Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 577 - Special Guest: Ken Ingalls

On today's show, Jason Perone and Paul Bretl are joined by salary cap expert Ken Ingalls to review the state of the Packers' salary cap. Enjoy!

On today's show, Jason Perone and Paul Bretl are joined by salary cap expert Ken Ingalls to review the state of the Packers' salary cap. Enjoy!

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. You can find him on WFRV's Green Bay Nation and every Friday on the Friday Film Room on WDUZ . Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 22, 2020 at 01:02 pm

$7.07M is the average rollover each year for the packers.

$23.2M
$1.428M for PS
$1.02M for 52nd and 53rd players
$7.5M churn/activity in-season. Prudent- could be shaved.
About $13.25M net. This is ~
$8M + $4.1M (Graham Taylor cut/trade)
$25.35 Net circa ~
-$7.5M Bulaga first year cap #
-$2.56M Clark ($10.25M - $7.69M but I have big issues w Ken's #s)
$15.29M net
-2.2M Marcedes Lewis
-$3M Crosby ($5M AAV @ 60% = $3M 1st year cap hit)
-1M Ervin (likely 1 year, could be $820K esp. on a 2 yr deal)
$9.09M Spendable Net
-0.5M for all of the ERFAs
-2.9M for draft picks (Rule of 51)
$5.69M spendable. Ken comes up with $6.25M to spend. Close enough.

30% Rule: Non-signing bonus compensation can increase by a maximum of 30%. It is a serious obstacle, but there are tons of loopholes, some of which require some cooperation between the player and team.

D.J. Humphries $15M AAV $29M guaranteed (waiting to see if the actual deal is really this amount). Outlier or setting the market? Humphries is 26 vs. 31 for Bulaga; LT vs. RT. Humphries has had injuries: played 0*, 13, 5 in 2017, 9 and 16 games last year. MCL and concussion = 4 games in 2017, and then a dislocated knee cap and MCL = 7 games missed. "Head coach Bruce Arians nicknamed him "knee-deep", explaining that you need to keep "A knee in his ass everyday" to keep him motivated." Knee injury in week 10 of 2018 and missed the rest of the season. He was a first round pick who was inactive all 16 games despite being healthy in 2015. Sportrac had him at $14.1M, so $15M, if true, is not really shocking. No way I'd give him $29M guaranteed at signing, think it is closer $12M when the details are released with the rest guaranteed in March of 2021 and 2022.

Clark: Ken uses 5 years at $17.1M = $85.75M. No. Assume $17.1M per year in new money times 4 years = $68.6M plus his $7.69M for his 5th year option = $76.29M. That is $9.46M less or about $2M per year less than Ken's numbers.

I don't think Clark gets 17.1M per year. He is an NT or 3-4 DT: the top NT/3-4DT makes $11.25M AAV. He'd have to argue that he is worth or able to play 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT. Do Clark's stats make him comparable to 3-4 DEs or 4-3 DTs:

The 3-4 DE comps are Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, Kawaan Short and Casey. Casey had 18, 13, and 18 QB hits (49 total QB hits) in the 3 seasons prior to getting his contract, to go with 32 TFL. Short had 46 QB hits and 32 TFL. Watt got his contract on 108 QB hits and 74 TFL way back in 2014. Donald had 95 QB hits and 54 TFL in the prior 3 seasons (2015 to 2017 inclusive – he signed in 2018). Clark is no where near Watt and Donald. Clark has 22 QB hits and 23 TFL over 3 seasons, or 7.33 QB hit average and 7.67 TFL. Take just his last two seasons: 16 QB hits and 17 TFL. He averages 8 and 8.5 to Casey’s 16.3 and 10.67 and to Short’s 15.33 and 10.67. Clark’s argument might be that Pettine’s system handcuffs him and/or that Lowry sucks so he gets doubled all the time, which is actually true. Tuitt signed for $12M in 2017 with 24 QB hits and 16 TFL, which is better than Clark's numbers. Inflation adjust, $12M = $14.49M. Tuitt was also an extension.

As for 4-3 DTs, the comps are Atkins, Cox and Jarrett.
Atkins (pd in 2018). 3 prior yrs. had 65 QB hits and 36 TFL.
Cox (paid in 2016). 3 prior yrs, had 36 QB hits and 23 TFL. '15 he had 20 QB hits and 11 TFL.
Jarrett (pd in 2019). Prior 3 yr, he had 36 QB hits and 24 TFL. Closer but a longer period of dominance.

Clark’s career high for QB hits is 9. No where near 20 for Cox, Jarrett’s 16 in the year before he got paid, or Atkins’ 20, 26 and 19. Jarrett and Cox got $17M AAV (need to correct for inflation) and Atkins got $16.3 four years ago. So adjust for inflation but their numbers are much, much, better.

Clark had a 79.9 pff grade in 2019, so a bit of a down year. Ranked what, 55th in run D. His PFF grades were 90 and 87.8 in 2018 and 2017. By PFF grade, Clark has a better argument. Clark has 21 QB hits and 23 TFL over 3 yrs and 16/17 over the last two years. Big leap of faith to project him into the Cox/Atkins stratus or the Donald, Watt, Short area. He missed 8.3% of his tackles in 2018 and 11.4% in 2019. Atkins 4.3 and 11.3; Jarrett 7.1 and 10.4%; Cox 6.1 and 11.1%; . Clark's missed tackles seem okay in a limited checking. Damon Harrison (NT) 2.4 and 18.3; Goldman 0 (on 40 tackles) and 6.5%; Donatari Poe 10.5 and 8.3%. Eh, still sounds okay vs. good NTs.

Edit:
* Real numbers coming out on Humphries. Just $2.4M signing bonus. It is mostly cash each year. He is easily cuttable with a one year out of $14.4M paid and $1.6M dead. It is 3 yrs and $44.25M, so $14.75M AAV, but it is extremely, ridiculously team friendly. $14.4M fully guaranteed at signing. Sportrac is 4.6% too low.

As a note, I (and I am a pretty old fart) joined Twitter just recently so I could follow Ken Ingalls. I do not follow anyone else, but I might add Jason Fitzgerald of OTC.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 22, 2020 at 01:49 pm

The current president of the NFLPA is Eric Winston and the executive director is DeMaurice Smith. As of 2017, the executive committee consists of the following current and retired NFL players: Adam Vinatieri, Benjamin Watson, Lorenzo Alexander, Mark Herzlich, Richard Sherman, Sam Acho, Michael Thomas (defensive back), Thomas Morstead, Russell Okung, and Zak DeOssie.[77] Each NFL team also has a player representative, along with two to three alternate representatives.[78]

Supposedly, the executive board voted 6-5 not to recommend the owner's offer. Supposedly, the 32 team reps were confused by the executive committee's position, and did not officially vote. 21 of 32 in favor are needed to recommend the new CBA.

As Ken Ingalls noted in his twitter account, Okung is running for President and that he favors a much more aggressive and/or confrontational activity by the union. Okung and Sherman apparently are virulently against playing 17 games. I am not sure but I Okung and Sherman might also be their teams' player rep. Ken probably knows - the NFLPA still lists Jordy Nelson as GB's player rep and Sherman as Seattle's, so that source is out of date.

Apparently the bd. and the 32 player reps will take votes next week. It appears that the Owners' deal will be forwarded to the full union membership for a vote.

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