Joseph's Gems: Prospecting in the Top-15

As the 2022 NFL Season continues to play out, a look at what possibly awaits the Packers on Draft Night in 2023.

We're in the thick of December and usually, Packers fans are thinking about one thing....the playoffs. Whether it's seeding, potential playoff/Super Bowl opponents, or home-field advantage, Packers fans are accustomed to wondering if this is truly their year. Unfortunately, this time around Packers fans may be left wondering if their 20+ year run of being regulars in the NFL postseason might be finally coming to an end. While the Packers are still holding on to a very slim chance to make the playoffs, it's more likely that the Packers will be holding out hope for a serious haul of new talent in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft. If General Manager Brian Gutekunst plays his cards right, the Packers could reload at several positions of need for a bounce-back year. 

Given the Packers' decision to continue to make a push for the playoffs, the Packers have taken a slight tumble down the Draft, once picking as high as 9th, but now currently slated to pick 14th. The 14th Overall Pick may not be as "sexy" as a pick in the Top-5 or even the Top-10, but if there's one thing you can be sure about is that Gutekunst will try to maximize his value by moving up or down the board as he sees fit. Who might those players be that the Packers' Front Office might covet? Part II of Joseph's Gems is here for The Pick.

If you missed out on Part I, you can revisit that here. But let's do a quick recap on where we started roughly a month ago:

WR Quentin Johnston, TCU/Prototypical X-Receiver

TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame/Traditional Y Tight End

OT Paris Johnson Jr, Ohio State/Franchise Left Tackle

Edge Myles Murphy, Clemson/Scheme Diverse Defender who can play from 2-Point/3-Point and in Odd/Even Fronts

 

So without further adieu, "....with the 14th Overall Pick, the Green Bay Packers MIGHT select:"

Michael Mayer, TE - Notre Dame

In the previous edition of "Gems", the first thing I was excited about with Mayer is the fact that Gutekunst could most likely trade out of the Top-10 and get potentially a Day 2 pick in return. However, in this scenario, I don't expect Mayer, who had yet another 65-catch, 800-yard season to escape the Top-20; and that's just fine on value if the Packers make him the selection at 14th Overall. Mayer's only downfall may be that he's not the athletic burner that NFL teams yearn for, and that too is also okay. What the Packers will get is a traditional TE who can play in tight immediately and run block well, giving the offense additional flexibility in sets. Mayer won't run away from many pro-defensive backs but he will create problems for linebackers with his excellent body control and catch radius which makes him dangerous when isolated on a single defender. What I also really like is once he does get a full head of steam he can be really dynamic with his push to create extra yards by either running through the defender or angling his body to create leverage and get out or away from would-be tacklers. Like RB A.J. Dillon, there will be many a defender that might have to make a "business decision or two" once he's full speed ahead. Mayer may not be the sexiest downfield weapon but with a career YPC of 11.5 at Notre Dame, he can provide the missing wrinkle in the passing game for Green Bay. Presently, Marcedes Lewis is the only TE under contract in 2024, and for all intents and purposes, he's more of a sixth offensive lineman than a downfield weapon. Both Gutekunst and the roster are still feeling the sting of flops Jace Sternberger and Josiah Deguara. If Robert Tonyan isn't given a new deal, either due to the Packers not being interested or because he's offered better money elsewhere, the TE position could be really sore in the next two seasons.

Brian Branch, S - Alabama

Branch is listed as a Safety, but he's really a hybrid defender who lines up just about everywhere in the secondary for the Crimson Tide. He's not Minkah Fitzpatrick, but he plays the "Star" position that was Minkah's claim to fame. In fact, Branch led the 2nd-most efficient defense in Alabama's Saban era, behind only Fitzpatrick's in 2017. That's saying ALOT given the "stud factory" Alabama has become since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa. What really gets me pumped up about Branch is he has the highest tackling grade in all of college football at 92.0. In his ENTIRE college football career, he's missed only TWO(just two!) tackles, with the most recent being all the way back in 2020. Given the Packers' struggles in not only the run defense but tackling, that's a mentality I would love to see in Joe Barry's struggling, discombobulated scheme. The Packers have been really struggling on the backend with the decline of Darnell Savage, which I personally feel is not only a scheme issue but a mental one; and Adrian Amos while still playing above board may be a future cap casualty as he gets older. If the addition of Branch to this unit causes no overnight improvement, that's yet another indictment on the loathsome defensive coordinator.

Jared Verse, OLB - Florida State

Verse transferred to the Seminoles last year from FCS' Albany and transformed their defense overnight. As an Armchair GM, I don't believe in designated pass rushers, if you're on the edge, you better be able to stop the run, and Verse has a nose for the football in run support. Verse has the athleticism to chase down the ball carrier on the back side of the play behind the line, with a quick first step to shoot gaps when the offense attacks his side of the ball. Verse will generate sacks too, with an 85.2 pass rushing garnered from his 7.5 sacks this season. The scary part is Verse looks like a stud after only one year in the ACC, he's still got plenty of growth in his game and with the right coaching and mentorship we could be looking at an All-Pro by his 3rd NFL season. As the saying goes, "you can never have too many edge rushers....", but in this case, the Packers simply don't have enough, especially given the loss of Rashan Gary to injury for the season, who'll probably need 18 months to get back to 100%. Kingsley Enagbare, who I spurned during the 2022 Draft has been a pleasant surprise, but the Packers are 1 more injury away from street free agents being in the starting lineup. I love Preston Smith, and I hope he doesn't become a cap casualty, but it's a possibility given the Packers' cap woes. Now some might say that a 1st Rounder isn't necessary to address the edge position, but Rashan Gary was selected 12th Overall when the Packers had both Preston and Za'Darius Smith in the starting lineup, and you see how that panned out. 

Paris Johnson Jr., OT - Ohio State

The familiar Johnson bookends Part II of this series, as he's still the #2 OT on my Board in regards to talent, but because of projected metrics(length & athleticism), he's my de-facto #1 OT (don't let that trip you up) that should "slide" to the Packers at #14. Johnson is continuing to plow through the season with only 8 total allowed pressures against some of the best defensive fronts in the country and despite their unraveling against the defensive juggernaut that is Michigan, Johnson was one of the lone bright spots the entire game. With the CFB Playoff pitting the Buckeyes against the defending champions the Georgia Bulldogs, I expect him to continue his streak of not letting anyone get past him and into the pocket. Johnson's explosiveness, physicality, leadership, and versatility at LT, RT, and RG can't be overstated, which should finally allow the Packers' offensive line unit to finally settle into a group that can grow together. Whether it's Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love, the QB needs to be protected at all times; plus somebody's gotta make holes for Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillon to run through. If Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball are as savvy as we know them to be, they should be able to restructure and get back exactly what the Packers spent in draft capital to get David Bakhtiari, a 4th Round Pick, saving about $7M on the salary cap. Given Bakhtiari's struggles to remain in the starting lineup and the Packers' financial chickens finally coming home to roost, this is a move that may prove to be a necessary one despite any potential elite talent left on the board. 

With two iterations down, we've had two players stick around, with two new ones arriving in the spotlight. Keep in mind, the fact that Mayer and Johnson stuck around for a pick that's 5 selections later is no black mark on their respective parts, but as the season progresses players will rise and fall to include the NFL teams that will ultimately select them as we get closer to the final standings. Looking at the current Draft Order, this upcoming week could see a ton of movement given that several teams have the same records or are within 1 or 2 games of each other; going from inside the Top-5 to possibly touching the Top-20. With some high-profile matchups yet to be played and many teams continuing to push for the playoffs, the Packers are just as likely to find themselves back inside the Top-10 as they are in the Top-20. Stay tuned to CheeseheadTV.com, where we'll wrap up our prospecting as we finalize the 2022 postseason matchups.

#GPG

 

 

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__________________________

Joseph has been an avid fan of the Green Bay Packers since 1997, citing an affinity for dairy products during his childhood and his favorite color, green. Born in Jacksonville, FL, Joseph currently is an Active Duty servicemember in the U.S. Armed Forces. Joseph considers himself a lifelong fan of the game of football, competing since his youth well into adulthood. When it comes to the Pack, Joseph is particularly impassioned about the NFL Draft and collegiate scouting process, and will contribute regularly on CHTV.com leading to that year's upcoming Draft. You can follow him on Twitter at @joeyreyallday.

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Comments (31)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Johnblood27's picture

December 22, 2022 at 06:05 pm

Thanks Joseph, it is nice to get a bit of a head start on looking at the available talent in the 2023 draft.

I am still looking at a possible playoff spot, and I could see a 2010 late season run for the GBP...
never give up, dont ever give up!!! there aint no quit in me!!!

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stockholder's picture

December 22, 2022 at 06:54 pm

Don't want any of them. The TE is too hyped. The Safety is Savage and Dix. The Lb has a chance, but there are better tacklers.
And I wouldn't draft Paris Johnson at all. Michigan ate him up.
So if I'm Gutey. I'm trading back. Any change in rd 1 plus a second gets us 2 good starting players.
So try this: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-draft-simulator
The NTs will drop. 3rd rd. As we saw last year. The TEs and safeties are very deep. 2 of each must happen.

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JosephR's picture

December 22, 2022 at 10:51 pm

It's way too early to mock draft, period. This is purely a projection based on stats, film, and level of competiton.

Savage and Dix aren't even in the same mold themselves, so I'm not sure how you got that comparison let alone comparing Branch to either. Savage was a far more dynamic free safety for the Terps, playing nickel and on the backend. Dix is a "traditional" free safety. Branch can play nickel, free, and strong. Saban didn't give Dix half the responsibilities at Alabama that he gave Branch.

This safety group based on my current evaluation isn't very deep at all, unless some people really pop during bowl season, I've got maybe 5-7 on my board, currently projected to be all gone by the 5th Round. But again, it's still very early; I'm sure there will be some corners who are recommended to make the switch to safety in order to make it in the NFL. However, I'm not quite there yet in my evaluations.

TE classes are very fickle historically, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Take the 2020 3rd Round: Devin Asiasi/91st Overall(39 career rec yds in 3 years), Josiah Deguara/94th Overall(still mostly unproven), Dalton Keene/101st Overall(16 career rec yds), and Adam Trautman/105th Overall (starting in his 3rd year for the Saints)

From that class, only Cole Kmet and Trautman have established themselves 3 years in.

Now obviously, the same could be said for Mayer, but what Mayer has going for him is program pedigree (Notre Dame - Cole Kmet, Tommy Tremble, Kyle Rudolph), stats (2100 rec yds in 3 years), and game resume (52 receptions against Top25 teams). He really just needs a solid Combine or All-Star performance to cement him as no less than a Top 40 selection.

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stockholder's picture

December 22, 2022 at 07:21 pm

My OL - Peter Skoronski OT 6-4, 315 NW
My Safety - JL Skinner FS Boise State. Climbing!
My TE- Dalton Kincaid TE Utah Climbing! - Tony Gonzalez
My Edge - Isiah Foskey DE. ND
Best player to draft for the Offense - Jalin Hyatt WR Tenn.
Best player to draft for the Defense- Trenton Simpson Lb Clemson

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JosephR's picture

December 22, 2022 at 11:02 pm

I need to see Skoronski at the Senior Bowl, I'm not saying he's all hype but I think for the NFL he's RT only.

I've been watching Kincaid but he's another Deguara to me, and slower at that....he's not in the same league as Tony who was far faster than either, while also being taller. LaFleur's offense doesn't cater to such a player in the mold of Deguara or Kincaid if you ask me. Between Gute and LaFleur they need to have an intimate conversation on the TE that works for his offense.

Foskey is a DPR, he'd do nothing for this defense.

I can't get a fix on Hyatt or Simpson yet but I'm looking forward to the game.

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stockholder's picture

December 23, 2022 at 08:14 am

If Skoronski can play Rt you still draft him. Versatility First with the packers. They say he'll end up at Guard. And Jenkins sat out again because of his knee.
Tankathon has Highlights of Kincaid. It's impressive. You can see the hands. His projected speed is 4.6. Do you know Gonzalez combine numbers? I have him 2nd rd. He's been labeled a top 20 beast by 1 scout.
Foskey - I say they change this defense; if Barry gets canned.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 22, 2022 at 11:06 pm

I would rate Broderick Jones over Skoronski. I like the Edge from Kansas State, Uzomah, similar to KGB. Kincaid or Tucker Kraft. Pick up a Big Ten TE in the later rounds, maybe two. I would take Trice as a safety or Mark Perry in the fourth. Not spending a high pick on a safety. They will need an OT and CB to take the perimeter with Stokes out. Yes, trade down in the first and bag another second. Maybe they move a player for a two pick? Sean Tucker, RB from Syracuse is a guy to watch. Get playmakers.

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stockholder's picture

December 23, 2022 at 08:20 am

At least you see the trade down.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 09:38 am

I would try to get three picks in the second round. I would move some of the deadweight off the squad.

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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 10:01 am

Uzomah is good but raw, but has lots of upside. Jared Verse of FSU, Will McDonald of Iowa St, and Zach Harrison of Ohio St are all really good.

Skinner is worth the pick. You should see him play

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 11:07 am

I watch the blue field team. I like the Mountain West style of play. Harrison is moving up boards.

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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 09:59 am

Stock - both you and I want Skinner and Kincaid! Simpson I think would only work out if we reverted to the 4-3 next year

Skoronski best profiles as a Guard

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stockholder's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:23 pm

They just signed Jenkins. Doubt a OL in Rd. 1 now.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:43 pm

OT with a two pick would still be prudent.

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MooPack's picture

December 22, 2022 at 08:25 pm

Thanks Joseph, very good analysis. For the 1st round, I'm thinking it depends on, at this point, if Joe Barry is still the DC. If he is, then Defense should be less of a priority. Why waste the pick on a very suspect scheme? Only caveats would be if Myles Murphy, Jalen Carter, and Bryan Bresee are available in that order. They would probably outlast Barry. The trenches should almost always be at the top of the list regardless. And this run D is, to put it lightly, lacking. Safety is a top need, but can be gotten at the bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd for the better ones. That is where the best safeties usually go year after year.

On Offense the 1st round pick should be among this group:
OT Paris Johnson - yes, without a doubt best Tackle on the board. At 14 the Packers would be very lucky to get him. He would reset and solidify this line for years to come. Broderick Jones, Anton Harrison, and Jaelyn Duncan are further down.

TE Michael Mayer - TE is a huge need. Only worry is does he have enough separation speed to get open and extend the play. However, as you stated, he does very well in contended passes against defenders. He may be one of the safest picks in the 1st round. Darnell Washington is most likely in the 2nd.

WR - not sure the need is as great if Watson and Doubs (even Toure) continue to improve, but these could be there: Quentin Johnson (if YAC translates), Jaxon Smith (if back to pre-2022 form), Rashee Rice. I'm not on board with Hyatt and Addison. Fast, but too slightly built. Probably be able to trade down a bit to get a WR.

Also, depending on what happens to Aaron Jones, Bijan Robinson is player to track. If Jones is let go, don't discount them picking him in 1st. If you don't know Bijan Robinson, educate yourself. Great vision and cutting ability along with very very good receiving on par with Jones. RB's are no longer the 1st round picks they used to be, but he is most likely an exception. He is an exciting game changer.

For fun draft (although not out of the realm of possibility):
1st round - TE Michael (Myers) Mayer - Halloween
2nd round - OG Andrew (Jason) Vorhees - Friday The 13th
It would be a team marketing dream. They could make a fortune on game masks alone.

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JosephR's picture

December 22, 2022 at 11:09 pm

Everyone wants a burner at TE, but it's not completely necessary in my opinion. The Packers need a guy who can get a 1st Down on 1st Down or make it a 2nd and short. That kind of player keeps the LBs busy which opens up the run game. That's Mayer's calling card. If he can get a couple extra yards to make it a 12-15 yd reception that's fine with me.

I watched Bijan early in the season and he absolutely could go in the 1st, but I can't see the Packers making that move. I think Aaron Jones will get a restructure if necessary to remain with the team.

I'll delve into WRs in a month, I'm almost certain we are looking at a 4th-6th Round selection. Way too early to project those guys right now.

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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:24 pm

What about Darnell Washington of Georgia? He is a BEAST, and is far and away the best blocking TE in the draft. He also is a great receiver who is tough to tackle.

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stockholder's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:28 pm

Size is great. But he looks awkward with the ball. The top 5 TE's in the NFL weigh in around 250.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:45 pm

Long strider. Didn't look good blocking in the SEC CH Game.

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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 05:54 pm

Are you kidding? He made LSU's EDGE rushers look like nicklebacks

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splitpea1's picture

December 22, 2022 at 08:40 pm

If Mayer is available, the Packers should grab him, as it is an obvious need going forward. He's supposedly the safest pick at his position with nice size and good all-around skills--which is just what we should be looking for. Also has the endearing nickname of "Baby Gronk", so what's not to like?

I don't think the Packers will or should be interested any undersized tight ends. If they're looking for a huge, M. Lewis type of replacement, Darnell Washington may be available later on.

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Lphill's picture

December 23, 2022 at 06:39 am

all I want for Christmas is Jim Leonhard!

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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 09:57 am

Joseph, thanks for these articles, I always enjoy reading them. It's funny, because Jared Verse, Brian Branch, and Michael Mayer were all players I had on the Packers' "draft watch list" for 2023.

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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 10:08 am

Here are my favorite prospects for the 2023 NFL draft:

TE:
Michael Mayer, Notre Dame (mid 1st) - Mayer is a great prospect at TE who just shattered Notre Dame's all time single-season receiving record for TEs. He has great hands and runs great routes. Is a high-floor prospect who could start day 1.
Darnell Washington, Georgia (late 1st) - At 6'7, 275 lbs, Washington is a BEAST, but you wouldn't know it if you saw the way he moved. He is far and beyond the best blocking TE in the class; he can take on EDGE rushers with ease. He has a brutal stiff arm, and is VERY tough to bring down. A sure-handed, lean-framed playmaker in space
Dalton Kincaid, Utah (early 2nd) - Kincaid reminds me a lot of Travis Kelce due to his incredible receiving skills and RAC ability. He is a solid blocker, but the Packers will probably need to get an in-line guy later if they take him
Tucker Kraft, South Dakota St. (mid-2nd) - Kraft is the second-best blocker in the class, and does so very well. He also is a very athletic pass-catcher and RAC threat

S:
Brian Branch, Alabama (mid 1st) - Branch has a 100 tackling rating from nfl draft buzz, and is very fundamentally sound. He can play all positions in the secondary
JL Skinner, Boise St (mid 2nd) - Skinner is my favorite SS prospect. He is 6'4, 220 lbs, and delivers HARD tackles. His instincts are what I like the most though, and what all the most successful DBs in the NFL have - Skinner logged 4 picks this year.

EDGE:
Jared Verse, Florida St. (mid 1st) - Verse is the most explosive EDGE rusher in the class. He is a speedy guy, but also has great power. He has a lot of upside.
Will McDonald IV, Iowa St (late 2nd) - McDonald is a true OLB who can win with speed - reminds me a lot of Will Anderson Jr, the top EDGE prospect in this draft. He logged double-digit sacks in 2 of the last 3 years despite playing as a 3-4 DE, an obvious misuse of him, when he would profile much better as an OLB. It's exciting to think about what he could do in the pros.
Zach Harrison (mid 2nd) - How many EDGE prospects do you know that are 6'4 and 275 lbs but run a 4.4 40? Harrison has immense athletic upside, and I think he'd profile well at OLB. He is like Rashan Gary on steroids.

WR:
Cedric Tillman, Tennessee (mid-2nd) - Tillman is a great deep threat and great blocker who made lots of outstanding catches for the Vols. Thrives on contested catches
A.T. Perry, Wake Forest (mid-2nd) - Perry is 6-5, 205, and could be a great Lazard replacement. He is a great deep threat, and like Tillman, specializes in contested catches.
Xavier Hutchinson, Iowa St (early 3rd). Hutchinson is also a great deep threat who excels in contested catches
Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss (3rd) - Mingo is a Deebo-Samuel type gadget player who could be really fun to watch with the Packers. There is some injury concern with him, though
Cornelius Johnson, Michigan (4th) - Johnson is similar to Romeo Doubs in a lot of ways in his playing style, and is a great deep threat. He also has lots of run blocking experience being at Michigan.

DL:
Zacch Pickens, South Carolina (mid 2nd) - Pickens is a disruptive player up front who is 305 lbs but runs a 4.9 40. He is an all-around great DL in both run D and the pass-rush especially.
Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin (late 3rd) - Benton would profile as a NT, allowing Clark to move to DE. Benton has great pass-rushing skills for a 315 lb player, and can stuff running lanes as well. The NT plays a critical role in Jim Leonhard's scheme, so if he is the Packers' next DC, this could be a player to look out for.
Byron Young, Alabama. (mid-3rd) - Young, earning a 97 run defense rating from NFL draft buzz, is tailor-made to stop the run, a critical weakness of the Packers. At just 280 lbs, there could be some size concerns, though

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 11:16 am

Benton is a guy I would target. He will be mid-third rd. My preference is to use 4-2 sets with Benton and Clark inside and let Wyatt team with Gary at the DE/elephant. Investing big money in edge free agents has had mixed results.

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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 10:34 am

I don't know about selecting an OT high - Nijman and Tom could form an excellent Tackle Duo of the future. If one doesn't work out we can always draft an OT in 2024. It isn't our largest need

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 11:18 am

They cannot handle the bull rush and Nijman is exposed by fast edge guys. Get Better.

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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:15 pm

Tom can fix that by bulking up in the off-season. If Nijman struggles in 2023 then we can get someone in 2024. He is a top 10 tackle in pass block win rate

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:27 pm

The lack of a high pick at OT the past couple of seasons has cost a chance to compete for a SB. Tom moves well, but his frame is not massive to carry a lot of weight. Stockholder likes him @ center, but Myers is picking up his game lately. See how they fare vs Miami. The experimenting is done.

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stockholder's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:26 pm

They signed Jenkins. Nijman is the RT. And Tom might be Bahks replacement. Unless Rodgers takes a pay cut.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:51 pm

The future CAP moves Up with the TV contracts, Gambling, draft king etc. Bhak looked good with his reps. They put him on the field too soon. Just bad luck with the appendix. They don't grow on trees. Not sold on Nijman, The reason I wanted the OT with a two pick last Spring. He wanted Walker and we lost a two. Maybe they both take a pay cut.

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