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Packers Mock Draft Monday 12.0

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Packers Mock Draft Monday 12.0

Ross will provide a semi-weekly roundup of national mock drafts relating to the Packers picks.  This simulation used The Draft Network's Predictive Board.  For the first time in a few weeks, Ed Oliver was gone when the Packers got on the board at 12.  In 2019 the Packers will pick six times in the first four rounds, so those are the rounds that we will focus on.

In this simulation, the Cards did not take Murray at #1 overall, but both he and Haskins were gone by the time number 12 came around.  As far as popular Packers targets, Jawaan Taylor went #9, Oliver #10 and the Bengals sniped TJ Hockenson at #11.  I'm able to secure Burns, who provides a different style of pass rusher than the bruisers the Packers signed on the second day of free agency.  The rest of the first three rounds are nothing but taking the highest player on the Packers Big Board.  Fant is available as possible Packers targets Amani Oruyiware and Jerry Tillery go the last two picks before #30.  Thornhill, Adderley, and Abram all available at 44.  CGJ is gone.  That's fine with me, as I have Thornhill as S1.  Speaking of guys I'm higher on than others, Deebo Samuel is available at pick 75.  That's WR2 for me, but this simulation has Metcalf, Harry, Butler, the Browns, Parris Campbell, and Kelvin Harmon all off the board before 75.  Again, fine with me.  Justice Hill is a weapon out of the backfield with spread experience and Yosuah Nijman is a Power 5 OT with a 9.87 (!) RAS.  Nijman is an automatic Packers watch player.  
Kyle Crabbs, The Draft Network - Ed Oliver, Fant, Samuel, Michael Deiter, Sione Takitaki, Justin Hollins- It's almost as if Crabbs knew exactly what he's doing.  So refreshing for a guy who writes about every team taking the time to understand the needs and tendencies of the team making the picks.  Oliver, Fant, Samuel, Takitaki and Hollins are are 8.4+ RAS guys.  FREAK athletes.  Deiter is an average athlete at tackle and is at the one spot they've shown they'll take a "hit" with RAS (DBak 5.33, Cole Madison 4.59).  I'm also higher than most on like all of these guys.  The only thing keeping this draft from being an A++++ is the lack of a safety.  Green Bay would either have to sign a safety or move Tramon/Josh Jackson.  
Dane Brugler, The Athletic - Devin Bush, Parris Campbell, Dalton Risner, Dawson Knox, Charles Omenihu, and Mike Edwards- another 7 round mock that I had the chance to rip through the first four rounds of.  This one is not quite as awesome.  I don't really like Parris Campbell anywhere in the first three picks that Green Bay owns.  He, like N'Keal Harry are gadgety players and you can get those later on if you need them.  The Risner and Knox picks are awesome.  Picking Omenihu two spots before Ben Banogu goes and selecting the undersized Mike Edwards at safety give me concern.
Dan Kadar, Mocking the Draft (SB Nation) - Jonah Williams and Nasir Adderley- this is one I could do without.  I feel like if you leave Thursday night with Williams and Adderley and you didn't trade down at all to make these things happen you have to be a little disappointed.
Cyntiha Frelund, - TJ Hockenson, Elgton Jenkins, Andy Isabella -  Frelund pitches this mock as one steeped in analytics.  That's fine, except the Packers are extremely unlikely to take three offensive players in their first three picks and the one place they don't need to add to the offensive line is a with a center-only prospect like Jenkins.  This one doesn't really work.
Robert Klemko, MMQB - Fant and Jonathan Abram- I can't really abide taking Fant right in front of both Burns and Sweat.  Abram is the one safety prospect that I just can't see playing free, so I devalue him as well.  I'm going to pass on this scenario.
Luke Easterling, DraftWire - Hockenson, Mack Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Michael Deiter, Devin Singletary, Renell Wren- I like a lot of these players, I don't like the strategy.  Reaching for Mack Wilson at 30 would be a cardinal sin.  There is a huge gap between he and the Devins, and frankly OBLBs who aren't true difference makers shouldn't be taken in the first two rounds.  Hard pass.  Hard pass on not addressing safety at all.  Singletary isn't a good athlete, not a likely Packers target.  I love Wren.  This ain't the one, though.
Packers Draft Prospect Vid of the Week (no highlights)


Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem 

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (67) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

GBPDAN1's picture

I'm so excited for this year's draft. A few weeks away!

Also, I'd like to give huge props to the Cheesehead TV team for their work on the draft guide. It's awesome. Totally customized for Packers fans and if you haven't order yours, I suggest you do so soon.

I know this sounds like homer plug for the site, but honestly, this is the first year that I purchased the CHTV draft guide, and I'm not disappointed at all.

4thand10's picture

In other news... Cole Madison was at practice today.

CheesyTex's picture

Could be great news.

With Billy Turner on board, this may help explain why Gute seems to feel relatively comfortable with OL.

IMO there is a good chance that at least one from among Siragusa, Light, or McCray will take a big jump this year. Madison, who knows?

At any rate, the OL group now feels much better heading into draft.

Billy Turner Light.

4thand10's picture

Almost to the point where they could either take chances or a luxury pic. Personally, I’d like to see a slot WR/ KR do it all. Or a RB high.

GBPDAN1's picture

I really like your draft as long as Nijman would pan out. If Nijman ended up being a flop, then It would have been a mistake not drafting a quality O-lineman earlier.

We absolutely need to protect Rodgers better for our offense to run effectively (and run block for the new scheme) . We were the 3rd worst sacked team in the league last year. I was happy to hear that the Packers are bringing in Ole Miss’ Greg Little Monday and Washington’s Kaleb McGary on Tuesday. for predraft interviews and physicals.

I do like that you added 3 weapons for Rodgers and the offense, which is huge. And, you address two important areas on D. Overall, I could get behind this draft .

Bryan Chisholm's picture

I like Crabbs draft also. I'd be okay with Bulger's as well. I hope we land one of the freak athletes with a very high ceiling on defense with #12. With a CGJ/Adderly/ Thornhill/Rapp pick at #30.. and maybe nab Risner at #44.. then look at maybe UCLA TE Caleb Wilson, or TE Sterberger maybe OL Max Scharping.. someone to stretch the field or a later round Tackle. Being a great blocker at TE is a plus, but we already have one of the best, but don't have the vertical guy. There's some later in the draft IMO.. which is where they're usually found. The only player on offense I think worth taking at #12 is a TE and OL, and if we're getting that in a later round; then that leaves the door wide open for BPA on defense. If Hock or Fant makes it too #30, take him if not, BPA! Same thing with #44.. look at the best value you're getting.. if anyone has fallen from the 1st (Jacobs, Polite, Simmons) you take them, if not, BPA. Of course if theyre flying off the board at one point, you think about moving around if the one you want is available and you have the capital.

Razer's picture

Ross - if your draft panned out, I'd polish Jersey Al's running shoes for a year and fill your beer stein on demand. At this point, i just want the draft to happen and all these crazy-ass mocks to stop.

Thanks for the all the good work.

Rossonero's picture

Unless the Packers view Hockenson as the 2nd coming of Gronk, then he's not worth the 12th overall pick.

TE is not a premium position. Remember any recent Super Bowl teams: they protect their QB and also rush the QB very well. That's the way to be dominant in the NFL, full stop.

"We have too many pass rushers." - said no one ever

And in a draft class that is rich with pass rushers, it seems silly to me to draft a TE at 12, when we can probably get Fant, Irv Smith or Jace Sternberger later in the draft (either at 30 or in the 2nd round). I don't see any O-lineman outside of MAYBE Jonah Williams, and even then I'd cringe at taking him at #12.

Let's take the best available pass rusher at 12. I'd love to have a rotation of the Smiths, Fackrell and our rookie pass rusher at #12. Sack the hell out of opposing QB's! The one thing that rattles even HOF QB's like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers is pressure.

PeteK's picture

No pass rushers early for me . You are correct, rush and protect QB. We just spent millions on pass rush, who's going to protect the QB. I would take T's Taylor ,Ford or Williams before an edge rusher.

jannes bjornson's picture

They are bringing in the OTs for visits for a reason. OT in the first or second round. Anyone who thought the line play was exemplary last season is seeing triple. Good news for Madison. See if he has the fire to compete.
Gutekunst wants five solid guys and three capable backups. No more UDFA
whiffing on Mack or Barr this year. Rodgers stays clean.

porupack's picture

Was MSweat gone before pick #12? Listened to CHTV podcast on MSweat, and they were pretty down on BBurns when compared. Why Burns over Sweat?

NitschkeFan's picture

No to Ross once again.

I'm so happy that none of the other mocks including CHTV Draft Guide mock draft (and I'm confident that Gute too) do not wait until pick #118 to address the OL.

I do give Ross credit for trying to draft other offensive players to perhaps boost the offence without OL help.

Ross Uglem's picture

BTW Cole Madison is actually back.

NitschkeFan's picture

Thanks Ross, I was afraid to mention the name LOL!

I hope the young man is on the road to a complete recovery. If he can play football great, if not no biggie. Just hope the Packers plans don’t get messed up by uncertainty.

Does this potentially change Gute’s plans for the draft? Like having an extr 5th round pick.

Kaleb McGary and Greg Little come in for visits :)

stockholder's picture

I love your draft! Best one yet! But I still think they will go Dt over Burns. So for me I would take Wilkins first @12. then Burns, if Bush is gone. That way I don't have to go Dt if Fant gets taken ahead either. A free safety should be there at 44. Thornhill is a terrific pick.

leche's picture

Ross- Throughout all of these you keep referring to pure athletic ability of players as a key draftability point... But isn't it moves like this that led us to overpaying to move up and draft a bad football player like Oren Burks? Isn't it a bit concerning that you're ruling out guys who are by all accounts good football players over concerns of their relative athleticism?

Ross Uglem's picture

1. I can't even tell you how foolish it is to label Oren Burks a "bad football player". Anyone who knows what they're talking about is going to tell you to wait until after year three to evaluate a prospect. A guy like Burks who's going through a position change should probably get through year four.

2. It has nothing to do with me. None of this does. The things that I write and say don't actually affect who the Packers take. The reality of the situation is that over the course of the last two drafts the Packers have taken 8.4+ RAS guys with nearly 70% of their picks. If you're here to learn about who the Packers are likely to take this type of info helps.

leche's picture

That's actually all a fair answer, was just curious since it seemed to be a recurring theme in your weekly posts, which I do appreciate by the way.

I understand it's not you and you are just evaluating suggestions based on what the Packers seem more likely to do given recent history... I guess my real question is ultimately one you can't answer, but why does we seem to be so sold on this methodology given our lack of recent results drafting this way? The last two drafts have seen us use 2nd and 3rd round picks on guys who haven't really contributed much. How are we expecting to build a team with guys who constantly need a few years to develop? I suppose the vision Gute has is different than my own.

And this kind of harks back to Burks. We drafted a guy in the 3rd round who needs to finish his entire rookie contract to be properly evaluated as a football player? I'm just not buying that as being a good decision, and if RAS is what's guiding us to trade up to draft him where we did, then I'm now questioning RAS as a methodology.

Ross Uglem's picture

every player drafted in every round needs at least three years to evaluate

leche's picture

Well that can't possibly be true... Guys step in and contribute right away. We evaluate them immediately based on this. We can't afford to keep drafting guys in the 3rd round who our coaching staff doesn't trust enough to actually put them on the field and help the team. There's just no value coming back from that draft pick.

Ross Uglem's picture

unless he's a full time starter. I didn't say you need to wait three years to PLAY a draft pick you need to wait three years until you actually know what a guy is. Antonio Brown had 167 total yards his rookie year. You just need to be more patient.

Rak47's picture

I like Burns but not at 12 and I like Fant as well, if either are there at 30 I take them. Hate the Deebo Samuel pick, it makes no sense. Can you guarantee the oft injured Samuel will be better than ESB, MVS, G-Mo, J'mon, and Kumerow? No you can't. So tell me why do we need another WR to develop as if five isn't enough? Hate the Justice Hill pick because we don't need an 188 lbs running back who's smaller than Aaron Jones while the team tries to run the ball 30+ times a game. Overall I'd give this draft a B if you get Burns, Fant, Thornhill. An absolute NO to Samuels, Hill, and Nijman. Nijman is a project who is poor to good in pass pro, his tape is literally all over the place. He is not the type of lineman I'd take in RD 4. He's more of a 6th or 7th round project who will probably get stashed on someones practice squad.

dobber's picture

"Can you guarantee the oft injured Samuel will be better than ESB, MVS, G-Mo, J'mon, and Kumerow?"

If what you want out of draft picks is guarantees, then you need to trade them for established NFL players...and I guarantee your cap will suffer.

CheesyTex's picture

Unless your name is Belichek.

porupack's picture

<<<<<his tape is literally all over the place.>>>>

I agree. its all over my garage too and just all everywhere. Damn tape.

Cubbygold's picture

None of this is going to matter because Gute is going to shock the country with an Aaron Rodgers to Oakland trade, picking up all three of their first round picks this year.

GB lands Quinnen Willams, Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Greedy Williams and Nasir Adderley. New era in Packer football and Gruden reaches a new level of QB man-crush.

dobber's picture

I shudder at Drew Lock. Something about him screams 'Jay Cutler' to me.

Cubbygold's picture

I haven't looked at many of these QBs, given GBs circumstances. I do think Haskins is a bust. Broke just about every Buckeye QB record, but I'm not confident that success will translate. If gute was in love with one of the non-kyler murray QBs, this would be the time to take advantage of Grudens trade tendencies. Maybe offer him a 2nd rounder for Carr as well.

EddieLeeIvory's picture

I like it if they give us Derek Carr too!

IceBowl's picture

I guess you are in rebuilding mode.

But if AR IS a problem?

Ross Uglem's picture

the entire premise is ignorant. Rodgers' contract is not tradeable as Green Bay would still be on the hook for the signing bonus. Madden GM-ing.

JLab3's picture

Let's see...leaving aside the value of his contract, Rodgers will turn 37, we have NO answer for 27 year old Khalil Mack, our 'O' line isn't scaring anyone and we ranked 30 out of 32 teams last season in QB sacks given up per game. (And yes, New England gave up the fewest sacks per game.) I'd be thrilled the Dan Kader (SB Nation) picks of Jonah Williams and Nassir Adderley.

NitschkeFan's picture

Rodgers just turned 35 in December.

So he is NOT 37 (at least not for 20 months or approximately 2 NFL seasons from now).

But I am totally on board with drafting OL help, early and often.

jannes bjornson's picture

So you believe Gutekunst will keep the same Oline for 2019 or that he picks up three guys to move some of the scrubs out and set up a competitive environment. In addition LeFleur will double up Mack with some atheletic TEs that are capable of blocking when he sends the FB and a bigger RB straight at him. Bulaga neutralized him the second half of game one once he got his legs back and Kizer left the game for good.

4thand10's picture

Bulaga, Turner, Madison.... maybe that side is shored up? I still see upside/ improvement in McCray. Plus having Mercedes is a nice bonus, he’s aged, but he can still block well. It will be interesting to see what GB does with the O this year.

leche's picture

Went through another one... At this point I think the only way I'm not taking Devin Bush at #12 is either if he's already gone or if Devin White is there... The LB position just has way too steep of a drop off after him to pass if he's available.

#12- Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
#30- Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
#44- Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia
#75- Andy Isabella, WR, UMass (can't see him being here... I'd still go WR and take Riley Ridley here in his place though)
#114- Bobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma
#118- Damien Harris, RB, Alabama (also can't see him being here)
#150- Wyatt Ray, Edge, Boston College
#185- Armon Watts, DT, Arkansas
#195- Derrick Thomas, CB, Baylor
#226- Greg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest

Bryan Chisholm's picture

Not bad.. although I'm not opposed to getting a OL over Fant, even though I'd be thrilled to have Fant, waiting til the 4th to get a OT is risky IMO.. but we've had success before so, not bad.

blondy45's picture

I agree we need to grab one of the Devin's at 12 if Houston is not available. I would like to trade down if there are 3-4 guys the Packers like at 12, but no lower than the 18th pick. Pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd. Just my opinion, also my first post on Cheese head site. Thanks Gary

blondy45's picture

I mean Ed Oliver from Houston, my bad.

leche's picture

I would take Bush over Oliver at 12 if they're both available though. I get the BPA argument and that Oliver makes more sense from that perspective... But if you go with Oliver you're either reaching for Mack Wilson at #30, or are finagling a trade up in the late 3rd and are ultimately either asking a lot out of Burks (who didn't do much at all last year) or a new rookie to step in and do what Burks couldn't. ILB is the one glaring hole we have left that needs to be solved immediately.

You might be able to get by with a trade down to the mid-teens and still grab Bush, and if you can make that work, awesome. That might be worth the risk but I might just take the best guy to fill the biggest hole we need at the first spot we can get him

stockholder's picture

I would not. The packers have a bigger hole. Wilkerson! Next year will be Daniels. Why haven't Lowrey and Adams made a impact? Were going to lose Lowrey, more than likely too. So You can't keep bringing in flashes. Oliver is no flash. And Neither is Wilkins. (perfect to replace Wilkerson this year) So how does bush; a second round pick make it to @12. Need! The DTs have never been rated below 25. You can't fix the IDL so easy in FA. In Fact if Fant is not there, I would take Simmons or Lawrence. Double dip the first rd. @44 FS. The paCKERS NEED MORE THAN BUSH. They will double dip the ILB if their smart. My choice is Summers and Long. Because what happens if Martinez gets Hurt?

CheesyTex's picture

"...I would take Simmons or Lawrence".

Agree, and in a trade-down of #12 wouldn't it be exciting to get both?

Dragon5's picture

Gute had the chance to get Darius Philon on the cheap...he plays all 3 DL positions. One of the biggest what-if whiffs FA '19. I'm surprised LAC let him walk given his price & versatility.

jannes bjornson's picture

Do like the choice of Takitaki at ILB in the fourth. He is a player. THe DTs from BYU will be hitting the draft next year. THey dominated the Badger front five. The Oliver/Wilkens choices put strength up the middle for that D. You cannot count on Daniels to stay healthy for the entire season. If the core is solid you don't have to worry about the ILBs as much. Where do you put Lawrence? Clark has those reps with a competent backup in Lancaster. #30 goes safety or OT or vice versa @ #44. The talent drops in the O line after the second round, as does the safety group.
#75 is open for a WR/PR guy or a TE like Josh Oliver or Warring. same deal @ #114 ILB #118 WR/PR guy or TE. #150 EDGE.

stockholder's picture

The only way they take Lawrence is to move Clark. Much like Raji. Lawrence does move like a young Raji. Pads are the issue. plus a strength steroid. Lancaster was a surprise. But The packers need more of a pocket push up the middle. Doubt Daniels returns. Wilkins can fill in anywhere. Terrific manner. Oliver could be Arnold/ Randall. And Simmons is an absolute monster.(But hurt) All 4 would be building blocks for the next 5 years. Fant is the game changer. Doubt they could pass on Fant @30. and @44 has become the safety spot if they go offense @30. Thompson, Adderley, Thornhill should be taken then. The ILBs find two. But speed is the issue. Which drove Bush up. Oliver is to small. Wrs are deep again. (After 4th rd.)

leche's picture

1. Bush is going to be long gone by the time we draft at 30... Otherwise I'd just draft him there. He's a first rounder through and through.
2. Next year is a next year problem to fix... The reality is we have 4 years of Rodgers. We can spend it either trying to have the best team possible for each of the 4 years, or we can plan on having the best team possible for 1 or 2 at the end. Bush makes the team better for longer than a DT will, especially Simmons, who won't help us this year no matter what. Drafting him is punting on 2019

stockholder's picture

Next year- Keep this in mind. The packers schedule has .500 written all over it. 8 and 8 could get them in the playoffs. If a team goes to the play offs; it's [email protected] and up. So the chances of getting a starting Dt to replace Daniels are slim to none. The packers selection of Clark was a lucky one. He was coming out early. The DTs were the best in 10 years according to the scouts. The odds of getting an All -pro in the draft are slim to none after the top 20. The odds of getting a starting ILB are better-per Blake Martinez-

leche's picture

So you're basically punting on 2019 anyway? That's 3 years in a row of Aaron Rodgers prime that have been thrown away... Not sure that idea really sits well with me, but it might well be inevitable anyway

stockholder's picture

No to punting. Yes to replacing Wilkerson. Yes for insurance per Daniels contract. You also free cap for the FAs.

draftnut59's picture

I like Bush also and think that a premium OTB linebacker would really elevate this defense. However, I’d rather trade up from 30 than to trade down from 12. But it all depends on who falls to 12. Bush will never make it past Pittsburgh at 20, so you’d have to get above them. I don’t know that I’d give up 30 and 44 to get to 19, but I would definitely give up 30 and 75.

olwig420's picture

The Packers drafted an ILB in the 3rd round last year and they don't value the position very high. There is no way they take one in the first round.

IceBowl's picture

Hi all,
My 2 cents.... pick #12 is going to be a great player (12th best in the country). Trading up is ridiculous (for say the 8th best player and lose a couple of picks - dumb?) Pick 12 you take the best player on your board or trade down a FEW ... copy FEW spots. Then 30th, based on your board, and considering who will be left 14 picks later, best TE/S with the 2nd rnd selection the other position. (Unless NE trades up with you to get that TE - a delicious scenario).

So, with 1st 3 picks and you have the 12th best player in the country (present and future stud), need (TE stud available), and another need (S). AR protection is needed, but i dread to think he feels empowered to hold the ball any longer than he does with more protection. Many mocks have potential OL's available after this point. And the Pack has found them rnd 3 and later for years. (Yes, we do want AR protected) I would be happy to trade TE/S for a dead ringer OL (not Tony Mandarich).

This would be my crap shoot!

jeremyjjbrown's picture

I love how Fant knocks the snot out of two guys instead of going out of bounds like Jimmy Graham Cracker.

Nononsense's picture

12. Oliver or Bush
30. Lindstrom or Dillard
44. Winovich or Adderley
75 Isabella or Omenihu

Got to fortify the lines and or fill our biggest holes, ILB and FS.

EdsLaces's picture

I'd rather have one of the Devins over Burns, but other than that this is a great draft..

Ross Uglem's picture


draftnut59's picture

Why not? It seems to me that Pettine wants to build this defense to be strong up the middle. I’m not trying to be argumentative. It just seems to me that we’ve been weak up the middle since we lost Nick Barnett, and that a premium player like Bush would REALLY help this defense. You know these guys better than we do. If these two are overrated, I’d really like to know.

FYI. I’d still rather have Oliver over Bush.

Lare's picture

Cole Madison reported to practices today. Wonder if that will change their draft needs analysis.

JohnnyLogan's picture

That's big news. Hope the kid does well, not just for the Packers but for himself. Good news all around.

Dzehren's picture

Pleasant surprise. Welcome back Cole.
Hope he earns a spot on the active day roster.
It’s like a free 5th round draft pick.

KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

That is great news for the Pack and for Madison.

I hope he has been working out really hard this past year and is a beast in the running game. They still need an OT but I would say it lowers their need to draft one before round 4.

bbarryirish's picture

Tell it Aaron Rodgers!
Yes! Erase those media hacks and put McCarthy back where he belongs- in the good graces of the Packer faithful.
Remember the entirety of his 13 years! Amazing level of success.
Best of luck to the new regime!
Go Pack Go!!

PackfanNY's picture

Happy to hear that he has gotten himself where he needs to be. Could be a nice addition. I just wouldn’t let that affect how Gutekunst drafts. He hasn’t played football in a year and this is tough enough when everything is right. I look at this as simply another pick in our pocket for the upcoming draft.

KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

Dont see him missing a little less than a year a big deal. He is a professional athlete. If he has been working out he will be fine. Great addition!

olwig420's picture







Swigganz's picture

I'm thinking GB may take a long look at Christian Wilkins. Depending on how the draft falls, he was a high character locker room leader at Clemson who showed the ability to rush the passer and stop the run. Might be a player they peg as the future replacement for Mike Daniels. Personally, I hope they are able to score Oliver, Burns, Bush or Jawaan Taylor at 12, Fant, AJ Brown or Risner at 30, and Thornhill, Adderly, Irv Smith, Winovich, Greg Little or Gardner-Johnson at 44 and Deebo Samuel, Andy Isabella, Savage or Ximenes at 75 .

Rick F's picture

I agree with your draft I had hardman instead of Samuel. They want elite RAS players and that is what they got.

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