Packers on Historic Pace at Avoiding Turnovers

The Packers are on pace to break the franchise record and tie the NFL record for turnovers in a season.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers by Jeff Hanisch—USA TODAY Sports.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers by Jeff Hanisch—USA TODAY Sports.

The Green Bay Packers are three games away from potentially completing a historically good season protecting the football.

Through 13 games, the Packers have just eight turnovers—including zero over the last four games. If the team’s current pace holds, Green Bay will finish the 2014 season with 10 giveaways (9.8, to be exact). The franchise record for turnovers in a season is 14, set by the 2011 club. The NFL record is exactly 10, which was done by two teams: the 2010 New England Patriots and most recently by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. 

The protective Packers haven’t had a giveaway since the first half of Week 10, when receiver Randall Cobb lost a fumble while trying to extend for the goal line against the Chicago Bears. 

Another turnover-free home game Monday night against the Atlanta Falcons kept the Packers at just three giveaways at Lambeau Field this season (over seven games). The home turnovers are as follows: a botched snap on the first offensive snap vs. the New York Jets in Week 2, a Matt Flynn interception in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5 and Cobb’s fumble. 

“It makes us tough to beat, when we’re not giving the other team a short field or giving them a turnover that directly leads to points,” Rodgers said Tuesday during his weekly radio program with Jason Wilde of ESPN Milwaukee. “We feel like we should win our games.”

The Packers are 17-2-1 when they don’t have a turnover since 2011, and a perfect 7-0 this season. 

The team’s one statistical outlier came in New Orleans, where the Packers gave away the football three times. Rodgers had two passes go off receiver’s hands for interceptions and Flynn lost a fumble in the fourth quarter. The game marked just the second time since 2011 that the Packers had three or more turnovers in a game started by Rodgers (Week 3 vs. Cincinnati, 2013).  

In the five games since New Orleans, Rodgers has thrown 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s on pace to throw 43 touchdowns and just four picks this season. 

Rodgers’ other interception in 2014, which came way back in Week 1, was the result of an inaccurate pass that clanked off Jordy Nelson’s hands in Seattle. He still hasn’t thrown a home interception since late in the 2012 season. 

The Packers’ only other turnover in 2014: an Eddie Lacy fumble (returned for a touchdown) in Week 3 against the Detroit Lions. 

Essentially, Green Bay has dealt with three somewhat avoidable interceptions, two bad plays from a backup quarterback, two fluky plays handling the football and one crucial ball-securing mistake early on in Detroit. That’s it. Keep in mind, the season is entering Week 15. 

Currently, there are only six teams that have less than 16 turnovers, or double Green Bay’s total. 

Since Week 11, every team in the NFL has at least two turnovers—except for the Packers.

“Well, that’s the goal,” Rodgers said, when asked if the spotless streak would continue. “Every week, to play a clean game. If we don’t turn it over, we’re going to put ourselves in a great position to win the game. That’s how you have to play in this league. That’s been a recipe for success over the years under Mike McCarthy.” 

Rewriting the club’s franchise record feels like a lock. Anything more than six turnovers over the final three games would be a huge departure from how the Packers have operated over the first 13 games. But breaking the NFL record will be difficult given the final three opponents on Green Bay’s schedule.

The Buffalo Bills currently rank second in the NFL in takeaways with 28. Buffalo has 17 interceptions and 11 fumble recoveries, and last week, the Bills intercepted Peyton Manning twice. Extending the turnover-free streak to five games would be a tremendous achievement for the Packers next Sunday. 

Lovie Smith’s Buccaneers are tied for 16th with 20 takeaways. But the Packers will go on the road to Tampa Bay, where the Bucs have only five of their 20 turnovers this season. The Lions, Green Bay’s Week 17 opponent, are tied for ninth in the NFL with 22. Detroit has eight games this season with two or more takeaways. 

Two or fewer turnovers over the final three games will be a challenge, but if any group can pull it off, it’s probably this one. 

Arguably no team in NFL history has been better at avoiding turnovers than this Packers team through 13 games. Take away two bad plays from a backup quarterback and Green Bay would have just six with three games remaining. That’s an incredible feat, and a credit to the way Aaron Rodgers plays and Mike McCarthy coaches. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

NFL Categories: 
0 points
 

Comments (6)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Evan's picture

December 10, 2014 at 11:07 am

What's the over/under on INTs for Rodgers for the remainder of the regular season? 1?

0 points
0
0
GBfaninMn's picture

December 10, 2014 at 12:39 pm

I hate discussion of records/stats like this during the season. Feels like tempting karma. Usually a recipe for disaster. But what ever number they finish with, should come with an asterisk for Flynn's contribution. Subtract those two when games were already decided and you really see something special this season. Our hands coaches need an at-a-boy. Go Pack!

0 points
0
0
TommyG's picture

December 11, 2014 at 07:27 am

Every single time the commentators mention this stat on TV, which seems to be during an important drive, I cringe. It is as if speaking of the near perfection will somehow cause it to fall apart.

0 points
0
0
lucky953's picture

December 10, 2014 at 03:51 pm

Breaking the NFL record and winning an NFL Championship: what a season that would be. It's possible and that's really fun to think about. Amazing job by the Packers thus far.

0 points
0
0
TommyG's picture

December 11, 2014 at 07:24 am

Zach, where did you get "9.8 to be exact"? How does a team have a fractional giveaway?

0 points
0
0
cmc13's picture

December 11, 2014 at 01:16 pm

8 turnovers over 13 games translates to x turnovers over 16 games.

8/13 = x/16 solve for x
16*8/13 = 9.846153846153846 expected turnovers by the end of the season.

What he was saying that is while the team is headed for 10 turnovers based on trends, technically it's less than that, but only a little.

0 points
0
0