Miscues and Mastery: The Trevor Davis Dilemma

-- At times in 2017, Trevor Davis was just downright painful to watch.

From misery and brief periods of incompetence to sudden elation and stints of special teams prowess, the Green Bay Packers' wide receiver and top punt return specialist was far from consistent in his second NFL campaign.

In most cases, being a fifth-round draft pick in your second season and making poor judgment calls isn't the most unheard-of thing ever. However, with the Packers adding three new receivers to their roster via April's draft and a cornerback whose secondary strength in college was as a return man, there's a little less room for error.

The experiment as a receiver in the Packers' offensive plans could be over for Davis -- though, it could also be too early to tell -- but that isn't to say added competition could boost his incentive to earn his keep on the 53-man roster come September.

As it stands right now, Davis is the Packers' best return man. That's simply evidenced by his statistical rankings in comparison to other returners around the league.

On kick returns in 2017, Davis ranked fourth in the league with 707 kick return yards and 11th with a 22.8 yards per return average. On punts is where he shined, tallying a sixth-highest 289 yards and 12.0 return average, which ranked second of all qualifying returners.

Much of the disdain with Davis rests with his decision-making, which resulted in the Packers' offensive possessions starting from deep within their own territory.

Davis called for a fair catch inside the 10-yard line eight times in 2017. Four of them were entirely unnecessary, whereas the other four were warranted given the opposing gunners' positioning behind him, which could've resulted in even worse field position for the offense.

It's not a common theme for Davis, 24, as he prepares to enter his third year in the league. In his rookie season, he only called for two fair catches inside the 10-yard line in the 11 games he was active for -- both of which came in the same week 7 game against the Chicago Bears.

It's a sense of give-and-take with Davis -- but it shouldn't be that way. The Packers can't afford to have that constant inconsistency on special teams, which is why their first-round pick, cornerback Jaire Alexander, could potentially be the primary return specialist in 2018.

Alexander 42 kicks through his first two collegiate seasons at Louisville, averaging 10 yards per return and accounting for a touchdown in his sophomore year. The only uncertainty is how willing the Packers would be to play their presumed starting nickel cornerback on special teams duties.

Alexander has more of a chance to replace Davis if need be than any of the three aforementioned receivers, J'Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown.

The three of which, have just one punt and two kick returns between the three of them in their college careers.

Davis is elusive and has the capability to bust open a big return at any given moment when he has open space in front of him. It's easily safe to assume that a point of emphasis so far this offseason -- and going forward -- has been to minimize the mental mistakes so he can maximize his full potential.

That'd instantly turn what has been a hectic offseason into somewhat of a gratifying one for Davis, who was charged with making "criminal" threats at Los Angeles International airport in April.

What he once thought was a harmless joke was dismissed later in the month as he was relieved of all charges.

As elusive as Davis is, it would've been difficult to maneuver his way out of that situation had charges been filed against him. Otherwise, he'd likely be looking at an open market right now as opposed to a wide open opportunity in Green Bay -- both as a receiving threat and as a return specialist -- that he has a slight edge in.

Miscues will lead to Davis' downfall, but if he can piece it together and learn when to simply let the ball hit the turf and bounce into the end zone and when to position himself under it to either call a fair catch or weave his way between oncoming defenders, he has the potential to be in the conversation as one of the best returners in the league.

If Davis is good enough in training camp and his four preseason games, he could cling onto the Packers' final roster solely as the initial return man and an occasional offensive component.

If he isn't, being on such a thin line could easily translate to a much different fate.

__________________________

Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].

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Comments (54)

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PatrickGB's picture

May 14, 2018 at 09:23 am

Everytime he is on the game day roster he is taking the spot of another player. He has to be really good on ST's to justify that spot if he is not being used as a WR. With the history of injuries that we have with DB's and the WR sets that we face I would rather have a DB field a punt. Besides PR what else can he do? Can he be as strong of a gunner as Janis? Nope. So lets see if he can learn to be a good backup WR and take a spot from a rookie and if not then let him go.

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Coldworld's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:35 pm

If it is the place of Alexander as returner that he takes, I could live with it for that reason alone.

I would expect us to experiment with some of the young blood in camp or look for better at cut down without a dramatic improvement as a WR. Those mistakes are too costly and the big returns too few to offset them.

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Bret Iverson's picture

May 14, 2018 at 09:38 am

I am more disappointed with his WR play. This is a make or break year for him. You can not be a one trick pony. He needs to make it on offense or you move on.

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Handsback's picture

May 14, 2018 at 09:47 am

Davis has shown great capability in returning punts and as a ST member. He will need to win a WR position in order to maintain a roster spot. He's got a lot of competition, but he should show some break-out moves this year, or be traded to Cleveland....

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Bill Atkinson's picture

May 14, 2018 at 11:53 am

In the German army in WWII you were told to shape up or get shipped to the eastern front, for Packer players it's shape up or get shipped to Cleveland.

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worztik's picture

May 14, 2018 at 10:18 am

If it comes down to using our 1st round pick or Davis to return kicks, Davis gets the job. I’m NOT putting Alexander in a position to break a leg or get hit from the side resulting in a knee injury... NO... JUST NO!!!
Let the kid learn the CB position! Use ANYONE but Alexander on the kicks... or be just plain ignorant as to the need we have at CB. Injuries happen anywhere on the field on any play but, do not increase the probability of one by having 11 big dudes all trying to take his head off on the same play... just sayin’...

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Colin_C's picture

May 14, 2018 at 10:41 am

Agreed 100%!

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Finwiz's picture

May 14, 2018 at 11:53 am

Good post Worztik - agree completely!!
Not that it matters, MM will do it anyway if the kid looks explosive.

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SpudRapids's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:27 pm

If you coach to avoid injury in the NFL you are coaching to lose... every game counts to get to the playoffs and win a superbowl so if Alexander gives them a win or two with explosive returns I'm all for it. Dude could get hurt in a warm up for god sakes. Injuries are a product of luck in the NFL... coaching, nutrition, and strength/conditioning are a small subset of the factors that cause injury.

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Arthur Jackson's picture

May 15, 2018 at 01:41 pm

Atlanta had Deion Sanders average 23 punt returns and 35 kick returns his first four seasons. He had 2 punt and 3 kick returns for TDs. He only missed 5 games total while still picking off 17 passes for another 3 TDs.

Then after having those duties reduced to almost zero Dallas made him their punt returner at age 30 and in the next three season he returned another 87 punts for a 12.9 average and 4 TDs.

Plus it's not like what Deion did was some sort of anomaly. Champ Baily, Tim Brown, Darrien Gordon, Antoni Brown, Jim Leonhard, Patrick Peterson, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson and Rod Woodson are a few other prominent players who were the main punt returner and started all 16 games. I guess if the return shoe fits, wear it.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 14, 2018 at 08:52 pm

Every team in the NFL avoids using their starters on STs to avoid injury. The returner sometimes is a starter on Offense of Defense, but that is usually because the drop off from a Deion Sanders to the next PR is a lot.

ST snap counts in order:

Fackrell, M Evans, Janis, Joe Thomas, Ryan, Rip, Whitehead, Davis, Josh Jones (1 - 36% at 155 ST snaps), Alison 2 - 35% at 138), Biegel, Vogel, Lowry (3 - 30% at 122), Hawkins (sort of - 4).

Top 8 ST players didn't play much on offense or defense. Josh Jones is the first guy who played a lot of snaps to show up on the ST list, and even the guys roped into playing STs 35% of the time and also give us a fair amount of snaps on O or D are all young.

No, I'd say every team shields their starters from STs so as to avoid injury.

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SpudRapids's picture

May 15, 2018 at 12:57 pm

You are blurring the lines between a returner and the rest of the special teams unit... I think we can all agree that the returner is a different animal than a kick coverage guy.

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Arthur Jackson's picture

May 15, 2018 at 02:29 pm

As Twain was fond of saying, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

If you reverse it and look at the top defnsive snap leaders and then check ST snaps for each we see that three top defensive snap leaders played 17.2%, 27.4% and 36.9% of the snaps. (Clinton-Dix, Martinez and Jones respectively). That is a substantial number. Another five in the top 11 defensive snap leaders plus four more if we go to the top 15 snap leaders played a double-digit percentage of ST snaps. These numbers don't mean starters don't play special teams, but that some special teams plays are offensive in nature and some are defensive in nature.

Which is why we see somewhat similar numbers on offense. QB, top receivers (unless returner) and centers are the starters not needed for special teams. Offensive linemen other than the center (replaced by long snapper) are going to play most every XP and punt.

It's hard to find snaps separated out by each unit, but I suspect that kickoffs are the one unit where other than returner you are far less likely to see a majority of the players being offensive or defensive starters. Punt/punt returns, XPs and FGs teams will be littered with starters. In other words starters can, do and (because of a 45 man roster) will always make up the significant part of each special team play other than kick offs.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 16, 2018 at 02:55 am

You make some good points, AJ. Not sure why a top of the line WR isn't needed on STs but two bottom of the line WRs in Janis and Davis are. What is striking though is that the top 27 ST players are on first contracts except for Dial (19th and on vet min) and Kendricks (25th and pretty inexpensive). The first guy on a 2nd contract is Daniels, who played 59 snaps on STs, which is 28th on the team. Not sure in what capacity: was he there in case of a fake?

It appears that OTs play every extra point and field goal, but not on punts. In 2016, Crosby attempted 30 FGs and 47 extra points, a total of 77. Bulaga and Bakh both played 97.2% of offensive snaps that year. Bulaga played 76 ST snaps and Bakh played 65. Barclay played 74 ST snaps. Was that on the 56 punts, or was he filling in at guard? I'll have to actually identify who is playing on STs this year.

I wondered if PR is also a function of money. Tramon took every PR in 2010, then got paid via extension in late November. Next year, 2011, he takes no PRs, which is taken over by Cobb. Cobb is the primary PR when healthy and then splits PR 14 to 14 with Hyde in 2014, possibly due to having a big year. Once Cobb got paid, Hyde takes over in 2015 with 27 PRs to Cobb's 4. Hyde and Davis share the job in 2016, 11 to 9, with Cobb getting 4. The job is all Davis in 2017. That doesn't explain why Woodson was the primary PR guy in 2006 and 2007: he was expensive and on a 2nd contract. He was good (8.9 and 8.1 yd averages) but not great. Could be the HC changed his mind about things or ST coordinator changed.

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4thand1's picture

May 14, 2018 at 11:02 am

We'll see a lot of different players fielding punts in pre season. If a new guy shines Davis is gone ,unless he shines as a WR . The one thing I don't want to see is Hundley getting the starts and a ton of playing time.

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Coldworld's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:39 pm

I agree entirely on the tryouts. Can Hundley return punts? If so I finally see sense as keeping him on the 90.

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kevgk's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:41 pm

why not hundley? it is obvious they are keeping kizer for another year. Why not give hundley a chance to earn a spot and show him off for trade bait?

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holmesmd's picture

May 14, 2018 at 03:03 pm

How much more do you need to see? Other than his epic game in PIT, the guy guy looked like he couldn’t go thru his progressions and had a noodle for an arm! Why on God’s earth would you carry him on the roster for another year. Cut the guy. No other team will offer GB anything but a concession stand pass to their stadium for the guy. It saddens me and I don’t mean to be harsh but I think all of our eyes saw what they saw last year. Enough said. Kizer has top 2 round skills.

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Since'61's picture

May 14, 2018 at 11:22 am

We have Allison, Yancey, and Clark already on the roster with 3 draft picks coming. Let TC decide who sticks with the team and who goes. Davis is guaranteed nothing IMO. Besides WRs we have other players who can handle punt returns. WRs should get a spot based on their ability as a WR if they can handle punts great, but that should be why they make the roster.
Thanks, Since '61

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croatpackfan's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:42 pm

I agree Since...

I believe that maybe only Davante Adams has secure spot (baring injury) on the roster (when we are talking WR group!)...

So, lets TC decide who is who in the WR room!

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

May 14, 2018 at 11:25 am

It hard to fathom Trevor Davis suddenly forming some judgment to apply to both Fair Catch and Life decisions. I expect one of the other WRs to have his spot next season...

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:15 pm

If McCarthy keeps Allison over Davis, fire McCarthy.

I'm not kidding. I'm sick of McCarthy making idiotic decisions with player personnel.

1. Allison is unathletic and struggles to create separation of any kind. This forces Rodgers to buy more time and thread more needles, leading to more hits on our franchise.

2. Allison offers NOTHING on special teams, meaning his total package is something almost no team will want if we release him.

3. Davis put up strong return numbers with a horrible blocking special teams unit--a remarkable feat. Just watch some tape, and you'll want to throw up watching the blocking he received. Pitiful.

4. Putting our top pick back to take shots from gunners is one of the stupidest ideas I've seen in years. We finally have an explosive group at CB, and some fools want to risk a key part of it.

5. Davis is entering his 3rd year, and his only weakness is route-running--which will likely improve with coaching.

6. None of the 3 WR draftees is an accomplished returner.

Bottom line: Our special teams have suffered greatly by Senility Ted stuffing the roster with slow athletes (Allison, R. Rodgers, Ryan, Fackrell, Rollins, Gilbert, Jamal Williams, etc.) YOU SIMPLY CAN'T CARRY THAT MANY TURTLES AT THE LOW END OF YOUR ROSTER AND FIELD A QUALITY SPECIAL TEAMS UNIT.

Of course, McCarthy's ability to make stupid decisions is approaching the stuff of legend, so Davis will be released.

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Oppy's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:28 pm

MM didn't make "Hire and Fire" decisions on personnel. MM made coaching decisions with the personnel he was given.

That's been stated and documented since day 1.

It's probably a large part of the reason why there's been the change in structure for the Packers- to make sure there's communication between head coach, GM, and President, and find a consensus on those types of decisions.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:32 pm

Obviously, but he clearly had big input on what players he keeps. There's no way the GM ignores coaching input on player decisions.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

May 14, 2018 at 06:34 pm

I supect Murphy made it pretty clear the coaches where ignored. What else where the "siloes"? Carpet color? Wall decorations?

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dobber's picture

May 15, 2018 at 09:39 am

Our silos never had carpet or wall decorations...

Unless you count mold and bits of shredded corn.

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SpudRapids's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:35 pm

McCarthy didn't make personnel decisions prior to this year so your disdain toward McCarthy is misplaced.

"McCarthy's ability to make stupid decisions is approaching the stuff of legend".... I'll disagree and I'll go with Belichick's assessment:

"Mike's one of the best coaches I've ever gone up against" - Bill Belichick

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:45 pm

Uh-huh.

Say, I hear we've re-named the Coordinator jobs to Offensive and Defensive Scapegoat.

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Coldworld's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:46 pm

Turtles or no turtles, a punt returner who makes these mistakes is not good for the team unless he is all time good at reaching the (other) end zone.

With the speed drafted this year, what else about Davis stands out. His routes are raw and his hands are good, but he is shorter and thinner. How does he stand out as being better placed to master and then excel as a WR?

I am sorry, I simply don’t get the Davis as a WR love.

Additionally, being in his 3rd year will maybe count against him. He is not under control for as long as the other raw receivers.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:59 pm

I would keep Davis AND the 3 rookies. I'd cut Allison.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

May 14, 2018 at 07:28 pm

Yeah, well they are going to have to compete for their spots in spite of what you'd do.

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dobber's picture

May 15, 2018 at 09:40 am

They do have to prove that they can handle an NFL playbook on some level when they get to camp.

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snaus's picture

May 14, 2018 at 07:41 pm

When's the last time you've said anything positive on here? All I see is hatred and doom and gloom. There's a lot to like about this team. Now, to address your points.

1) Allison has the trust of Aaron Rodgers and chemistry with his fellow receivers. He is a prototypical boundary receiver who can be trusted to pick up first downs. Every teams needs guys like that.

2) I can guarantee that teams will look at Allison if he were to be cut. He may not be a special teams guy but he can be a productive receiver in the NFL.

3) Davis was better than people seem to remember as a returner last year, I'll admit that. But blocking on punt returns isn't exactly an easy assignment. Block too early and you're likely to get called for holding or a block in the back. Too late and your returner has to make a fair catch. It's tougher than it looks.

4) Patrick Peterson is an All-Pro returner. He was a Top 10 pick. Is that a dumb move? To say putting Alexander back there is one of the "dumbest ideas in years" is beyond hyperbole. Watch interviews with Jaire. He would welcome the chance to make plays on special teams.

5) Davis has more weaknesses as a receiver than route running. He doesn't track the ball very well at times and cannot get off jams due to his lack of strength and his frame. He'd be a decent jet sweep guy and a "shot" play receiver, but he has clear limitations.

6) You're right, none of the three drafted guys are returners. But Cobb, Montgomery, Alexander, and Tramon are. And Aaron Jones could return kicks as well if needed.

Bottom line: Using phrases like "Senility Ted" make you sound like a bitter, angry fan who looks for anything negative before anything positive. Allison, Rodgers, Ryan, and Rollins are below average for their positions for speed, yes. But Fackrell came into the Draft a couple years ago as one of the best athletes at linebacker. He's a core special teamer, and for good reason. Gilbert and Williams are above average athletes in their own right.

And McCarthy doesn't make the final call on personnel, that belongs to the GM. He has input, but he doesn't make the final decision. And it's far from "the stuff of legend." He's made far more good decisions than bad over the past dozen years. You can ask any of his peers in the coaching field or other GMs what they think of the Packers Front Office and Staff.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 14, 2018 at 09:16 pm

I love the line about turtles inhabiting the end of the roster.

MM is not a good HC.

I am okay with Davis making the team based on PR and gunner if his decision making improves. Not at all sure part of that isn't the execrable Zook, another reason to fire MM.

I am okay with Allison making the 53 until I see someone who looks like they can play better. Sadly, he looks like our 2nd best boundary WR. I'd like Allison more but it just so happens that he isn't what we happen to need. If our #1 was a burner I'd like Allison and how he fits on the WR depth chart better. Okay, Allison is probably third behind Adams and Graham.

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croatpackfan's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:45 pm

Here is one History lesson again: Jordy Nelson was no good till his 3rd season! After that he explode...

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Coldworld's picture

May 14, 2018 at 12:49 pm

True, but he was more polished than Davis. You make a good point though that Davis could improve, but he could also equally be a small Janis. I don’t see a small Janis getting through year 3

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flackcatcher's picture

May 14, 2018 at 03:19 pm

(small) JANIS! (sob............)

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cheesycowboy's picture

May 14, 2018 at 08:02 pm

No disrespect to Trevor but the GM drafted 3 WRs and a cornerback that can help in the return game. His spot on the roster is not a given by any means. Looking forward to the competition in training camp. Sincerely,

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dobber's picture

May 15, 2018 at 09:43 am

Can we ask for anything more?

WIN roster spots: that's all I'm asking for.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 14, 2018 at 09:09 pm

I've done my best to suggest that Nelson did reasonably well as a rookie, was actually pretty good by his second season but was behind a lot of good talent in Driver, Jennings, Jones, and Finley. I've tried to stomp this narrative to death but I just can't kill the beast.

In my book, Nelson's lack of playing time is just another example of MM going with the known rather than recognizing and playing the top talents.

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Tundraboy's picture

May 15, 2018 at 01:13 am

Yup. Thanks for dispatching the revisionist history. Two different teams and two very different WR groups. As for MM he is loyal to a fault and is devoted to his pecking order. While it is a nice thought for an orderly development plan and changing of the guard, things change quickly as we painfully know. Failed drafts, injuries and career ending plays. Problem is its a shorter season than other sports , and training camp is less and less an exercise in getting players further along than it is now more about avoiding injuries. All the more reason I am so excited for this TC. I think the fresh set of eyes and will put the team in a better position to recognize who can make this roster better.

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croatpackfan's picture

May 15, 2018 at 01:30 am

I believe you are correct TGR. But lets be honest, Jordy gets more playing time in his 2nd season than Trevor (barring ST KR & PR duties)...

If there is any indication what expanded playing time can do to the WR, you have not need to go further in the past, just re-watch game against Lions last season (17 week)...

Also, I know you can dig stats for Trevor and that stat would be indicative...

Additional point is that Aaron Rodgers spoke favorably about Trevor Davis after last season camp. Why MM and/or Bennett did not try to involve Davis more in their game plans, I do not know.

Anyhow, I agree with Since 61. Do not make case against or for any player in May. We should be patient and wait until TC will be finished. I think we will get all the answers than...

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 15, 2018 at 11:09 am

I think we agree. The narrative is that rookie WRs need three years in GB, and that isn't so far off even if I voiced a quibble as to Nelson. So give Davis at least two seasons and a TC, maybe even three seasons since I like him more than others seem to as a PR and gunner.

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cheesycowboy's picture

May 14, 2018 at 03:07 pm

This draft was about competition and Davis certainly is in the mix as a third year player. No practice squad room for Trevor. Thanks Zach. Sincerely,

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flackcatcher's picture

May 14, 2018 at 03:23 pm

Yup. It's the off season. Getting pretty thin for our CHTV writers here. Hang in there guys, OTA's will be here soon enough......

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

May 14, 2018 at 09:24 pm

Good to see the redundant comment material is still alive and well, though, no matter what time of the year it is!

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flackcatcher's picture

May 15, 2018 at 02:38 pm

So True.....0:)

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Firstdown's picture

May 14, 2018 at 07:16 pm

All you people who think Davis should be cut are nuts. Here's a few senior year college stats for you, Davis and Allison vs 1st and 2nd round draft picks that year-

Trevor Davis 9.6 YAC - 1.85% drop rate
Geronimo Allison 4.7 YAC - 6.06% drop rate

Pharoh Cooper 8.0 YAC - 4.42% drop rate
Corey Coleman 7.1 YAC - 8.00% drop rate
Will Fuller 6.8 YAC - 9.00% drop rate
Laquon Treadwell 6.0 YAC - 5.08% drop rate
Sterling Shepard 5.1 YAC - 2.5% drop rate
Michael Thomas 4.5 YAC - 2.22% drop rate
Tyler Boyd 4.2 YAC - 5.08% drop rate
Josh Doctson 3.4 YAC - 4.55% drop rate

(Stats source- Bill Huber)

What do those stats mean? 1) Davis has the best hands of all of them 2) he's the most explosive of all of them. He's the best possession receiver, and also the best receiver to stretch the field. He's sorta like Jordy and Randall in combined in one player.

You are what your record says you are, and this record says Davis was the best receiver in the 2016 draft (and we have him practically for free for the next two years).
He ain't going anywhere.

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Coldworld's picture

May 14, 2018 at 09:53 pm

Agreed. He has the preseason to click, but so far, he has not. If he doesn’t, we had better hope there are 5 or more better receivers than him in town.

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Firstdown's picture

May 14, 2018 at 09:54 pm

"College production doesn't always translate to the NFL."

The stats I quoted aren't production stats, they're efficiency stats. Prime example Laquon Treadwell. High production (because they threw him the ball), average efficiency.

"Those stats got him drafted... in the 5th round."

If Davis played at Ohio State or Notre Dame (or Wisconsin, he almost ended up there), he would have been drafted in the first round. If Thomas or Fuller played at Cal, they'd have been 5th rounders.

"You saying Davis is better is what's nuts."

His stats say he's better.

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dobber's picture

May 15, 2018 at 10:02 am

No...his stats say that he was more efficient on a per snap, target, or catch basis. Not necessarily better. Efficiency stats can be misleading that way.

He was tied for 5th in receptions on that pass-happy Cal team with Jared Goff throwing the ball. Goff threw 40+ TDs that season and Davis caught 2. He had every opportunity to set himself apart and be in the conversation as a higher value prospect. There's no way to meaningfully theorize draft position in juxtaposing players. Would Davis have been better off in run-first offenses with Joel Stave, Cardale Jones, or even Deshone Kizer throwing to him than Jared Goff?

Not a first or second option on that team. Probably not drawing a lot of safety help or bracket coverage. Guys like Thomas and Treadwell and others were getting a lot more defensive attention. Let's not diminish their quality based on their volume: teams will force their playmakers the football and defenses will scheme to try to take those big plays away.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/california/2015.html

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worztik's picture

May 15, 2018 at 10:26 am

Well said Dob...

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Firstdown's picture

May 15, 2018 at 12:41 pm

"No...his stats say that he was more efficient on a per snap, target, or catch basis. Not necessarily better. Efficiency stats can be misleading that way."

What's misleading about the stats saying that Davis had the best YAC and the best hands compared to the first and second round picks? And he had one of the hardest strength of schedules, at 11th hardest.

But you're certainly right in that you need to look at the whole picture, not just 2 columns of stats.

"He had every opportunity to set himself apart and be in the conversation as a higher value prospect."

He certainly did that. He was 5th in receptions on a hot-shot passing team, yet was the first receiver drafted from the team.

"Would Davis have been better off in run-first offenses with Joel Stave, Cardale Jones, or even Deshone Kizer throwing to him than Jared Goff?"

Actually, #1 pick of the draft Goff was better off every time he threw to Davis. Goff's completion rate - 63.7% vs 73.1% targets caught by Davis.
Goff's yards per target average- 8.63 vs 12.6 yards per target by Davis.

"He was tied for 5th in receptions on that pass-happy Cal team with Jared Goff throwing the ball."

That's more a coaching thing, and a QB thing, than something you could lay on Davis. Head coach Dykes is no longer a head coach, and the offensive coordinator is at a small school now. QB's are human, they have their personal buddies and their own quirks. Goff liked to throw to the right side of the field, Davis played on the left. All the receivers were platooned, but Kenny Lawler played on the right side and got the most targets, maybe he was Goff's buddy too, I don't know.

Speaking of Lawler, he came out early for the 2016 draft, was projected for the 3rd round, but was drafted in the 7th, and now he's playing in the CFL.

Davis vs Lawler's senior year stats-

YAC Davis 9.9 vs Lawler 2.7
Drops- Davis1.85% vs Lawler 5.62%
Catch rate- Davis73.1% vs Lawler 60.3%
Yards per target- Davis12.6 vs Lawler 7.5

Lawler had the worst receiver stats on the team, and yet he had the most targets. Why did Lawler have 78 targets, and Davis only 52? Didn't Cal want to win? It was a coaching fail in my opinion. Cal had the #1 QB in the country, they had 5 senior receivers who all made 53 man NFL rosters their rookie years, and yet Cal barely had a winning record.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

May 16, 2018 at 07:07 pm

I say give Davis a long look. This is a specialty that takes time to develop. Anyone think he isn't mentally working on his returns? How many times do you think he has reviewed each of his returns.

Separately, I would like to see Cobb as the back-up returned competing with a RB. I don't see Cobb as indispensible. Also, can anyone tell me the last time a Packer returner was seriously injured? I can't think of it.

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