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Poor Luck No Excuse for Packers' [imminent] Downfall

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Poor Luck No Excuse for Packers' [imminent] Downfall

Where do we go from here? It’s unfamiliar territory, to say the least, that the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers fall short of a postseason berth. (Technically, the Packers still have a chance but let’s not get our hopes up—and Monday night’s Tampa Bay/Atlanta game will likely decide Green Bay’s fate.) 
For the first time since 2008, Rodgers’ first season as a starter, the Packers will be on the couch come January. The team’s exciting 4-1 start, punctuated as it was with a bevy of injuries, provided hope—as each season with Rodgers under center—that a deep postseason run was in order. But when Anthony Barr crushed Rodgers and his collarbone, the team’s flaws magnified tenfold. 
Sure, the hits kept coming, once again targeting particular position groups—namely the offensive line and defensive backs—with ferocity. Great teams find a way. Just ask the Patriots, who still managed 11 wins when Tom Brady went down in 2008. (Yes, that team missed the playoffs—a total statistical oddity.) 
The Packers defense was mostly a sieve, while the offense under Brett Hundley mostly disappointed and all but disappeared at Lambeau Field. 
All of this still led to a chance, though fleeting, for the Packers to find magic—historically it’s been Rodgers’ own sorcery—and find their way to the postseason. 
Then came Sunday, where Rodgers proved his humanity with an up-and-down, three-touchdown, three-interception performance. When Marwin Evans recovered the Packers’ onside kick in the final minutes, a game-tying drive felt, as these things have come to feel with Rodgers, to be inevitable. We all know how it ended. 
To be clear, the Packers faced a ton of adversity in 2017. Rodgers’ loss for eight games (including seven starts) derailed what should have been a ferocious NFC North battle with Minnesota. It’s hard not to envision the team is at least two games better with the best quarterback on the planet running the show. 
Add in the losses of Bryan Bulaga, his backup Kyle Murphy, top corner Kevin King and starting running back Ty Montgomery, and the picture becomes even bleaker. Those names don’t even begin to paint the full picture of the Packers’ fallen soldiers, the latest being Davante Adams—the Packers best offensive player this season, bar none—to a second egregious helmet-to-helmet collision that resulted in a concussion. 
There’s good luck, bad luck and—to quote Aaron Sorkin’s script for Moneyball—“Then there’s 50 feet of crap. And then there’s us.” 
And yet, none of the Packers’ misfortune feels like an appropriate excuse. Changes are in order. 
To that end, if it weren’t painfully clear already then it sure as hell is now—Dom Capers must go. Thirteen years ago Ed Donatell was dismissed after the 4th and 26 debacle. What has Capers’ penance been for leading a defensive unit that is almost always the ultimate culprit for the Packers’ demise? The Packers’ inability to stop teams—at all—in the red zone and their continued incompetence on third down might be the two straws that break the camel’s back. 
Ted Thompson isn’t without blame either. As Tom Silverstein wrote Monday, Thompson’s team-building approach has without fail produced a glaring deficiency with each passing season. This year it was inarguably the pass rush, which only shined occasionally against bad teams and bad quarterbacks. Cast off Julius Peppers tallied his 10th sack Sunday for the Panthers in, what felt like at the time, a game-winning sack. Micah Hyde shined in Buffalo. Martellus Bennett was an unmitigated disaster. 
It hasn’t all been bad. Rookies Aaron Jones, Kevin King, Jamaal Williams and Justin Vogel are real players. Josh Jones has clear potential. There are still reasons to be excited about the futures of Vince Biegel and Montravius Adams. 
And the Packers’ brain trust, led by Mark Murphy, is unlikely to do away with Thompson. That’s not a change likely to occur. But something needs to change if the Packers are to finally win with defense, rather than requiring Rodgers to carry the load. 
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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (92) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Razer's picture

You do need some luck to navigate a full NFL season and come out healthy enough to contend for a playoff run. And this team, even without Rodgers should have been in position to contend. A defense that should have been fixed by last year is again at the bottom of this failure. A good defense would have made any one of those Rodger-less games very winnable. Even the game against Carolina could have been at least a touchdown closer.

Yes we need a speed WR and yes we need a stud TE but our offense can and did carry this team. Repeated failures in scheme, talent and health has this defense near the bottom of the league. Other than hope, there is little evidence that anyone in this organization has a solution for our defense. It is the only real story going forward.

dobber's picture

The cupboard can't be bare for #12. I don't care if the pass-catchers are TEs or RBs or WRs...just guys who can run routes, beat defenders and catch passes. This offense has been very good or elite for years without a stud TE...but that doesn't mean it couldn't change. I would argue it needs a good dual-purpose TE to support the run game the Packers will need to have to protect #12 as he ages.

al bundy's picture

We had to use our te's to block for the piss poor o line protection. They really did zip on offence. Bennet was god awful and rogers is snail slow.

The TKstinator's picture

Like many others, I am done with Capers. I am really sick of hearing about miscommunications on defense.

On one hand, I definitely believe the best D’s have the best players. I do not believe any DC can “scheme” his way to success over a full season with inferior players. On the other hand, we always hear how easy it is to tear apart defenses that are “too vanilla”.

I say, give me Deion Sanders and Lester Hayes manned up all day with Reggie White and Lawrence Taylor rushing the passer. What a genius DC I could be with horses like that.

Problem is, those guys don’t grow on trees, and all the teams want them, not just the geniuses in GB.

GBPDAN1's picture

I just read an article on how bad the Packers D is. Worst in red zone D, worst in giving up drives of 5 minutes or more. Horrible in giving up 3rd down conversion., ect! This D has been unplayoff worthy for years.

TT is unable to fix it and Capers has issues. They must go! Then, a shut down CB to go along with King is needed, along with a dominant pass rusher. Not sure what to do about Dix, that's why I'm hoping they can work out something reasonable with Burnett.

A burner WR and a stud TE and probably RT. Someone needs to make this happen

The TKstinator's picture

That is a daunting wish list, even in this time of yuletide.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

Nonsense TK. I have a very modest Christmas list: win the powerball lottery, continued good health, and a modicum of wisdom. Just 3 things, and any 2 out of the 3 wouldn't be bad.

The TKstinator's picture

I sit corrected.

OrganLeroy's picture

Yeah, won't happen. No TE's on the roster either. Ted will waste this draft again without taking TE's & OLB's and Capers will be the DC on opening day 2018.

bjkdad44's picture

Sure hope not!!!!

Jamie Freier's picture

I have faith that Ted will find some ex-basketball players in this draft that he will convert to edge rushers and cover corners.

KenEllis's picture

"something needs to change if the Packers are to finally win with defense, rather than requiring Rodgers to carry the load."

Why does something need to change?

The author is missing the point. Did the Packers experience a drop in attendance in 2017? Are merchandize sales declining? Has anyone objected to the Titletown District? Or is it business as usual at 1265?

The Packers Corporation is principally concerned about making big money these not competing for Lombardis. There is no sense of urgency in Green Bay to get to another Super Bowl. None.

Expect Murphy, Thompson, McCarthy, Capers and all the rest of the gang all to be back in 2018 and expect the loyal fans to be rewarded with more of the same.

After all, not changing a DAMN thing has worked pretty well when it comes to revenues for the last 7 years, why alter that approach now? Especially when it might cost the team some cash to buy out the longest tenured GM in the NFL.

Rinse, repeat, spit.

4thand1's picture

I gave you a dislike because you are right. sorry

Tarynfor12's picture

How many times will this movie be remade. Call it what you will but since the murderous end of 2011 in Jan 2012 it demanded 'A New Hope' in 13', 14', 15', 16' and now again in 17'. Which has offered nothing new but glimmers of the hope at varying moments in the movie, which all fail to be realized in actuality.

Fear not you fans of binge watching the ' Hope ' series. Another movie will be coming to you at July's end in 18'.

The Producers and Director's are set with possible change, though slim, and some characters may or may not return but there will be a casting call and surely they will find someone or two from that huge UDFA portfolio to inspire the veterans to show up and even make one appear as a ' must sign ' just because there is no one else and hands are tied. Where would any of these movies be without that guy, right?

The Kool-Aid stand is now open. : )

The TKstinator's picture

Ha! (Kool Aid stand, good one! I like it.)
Likewise there are plenty of sweet seats available on the Worry Bus.
Can I get an “amen”?

Razer's picture

But I might cancel my cable - nah - I'll be back hoping for a better outcome.

Good one.

canadapacker's picture

I am not one of the big anti this anti that commenters that frequent this site - nor that frequents some of the GB press. When this team gets eliminated later tonight, it will be the first time in 8 years that the post season will be for other teams. Wonder how many other teams have not even made the playoffs over that period or have only made it once. But maybe this is the time for the organization to have a reload. If there is a complaint to be had from the TT and MM era is that while be put a lot of managerial people into the league, MM's coaching tree is less than successful Philbin, MacAdoo, and to certain extent Clements have not faired well in their promotions and nobody else is a shining star. While it doesnt seem to effect the offense ( because AR makes everybody around him better) the defense seems lost. We all know that injuries are a big factor but the total lack of meanness and an unwillingness to tackle has been quite obvious on the defensive side of the ball. You got to get your nose dirty to get things done. I also am critical of TT's unwillingness to pay fair market value too many times - we have poor Olinemen ( Spriggs) and have brought in other lineman (McCray) and the NFL is full of exPacker lineman playing well. The same can be said of getting rid of Hyde and Hayward and Cook.

But the time is now for Capers to retire. I think that the pieces are there to upgrade the defense and maybe by getting Matthews and Perry to take pay cuts we might get a free agent - but we need to spend a lot of draft picks on the defensive side after resigning Adams. But we need a young and energetic group coaching the D as Moss Perry and Capers are not getting it done.

Nick Perry's picture

Perry isn't taking a pay cut, next season is the season he REALLY starts getting paid. Compared to next year this seasons price tag for Perry will seem like a 99 cent store bargain.

Myself and a few others (We know who we are) have been adamant about our feelings concerning Ted Thompson. The Packers NEED a lot of changes to really compete for a SB. History has showed us Thompson is not the type of GM who's going to make a ton of changes. He'll be happy with Rodgers carrying the WHOLE organization, players, coaches, and management and be happy with a playoff appearance.

I hate the Vikings more than the Bears or any other team in the NFL for that matter but right now Rick Spielman is the best GM in the NFC North and it's not even close. The Vikings had one of the worst O-Lines in football last season and with two FA signings and a rookie center who most didn't think would help, they now have one of the best. They have a 5th round WR and an UDFA who are scaring the hell out of DC's and SHREDDING Capers defense every time they play.
The defense is mostly built from the draft with a few FA additions along the way. Thompson SHOULD have taken Kendricks and he missed out on my draft crush (Hunter) just a few years ago.

The Packers have Rodgers under contract for 2 more seasons. I suppose they could franchise him if he refused to sign after 2019 but my point is TIME IS RUNNING OUT. The chances of finding another QB who can cover the many weaknesses on this team, coaching staff, and front office are slim. I'm TIRED of all the excuses everybody makes for Thompson. For the first time media outlets EVERYWHERE are getting on the same page, the Packers NEED a new GM because history tells us Thompson can't/won't make the necessary changes that need to be made.

Jamie Freier's picture

My draft crush this year is Arden Key.

billybobton's picture

the only other team with a QB like Rodgers WILL make the playoffs again and probably WILL get to another super bowl

stop whining like a bear fan or cleveland fan the most vital piece is in place and it is being wasted

nostradanus's picture

Sometimes being too close to the problem makes it hard to see the "forest for the trees". McCarthy has done this in the past with Ed Donetel and Slocum the Special Teams coach and now of course the embattled Dom Capers who should have felt the axe 5 years ago. We could all see it but the excuses just kept coming and the putrid Defensive display was allowed to continue. Have the Packers stopped anyone on third down this year?
Have the Packers stopped any screen passes this year?
Opposing offenses have a 100% scoring rate when in the Packers Red Zone 100% really? Do these Defensive players look like they buy into Capers scheme? Just look at the curious case of Clinton Dix as an example, a pro-bowl safety, where has he been? Does he look like he cares?
Opposing receivers running wide open in the secondary with nary a Packers defender in sight. Blown coverages, blown assignments, untimely penalties, undisciplined play, missed tackles, 12 men on the field, 10 men on the field, wasted time outs. Pathetic! FIRE DOM CAPERS!
Thank you for listening my cheesy friends, now I feel better.

dnicholson's picture

For what it's worth, Sherman was the one to fire Donatell.

dobber's picture

Yep...the name he wanted was Bob Sanders.

jpar's picture

You are right on the money!

badaxed's picture

you are spot on about the defense. pathetic is the only word that comes to mind. Time to Clean house. fire all these coaches. start new. someone has to be accountable for the shoddy performance of this team. Ultimately it is the head coach and general manager who supply the coaching and talent. Also the president "Howdy Doody" has not made one football decision since he arrived. but the packer mall is doing well. ironic when malls across America are dying "Howdy Doody" is more into this than winning.

Now that the packer are out of the playoffs they are physically and mentally shutting down.

As Lombardi said Winners never quit and quitters never win. This team quit the day Rogers was hurt and the pathetic coaches and leadership of the packers did a p**s poor job of supplementing this team with coaching and quality players.

"I hear the train a comin'; it's rollin' 'round the bend,
And I ain't seen the sunshine since I don't know when"

I'm stuck at losing seasons and time keeps draggin' on
But that train keeps rollin' on down to Lambeau field"

Hopefully the train will leave the station with MM/TT/MM/DC and the rest of the worthless losers on it.

Bearmeat's picture

Put simply: if Dom Capers is the defensive coordinator for The Green Bay Packers in 2018, there will not be a super bowl title and there may not be a NFCN title. The same is true for our GM, but to a lesser extent.

I will still watch the games. But I did not expect to contend this year because I KNEW the pass rush would kill the team and Capers would not be able to adjust. And I knew we were in trouble the minute the draft finished in May. So I am done hoping this franchise, with it's current leadership, will contend for Lombardi #5. Even when Zeus is at QB.

It makes the inevitable letdown less painful.

badaxed's picture

"Capers has survived despite coordinating a defense that in 2012 gave up 181 yards rushing to Colin Kaepernick in a playoff game, in 2014 collapsed in the NFC Championship Game at Seattle, in 2015 couldn’t stop Larry Fitzgerald in an overtime playoff loss, and last season got exposed by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in the NFC title game loss at Atlanta"

"No accountability in this system. time for change.

stockholder's picture

I don't feel the way some of you do about Adams. But Davis hit was mind blowing to me. 2 weeks is not enough. We see this year after year. The opponent tries to take out our guys. I'm tired of the cheap hits. Twice on Adams this year. It's time to do the same to the vikings. End their super- bowl hopes! I'm calling for cheap shots on the Carr. Even the safeties. Low knee shots work wonders. Anything to wreck them . The concussions have arrived. Give one to Thelen. Forget the game . Just hurt somebody now. Forget the draft. Forget the sportsmanship. It's time to Get even! Hit somebody even if it's wrong.

stockholder's picture

Ok now that I got that off my mind. Let's stop drafting guys for the 3-4-4. It's Rush the QB in the NFL. Now. The OL will be better next year. The Cbs will be better next year. The safeties will be better next year. But we still need more on that. 1. Capers and company should go. The only way to set the bar higher is to start with the coaches. They had their chance. Forget the offense. Flat out forget the offense. Your not going to get a weapon that runs routes. Your going to get a project. We need a new breed of Rushers. Not just Mathews. Or perry. If they can't get to the QB don't draft them. Clark and Daniels supply the beef. But we need steers. Bulls at DE. Shove that 3-4-4 up Capers butt, as he's shown the door. The new defense is 9 Man.

Tarynfor12's picture

If Aaron Rodgers wants another SB win...he should demand a trade to the Browns...they have what he needs...a defense....ready and more able than anything thrown together in Green Bay.

mrj007's picture

Denver probably will go all out for Rodgers but the Packers won't be stupid enough to fail signing their cash cow will they? Tge teams own demonstrated incompetence is going to force them to pay about $30M a year to keep Rodgers. This will kill the cap and ruin any chance to change. Only chance we have is hitting on young draft players and trying to develop. But too many misses already have emptied the cupboards. 8 and 8 next year seems likely

al bundy's picture

I also posted to me with Rogers, quality of talent, plus Vikes aren't two sure wins and bears either, this is an 8-8 team. It is what it is. Jordy lost his top speed and is becoming a non factor too.

al bundy's picture

Analyst are mirroring your sentiment, if the
Rogers wants that second third Superbowl for his legacy, he needs to move on. He will be to old byhthr time the pack have that kind of talent.

dobber's picture

New Orleans did it in one off-season.

HankScorpio's picture

His only option to "move on" is to move on from playing football, which will severely limit his chances of winning another SB.

If he plays, he'll play as a Packer. For at least 4 more years. Assuming the Packers want to retain him...which seems rather likely.

dobber's picture

Hank, you and I have to have this general response on a post-it to copy and paste with how often people keep spouting this line of thought without really thinking about the situation.

Ruppert's picture

Great posts regarding how it seems the execs are more concerned about revenue than anything else. The motion picture metaphor was very well done. I still maintain Thompson's stubborn talent acquisition policy has a lot to do with the bad defense, but I'm ready for Dom to hit the beach, too. I can't help but wonder if the execs who love to count pennies influence Thompson's stance on free agency. We will never know. I do know that it was consistently painful to watch this defensive unit game after game and frankly year after year. Since 2010--zero top 10 defenses in points OR yardage. Zero. High of 11 for both. Seriously, at what point will there be any kind of change?

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

The only problem is of course that those posters who think GB execs are all about being tightwads are just completely wrong on the facts, and not a few of them are unhinged. All such posts are bereft of any dollar amounts and assume facts that are simply not true. I can post long comments showing that GB has in fact spent 99.01% of the cap in 2016 and are currently at just over 97% of the cap for 2017, a percentage that will probably increase when the final reckoning is done after the season, but to little avail since it won't fit on a bumper sticker.

MM is one of the highest paid HCs in the NFL. Capers is one of the highest paid DCs. TT is highly paid. Guessing Edgar Bennett isn't, but that is fairly common where the HC is the real coordinator. GB could fire these guys and save maybe $7M per year if they hired up and comers to replace them. Since GB spends nearly every nickel it is allowed to spend on players, does it really matter if TT wastes the money on UFAs or if he wastes the money re-signing our own players to 2nd contracts?

badaxed's picture

If this is what we get for "highly paid executives" it is time to cut the apron strings and let these incompetent people go.

Since '61's picture

There is not much I can add to what I and others have already posted about the Packers and the premature end of yet another disappointing season. However not only am I disappointed with the Packers season, the combination of a futile defense and consistently incompetent and ridiculous officiating has made the games unwatchable.

What is the point of watching games when the league and their officials don't even know what the rules are? Every week in several games, game changing penalties or rulings change the final result. This is unfair to the players and the fans.
Yesterday as an example, the Panthers receiver was out of bounds when he secured the football for a catch, yet the play was ruled a TD.

A few hours later in the Pats /Steelers game the Steeler receiver caught a pass went down on one knee and stretched the ball over the goal line (a football move) scoring the game winning TD for the Steelers. However after a booth review the pass was ruled incomplete because the ball touched ground after the receiver broke the plain of the goal line. That ruling makes no sense since the receiver secured the ball, made a football move and broke the plain. Once the plain is broken the play is over and the clock stops. Needless to say the Pats won the game as a result of another absurd call by incompetent
officiating, ruining what should have been a great ending to a very exciting game and having an impact on post-season seeding.

The league has created a watered down product with inconsistent and unreliable officiating. How can a winner of a championship or even a game be considered legitimate in this league?

As for the Packers if they won't or can't make the changes to effectively compete against the elite teams in the league during this off-season they will continue to fall in the standings and Rodgers, if he is as smart as I think he is, will sign with a team that is willing to spend the money and do what it takes to support his abilities with championship caliber players on the offense and defense. Thanks, Since '61

Johnblood27's picture

I feel your pain.

I have all but given up repeating the same points.

I prefer to try to find some humor in there somewhere these days.


dobber's picture

I'll be honest: based on recent precedent, that clearly was NOT a catch. First off, he didn't land on his ass....

Seriously, the player caught and in one motion went to the end zone as he was going to the ground. He needed to control the ball through the process of going to the ground, which he didn't do because it popped out when it hit the ground. It was Dez Bryant all over again, but more clear. I thought that one--based on how similar plays have been called--was clearly a no-catch. I don't say I agree with it, but it was a no-catch.

GeorgiaCheesehead's picture

This is the first year I am seeing about 75% of posters call for a total regime change. Used to be about 50/50. I have been calling for It since 2011. I have always though he was way overrated. MM is average. DC is stale. Time to go bye bye. Maybe this is the year....,

mrj007's picture

I would love it if Jon Gruden were the next Packers coach. As had been stated, I think there is a reason the McCarthy coaching tree has not produced fruit... But I think you have to give him the dual GM/coach role to make it a reality. I would also hope for Packers to start drafting players who don't have injury histories. And for the love of God please get a TE who can stretch a defense and a decent pass rusher!

Since '61's picture

You won't see Gruden, Cowher, Mariucci or Dungy come out of the booth to return to the field. They have the best jobs in sports. They're still close to the games, the players and the coaches. They work a normal week and enjoy a relaxed and restful off-season. They make good money and have much less responsibilities plus they still do endorsements. Why would they go back to 7 day work weeks during the season, probably about 15 hours days plus the draft, OTAs, training camp, and pre-season games during the off-season. They are lucky if they get a month off during the year.
They are too smart for that and too well-paid. Plus they have all been away from the game at least 3 or more years. They have nothing to prove and everything to lose. Won't happen. Of all those former coaches I would prefer Dungy but he won't return to the field either. He knows he has it made where he is. Thanks, since '61

mrj007's picture

Well then someone Dungy or Gruden-LIKE who might be hungry enougg to endure the grind... But some changes are required so the defense isn't a constant liability. Without that, the team just won't compete against quality opponents.

badaxed's picture


Thegreatreynoldo's picture

"Maybe this year, we'll be lucky. Maybe this year they'll leave...."

GeorgiaCheesehead's picture

Watching the packers panthers game reminded me of why I loath TT. And brougyback memories of the 2007 draft. We took Justin Harrell with the 16th pick. The bears drafted Greg Olsen at 31.

Johnblood27's picture

The Packers had Revis name on the card ready to submit it, then the Jets swept in and stole him.

My how the future changed right there.

Since '61's picture

Very true and very unfortunate for the Packers. Thanks, Since '61

Razer's picture

...We took Justin Harrell with the 16th pick. The bears drafted Greg Olsen at 31...

Thanks for ruining my day - arrrrrgh

stockholder's picture

For Nick's Fire on TT: TJ Watt= He currently has totalled 74 tacks with 6 sacks, 1 FF and 1 interception.

Johnblood27's picture

... and the player who "made" him at UW?

Snoopy Beagle?

4thand1's picture


Doug Niemczynski's picture

That's meanie poo !!

Doug Niemczynski's picture

That's meanie poo !!

al bundy's picture

Let's see, Rollins has a history of injuries, belaga, ditto, king, big time shoulder problems. Point is, you've got an army of guys on this team breaking down over and over. Randle, in and out, Mathews, Perry on the bench more than field.
You can't be a contender with the in consistencies injuries cause. O line a patchwork again. Funny the lineman who went to Chicago and Lacy, out most of this year on other teams.
With Rogers this is an 8-8 team at best, the Vikes are no longer two sure wins.

Johnblood27's picture


Draft and develop means heavy development not only of drafted players but also of the udfa's that stick.

This makes the bottom of the roster a development team and not necessarily replacement quality players needed to survive an NFL seasons bumps, bruises and breaks.

It takes 50 of the 53 to have the depth needed.

Using more than 2-4 spots strictly for "potential" "developmental" players in addition to the practice squad guys creates a real strain on the "playable" members of the 53.

This is my interpretation of the weakness of the D&D philosophy when it is carried beyond a few guys at the bottom of the roster.

The first 45-50 need to be starters and mid-tier vets as backups, the players that have proven themselves and can play and not embarrass the team or provide easy targets for opponents. There can be some young, 1-2 yr, players that are obviously going to become better than average among this 50 to provide the youth needed to restock over time, but the influx of 12-15 udfa/low level/low current quality/"potential" players dooms season accomplishment when the injury bug comes and it ALWAYS bites in todays NFL.

The farm system is gone,, NCAA isnt it, too many players in the same pool and detecting those that will rise above the rabble is obviously not readily apparent by the low success rate of the draft.

Teams can maintain mediocrity by using more of their roster on development, but that comes at the expense of winning in the face of attrition NOW.

Sound familiar?

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I don't think this plan is reasonably viable. I don't think a team can have 45 to 50 starters and mid-tier vets on the roster under a cap system.

37 of the 53 guys on the roster are on rookie deals. 22 of them were draft picks, and 15 were UDFAs.

15 rookie deal UDFA developmental guys: Michael Clark, Kerridge, Brown, Whitehead, Pankey, Patrick, McCray, Odoms, Pipkens, Mays, Ulrick John, Marwin Evans, Allison, and Hawkins. Brice as well, though he is on IR.

3 drafted developmental guys: M Adams, Biegel, Mays. You could argue Spriggs, Fackrell, Davis, Janis, Ryan, and Lowry, but we are getting snaps and some of them have definite roles that they're decent or good at anyway. I don't think King and Jones really qualify since they were starters or a reasonable facsimile.

Veterans - mid tier: Dial ($775K), Evans ($2.4M), House ($2.8M), Brooks ($3.5M) and Lane Taylor ($4.6M). RJF would qualify at about $2M, but he was cut. Their salaries average $2.67M. [Edit: forgot Kendricks at $2M.]

15 + 3 = 18, and there are 9 more I really don't want on the field when it matters, for a total of 27 developmental guys on our team. If I can only have 3 developmental guys, I need to replace somewhere between 15 and 24 guys with mid-tier veterans. That is $40.05M to $64.08M in needed additional cap space. If I can keep 8 developmental prospects, that is somewhat better, but I still need to replace 10 to 19 players, at a cap space cost of $26.70M to $50.73M.

HankScorpio's picture

(all numbers are rough): The salary cap is about $170 mil, That comes to approximately $3 mil/player. You can roster 53 guys like Kendricks, House, Brooks and Evans or you can pay stars big $$ and count on rookie deals to fill in the roster.

Is there anyone that thinks 53 guys at the level of Kendricks, House, Brooks and Evans are going to do anything but compete for the #1 draft pick?

Doug Niemczynski's picture

I Love dom capers. Why would we get rid of him? He is the best and most experienced DC ever...Give him a break...DOM. .DOM..DOM....But past history should not dictate the right decision to keep THE DOM !!
Who else will the packers get there is no one ....

UmpireMark's picture

Dave Aranda, formerly of the Badgers, now with LSU. A disciple from the defensive coaching trees of Pitt or Jax. Stop retreading old school NFL has beens.

Someone that runs a 3-4 base and can perform from that base, at a high level. Screw the schemes and ninja, nitro, one d-lineman joke line ups.

UmpireMark's picture

Obviously, there is little to add, as most have eloquently stated cases for major changes in 2018.

I will only reiterate that since the SB win in 2010, some colossal fail on the part of the defense has ended every season. Every one. Injuries, undrafted free agent starters and "schemes" are deficits, indeed. But the simple answer is that the modern game of today has passed by Capers.

As far as Ted, I will use an example from this season, to illustrate his issues from the beginning. When it was decided to shut down King in lieu of surgery (maybe 3 weeks too late) Ted replaced him on the roster with Goodson who has not played a down. He's still hurt. All year long we've kept 8 WR's on the roster. Cut Janis or Davis and get a CB, Ted! A healthy human being is more valuable than a one legged Goodson.

Simply put, Mike has lost his effectiveness. Teams know our plays. He doesn't change, of the mind that if you just execute what I called, it should work. Like Dom, the game has changed in the 10 years Mike has coached. Sadly, he has not adjusted.

Guess I had more to say than I thought! Sorry

Handsback's picture

Green Bay wins the SB, fully loaded for several runs....Collins goes down. Took HHCD in 1st round to get even close to replacing him. Bishop goes down, it's taken until Martinez 2nd year to really replace him. Raji retires, Woodson retired, Thurman loses a step and Shields goes down.

Look at New England and they replace their 2-3 rd tier guys all the time, but they don't mess with the core guys. Green Bay doesn't have their core guys on defense anymore except for CMIII and he's half of what he was that season.

I hear a lot of complaining, but don't hear how you replace two HOF Dbs, an elite pass rusher, an All Pro NT, a shutdown young CB, a solid MLB and keep all the other positions in check? And by the way keep your defense in the top 10 with 7 years of draft picks to replace these guys? I'm sorry I don't like this season either but circumstances count when TT and DC try to fix 25 leaks with 20 fingers.
DC isn't the best guy to run a pressure defense, but might be the best Green Bay can hire. Like FA isn't good for Green Bay, may be the same for the coaches.

UmpireMark's picture

Not replacing 25 guys. Sorry. Most of the last 5-6 drafts have been on defense. Where are these guys today?

Handsback's picture

I think you get the point I was trying to make.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

Who the hell was the all-pro NT? Raji = 1 pro bowl.
Who the hell was the elite pass rusher?
1 HOF DB got old. It was foreseeable.
I'll give you the other HOF DB, but he'd be old now.
Tramon lost a step. Yeah, that happens to players.
Our GM really can't replace a solid MLB?
Peppers wasn't an elite pass rusher, and was a rental.

So, I'll tell you how to replace these guys. Spend 71.4% of your first through 4th round draft picks since the 2012 draft on defense. That includes 5 of 5 first rounders, 5 of 8 second rounders, 3 of 5 third rounders, and 7 of 10 fourth rounders. Total is 20 of 27.

What do we have to show for it? Daniels and Clark are good. Perry, Dix and Martinez are okay (sorta). Jury is out on King and Josh Jones.

Want to do more? 3 of 9 fifth rounders (none on the team now), 3 of 7 sixth rounders (Goodson is still with us: God only knows why), and 1 of 8 seventh rounders (none still with us). 7 more defensive picks with only Goodson to show for it. [TT has never drafted an average player in the 6th or 7th round. Ever. You could argue Starks and Jolly (just for 2008 and '09). He has a couple in round 5 in Linsley, Hyde, stretching for Boyd or Newhouse.]

The resources devoted to defense have been generous over the last six %#%# drafts.

Handsback's picture

That's right, Raji was All pro that year. haven't had a NT, including Raji to take his place since that year. To compare, NE had an All Pro NT for several years before they traded him to the Texans.
CMIII was Green Bay's elite pass rusher. Perry has never stepped up and CMIII has regressed over the years. To compare, NE has always had a very dangerous edge rusher or two. This is the one spot where you can point to TT and ask why?
Woodson got old, yes. But before he got old Green Bay has to replace not just him, but also Collins. My point is you always have to replace worn out players. TT not only has to replace the worn out guys, but also those who have career ending injuries and a sudden drop off of performance. How many teams lost a possible HOF FS like Collins and a few years later a young All Pro CB? Not many.... He might be able to fix the normal replacement rotation of players and maybe the guys who's performance dropped off the map. He didn't have enough picks or to fix the essentals. That's why he reached/double drafted/ and took risks on some players that he thought could make up the difference. It didn't work and he wasn't able to use FA to fill the gap.
TT has made mistakes, but he's no miracle worker!

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

Ah, CM3 was an elite pass rusher. You are correct. Collins is the one that hurt. He would have been real good for several more years and have made everyone around him better. He would be retired by now most likely, though. Woodson never even got an offer from TT. Self inflicted wound there. Woodson had one very good year and two pretty good years 2013 through 2015, and would have been better than what we had. We didn't have to lose both of our safeties. I googled Raji. He never was an all pro. He had one pro bowl in 2011. No big deal. I always thought Raji was immensely talented, but he just didn't love football.

HankScorpio's picture

Cutting Woodson was not a mistake. His salary was based on him being an elite CB and he had moved to Safety. But it was a huge mistake to not ask him if he was open to a pay cut. He has said several times that he would have been open to those discussions. That makes you absolutely correct that it was a huge self-inflicted wound. The result was a 2nd year of MD Jennings at starting Safety.

Of course, they also had a rookie named Micah Hyde that could have started at Safety. But Capers doesn't roll with rookie starters. So there was salt poured into that self-inflicted wound.

That they never even approached Woodson about a pay cut makes me wonder if they would open such discussions with Nelson and/or Cobb, as many have suggested. They did the same thing with Sitton...just cutting him outright rather than asking him to take less. I'm not sure I can recall an example of the Packers asking a player to take a straight pay cut since TT became GM.

Rossonero's picture

The defense will only get worse if they let our QB of the defense, Morgan Burnett go. Good God it's going to be ugly without him. He will be a free agent in 2018.

But don't worry -- he'll go to an NFC rival and we'll be having to watch him flourish for years. After all, safeties can play well into their 30s....but I can't see Ted willing to pay Burnett -- no way. Don't fear though, we'll get a nice comp pick that may or may not pan out after 3-4 year wait. By then, Rodgers will be 40 and we'll be on here discussing his imminent retirement.

dobber's picture

I really like Burnett, I really do. But this defense can be bottom of the league with him or bottom of the league without him. I don't think his resigning leads the resurgence of this defense.

Ultimately, they need to find someone who can build this defense into being more than just the sum of its disparate parts. We've seen too many years of a defense that plays as less than the sum of its parts.

Finwiz's picture

I'm going to continue the parroting I started last week with Bearmeat, and say - E-X-A-C-T-L-Y!!
I grow weary of expressing what will most likely never come to pass, so I limit my words.
Lot's of people around here that appear to be the definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results.
Not going to be my modus operandi.

HankScorpio's picture

"Lot's of people around here that appear to be the definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results."

Who? Some want a complete overhaul of everything and some want a more targeted change. But few or none are supporting status quo to my observation. I'm curious who you are seeing to prompt the words "lots of people".

Rossonero's picture

The essence of leadership is managing change. It's painfully obvious that our NFC rivals did far better at managing change (esp. the Rams) than we did. Sure, Ted tried to dip his toe into free agency and I'll give him credit for trying -- we needed depth guys like Quentin Dial, Ahmad Brooks, Ricky Jean-Francois, etc. -- but ultimately, it failed.

Managing change involves making hard decisions. The status quo is unacceptable. Capers must go and it's Mike Trgovac's time to take the D-coodinator reigns (at least he's the most logical candidate give in his past D-coordinator experience).

What's most frustrating to me is every season is eerily the same: we dig ourselves a massive hole, have to "run the table" every year to have any chance, our defense ranks in the bottom of the league in every major category, we have a TON of injuries all over the place, etc. Rodgers has got to be frustrated out of his mind.

To top it off, we have an injury prone pass rusher (Nick Perry) and an aging one who really should be playing ILB (Clay Matthews). I don't know what else to say, I'd rather go get some sleep than worry about this lame team.

Samson's picture

Love this thread!!
Everyone expressing their anger.
Don't really disagree with anyone.
However, what you see & feel has (in reality) existed for the last seven seasons. The G&G glasses have protected many of you. -- Too bad, now it hurts.
AR is 34 and probably has 4-6 seasons (barring injury) of superior QB play left in him (a la Brady).
THAT TIME will also be wasted if the hierarchy in GB remains the same.
Thank you. -- Since "60.

Doug Niemczynski's picture

Its getting about time we're going to have to draft another quarterback soon.. we're going to have to start thinking about Aaron Rodgers replacement and all the Wasted Years so we can go get another great quarterback and waste his years that's about the only thing we do really good in Greenbay get really good quarterbacks and then waste their years.

pacman's picture

Wish list - they all go - Murphy, TT, MM & DC. We don't know the inner workings but they are all intertwined.

Prediction - TT and DC go. Murphy, MM stay.

Though I don't discount the possibility of MM resigning on his own. After all, he's "a very successful NFL coach." I won't miss him.

4thand1's picture

It's official, Falcons won, it's over. Play Hundley, move up in the draft in few spots. Rewatched the last game, AR was taking chances he normally doesn't take, trying to make big plays. He had to, it was the teams only chance to pull out a win and he knew it. Hope they have the brains to sit him the next 2 games.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I don't think he had to take those chances. Instead of passing 81.4% of the snaps and running just 18.6%, we could have done a lot of things differently and better.

croatpackfan's picture

I'm asking myself one question - what this team would looks like if GM would listen fans...

Browns would look like SB contender to that Green Bay team...

Hello, experts. If you are sure in your football knowledge, I'm sure there is the path you can prove yourself. And that path will bring lot of wealth, if you will achieve success...

I wonder why no one from this group of talented experts (from this comment section) did not take that path...

P. S. I'm not defending anyone - not Capers, not Thompson, not Mike McCarthy... I just try to understand why anybody would like to fire Mike McCarthy - you are giving our opponents second best active coach in NFL to their disposal... So, if you can prove that you are better, please be my guest...

Tundraboy's picture

2nd best active coach? Lmfao.

badaxed's picture

Mc fathead the second best coach.................LOLLOLOLOLOL...........

dobber's picture

"There’s good luck, bad luck and—to quote Aaron Sorkin’s script for Moneyball—“Then there’s 50 feet of crap. And then there’s us.” "

Actually, Friends beat Moneyball to this by about 10 years.'s sad that I know that.

Doug Niemczynski's picture

We actually may have to draft a quarterback in the first round this year I mean Aaron Rodgers is 34 years old and time's ticking down he only has four five six years maybe so and we may never get as high of draft pick again so we might have to draft a quarterback guys I know it was kind of a little shock from me when we drafted Aaron Rodgers back in the day so we may have to do the same thing this year I know we have tons of other knees as we usually do but it's going to take 3 4 years just to learn the West Coast offense and things like that I don't know if Hunley is the guy I really don't know what's going on but I do know we have all these issues because we were supposed to get rid of Dom Capers years ago people years ago and now look what we have now just a freaking mess he was supposed to be gone by 2012 that was 5 years ago 5 years ago our system would have been different we would have been drafting different people attitudes would have been different so much I goes into it and now we're just starting all over from scratch with an elder older quarterback absolute joke and now the Minnesota Vikings are on the rise and we may never recover

dobber's picture

Santa brought you these for an early Christmas:

. ! ? , . . , ? ! . .

The TKstinator's picture

Hey dobber, check out my work in the “Pro Bowl Snubs” thread.

dobber's picture

I would ask how long it took you to write that, but I don't think I want to know!

The TKstinator's picture

About 15 seconds.

MemphisMike's picture

IMO. The current state of the Packers is neither as bad nor as good as what's being said by media and fans. The notion of a scorch the earth approach by firing everyone is lunacy. However, the stand pat and continue forward with the same group is doomed. A change must be made in key areas but all is not bad with our franchise.
Before anything, I believe a change at GM is a must. While I've never agreed with TTs 100% dedication to the D and D approach, he has some solid talent on this team. My problems w TT is he doesn't "bid" on critical positional players that he drafts. Letting Heyward walk and holding onto multiple concussed Shields was a move the Packers are still reeling from. That was a flat out bad decision by TT that cost the Packers dearly. Since not resigning Heyward, TT has drafted 3 CBs in the top 2 rounds, blown a legit Super Bowl run bc we had to depend on a UFA CB w 4.6 speed to handle Julio Jones and this trend continues to hurt them this season ala any game against a quality QB.
In turn, TT invested millions in one year wonder Nick Perry who to date will be paid about $10M for every sack he's had this year.
I'll never fault TT for his change in character in dealing w FA market his season. I was as excited as most everyone else at the TE signings. I also liked the Evans signing although some argue that we should have paid Lang his money to stay, D and D, right? But this newfound FA approach is just too little too late. I held hope that he would have learned from his great signing of CWood that help bring us a SB. But for years TT has ignored this FA player market resource by relying solely on his expert knowledge of the college draft. However, in order for this draft only philosophy to succeed, it would require that he hit on every player in each years draft. Time has shown us that this has obviously not happened. The Packers for years lacked knowledgeable veterans and were left with a locker room filled with inexperienced youth. The NFL has two resources for teams to develop a roster: the college draft and player free agency. While all other teams used both these for player acquisitions, TT refused to take advantage of both resources and only used 50% of the tools he had to build a team. His misguided arrogance or lack of assuming any kind of risk cost the team for years and this continues to be the case in Week 16 2017. Earlier this season prior to the trade deadline the Packers were stressed with injuries at CB, King was never 100%, Rollins was out and House was continually nicked up. TT stood firm and left the Packers w a one armed rookie, a hot/cold CB and UFA signings to handle backfield duties. With zero pass rush, the bulk of responsibility landed on our woefully undermanned DBs. We all saw this coming, yet TT made no offers or moves to bring in much needed help. Should anyone be surprised by the end result? His delusional pursuit of finding the next needle in a haystack UFA WR convert into Pro Bowl CB Sam Shields (his roster handling is another issue) has always been an issue. Chasing windmills.
Ron Wolf understood how to work the NFL system. His approach to both draft and sign FAs to keep the roster fresh and deep spoke for itself. A solid mix of vets and youth kept the Packers solid on both sides of the football. It wasn't always up to #4 to pull out victories. Two of Wolf's all time best moves, HOF Super Bowl champion players were originally drafted by other teams. High risk, high reward. Gutsy move.
Ultimately the obvious is that the Packers are only as good as the players they roster. Which means this Packers team approaches being good with a couple of arguably very good players and one first ballot great player. TTs lack of action to backfill the roster with stronger, better, more experienced positional players stresses the coaching staff and limits the teams overall production. I have always had a hard time believing we could not have signed better players than what we pulled up from our practice squad?
As a fan, I can voice my opinion. Some can agree and others will not.
My opinion is that TT has served the team long enough. We need to have a new player strategy for 2018. One that doesn't dedicate itself to a singular minded approach that goes completely dark after final cutdown before Week 1. The Packers need a GM who sees the talent we have, recognizes player deficiencies, values the importance of roster depth with both experience and youth, utilizes all the market tools given ( including cap space) and is willing to take some risk. Unfortunately, none of this describes TT. It's time to move on, #12 and fans deserve better.

badaxed's picture

I hear the train a comin'
It's rollin' 'round the bend
And I ain't seen the sunshine
Since, I don't know when
I'm stuck with packers losing
And time keeps draggin' on
But that train keeps a-rollin'
On down to Lambeau field
When I was just a baby
My Mama told me, "Son
Always be a good boy
Don't ever root for bears"
But I put my hopes in green bay
Just to watch them die
When I hear that whistle blowin'
I hang my head and cry
I bet McCarthy's eatin'
From a fancy dining car
They're probably drinkin' coffee
And smokin' big cigars
Well, I know I had it comin'
I know I can't be free
But those people keep a-losing'
And that's what tortures me
Well, if they freed me from these losers
If that railroad train was mine
I bet I'd move em all a little
Farther down the line

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"I firmly believe that any man’s finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle – victorious."
"The Bears still suck!"
"A school without football is in danger of deteriorating into a medieval study hall. "