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Railbird Central Podcast: Cowboys Had a 99.7 Percent Chance of Winning at Halftime

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Railbird Central Podcast: Cowboys Had a 99.7 Percent Chance of Winning at Halftime

Episode 343

Start by considering this:

We invite Peter Bukowski of Sports Illustrated to help us break down the Packers' 23-point comeback victory. We discuss the play of Matt Flynn, the enigmatic Packers defense, the future of defensive coordinator Dom Capers, the Rookie of the Year chances for Eddie Lacy and what might happen with Aaron Rodgers.

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Brian Carriveau is the author of "It's Just a Game: Big League Drama in Small Town America" and editor of Cheesehead TV's "Pro Football Draft Preview." To contact Brian, email [email protected].

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (26) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Derek in Co's picture

That stat alone is absolutely unbelievable. We all witnessed history yesterday.

Arlo's picture

Historic or not, GB (and the fans) need to be a little realistic about the Cowpokes game. GB gave up 36 points and 466 yards. Dallas looked putrid in the 2nd half & basically gave the Pack the win.

We're still back to square one. The only thing that matters going forward from this point on is AR returning to the line-up this weekend against the Steelers. Without AR, the Pack's chances of making the playoffs & making any noise in the playoffs are still slim.

Another Homer's picture

Another Packer fan invested in GB having a bad season.

FFS, let us enjoy a great win for at least a day dude! Let your need to be right about the team have a holiday for 24 hours our so please...

Arlo's picture

Sorry, but, I don't post to pacify the needs of others. No one does or should.

PackerAaron's picture

Arlo - I'm pretty sure everyone here knows that. It's a given.

That said - that was an awesomely epic win yesterday. What's the point of being a fan of a team if you don't enjoy the victory for at least, oh, say, 24 hours? Good god man. Loosen up.

Arlo's picture

Most who visit your site are idealists. It'll take them all week to start to focus on reality. I like to look at the whole picture ASAP.

Good god man. You do it your way. I'll do it mine.

RC Packer Fan's picture

So after the Packers won their last Super Bowl, what was your reaction?
How long did you enjoy the victory? Did you celebrate or immediately go into the dungeon to figure out their needs for the next year?

Arlo's picture

Your posts are still irrelevant to me.

RC Packer Fan's picture

Damn. That hurts...

I have spent all my time to make myself relevant in your eyes...

I guess I failed my life's objective.

Albert Lingerfeld's picture

It doesn't matter if Rog comes back or not if the Lions win the next three. If the Lions win our, were out period. The Bears are in it too but we at least play them once so we have some matter in their destiny but if the Lions win, the Bears and Pack are both out.

Stroh's picture

And how do you think Detroit is going to do that? They've lost 3 of the last 4 and have a history of being their own worst enemy AND having mental brain farts almost weekly!

Point Packer's picture

Arlo - How about those Ravens?

Arlo's picture

Gee PP, you sure have jumped back on the bandwagon! Another fair weather fan. As long as they win ..... right?

RC Packer Fan's picture

I don't think you have to worry about that since the Ravens ended the hopes of the Lions winning the next 3 with a 61 yard FG...

Buster's picture

Geez, the homers seem to be pretty much in control here. No wonder most of the objective analysis is long gone. Must stick to the house opinion.

RC Packer Fan's picture

Well since this is a Packer Fan website... Yeah, we are homers...

Objective analysis is gone? As in Troll's have left?

I have no problem with people bringing different views and opinions. But bring factual opinions. So many people come here just to start arguments (trolls).

Point Packer's picture

Arlo - Been on the band-wagon since the first day I can remember watching a GB game. Believe it or not, one can criticize his/her team and still be a fan. My points of discontent this year:

1) MM's suspect play calling: See 1st half of Dallas game.

2) Safety play: No comment needed.

3) Lack of consistent pass rush: See 1st half of Dallas game.

4) Run defense: No comment needed.

Despite all of this, do we still have a legit chance of making the playoffs? Yes. As a Packer fan, am I excited about that? Yes. Did we just come back from 23 points down in the 2nd half of an away game with our back-up QB to stay in the playoff hunt? Yes.

I reserve the right to criticize my team and still be on the band-wagon. If you disagree with that, you can go fuck yourself.

Charlie's picture

Which confirms the old adage that there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Stroh's picture

I thought I read at halftime it was 6% chance and down in the 4th was 3%. This was from reading FoxSportsWi. Don't know who to believe either way it was a great comeback and huge win!

the statistical win probability for Green Bay at the beginning of the third quarter was six percent. With 3:52 left in the third quarter and the Packers down 29-10, their win probability was three percent.

Albert Lingerfeld's picture

Good thing it was Romo. All I know is the Pack D gave up 331 yards in the first half and hearing football commentators the past two weeks, while being tackful. saying " Teams just don't give up this kind of yardage".
" Wow can you believe all the big plays Dallas is getting"
"Its almost like there isn't a defense on the field" and my favorite " The Packers can't stop the run or the pass"
Superbowl? Ya someday when Capers System is gone and there is a house cleaning of sorts. The Lions got a lot better this year, the Vikes are a good QB from being a dominant team, the Bears need some defensive help, little things and were in the basement for a few years coming.

Wisconsinexile's picture

Those odds basically work out so that if that game is played over and over with the same starting score in the second half, the Packers only win once every 300 tries. If they replayed that game 16 times a year, it would take around 19 years to see a win. That's an epic win alright!

CtSharpeCheddar's picture

The Romo factor makes it abought 48% chance of winning the game with that lead

The TKstinator's picture

I just thought it was a helluva lotta fun to watch (in its entirety)...what was the question again?

Point Packer's picture

I cannot believe what just happened in Detroit.

Justin Tucker - thank you,

Stroh's picture

In a year Detroit has everything happen to their advantage (Rodgers and Cutler being out) having a nice lead in the division, late in the year and favorable remaining schedule the Leo's STILL find a way to blow it all.

RC Packer Fan's picture

I still think its funny how a few weeks ago a quite a few here kept saying how the Lions were going to win it all...

I guess these certain people forgot they were the Lions and not the Patriots.

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