Packers fans: Go To Bed Early on Draft Night

 
As it stands now, you may have to stay up as late as 11pm Central time to see who the Green Bay Packers take in the first round of the NFL draft.
 
Don't do it. It ain't gonna happen.
 
Oh, Brian Gutekunst will stick around until his turn comes up at number 30 just in case a blue chipper falls mightily. But the smart money says he trades out and picks up an extra second rounder. It's becoming increasingly clear the guys the Packers truly drool over will be long gone. Virtually all mock drafts show linebackers Isaiah Simmons, Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray rocketing up the chart. Premier receivers Ceedee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs and Justin Jefferson should also get the phone call early.
 
There will be teams eager to trade back up into the tail end of the first round, usually to grab that leftover quarterback. As receiver-heavy as this draft is, it makes abundant sense for the Packers to drop back into early day two and still get value. Add the fact you save the first round money and it's a no brainer.
 
Of course, there is always risk. The last two times the Packers did this the results were mixed. In 2017 Ted Thompson dropped back and got corner Kevin King, a solid starter who led the team in picks in 2019. In 2008 Thompson nailed Jordy Nelson in round two. You know how that turned out. Sadly, Thompson did little with the extra second round selections. In 2017 Green Bay took Josh Jones, no longer with the team. In 2008 the extra pick yielded quarterback Brian Brohm (ugh). But this draft is dripping with second round worthy talent. It's worth another shot.
 
So on April 23rd turn on the draft and see who gets Joe Burrow and Tua. That won't take long. See how the Lions mess up pick number three. Don't worry about the Bears. They are still MIA from the Khalil Mack trade, which is looking worse every year. If you must, stay awake to see the Vikings try to replace Stefon Diggs at number 22, the pick they got from the Bills.
 
Then go to bed. Rest up for day two. That's when the Green and Gold will really get down to business.

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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Comments (49)

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BBlake's picture

March 21, 2020 at 03:44 pm

Probably a wise recommendation.

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Guam's picture

March 22, 2020 at 08:34 am

Trading down might be a good option, but I am not sure you can count on it as a strategy. It takes two to tango and somebody else needs to want to move up. I suspect Gute would be a willing listener if somebody were to make him an offer, but if you advertise you want to trade down you have devalued your bargaining position before you begin.

I don't think trading down as a primary strategy is a good one. Let the board and the offers come to you and evaluate from there.

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PackfanNY's picture

March 21, 2020 at 04:40 pm

Given that the Coronavirus is looming over the draft it’s more than possible that the draft moves more quickly. I doubt players and family will even be in Vegas. If this is still going on it won’t even be a good look cutting to a players house with 20 family members around given social distancing. The first round might be over by 10 central. Anything is possible.

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dark42's picture

March 21, 2020 at 10:42 pm

Hard to see how the draft could go faster. I could see the first round going faster if teams immediately submit their picks for players they've chosen and are on the board.

They still have to give teams time to reassess their picks and adjust to who has come off the board. It gets more and more complicated as players come off the board so many teams will need that time between picks.

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Coldworld's picture

March 22, 2020 at 09:05 am

I’m sure the NFL/broadcaster will pad it out at least early on. With so little going on they will want to make the mist of the draft.

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Turophile's picture

March 21, 2020 at 05:05 pm

While trading down is a nice way to get more picks, who is going to find it worthwhile to trade up and lose those picks ? It only happens if there is a player left on the board at #30 that another team really wants - and the chances of that at #30 is a great deal smaller than trading down with round one picks in single digits or teens.

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fordguy's picture

March 21, 2020 at 05:55 pm

Packers moved up last year to get Savage so it does happen.

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mbpacker's picture

March 21, 2020 at 05:03 pm

Ok, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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stockholder's picture

March 21, 2020 at 05:08 pm

I believe they won't Trade back. The extra year option on a first round Draft pick is to great. Especially if they take that ILB. Just look at Clarke vs. Jones of KC.. $$$$ saved! Trading back better give them more than TT got.

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Lare's picture

March 21, 2020 at 05:59 pm

Gutekunst readily admits that Ted Thompson is/was his mentor. So the question is- "What would Ted do?"

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Coldworld's picture

March 22, 2020 at 09:06 am

Hasn’t really been the case so far though, has it?

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 21, 2020 at 10:29 pm

Move up in both rounds.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 22, 2020 at 01:50 am

Could be. The fifth year option is still valuable, just less so and less predictable than in the past. 2 pro bowls = Franchise tag (average of top 5 contract). 1 pro bowl = transition (ave of 1-10). 75% playing time = average of the 3rd to 20th highest.

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splitpea1's picture

March 21, 2020 at 05:50 pm

At least wait until Murray is off the board before we think about trading down.

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PackFlip's picture

March 21, 2020 at 06:17 pm

No matter how many mocks I do I keep coming back to DL, WR, OT, then best of who's available LB/RB/CB, depending on who is left and/or who falls or not. Have a good feeling there will be any combo of:
1st - Blacklock/Elliot/Gallimore/Madubuike
2nd - Reagor/Aiyuk/Davis/Edwards
3rd - Bartch/Niang/Wanogho/Wilson
4th and beyond its a crap shoot depending on how board falls according to GB big board. Honestly, always impossible to predict. Fun to speculate though!

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ShawnO's picture

March 21, 2020 at 08:30 pm

Good thing the real draft has lots of trades and never goes the way you think it will.

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stockholder's picture

March 21, 2020 at 08:53 pm

No Way they take a DT. Jackson OT, Reagor WR trade , Brooks LB / Kmet TE

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CheesyTex's picture

March 21, 2020 at 09:54 pm

Chase Claypool in 3d round looks like a better bet to me.

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stockholder's picture

March 22, 2020 at 07:07 am

I believe Reagor changes the 3rd. If they go defense; Claypool in the 3rd and Duvernay in the 4th. I took OT over WRs because of the money involved in paying our Ots.

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PeteK's picture

March 22, 2020 at 11:00 am

I fully agree. Also, Reagor has the slot receiver skills and is a solid punt/kick returner. Reminds me of a more durable Cobb.

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murf7777's picture

March 22, 2020 at 08:24 pm

Was Cobb injury prone in college?

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 22, 2020 at 01:56 pm

Reagor will be lucky to fall out of the first, no lower than 36. Move up for two picks in rd. one.

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Packer_Fan's picture

March 21, 2020 at 07:17 pm

I never like to watch the draft. Too much drama for me. And I only care about the Packer's picks.

But..... I could see trading out of the first round and getting their second and third round picks. I see ILB, WR & OT as top three needs. Having another 3rd round, I say pick a DL with the four picks. I have no specific order for those picks. I believe ILB may be difficult to get a top pick in the 2nd round, much less at 30.

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CAG123's picture

March 21, 2020 at 08:03 pm

They have a draft value chart so the only way the Packers are getting a second and third for the number 30 pick is with both picks coming in the back end of both rounds.

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dobber's picture

March 21, 2020 at 08:26 pm

#30 equates to more of a mid-2, mid-3 based on most draft valuation models.

I like drafttek's searchable board best.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=GB

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Bure9620's picture

March 21, 2020 at 09:10 pm

They will not pick at 30, likely to trade back, would love to see them grab Aiuyuk or Jefferson in the early 2and and grab another pick

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CoachDino's picture

March 21, 2020 at 09:53 pm

Lots of good posts advocating sound reasoning for both trading out and staying put.

Couple thoughts...
Ya, trading into the second round is a strong play BUT you don't want to drop more than 10 spots and the value for that is probably swapping 3rd round picks - not even just getting theirs outright. The hope is that a QB (love) drops and someone is willing to overpay to get there. Other than that it's a 20 spot trade up inthe 3rd - which has value.
I'm much higher on Queen than Murray. Murray is nowhere near a polished OBL. He is a physical freak that plays hard and can do things that wow us. His read and react time is not good, shedding blocks or NFL coverage.
Sure he's fast enough the run with TE's and RB's but he will be slow to react and will get turned around by NFL players and Schemes. Doesn't mean I still wouldn't take him at 30 - he is that much a freak and the upside would be tough to ignore.

The online draft tools are fun but suck...Still have guys ranked so far out of whack and haven't updated FA signings.

If it's an IDL at 30 that's the best value take him - same with CB (even more valuable)

I do think by trading back 10 picks you can
WR at 40ish - - There's a bunch of them - take the one you like - or flip flop WR/OT
OT at 62 (I like Ben Bartech I hope he's still here Ezra Clevelands probably gone -) Peart, Naing, Wilson
ILB at 74 (Gay, Wilson, Taylor, Gaither)
(compensation picks added at the end of RD3)
If you can get them to overpay - someone will for LOVE (IF he's there)and flip the 4th round as well it becomes a no brainer
110ish instead of 132ish
RB/IDL that can contribute now in some capacity other than just ST
CB/IOL - Development for 2021
Trump card - Still take the best player available with no need if the talent gap is present.

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stockholder's picture

March 22, 2020 at 10:24 am

Reagor WR @30 ? I believe he is the Front Runner. Do they go back 8 picks.? Taking Jackson at OT means they could trade Bahk. Why? 12 - 15 mil for a aging OT ? Better to trade him, then let him walk.( No OL has gotten a 3rd time contract signing.) ILB- Brooks. But CM3 is a better option to replace Goodson. If Gute has a chance to take Hurts QB in the 2nd or 3rd round he should do it. I also prefer Fotu in the 3rd over Blacklock IDL.

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dark42's picture

March 21, 2020 at 10:29 pm

I'm a firm believer in this day and age, where teams scout players very accurately more often than not, that trading back means almost every team ahead of you got a better player than you did. There's always exceptions but that's why they're exceptions, they're uncommon.

If you're drafting for need it makes some sense to trade back if that's where the best value for your needs are, although the risk of another team with the same needs taking them earlier is always present and unpredictable. But if you're drafting best player on the board, trading back never makes sense.

2 lesser players is never better value than 1 better player for me. I'd rather trade up and give up all draft picks after 2nd round because the value in late 3rd round picks and later is comparable to UDFAs, which can easily serve as camp bodies. So I'd spend my time scouting players likely to go in the 1st 2 rounds, and UDFAs. I'd be very happy with hitting on 2 of 4 picks in the first 2 rounds and UDFAs filling out the remaining roster spots every year - and I'd field a better team every year than someone who traded down and rarely got a great player.

But then no one has offered to pay me to do their draft, so what do I know?! Go Pack go! :)

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DePack's picture

March 21, 2020 at 10:31 pm

They won't pick up an extra 2nd round pick! Their first round pick will now be a 2nd, they'll get a 3rd at best or maybe a 2nd next year. And losing the 5th year option of the 1st round pick does not make this a no brainer, it's actually a negative. If someone is QB crazy and wants to give a favorable deal then of course but for petes sakes don't give up Watt to get King again..

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packfan1k's picture

March 21, 2020 at 11:07 pm

Someone pointed out that trading back out of the first round is not an option because the 5th option year price will be low. That was the case with the previous CBA with the top 10 draft picks getting transition tag salaries but the picks in slots 11-32 getting the average of top 3 to 25 player salaries at their positions. But that is not the case anymore with new CBA. The price tag for the option year is not tied to draft position, so all first round players will get the transition tag salaries, so the option year effectively becomes an exclusive (for the team) transition tag. Thus, the back of the first round is NOT as valuable as before. So, I do agree with the article that we should trade out of the first round and move into early R2 and get a R4 pick in the process.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 22, 2020 at 02:38 am

2 Pro Bowls = Average of the top 5 salaries
1 pro bowl = Average of the top 10 salaries.
0 Pro Bowl + lots of snaps = average of 3rd -20th.
0 Pro Bowl = 3-25th.

The player must be voted into one pro bowl on the original ballot (not as a fill-in for a player who declined to play). Jaire Alexander would have to be named to the pro bowl on the initial ballot in 2020 to get transition money. Gary has 2020 and 2021 to earn pro bowls. Jaire is on target by virtue of playing time to earn the average of the 3rd through 20th highest salaries at cornerback (he has to play at least 55% of snaps in 2020 to qualify).

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Chrischaos's picture

March 22, 2020 at 12:15 am

We need talent out of the first rd pick. If it’s not there-sure-trade back if compensation is adequate. I’d gladly take a stud OT in the first if available. We need some big guys on both lines. WR is deep and can wait till 2/3 unless something falls into our lap. I’d like (not necessarily love) Murray/queen/Baun at 30 but am not sure what’s going to happen there given the poor depth at that pos group. Arguably, none of them are better than 25th or later picks. I’m not nearly as down on king as others have been but the lesson applies-an extra pick shouldn’t trump picking talent. I’d be reluctant to draft a WR in the first-too many prima-donna busts.

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KneelYoung's picture

March 22, 2020 at 12:31 am

Looking forward to the draft. WR, LB and a tackle may be the areas of need. As it stands now the best tackle or WR on the board in the first round. I also think Clay Matthews will be signed in the next week.

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stockholder's picture

March 22, 2020 at 07:27 am

CM3 is the smart play if they go Wr. Or other Offense. Gute didn't lie about FA. So I think he's telling the truth, when he says WRs and LBs. Jackson OT may be to hard to resist.

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mrtundra's picture

March 22, 2020 at 08:09 am

Why take a big step backwards and sign CM3? CM3 did not help our run defense when he was here and that is where we need the most help on our defense. Clay would have to be relegated to playing at the ILB spot and he made it clear he did not want to play ILB. Besides, Clay's legs are gone. I would have rather seen Gute re-sign Fackrell rather than see him go after CM3 .

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stockholder's picture

March 22, 2020 at 08:52 am

Kirksey Changed that. He is now Martinez. For Less. It also knocks out Murray And Queen. CM3 only has to replace Goodson, and he can replace Fackrell. If he won't replace Goodson he should not be signed. If his legs are gone he wouldn't have had 8 sacks last year. He should be around 5mil. Kirksey and CM3 are a better fit. Pettine will not trust the heart of the defense to a Rookie. Rumor is Seattle is looking at CM3 now, with Clowney. Sea. has improved their defense. Regardless Martinez has been replaced.

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PeteK's picture

March 22, 2020 at 11:05 am

Clay is not coming here. I would rather spend 3 mill on Gabriel and Jernigan or Snacks and bank 2 mill.

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 22, 2020 at 02:06 pm

Matthews probably wants to stay on the West Coast. He won't play for Gutedkunst again. The move for Jackson at OT
will require a move up in the first. Do it if he's within range. The second round at #62 is just a high third round pick.

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CAG123's picture

March 22, 2020 at 02:48 am

I feel like we get these articles every year and it rarely happens I’ve personally never been a fan of the idea of trading back just to get some extra late round pick. You guys want extra picks? Well instead of letting contracts of guys like Bulaga and Martinez expire trade them and get something for them there’s your extra 3rd and 5th rounder right there.

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Lphill's picture

March 22, 2020 at 07:55 am

Packers made it to the NFC game and did not go on to the super bowl because the defense allowed a no name running back to have a career day, Gute did not fix this and won’t be able to in the draft. Don’t expect more than a wild card or less this season.

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PeteK's picture

March 22, 2020 at 10:58 am

Please stop, I'm starting to pity you. Remember run stopping ILB are not hard to come by even in the third round.

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mrtundra's picture

March 22, 2020 at 08:14 am

About the only other thing I'd watch the draft for, besides seeing what the Packers do, is to see if the vikings draft Mims to replace Diggs. Mims is one of my WR targets in the draft and I'd hate to see him in purple. That being said, if Mims does gt drafted by the vikings, he will have Cousins as his QB. Maybe Mims will be as fed up with Cousins as Diggs was. That would be nice.

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stockholder's picture

March 22, 2020 at 08:32 am

Higgins before Mims

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taarons420's picture

March 22, 2020 at 09:49 am

Get as many of the following players as possible...
rb: gibson, dillon
wr: aiyuk, bowden, jefferson, pittman, reager, shenault
te: keene, kmet
ol: bartch, cleveland, jackson, peart, simpson, taylor, thomas, williams, wilson
dl: agim, blacklock, elliott, lynch
ed: gipson, highsmith, robinson, taylor
lb: baun, brooks, davis-gaither, dye, murray, muse, queen, taylor, wilson
cb: guidry, hall, robertson, scott, vildor
s: burgess, chinn, dugger, winfield jr
st: reed

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Cartwright's picture

March 23, 2020 at 06:33 am

Unfortunately, with the way things are going, I don't think we are going to have a normal draft. It will either be done at the office, at home or will be cancelled all together until further notice. I hope not, I'm in Europe now and could use the distraction.

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Tedlyflyfisher's picture

March 22, 2020 at 01:18 pm

Hang in there, Cartwright! We’ll get through this!

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Cartwright's picture

March 23, 2020 at 04:58 am

Keep the faith, things will get better, that's what I'm saying to myself daily.

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Archie's picture

March 22, 2020 at 02:19 pm

I have nothing against a small trade back IF the rice is right and the Pack is assured it will get a player of same or very similar value. A R4 pick is not worth giving up quality for, IMHO.

OTOH, a trade up in this draft could land them a muck bigger fish than pick 30 would.

Advice to Gutey - when you are down to the last 2 or 3 guys that are ranked top 20 on your board, go get one, even if you have to trade a future pick to make it happen. Then, if you can't make a reasonable deal, at least you tried, and then you go in reverse provided my opening conditions are met.

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