Keys to Packers at Cowboys Divisional Playoff Game

The Packers head to Dallas to take on the Dallas Cowboys and if they want to get to the Conference Championship, stopping rookie Ezekiel Elliott is the key.

For the second time this season, the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers meet. Last time out the Packers lost, but this is a much different team, especially on offense.

The key for a Packers win this time out will be containing Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are going to want to put the game mostly in his hands for two reasons.

First, they will want to keep the pressure off Dak Prescott. While the rookie quarterback has been very good—especially as the regular season wound to a close—putting the game on his shoulders is a shaky proposition when he has so little experience.

Elliott played in some big games for Ohio State, and while this will dwarf all of them, he’s seen the spotlight. He’s also a running back and the pressure at that position, even if he’s the focus of the offense, is just different.

Secondly, and equally if not more important, is keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field. The Giants couldn’t do it last week, and eventually a very highly-regarded defense collapsed. Now, it would have helped if the Giants scored more than field goals in the first half—was anyone doubting that Rodgers would eventually put points on the board in the form of touchdowns?

That being said, the Giants only had the ball on offense for just over 25 minutes. The Packers and Rodgers had it for just over 34 minute and that was without a particularly robust ground game themselves.

That time allowed Rodgers to throw for 362 yards and four touchdowns.

The Cowboys can’t let that happen, because that puts an awful lot of pressure on Prescott.

Green Bay didn’t have much success stopping Elliott back in Week 6, as he gained 157 yards on 28 carries. They did keep him from the end zone, but that didn’t really help all that much given they lost and Elliott got Dallas close enough on a regular basis for them to punch the ball in via passing.

The Packers will need big games from two groups—the interior defensive line and the outside linebackers.

Elliott is adept at both inside runs and catching the edge. So Mike Daniels and Letroy Guion will need to be stout along the inside lanes and quick to respond when Elliott runs at them. Inside and MIKE linebackers like Jake Ryan, Blake Martinez and Joe Thomas will have to step up and contain when Elliott breaks through, but if the inside tackles do their job, Elliott won’t be going full speed through the interior holes.

He will, however, take runs outside on a frequent basis which is when the edge rushers need to do their job and contain him. Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Julius Peppers and Datone Jones can’t let Elliott get outside of them and head down the sideline for the big plays we have seen him kill teams with this season.

Of course, other players can and should step up. The secondary can get involved, particularly the safeties. The onus will be on the interior of the defensive line and the outside linebackers though, and their battle with Elliott is likely what the game will hinge on.

 
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Comments (27)

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ironman3169's picture

January 13, 2017 at 05:10 am

As long as Green Bay keeps up on offense, it'll only take a stop or two on defense.

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Bearmeat's picture

January 13, 2017 at 05:46 am

Yep. Dallas D is inferior to most of the defenses we've played in the past 2 months. GB can match this team score for score.

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RCPackerFan's picture

January 13, 2017 at 06:58 am

The keys to victory.

-First as we know games are won in the trenches. Dallas has probably the best OL in the league. The Packers defensively can't allow them to dominate this game. The DL has to have a good game to help contain Elliott and also to get pressure on Presscott.
While everyone wants to talk about how good Dallas's OL is, people forget to mention that the Packers OL is pretty damn good too. They give Rodgers time, he will tear apart the defense.

-Efficiency of the offense. I have seen a lot in prior conversations that the TOP will be huge in this game. That if Dallas wins the TOP battle that the Packers won't have the ball enough to do anything with it. I get the argument but what really matters is what you do with the possessions you do have. If the Packers get the ball 8 times offensively, the key is what they do with the ball those 8 times. They need to be scoring on the majority of those possessions.

-Redzone efficiency. To go with the previous statement, when the Packers get to the redzone they have to score TD's and can't settle for FG's.

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

January 13, 2017 at 09:15 am

Offensive scoring efficiency is far more crucial than TOP. Always has been....always will be.

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dobber's picture

January 14, 2017 at 09:34 am

When Elliott has been held to 4.5 ypc or less, Dallas has had to scratch and claw to win...still has a winning record in those games, but they average almost 5 points per game fewer than when he's over 4.5 ypc. I think that's the key this week: keep him under 4.5 ypc and Prescott will have more 3rd and 5+ to deal with...and that will give the defense a better shot at getting off the field.

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Lphill's picture

January 13, 2017 at 07:00 am

Guys please COW and others here are Viking fans certain people never post anything positive , if they were true Packers fans they would man up when they are wrong but they can't. Very simple.

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Since'61's picture

January 13, 2017 at 08:42 am

LP - exactly correct. Although I think that COW is a Bears fan. Bundy and the others are Vikings trolls. In the end it doesn't matter, they are not Packers fans. Thanks, Since '61

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Handsback's picture

January 13, 2017 at 07:21 am

If the defense keep and maintains their disciplines of gap control, and keep the Cowboys to 3rd and 4 yards to go...then they will get their fair share of stops. The Packers will play the short passing game and make those FS/SS back up a little and off the LOS. Run some to keep the Cowboys honest and pop a few long passes, I can see the Packers win by 7 points.

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porupack's picture

January 13, 2017 at 07:57 am

I think you hit the key problem for Packers; to contain the threat of Zeke and run game. Dallas has so many options with that strong Oline and the run game. Soon as packers commit extra men to stop the run, GBs Dbacks are so vulnerable to play action, short passes up the middle, TE seam routes; wow, the offensive coordinator must be having a fun planning week. Then Zak can pull so many Aaron Rodgers-like scrambles, bootlegs and designed runs. I don't see how GB can keep Dallas under 32 points.

Past history of slow starts, drive-killing penalties, missed third down catches, and aggravatingly predictable runs have to be the basis for assuming this will be the case in Dallas. But GB is capable of games such as 56 min of Seahawks playoff game 2 years ago, and game last week v Giants.

MM has come out with some amazing gameplans at times, such as the similar odds on paper against Seattle where GB manhandled hawks for 57 minutes.

So GB is capable. It might take some lucky deflections-turned-into intercepts, and an efficient Offense from the first to last minute...come ready to play. GB best chances are if it is a shootout. Can't see them winning on the defense unit's back.

I think GB gets beat pretty bad, but still hoping and trusting that MM pulls out another game-magic plan that goes for broke....and players execute accordingly...and a couple of near-misses...turned into just enoughs.

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Tundraboy's picture

January 13, 2017 at 08:08 am

All the obvious things. Grab a lead first, keep crazy Jerry world crowd out of game, force Cowboys into passing to catch up... But most critical of all to me is move the chains and dont go for the homerun on third and short. Maybe not at all unless of course there is an obvious misplay in coverage by the Pokes. But until the opportunity presents itself later to put the game away, just grind it out and avoid three and out. Just keep D fresh, and let Arod be Arod. ( i. e. no prevent D so they can play aggressive.)

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

January 13, 2017 at 08:20 am

Three things the Packer defense will need to do to put physical and mental pressure on Prescott. First, the Packers will need to to do a fair amount of long/short sitck run stunting with their DL in order to force Elliott to bounce outside the OTs on run plays. The Cowboys run a fair amount of gap scheme plays so spilling the play is essential to force Elliott to move lateral. This will require Thomas, Ryan, Martinez and Burnett to scrape hard outside. Matthews has to be especially cautious about running upfield because that creates lanes. Expect him to be more crash blitz/rush oriented.

The second aspect to the defense fits in with the run posture they will need to take. Dallas is most effective in their playaction passing game. Green Bay will need to play a fair amount of 8 man box defense but with that they need to show pressure, especially on early downs. Essentially they need to play run on the way to Prescott.

Lastly, the Packer defense will need to do A LOT of post snap movement. Expect to see some patented fire zone coverages in this game. Capers hasn't used it all that much and Prescott hasn't seen much of it this year. The two time where he saw a heavy dose of fire zone were in the two losses. The Giants did a TON of post snap movement and fire zone coverage.

Elliott will get yards but I don't expect to see a 150 yard performance. The first game these two teams played was much closer than the score indicated. If the Packers play clean they win the game by 10. The one advantage the Packers have is their ability to strike quickly. Dallas takes a more methodical approach.

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dobber's picture

January 13, 2017 at 08:56 am

Thanks for your insight POC. You always bring good stuff to the discussion.

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MarkinMadison's picture

January 13, 2017 at 09:51 am

I'd still like to see you write a book...

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4thand1's picture

January 13, 2017 at 07:33 pm

cowpie is at it again, dissing the Packers. Usually it means the Packers will win. I feel much better about the game now. thanx, cowsuck

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Rossonero's picture

January 13, 2017 at 08:27 am

If the Cowboys dominate time of possession, that will put even more pressure to capitalize on every possession we do get.

The Packers should watch film of the 2 times the Giants beat the Cowboys. Eli Manning wasn't a world beater in either game (207 and 193 passing yards), but he was efficient throwing for 3 TDs in the first match up. They also held Zeke to 51 yards rushing on 20 carries.

In the second match up, Dak had a bad game in his last full game, the 10-7 loss to the Giants. He threw 2 picks and forcing him into mistakes by pressuring is key.

We need a spy for Dak too. How many times have we watched our seasons end at the hands of Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick?

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

January 13, 2017 at 09:05 am

For years I've argued a need for a revert back to WCO principles. Historically, McCarthy's offense has been more about spread principles and forcing the ball in big chunks instead of controling underneath coverage and creating oblique stretches in the passing game. Too much vertical stem and option routes. It is too simplistic to cover especially when defensive personnel can match. Possession coupled with scoring efficiency is the most important factor for offensive success. It'll be no different for Green Bay on Sunday. It's the same level of importance for all 32 teams.

Interestingly, when they reverted back to maximum splits from 11 personnel in the 2nd half, they were able to take advantage of Trevin Wade.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

January 13, 2017 at 12:43 pm

"maximum splits"

I expect possibly missing Nelson hurts their ability there more than lining up in normal splits. Adams does it quite well, hopefully he can have another big game.

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

January 13, 2017 at 01:25 pm

They actually did more max. spread looks after Nelson was out of the game. Moreso in the 2nd half.

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4thand1's picture

January 13, 2017 at 07:36 pm

Exactly, they put up 38 after Jordy got hurt. Adams and Cobb healthy is huge.

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GB Jacker's picture

January 13, 2017 at 08:34 am

I just rewatched the week 6 matchup - they were at their peak and we were struggling but we could have won. 97 yard drive at end of Q2 where Gunter got burned twice. Then Rodgers terrible pick and fumble at the Dallas 1 in Q3. That was the difference. We're such a better outfit now. And Aaron in a dome.... I just hope Gunter and Randall hold up

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stockholder's picture

January 13, 2017 at 08:52 am

Bring the Rush! This game is the biggest game of the year for Datone Jones and Nick Perry. Both stand to make money with every sack. The key to beating a good offensive line is taking out the center. A couple of blind side hits couldn't hurt. Keep whitten bottled up. Elliott is not the greatest RB of all-time. Rookies can make the biggest mistakes in big games.

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Since'61's picture

January 13, 2017 at 08:53 am

As I posted earlier this week, the Packers front 7 need to have a big game this week. Keep Dallas in 3rd and +5 and get off the field. If they are allowed to maintain drives, even if Rodgers keeps up scoring wise the Packers D will wear down in the 2nd half and Dallas will pull ahead. Ideally, we build a 2 score lead or more and force Dallas to abandon the run. Even then, getting off the field after 3rd downs will be the key in this game for the Packers defense. Our offense needs to keep the Dallas O off the field with long drives of their own. Dallas is not built to come from behind. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61

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JDK52's picture

January 13, 2017 at 10:07 am

Many people are saying the Cowboys have a clear advantage in TOP, and will use that to take over this game. That may have been true mid-season, but the Packers have improved drastically since then. Final stats have the Cowboys at no. 2 in TOP/game, and the Packers at no. 5. the difference is a mere 41 seconds per game.

The Packers have every reason to believe they can control the pace of this game. Rodgers can slow it down and burn clock just as easily as Elliot, and has consistently done it against better defenses in the second half of the season.

I believe McCarthy will give Rodgers a short-yardage passing plan early in the game to keep Dallas D on the field for 5+ minutes a drive.

Dallas won't win this game on TOP.

The game will be decided by mistakes; all it will take is one turnover or crucial redzone stop, by either team.

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Lphill's picture

January 13, 2017 at 01:14 pm

COW aside from game predictions you have been preaching for awhile that "12" is done , nothing left in the tank. Start the Brett Hundley era, so why can't you admit now you were wrong ?

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Robinant2's picture

January 13, 2017 at 04:00 pm

Having Quinton Rollins will be a huge lift being that he like Cook didn't play in Week 6's matchup and also having Randall will be a big help too for the whole game he left in the 2nd quarter with a groin injury.

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dobber's picture

January 13, 2017 at 07:51 pm

Sadly, I think the threads the last day or two have ended up being more about Cow than about the Packers.

Can we change that, please?

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DrealynWilliams's picture

January 14, 2017 at 11:08 pm

But y'all continue to feed him.

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