Last Week: 12-4

Season: 12-4

Let's do this. Winners in bold.

Denver vs Kansas City

Think the Broncos defense makes a big play to swing this one in Denver's favor. Give me Denver, 23-20.

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) September 18, 2015

New England vs Buffalo

So much is being made about Rex Ryan vs Tom Brady and not nearly enough is being made of Bill Belichick vs Tyrod Taylor, although there’s obviously no history to draw from the latter.

Will Rex be able to frustrate his second top-flight quarterback in as many weeks? I say yes. And I think the Bills start 2-0 because of it.

Houston vs Carolina

While the switch to Ryan Mallett at quarterback grabbed most of the non-turf related headlines, Houston’s defense needs to rebound against a physical but ultimately somewhat limited Panthers offense.

While I tend to think the Panthers won’t score a ton of points, I don’t think they’ll need to. I have little faith in this Texans’ attack with either quarterback at the helm. The Panthers get the win.

San Diego vs Cincinnati

The Chargers orchestrated a big comeback against the Lions at home. That won’t be happening on the road against the Bengals. If the Keenan Allen who showed up last week shows up again, this could be a fun one.

It’s hard to have much a feel for either one of these teams, but ultimately I like the Bengals to get the win at home, if for no other reason than the whole West Coast Team Flying East thing.

Tampa Bay vs New Orleans

What an atrocious showing from Tampa Bay on both sides of the ball last week. While I think the offense has more to offer, that defense looked like a bad 1980’s film. I don’t really know what that means, but it’s what I kept thinking while rewatching the game, so I’m going with it.

Drew Brees threw the ball way too much last week. They have to get the running game going. I think they do against the Bucs and get the win.

San Francisco vs Pittsburgh

All offseason I said the 49ers were going to be a tough team to play every week. Apparently, the Vikings didn’t listen. Love Carlos Hyde and Jarrd Hayne. And that defense is still tough as nails, despite the bevy of losses this summer.

The Steelers should be able to move the ball. The 49ers should as well, especially against what looked like a shell of the Steelers defense last week. However, I think Big Ben and the Steelers make the big plays necessary to win this one.

Tennessee vs Cleveland

Johnny Football is back! I actually thought Manziel displayed some real growth from where he was last year with his performance in relief of Josh McCown last week. Even when Manziel looked a little lost, it was hard to put it all on him as he’s playing with a pretty motley collection of guys at the skill positions.

As for Mariota - what a debut. Now things will get interesting as defensive coordinators have a bit more to go on in regards to what the Titans plan to do on offense to help their young quarterback. Speaking of quarterbacks, if I see the stat about Mariota being the first Heisman winner to "face" two other Heisman winners in his first two professional starts, I'm going to lose it. Quarterback's don't "face" each other. It's an inane stat. 

Sorry. Back to the game - give me Cleveland on the strength of their running game and defense, which I think gets Mariota to make his first big mistake. 

Arizona vs Chicago

The Johnson and Johnson show is coming to the Arizona backfield with Andre Ellington (stop me if you've heard this one before) out due to injury. Carson Palmer should be able to hold up against a Bears pass rush that didn't show much pop against the Packers last week. On the flip side, Jay Cutler will need to get the ball out of his hands quickly and into the hands of Matt Forte in space.

While I think the Bears put up a good fight yet again, give me Arizona on the road. 

Detroit vs Minnesota

Minnesota did not play well out in San Francisco, but I expect them to in this one. I know Teddy Bridgewater has taken a lot of heat for his Week 1 performance, even from his head coach, but I think the offensive line was and is a much bigger issue. 

As for the Lions, they simply have to tackle better and get Calvin Johnson more involved. It's not rocket science. But even rocket science doesn't get the Lions the W this week. 

Atlanta vs New York Giants

Lost amongst the drama of the meltdown in Dallas was the fact that, despite some fortuitous turnovers, the Giants defense actually did very little to slow down the Cowboys offense. Now here comes Julio Jones. Good luck, G-Men.

For Eli's part, I think he and the offense will look better against the Falcons, but still sputter at inopportune times. Give me Dan Quinn and his Falcons to start 2-0. 

St. Louis vs Washington

Nick Foles providing competent quarterback play for the Rams was overshadowed by the dramatics of the Seattle matchup, but Foles played quite well in Week 1. Washington's defense looked competent as well against Miami, setting up the Competency Bowl. 

I like the Rams defense to suffocate the Washington offense and get the W.

Baltimore vs Oakland

Baltimore heads west again, this time against an Oakland team that spent all offseason getting the hopes of their fan base up only to lay an egg out of the gate and cause them to question everything already. 

There are a lot of things you could focus on in Oakland, but the most important is that Derek Carr needs to play better. It's not complicated. I think he will, but not well enough to help his team beat the Ravens. 

Miami vs Jacksonville

Ryan Tannehill is another quarterback who needs to play better. I was surprised at how uneven his game was against Washington. The Dolphins can't afford too many more performances like that one. 

Are the Jaguars ever going to be good again? If they are, I doubt the revival starts this week. Give me Miami. 

Dallas vs Eagles

I can't believe the line on this game, which was Dallas +5 when last I looked. I think lots of folks are discounting how well the Cowboys offense moved without Dez Bryant last week. Those last two touchdown drives were just fantastic work by Romo. Obviously, it'll be different operating on the road, but I think they can score on this Eagles team.

As for the Eagles offense, I was surprised at how uneven their performance was against the Falcons. Chip's teams tend to look efficient early and then possibly sputter later, but they did the opposite down in Atlanta. I expect this performance to be much more even from Philadelphia, but not enough to get the win. 

Seattle vs Green Bay

The Packers finally get the Seahawks in Lambeau and it will make all the difference. Yes, Bryan Bulaga is out, but playing at home will allow Aaron Rodgers to liberally use his cadence as a weapon. Rodgers got the Seahawks to jump several times in Seattle, and should have two or three free play opportunities this time around. And then there's the small matter of Rodgers being healthy this time around. Look for more than a few plays where Rodgers is able to make something happen with his legs. 

Speaking of which, Russell Wilson will make his usual plays outside the pocket. Marshawn Lynch will certainly run roughshod and Jimmy Graham will undoubtedly be a problem in the red zone. 

The Packers still get the victory on the strength of Aaron Rodgers' game. I expect Sunday night is one of those games that reminds the country just how damn good Rodgers is. 

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

The Colts offense looked disjointed and their defense looked old against the Bills. While I expect the Colts to win this game, mostly due to Andrew Luck and the offense being at home, that defense is going to be a real problem all year. I love Todd Bowles and think Jets keep this close, but ultimately Luck makes the plays needed to win the game in the 4th quarter.