TJ Watt, LB Wisconsin

Position: Edge-Rusher (3-4 Outside Linebacker)
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 252
Class: Redshirt Junior
Hometown: Pewaukee, Wi
Experience: 2 year player – 1 year starter

Measureables:

40yd dash:           4.69
Broad jump:        10’8”
Vertical:                37”
3-cone:                  6.79
20yd. Shuttle:      4.13
Bench Press:      21 reps

Career Notes:

The third of the Watt brothers, T.J., has a chance to become the second to be selected in the first round. Oldest brother J.J. is the best defensive player in the NFL while middle brother Derek was selected in the sixth round despite being a fullback. Watt originally committed to the Badgers as a tight end, but two knee injuries motivated a move to the opposite side of the ball where he stayed for the remainder of his career at Wisconsin. While he was mostly a part-time player in 2015, he broke out in a big way in 2016 earning a spot on two All-America first teams and four second-teams.

Injury Report: 

Though Watt has several positive attributes as a prospect, perhaps his largest question mark is his ability to stay on the field. He played in all 14 of Wisconsin’s games as a Junior and 13 games as a Sophomore, but after redshirting his first year in Madison, he missed all of the 2014 season due to a knee injury and all of 2015 spring practice due to a separate knee injury. Depending on the severity of those knee injuries, he could find himself earning red flags from the NFL scouting community if further medical tests show any heightened potential for re-injury later in his career.

Career Stats(click here):

Analysis:

Against the Run – 2.0/5                                                                                                                                            

Watt is a below-average contributor against the run for a variety of reasons, but most of it is tied to his underwhelming strength (his 21 reps at the combine ranked in the 41^st percentile by mockdraftable.com). When his role in a play is to set the edge, he oftentimes loses the initial leverage battle along the line of scrimmage. However, after being driven back he uses his quickness to get around offensive lineman and help make plays in the run game. But most of these are tackles several yards down field as opposed to tackles for little or no gain, which can stymie a drive. One positive is his willingness chasing down run plays to the opposite side of the field, where his tenacity and quickness allows him to make impact tackles.

Pass Rush – 3.5/5

Watt’s 11.5 sacks in his final season at Wisconsin screams elite pass rusher, especially when you consider his relatively limited snap count and how few plays are run in a typical Badger game, alone led observers to overrate his ability as a pass rusher. Because few teams in college football, especially in the Big 10, run 3-4 defenses, it can be hard for college offenses to prepare for the amount of stunting and various blitzes that a defense playing an odd front can produce for outside linebackers. He does show strong quickness off the edge to immediately beat both left and right tackles, but once a tackle engages with him, Watt fails to show the explosion necessary to transition into counter moves or convert that speed into power.

Coverage – 3.0/5.0

Because of how exotic Wisconsin’s defense is, especially for college, as well as the Badgers’ depth at outside linebacker, Watt was not often tasked with playing in coverage. But his athletic profile and general tenacity allows him to be at the very least a scratch coverage linebacker. Since he will likely remain a 34 outside linebacker in the pros, he will only have nominal coverage responsibilities at the next level, especially early in his career. But it will be important for him to continue this trend in the pros, especially as a disproportionate number of his initial snaps will be in obvious pass-rushing situations. If he is not adequate in coverage, it will be hard to play him as anytime he is in the game, offenses will be assured he is rushing, eliminating the element of surprise that many blitzes count on.

Agility – 4.0/5

Watt does not always show his elite athleticism on tape, but his combine metrics were off the charts. His 4.69 40-yard dash time was merely average for off-ball linebackers (51^st percentile per mockdraftable.com), but most of his specially agility-based metrics were elite for the position. Most notable were his 11.2 60-yard shuttle (99^th), 6.79 3-cone (90^th) and his 128” broad jump (94^th). This speaks well to his ability to translate to the next level as these agility metrics have shown to be one of the most important tools to evaluate edge rushers (shoutout to CheeseheadTV contributor Justis Mosqueda. Based solely on his tape, he stands out as a above average athlete, but does not appear to overwhelm his opponents with his athleticism. The question of which measures to trust will likely differ from team to team, influencing how high a team is willing to take him.

Impact Play Ability – 4.0/5

Because of his lack of pass-rush moves and below-average strength, Watt often finds himself going stretches of games without hearing his name called for a tackle, sack or even for putting pressure on the quarterback. But usually when Watt does make a play, it is of the impact variety. With the emphasis on making negative plays and turnovers on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL, Watt’s every-down contributions will likely be overlooked because of his ability to sack the quarterback. One downside of his is too often when he records a pressure, especially when he is one-on-one with a quarterback, he is unable to bring the quarterback down. Watt too often had a quarterback is his grasp, particularly by the ankles, allowing the quarterback to harmlessly throw the ball away. While pressures are great, it will be important for Watt to improve his finishing at the next level, where bigger and better athletes will be even harder to bring down.

Overall – 3.5/5

T.J. Watt is a prospect with a strong pedigree, good college production and even better testing numbers that plays a premium position, which typically results in a top draft pick. While he has some notable weaknesses – mostly his lack of strength and strong counter pass-rush moves, his potential as a quick-twitched pass rusher is clear. He could use some work on his technique, especially with his run-fits, Watt should be able to see the field as a rookie no matter which team drafts him, at least in sub-packages and obvious passing situations before evolving into a strong second pass-rusher on a good defense. He probably lacks the strength and physical frame to evolve into a consistent Pro-Bowler, but because of his play-making ability, it would not surprise me if, in his best seasons, he recorded 8 sacks and made the game as a reserve.

If Drafted by the Packers:

Watt seems to be one of the most popular players that analysts mock to the Packers with their first-round pick because of the combination of his Wisconsin roots and Green Bay’s need at the outside linebacker position. With his combination of strong college production and borderline elite performance at the Combine, Watt is likely to be an analytic darling in each team’s war-rooms, making it surprising if he fell much past the middle of the second round. With so many playoff teams lacking an outside rusher, the first round is absolutely in play. Watt likely finds himself on the Packers’ short list of options at 29 if he is still available when the Packers are on the clock, meaning he could be the first Watt to be selected by the hometown Green and Gold.

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