Packers Shouldn't Trade Flynn
Ted Thompson would be wise to resist the urge to move his teams backup quarterback for draft pick compensation.
By PackerAaron
In what must have been some kind of reputational-transformation land-speed record, a segment of the Packers fan base morphed before our very eyes on Sunday night. Having spent the last three off-seasons talking about how General Manager Ted Thompson simply HAD to bring in a veteran quarterback and that entrusting the backup quarterback position to a seventh round pick. No, these fans were fond of saying, Thompson was foolish not to be looking at guys like Jeff Garcia and Dante Culpepper (Which, in fact, Ted did. Even made an offer.)
Funny how one good showing against the best team in the NFL will change some minds.
Seemingly within moments of the conclusion of the Patriots game, my Twitter feed and Inbox were filled with armchair GM's giddily asking what Matt Flynn might fetch the Packers by way of draft pick compensation. Seems this guy who no one thought could get the job done is suddenly seen as a can't-miss starter material and that, obviously, NFL GMs will be lining up to send the Packers a third or even second round pick for Flynn.
The hope here is that Ted Thompson holds steady and resists the urge to move Flynn for Thompson's favorite toy - a draft pick. Flynn is worth far more to the Packers in the fold backing up Aaron Rodgers than a crap-shoot on the second or third day of the draft. (For those in need a refresher, the Packers trade of Matt Hasselbeck to the Seattle Seahawks netted them Jamal Reynolds and Torrance Marshall)
Mike McCarthy has spent the last three years molding Flynn into the quarterback we saw this past Sunday against the Patriots. It would be foolish to then turn around and move him, especially in light of the fact that the Packers starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, has suffered two concussions in roughly ten weeks time.
And that last point leads to a far more serious concern. If the worst were to happen and Rodgers were to suffer yet another concussion sometime this season, talk would begin to center around Rodgers career and how long he would be able to carry on playing football. In the event that conversation were to take place, the Packers would be far better off with Flynn in the fold ready to take over, even if only while Thompson searches for a new quarterback.
Because here's the thing - as big a supporter as I've been of Matt Flynn and as much as I was impressed with his play on Sunday night, I don't see him as a viable starter in the NFL. I know there are people in the NFL that do, and I could be proven completely wrong if and when Flynn ends up starting somewhere. But from what I've seen in his admittedly minimal stints of live-action, he is a top-flight backup - not starter material. His arm will always be an issue and as much as I like his demeanor and how his teammates seemingly responded to him, he seems to have minimal pocket presence, one of the important "feel" aspects of the position that simply can't be taught.
Again, I could be proven totally wrong - it certainly wouldn't be the first time. And of course, all it takes is one General Manager to fall in love with what he saw on Sunday night, pick up the phone this summer and offer Thompson something he can't refuse. John Schnieder out in Seattle would be an obvious candidate, seeing as he saw Flynn day in and day out the last two years, but he and head coach Pete Carroll are busy finding out that the last back-up quarterback acquisition they gave up draft-pick compensation for can't play. It's unlikely they'd be pulling that type of trigger again.
Regardless of the suitor, unless the offer is unbelievable - like first-round-pick unbelievable - Thompson needs to resist the urge to move Flynn. He's much better where he is, even if only for another year.
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Comments (41)
December 23, 2010 at 01:27 pm
Flynn makes a great backup quarterback and I am glad to have him back there an insurance, but Flynn has no deep ball...at all. He is not starting QB material. He is familiar with this team and the schemes and he would be much more valuable as a backup to GB than any reasonable trade offer the Packers would get. I don't think we should trade him either.
Now how can we hype up Graham Harrell to get something for him!
December 23, 2010 at 01:27 pm
Funny, the other night I posted the same thing in my imaginary blog in my brain.
I agree. But if you could somehow get a 2nd rounder for him, you have to take the chance. The first 2 rounds of the draft are where you can get impact players that need less development and thus would fit in with this team immediately. And you could always sign a vet in a pinch.
December 23, 2010 at 01:33 pm
Don't trade Flynn, even for a 2nd rounder
We used a 2nd rounder on Brian-sure-thing Brohm and look at what we got...Tavaris Jackson was a 2nd rounder too.
No tougher position to draft and develop than QB and it makes zero sense for a team with SB aspirations to trade him away
December 23, 2010 at 04:29 pm
+1
I say extend Flynn a few years if he and his agent will bite on a reasonable deal this off season. Then TT can spend his eval time on other situations. Flynn's potential trade value only goes up if he's under contract anyway.
December 23, 2010 at 01:37 pm
I don't think Flynn would fetch a first day pick. And I don't think he should be moved for less.
Great seventh round pick by Ted Thompson.
Brian Carriveau
December 23, 2010 at 01:56 pm
And all this isn't to mention what would the Packers plans be at backup quarterback without Flynn.
December 23, 2010 at 01:56 pm
I am pretty sure Steve Young couldn't throw it very deep either...
PackerAaron
December 23, 2010 at 02:21 pm
Flynn is much more akin to Chad Pennington in arm strength than Young.
December 23, 2010 at 04:27 pm
Chad Pennington threw deep passes better than anyone in the NFL with the Jets. He threw them less often, but as you see with Parcells inspired crap in Miami, it's almost never attempted.
PackerAaron
December 23, 2010 at 07:21 pm
He threw nine (go) routes, yes. Like Flynn, he got good air underneath them. That's not where you need arm strength. The place where Pennington struggled, as will Flynn, are with deep/15 yard Out routes. That's the throw that big league quarterbacks have to be able to make. Now, as I say above, I could be totally proven wrong. But Flynn's been in the NFL, and more importantly in an NFL weight room, for three years now. Unlike Rodgers, his arm doesn't look appreciably stronger than it did in his rookie season.
December 23, 2010 at 07:30 pm
aahh, the "Frozen Rope" pass
December 23, 2010 at 02:35 pm
Keep Flynn, trade the armchair GMs.
December 23, 2010 at 02:37 pm
Two things:
It's possible it won't be up to TT whether Flynn stays. Flynn's contract expires at the end of next year and he may want to explore free agency rather than resign as AR's backup. If TT thinks this is what Flynn will do I say trade him this off season rather than see him walk at the end of 2011 esp. if I get a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Secondly, you said "I don't see him (Flynn)as a viable starter in the NFL." and you said "If the worst were to happen and Rodgers were to suffer yet another concussion sometime this season, talk would begin to center around Rodgers career and how long he would be able to carry on playing football. In the event that conversation were to take place, the Packers would be far better off with Flynn in the fold ready to take over, even if only while Thompson searches for a new quarterback."
In essence, this says Flynn is at best a stop gap. If that's the case, trade him and develop Harrell, bring in a vet, and/or draft a QB. Caveat: if I absolutely felt we're ready to make a SB run I may keep him as security even though he could/would walk at season's end.
December 23, 2010 at 04:23 pm
Bubbaone, you hit the big issue with all this: the fact that Flynn's contract is (most likely) up at the end of 2011. With the CBA in limbo, nothing is guaranteed. He could possibly be a RFA after next year, too, depending on what happens.
Anyway, if he had 3 more years on his contract, I would agree 100% with Aaron that we should hang on to him. But he doesn't...and what if we get a Charlie Whitehurst-esque offer this offseason? That would be hard to turn down. I predict we won't get that offer and that we'll hang on to him.
December 23, 2010 at 02:53 pm
"If the worst were to happen and Rodgers were to suffer yet another concussion sometime this season, talk would begin to center around Rodgers career and how long he would be able to carry on playing football."
I just broke into cold sweats.
December 23, 2010 at 03:07 pm
and I just broke into the liqure cabinet.
December 23, 2010 at 04:03 pm
Now that's just plain F'ing funny!
December 23, 2010 at 06:32 pm
Mine is always unlocked. And open. And stocked.
December 23, 2010 at 03:24 pm
Aaron, Please start a discussion topic thread on why all of Packerland still thinks the Bears still suck. I am sick of listening to Chicago Sports Radio living in a mass delusion.
December 23, 2010 at 04:03 pm
I agree that Flynn should be kept around as long as possible, but there's no doubt that there will be interest in him from other teams in the next year or two. If that interest does materialize, Flynn will not be content to stay as a backup the rest of his career. It might be better to trade him (after keeping him for as long as possible,) than just letting him leave if he gets a better offer when he's up for free agency.
December 23, 2010 at 04:45 pm
how can anyone say we should/should not trade flynn based on a draft that hasn't happened yet?
if a desirable pick is on the board, if a desirable trade is offered, you consider your options.
December 23, 2010 at 04:57 pm
And it depends on how they like Harrel. Also, there are quite a few QB prospects in this year's draft.
But, if a trade goes down, take nothing less than a 2nd.
By the way, developing QB's is another reason to keep MM.
December 23, 2010 at 05:10 pm
To me it's more about Harrell than Flynn in terms of a trade. Harrell has a higher ceiling than Flynn does. Right on about McCarthy, which is why I think he might do wonders with Harrell becoming the #2 and getting more attention. More reason to have Mike focusing on the QB's and coaching and have some Off. Coor. calling plays.
December 23, 2010 at 06:40 pm
Harrell has a higher ceiling than Flynn? To me, he's a glorified Chuck Fusina.
December 23, 2010 at 05:15 pm
I wonder what Doug Pederson thinks.
December 23, 2010 at 05:25 pm
He's not Ty Detmer, but he needs to maintain fundamentals or the long balls will float. His pocket presence will come with experience.
I think they could definitely get something good for him. Remember when Doug Pederson got his shot? We got him back as a backup the next year.
More importantly, what needs to happen is that MM needs to scale down the Run and Shoot EVERY week. Then Rodgers will be able to move the ball effectively too. You'll notice there were no entire quarters of "MM lull" in our offense? They didn't always move the ball, but they showed up for 60.
December 23, 2010 at 05:36 pm
Flynn won the National Championship at LSU after Jamarcus Russell went #1 overall in the draft. As said before he beat Brohm. I like that we have a real Winner at backup. I agree that its foolish to trade him before his contract expires. Something that escapes our minds is that this team is based on defense.
December 23, 2010 at 06:35 pm
Flynn may like the club, and stay regardless of FA. The sight of Rodgers being so happy for Flynn's play vs. NE says something to me. Chemistry.
December 24, 2010 at 09:01 pm
this is a great point. and how refreshing to have a starting quarterback supportive of his backup.
December 23, 2010 at 06:44 pm
Flynn looked 'very good' against the Pats ..... Doesn't mean that performance will be par for the course (Even Ryan Leaf thru for 14 TDs in his short time in the NFL) ..... If someone offered a 2nd, GB would be crazy to decline ...... That 2nd could be used to beef up the OL, OLB or that RB that must show up during the offseason - 2011 ......
Having said that ..... My guess is that Flynn will be a Packer in 2011 & leave via free agency as soon as he can .... He won a National Chapionship, why would he be content as a career backup?
December 23, 2010 at 06:48 pm
Make that 'Championship' ...... It's dark in my cell .... LOL.
December 23, 2010 at 06:51 pm
Unless they get a stronger run game to hold the offense when the QB1 gets hurt,you have to keep a guy like Flynn and liked by Rodgers to keep it afloat.
He may miss a beat or two out on the dance floor,but thats a whole lot better than leaning against the bar like a drunk.
December 23, 2010 at 07:26 pm
TT has had 15 2nd and 3rd round picks in 6 drafts.
Here's a listing of 10 of those that many feel have not panned out (my objections are noted. Also, Murphy was injured).
Murphy (injured)
Colledge (my objection)
Jackson (debatable)
Brohmn
Lee (CB)
Hodge
Spitz
Jones (debatable)
Nelson (debatable)
Rouse
Anyway, only 5 of 15 in 6 drafts have been hits (Collins, Jennings, Finley) and two are still pending (Neal, Burnett).
I'm not sure dealing Flynn for a 2 or 3 (assuming this is the exchange value) would even be worth it.
December 23, 2010 at 08:44 pm
This might be a little too much of a black and white take on things.
The three hits you point out are absolute home runs (Finley, Jennings, and to a slightly lesser extent Collins).
Colledge, Nelson, Jackson, and Jones will stick in the NFL, and may still have their best years in front of them. In any case, Ted got NFL some kind of value for those picks.
Leaving out the young guys and the freak accident victim (Murphy), that only leaves four busts (Brohm, Spitz, Hodge, Rouse).
Those 2nd/3rd rounds picks have serious value. I dont know if I would move Flynn for a 3rd, but you've got to think long and hard about a 2nd.
December 23, 2010 at 08:03 pm
Aaron,
Are you suggesting the Packers should anoint Matt Flynn as "The New Doug Pederson"?
JohnRehor
December 23, 2010 at 09:53 pm
Why exactly are we so quick to decide that Flynn is trade worthy? One good game and a couple of good preseasons?
Why would we not want to hold onto a quarterback who provides solid depth and has proved that he can run the offense. Because Thompson might be able to get a 3rd or 4th for him?
Just because Flynn wants to start doesnt mean he ever will, and the Packers should try to convince him of that-stay here, good gig backing up QB1
December 24, 2010 at 02:19 am
With names like Hasselbeck, Brunell, and Brooks in the list of back-up QBs behind Brint who were traded away for picks, people are salivating for a trade for picks out of Flynn.
Which is a little odd, considering a bunch of these same people are likely to complain about TT hording draft picks. :)
December 24, 2010 at 12:18 am
I agree that Flynn won't be a top-flight starter, but I think he'd be a pretty good starter for a team that runs the ball a lot and plays good defense. I'd put him on par with Matt Cassel or David Garrard. I feel like those guys are worth a 2nd-rounder.
Keep an eye on Tennessee. They run the ball, play pretty good defense, and their GM has ties to TT and the Packers.
December 24, 2010 at 11:22 am
Plain fact of the NFL is that there are only about 16 quality starters in any given year so the other 16 are in always in the market. Leverage suggests that TT might get as high as a 2nd rounder. Only if the coaching staff thinks Harrell is ready to move up do you trade Flynn. Not a bad return for a 7th rounder and 3 years of development.
December 24, 2010 at 02:59 pm
Matt Flynn is another example that TT knows what he is doing. We are in good hands with Ted!
Merry Christmas everyone!
December 25, 2010 at 01:16 am
If Flynn isn't starter material then why not strike while the Iron is hot? Then move forward with Graham Harrell is the back up. I like how TT has stock piled draft picks and be pretty efficient at finding talent anywhere in the draft. I don't see Flynn leading the packers to the promised land so if Rodgers continues to have concussion problems the Pack will have to find a new starter anyway. I say trade him while his stock is high.