Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 662 - Could Aaron Rodgers Be Traded Sooner Than You Think?

On today's episode, Andy Herman breaks down his recent article surrounding a possible 2021 Aaron Rodgers trade.

On today's episode, Andy Herman breaks down his recent article surrounding a possible 2021 Aaron Rodgers trade.

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. You can find him on WFRV's Green Bay Nation and every Friday on the Friday Film Room on WDUZ . Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (9)

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sonomaca's picture

May 18, 2020 at 12:27 pm

Very courageous and well thought-out take. That said, before they traded Rodgers, they’d probably want some assurance that Love is capable of playing football at the NFL level (at some point). How do you do know that after one year on the bench? Do you have him start late in the year vs. lesser opponents?

What if you traded Rodgers, and his new team won the Super Bowl? Gruden, despite all the mocking, knows how to win a Super Bowl. Rodgers in New England? Pittsburgh? Denver? Super Bowl possibilities, all.

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DraftHobbyist's picture

May 18, 2020 at 02:43 pm

Preseason tells a lot, despite people loving to mock the preseason. If last year is to be a standard, Love will get a lot of playing time in Preseason (assuming it happens).

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stockholder's picture

May 18, 2020 at 12:28 pm

The bottom line is money. Period! If #12 wants out it should be granted. The new Concern? Honoring Contracts. Love has been drafted to replace Salary. He is a QB and is qualified for the job. How he does isn't the concern. Free Agency is? We No longer need the Hall of Fame in Lambeau. We need a Owner. Bad play will be rewarded for Tax write offs.

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PhantomII's picture

May 19, 2020 at 01:02 pm

Moronic statement especially from someone tagged as stockholder. The main reason I chose to make the Packers my team was they were not owned by some billionaire. They were unique , special, with an awesome past legacy filled with hall of famers. I have never personally been to a shareholder meeting of theirs but it has been obvious
in the past and present if the GM and President are not making the right decisions their is a process to remove them to fix the issue. They have a board and they vote. It is hard to fix several years in a row of drafting misses. We used a lot of money to fix a few key positions but I must say timing is everything. We have a few pieces like A.jones and I really think Sternberger takes a big jump. Nobody on the FO is going to do what you and I think they should do even if we are fundamentally correct. I am with you on the $$$. It almost seems sometimes we draft a player a notch below so if he becomes a starter he gets a low ball salary. Martinez at ILB good kid, good tackler most of the time but not athletic enough for the position hardly any TFL ever. But even he was priced out. BTW if you are sick just think about the Giants, Browns, Lions ,Bengals, etc.

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DraftHobbyist's picture

May 18, 2020 at 03:00 pm

Patrick Mahomes only sat for one year. I know Alex Smith is no Aaron Rodgers, but he had a passer rating of 104.7 in 2017. Smith's year was actually insane throwing for over 4,000 yards in 15 games, 67.5% accuracy, 26 TDs, 5 INTs, and a surprising 355 rushing yards with 1 rushing TD. Smith's final year was comparable to Mahomes's Super Bowl year last year.

I think if we traded Rodgers in 2021, we would be taking a huge cap hit so we would need something massive like two 1st Rounders (maybe over the course of two years if a team didn't have two in one year). Any team we make this deal would have to have the cap space to take on around a $20M contact. That would be the Patrick Mahomes path.

If we traded Rodgers in 2022 or 2023, a deal could look more at taking a good player or two (maybe with a Draft pick) even to a team that doesn't have much cap space. We basically swap contract values, we and the other team improve a position of need (maybe this year we'd take an OT or OT and WR while they get their QB), and we make a run with Jordan Love. So I think the year Rodgers gets traded will influence what the trade is for (players or picks).

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dobber's picture

May 18, 2020 at 09:07 pm

"I think if we traded Rodgers in 2021, we would be taking a huge cap hit "

The dead money is there regardless. But the Packers would get about $5M back on the cap that they would've paid out if ARod were on the roster in 2021 if they trade him after the 2020 season. Problem is, we have no idea what to expect about the depth or quality of the 2021 draft...especially if college football either misses or plays a highly truncated season.

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DraftHobbyist's picture

May 19, 2020 at 12:14 am

The dead money reduces over time, so the earlier we trade him the more cap impact there is.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 20, 2020 at 03:17 am

True. However, on a sliding scale, the longer GB holds on to AR the fewer years the franchise gets the benefit of having a cheap starting QB.

This is largely a moot point for now. Unless and until Love shows he can play at a reasonably high level, AR will (or at least should) remain a Packer. Love can do that in practice or in NFL games. AR only attempted 59 passes in his first three years, after all.

I already wrote an article outlining the exact cap consequences of trading AR at various trigger times over the next three seasons, including positional spending on the QB for various scenarios.

Love would have to be deemed to be a better QB for GB to trade AR in June of 2020. Cap saving is tiny.

Mar., '21: Love would have to be deemed better than AR since cap savings is just $4.79M. {How much is a 1st round pick plus something more worth in the 2022 draft worth to GB?}

June, '21: $15M to $22M cap savings, but not gained until June. What talent can be added that late? Might be some - Clowney is out there. Probably need to think Love is equal to or better than AR, but it is murkier. I mean, with $15M/$22M, GB could sign a #1 WR, LT, top DT, etc., or a couple of good players, and have some draft picks received for AR for 2022.

Mar., '22: $22.6M in cap savings means AR has to be better than Love to stick around. Money and picks would offset modest difference in production.

First trigger is in March of 2021. Love would have to prove things to GB in 2020 for it to be an issue.

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lsparsek's picture

May 18, 2020 at 03:32 pm

Not to get ahead of ourselves but in this Roger's traded scenario, after two or three years if Love isn't working out, there could still be time to reload at QB while the talent on the team is still stacked for a playoff run. Heck, Love's replacement could be on the bench already.
These scenarios Andy's presented could give Aaron challenges and opportunities for him to solidify his legendary status wherever he finishes his career.
Because of the personalities involved, the scenario that actually plays out could be a big win for everyone. Really exciting Packer times!
Some great stuff Andy! Thank you.

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