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How the Packers Can Realistically Make the Playoffs

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How the Packers Can Realistically Make the Playoffs

Following the Green Bay Packers’ heartbreaking loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday, the team finds itself in a familiar position. For the second straight year, it will need to run the table to make the playoffs.

After watching the Packers rally from 4-6, to 10-6 and a berth in the NFC Championship Game a season ago, anything seems possible. And even though Green Bay sits at 5-6, two games back of the final wildcard spot in the NFC, the season is far from over.

But before the Packers start thinking playoffs, they need to find a way to survive the next two weeks with Brett Hundley, who had a career night against Pittsburgh, throwing three touchdowns, compared to zero interceptions.

With Tampa Bay coming to Lambeau Field this week, Green Bay has a great opportunity to get to 6-6. Even with Jameis Winston starting, the Packers are favored to win. And if Hundley can continue to build on his newfound confidence, the team might just be able to do something it hasn’t with Hundley yet, which is win back-to-back games.

With any backup quarterback, that can be a tall order. But with Tampa Bay at home this week, followed by a road trip to Cleveland in Week 14, it’s entirely possible. And if the Packers can get it done, it would set the stage for a dramatic return by Aaron Rodgers for a Week 15 matchup against Carolina.

But two wins and a potential Rodgers return aren’t the only reasons the Packers have hope. The challenging schedules of some teams in front of them, could provide an opening down the road, particularly with games looming against fellow playoff contenders Carolina and Detroit (Week 17).

Currently, the Packers sit in ninth place in the NFC, tied with Dallas, Washington and Arizona at 5-6. Yet, Green Bay ranks ahead of all those teams, leaving them trailing Detroit (6-5), Seattle (7-4) and Atlanta (7-4) for the sixth and final playoff spot. Carolina sits in fifth right now at 8-3.

Atlanta is the team holding the sixth seed right now and the Falcons do hold the tiebreaker over Green Bay, but with games against Minnesota, New Orleans (twice) and Carolina still ahead, nothing is a given.

The Seahawks also have a challenging schedule, starting this week with the Eagles. After that, Seattle will play Jacksonville and the Rams, before closing with the Cowboys and Cardinals, two other teams that as of now, are still alive. And with Detroit being one game up on the Packers, that score could be settled by Week 17, so if Green Bay did run the table, it should easily pass the Lions.

It’s also conceivable that Carolina could lose three of the next five games. The Panthers not only play a Green Bay team that could have Aaron Rodgers back in two weeks, but it also plays at the Saints, home against the Vikings and at the Falcons in the final week of the season.

If Carolina losses at New Orleans and at Atlanta, plus drops the game to Green Bay, they would wind up 10-6, giving the Packers a chance to catch them with five straight wins.

Obviously, none of these scenarios matters unless the Packers start winning games. One loss and the season is over for Green Bay. But if it can win the next two and gets Rodgers healthy after that, then at least there is hope. 

Sometimes, all it takes is a spark. The Packers got it with a road win over the Eagles a season ago and this time around, hopefully a home win over Tampa Bay, can have the same impact.

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (56) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

HankScorpio's picture

No, they do not have a realistic shot at the playoffs.

Curt's picture

Depends on how you define realistic shot - last year it took six wins in a row and some help. This year it takes five wins in a row and some help.

The big difference is obviously Rodgers being unavailable for at least the first two games of the five. Winning the first two with Hundley could prove easier than the next three even with AR.

HankScorpio's picture

"Depends on how you define realistic shot"

True enough.

What needs to happen is outside my definition of the term.

Tarynfor12's picture

Every play in this game will have an OMG attached to it for Packer fans.
Packer fans in Las Vegas may be better off going to the Heart Attack Burger Grill....likely safer eating one of those.

Slim11's picture

"Mathematically alive..." is the phrase which comes to mind after reading this.

I hope it happens. It's not likely, though.

Razer's picture

Classic - Good stuff

Bearmeat's picture

How do they get in?

Simple. Win out. That's it. Win the next two with Hundley and hope that ARod can carry the team through the last 3. I'd personally give that a 35% chance of occurring.

But what are we really expecting even if we get into the playoffs? Is this a Super Bowl team with this defense? Nope. Will Capers be fired if the team makes the playoffs? Nope. So does the idea of just making the playoffs and getting embarrassed by giving up 40 (again) really make me happy? Nope.

I'm torn. Do I want to make the playoffs more than I want to see defensive change? I really don't know.

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

GB could (Could) get a boost this week from the games if Minn +3 can pull off a Win at Atlanta. That's No Small Order, & GB can overcome a +1 1/2 deficit @ Home against TB. That usually doesn't happen, but TB?? Detroit is +3 @ Baltimore. Carolina is +4 @ New Orleans, & Philly is -6 @ Seattle. A Tall order, but Not impossible.
LVT

Tarynfor12's picture

LVT....the point spread means nothing as covering it doesn't equate to a win toward playoff possibles for the Packers or any other. Each win gets you closer and each loss gets you farther away period.

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

Tarynfor12, You don't think I know That?? Come On, give me a little credit. I bet according to the point spreads. I try to go against where I think the Money is, Remember?? I studied the board last night at GVR. The game here that scares me the most is GB. These are all Tough Games. At this point I don't think I'll bet any Straight Up. I'll play a few on a 1/2 Pt. Parlay. Just looking at the board, with the exception of the GB game, my 1st guess is the money is the other way on all of them. I'm taking your last advice & keeping my winnings to myself. I'm on an unbelievable run the last Now 4 weeks, both on Football & in the Casino, including the last 2 nights at GVR. I know it will come Crashing Down at some point. Another Good Week Going. Can't help but enjoy the ride. For all those who want GB to make the Playoffs, I hope they do. I'm more interested in AR's health.
LVT

Tarynfor12's picture

No body is talking about the betting side of these games as I said before. It doesn't matter here if the point spreads are covered or not...just the outright win.
Need to talk spreads...give a gmail for you and we can talk via that if you wish...but you're talking to the wrong crowd here with betting. : }

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

Tarynfor12, I realize that. When I talk to you or Post on here, & mention Pt Spreads, I'm really thinking of Outright Wins 1st, Not Covers. If I get the Cover, Great!! Just as an example: If GB is getting Pts, & I like GB, I'm thinking they can Win, other than the 14 last week. There I was looking for, & got the cover. I probably shouldn't post the lines of these games, because as you say, the Fans here don't care. I just thought it would help others in knowing who is favored, & what to expect. Can't give a G-mail on here. I'm sure you can understand that. I thought there would be more Betters on here that I could enjoy talking with, but you are right, there are not. I am really surprised at that. To me, it's like going to the Race Track & watching the Horses run around the track without betting on one of them. Do you know of any NFL Betting sites, where Fans talk betting the games. Not that I would listen to any of them, unless it was Wayne Root.
LVT

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

Jonathan Spader, Thank You!!
LVT

Johnblood27's picture

I mostly enjoy LVT getting shot down on every attempt to get TF12 to meet him.

LOL!

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

It may have sounded like that, but it was strictly business. My wife is -1 +1 to Cristy Brinkley, & -7 1/2 to Marie Osmond. I'm interested only in winning or making $$$. Taryn knows the facts of the teams. I've never even considered that when betting a team. She plays according to Hoyle. I go against that. I think we've both done Pretty Well. I'm at the point where I'm losing my edge & could use some help. Thought maybe we could put our knowledge together, THAT'S ALL!! If it sounded like I was trying to Hit on her, it wasn't meant to. It would cost me a Small Fortune. She's probably Pretty Nice, but Not That Nice. Sometimes I get carried away, but my Wife would have been with me.
LVT

Qoojo's picture

Panthers/Saints - 3 games behind (L)
Falcons - 2 games behind (L)
Seattle - 2 games behind (W)
Detroit - 1 Game behind (L)

Behind 4 teams for final WC spot. L means lose tiebreaker, W means win. For every L, add another game needed.

Saints - 4 games behind (L)
Panthers - 3 games behind, will play them 12/17
Falcons - 3 games behind (L)
Seattle - 2 games behind (W)
Detroit - 2 Game behind (L)

5 games left. Packers need to win them all. Very high probablity that panthers/saints get a WC spot. So they need to gain 3 games on Falcons, 2 games on detroit, and 1 game on seattle to get final spot, excluding 3+ way team tiebreakers.

It's very possible to make up deficit of detroit and seattle, even without winning them all. So looking at falcons, they play Vikings, Bucs, Panthers, Sainstsx2. They only need to win 2 of those games, which will most likely happen.

Then the panthers, the packers would need to win out, and for the panthers to lose 2 out of the last 4, given packers win against them, to Saints, Vikings, Bucs, Falcons. Plus, Saints need to win division. Not likely to happen.

Plan on a draft pick in the teens.

Bearmeat's picture

No. It's not likely. But it's more likely than you are making it sound. I can easily see the Falcons going 1-4 the rest of the way. Ditto the Seahawks. They control their own destiny with the Lions.

That means that they're probably looking at a #6 seed with a 10-6 record. @ either LA, NO or MIN in the 1st round.

croatpackfan's picture

You are counting Detroit 2 games behind?

No, Detriot already lost their game for this week. Packers need to win all, so if they not win this week, Detroit might be 10 games behind, Packers will not see play off. So, If we are counting how much games we arte behind who, you have to get in calculation win over TB.

Conclusion is that Packers are only 1 game behind Detroit!

As I wrote few days ago, only chance for Packers to go to play off with 9-7 record is that Vikings lose all till the end (which is highly unlikely, baring rush of injuries on their roster!) and Detroit should lose at list 2...

But, this season is so strange in NFC that everything can happen, even that Packers finish season at 5-11...

Pauly's picture

I see where TT will have 12 draft picks in 2018 (10 in first 5 rounds).
Rd 1 = 1
Rd 2 = 1
Rd 3 = 4 (2comps, 1 trade)
Rd 4 = 1
Rd 5 = 3 (2 comps.)
Rd 6 = 1
Rd 7 = 1
Possibly 4 in 3rd round (depending on Hyde/Bennett). I disagreed with his idea of quantity over quality approach in 17 with 10 picks and cutting 3 of them.
(Jones and Beigel was good move)
What's the chance he will trade around to end up with 7 (app) picks in first 3 rounds looking for top proven talent where the vast majority of pro-bowl players are drafted along with some washouts of course.
He traded way up for Mathews.. that worked for years.
I would think he could trade a couple of 3rds plus 2 lower ones for high/medium first round picks a couple of times for instance.
Add in a couple of talented young FAs, a TE and pass rusher and AR could be in a great spot for future.
This could be TTs last draft,, his legacy,, hopefully he will see it as he better go "ALL IN" for his own future.

Nick Perry's picture

"This could be TTs last draft,, his legacy,, hopefully he will see it as he better go "ALL IN" for his own future."

Legacy?? Thompson's "Legacy" is and always will be the GM who had Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as his QB's and only managed to put a team around them capable of getting to AND winning ONE SB. THAT'S Ted Thompson's legacy!!

Ted Thompson is the most OVERRATED GM in the NFL. The one thing this season has shown to many of the so called "Experts" is just how bad this team is without #12. Many are now questioning Ted Thompson's ability of building a team and evaluating talent and rightfully so!

stockholder's picture

TT will be the Packers GM. The super-bowls are hard to win. TT's legacy will be that the packers won more , than they lost under him. Were very lucky that this site allows us to disagree. SB Nation does not. I agree TT needs to do better in the drafts. But I'm also glad we didn't have a GM with a losing record. The Black eye is the defense. We've seen Draft after draft try to fix it. It's time TT makes changes. It's obvious Capers is his problem now. He must fix that first.

HankScorpio's picture

Compare the Packers to the Saints this decade. I think it is an excellent comparison. The Saints won it all in 2009 and the Packers in 2010. Their current GM/HC duo has been in place since 2006. Both have HoF QBs that led the charge to the aforementioned SB win. The Packers faced an extended absence of their QB twice, the Saints dealt with Bountygate suspension of Payton in 2012. The general perception for both teams is that a lack of defense held them back from achieving more. It's hard to get such an extended comparison with so many common factors.

By and large, the Saints took a more aggressive approach in the offeason. They were aggressive in trading up in the draft, trading veterans and in FA. Many of those moves drew the praise of critics for "going all in for Brees". They went through 4 DCs in that time in response to their defensive issues. In short, they took the approach that the TT/MM Hater Club advocates for the Packers.

None of it worked. They didn't get back to even as far as the NFC CG and developed some cap troubles. That led to 7-9 finishes the last 3 seasons. They have turned things around this year, thanks in no small part to what looks like an outstanding draft class. But they are still not getting much love as a legit SB contender. Probably because their best wins are against 6-5 teams (Buf and Det) with losses to Minny, NE and LA Rams. Their cumulative record in this decade is 71-52.

Meanwhile, the Packers have made the playoffs every year of this decade, played in 2 more NFC CG (beside the 2010 SB winning year) and posted a 81-41-1 overall mark, even with the handicap of Capers.

So while I do think there are legitimate gripes about both MM and TT, the notion that they are incompetent morons being carried by Rodgers simply doesn't stand up to the comparison to another team that has fared objectively worse with a QB that is fairly comparable.

RCPackerFan's picture

GREAT post Hank!!!

I completely agree with all of it.

RCPackerFan's picture

Say what you want about Thompson now as a GM, but make no mistake about it. He was handed a terrible team with Favre, and turned it around into a Super Bowl caliber team.
Also, he was the GM in his first year to draft Aaron Rodgers. Remember what that day was like for most Packer fans. In his first draft as the Packers GM, he took the QB to replace Favre. That was not an easy move to make.

I would say that Thompson's first half of his GM career was better then his 2nd half. Which is why I think its time to move on.

That being said, I am grateful for the team he was able to assemble to bring the Lombardi Trophy back to its home.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

It is a nice post, Hank. But it is superficial, and I absolutely hate it. There are similarities, of course, but you've not mentioned the elephant in the room.

Mike Loomis can't draft. At all. While many of us think that TT is not strong when drafting for defense, Loomis makes TT look like Einstein in that regard. TT is also much better than Loomis when drafting offense as well. The following comparison uses PFR Career Average on the drafts for NO and GB from 2006 through 2016. That seems fair since it does not include AR, just like Loomis doesn't get credit for drafting Brees since he was a FA. I also think Sean Peyton is a moron or at best a one dimensional coach as well, but that's another post.

Defense: Since 2009, NO has drafted players with a total career AV of 220. GB's selections total 427. Can't imagine why NO's defense just stinks. Worse, 2 of the 3 best defensive players NO drafted left NO ASAP. Cam Jordan (20% of the total 220 pts) is still there. DB Malcom Jenkins, fully another 20% of the total points, played out his rookie deal and bolted as soon a possible: he's been playing for NYG since 2014. Akiem Hicks didn't even last through his rookie contract. Loomis, that genius, traded Hicks while he was still on his rookie contract for a known nobody, veteran TE Michael Hoomanawanui, who has caught 16 passes for 128 yds in 23 games for NO. 5.56 yds/game! Brilliant move.

Since 2006, the defensive numbers are 322 for NO to 576 for GB. That's a 64%/36% landslide. Loomis managed to hit on Ninkovich, Roman Harper, but the points btw 2006 and 2008 are still 102 for NO and 149 for GB.

Offense: The numbers are still easily in GB's favor on offense - maybe TT is a genius drafting offense. I think he's really good, myself. Still, since 2006, NO selections have produced Car Ave. gross of 644, while GB has a whopping 904. Still have that 58% to 42% landslide in favor of TT.

It is worse than that in some ways though. Loomis' best offensive drafts were in 2006, 2007, and 2008. In those 3 drafts, NO has 438, but GB still earned 515 points. Since 2009, NO has just 206 points, while GB has 389 points (doesn't include Bress or AR, mind). Back to that 65% to 35% split in favor of GB.

FA: So, what is a GM who can't draft worth ---- to do? Buy players. The thing is, I don't know NO well enough to really analyze their FA acquisitions, particularly going back 5 to 10 years. I was startled by the link below where they casually mention that NO paid $45.7M to FAs in 2016. Sounds like a lot to me, even if it includes small contracts. Byrd, Browner, and Spiller were bad signings. Brees might be the best FA signing of all time. Sharper's one year deal in 2009 helped them win a super bowl when Sharper intercepted no less than 9 passes that season. So did signing Hargrove, who had 5 sacks for NO as a DL in 2009. Sproles was worth every penny in 2011. Some big misses, some hits, and big cap problems.

Conclusion: I agree that TT is a much better GM than Loomis. I just don't find the comparison useful. If Loomis had been our GM for the last 11 years, I'd be screaming bloody murder.

TL;DR: We should keep TT because he's better than Loomis isn't an argument. TT is better than Matt Millen, too, after all.

https://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2017/2/24/14431510/new-orleans-sai...

HankScorpio's picture

Good stuff, TGR.

i'd like to clarify that I was merely trying to prove TT/MM rose above the level of incompetent moron. I found a pair that did less with a HoF QB.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

You are very kind, Hank, to take my reply in the spirit intended. I didn't like the post, not the poster. We agree on several things: both GMs did their best work early in their careers. I think you're correct that Loomis has managed to do less with a HOF QB than TT/MM. I think TT and MM are pretty good at what they do, but I do think it is time to move on from them. I decided to run some controls before drawing conclusions about TT by checking Pittsburgh, MN. I found some errors as well in my transposing numbers. The control data is making me re-think things.

GB D: 149 391 = 540. Gross O+D = 1387
GB O: 457 390 = 847. Since 09 O+D= 781

NO D: 192 220 = 412 for D. Gross O+D = 1056
NO O: 438 206 = 644 for O. Since 09 O+D = 426

PIT D: 207 248 = 455 for D. Gross O+D = 1160
PIT O: 125 480 = 605 for O. Since 09 O+D = 728

MN D: 217 281 = 498 for D. Gross O+D = 1034
MN O: 221 315 = 536 for O. Since 09 O+D = 596.

Most Career Av points Off + Def since '06:
1. GB 1387; 2. PIT 1160; 3. NO 1056 4. MN 1034

Most Career Av pts for Off + Def since 09:
1 GB 781; PIT 728; MN 596; NO 426

Most Career Av pts for Defense since 2006:
1. GB (540); 2. MN (498); 3. PIT (455); 4 NO (412)

Most Career Av pts for defense since 2009:
1. GB 391; 2. MN 281; 3. PIT 248; NO 220;

Most Career Av pts for offense since 2006:
1. GB 847; 2. NO 644; 3. PIT 605; 4. MN 536;

Most Career Av pts for offense since 2009:
1. Pit 480; 2. GB 390; 3. MN 315; 4. NO 206;

A few caveats and observations. MN's offensive numbers are inflated because they drafted 2 QBs whose Car Av points are included in its numbers. Even though Ponder wasn't very good, and Bridgewater is so-so, they combine for 44 Car Av points because Pro Football Reference overvalues QBs. By comparison, Cobb has 47 and Bulaga has 43. The Career Av points for AR, Brees, Roethlisberger are not included in their teams' points because they were drafted before 2006 and because Brees was a FA. It also appears that GB lost a lot of talent - players whose Car Av points total 188 are not on the 2017 squad, guys like Raji, Hyde, B. Jones, Neal, Wilson, L. Guy, Palmer, etc. Finally, timing is important. The total Car Av points of Barr, Rhodes, and Harrison Smith is almost equal to CM3's total: I know I'd rather have Barr, Rhodes and Smith playing rather than CM3.

Hmmm, maybe we should NOT dump TT. The stats suggest that he is pretty good at drafting, even defense. An issue might be he's quantity over quality: Best D Players drafted by TT: CM3 (73), Hawk (59), Collins (43), Raji (33), Burnett (28), Poppinga (26), Daniels (25), Jolly (22). 5 of these 8 are gone, and a sixth isn't the player he used to be.

HankScorpio's picture

Once again, good stuff, TGR.

Another thing to consider among those 4 teams is number of players drafted. I took a glance at their PFR draft pages. Just from the glance, it appears that NO is much more likely to have small draft classes, Minny had some smaller classes through about 2010. That suggests those franchises de-emphasized the draft as a means of talent acquisition and/or followed the approach that trading up for quality was preferred to trading down for quantity. Since '10, Minny has been closer to the Pitts/GB way than the NO way. The numbers you found fit that observation.

But again, that was part of the original post. Most of the crowd that firmly believes TT is utterly incompetent advocates the kind of approach NO takes. Trade up for "quality" picks. Don't be afraid to trade picks for veterans. Go out and "make a splash" in FA without regard to cap consequences. They are convinced that the steady approach of TT is doomed to fail. The reason I picked NO is because both teams have had the same HC/GM combo to go with a HoF QB. The two teams won SBs in back to back years. It was almost a lab experiment on one approach vs the other. The only significant variable in comparing the two approaches is TT's eye for talent vs Loomis' eye for talent.

Point Packer's picture

How we make the playoffs? Find a capable backup (like NE always does) before the season starts so that if your #1 goes down for a spell, he can win 40-50% of the games.

dobber's picture

I've got my time machine all revved up. Let's go!

fastmoving's picture

if we win the next 2 games he is as close to 40 % as you can get with a 7 starts sample size........

billybobton's picture

yes because playing all but a handful of snaps means AROD gets the loss in MN, right?

Handsback's picture

Do we have to insert the famous Jim Mora opinion of his teams chances for the playoffs?

I'm sorry but I wouldn't risk Rodgers on the field unless this team won the next 4 and the pass protection was great!

This team is banged up I for one would enjoy them playing the role of spoiler. Beat the Viks and lose the rest and I'm a happy guy.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

Most of the teams ahead of GB have difficult schedules, except perhaps for Detroit. We probably need Detroit to lose to Baltimore of have a bad game somewhere else.

We have two winnable games even with Hundley under center. I would favor us against Carolina, MN and Detroit with a healthy and back to normal AR.

Seems quite possible to me, something like a 40% chance.

Since '61's picture

Any way you look at it our chances for making the playoffs are slim. Too many games and scenarios need to right for us plus we need to run the table.

We will have better idea of our chances if we make it to 7-6 and especially if we win inCarolina. I do not see Atlanta losing 4 of their next 5. They probably have the best talent in the NFC right now except possibly for Philly. The Saints can't be counted out because of Brees.
Seattle is capable of finishing 11-5.

I'm not sure that I would risk Rodgers until/unless we make the playoffs. Thanks, Since '61

flackcatcher's picture

Don't kid yourself. If QB1 is cleared by the Packers medical staff he plays. Just like Brady, Rodgers will have to be dragged off the field kicking and screaming at the end of his career. If he good to go, he goes. That's the kind of football player he is.

nigrivasilayesrej's picture

With old age, eyesight typically gets much worse, so I'll forgive the bad take. Minnesota, LA, & New Orleans all have more talent than Atlanta. Brees is a shell of himself. The Saints are good because they have probably the best RB duo in the league; along with a top 10 DEF, per PFF. The Rodgers situation is pretty simple. You play him if 2 things happen 1) win next 2 games 2) he is cleared by Doc McKenzie. If either of those don't happen, he stays on the sidelines.
Thanks, Since '83

Since '61's picture

First of all my eyesight is fine and I'm not that old. Secondly, I don't need or want or accept your forgiveness, it means nothing to me when you start your post by insulting me. My football eyesight would be better than yours if I was blind.

As for the talent which is what the post is about Atlanta has the best QB out of Minn, LA and NO. The Saints RBs are good but Atlanta's are as good as any in the league. Atlanta's receiving corps is excellent and none of the other teams have anyone like Julio Jones. Atlanta's defense, especially their pass rush is as good as anyone's. If Atlanta gets by their next 2 games and I'm not sure they will, but if they do, I like their chances to win the NFC title again.

As for Rodgers, I'm not sure that he should come this season even if #1 and #2 happen.

As I've said before if you can't post insulating me or the other posters here like you do with every post then don't bother. Your insults add nothing to the conversations and diminish whatever minimal amount of credibility they might had to begin with.

croatpackfan's picture

Seattle is depleted with injuries on their D, and they have very, very bad OL. No way they'll finish 11-5. They will not win all except one game. They have very tough schedule...

Since '61's picture

Croat you are correct, Seattle has a tough schedule. But they play 3 of their toughest opponents at home. They could trip up against the Jags due to the trip East. I think they will handle Dallas if Zeke is not back yet. In any case the more games they lose helps to improve the Packers chances. Let's see how the Packers do for the next 2 games and re-evaluate their chances at that time. Thanks, Since '61

Lphill's picture

LVT I took the Packers to win , after the Pittsburgh performance how can Tampa be favored at Lambeau ?

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

You Got Me??? That game Jumped right out at me. Everyone of those with AR is a Loss. I'm like a New Better with Hundley on these 1-3 Pt lines. I'm as lost as you are on this one. Tell me where the Money is going? I'll tell you who I'd bet. As I posted above, that game scares me more than any of the others mentioned.
LVT

Tarynfor12's picture

"....after the Pittsburgh performance how can Tampa be favored at Lambeau ?"

If you re-watch the game without the fan glasses of the Packers,you'll know why the Bucs are favored. You made an emotional bet on the Packers based on the hype of hope spoke of by many in the same mindset.

Whether Pitt played down or GB played up and if this did that and that did the other thing...the Packers are a team still not worthy of monetary risk. Find another game that has no emotion tied to it.

Good luck though.

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

From what I can tell GB is now a Slight Favorite. That still doesn't change things. I'll be there tonight or tomorrow to see where it's at. I have to tell you, I'm Programmed to look the other way when GB has a 1-3 Pt line, +/- unless it's the Pats or Seattle, or now maybe Philly, but that is with AR. With Hundley there is No Frame of Reference. He Beat Chicago, Lost to Baltimore, Covered & should have beat Pittsburg. I think Taryn is right. It's Best to find another game. I'm looking at Oakland -8 1/2 on New York & hope it's not a Suckers bet. Taryn, what do you think??
LVT

Tarynfor12's picture

Who's catching the passes for Oak...Crabtree and Cooper out and even their defense can make Smith look good and the ELI bench fake justification.

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

Tarynfor12, Thanks!!
LVT

AK Cheese's picture

No way.

al bundy's picture

Let's see if the pack can beat the bucks. If not, season over. Don't discount the browns either. They have talent and anything can happen with them

Lphill's picture

I never take in favor of spreads over 8 , LVT check the odds overall for those spreads , the weekly 5 game pool I'm in I am in second place out of 15 , ny friend who plays the spreads is in last place.

LAS VEGAS-TOM's picture

You are correct!! I don't like playing Favorites as a rule. I like to play spreads that don't make sense. I'm not playing this one, but it doesn't make sense. I almost never play an 8 Pt spread. Like you, when I started, I used to play a 5 team Parlay with a Bookie. I would lose almost every week. My only son, who died in a car accident at 21, one yr for my birthday bought me Wayne Root's book on Football betting. I'll tell you what I did the next week. I circled my 5 games, (20-1) on his sheet, & turned it in with my $5. I then went back to my work station & circled the exact opposite 5 games, & turned those games in with another $5. Guess what happened. I won all 5 of those games $100. The next week I did the same thing, & won again. This bookie was doing $2500 - $4,000 a week. One year, I was the only winner. I've been betting the wrong way ever since, & winning. I almost got suckered into that OAK game. That's my age showing. I may lose, but I'm xxx$ ahead this week in the Casino. I'm going to stick with WI tomorrow, & go against where I think most betters are going. I'll take WI +6 or 6 1/2 . If I lose, so what? I'll enjoy the game. I'm getting older & can't see the games as I used to. I never used statistics, or %'s. I try to go against the Grain. Good Luck with your Picks.
LVT

rdent's picture

Can GB realistically make he playoffs? The next 3 games may answer that question.

dobber's picture

There's so much that needs to happen for a team with Jekyll&Hyde QB/Defensive play that asking to look past being 1-0 this week is asking too much.

Doug Niemczynski's picture

No !!!!

Doug Niemczynski's picture

The Falcons are hot right now ..2 games up and Carolina is 3 games up....season ihas been over. Geez talk about me repeatingrimyself about firing dom capers. .you guys are just as bad.

carlos's picture

I just hope Cleveland wins this week.

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