Packers Periscope: Week 15 vs. Carolina Panthers

He's baaaaaack!  By now, it's no secret that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will start and play when his Green Bay Packers face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.  Rodgers made the announcement on Tuesday this week, fittingly on 12/12 and ended weeks of speculation as to whether he'd return in week 15 or at all.

This game comes at an optimal time if you're the NFL.  If you're the Packers and Panthers, the jury is out on how ideal the timing is.  Regardless, the game will take place and most of us are just glad to see the return of the brand of Packers football that we've missed for the last two months.

Green Bay and Carolina are entrenched in a battle for a playoff spot in the NFC and this head-to-head match up will settle a lot as far as these two teams are concerned.  Let's take a look at this series through time.

The Past

The Packers lead this series 9-5 and remember, the Panthers began play in the NFL in 1995, just 22 years ago.  These teams have faced each other only five times over the past decade.

The first meeting ever is a very memorable one, especially for Packers fans.  It was the 1997 NFC championship game which followed the 1996 season in which the Packers would defeat the Panthers and go on to win Super Bowl XXXI.  The Panthers' head coach that year?  Dom Capers.  Former Packers coach Kevin Greene was on that Panthers team as a linebacker.

It was Green Bay's first Super Bowl appearance since the Lombardi era and the only that the team that featured head coach Mike Holmgren and players such as Brett Favre, Reggie White and LeRoy Butler would win.

Since then the teams have met sparingly.  In 2011, the Panthers drafted Cam Newton with the first-overall pick and the Packers got an early crack at him that season in week two.  Green Bay got the win and many will remember, also lost safety Nick Collins to what would be a career-ending neck injury.

After a 6-0 start in 2015, the Packers came into Carolina after having lost their first game of the season the week prior and fell short in a comeback attempt.  Green Bay went on to struggle through the rest of that season and it was the Panthers who would eventually represent the NFC in Super Bowl 50.

The Present

The Panthers come in with a 9-4 record and still fighting to win the NFC South.  The Packers are 7-6 and coming off of two overtime wins in back-to-back games and fighting for their postseason lives.  Through all of the scenarios in which Green Bay reaches the postseason, they will need some help along the way and really need to win all three of their remaining games.

Carolina knocked off the Minnesota Vikings last week, handing the Vikings their first loss in a long time.  The Panthers will be plenty confident and head coach Ron Rivera has said they've been preparing to face Rodgers all along.  "Riverboat Ron", as he's called, won't be caught with an unprepared team when one of the league's best comes to town.

The Packers get Rodgers back but still find themselves very short at cornerback.  Starter Davon House won't play this week after suffering a back injury in last week's win in Cleveland.  It's not Josh Gordon, Mike Evans or Antonio Brown and the Panthers rank just 28th overall in the NFL in passing yards per game with just 195.4.  Running with the likes of Damarious Randall, Josh Hawkins and Lenzy Pipkins isn't ideal in a must-win scenario.

Every year late in the season, the Packers (along with several other teams) find themselves dealing with attrition due to injury.  It becomes a common excuse for Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers and the performance of his defense in key late-season games and during the playoffs.  Will the cornerback situation buy Capers more time in his role and give him an out in 2017?

The Panthers run the ball well and rank fifth in the league, averaging 134.5 yards per game.  Green Bay gave up 136 rushing yards to the Cleveland Browns last week.  One factor in Carolina's rushing success is Newton, who is tough to bring down and who runs very well.  It's no secret that Packers defenses have struggled against mobile quarterbacks under Capers.

Last week, Newton needed just 137 yards passing on 13 completions to help beat the Vikings.  It's the second time this season that Newton has those totals in completions and passing yards and Carolina has won both times.  What may look like a good statistical day for the Packers defense may still end in disappointment if they don't get off the field and avoid long drives.

You can toss out the Packers' passing and rushing stats on offense as this is once again Rodgers' offense.  Back up Brett Hundley led the team to three wins in Rodgers' absence but there's no comparison to having #12 back there calling the shots and doing what only he can, in some instances.

Former Packers linebacker Julius Peppers faces his former team for the first time since departing in free agency following last season.  Peppers, 37 years young, has 9.5 sacks on the season, 2.5 sacks better than the Packers sack leader this season, Clay Matthews.  

If you're looking for any type of possible irony, consider that when Rodgers returned from his 2013 collarbone injury, he faced the Chicago Bears and Peppers.  It was on the famous game-winning touchdown throw from Rodgers to Randall Cobb that Peppers was bearing down on Rodgers and was cut off by fullback John Kuhn just in time to preserve the play.  Rodgers will face Peppers and his team in his return from this collarbone injury as well.

While Rodgers has been gone, the Packers have found a running game with rookies Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.  Will it continue under Rodgers' guidance and as defenses are forced to loosen up the in the box and honor the pass?  

Receiver Davante Adams has been out of this world, hauling in five of his nine touchdown catches on the season during Rodgers' absence.  While Rodgers tends to look Jordy Nelson's way more often, Adams did have a game with seven and eight catches from Rodgers earlier this season.

With the Green Bay defense struggling on third down and shorthanded in the passing game, the Packers best chance to win on Sunday is likely to put up 30 or more points.  With Rodgers back, that goal is always possible but Carolina still has the league's fifth-best defense in total yards allowed with just over 300 per game.  The Panthers are giving up just 37 percent of opponent third down tries. 

Green Bay needs to stay out of long down and distance in this game and put the ball in the end zone.  Field goals won't likely get it done on the road against this Panthers team.

The Future

Carolina is currently a three-point favorite on Sunday.  Home teams get three for simply being at home so with the announcement that Rodgers is returning, Vegas seems to see this game as a virtual toss up.

Rodgers will likely be rusty after not playing in live action for eight weeks.  In 2013, he threw two interceptions in his return game and thankfully, it was Jay Cutler and the Bears who were on the other side.  

That was then and this is now and while conventional logic still says Carolina should be the pick in this game, how many are still willing to bet against Rodgers and the Packers?

Green Bay has played extremely well in December under Head Coach Mike McCarthy and with Rodgers/Hundley (and let's not forget about Matt Flynn).  With their backs against the wall in recent years, this team has found a way to win the division or reach the postseason against all types off odds.

Carolina won't want to give up any standing they have in their division chase or the head-to-head tie breaker with Green Bay, should that end up a factor.  Rivera won't want to get down early and have to play catch up and I expect Carolina to be very aggressive on offense early in this game.

Rookie running back Christian McCaffrey has two rushing touchdowns and four scoring catches.  He's had as many as 10 catches in a game and is the type of dynamic player that the Packers struggle to contain.  The best defense against McCaffrey is to build up an early lead and force Carolina to throw it down field to keep up.

My head says to pick the Carolina Panthers but to do so means I'm giving up on what I believe can happen.  It's been said many times before, with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers can beat any team on any given day.  And so it goes, I'm taking the Packers in this one.

Every game is a playoff game at this point and we'll learn a lot about what this 2017 team has to say for themselves over the next three games.  Either way, it's just good to see the 12 jersey behind center.  What a sight for sore eyes.

 

 

 

-------------------

Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts.  You can follow him on Twitter here

0 points
 

Comments (23)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Savage57's picture

December 15, 2017 at 06:20 am

This is a toughie. You have to believe the Packers can win, because the other option involves a priest.

AR comes back, but is a two-month hiatus, then his first game back against a stout defense too much to ask? Maybe the emergent run game shows up.

But as it does so often with this team, it comes back to the defense. Will Cam gash and gain against a team that responds to a read-option offense like its a Stephen Hawking theory? Can they tackle someone without yielding an additional 5-7 yards after first contact? Add in the big-game factor and MM's tendency to come up short in the coaching department and there's some very legit reasons to get nervous.

This one is asking me to put on my homer fan hat and hope for the best, while ignoring that other voice in my ear.

0 points
0
0
Razer's picture

December 15, 2017 at 07:58 am

...Will Cam gash and gain against a team that responds to a read-option offense...

The defense stopping the run and particularly Cam and his reap option will be the game. If we can get a strong 3rd down stop percent, we can get Rodgers on the field - we have a chance.

Heaven help us.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 15, 2017 at 08:05 am

'This one is asking me to put on my homer fan hat and hope for the best, while ignoring that other voice in my ear.'

If your a fan, why do you have to put on your homer hat? If your a fan don't you want to root for your team no matter what?

I honestly don't understand this 'homer' stuff. If your a fan of your team. Don't you root for them regardless?

0 points
0
0
Savage57's picture

December 15, 2017 at 08:31 am

I don't like hats as a rule, but for this one and the odds the Packers are facing, I'll wear one.

The other thing I don't like, no, despise would be a more accurate term, is other fans telling me how to be one.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 15, 2017 at 09:04 am

I gotcha with the hat part. I was a bit confused with it.

Trust me I'm not trying to tell you how to be a fan. And when I said, (if your a fan) I wasn't directing that directly at you. Just in general.

I just don't get the 'homer' stuff.

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 15, 2017 at 12:14 pm

Not your finest hour, RC (yeah, that got edited down from a less than civil phrase). Savage and Jason are just analyzing the game. No where in Savage's comment or in Jason's article is there any suggestion that they won't be rooting for GB. You just made that part up.

I assure you that my homer hat is on my head during every GB game. It is not safe for my cat to sit on my lap during a game - there's a decent chance he will go flying through the air during an exciting play. I am certain that every player on our team is capable of making a great, game-winning play, even those I rate as bad players. I just don't wear the homer hat the rest of the time.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 15, 2017 at 12:51 pm

Why? I was asking about the homer hat part. Basically all it was... I think there was a misinterpretation in what I was trying to say and how it probably reads.
I wasn't trying to attack his fandom or anything. I was talking about fans in general.

Due to people like Samson, I hate the term homer...

When I see that term to me its a negative thing about people that are fans of any team.

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 15, 2017 at 04:01 pm

Ah, you've developed a trigger. I don't really blame you - I've got a trigger or two myself. For whatever reason, Cheesehead has more than its fair share of relentlessly negative posters. I've been accused of being relentlessly negative myself and I've had my fandom questioned right here on Cheesehead.

I wear the homer hat during games, but it comes off the rest of the time. Okay, it probably goes on an hour or three before each game. My only point is that I do put on and take off the homer hat, yet I always root for GB. Always, and I imagine Savage and Jason do too. I found it difficult to parse parts of your post as other than an attack on fandom, but I edited my initial reply before I even submitted it because I figured based on the totality of your comments that you didn't mean how it kinda sounded. Now I have to decide whether to take GB or Carolina in my weekly pick em, and my homer hat will not be on. I usually give the benefit of the doubt to GB (to my cost this season), but I really want to beat one other person in the league who likes to talk trash.

We are all good. As another poster just wrote, we should all just reset and move on.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 16, 2017 at 09:42 am

lol, i guess you could say that.
I get tired of people being called homers because they are a fan of a team. Basically its just people trolling and annoying.

Like I said I meant no disrespect to Savage.

Onto Carolina with QB1 back in fold!

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 15, 2017 at 07:13 am

To me this game will be decided in the Packers run defense. Which also includes defending the screens and Cam running.

Carolina doesn't really have a big time deep threat, so hopefully we won't be seeing the safety's dropping 35 yards off the LOS down after down.

I'd like to see Josh Jones playing near the LOS a lot in this game. Spying Cam, going with McCaffrey and blowing plays up. I think he maybe my X factor in this game. Its between him and Burnett for me.

As far as the offense goes. With Rodgers back, i'm not going to expect fire works right away. He has been off for a long time. He will probably have some rust. But I do expect to see a more efficient offense. Less 3 and outs. I think we will see the ball spread out more, and they will continue to run the ball.

Like when Hundley was playing I just don't know what to expect for this game. I hope for a victory, but won't be surprised of anything in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if they won by a little or lost by a lot. Just like I would not be surprised that they lost by a little or the team is so energized up from the return of Rodgers that they blow out Carolina. I can see anything happening honestly.

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 15, 2017 at 01:09 pm

I agree with all of this. Josh Jones is made to spy guys like Newton, though spying has to take a bit away from coverage. If he is tasked with this, he needs to be disciplined, and not have mental lapses. Burnett can do it, too. Some of this is strength versus strength - their run offense versus our run defense.

Carolina has been remarkably healthy on Defense. 6 of the preferred 11 starters have started every game. 2 have started 12. 2 have started 11. 1 has started 10 of the 13 so far. Vernon Butler is strictly rotational with just 245 snaps. Carolina drafted two CBs in 2016, one in the 2nd and one in the 3rd. CB Bradbury started 13 games as a rookie and every game this season. The 3rd rounder, Worley, started 11 as a rookie and 11 of 13 so far this season. Both have been okay. So nice to have rookies come in and play right away as rookies and 2nd year guys. Capt Munnerlyn just rotates in (42% of snaps). The CBs and safeties aren't world beaters, but they are NFL average or a little better, at least they are with that pass rush. The offense doesn't scare me, but I look at 4 OL playing at least 97% of the snaps and a fifth at 82% with envy.

Carolina has playmakers on the DL, and at LB, and a decent secondary. Truthfully, while I think Clark and Daniels can help any team, I don't think any packer player would be an obvious upgrade for Carolina. Maybe Burnett? Probably Daniels and Clark would displace Star Lotulelei (and by extension, Vernon Butler).

0 points
0
0
NickPerry's picture

December 15, 2017 at 07:52 am

This game will come down to a few basics IMO. The Packers are going to have to protect Rodgers (obviously) but how much extra help will Spriggs need will be an important factor. Julius Peppers comes in as a 3rd down pass rusher and I'd imagine will be lined up on Spriggs early and often. The Panthers can also get a ton of pressure up the middle with Kawann Short. How well the Packers protect Rodgers will be huge.

On defense the Packers have to be able to DEFEND the screen pass!!! Randall HAS played better these last few weeks, but teams have also thrown a ton of screens against the Packers because of their inability to defend it. Christian McCaffrey must be licking his chops after watching the Packers trying to defend a simple screen pass, especially these last few weeks.

This Sunday the Packers HAVE to have a fast start. They can't allow the Panthers to get out to a 14-0 or 21-7 point lead. If that happens the Packers offense becomes much more predictable and Rodgers may as well have a target on his back. They can't forget what helped them win a few games, even when Hundley was throwing for 84 yards. They'll need Williams and Jones to continue to be at least somewhat effective to beat the Panthers.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 15, 2017 at 07:59 am

Yup. I agree with pretty much everything.

On the other hand, if they could get out to a 14-0, 21-7 type of lead, that could do a ton for them.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

December 15, 2017 at 08:17 am

Others have said it here, I'll re-emphasize it: it is vital that the Packers play from in front. That's what they're built to do. The Carolina offense isn't built to play from behind. Make Newton try to win with his arm...it's been two years since he's shown any ability to do that on a regular basis.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 15, 2017 at 08:53 am

Completely agree.

The problem with the Hundley led offense is that after the first drive the offense had no consistency until the 4th quarter.

Hopefully with Rodgers, he can keep the offense going. And add a lot more points earlier in game. FG's is better then punts.

0 points
0
0
fastmoving's picture

December 15, 2017 at 02:29 pm

solid points................
the only thing I see different: I would say the AR got the target on his chest. But thats just a matter of point of view I guess......

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

December 15, 2017 at 08:14 am

Carolina really isn't a very good offensive team. They thrive on big plays and field position/TOs from their defense and the ability of Cam Newton to generate some offense with his legs. Newton hasn't been the same since he got his bell rung after his MVP season a couple years ago, and his inability to sustain drives with his arm is a problem for that offense.

If you take Newton's almost 50 rushing yards per game out of the equation, this offense is bottom 3 (and, yes, I realize that the play-calling and results obviously change if you remove that contribution, but you get the picture). The game plan begins and ends with controlling the line of scrimmage and the Carolina run game. Can't let Newton make extra first downs with his legs. He runs over 7 times per game (so he averages over 5 ypc), and those are frequently draws.

Crowd the line, take Stewart away and make Newton beat you with his arm and a decidedly average (or worse) group of receivers. That's the first step I'd take this week. McCaffrey is a wild card, a lot like Duke Johnson last week. In fact, this offense looks a lot like Cleveland except that Newton is more of a threat to run (and isn't going to turn the ball over as much) than Kizer, and Cleveland has better receivers.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 15, 2017 at 08:32 am

I completely agree.

That's why if they can slow down the run game, I think they can be beat, offensively.. Also Cam is not the most accurate of QB's.

IMO, they need to bring the safety's up more and use them to defend McCaffrey and Netwon. They almost have to have someone spy Newton.

I think Thomas or Jones should be the guys to spy him.
Ryan hasn't been practicing and after last week game that's probably a good thing. He was really bad. Also the Panthers have speed at RB and Ryan can't keep up with that speed. If they bring Thomas in I wouldn't mind seeing them doing some blitzing up the middle. He can add pressure up the middle.

I do agree that there are similarities in the Panthers and Browns offenses. Stewart similar to Crowell. McCaffrey similar (but better) to Johnson. Newton a better and more experienced Kizer. Browns Gordon and Coleman are better then Panthers WR's. If Olson plays he is way better then Browns. But there are similarities for sure.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

December 15, 2017 at 08:49 am

Olsen's got a bad wheel. He's been ineffective (and essentially invisible) since returning from his injury. That says something because Newton has always been looking for him in the past. I think that Njoku and DeValve have more value right now than Olsen does.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

December 15, 2017 at 09:00 am

yeah, i mean to say if Olson is healthy...

Burnett hasn't been quite as good since returning from his injury as he was earlier in the year, but Burnett has been really good at covering TE's.

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 15, 2017 at 04:52 pm

OG Trai Turner out.
LB Shaq Thompson out.

House is out as expected.
Perry, Spriggs Ryan questionable.

0 points
0
0
Qoojo's picture

December 16, 2017 at 01:35 pm

Expecting 60+ total points in the game. I wouldn't be surprised if the panthers do not punt. I don't expect the packers to get much of a pass rush, so Cam will have all day. When they do get close, Cam will run for big yards.

Packers D gave up a lot of yards against Browns and Bucs, but got some turnovers. They will give up a lot of yards against the panthers too, but if they do not get the turnovers, then packers season is over.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

December 16, 2017 at 02:24 pm

If Cam Newton finds a rhythm throwing against the Packers, they're sunk. He's been an erratic passer this season and hasn't carried them with his arm. I'd go as far as to say that the Packers need to play a lot of base to stop the run, and force Newton to beat them throwing the ball.

0 points
0
0