It Makes Sense to Triple-Dip in the Draft Once Again

In three of the last four drafts, the Green Bay Packers have selected three players of the same position, and it makes sense to do that once again.

Selecting three players at the same position is a trend that began during the 2017 draft and is something that at the time flew a bit under the radar. I'm guessing that not many anticipated it becoming a trend for the Green Bay Packers in the draft, but since then, it has happened in three of the last four years.
 
The 2017 NFL Draft was Ted Thompson's final as General Manager, and he would select three running backs that year--Jamaal Williams in Round 4, Aaron Jones in Round 5, and Devante Mays in Round 7. The following year during Brian Gutekunst's first draft as GM, he would take three wide receivers--J'Mon Moore in Round 4, Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Round 5, and Equanimeous St. Brown in Round 6.
 
Then after not tripling up on a position in 2019, the Packers did it again in 2020 by selecting three interior offensive linemen in Round 6--Jon Runyan, Jake Hanson, and Simon Stepaniak.
 
In all three instances, these selections have taken place on Day 3 of the draft. Green Bay identifies a position of need and selects a few late-round prospects, hoping that one of them sticks. I imagine anything more than that is just gravy.
 
Before selecting their trio of running backs in 2017, Ty Montgomery became the starter during the previous season. At receiver prior to 2018, Jordy Nelson had just left via free agency, Randall Cobb was in the final year of his deal, and Geronimo Allison was an unknown, leaving Davante Adams as the only long-term option on the roster. 
 
When it came to selecting three interior offensive linemen, the Packers knew that Corey Linsley likely wouldn't be back, Lane Taylor was in the final year of his contract, and they were also planning ahead for the possibility of Billy Turner being the team's right tackle--which he was.
 
This is a simple strategy, but also a really smart one considering that the odds of a Day 3 pick working out are relatively small. So why not increase your chances of success by selecting multiple players at that same position? 
 
Looking ahead to the 2021 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers currently have 10 picks, which once again makes them prime candidates to go this route and select three of one position.  But which position would it make the most sense to do this with? 
 
The most obvious, in my opinion, is cornerback. Other than Jaire Alexander, there is no guarantee that anyone else currently on the roster is going to be a part of the team beyond the 2021 season. While Green Bay can hopefully find someone to compete for playing time right away, they also need to restock the cornerback shelf for future years.
 
Another position that could use an overhaul is the interior defensive line group. Much like cornerback, Kenny Clark is the only player that we know will be a Packer past this season. Unfortunately, this is not a deep defensive tackle class; in fact, many draft analysts are calling it the worst position group in this year's draft. So although this is a major need, that could be a reason why Green Bay doesn't triple-dip at this position. 
 
I would also include receiver as a potential candidate as well. The Packers could look to add another playmaker to the offense early on, but I wouldn't be surprised if they added a player or two late as well. Currently, they have no receivers under contract after the 2021 season, and while I do anticipate a Davante Adams' extension to take place, you obviously need more bodies. 
 
Now, that doesn't mean Allen Lazard, Valdes-Scantling, or St. Brown won't be back in 2022--we just don't know at this time. And because of that, planning ahead for what could be a thin wide receiver group next offseason is the smart approach. 
 
Will the Green Bay Packers take this same approach in 2021? Your guess is as good as mine--Gutey sure loves to keep us on our toes. But when something has happened in three of the last four years, it shouldn't be overlooked either.
 
It takes the right combination of having a position that could use an infusion of young talent and the board falling the right way. You don't just want to take a player for the sake of taking a player. With that said, as I highlighted, we know that there are positions where this strategy makes sense, and the Packers do have the draft capital to load up if needed. 

---------------------

Born and raised in Green Bay, WI and I still call it home. After my family, watching the Packers, sharing my opinions on the team through my writing and interacting with other fans is my greatest passion. You can find me on Twitter at @Paul_Bretl. 
 

NFL Categories: 
6 points

Comments (39)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Archie's picture

April 05, 2021 at 03:18 pm

It would be interesting to randomly draw a player at each pick to compare how they fare compared to the players actually picked. In fact you could add a 3rd draft where you randomly select a player at the same position as the actual pick. You would think the GM picks would fare better given the advantage in the early rounds but who knows.

re: triple dipping - I remember when Wolf used his top 3 picks to select CBs. Of course, those were top picks. Regardless, every time the pack has done so they have come up with at least one very good player.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
jannes bjornson's picture

April 05, 2021 at 12:59 pm

And he missed on two out of three, only saving his ass by trading Vinson for Green. Another steal by big Ron to hedge his bets. You cannot have major misses from the top picks. It cost the Pack a chance to be in the Big Game in 2020-2/21. J Jones, Jackson, Burks and no defensive playmakers or depth. The weak links then become exposed and we know NFL games are usually decided by 2-3 plays.

+ REPLY
1 points
4
3
flackcatcher's picture

April 05, 2021 at 02:28 pm

Nah... Those were good choices coming from good programs. Getting one out of the three is pretty good for any draft, position or not. The rest is on the field decisions, which Wolf had no voice in. (But it did cost Mike Sherman his job later on)

+ REPLY
-2 points
1
3
jannes bjornson's picture

April 05, 2021 at 03:36 pm

Blowing the first and second round selections is a failing grade.

+ REPLY
4 points
5
1
CoachDino's picture

April 05, 2021 at 03:57 pm

Agreed that missing your first and second round picks is draft bust material but it depends how you look at it. Analytically 1st and 2nd rd picks fail at about 50% of the time. Define failure: One common way is if they were given a second contract.

Is it a failure if you miss on your 1st and 2nd rd but hit big in later rounds?

How is UDFA, Drafted players, FA's and trades all weighted? Just looking at Gute I see one of his strengths being the ability to perform well in finding UDFA, Drafting, Trades and FA. Some years better than others depending on the area. Tough to grade him on FA when your cap doesn't allow it.

I see this years draft being loaded with CBs that all have issues that will push them down the board but have the talent that shows the potential for development.
I don't see it in OT/IDL there's some in IOL and WR but the big ones are CB/RB/S.

So my hope is they grab that OT early (hopefully trade down and pick up a late 3rd/ Early Fourth) then grab a IDL/CB in rds 2 and 3. The start stockpiling CBs and WRs

As always it depends on how the board falls. That's what's great about the Mock draft simulators, you can really see how things can go wrong fast when the board doesn't cooperate.

+ REPLY
3 points
3
0
NoNonsense's picture

April 05, 2021 at 09:08 pm

Great point Coach, until you try a few mock drafts to get a feel for how the draft unfolds, you really have no idea how quickly you can go off the rails or end up with multiple players at the same position.

I'm a when in doubt, trade down, kinda guy but most mock drafts don't allow trades. Gute seems to be more targeted, not afraid to spend draft capital to get his guy. Sometimes that means he might take a guy a round or maybe two early, just to ensure he gets who he wants. I can respect that.

You just can't scout every player equally. Sometimes you gotta go with your gut. You also need guys that will "bang the table" once in a while for a player when your on the clock. I'm sure Gute doesn't sit there and unilaterally make decisions, hopefully they try to build a consensus of sorts among the people in the draft room.

With all the time and effort that goes into these drafts, it has to be agonizing to sit and wait while all your targets fly off the board. Not only do you need good scouts to draft well, you need to be able to read the teams picking ahead of you to know who they might take. There has to be a lot of regret and should of, would of, could ofs in draft rooms across the country every year.

+ REPLY
3 points
3
0
CoachDino's picture

April 06, 2021 at 04:12 am

It must be so intense. Can you imagine resources dedicated to it the supporting the best draft decision process. Staggering.

+ REPLY
0 points
1
1
Since'61's picture

April 05, 2021 at 11:58 am

To me this is a matter of the strength of the draft. Since this draft is allegedly deep at CB we should at least double up if not triple up at CB. As for DL this is not a deep draft at DL so I don't think the Packers should triple up there.

As for receivers as of today we have no one signed for 2021. We need to be prepared to lose Adams to FA. To me this means drafting a WR in one of the early rounds who can evolve into our #1 over the next season or two. Even if Lazard or MVS returns in 2022 neither of those can be relied upon to be our #1 WR for the longer term. ESB is likely gone unless he makes a huge leap in 2021 and even then he would be our #3 or #4 at best. I could see Gute tripling up on WRs again unless the Packers are going to move on from Rodgers after 2021. And this year's draft may give us a good indication of the Packers plan for Rodgers beyond 2021. If they don't extend Adams or draft a WR again or take only late round WRs it probably means Rodgers is done in GB.

See how Love plays in 2022 and then surround him with some actual weapons if he proves he can find them during an actual NFL game. In the meantime he can handoff to Jones and Dillon if he knows which way the play is designed to go. However if the Packers draft a WR or 2 in rounds 2-4 that would be a more positive sign for Rodgers remaining in GB for another 2-3 seasons at least.

Bottom line is that if 3 solid CB picks are available in this draft when we are selecting we should take them. if we're not moving on from Rodgers we should get him some legit NFL weapons beyond Adams, again if they are available when we pick. 3CBs, 2 WRs, 2DLs, ILB, OL, QB. Sign UDFA RBs and ILBS. Of course trying to figure out what Gute will actually do is a bigger crap shoot than the draft itself. Thanks, Since '61

+ REPLY
2 points
8
6
jannes bjornson's picture

April 05, 2021 at 12:45 pm

As far as I'm concerned bag three and start two of them. Walsh won a Super bowl with three rookie DBs
starting for the defense. There is no excuse to have guys like King and Sullivan manning the coverage and blowing another opportunity to advance to the Big Game. The Jury is out on Packertown, LLC to bring it Home in 2021 or get run out of town for a new management team. Rodgers stays as long as he wants to remain in a State where the Q balls want to rescind a Mask Mandate and make believe a GED certificate supercedes a Phd. in Virology for qualified
opinion on policy.

+ REPLY
-2 points
5
7
Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2021 at 02:31 pm

I’d be perfectly happy starting with 2 DBs if that’s how the draft falls, then dipping a third time later. I could also see 3WRs on day 3 (if one is a slot/option/returner. In between DL and OL.

Improve the competition now, early, restock the pipeline later. Must of our hikes are in the same places and thus less in number. A goid time to focus on the sparsely populated areas.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
jannes bjornson's picture

April 05, 2021 at 03:39 pm

They need to hit on two CBs, an OT and a WR with quicks or a DT if a guy is there in the 3rd. Watching the same cracked bricks fill the wall does not inspire a safe feeling for the structure.

+ REPLY
2 points
2
0
PatrickGB's picture

April 05, 2021 at 01:26 pm

I have read that CB’s are the strength of this year’s draft. If so I can see us tripling up on that this year. Yet if a quality player with a high RAS drops then that theory goes out the window.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
flackcatcher's picture

April 05, 2021 at 02:45 pm

I rather play Vegas than do the draft. Better odds... That said, Gute got two main missions for this draft. Find future starters and build the back end of the roster. Any plug and play is a bonus for this year's roster. At this point we all know this roster is a one year and maybe a second. Beyond that, who knows.

+ REPLY
-1 points
0
1
Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 08, 2021 at 02:01 pm

'61, I like that post. Good thoughts.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
MarkinMadison's picture

April 05, 2021 at 12:08 pm

Double-Double. You need two shots at DL, at least, because it is not believed to be a strong group. You need two shots at CB at least, because you have a bunch of question marks. This is not the year of the triple. This is the year of the double-double. I'm going to copy right that. That means you can't copy it.

+ REPLY
7 points
10
3
jannes bjornson's picture

April 05, 2021 at 12:52 pm

They had two years to bring in some free agent big boys, but sat on their hands. There may be a couple of dudes to pry out of the fourth round if they commit to a three/four technique guy. It would be a thrill if they can snag a true five tech to hold the fort and apply pressure. We don't know how multiple this guy Barry will be. If he stays in the light front scheme, prepare to accept another season of pain.

+ REPLY
0 points
2
2
LeotisHarris's picture

April 05, 2021 at 09:02 pm

Damn. I love the collaborations around here. You guys just generated the next great CHTV headline: Will the Year of the Double-Double Lead to Another Season of Pain?

+ REPLY
3 points
3
0
Leatherhead's picture

April 05, 2021 at 09:28 pm

Season of Pain?? You want to talk about pain?? How about losing to theBears 61-7? Losing twice to the Lions by a combined score of 60-0?? Passing over Joe Montana, twice?? 13-3 and a division title Isn’t that painful. The 83 season felt like I’d given birth to a chainsaw. In reverse.

+ REPLY
6 points
6
0
LeotisHarris's picture

April 06, 2021 at 09:21 am

Absolutely, LH. Just trying to lighten the mood around here; thought the suggested title made for great CHTV clickbait. The 70s and 80s were bleak and often humiliating.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
jannes bjornson's picture

April 08, 2021 at 01:29 am

Passed on Montana three times in that draft. Bart was clueless as a GeneralManager.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2021 at 02:34 pm

We aren’t getting a Clark I fear. As such, can probably pick up as effective players this year in bargain FA in the summer. No more light supposed penetration types. Stop the run and let Clark disrupt unless there is a 310 or more pound gem hiding who has real potential to do some of both.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
HankScorpio's picture

April 05, 2021 at 06:00 pm

"it is not believed to be a strong group." is a better argument for zero DL than two of them.

+ REPLY
1 points
2
1
mnbadger's picture

April 05, 2021 at 12:29 pm

Mark, I'll double up your plan and Quadriple Double plus 2 your board. (copyright pending)
2CB's
2WR's
2DL's
2ILB's
2(1+1) CB and WR

GPG

+ REPLY
-4 points
3
7
dobber's picture

April 05, 2021 at 01:47 pm

I might just have to order a quadriple double next time I go to the bar...

Do I need to pay royalties every time I do?

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
PatrickGB's picture

April 05, 2021 at 01:31 pm

Don’t forget punter. I would not be surprised if one was selected. Scott needs to go. I also think that a ST’s player may be coming. ~

+ REPLY
0 points
2
2
Leatherhead's picture

April 05, 2021 at 09:34 pm

I don’t understand the Scott stuff. I think he’s a pretty goo punter. He had a stretch where he was hurt a little, and he tackles like a little girl, but he’s a pretty decent punter. We’ve had worse.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
stockholder's picture

April 05, 2021 at 03:04 pm

The Packers could triple dip at Four positions. DL, CB, Wr, Lb, It's just a matter of which position they start off with. The biggest thing is why? Gute had a chance to fix the Defense Line. ( Free Agency last year.) The Lbs? He had a chance to draft it last year. And why keep on drafting Cbs? Wasn't Jackson his man. We wanted a WR in Last Year's Draft . Even a Veteran before that draft. None! Which mystified every draft Guru around. Looking back is easy. Looking ahead; will shatter that crystal Ball. We heard Rodgers wasn't going anywhere. Yet, ESPN just did an interview. That questions everything going on between Rodgers and management. Don't expect Gute to fix anything. To him nothings broken. But if we get insides Gutes mind. The best way to approach this draft, is what does Love need.

+ REPLY
-3 points
2
5
canadapacker's picture

April 05, 2021 at 04:49 pm

Lots of armchair GM's -especially Jannesborg - Gute has done pretty good both with the free agents recently ( except maybe Kirksey - but is that scheme?) Now even the great TT failed with a lot of first rounders - Justin Harrel and a few others - The year that they took AR, they took Terrence Murphy but passed on Vincent Jackson who was much better. Hindsight is 20-20. Now just look what the competitor for the worst NFL franchise - sorry Cleveland - the Jets beat you out . Trade their 3rd round quarterback to be able to draft another and ruin his career as well. Now doesnt it make your wonder what we have in LOVE?

+ REPLY
1 points
2
1
Leatherhead's picture

April 05, 2021 at 05:56 pm

I liked the recount of the recent history of triple-dipping. It does suggest there's a pattern, which would be sign of a plan (if you're one of those people who think there is a plan) . I agree you only need one to hit and everything else is gravy. But they've hit on WRs, and RBs and we'll see if any of those guys we got last year work out.....I think at least one will.

So it seems like a strategy that's working, and yeah, CB would be an obvious place to look for it. I think CB is about the hardest position to evaluate, even harder than QB. CBs have to run, tackle, and cover some of the most dangerous guys in the NFL and they need help from safeties and pressure on the QB . One bad mistake equals 7 points. I guess that's why they always say as there's no such thing as having too many good DBs.

It's customary to carry 10 active and one more on the 53. Two safeties and their backups, three corners and their backups. Some guys do double duty. And we might even carry one more if we plan on playing a lot of dime defense, And these guys get hurt.

As of this moment, the Packers starting safeties are good. Above average, IMO. Jaire Alexander is primo. Sullivan is a middle of the bell curve guy, King is a little better. Jackson , maybe. After that we could use help, for sure. Who's the first guy in if somebody gets hurt? The second?

Considering we need 10 or 11 on the 53, and we've only got about 6 or 7, we're going to have to get more.

I'd like to see the Packers take a DB on Day Two, even if it's a safety, even if we had to move around a little to get him around #40-#50, and then use a couple of Day 3 picks to help flesh out the roster. It makes sense.

+ REPLY
2 points
2
0
blondy45's picture

April 05, 2021 at 06:16 pm

If there is not quality, (DL) at the top of the draft, we must pass until later. If there is quality early (CB, OL) pick that position as long as the player fits Green Bay's system. If someone drops unexpectedly to 29, take that player regardless of position except QB which will not happen these days anyways. This year we have no glaring absolute must have starter to come out of this year's draft. We have basically returned our 2020 team.

We have several areas that must be restocked for the future. I hope we keep as many draft picks as possible, if for no other reason than to help replace the many who will not be on the Packer's team in 2022 and beyond. We are cap strapped again next year. I wrestle with Quantity verses Quality with later draft picks, but we need to take more bites at the apple on draft day on several draft positions. Triple up is OK with me. For the Pack IMO, we should not be in the market to trade UP. I would love to trade back at 29 to early 2nd round and ADD 2nd and 3rd round talent. I am surprised to see teams giving up so many picks to get closer to the top of their draft boards. Most teams are like the Pack, needing to get good players on cheaper rookie contracts for the future. I can not see teams willing to give up draft picks this year. A trading partner may be hard to find. So, I hope the Pack stays pat or trades back, and takes many good bites in this year's draft.

+ REPLY
4 points
4
0
stockholder's picture

April 05, 2021 at 07:24 pm

DL.- Don't pass on that till later. Draft a DL before the end of the 2nd rd. Any one in that range can beat out Lowrey or Ke Ke. Pass the CB for later. Horn and Newsome will be gone. While trading down in the first might net you an extra 3. I would only do it for that extra 3. Because your best and most versatile CBs are there in the 3rd. The cbs have moved up. Gute should reach here. Adeebo, Thomas, Melifonwu , Wade, Wilson, Williams, all could make the packers roster. And Gute should triple down with the cbs. Take them early. 2 cbs in Round 3 if possible ! And I would trade the 2nd and third to move up in the beginning of the 2nd for that DL. BPA @29. It's the smart thing to do this draft.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
canadapacker's picture

April 05, 2021 at 07:54 pm

The biggest thing with this draft is that most mocks have predicted that 5 quarterbacks are going pretty early - way before us anyway. That should mean that we are really getting a talent at 20 , more like the 24th best player in this year crop. And if these mocks are anywhere close - there are an additional 7 offensive players ( OL, WR, TE etc going before us). That means that we will be getting one of the top 12 defensive players in this draft. So I would assume we need to go defense first - if we want to make an impact, I believe that our approach on picking defensive backfield players up high has not been the best strategy while we have somewhat ignored the linebackers up high since CM3.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
stockholder's picture

April 05, 2021 at 08:13 pm

Gute will still ignore the Lbs. Look for them in the 5th and 6th. Oweh is CM3. He's your best shot.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Coldworld's picture

April 06, 2021 at 08:30 am

The problem with DL is that if we want a player that projects to be stout against the run and disruptive as well, we do as you say, have to draft early.

The difficulty is that I see no credible candidate that is likely to fall to us, or close enough to matter. To take DLs early in this draft is to likely perpetuate the light line that has failed for us. To compound that, if Barry does indeed move to one ILB as default, it is imperative that our DL be more effective at run D.

The more I look at this draft class, the less I see a high DL pick that makes sense happening and the more I think it is a trap. Better to pick up less penetrative players later than recommit to lighter players.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
optimisticfan's picture

April 05, 2021 at 10:24 pm

Less likely triple at any position. More likely double-double (2 CBs, 2 DL) or triple-double.

1) Gute probably trades up in 1st and/or 2nd. 1st to get quality CB (Newsome II or Horn if one of them falls into the 20s). Maybe also move up in the mid 2nd (DT, OT, slot CB). Aggressive going after 2 top 50 players is the risk to take in win now mode.

2) Pack probably end up with ~ 7 picks rather than 10 picks = less chances for quality triple players at one position. Gute will continue to try churning the bottom of the roster with UDFAs, cheap FAs, waiver signs etc

3) Packers basically resigned most of their team from last yr. Check out the roster. Tough cuts to make to get to 53. Don’t see how they make room to keep anywhere near 10 drafted players on 53. Already have to cut some players (like Sternberger kept over Dafney, room for 7 draft picks = dropping potentially Malik Taylor, ESB, Burks, Summers, Galeai, Ento, JJ or Hollman, all of the 1 yr fill-ins at DL etc) Many of those players are key contributors on STs. Check the roster currently and count to 46 players to be kept on the 53 plus the 7 soon-to-be drafted players. There are a lot of other players that Gute is going to try to slip onto the PS.
Also hopefully 1-2 cut FAs from other teams added later at the beginning of the season. No way GB drafts 10.

+ REPLY
-2 points
0
2
Coldworld's picture

April 06, 2021 at 08:34 am

Just because we brought players back doesn’t mean that they stay. The sun from the draft is to get a few who become real contributors—that’s the jam—and to restock depth to compete with the back end, play ST, or develop. Same every year, but a little more emphasis on the play now element due to cap squeeze.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 06, 2021 at 07:57 am

Gute,
My dream draft wish list:

A handful of big bodies on both sides of the line with a very mean streak that will Knock the Snot Out of You!

:)

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
LambeauPlain's picture

April 06, 2021 at 09:29 am

If there is a Gutey Triple Dip, this is the year to do it at OL. OT is ranked as the second best position group this year and interior OL is rated a the 4th best group.

Sadly DL is ranked dead last is this draft class. One DLineman with first round grade, another with a second round grade. Edge isn't much better.

WR ranked 3rd best, CB is rated 5th best. LB 6th.

With QB the top position (PFF thinks 4 will go with the first 4 picks for the first time), some good O lineman will get pushed down giving Gutey some good potential value for a triple dip.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 06, 2021 at 03:37 pm

Lambeau,
Guarantee (if there was some way I could) that wherever you are reading those position group rankings, as well as player rankings within those position groups is not how Gutey has everything evaluated. This is one of the big reasons why so many fans on here get so upset and bummed out following the draft.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0

Log in to comment and more!

Not a member yet? Join free.

If you have already commented on Cheesehead TV in the past, we've created an account for you. Just verify your email, set a password and you're golden.