, overpay in free agency, or to reach in the draft for multiple edge rushers just to have bodies at OLB.  That depends on GM Gutekunst’s view of Matthews, the free agent possibilities (when they become known), and the draft prospects.  Perry knows Pettine's system and perhaps the coaches still feel production can be coaxed out of him.  Short of Perry retiring or being suspended by the NFL for some infraction, there is no way to eliminate Perry's dead money.  This renegotiation whittles down the dead money issue that the Packers will face again in 2020 if Perry is retained under a modified deal, and it costs less to find out about Perry.

Coming Up: Bulaga, Tramon Williams, and Jimmy Graham.