WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

The Patriots offense was inconsistent with Mac Jones. Without him, they may have a very difficult time moving at all.

On the passing attack, the Patriots threw for solid yardage, getting nearly 250 yards per game, but much of it was scrambling to come from behind and they had only 2 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.

The run game has a been their consistent segment, where Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson form a high-quality rushing duo. As a pair, they average 4.8 yards per carry. However, they don't look capable of carrying a one-dimensional offense if backup quarterback Brian Hoyer can't get anything moving.

And there's no reason to believe Hoyer, a near 37 year-old career backup, will be able to get anything going.

The Packers may be missing Jaire Alexander (listed as questionable), but the trio of Rasul Douglas, Eric Stokes, and Keisean Nixon absolutely smothered the Buccaneers last week (even if they were missing some guys). We should expect a lot of tight coverage this week to limit the passing game and strong play from the box, maybe even with a safety close to the line.

The Packers defense should look at this as a chance to make a highlight film.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Last week, the Packers stuck with the short game, riding a low-average run game and a quick hit passing attack to grind out a tough road win against a great defense.

This week, they don't face the same caliber of talent on defense, but Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind. Throughout his career, Belichick has built his defense around taking away what opposing offenses do best. Last year, Belichick would have targeted Davante Adams as the person to take away.

This year, without Davante Adams, the Packers are a team with no easy-to-identify target that, if nullified, would debilitate the offense.

That is the strength of the LaFleur approach: having a balanced attack where defenses can't anticipate what is coming.

And he'll have the healthiest team he's had all year to build that attack - David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are good to go, as is Christian Watson. 

The offense can stick to the short game they fine-tuned last week or work deeper routes with Watson opening up coverage. And of course, the Packers should be able to run effectively with AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones. The Patriots will be missing defensive line mainstay Lawrence Guy because of his shoulder injury, making for easier sledding.

The Packers have a talent mismatch, but need to be wary of a brilliant gameplan by one of the greatest defensive coaches of this era.

OTHER NOTES

• Packers special teams is 14th in DVOA in the NFL - I'm not huge on those kind of metrics, but it screams volumes
• The Patriots have turned the ball over 8 times in 3 games 
• Brian Hoyer's real first name is Axel

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Packers have very little to worry about here.

The only thing that can let them down is a lack of energy. With David Bakhtiari making his first home appearance in years, I expect the stadium to be rocking and the team ready to steamroll a hopelessly overmatched opponent.

With special teams and defense both clicking, the offense can get on track here and make this a laugher.

Packers 31, Patriots 6