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Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 205 - Let's Make a Deal

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Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 205 - Let's Make a Deal

Andrew Mertig and Kyle Fellows examine how the Packers could trade up and down throughout the 2019 NFL Draft. They also explore current NFL players that Green Bay could acquire via trade. 

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and appears weekly on 107.5 The Fan in Green Bay to breakdown film. This past season he was an analyst on Green Bay Nation on WFRV TV in Green Bay. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder; follow him on Twitter at @sconniesports.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (17) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Pack88's picture

Todays podcast was good, I thought the scenarios were plausible BUT the trade back from 12 to 13 netting a 3 I suspect is not. Recent trades is this area of the draft moving one spot typically costs a 4th. Perhaps the fear that Wsahington would offer a 3rd would force Miami to do it but I just don't see it. The scenarios about moving 30 were good but I see even more potential about someone in the top 5 coming back up for this pick especially if an O lineman was there that they really liked!

Old School's picture

Google and read an article called "The Loser's Curse" . It's pretty definite that it's better to have more picks later than fewer picks earlier.

I can easily see a scenario where we trade down from #12 to #20.....about like we did last year....and picking up an extra second. We could trade 30 for an early second rounder and an early 4th round.

Net effect would be 8 picks between #20 and #112. The Bears only have ONE during that time. And they only have $6 million for FA, whereas we have over $30 million.

We can absolutely, positively close the gap this offseason.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I've read Massey and some Crank's (that's an inside joke not directed at you, old school) 2005 study and this 2012 study as well. I hated most of the 2005 study. This one makes more sense - surplus value all over the place. I found much of it persuasive, but not entirely.

What do I know? The "Crank" [Prof. Thaler of the U of Chicago School of Economics] won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2017.

jannes bjornson's picture

There is a lot of value picks in the second round. It would be sound to stack another one.

Jonathan Spader's picture

You also don't take the cap hits for 2nd round draft choices that you do for the picks taken in the 1st round. The drawback is you don't have a 5th year option.

MikeS's picture

No way trade down from 12. We need a stud edge rusher. 30, maybe to 2nd rd and pick up an additional 3rd .

Jonathan Spader's picture

Do we need a stud pass rusher? Pettine had Fackrell get dbl digit sacks. I'd like to see a stout OL & DL. Also the no way comment isn't realistic. If we have an offer like the Saints gave us last year why not trade down?

Old School's picture

Why do we need a stud edge rusher when we're already #7 in sacks and sack percentage? Why is that more important than firming up a run defense that was worse than 7th? Why is it more important than strengthening a secondary that can't put five guys who can cover on the field?

We have two starters under contract in Perry and Fackrell. We could spend about $15 million on defensive free agents....I'd like a safety, but I'm willing to entertain the idea of an edge rusher. If we got a guy like Clowney, for example, at $15 million (our whole defensive wad) then we'd have a pretty good three man rotation, and we wouldn't really need to spend a #12 on a pass rusher (1st round OLBs are seriously overvalued and fail at a pretty significant rate).

Next year, we'd be out from under Perry's deal. We could resign Fackrell if we wish and hope that our 2019 draft pick is ready to play. Oh, and I'd resign Gilbert for the vet minimum ….he's a pretty good value.

So....Fackrell, Perry, Clowney, Gilbert, Top 100 pick. Does that work?

NitschkeFan's picture

The discussion on this thread has been fairly intelligent and a lot of reasonable points. With the departure of CM3 and hopefully Perry (and of course with their decline in production), I think many of us see OLB as a top priority.

But Old School, you are making some good points. Edge is often overvalued in the draft so with the #12 pick the Packers may only have access to the fifth best Edge prospect but could have a shot at the 3rd best DL prospect. And by DL I am looking at non-nose tackle i.e. "3-technique" type of player. Which prospect is less likely to be a bust?

Clowney, sure we would all love to have him but I think he is going to be much more expensive than $15 million. And for the $19 or $20 million I think you could compare value. All of that spent on Clowney or with the same amount pay Breeland plus a top tier free agent Safety?

I don't have an answer but it makes for an interesting thought experiment.

stockholder's picture

The deals can happen. But before you get your hopes up. 8 teams have Edge as their #1 priority. Lions,Pats,Jets,Titans,Raiders,Panthers,Rams,49ers. The packers are ninth if CM3 leaves. Draft Network has S as the packers #1 need. 4 other teams list edge as their 2nd priority. Bosa, Allen, Ferrel, should be gone. Where does that leave the Packers taking a top edge rusher? The Bengals and Steelers have a Need at LB. The OT has 5 teams listing OT as their top priority. Texans ,Chargers, Giants, Bucs, Cardinals. The Vikings need a IOL, and OT. So goodbye J.Williams, and there should be a run on OT. The Packers will have to Keep Perry, or trade up to get that edge/LB. The safety's Thompson , to the Cowboys, and Adderley /edge to Seattle. Gute's going to have to fight off people for CM3, or other edge rusher types. The Free Agent bidding just got more expensive. After viewing other teams needs. I wouldn't be surprised if this comes down to Polite and Burns @12.

dobber's picture

"8 teams have Edge as their #1 priority. Lions,Pats,Jets,Titans,Raiders,Panthers,Rams,49ers."

Draftniks and analysts say that. No team is going to come out and legitimately tell anyone what their priorities and roster-building strategies are.

Old School's picture

I'll just say this, dobber...….edge rushers are overvalued in the draft. You can go to pro-football-reference and dig if you want in their draft finder, but these OLB edge rushers aren't the NFL's sack monsters. It's the DEs like Watt,

That's where I'd be looking. We lost a starter to injury last year (Wilkerson) and both Daniels and Lowry are in their contract year.

Jonathan Spader's picture

I said something similar in a different post in a different way Old School. Look at what Pettine had to work with at EDGE with the Jets. The guy had Fackrell have dbl digit sacks. We need elite DL & CB play/depth. Pettine can scheme average EDGE guys to have borderline elite #s. It'll be really interesting to see what Gute does in 2019 in FA and draft can't wait!

dobber's picture

"Pettine can scheme average EDGE guys to have borderline elite #s."

Somewhere out there, Nick Perry, CMIII, and Reggie Gilbert are feeling woefully inadequate.

Jonathan Spader's picture

In 2018 Packer fans felt that CM3, Nick Perry, and Reggie Gilbert were woefully inadequate. Fortunately, 2 or 3 of those names might not be Packers in 2019. Unless preseason counts or we give the sacks CM3 made that the refs took away? The point was Dobber that Pettine didn't have much to work with in his time with the Jets for OLBers and still produced a top 10 defense.

jannes bjornson's picture

His ILBs were the top dogs in his Jets defense and he had Wilkerson and Richardson in their prime.

Johnblood27's picture

take a breath, buy a comma, something...

can you ever learn?

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