Packers Must Pressure Brady this Time Around

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Packers Must Pressure Brady this Time Around

Perhaps the biggest key to victory for the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game is that they need to pressure Tom Brady this time around.

By Paul_Bretl

Jan 22, 2021

41 comments

We all remember how things went back in Week 6. But like many others have said this week, I'm here to tell you that that game has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the NFC Championship.

The Green Bay Packers proved over the course of the season that their implosion down in Tampa Bay was the outlier. Not the other way around. However, that doesn't mean that there aren't things that can be learned or improved upon from that game.

And one of, if not the most important change that needs to take place on Sunday is that this Packers' defense must put pressure on Tom Brady.

The Green Bay defense, unfortunately, was unable to do this the first time around. According to Pro Football Focus, of Brady's 27 dropbacks, he was under pressure on only five of them, and he wasn't sacked once. But when Brady has been under duress this season, he hasn't only struggled as many quarterbacks do, but he's been well below average.

Out of 42 eligible quarterbacks, Brady's completion rate under pressure ranks 33rd. His passer rating ranks 28th, and his five interceptions -- which account for nearly half of his 2020 total -- were the fourth most this season.

Once more, as Football Outsider's Aaron Schatz pointed out on Twitter, by DVOA, Brady ranked 30th when under pressure and averaged a mere 2.3 yards per play.

"This is a guy if you don't get pressure on him, he can pick you apart. We can't make stuff easy on him. We've got to change up looks, and we've got to get after him, Adrian Amos told reporters."

The formula for success against this Bucs' offense is there--and that's to pressure Brady. But, of course, that's easier said than done.

Brady, with his experience, is excellent at diagnosing the defense pre-snap, as well as when the play develops. And he's certainly not afraid to take the easy completions all day long if they are available. This means that the ball oftentimes isn't in his hands very long. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Brady held the ball on average for 2.57 seconds this season, the ninth shortest time out of 41 eligible quarterbacks.

With Brady getting the ball out quickly and him rarely leaving or even doing much moving within the pocket, that makes the lives of his offensive linemen much easier as well. The Tampa offensive line has allowed the fourth-fewest sacks this season, but they rank 12th in pressures allowed and 17th in ESPN's pass-block win rate metric. So there is success to be had by this Green Bay defensive front.

As you can see by their rankings, there is a bit of contrast between sacks given up by this offensive line and pressures allowed. While sacks are certainly great, and no one is arguing that they aren't, as Packers' OLB Coach Mike Smith passionately talks about, consistent pressure can affect the game just as much:

“I care about pressure, affecting the quarterback, that’s the No. 1 thing. I’ll take a guy that does his job play after play after play after play, being consistent and have zero sacks, but does his job and affects the quarterback,” Smith said via Packers Wire.

At least one big difference between this week and the last time these two teams met is the level at which this Packers' defense is playing. It was a slow start to the year for this unit, to say the least. Two key areas that they thrived in during the 2019 season, generating pressure and red zone defense, they struggled with early on this year.

After Green Bay's Week 6 matchup with the Bucs, they ranked near the bottom of the NFL in each of these categories--like I mean almost dead last. But their red zone defense performed really well over the final month of the season, and the Packers ended up finishing eighth overall in that category, allowing a touchdown only 57.6 percent of the time.

In terms of pressure on the quarterback, over Green Bay's last six games, including the Divisional Round, the Packers have generated at least 20 pressures in four of them, along with a season-high 28 against Philadelphia.

Two reasons behind their recent success is that the players are simply just playing better. But it's also not a coincidence either that Mike Pettine has dialed up more blitzes as well. After the previous Tampa game, Green Bay's blitz rate was at 16 percent and ranked 28th in the NFL. They're currently blitzing nearly 25 percent of the time, a steep increase from where they once were.

“Our coaches have done a much better job as the season’s progressed, getting better with our rush patterns or whatever it is we’re trying to get accomplished upfront,” head coach Matt LaFleur said via The Athletic. “But also, those guys just screaming off the ball. A lot of pass rush, obviously there’s a lot of technique involved with that, but a lot of it too is just playing with that energy and the effort that you need.”

Pettine told reporters on Thursday that "we're going to throw our fastball." Meaning, the Green Bay defense may not be able to fool Brady and the Tampa offense, but they can execute better than them.

And with as many resources as the Packers have spent on the defensive front, they have several players who can wreck this game for Brady. Za'Darius Smith always seems to come up with a few big plays a game. Rashan Gary is playing at an extremely high-level, totaling seven pressures on only 22 pass-rush snaps last week. Preston Smith is playing with more consistency, and Mr. December, Kenny Clark, has been on a tear the last month.

Pettine can provide this group some help by sending blitzers and taking away the easy completions from Brady, forcing him to hold the ball even a split second longer. But ultimately, it comes down to execution, and the defensive front just simply needs to make plays--which as Kenny Clark told reporters, they are well aware of this:

"That's the biggest thing with Brady. The teams that beat him this season or even just in his career period in big games got pressure on him. That's a huge thing that we've got to do, is get pressure on Tom Brady."

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Born and raised in Green Bay, WI and I still call it home. After my family, watching the Packers, sharing my opinions on the team through my writing and interacting with other fans is my greatest passion. You can find me on Twitter at @Paul_Bretl.

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