Last Week: 9-5

Season: 53-24

Another less than stellar week followed by a Thursday night stinker pick. Started the year on fire with my Thursday picks, but the last two weeks have been brutal. 

Atla​nta vs New Orleans

Feels weird picking against the Saints at home in prime time, but that's what I'm doing. Falcons 31 Saints 23

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) October 15, 2015

Washington vs New York Jets

The Jets enter this one rested and ready. Washington’s defense is legit and a big part of this game will come down to Ryan Fitzpatrick not making big mistakes. Kirk Cousins, on the flip side, is the walking personification of big mistakes. Jets get the win.

Arizona vs Pittsburgh

The Bruce Arians Bowl will get some of the headlines but this game will be about Arizona’s defense keeping the Steelers offense on lockdown. Oh, Bell, Brown and company will make plays, but not enough to grab the victory. Carson Palmer will have another multiple-touchdown day and it will seem ho-hum. Cardinals win comfortably.

Kansas City vs Minnesota

The Chiefs saw whatever flicker of hope remained for salvaging their season crumble to the ground with Jamaal Charles last week against the Bears. The Vikings should have this one won long before the final whistle.

Cincinnati vs Buffalo

The Bengals are ripe for a letdown. I actually buy that Andy Dalton and the ‘15 Bengals are different than all the teams that have melted down in the playoffs, but they'll let this one get away from up in Buffalo, even if Tyrod Taylor is unable to go.

Chicago vs Detroit

The Lions are in full-on Lost Season mode. The Bears won’t be confused with playoff contenders any time soon, but they are playing hard for their coach and you can see the seeds being sown for Ryan Pace and John Fox’s program. That said, I actually think the Lions re-set after the embarrassment against Arizona and grind out a win in this one.

Denver vs Cleveland

The Browns’ struggles against the run are well documented. The Broncos are on pace for their lowest rushing yardage total in 33 years. If they can’t get it done this week, they probably never will. What’s funny about this matchup is that Josh McCown has seemingly been less of a detriment to his team that Peyton Manning has been to his. I really want to take the Browns in this one...but I can’t. Give me the Broncos and their defense to pull out a tough one on the road.

Houston vs Jacksonville

Just put JJ Watt at quarterback. It’s what we all want to see and it couldn’t be any worse than what Houston is trotting out there now. Jacksonville wins at home.

Miami vs Tennessee

The Dolphins emerge from their bye week with renewed purpose and energy playing for their new interim coach Dan Campbell. That’s what it says in the script. Unfortunately for Miami, someone forgot to send the Titans a copy. Titans win.

Carolina vs Seattle

I love these games. They’re always tough, hard fought contests that produce big hits and big plays. Bobby Wagner may miss this game and that would be a dangerous loss for Seattle. On the other side, the Panthers finally get their own stud linebacker Luke Kuechly back. I think this one will be close, but ultimately I think Russell Wilson makes one more play than Cam Newton to secure the win.

San Diego vs Green Bay

The Packers need to get the running game going. It’s that simple. Once they do that, everything else will flow. I know QB1 has made noise about “guys needing to win outside” when defenses “stack the box” but the truth of the matter is the o-line isn’t getting it done no matter how many or how few guys are in the box. That has to change before anything else.

As for the Packers defense, they’ll be facing a quarterback in Philip Rivers who works the line of scrimmage and play clock as well as Rodgers does. He’s a dangerous opponent. That said, I expect Green Bay’s defensive line to take this game over early much as they did against St. Louis. There shouldn’t be much doubt by the end of the 3rd quarter of this Packers victory.

Baltimore vs San Francisco

One of these teams was expected to be bad. The other was picked by some (including, regretfully, yours truly) to be in the Super Bowl. Instead, here we are in Week 6 and the team expected to be bad is, indeed, bad. The Super Bowl pick? Also pretty bad. So here we are with the Bad Bowl. Give me the Ravens to be slightly less bad.

New England vs Indianapolis

In a game that I think will be a lot closer most think, the Patriots get the win.

New York Giants vs Philadelphia

Odell Beckham Jr is Questionable and so are New York’s chances of winning if he doesn’t play. The Giants have lost their last three Monday night games. This will make it four. Chip’s crew gets a crucial division win.