The Packers are going to have a lot of decisions to make next March and during the rest of the 2019 league year.  I will be watching certain players closely when I re-watch games over the rest of the season to formulate opinions about which players we should keep and which ones might become cap casualties.  The Packers will have 12 unrestricted free agents, two restricted free agents, and possibly three players who will qualify for a significant increase in pay through the Proven Performance Escalator.

In the spreadsheet below, I have listed twelve players who are under contract for 2019 and provided their contract information.  They are possible cap casualties.  Since I write about the cap rather than opining about the merits of players, I listed every player with significant cap savings or who have come under fire from fans. 

It is pretty self-explanatory.  The ratio is cap savings to dead money.  I always look harder at players who have ratios above two to one, but large-cap savings cannot be ignored.  Space was limited for listing backups.  While I listed Lowry as Daniels’ backup, one could reasonably assert that Lowry is a starter and the backup to Daniels is Montravius Adams.  Timing means when a decision on the player should be made.  September means the decision can wait until final cut downs.  Some players will earn workout bonuses, so releasing them prior to the time those are earned (April to June over 9 weeks) would be optimal.  Generally, the workout bonuses are not so large as to preclude releasing the player later if it is otherwise warranted.  Two players have large roster bonuses due on the 3^rd day of the new league year: Perry ($4.8 million) and Tramon Williams ($1 million).  In Perry’s case, if he is paid the $4.8 million roster bonus in early March, that would negate all the cap savings and actually mean that releasing him reduces cap space by $1.2 million.  The Packers can look at free agents during the legal tampering period but should decide on Perry and Williams within two days of the start of actual free agency.

I do not think Daniels, Taylor, or Graham are going anywhere.  Bulaga may have an injury history, but so far in 2018, he has played 87.8% of all possible snaps.  The offense seems to work much better when he is playing and most fan comments pray for his health rather than for his release next year.  Crosby has detractors and recently had a very bad game.  Crosby’s cap savings of $3.6 million is large for a kicker.  I suspect that it would take more bad games for Crosby to figure prominently in any offseason debates. 

Perry is firmly in the crosshairs of many fans.  $3.6 million cap savings is not enough to pay for a good replacement.  On the other hand, if the replacement merely needs to set the edge and play good run defense, maybe even have the ability to drop into coverage, there might well be a number of free agent candidates available in the $3.6 million to $5 million area.  Such a replacement might be viewed as a band-aid since that type of player probably does not solve the problem.  The cap savings could be used for other purposes as well.     

Tramon Williams is an interesting case.  He has roughly a three to one cap savings to dead money ratio and $4.75 million in gross cap savings.  Moving Williams to safety has also been mentioned by fans if not the team.  Until I see the move made, I will think of him as a cornerback and possibly an emergency backup at safety.  The health and development of King, Alexander and Jackson will play a large part in this decision.  How well Breeland plays and whether the Packers decide to re-sign him also factors in.  If Williams looks to be the third cornerback on the team in 2019, $6.375 million seems like an acceptable amount.  If the three young players beat him out so he is relegated to fourth, that is a closer call.  If the Packers elect to re-sign Breeland and Williams becomes the fifth cornerback, that might bring up the debate we had when deciding on Tretter: how much can a team pay a backup?  The Packers have Tony Brown under contract as well.  All the while one might have to consider whether Williams could move to safety, and look at the situations involving Brice and Clinton-Dix, which are addressed below.

I listed Josh Jones, Spriggs, Murphy, and Montravius Adams simply because they are underperformers.  The cap savings is negligible except for Spriggs, and even there it isn’t terribly significant.  For example, though Adams has $500,000 in cap savings, someone is going to take his roster spot for the NFL minimum of $495,000 or more.  Cutting any one of these four players really is not about cap space.  

This article is about evaluating current players on the roster.  The draft and free agency can also provide replacements for any cap casualties.

Proven Performance Escalator:

Martinez has already earned this escalator (though not technically), which should increase his cap number to about $2.1 million.  Lowry needs to play another 175 snaps this season to earn the escalator and bump his cap number up to $2.1 million.  Fackrell has a chance to earn it as well.  At present, he has played 31.5% of available snap so far in 2018.  He needs to play 35% of possible snaps in 2018 to earn the escalator.  So far Perry and Matthews have not missed much time, but if they do Fackrell’s snaps will increase.  Should Fackrell earn the PPE, his cap hit would increase to almost $2.2 million.  He would have a cap savings of about $2 million.  Would that factor into anyone’s thinking?  Fackrell is still Andy Herman’s highest graded outside linebacker on the Packers. 

Restricted Free Agents:

Brice and Allison will be restricted free agents.  Last year the tenders were $4.149 million for compensation of a first round pick, $2.914 million for a second rounder, and $1.9 million for the right of first refusal/original round.  Since both were UDFAs, the low tender would mean no draft compensation for the Packers if the team didn’t match any offers. 

The Packers could decline to tender Brice, making him an unrestricted free agent.  Non-tendered players are not eligible for the compensatory pick formula.  Someone would probably sign Brice, but probably not for a lot of money and he might not make the acquiring team’s roster anyway.  If not tendered, the Packers could then try to re-sign Brice for modest money or let him walk.  The Packers will have Whitehead and Greene at safety.  The decisions made on Clinton-Dix and perhaps Tramon Williams might factor in.  Should the Packer issue a tender to Brice?  If so, which one?

Allison is also a tricky issue.  His statistics are undeniable: 19 receptions on 29 targets (65% catch rate) for 289 yards, a 15.2 yards per receptions average, and 72.3 yards per game in the four games he has played.  Tenders are not guaranteed: the player has to make the roster to earn the tender.  How do other teams view Allison?  Should the Packers put a tender on Allison (the second-round tender at $3M should scare teams off), keep him for 2019 and decide what to do after the 2019 season when he will be an unrestricted free agent?  A lot depends on how Allison and the rookies play

Players Not Under Contract for 2019:

Below is a spreadsheet with the basic contract information and projected compensatory pick possibilities for players who are not under contract with the Packers in 2019.  Obviously how well these players perform for the rest of 2018 and how their potential internal replacements perform will be most important.  The biggest factor probably is how other teams view these players and what contracts they can or are perceived to be able to command in free agency.

Green Bay signed Breeland, Lewis, Bell, and Toomer after May 8.  I do not believe they are eligible for consideration for compensatory picks. 

As a note, OTC and Sportrac have not included the escalators or the restricted free agent tenders in their cap space projections for 2019, probably because none of them are official and Lowry and Fackrell have not even earned the escalator yet.  Similarly, Allison and Brice are completely absent from their lists of players for 2019, and Martinez, Lowry, and Fackrell are listed at their current contract levels rather than with the escalators.  Both sites show Green Bay with about $45.8 million in cap space (assuming an increase in the cap limit to $190 million in 2019).  If Martinez, Lowry, and Fackrell all earn the PPE, that would reduce cap space by $3.8 million.  If Brice and Allison are both tendered at the lowest level, that would be another $4 million reduction.  We’d still only have 45 players listed and we are sure to have more than 51, so six more players at the $495,000 minimum should be counted, or another $3 million. All that would reduce Green Bay’s cap space from $46 million to about $35 million. 

Green Bay plays some good teams in its remaining games.  It should be an excellent opportunity to evaluate personnel.