Packers vs Bye: Game(less)day Preview - 2022 Week 14
The Packers finally have a late bye like they always wanted... fat lot of good that did. Let's check in on where the Packers are at the bye.
By BruceIrons
Most people expected a lot out of the Packers this year.
Entering Week 14 with only a mathematically miniscule chance of even sneaking into the 7th wild card spot, the Packers have failed to live up to nearly every expectation.
WHEN THE OPPONENTS HAVE THE BALL
When opponents have the ball, they've done pretty much whatever they want all season.
The Packers were supposed to finally have a defense this year.
With a couple first round picks added to a defense that retained ascending young vets like De'Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas, added role players like Jarran Reed, and welcomed back a healthy Jaire Alexander, expectations were high.
Quay Walker has been a starter since day 1, but experienced some rookie moments. Fellow first round pick Devonte Wyatt, meanwhile, has struggled to even get on the field.
It's not a huge immediate impact for two first round picks, but the vets are even worse. A case can be made that every returning Packers defender has been worse than they were last year.
Kenny Clark is going through his worst season as a pro, as is Adrian Amos, and Jaire Alexander isn't far behind. Eric Stokes was benched before getting hurt. De'Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas looked like they returned to their pre-Packers journeyman norms. Dean Lowry has maintained his consistent underwhelmingness, and Preston Smith might be be the current leader in the clubhouse simply by maintaining a somewhat similar level of play as last year.
Rashan Gary was the one player who looked noticeably better, but he tore his ACL on Detroit's garbage turf a month ago.
Joe Barry is an easy target for the decline of the defense. How can a defense full of superstar talent play so poorly? Well, the guy who architected the worst NFL defense in the last decade has no idea.
The players have to take some blame, too, though, because missed tackles and lax effort can't be blamed on the coach. Does Barry need to do more as a coach? Yup, but that doesn't mean the professionals on the field get a pass.
This is a unit with a lot of talent that simply isn't playing like it. Kingsley Enagbare has been a surprisingly solid replacement for Rashan Gary, and there aren't really gaping holes in the lineup - just good players performing poorly. The Packers defense still has the horses to run (at least enough to stay in games), but if they haven't figured it out by now, a bye week probably won't fix what ails them.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins were expected to make triumphant returns to health and launch the offense into the top tier of the league.
The reigning back-to-back MVP at quarterback, the best complementary running back duo in the league, and a diverse crop of young talented receivers were expected to blow defenses away with Matt LaFleur's cutting edge scheme and brilliant play-calling.
That didn't happen.
For starters, returning offensive linemen have struggled with health and only recently found a degree of normalcy. The constant shuffling on the line, that inexplicably featured Jake Hanson and Royce Newman, was inconsistent at best. Once Bakhtari and Jenkins settled into their familiar spots on the left side, Yosh Nijman made a successful switch to right tackle, and the Packers kept Jon Runyan at right guard next to Josh Meyers, things looked pretty good. Zach Tom has been an effective swing lineman.
That bodes well for the rest of the season, but it may be too little too late.
Early blocking issues earned Aaron Rodgers a broken thumb, which severely limited the passing game, even with stabilized blocking. To be honest, though, Rodgers wasn't lighting it up like an MVP before his the injury. The wide receiver group featured a lot of unfamiliar faces and was unsettled early. Things have improved since then (hristian Watson has emerged as a game-breaker, Romeo Doubs played better than advertised, and Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb have been steady role players) but it may be too little too late given where the Packers find themselves.
The run game has been a bright spot... when used.
AJ Dillon overcame some uncharacteristically hesitant running early in the year to return to battering ram form over the last two weeks, and Aaron Jones has been money pretty much every time he's touched the ball.
Which makes it so head-scratching that the team seemed to ignore the run so often, specifically on the goal line late against the Giants.
The offense, as a whole, has underperformed. There's plenty of reasons to explain why and it's undoubtedly a combination of all of them.
It's possible this group hits stride after a week of rest and explodes through the final four games of the year, but it might not matter.
OTHER NOTES
Special teams were expected to improve with a new coach in Rich Bisaccia and new players in Keisean Nixon and Rudy Ford.
And, somewhat surprisingly, they did.
They improved from an absolutely abysmal unit that wrecked the entire season to a mediocre group with only a few disasters, making them the most promising unit on the team.
They stuck with human fumbling machine Amari Rodgers at punt returner for reasons no one has explained even though he was a net negative every time he stepped on the field for special teams. Since cutting him, they've had some decent returns.
On the year, they've had some decent returns, haven't given up a return in a while, and even managed to block a field goal last week at a critical point in the game.
Like offense and defense, though, their improvement may be too little too late.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Expectations are the enemy of joy.
This is a terrible season if you came in expecting a Super Bowl. You're probably miserable even if you "only" expected to walk to a division title.
If you just watch each week to enjoy some free entertainment (and squint really hard to focus on the positives), you got some exciting close games. They didn't always pan out the way we wanted, but they were good games for a neutral observer.
We're not neutral observers, though, are we?
We're Packers fans who expected more than this.
We expected the offense to step up with healed linemen and exciting young receivers. We expected the defense to capitalize on it's strong playoff showing and get to the next level with vets returning to health and highly-drafted rookies raising the overall profile of the unit. We expected special teams to not be an albatross that loses every game.
Two out of three ain't bad, but we only got one out of three.
There's hope to cling on to. The Packers could win out and sneak in for an exciting, improbable playoff run. But they'll need help. Let's hope the Texans upset the Cowboys, the Bucs beat the 49ers, and the Eagles beat the Giants. Let's hope the Packers stay alive for another week.
We'll have months to talk about the future. For now, let's enjoy what's right here and keep hope alive... for at least one more week.
Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.
Comments (45)
croatpackfan
December 11, 2022 at 07:14 am
If hope is everything that is left, expect nothing spectacular. Because Fear rarely deceives, while it is hope's craft.
That is all.
BradHTX
December 11, 2022 at 08:01 am
“Fear rarely deceives, while it is hope's craft.”
That’s really good, CPF. Where did you get that?
croatpackfan
December 11, 2022 at 08:59 am
It is confirmed very often. It is Croatian proverb.
BradHTX
December 11, 2022 at 03:44 pm
Then your people are both wise and poetic, my Croatian friend! Thanks.
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 11:02 am
Fear rarely deceives….Croatian saying.
Fear is the shadow of opportunity……..words I live by.
egbertsouse
December 11, 2022 at 03:23 pm
Forget the Packers, watch the World Cup. Can Croatia take out Argentina?
LeotisHarris
December 11, 2022 at 03:40 pm
Did the Qataris bury the 6,500-7,000 migrant workers who died building the stadiums?
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 05:10 pm
I saw a TV report that said they were secretly relocated to the US and given mail in ballots.
13TimeChamps
December 11, 2022 at 05:17 pm
How about keeping your right wing political bs off this football site?
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 05:41 pm
Thank you for that. You see, I worded that very carefully to not indicate any type of a bias, left or right. It was bait to see if any nitwit would bite.
So again, thank you for that.
Also, I was replying specifically to Leotis, who has a rich sense of humor. It would probably be better if you didn't involve yourself in exchanges between him and me.
13TimeChamps
December 11, 2022 at 05:55 pm
Well considering it's only Republicans that whine about losing elections, my nitwit intelligence assumed the worst. I guess the question is why you would bring politics into the conversation at all and why you would be "baiting" anyone politically on a football forum.
You never disappoint.
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 06:04 pm
Who was whining about an election? e That's all projection on your part. Why were you interfering in a conversation between Leotis and I? Why don't you just NOT READ MY STUFF, as I have asked you at least 20 times? Skip over me.
Why did I bait you? Because I knew you'd take the bait. And you did. Like you always do. Dance, puppet. It's not as though I'm offending a thousand nitwits here.....only a very few. Only one of them enough to complain.
13TimeChamps
December 11, 2022 at 06:18 pm
"Why did I bait you? Because I knew you'd take the bait. And you did."
Ok, let me try to wrap my nitwit head around this. You want me to not read your posts and to skip over your posts, to basically avoid any interaction with you. But then you purposefully post something to "bait" me to see my reaction. What is my nitwit brain missing here?
Call me crazy, but it almost seems like you're obsessed with me.
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 06:48 pm
Yes, the guy who thinks you are a nitwit and wishes you would ignore him is obsessed with you. Whatever you say, Crazy.
13TimeChamps
December 11, 2022 at 06:54 pm
I guess you glossed over the "I baited you thingy"...lol
You truly are an idiot. Have a wonderful evening.
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 07:00 pm
Yeah, I glossed over it everytime I admitted it and mentioned it. That's what glossing over means, right?
You cannot ignore me. You're easy to bait . I mean, I guess Leotis' comment about all the dead bodies didn't really register with you, but my JOKE about the stuff you see on TV did. And then you projected a bunch of stuff into it, because that's who you are, and you got all Karen-like. And that's why I call you the Princess.
13TimeChamps
December 11, 2022 at 07:05 pm
"You cannot ignore me. You're easy to bait ."
Really sounds like someone who wants to be left alone.
LeotisHarris
December 11, 2022 at 07:47 pm
What would it take to get you and 13 in a CHTV sponsored pay-per-view event? I'm thinking a cage match. Two men enter, only one walks out. I'd suggest Doug_in_SandPoint as the referee, partly because I think he's honest and fair, but also because I imagine him to be a smaller dude who could easily be knocked unconscious when the match goes off the rails and pandemonium ensues.
You both should choose entrance music and signature finishing moves. A ringside announcer will also be needed. Lots of great candidates here. Nicknames, too. LH, you could use the Texas Tornado, and 13 could be from parts unknown.
13TimeChamps
December 11, 2022 at 07:55 pm
"What would it take to get you and 13 in a CHTV sponsored pay-per-view event? I'm thinking a cage match."
Oh, you have no idea. We can only dream.
croatpackfan
December 11, 2022 at 04:32 pm
We expect hard playing game with lot of dirty penalties, as Argentina play that way. It might end with another penalty shots contest. We respect Argentina. They are better than they were 4 years ago at World cup in Russia where we beat them 3:0.
Whoever win next match, we are already pleased. In Russia we were in final and lost from France. At this world cup we can be the worst 4th. And we are country with ~3,600,000 citizens. Less than many cities in USA.
The game vs Argentina is on Tuesday at 20:00 (8:00 pm), and that is 2:00 am EST.
Johnblood27
December 11, 2022 at 07:31 am
You had me right up to the final paragraphs.
Hope?
That's the takeaway?
How about a section on the head-scratching decisions by then coaching staff and more stoopidness from the FO?
Looking at unit by unit to try to define what has gone sideways with this season should START with the FO and then go straight to the Coaching staff and END with the players.
Since'61
December 11, 2022 at 10:40 am
Absolutely correct Johnblood27. As I recently posted in the thread on inconsistency earlier this week the Packers issues this began with the FO decisions, then the coaches decisions and have caused results that we have seen on the field. Yes, the players have their share of accountability but the FO and the coaches also need to take their of the accountability and on field results. Thanks, Since '61
Thegreatreynoldo
December 11, 2022 at 07:47 am
Two out of three isn't bad.
I want to watch the games.
I need to watch the games.
But I ain't ever going to love this team.
croatpackfan
December 11, 2022 at 09:13 am
Did ypu notice that all teams on bye this week are either out of play off chances or on very slim hope to achieve that goal. Of course, except Washington. Those teams are: Falcons, Bears, Colts, Saints, Packers and Commanders.
Interesting group!
Johnblood27
December 11, 2022 at 10:42 am
sooo...
I guess that means that with all of the also-rans out of action that the slate of games this week should be the most compelling week of the season!!!
Lphill
December 11, 2022 at 10:28 am
The best D line combo right now should be Wyatt, Slayton and Clark .
Johnblood27
December 11, 2022 at 10:43 am
only in GB my man!
there are MANY better options in the NFL... and therein lies the rub!
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 11:40 am
At the Bye....four games remaining, The Packers are:
23rd in per game scoring, and 25th in Drive Success Rate. That's well below average and getting into 'bad' territory. Oddly enough, we lead the NFC in TD passes. The top offensive teams? Dallas and Philly in the NFC, KC and Buffalo in the AFC.
We're 21st in scoring defense...but that's a little misleading because several teams are very tightly packed. Only 6 points, total, separate the #16 Rams from the #21 Packers. The league's best defense? San Francisco, along with Dallas in the NFC. It's Buffalo and Denver in the AFC.
Edit: KC with 34 over Denver in the 4th quarter. Offense wins.
If you believe it's about defense, then you're expecting SF and Denver in the Super Bowl. If you think it's about offense, you'd be looking at the Eagles v KC in the Super Bowl. If you think it's about balance, then you'd be expecting Dallas and Buffalo.
cheesehead1
December 11, 2022 at 01:01 pm
I just hope Gute leaves no stone unturned and opens the checkbook to finally get a competent DC. Enough is enough.
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 05:59 pm
Just for the record, cheesehead1, what would constitute a "competent" DC?
Over the last 3 years, the Packers scoring defense has finished 13,13, and 9. The three previous years were the last years of McCarthy, 2016-2018. We were weaker defensive teams those years, finishing 18, 18, and 22. Not exactly terrible, but no better than low average.
5 of the previous 6 years, which would include all the way back to 2009, we finished above average. Our 2010 team is one of the all-time best Packer defenses.
This year, we've held every team but one to 28 or less. We've held half of our opponents to the league average or less. We'll probably finish pretty close to 16th overall in scoring defense, yet this apparently isn't competent.
So I'd just really like to know what the standard is?
canadapacker
December 11, 2022 at 06:42 pm
My idea of a better defense - is not this bend dont break defense. Dont care about the stats - dont care that we won some games last year by not allowing a 2 point conversion or getting an interception in the end zone - those plays dont always happen and are not this year. I believe you can play the cover 2 as long as they play up with speed and dont miss tackles. I am getting tired of letting other teams possess the ball for 6 minutes even if we stop them at the 20 and only give up a field goal. I want to see the team make tackles not miss tackles and I believe in the Brian Urlacher approach - you get fined if you have any loafs. Too often we have a lot of loafs and give up a lot of yards after contact. I would like to see our Dbacks make tackles at the line of scrimmage when they try those quick wide receiver passes or the wide receiver screens. I want to see us get the ball back if the O happens to have a 3 and out or a fumble. That is what good/great defenses do. Now who is the DC who will do that ? I would like an ex head coach - Zimmer Fangio or maybe Lovie - it seems that the other teams like KC etc dont mind having an ex HC on their staff.
Since'61
December 11, 2022 at 09:42 pm
Competence/Incompetence is more a matter of decisions and schemes rather than stats. Poor decisions like failing to have Alexander cover Jefferson in the very first game of the season was an early sign of poor coaching decisions. Playing DBs 8+ yards off the LOS regardless of down and distance is another indication of poor coaching. Missed tackles, miscommunications, blown coverages, poor use of players like Walker and Clark are further indications of poor decisions and bad coaching. Any or all of these issues should be remedied during the preseason but for the Packers they continue game after game without correction. It's inexcusable at the professional level.
Speaking for myself my standards are based on the Lombardi era Packers defense. In nine seasons Lombardi's defense was never ranked lower than 3rd in the league in points allowed. That only happened in one season. In the other 8 seasons the Packers defense ranked either first or second in the league. I would be remiss to leave out the fact that in 10 post season games the Packers defense allowed 9.7 PPG. Those are my standards. Top 3 defense or better and 10 PPG in the playoffs.
Unrealistic standards in this era? Probably, but the Packers are not even anywhere close to a championship defense and haven't been since they ranked 2nd in the league in the 2010 SB season. Defense is about preparation, adjustments, tackling, and most important of all, playing with a nasty attitude and rallying to the football. Good situational football and making stops to get off the field. We're not there and when you look at the stats they prove exactly where the Packers defense is and will remain until the Packers hire competent coaches. I cannot think of any legitimate excuse for the mediocre level of defensive play since the 2010 season except for mismanagement by the FO and yes, incompetent coaching season after season after season.
Thanks, Since '61
BruceIrons
December 11, 2022 at 10:05 pm
I have high standards for defense, too, but holding a team to 10 points in a playoff game is a lot to ask.
Last year, in the 13 playoff games (26 scores), only one team failed to score more than 10 in a game...
Since'61
December 12, 2022 at 12:31 pm
Yes it is a lot to ask. But winning the league championship is not supposed to be easy, it should be difficult. But if you set a very high standard the team may reach a standard which is good enough to win. Maybe 17 PPG in this era is the correct standard.
As Lombardi himself told the team, "We will strive for perfection knowing that we will never achieve it. But in attempting to achieve perfection we just might achieve excellence along the way." The result of that philosophy is that the NFL's trophy for achieving excellence in an NFL season is named the Lombardi Trophy. I will leave it there. Thanks, Since '61
canadapacker
December 11, 2022 at 11:02 pm
Totally agree - and maybe we are not scouting or bringing up the correct types of coaches - remember when we had a guy like Kevin Greene - This stuff about analytics etc - leave that for the guys up in the ivory tower to advise not to game plan. I get upset when guys do stupid things and dont seem to be at least called to the bench - Hits out of bounds - holding penalties away from the play by dbacks - those are dumb penalties and show ( IMO) a lack of commitment and being held to a standard. The standards of play have changed over the years regarding physical play - but remember Matthews losing us a game against the Vikes for a dumb late hit - those things just are not smart. I also wonder as I have said before - do tell scouts to report/select/evaluate D players after the first few rounds that have shown a willingness to tackle ( and play/show special teams talent)
Lphill
December 11, 2022 at 03:12 pm
As owners can we start an online petition to fire Joe Barry?
13TimeChamps
December 11, 2022 at 08:25 pm
I hate to be the one to break it to you, but the only thing you "own" is a cool piece of paper you can frame and hang on your wall.
But, as a fan, knock yourself out with any online petitions you want to come up with.
My apologies to fangirl who thinks otherwise.
Since'61
December 11, 2022 at 08:51 pm
Yes we can start an onlinepetition. But we have no standing to legally make anything happen.
The shares that we own are glorified thank you cards for the donations that we have made to the team. In the real world we don't own anything and have no legal standing to force the team to do anything. We can't even sell our shares to express our displeasure with how the team is run.
As far as the Packers organization is concerned they have no obligation at all to even answer our petition.
Thanks, Since '61
Leatherhead
December 11, 2022 at 07:29 pm
After today, the NFC looks like SF, Philly, Dallas. I think Minnesota, Seattle, the Giants, Tamp etc. aren’t on that level.
SF scored 35 today with a 3rd string rookie QB who was the last player taken in the draft last year, Mr Irrelevant.. The Bucs will win that poor division, but they’re one and done.
Tundraboy
December 11, 2022 at 08:37 pm
"Fat lot of good that did" is right. Lmao. Perfect.
lecko
December 12, 2022 at 02:17 am
At least 1 ex- packer from this season did play this Week. Amari Rodgers got some catches and his first NFL touchdown in first half against Dallas. Good for him
Oppy
December 12, 2022 at 02:53 am
He had a pretty good game- 4 catches on 5 targets for 57 yards and a TD. It's almost like he's a WR who just needed playing time and a QB who was willing to throw him the ball.
canadapacker
December 12, 2022 at 11:46 am
He had his chances and he had a few signs of life on the O - his inability to hold onto the ball and get any yards on the punt return ended up being his demise - He ended up being a less talented version of Ty Montgomery who also got cut for failing to hold onto the ball and had some moments with other teams. I myself think that cutting him was the correct move. Some things need to have consequences - and if you continually do them - play elsewhere IMO
Oppy
December 12, 2022 at 05:49 pm
Maybe they shouldn't have used him as a punt returner, but- get this- tried to use him as a slot receiver since that's pretty much what they drafted him for.
You know why they didn't give him much opportunity? 'cuz Rodgers basically black balled him. My guess as to why is because the slot is supposed to belong to Rodgers' oft-injured pal Randall Cobb. Just a guess.
Oppy
December 12, 2022 at 05:55 pm
Aaron Rodgers pretty much immediately stated that he "doesn't have time to train a slot WR".
The narrative was that Amari just wasn't able to grasp the playbook despite months of OTAs, camp, preseason, and regular season, and that he just couldn't separate from defenders, couldn't get open- doesn't have the wheels or quickness to compete. Call me a sucker, I guess, but I find it odd that Amari Rodgers picked up an entirely new playbook with the Texans and got it down enough in the last 3 weeks to have a 4/5 reception game averaging 14.2 per catch and TD, when he has some sort of mental block and not enough talent to succeed as a WR in the NFL.
Let me say it yet again: No top tier QB does less with the young talent around him than Aaron Charles Rodgers.