The Green Bay Packers will be looking to get off to a better start than they have through the first three weeks of the 2018 NFL season when they welcome the Buffalo Bills to Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon.

The Bills are coming off their shocking victory over the Minnesota Vikings where they became only the fifth NFL team since 1990 to win facing a point spread of 15 points or more. (The Vikings were favored by 16.5) After two weeks of inept quarterback play, the Bills went to their first round rookie QB Josh Allen and the kid provided the spark they needed on offense.

The real story of the Bills win in Minnesota, however, were the early turnovers the defense was able to produce which gave the ball to the offense in advantageous field position. Once Buffalo had a commanding lead, their defensive front was able to pin its ears back and make life miserable for the Vikings offense.

The Packers have started slowly on offense three weeks in a row. The hope is they finally jump out to an early lead and keep their entire offensive game plan available to them rather than having to junk things because they need to get into comeback mode.

WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL:

Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll did a great job helping his young quarterback get into a rhythm last week in Minnesota. He also did a great job dialing up a play that ended up going for a touchdown that took advantage of the fact that his offense had spent the first part of the game giving Allen short, safe throws. The Vikings started jumping the short stuff, thinking they were starting to get a read on the limitations of the rookie quarterback.

Then this happened.

Love this design from Brian Daboll: pic.twitter.com/yEWSsddGkY

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) September 26, 2018

Allen has a cannon for an arm. One could reasonably expect an offensive coach to be tempted to have him come out gunning it downfield. Daboll was smart with his restraint throughout much of last week’s game.

The Bills offensive line is a bit like the Island of Misfit Toys, in that most of them are castoffs from other teams, but they played well together within the offense last week. One matchup I’ll be interested in seeing is Reggie Gilbert, who could see more snaps due to Nick Perry’s lingering concussion, versus Buffalo’s right tackle, Jordan Mills. Gilbert has the kind of bend around the edge that can give Mills trouble.

In the backfield, dangerous running back LeSean McCoy will reportedly return for the Bills after missing last week’s game in Minnesota. He’s the kind of athlete that always gives the Packers trouble, and I don’t expect Sunday to be much different. Chris Ivory was productive in his absence and the two backs present a nice one-two punch. The Packers defensive front will have its hands full.

On the perimeter, I think the Packers actually match up pretty well. I’d expect Tramon Williams to be up against Kelvin Benjamin for much of the afternoon and Kevin King, if he plays through the groin injury that has him listed as Questionable on the injury report, to match up with Zay Jones. I think both of those favor the Packers.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL:

The big development here is Randall Cobb’s hamstring injury, which he apparently sustained during Wednesday’s practice. Cobb is listed as Questionable, but was downgraded from Limited to Did Not Participate on the injury report. Throw in Mike McCarthy sounding less than hopeful about Cobb’s participation when asked about him on Friday morning and all signs point to Cobb being sat down against the Bills.

What does this mean for the offense? McCarthy could go a number of different ways, from giving more snaps to rookie receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has seen a handful of snaps the last few weeks, on the perimeter and moving Davante Adams into the slot the way they used to with Jordy Nelson.

McCarthy could also look to get his stable of tight ends onto the field more, which would force Buffalo to stay in base personnel. With the flexibility Jimmy Graham and Lance Kendricks offer, this would be a good way to get one of them matched up on a linebacker in the slot.

Yet another way McCarthy could adjust would be to utilize Ty Montgomery as a straight up replacement for Cobb. Montgomery has the skills necessary to feature in the slot and can obviously handle the handful of looks in the backfield that Cobb sees nearly every game.

Of course, it’s quite possible the Packers end up using a bit of each of these when replacing Cobb.

The bigger concern this week is getting off to a better start on offense and staying out of the 3rd and long situations that have plagued this offense over the first three weeks of the season.

Earlier this week, both McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers mentioned facing way too many 3rd and 10+ situations. Negative plays on first down in particular have been a bugaboo. One easy way to combat this? Give Aaron Jones the damn ball. Even when things are seemingly shut down up front, Jones has a great ability to find space to pick up yardage. He’s also a positive play waiting to happen.

One big concern this week is at right guard. Byron Bell will most likely get the start for Justin McCray. I’d expect to see an old McCarthy wrinkle with a tight end lined up behind Bell on some passing downs to try and beef up interior protection.

The Bills defense is riding high off their performance in Minnesota, but they are still a vulnerable unit. They have allowed 28 points per game through three weeks, not to mention a league-high 74.2% completion rate. If the Packers can keep Rodgers upright, they should be able to move the ball in chunks.

PREDICTION:

The Packers haven’t come close to playing a full game yet this season, and I don’t expect one to magically materialize on Sunday. I do think the matchup favors the Packers. Josh Allen is an exciting young quarterback who could go on to do big things in the NFL. But on Sunday, at Lambeau Field, he’ll have a front row to the Aaron Rodgers Show.

Packers: 30

Bills: 21