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NFC North Through the Eyes of the Oddsmakers

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NFC North Through the Eyes of the Oddsmakers

IF you are a fan of any of the teams who reside in the NFC, you have most likely heard the division's 2017 assessment already. The pundits say the Packers are number one, the Vikes at number two, the Lions number three, and the Bears pulling rear guard, taking last place in the NFC North.

Giving credit where credit is due, the so-called experts are mostly right. I believe the division will shake out in that exact order. But let’s look at the NFC North through the eyes of Las Vegas and offshore oddsmakers, take advantage by researching to find the best betting sites  to cross check our initial assessments by following the money through a few different markets … and perhaps even finding some valuable ways to leverage this information in the process.


Odds at 5Dimes to Win the NFC North


Vikings     +335

Lions        +600

Bear        +2100

By looking at the betting odds set forth by the sportsbooks on who will win the NFC North, we can see that oddsmakers have the Packers as clear favorites to stand atop the division by regular season end (you have to risk $2.10 to win a dollar). The Vikings indeed, come in second with odds at 3.35 to 1, Lions 3rd at 6 to 1, and the Chicago Bears in the divisional caboose at a very long, 21 to 1.


Let's Compare Season Wins Totals for Each Team

Packers  10 - OVER 10 Games -125   UNDER 10 Games +105

Vikings 8.5 - OVER 8.5 Games  -115  Under 8.5 Games -105

Lions 7        - OVER 7 Games -126  UNDER 7 Games +106

Bears 5.5    - OVER 5 .5 Games +105 UNDER 5.5 Games -125

Again, the sportsbooks are right in line with most people's assessment of the NFC North. The season wins total market also directly corresponds to the divisional futures market above, which makes sense. But how do the books value each of these team's matchups week by week throughout the on point spreads?

**Oddmakers Do Not Create Lines For Week 17 Due To Rest & Playoff Scenarios. The Market is Too Volatile**


The Packers Point Spreads Week by Week through Week-16

1.Packers (-3) vs Seahawks

2.Packers (+2.5) @ Falcons

3.Packers (-7) vs Bengals

4.Packers (-9.5) vs Bears

5.Packers (+3) at Cowboys

6.Packer (-1.5) @ Vikings

7.Packers (-7.5) vs Saints



9.Packers (-7.5) vs Lions

10.Packers (-6.5) at Bears

11.Packers (-7) vs. Ravens

12.Packers (+3) at Steelers

13.Packers (-7) vs Bucs

14.Packers (-9.5) @ Cleveland

15.Packers (-2) @ Panthers

16.Packers (-6.5) vs Vikings





The Vikings Point Spreads Week by Week through Week-16

1.Saints @ Vikings (-)3

2.Vikings at Steelers (-6)

3.Buccaneers at Vikings (-3)

4.Lions at Vikings (-3)

5.Vikings (-2) at Bears

6.Packers (-1.5) at Vikings

7.Ravens at Vikings (-3.5)

8.Vikings (-7) at Browns in London



10.Vikings at Redskins (-1.5)

11.Rams at Vikings (-7.5)

12.Vikings at Lions (-2.5)

13.Vikings at Falcons (-5.5)

14.Vikings at Panthers (-3)

15.Bengals at Vikings (-3)

16.Vikings at Packers (-6.5)


The Lions Point Spreads Week by Week through Week-16

1.Cardinals at Lions (-3)

2.Lions at Giants (-3)

3.Falcons (-1.5) at Lions

4.Lions at Vikings (-3)

5.Panthers at Lions (-2)

6.Lions at Saints (-2.5)


8.Steelers (-1.5) at Lions


9.Lions at Packers (-7.5)

10.Browns at Lions (-8.5)

11.Lions (-1) at Bears

12.Vikings at Lions (-2.5)

13.Lions at Ravens (-3)

14.Lions at Buccaneers (-3)

15.Bears at Lions (-6)

16.Lions at Bengals (-3)




The Bears Point Spreads Week by Week Through Week-16

17.Falcons (-6) at Bears

18.Bears at Buccaneers (-7)

19.Steelers (-5.5) at Bears

20.Bears at Packers (-9.5)

21.Vikings (-2) at Bears

22.Bears at Ravens (-7)

23.Panthers (-1.5) at Bears

24.Bears at Saints (-6)



26.Packers (-6.5) at Bears

27.Lions (-1) at Bears

28.Bears at Eagles (-6)

29.49ers at Bears (-4)

30.Bears at Bengals (-6.5)

31.Bears at Lions (-6)

32.Browns at Bears (-4.5)



Here is where we find some discrepancies that may be clues as to where the weaknesses are hiding in the oddsmakers' 2017 NFL lines.

The Chicago Bears are only favored when the 49ers hit Chicago and when the Browns visit in Week-16. Remember, the Bears season wins total is lined out at OVER/UNDER five and a half Games … yet they are only favored in two and they play the Vikings in Week 17 who will be battling for a playoff spot.

The Detroit Lions are listed as favorites on the early lines in five games, yet their wins total for the season is averaging 7 and 7.5 wins … plus they play the Packers, which will most likely end in a loss for Stafford and crew.

The Minnesota Vikings are favorites in eight games … this is right on par with both previous markets. They end the regular season against the lowly Bears, making them candidates to fall right on the set line and too risky to consider.

The Green Bay Packers are outright win favorites in 12 games during the regular season and will most likely be favored again against the Lions Week-17 in Detroit. It's amazing that their season wins total is set at just 10 games.

This leads me to believe that there is more than just a little value on the Green Bay Packers in the season wins betting markets. This is a bet that I feel, worst case scenario will be a push (meaning the Packers win exactly 10 games and neither you or the oddsmaker wins. Thus, you get your money returned to you. But I had previously handicapped the Packers at winning at least 11 games … most likely 12.

Do you want to earn $1000 this NFL season? If so, all you have to do is drop $1250 on Rodgers and Company to win OVER 10 games … it's a gimme! The market for the how many games the Bears wins in 2017 is quite a bit off as well. There is definitive value on the Soldier Boys winning less than five games at -125. I'll be dropping a few dollars on that as well.

Vegas and Offshore oddsmakers create a lot of markets, which leaves gaps to be exploited… this is how you BEAT them!

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