Nagler's Never Right: NFL 2014 Season Week 13 Picks

Aaron's NFL picks for Week 13. 

Last Week: 11-4

Season: 107-69-1

Chicago vs Detroit

The Bears are just what the struggling Lions need. Cutler was a mess when he played in Detroit last year and I expect the same thing to happen again in front of a nation busy stuffing themselves with Thanksgiving goodness. The Lions win this one on the strength of their defensive line and their offense getting back on track against a terrible Bears defense.

Philadelphia vs Dallas

The Eagles will need Mark Sanchez to play a mistake-free game in Jerry World, a tall task for a QB who has thrown two interceptions in 3 out of his 4 appearances so far this season. The Cowboys will continue leaning on what has been winning games for them all year long - their ground and pound running game and opportunistic plays in the passing game coupled with a defense that makes the opposing offense work for everything it gets. Dallas, despite being 3-3 at home while perfect on the road in 2014, gets the win.

Seattle vs San Francisco

The 49ers are absolutely locking teams down on defense. The Seahawks have come to the realization that any dreams they had of putting together a high-flying passing attack this season were just that - the stuff of dreams. This will be another knock-down drag-out fight between two of the most physical teams in the league. It will be close, but just like last year, I see the 49ers winning a close one at home.

Cleveland vs Buffalo

The Browns needed a some last-second magic (or some serious clock-management incompetence from Mike Smith) to beat the Falcons. The Bills got snowed out of their own stadium and proceeded to destroy the New York Jets. Back outside in snowy Buffalo for this one, I expect a tough-hitting, low scoring affair that the Bills win at the last second.

Carolina vs Minnesota

The Panthers are coming fresh off their bye and, miraculously, still have something to play for. Any other year, a 3-7-1 record heading into Thanksgiving weekend would guarantee that your team was making offseason plans and looking forward to the draft. Not Carolina. The Vikings are going to be throwing out Mike Harris at right tackle to go along with Matt Kalil at left tackle. It’s really hard to see how the Vikings offense is going to be able to function with any real consistency. Yes, it sounds improbable, but the Panthers get their first win since October 5th.

Tennessee vs Houston

Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at the helm after Ryan Mallett was lost for the season with a torn muscle in his pectoral. The Titans’ Zach Mettenberger has played well in one game, against the Steelers, and been underwhelming in the rest of his appearances in 2014. And of course JJ Watt will be there to remind everyone about the dangers of selfies. Houston gets the win.

New York Giants vs Jacksonville

Lost in the hysteria over Odell Beckham Jr’s catch and the gut-wrenching loss to the Cowboys was the fact that the return of Geoff Schwartz really helped improve the Giants’ offensive line. That improvement will be much-needed against an underrated Jaguars pass rush. The Giants aren’t a very good football team. The Jaguars are a bad one. Giants win.

Oakland vs St. Louis

The Raiders were the feel-good story of Week 12 as they got their first win of the year. They get back to their losing ways in St. Louis, mostly because of the Rams’ defensive line. It will just be too much for Oakland and Derek Carr to handle.

San Diego vs Baltimore

The Chargers escaped against the Rams at home. They won’t be so lucky against the Ravens on the road, where they will get absolutely torn apart by Baltimore’s defense. Flacco makes the plays necessary to put this one away early in the 4th quarter.

Cincinnati vs Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers are in the playoff race and the race for the first overall pick, at the same time. Insanity. This feels like the type of game that the Bengals would typically blow. I just can’t bring myself to pick the Bucs. Bengals win an ugly one.

Washington vs Indianapolis

Colt McCoy is the latest and greatest to get thrown to the wolves in Washington. The Colts’ defense is no joke at Lucas Oil and will get after McCoy. On the flip side, Andrew Lucka and company have to get their pass protection sorted out after the absurd beating Luck took down in Jacksonville, especially facing blitz-happy Jim Haslett. I think they do and the Colts get the win.

New Orleans vs Pittsburgh

My pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl has been downright pedestrian to bad for long stretches this year. Some of it is injury related, some of it is just a straight up talent bleed that has been a direct result of having to pay their superstars. The Steelers are rested and ready. There will be lots of points scored. The Steelers end with more of them.

Arizona vs Atlanta

Has Mike Smith been fired yet? The Cardinals bounce back from a tough divisional loss.

New England vs Green Bay

The Packers will be able to move the ball, though I don’t expect an offensive explosion. The Patriots’ secondary is too good, and the Packers running game tends to work because teams are afraid of Rodgers and the passing game. Belichick won’t be. On the other side, I expect to see a ton of the Pats’ power running game. Brady will essentially play keep away from Rodgers. The Packers defense needs a lead to be effective. They won’t ever have enough of one in this game to go to town the way Dom does when he gets up a few scores.

27-24 Patriots.

Denver vs Kansas City

The Broncos had a real good scare against the Dolphins. The Chiefs had a real good wake up call against the Raiders. I think this will be an excellent game, one where the offensive deficiencies in Kansas City are the difference. Broncos win a big one in the race for the AFC West.

Miami vs New York Jets

It doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback, this Jets team is an abomination. The Dolphins win big.

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Comments (7)

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Packer_Pete's picture

November 27, 2014 at 05:18 am

I have a gut feeling that the Bears surprise the Lions today. I also think the Packers will win a close one. Other than that, agree with the above.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

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Lphill's picture

November 27, 2014 at 11:05 am

If the packers play a mistake free game I see no reason they can't beat the Pats, remember the Pack has scored just as many points but about 100 less plays , that is a big deal . Pack by 6 at home , Happy Thanksgiving to all even COW.

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4thand1's picture

November 27, 2014 at 11:22 am

Hope you're never right with the Packers/Patriots game. Happy TG.
GOPACKGO!

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FITZCORE1252's picture

November 29, 2014 at 02:22 am

Nagler, props on what you're doing professionally. Seriously, kudos...

But, dude... I know and you know that it took everything you had to go against the GOOD LORDS GREEN BAY PACKERS, just because that's what the cool kids in your industry (social fucking dorks/Virgins) were doing. I mean, when's the last time Schefter or Rappaport got a beej?

Deep down, you know we're gonna win this game...and you will kick yourself for conforming to the national media pats machine. You know how good this team can be, and you didn't believe. For shame... for shame.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

November 29, 2014 at 02:14 am

.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

November 29, 2014 at 02:23 am

I can't delete this ^^ my apologies.

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lucky953's picture

November 29, 2014 at 09:38 am

Pats over Packers? A shameless attempt at "professional" journalism. Ignoring your heart doesn't make you smarter, nor does it make you a better prognosticator. Very disappointing Mr Nagler. I hope Behnke takes away your Stillmark this week.

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