Packers vs. Panthers: 5 Things to Watch and a Prediction

Five things to watch and a prediction for when the Packers take on the Panthers in Week 7. 

Fresh off a come-from-behind win in the Florida sun, the Green Bay Packers (4-2) will return home to welcome the visiting Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) to Lambeau Field for a Week 7 matchup. 

Here's five things to watch and a prediction:

 

1. Clay's Comeback

Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews has just two multi-sack games over his last 27, which is a shockingly low total given his immense pass-rushing ability. Green Bay would be fine with just one Sunday. Dating back to Thanksgiving of last year, or a span of 10 games, Matthews has delivered only 2.5 sacks, including a single sack in 2014.

The pressures are still there—Matthews has 18, while Julius Peppers has 19—but you'd expect such an accomplished finisher to start a season better, especially when he's previously burst out of the gates with six sacks in both 2010 and 2012. Six games certainly do not make a season, but the Packers paid Matthews to a big-time player. He hasn't been that guy enough early on in 2014. Matthews really should dominate Panthers left tackle Byron Bell Sunday.

 

2. Reading the Option

The Packers claim to be more prepared against the read-option, but roll back the tape of the Miami game and that's a hard argument to sell. Teams are still using Clay Matthews' overaggressiveness against him, and neither the inside linebackers nor Morgan Burnett saw the play well against the Dolphins. You can only wonder about the final result had Cam Newton been the ball-carrier on Ryan Tannehill's 40-yard dash to open the second half.

Few quarterbacks are more dangerous in the read option than Newton, who has a tight end's body and running back-like athleticism. The Packers might have to dust off the old Colin Kaepernick defense (Week 1, 2013 version), which asked the read defender to attack and hit the quarterback, regardless of what happened at the mesh point. Green Bay also has to be cognizant of Newton's scrambling ability, which might lead to more zone coverage looks (eyes on the quarterback). Sunday should be a good barometer for where the Packers currently are against a quarterback in the Kaepernick mold. 

 

3. On the Edges

The Packers will be without cornerback Sam Shields (knee), and Tramon Williams (ankle) is scheduled to be a game-time decision. On the other side, Panthers leading receiver Kelvin Benjamin is questionable with a concussion. It's possible we could see plenty of Davon House and Casey Hayward vs. Jerrico Cotchery and Jason Avant Sunday. Opposing quarterbacks have targeted the Packers' potential starting duo Sunday 25 times in 2014, completing 11 for 129 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions (40.2 passer rating).

A more important matchup can be found inside, where Panthers tight end Greg Olsen has game-breaking ability. The Packers need to do better vs. Olsen than the job they did back in Week 4, when Bears tight end Martellus Bennett caught nine passes for 134 yards. Taking away Olsen (five receiving touchdowns) will likely have a bigger say on the game's outcome than how the two backup cornerbacks play Sunday.

 

4. Time to Run

Like Green Bay, Carolina is in the discussion for worst run defense of 2014. While the Packers are giving up 154.5 yards per game on the ground, the Panthers are allowing 5.5 yards per carry. Both rank last in the NFL. The Bengals went to town on the Carolina run defense in Week 6, rushing for 193 yards on 31 carries (6.2 yards per attempt)—including 137 from Gio Bernard, who broke off an 89-yard touchdown run.

It's time for the Packers to find some consistency on the ground. While Eddie Lacy rushed for a season-high105 yards against Minnesota, his five other games in 2014 have ended south of 50. Keep an eye on playing time splits Sunday: Lacy and James Starks have seen the exact same number of snaps over the last two weeks (67). The two have an opportunity to get back on track against Carolina. 

 

5. Points-a-plenty

Since allowing just 21 total points during a 2-0 start, the Panthers have surrendered 136 in the four weeks since, at a 34-point clip per game. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (165) and Washington Redskins (139) have allowed more over the last four weeks.

A couple of factors can be blamed on the defensive collapse. For starters, the Panthers are missing defensive end Greg Hardy, who had 15 sacks and 25 quarterback hits last season. A team that led the NFL with 60 sacks in 2013 is on pace for just 34 this season. Behind a weakened pass rush, Carolina's new-look secondary simply hasn't played well. Opposing passers are completing 69.1 percent of their attempts with 12 touchdowns (allowed only 17 total in 2013) against the Panthers, who have new starters at three out of the four starting secondary positions. Unless Carolina's pass-rush suddenly comes alive, the Packers—a team averaging 35.7 points since Week 4—should light up the scoreboard Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 34, Panthers 28 (4-2)

A red-hot Aaron Rodgers (10 touchdowns, 130.5 passer rating the last three weeks) against a lost Carolina defense has the possibility for some serious fireworks. Cam Newton has similar potential, but I'd expect him to be the sparkler to Rodgers' grand finale in this potential battle of football pyrotechnics. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

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Comments (38)

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TKWorldWide's picture

October 17, 2014 at 07:09 pm

Special quiz just for you, our bovine brother:

A drinking glass has a capacity of 16 ounces. It is currently holding 14 ounces of strawberry milk. Is it:
A) Half empty
B) Less than half empty
C) Who cares? It's probably curdled anyway

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NewNikeShoes's picture

October 17, 2014 at 08:13 pm

dude, chocolate milk is better than strawberry milk.
Cow is in stage 1 of stupidity right now, which is denying stupidity.\
Next comes awareness of said stupidity.
Stage six is depression.
Stage 7 is acceptance.

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PackerAaron's picture

October 17, 2014 at 08:00 pm

What? Cow went through a great, well-thought out post and commented with only the most negative, stupid bile he could muster?

I'm shocked.

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murphy's picture

October 17, 2014 at 11:21 pm

Bile? Definitely.

Gee, I don't know. Maybe they could look at the tape and see what worked and what didn't, and determine if they can better counter the "didn't work" while not sacrificing most of the "worked."

I am not a big time armchair GM/coach. How would you suggest they stop/contain Newton?

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murphy's picture

October 18, 2014 at 07:47 pm

I was looking for Xs and Os, but you clearly aren't someone who can break down the game at that level.

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NickPerry's picture

October 18, 2014 at 07:54 am

Perhaps you forgot or more likely your selective memory is kicking in, Nick Collins was lost early in that game and Williams was out from a injury the week before. Granted the Packers pass defense was bad that whole season, but even you can figure out the loss of Collins was bigger than any injury the Packers have had until Rodgers. BTW, who won that game???????

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TommyG's picture

October 18, 2014 at 12:27 pm

San Fran won that game.

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4thand1's picture

October 17, 2014 at 09:11 pm

Feed the skip cowless. Before the season he was just the opposite of now. He's getting all the response he craves. No one could be having more fun than ol skippy. skip cowless sucks. He even showed up spewing his vile negativity after another Packer's win, just to rile everybody up. I'd bet most of us check out the posts every day just to see what crap skippy posts. I personally like it, its not boring and his posts are like him, full of shit.

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HankScorpio's picture

October 17, 2014 at 08:33 pm

If the choice were mine, I wouldn't be putting Matthews up against Byron Bell. With a preferred starter likely down (Lattimore), to me it comes down to whether I want to see more of Nick Perry or Brad Jones. That's a pretty easy call these days, IMO. Matthews can slide to the inside and used to spy on Newton while Peppers, Neal and Perry go against the Panther OTs.

The improved play at Safety is timely with Olson being the Panthers best pass game weapon. With or without Tramon Williams, I expect the Packer CBs to hold their own vs the Panther WRs.

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aj's picture

October 17, 2014 at 10:03 pm

You're right cow, people want him moved inside because he sucks now. It couldn't possibly be due to the fact he flies to the ball carrier as fast as any player in the sport. Not to mention, the drop off from him to perry compared to lattimore to jones is steep to say the least. Nobody is saying to make him a full time ILB, but on early downs it wouldn't be a terrible idea as perry has played the run very well this year and is shrinking the pocket with the bull rush. Novel idea, but packers' players can develop just like players throughout the league. You likely aren't a packers fan, so why do you spend so much time here?

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aj's picture

October 17, 2014 at 10:31 pm

The idea is to keep Jones off the field. How many premier pass rushers have the ability to play inside and excel? Clay would be a heck of an inside backer, but is still very good from the edge. Has clay struggled the last couple of games? Yes, but who can honestly say they have performed their job perfectly at all times? Lacy has struggled as well, but nobody believes he's washed up. It's just shock journalism. They are trying to get views and find something to worry about, feeding fans like you who need to constantly worry about something. Clay will right ship by the playoffs, and if he doesn't then you have reason to worry. As for right now? He's just having a bad stretch.

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HankScorpio's picture

October 18, 2014 at 12:16 am

"The idea is to keep Jones off the field. How many premier pass rushers have the ability to play inside and excel? Clay would be a heck of an inside backer, but is still very good from the edge."

Not just keep Jones off the field. At least for me. Jones stinks but Hawk and Lattimore are not exactly All Pro, either. Even when Lattimore gets back, I'd spot Matthews inside some. More to take snaps from the ILBs and give them to the OLBs.

The object is to put the 11 best guys on the field. Generally speaking, Matthews, Peppers, Neal and Perry are a bigger part of that than Hawk, Lattimore and Jones, IMO. I absolutely agree that Matthews is the rare guy that can excel inside or outside. That versatility is not a negative. It's a positive. That the rest of the OLB group around Matthews has improved tremendously over the likes of Zombo, Walden, et al, is not a knock on Matthews either.

PS...making the offense look for Matthews instead of knowing where he'll be can only help, too.

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HankScorpio's picture

October 18, 2014 at 07:07 am

He signed a contract to be a football player for the Green Bay Packers. I'm willing to bet that the words "edge pass rusher" are not in that contract anywhere.

Think outside the box. Expand your mind. Consider possibilities beyond the conventional wisdom. You'll be far less boring of a poster if you do.

BTW...I have never considered Matthews an elite pure pass rusher, per se. He's an elite player that can rush the passer. I never pigeon-holed him like you're doing. Putting him in the middle of the field gets him more involved at doing what he does best...being a football player. So don't think your trolling is having any impact on me. It's not.

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HankScorpio's picture

October 18, 2014 at 09:46 am

"He used to rush the passer at an elite level.
He no longer can."

That's your opinion. It's not mine. It's mostly myth, IMO.

He's never led the league in sacks. His highest finish among the league leaders was 4th when he put up 13 in 2010. He's never put up as many as 15 sacks in a season. 15 is not a high bar for an elite pass rusher to clear. His personal best of 13.5 was 5th best in the league in 2012. He's not been in the top 10 in sacks in another year besides those two. It's a tough case to make Matthews into an elite pass rusher unless you water down the definition of elite or view him through the prism of the guys surrounding him prior to this season.

Matthews was the best the Packers had by far. Prior to this season, it has been a collection of stiffs in the OLB room besides Matthews, especially when it came to pass rush. Now, the Packers have gotten better pass rushers to play along side Matthews. That doesn't make Matthews a different player. It makes the Packers dependence on his pass rush to get any pressure at all different. Less dependent is a good thing, not a bad one.

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HankScorpio's picture

October 18, 2014 at 07:23 am

"Did we all think he might be special? Yep."

First, it's pretty weird that you're interviewing yourself.

Second, when you do, stick to speaking for yourself in the answers you give yourself. You are not the spokesman for Packer fans. That much should be plainly obvious to you. "We all" most definitely did NOT think Lacy might be special. "Special" is never a word that popped into my head when thinking of Eddie Lacy, anyways. "Very good professional RB" is much closer for me. And I still think he is one.

BTW..I find it hard to believe that you ever thought Lacy was special. Not with the way you hammer TT for his drafts, including last year's class. It does not fit that TT's draft last year was as bad as you have repeatedly claimed if he pulled a player you thought might be "special" out of round 2. Sorry, that one isn't passing the smell test.

Try to be a little more intellectually consistent. You'll be less boring of a poster, if you do.

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zeke's picture

October 18, 2014 at 09:32 am

I assumed when you used "we" you were referring to you and your inside source.

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murphy's picture

October 17, 2014 at 11:48 pm

No, an example of major drop-off would be Matt Kalil from your favorite team.

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A_Lerxst_in_Packerland's picture

October 18, 2014 at 11:55 am

Personally, I'm not a fan of the "spy" technique. Not sure I've ever seen it really accomplish anything.

How should we stop Cam Newton? Hit him - as often as possible. Our D needs to stay disciplined, play their assignments, beat their man, and whenever Newton's got the ball, lay a good hit on him.

Easier said than done, right?

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Lphill's picture

October 17, 2014 at 08:58 pm

COW must be the biggest ass online, its not the Packers fault the Vikings suck. 31 other teams would love to have Clay Matthews on the field playing for them.

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lucky953's picture

October 17, 2014 at 10:31 pm

Let's talk defense as a whole. It worries me that you think Carolina, with lousy receivers, banged up running backs, and a mediocre OL (yeah, I know they have CN) is going to put up 28 pts in GB. Our ILBs are poor, but I still think we will keep them under 20.

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4thand1's picture

October 18, 2014 at 07:35 am

"they don't have god players" WTF is that? I'll bet you any amount of money you care to lose, the Packers will win more than 8 games. Better yet, the $$$ bet won't happen, but, if the Packers win more than 8, you will ban yourself for at least a year. I'll do the same.

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4thand1's picture

October 18, 2014 at 08:36 am

They've played 6 games, they'll be judged at the end of the season. Besides you lie and will welch on the bet. Typical of fans of other teams.

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4thand1's picture

October 18, 2014 at 06:42 pm

Dam right

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murphy's picture

October 18, 2014 at 01:37 pm

With Rodgers healthy for 16 games? You're insane.

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lucky953's picture

October 19, 2014 at 12:17 am

QB pressure, good secondary: Turnovers. That's why. Bend, don't break. It's been working.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 18, 2014 at 11:13 am

Defense has been pretty good all things considered. They need to shift things around because of the built in lack of depth when you carry Hawk and Jones, With Lattimore and Matthews hurting, Why not? Secondary in the middle is vastly improved so team will be only be as good as the LB play from here on out. This assumes DL does not lose anyone. No reason at all to be pessimistic, I think it will be an exciting year.

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Samson's picture

October 18, 2014 at 01:57 pm

Like it or not, Cow's probably not to far off concerning CM3. He's not even doubled like he used to be and one 'good' OL seems to be able to handle him more now than 2 or 3 years ago. IMO, he plays tentative (compared to 2 or 3 years ago). He's not nearly as relentless as he used to be. He's either hurting or afraid to get hurt. ----- Or his best days are behind him.

Sunday's game will tell alot about what CM3 has left. --- Can he keep up with Newton?

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Samson's picture

October 18, 2014 at 06:38 pm

I understand the sarcasm. --- In my mind the only real way to evaluate a player is through the eye test and stats. CM3's stats are dreadful. --- The eye test becomes nearly impossible unless he's around the ball. He's not. -----Hate to say it but a 34 year old converted DE seems more impactful than CM3 at this point in time.

Why do so many PackFans relentlessly defend CM3 ? ---- IMO, it has something to do with his blonde hair and blue eyes.

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4thand1's picture

October 18, 2014 at 06:48 pm

My biggest concern is the constant muscle pulls. The int he had in the Bear game he was only half speed and trotted out of bounds. When healthy he's a beast, he hasn't been healthy IMO. Packer fans defend him because he makes plays in big games. We haven't heard the last of CMIII.

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4thand1's picture

October 18, 2014 at 08:20 pm

Funny he broke his thumb twice while making sacks. HGH weakens bones?

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zeke's picture

October 18, 2014 at 09:56 pm

When did they start testing for HGH, shithead? Your previous posts have been all about how he hasn't done anything for two years +. So what's your theory, that he stopped taking HGH two years ago so that he could pass a test next week? Did he talk to your inside source and find out that they were going to agree to HGH testing this year?

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PackerAaron's picture

October 18, 2014 at 10:31 pm

You are such an intellectual weakling Cow. It's funny to watch.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

October 19, 2014 at 12:23 am

I concur. I used to stick up for him, then I wanted him banned, now I accept him for what he is... the Skip Baseless of CHTV. He gets the clicks, drums up drama from nothing, and makes outlandish predictions.

I'm alright with the trainwreck named Cow. He has a purpose. That purpose is to amuse us... the CHTV Court Jester, if you will.

Cow on, Cow. Cow on.

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4thand1's picture

October 18, 2014 at 11:32 pm

Really? You're the only one who claims to be a fan and is disappointed after a win. Do some research on winning teams and the salary cap. The teams that have "the man" at the QB position have a shot every year. That's all you can hope for. You did get a few points right in your last post, about time.

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NewNikeShoes's picture

October 18, 2014 at 10:59 pm

the day cow says the packers are talented, that's the day when pigs fly, meatballs rain down from the sky, and I become one with the force and realize I am the chosen one.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

October 19, 2014 at 03:44 am

CMIII used his hands extremely well and had an excellent initial hand punch. I have to wonder if his thumb isn't 100% or if he is reluctant to use his hands like he used to. (I can't see how he is using his hands watching him on TV, so it is hard to know for sure.) BTW, CMIII broke his left thumb in college too. I have noticed that he has had some difficulty getting QBs down on the ground.

I have to concede that he is not playing up to his contract at present, but he is still GB's best linebacker and the most versatile. As the season progresses and more time elapses since his thumb and groin injury, I am certainly expecting better statistics and watching him win more 1 on 1 situations.

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4thand1's picture

October 19, 2014 at 09:02 am

Clay will be playing with a chip on his shoulder today. We get to see the predator move today.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 19, 2014 at 10:12 am

Wow. . Is that really you. ? I remember that question, but it was a 2 second answer, always Rodgers.

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