Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 481 - Grading the Pack

Andy Herman is back to review his grades through the first 10 weeks of the season.

On today's show, Andy Herman reviews the results from Week 11 in the NFL and takes a deep dive into his grades throughout the season thus far. Find out which players are performing at a high level and which players are trending in the wrong direction. Don't miss it!

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. You can find him on WFRV's Green Bay Nation and every Friday on the Friday Film Room on WDUZ . Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (3)

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lebowski's picture

November 18, 2019 at 11:37 am

This was so great, thanks very much Andy. Really nice to hear that the team has solid depth, no one really dragging the team down (unlike last year), and how Gutekunst changed the direction of the franchise overnight practically. Still holes to fill obviously but excited about this team again, which I didn't think would be possible for a couple years.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 19, 2019 at 04:41 am

I loved the articles. This was great, though less comprehensive. I've played with some of the numbers Andy mentioned.

....Unit: 2018 ------ 2019
..Edge: -19.50 and + 28.88
Safety -11.35 and a +6.40
subtot: -30.85~ vs. +35.28 Huge improvement, so where are the negatives?

.....DL: +20.05 Unknown Clark at +3.25, Lowry -1.75 = 18.45 drop off at least
....ILB: -4.0 Unknown Martinez at -4.35 (Goodson/Burks must be worse?)
....CB: -0.55 Unknown Jaire same as 2018, Tramon playing well, King playing
Twill: 1.25 (noted as a DB because he played half CB and half FS after HHCD traded).
total: -14.1 vs. unknown.

Here is what I deduce:
1) The DL is much worse than in 2018. Clark (+3.25) is on pace to have a +5.2 grade and Lowry extrapolates to -2.8 for a net of +2.4. Lancaster is probably roughly neutral and Montravius Adams certainly has a sizeable negative. Fadol has a small grade since he played rarely. The DL probably has zero or a small negative grade as a group (3rd worst defensive grade was Lowry at -1.75, so Adams and Lancaster's grades must be better than -1.75). Clark's grade for 2018 in 13 games was +13.1, but he is at +3.25, and extrapolates for 4.22 for 13 games and 5.2 for a full 16 game regular season. GB is probably down 20 points on the DL.

2) The ILBs are moderately worse. Martinez extrapolates out to a -6.96, and I imagine Goodson has a negative grade in his 199 snaps, and Burks has a very small negative if only because he has played just 42 snaps.

3) The CBs are better. Jaire is about the same. Tramon is about the same or a little better. King is playing, meaning fewer snaps for inferior CBs. So, no Davon House (-2.2 in 2018) and less of Josh Jackson (-4.90 in 2018). Jackson played 718 snaps in 2018, but just 69 so far in 2019. Sullivan did well but I think he played mostly safety in the regular season (he played a fair amount of slot CB in the preseason). Hollman has played 4 snaps. Brown and Josh Jackson are probably negative, but they haven't played enough to wrack up really bad numbers (and again, we know that it can't be worse than a -1.75).

The defense is better. In 2018, it was 22nd in points allowed at 25.0, and 29th in DVOA with 10.0. (The defense had been better before Clark and Daniels got injured.) In 2019, GB is 14th in points allowed at 20.5 (4.5 is a lot) and 19th in DVOA at 0.60.

Andy's 2018 defensive grades totaled -14.1. We know the edge and safety grades total +35.28. I'd subtract 20 for the DL, and 5 points for the ILB. CBs are probably better.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 19, 2019 at 05:35 am

I can't say too much about the offense from the grades. Aaron Rodgers extrapolates out to 9.45 points better than 2018, and Aaron Jones to about 6.87 points better. Linsley is about 2 points better but Bakh is down 7 points. Still, the Offensive Line is much better overall. Graham is not as bad as last year and Lewis probably has a small positive instead of his -1.9 from 2018. The WRs are way down. Davante has a +15.3 in 2018 but has just a 4.05. That would extrapolate for a 10.8 had he played all 16 games in 2019, but at most he can play 12. He extrapolates to 8.45, a about 7 fewer points. Allison is at -5.1. I'd extrapolate him out over 16 games but surely he isn't going to get many snaps moving forward?

Points per snap:
+0.2630 Aaron Jones
+0.0218 Aaron Rodgers
+0.0192 ZaDarius Smith
+0.0148 Preston Smith
+0.0126 Allen Lazard
+0.0123 Linsley
+0.0121 Davante Adams
+0.0110 Elgton Jenkins
+0.0078 Adrian Amos
+0.0074 Jaire Alexander
+0.0058 Kenny Clark (Way down from 2018's +0.0182)

-0.0217 Light (one poor game and one good game - 76 snaps
-0.0126 Allison
-0.0065 Martinez
-0.0050 Graham
-0.0044 Savage
-0.0042 Lowry

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