Can Packers Keep Jordan Love Without Paying The Fifth Year Option?

There's a lot of chatter about whether or not the Packers will exercise Jordan Love's 5th year option. But they can keep him, even if they don't use the option... maybe even at a discount.

Jordan Love barely played this season, but he looked good when he did.

A lot of analysts think he's a better fit for Matt LaFleur's offense (one handsome genius even thinks it's time for the Packers to move on from Aaron Rodgers and pass the torch to Jordan Love).

Now there's renewed speculation that Aaron Rodgers could be traded.

It seems like the Packers would want to keep Love whether Rodgers is traded (since they would need a new quarterback) or Rodgers returns (since the guy turns 40 this year), but he's entering the 4th and final year of his rookie contract.

The most straightforward way for the Packers to keep Jordan Love (who is currently signed through the 2023 season) would be to exercise his 5th year option (for the 2024 season).

The 5th year option is a one-year, fully-guaranteed contract option that teams can choose to exercise on their first round draft picks as a part of the current CBA. Teams have until May 1st of this year to declare if they are exercising the 5th year option for players from the 2020 draft class (like Jordan Love).

In many cases, it's an easy decision: if they player was good, you wrap them up and if they were a bust, you let the go.

Joe Burrow? Easy yes.

Damon Arnette? Easy no.

Jordan Love? 

A lot of people say yes, but I'm not convinced.

The value of the 5th year option contract is calculated based off a number of factors (what position the player plays, how much they played, and if they made any Pro Bowls). For Jordan Love, that amount is estimated to be around $19.6M.

The first thing that jumps out is that the Packers don't have a lot of cap space in 2024. With their grim cap situation, they may push some 2023 money into 2024 through contract restructures, and they'll need a lot of cap space to sign Rashan Gary, the crown jewel of that free agent class.

But even if the Packers could squeeze that $19.6M hit under the cap, would they want to pay that much? Could they get him cheaper? If the Packers choose not to exercise the 5th year option, Love becomes an unrestricted free agent, who could sign with any team (including the Packers) for whatever contract he can come to terms on.

The Packers could just let Jordan Love become a free agent and let him test the market to see if he could actually fetch that $19.6M from another team. If not, they could potentially bring him back at a discount.

NFL contact negotiations are a slow, nuanced dances. If the Packers entered into a game of chicken, they might have the upper hand.

After all, what leverage does Jordan Love have?

Assuming Rodgers comes back and starts every game in 2023, Love will have been in the league for 4 years and only have had 1 start. He went 19 of 34 for 190 yards and a touchdown. The offense only put up 7 points and they lost. Outside of that, he's just seen mop up duty.

How much would a team value that? How much would a GM be willing to invest in that, even if they liked Love when he came out of college 4 years ago?

The estimated $19.6M contract value would make Love the 16th highest-paid quarterback in the NFL. 

Would another NFL team be willing to sign a guy with a career 0-1 record to the 16th largest quarterback contract in the league?

I'm not so sure they would.

So what happens if he goes out into free agency and the Packers say they'll match whatever another team is willing to pay? Maybe a team says "We'll pay you like the 25th highest-paid quarterback" and offers him $7.5M. The Packers could offer him $8M and save $11.6M.

Maybe teams would go higher and offer him $15M, or $16M, or even $17M. It would all be a discount if no team is willing to pay him like the 16th highest-paid quarterback in the league.

One counterpoint that pops up a lot is that Jordan Love might be so upset if the Packers don't pick up his 5th year option, that he would refuse to re-sign with them.

Really?

Do you think if some team offered him $15M and the Packers offered him $16M (saving themselves $3.6M), that he would turn it down on principle over hurt feelings?

Heck, even if he was offered the same contract amount, do you think he would want to leave the Packers (where he's spent 4 years learning the system inside-out and knows all the players and coaches) to go start over on some team that is in such disarray that they're willing to fly blind on a quarterback with 1 career start?

I don't.

Yes, he's a competitor, yes he wants to play, but rest assured his agent is reminding him that getting paid on the bench is a sweet gig and quarterbacks are playing longer than ever, meaning that another year or two on the bench won't really destroy his long-term earnings potential.

The Packers have a lot of short-term cap trouble and taking on an immediate, fully-guaranteed big hit like that might not be their best move.

Another option is just signing him to a reasonable longer-term extension.

Of course, maybe the Packers don't want to risk losing him, no matter how small the odds, and they just exercise the 5th year option

A lot could happen, but I don't think the 5th year option is a done deal - there are a lot of ways the Packers could keep Love without the 5th year option.

 

 

Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

 

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4 points
 

Comments (124)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
stockholder's picture

January 27, 2023 at 06:44 am

Gutey will pick up the option.
But like it or not. I wouldn't do it.
He is No longer a Rebuilding piece.
He's a trading piece. He's not are man.
Never was, Never will be.
And the saddest part is his name will
be mentioned with Rodgers forever.
What seems strange is why Gutey gave
up on Rodgers in the first place.
And why even draft him; if Rodgers and
MLF got on the same page from the start.
What a useless piece of the puzzle Love was.

-17 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:40 am

"And the saddest part is his name will be mentioned with Rodgers forever."

This is basically what happened with Rodgers when he first took over from Favre. And coincidentally 15 years later we are having the same conversation with Rodgers as we did with Favre.

"What seems strange is why Gutey gave up on Rodgers in the first place"

This is why a lot of people were confused why they drafted Love when they did. The timing. With Rodgers, most people understood why they drafted him. Rodgers was thought to be the first pick in the draft and fell to them. And at that time Favre was continually talking about retiring. Rodgers didn't do that.
Now we have to believe that some thought Rodgers was on the decline because he had 2 down years in a row. But then they draft Love and he rebounds and has 2 mvp seasons. Which changed everything.
If Love does nothing else he brought Rodgers back to MVP level of play.

6 points
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Since'61's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:54 am

The problem was and still is that Rodgers was not on the decline when they drafted Love. 2017 Rodgers only play in 5 games and the Packers were 4-1 when he was lost for the season. Then in 2018 Rodgers played through two injuries which he acquired in the first game of the season. Rodgers is accused of lack of leadership but he continued to play through his injuries in 2018 when he could have sat out as many games as he chose. But he didn't. Even in a season when his HC was fired. Rodgers is blamed for that as well and yet not a shred of credible evidence or a quote has ever bee produced to support that false narrative except that both Rodgers and McCarthy have denied it over the years.

Then in 2019, finally healthy again Rodgers played better than 2018 but not great as he was adjusting to the MLF offense, whatever that is, I'm still not sure. Thanks, Since '61

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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:11 am

I agree Since '61.

His numbers were down and therefore many thought he was falling apart. Very similar to this season, people only looked at the numbers. They didn't look for the reasons for the numbers.

The timing of drafting Love was really odd. Many people have said the same thing. Rodgers didn't talk about retiring until after they drafted Love. They really should have looked into drafting a QB about now. Not 3 years ago.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:03 am

Again, you could say essentially the same of Favre. In both cases a guy that they rated higher fell. In both cases they had an aging QB at the time. In both cases that QB still had something left in the tank. The biggest difference now is the cap situation.

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stockholder's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:24 am

The Blame strictly is on the shoulders of the GM!
Don't read assumptions in this.
Changes must be made.
You fire your GM who caused the Cap problem.
Why? The poor evaluation of those over-paid players.
Guty has had 5 years of mistakes and No super-bowl.
The same was obvious with a declining TT.
MM was fired. Their escape goat!
Sticking up for management is asinine.
Putting the right product on the field isn't.

-2 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:47 am

Murphy? In a heart beat. Let Gute show what he would do. I’d have fired Ball after his stint standing in for Thompson, so I will throw that in too.

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jannes bjornson's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:37 am

Kleen Haus, Gutedkunst has proved nothing, to date. They should All move on.

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tommynak's picture

January 31, 2023 at 06:51 pm

I wouldn't call 3 consecutive 13 win seasons a failure. SB's are not a given, there tough to get to, I suppose you think the 49's should clean house now because they lost NFC title game 2 years in a row.

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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:16 am

I'd rate this a solid 5 on the Bonkers Meter.

3 points
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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:47 am

I've started playing some light jazz in the background when I read these, and they start to have a little flow to them...

6 points
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Since'61's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:55 am

Cookie! Thanks, Since '61

1 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:08 pm

I guess jazz must go well with the Vogon spoken word tradition then.

1 points
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stockholder's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:26 am

Then your a Vikings clone.

-1 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:59 am

your grasp of english (and of football) is very suspect.

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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:11 pm

I can't stand the Vikings, actually, and since I'm of 100% ethnically German (and, oddly 59% Czech, genetically speaking) origin, I cannot be a clone of a viking. Nice try, though!

I will admit to having a soft spot for the Lions, though. They've been so bad for so long that they've become cute and cuddly lovable losers. I never want them to beat the Packers, though, so this season was tough in that regard.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 03:13 pm

Lots of Vikings active in those parts, but they weren’t known for their cloning skills, more cleaving.

1 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 05:38 pm

I do have a tad of Scandihoovian DNA (~2%), so some Norse or Swede got lucky maybe 1500 years ago.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:02 am

Go be a Jets fan then. Love is the Packers' future and there's nothing you can do to change that.

-4 points
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Johnblood27's picture

January 27, 2023 at 06:51 am

Given the way Love has been stapled to the bench, I think an extension is the best way to keep him.

AR is ancient and in decline. Love can see that his path to PT is getting clearer all the time.

He has had ZERO wear on his "tools" and came out early, so the waiting game really shouldn't bother him.

I would guess that something should be made by the Packers that they have invested quite a bit in getting him coached up (something that was a consensus when he came out early) and that should count when he considers leaving.

Add in some clauses that gives outs for restructure or elevates his pay scale if/when he becomes the defacto starter and sign him to a reasonable 5 year backup QB contract.

8 points
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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:07 am

"Given the way Love has been stapled to the bench, I think an extension is the best way to keep him."

Agreed. And I think that is what they'll do.

The biggest wrench in that would be a crappy 2023 that gets the entire staff fired, Gutey being put on notice (or canned), and a new coach coming in with a new offense.

5 points
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T7Steve's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:29 am

By now he'll be able to learn a new offense with ease. It's when they fire coaches year after year at the start of a career that it hinders. (Insert a long list of Sam Darnold type 1st picks here)

3 points
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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:50 am

That's what we'd hope. But I look at a Darnell Savage and I feel somewhat convinced that the Joe Barry hire set him back pretty significantly. It doesn't say much for the learning capacity of the player if that turns out to be true.

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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:07 am

I have come to believe that what Barry expects of his safeties is going to be destructive of all but generational players. There aren’t too many who have the athleticism to cover deep effectively and play pseudo corner and also play as extra ILBs. That is required if both safeties under Barry. Maybe if we had Collins and Woodson and a Time Machine. The reality is that that means his system is fundamentally flawed in reality.

3 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:23 am

You really think Murphy would fire the entire FO and Coaching staff after a crappy 2023?

You really think Murphy would completely dismantle team management for his last, gold watch year in 2024 and completely destroy his legacy?

0 points
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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:53 am

Who knows. If this team tanks hard--think 4 wins--in 2023 with minimal compounding factors (like 10 starters on IR), then I think all bets are off and I'd expect radical changes in coaching. You're right on FO, though, in that it probably wouldn't push them out. I don't think this will be a 4-win team in 2023....but just conjecture.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:09 am

If things get bad enough I think Murphy will do anything to salvage his reputation as he perceives it. I think he will fail, because that die is cast. I see very little chance that Murphy’s reputation survives what he has wrought. I think status is everything to him. Just a gut impression.

1 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:05 pm

I guess it depends on whether Murphy sees himself more as a businessman or as a team owner. If it's as a businessman, then his legacy is a positive one, and he'll make it into the Packers HOF on it. If the team fails now, I suspect you'll see him and his tenure as President described in business, not football, terms, and always in a positive light. It's always about the marketing...

I don't see him being overly bothered about the team's performance affecting his legacy, to be honest, but since neither of use can get inside his head, this is all just conjecture.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:10 pm

Yes, but my sixth sense is that his standing is critical to him. If he continues on this path I doubt it will be one he cherishes. Pure opinion, certainly, as I did clearly state.

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:11 pm

All Murphy has to do to salvage his legacy in Green Bay is to make dueling Sledding Hills! Double down Howdy!

...or a full contact tubing run with actual jumps!

Yeah, thats the ticket...

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:29 am

So, hedge and trade him for some value, if they retain Rodgers. This FO group likes to retain injured players, hang on to their whiffs, or in Love's case. waste his time.

0 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:00 am

Since I was told my posts here are stupid. Right Jurp. I won't comment on what is in the article.

So I will just say Go Pack Go!

4 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:01 am

Crap. Did I just have a stupid post? I mean I was told that all my posts are stupid so I guess that post was stupid. Shit i will do better guys.

1 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:03 am

Dammit. I just did it again. I responded to a stupid post with another stupid post. Is there anywhere I can go to get online training on how to have a non stupid post here on CheeseheadTV?

2 points
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stockholder's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:17 am

This can help- This is rebuilding. Want it?
On February 11, 1992, Green Bay Packers general manager
Ron Wolf traded the first-round pick for Brett Favre.
The Atlanta Falcons have never won a Super Bowl.
The closest they came to winning a Super Bowl was in 1998
and 2016 when they lost the Super Bowl.
The Green Bay packers won it in 1997. With Rodgers 2010.
Gutey became GM in 2018. It’s been 5 years Of rebuilding.

-1 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:13 am

Have to feel for Atlanta fans for sure.
Trading away Favre after drafting him and to only watch him become a Super Bowl winning HOF QB.
And the 2 times they got to the super bowl. they didn't win. The 2016 was the ultimate gut check. They shouldn't have lost that game, but somehow found a way to lose it.

3 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:26 am

I suspect that Favre's career would've gone nowhere had he stayed in Atlanta. Most likely, Glanville would've let him sit on the bench another year and then cut him and he would've bounced around the league as a journeyman backup. Wolf and Holmgren made Favre into a HOFer

Atlanta's 2016 SB is probably equal to our 2014 Seattle NFCCG for their fans.

7 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:18 am

I agree.

Very similar to I don't think Rodgers career would have went the same way had he been drafted to the 49ers and he had to play right away. A lot of times its about timing and the right situation.

Aligning Favre with Holmgren was by far the best situation for Favre. Helped made him the HOF he is.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:34 am

If Favre faltered, Holmgren was ready to let Brunell manage the offense.

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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:01 am

Its crazy to think that the Packers had Favre, Brunell and Kurt Warner all there.

0 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:05 am

And they had Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks a few years later.

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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:33 am

And then Rodgers. We will see if Love turns out to be anything either. But it has been crazy for sure.

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jannes bjornson's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:40 am

Wolf and Holmgren knew QBs, they restocked every year.

3 points
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Johnblood27's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:12 pm

what a stoopid post...

0 points
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Packerpasty's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:54 am

Don't be sensitive...screw the haters, your allowed to have your opinion...there a few bullies on this site, keyboard warriors...tough on line wimps face to face...to worry about it..

2 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:06 am

Honestly, I'm not sensitive about it. More having fun with it. I really don't care what people say or think. I have my opinions and more times then not I'm right with what I say. If I'm wrong I admit it.

Have to love the keyboard warriors.

2 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:29 am

I do love your sense of humor, but if your ok with being called on your downvotes, why did you whine about being downvoted? Anyway, we can disagree on Rodgers and agree on many other Packer things.

Like the majority on this board (and, apparently, on a Twitter survey FWIW), I think you're wrong about keeping Rodgers. I also think it's a moot point, as I don't see Murphy trading him.

2 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:03 am

My whole thing about keeping Rodgers is if they don't think Love is ready, then they should keep Rodgers. They are set up to make a run next year IMO (i know most here don't think they are that close but I do). And in that case they are better to keep Rodgers to make that run.

We have no idea how they truly feel about Love. And of course they are going to speak highly of him. If they feel he has reached his peak and won't be a top starting QB in the league, they will say what they can to possibly get some top draft picks for him. Maybe they feel he will be a top flight QB. We don't know what their true feelings are. I will say that I think resigning Rodgers showed how they felt about him last year. But things obviously can change. His Eagles game was very good. Was that along with his practice time showed them what they want to see? We will find out. If they do trade Rodgers, clearly they feel Love is ready. If they don't trade Rodgers, we have to start questioning how they feel about Love.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:13 am

Why keep an excessively expensive piece to achieve nothing now and less in the future and possibly a sudden retirement? May as well fail with Love or another and at least rebuild cap and the surrounding roster. Rodgers isn’t winning anything here and the gist of keeping him is crippling the future. It’s over. Move on or dig a hole on a Lions-like scale.

Unfortunately, I agree with Jurp: I don’t believe that we will move on in Rodgers anymore than on Barry unless Murphy is sidelined miraculously. That is not going to be a good thing for the franchise, Rodgers personally, or Murphy’s reputation and the careers of his fellow travelers. At some point, acquiescence becomes complicity.

We will likely fiddle to minimize losses now at great future cost and then see the result and leave those guys naked with no fig leaf this time next year. Rodgers will retire, the cap will be screwed, we will have to shed more and gamble in an untried QB while shedding talent and seriously cap deprived as wages inflate fast with new TV revenue. That means we lose more of the guys we should keep into the second half of the decade. Irrelevance.

Ironically, people will forget Rodgers last years mostly. Murphy’s reputation will be mud and LaFleur and co. Are out of the league or at lower levels. Bleak times despite so many signs on and off the field.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:44 am

The run be done.

3 points
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T7Steve's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:15 am

I thought I made a mistake once, but I was wrong.

1 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:18 am

thats funny lol.

1 points
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mrtundra's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:31 am

A lot of those bullies could be viking fans, for all we know.

4 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:49 am

Lol. true. I see that a lot of twitter.

I mean they hate GB so much that they refuse to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That is the ultimate proof that they truly hate us.

0 points
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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:54 am

Guilty as charged.

0 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:19 am

I mean the koolaid man is a dead give away.

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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:23 am

OH YEAHHHH!!!

;)

1 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:21 am

You asked why your posts are being downvoted. If they weren't stupid, why would they be consistently downvoted? You should've realized this when stockholder is one of the posters that has your back.

I'll say one think for stock - he's not afraid to post what's on his mind and doesn't appear to be upset when his posts get 15-20 downvotes. I don't care, either, so troll away.

3 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:44 am

Only time I get downvotes is when I say anything positive about Rodgers, or don't bash him because its the popular thing to do. That is what I was referring too.

Rodgers is hated by many fans right now, especially on this site. Many people hated Rodgers since he was drafted. And many have found so many things to hate him for. The latest is the whole covid thing. Since last year when it turned out he was not vaccinated it pissed off a lot of people. Because you know "he is trying to kill people by not being vaccinated". I have seen that one get mentioned a lot (not necessarily on here, but in general). That is when I have noticed a lot of people's just anger towards him.

I guess i will keep trolling as you put it.

2 points
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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:56 am

Post as the mood strikes you.

Speak your mind.

Recognize that others will do the same.

Don't look at the votes.

Be well, friend!

4 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:06 am

Agreed Dobber,

I always respect your thoughts and opinions!

The votes thing about I don't care. I just noticed the trend is all. Anything positive Rodgers on here gets you downvoted.

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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:35 am

I upvoted...but don't look. ;)

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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:21 am

Votes show you made a statement that got a reaction. There’s no guarantee that it’s favorable, but it contributed and as such your voice was heard.

2 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:48 am

That's why I like stockholder - and judging by the votes (both ways), I think many of his posts get the greatest amount of attention on the board. They're hard to read sometimes, and often... interesting or bonkers... but hey, he tries. Every day, he tries.

He sure gets more reactions than my own posts do :)

0 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:08 am

RC, its not like Rodgers makes it hard to hate him. Its like hes trying to be disliked. Were not just out here hating the guy for no apparent reason. Not my fault some people ignore all the blatant red flag behavior and crunch time no-shows.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:16 am

You can say all you like that is positive about Rodgers. It’s when you start trying to argue that Rodgers plus the roster and cap is a winning recipe and that we are close that you lose me. The two are not the same thing at all. You do seem to conflate the two though. Packers first. Any player second, no matter how good and the eyes need to be on the future not the past. Disagreement isn’t vitriol.

5 points
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T7Steve's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:23 am

I think at least a 5-year extension with incentives and a big signing bonus this year with guarantees just trough 24 would get him signed and minimize the cap hit. Regardless of what Rodgers does we at least need a good backup that knows the playbook.

After watching what has transpired with his predecessor, he'll understand it's in his best interest to help the long-term cap (at least till his third contract). If they're positive about his abilities and health going the 10-year model is wise in today's market because the value of QBs goes up exponentially every year.

0 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:33 am

Why would Love be okay with signing a cap-friendly contract when Rodgers did just the opposite? Also, IIRC, Love and Rodgers share an agent, who certainly got Rodgers that cap-busting contract.

I think in Love's opinion, his future is elsewhere - why sit on the bench until 2025 when he could sign a one-year prove-it contract elsewhere (just for argument, say with the Panthers or Bucs if Brady leaves)? Assuming he has a good year, the gravy train will start rolling the following year.

4 points
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T7Steve's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:03 am

Because he hates moving all the time. LOL

0 points
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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:16 am

I disagree in the sense that the opportunity to be lead dog will be handed to him in GB in the next 2 years: either 2023 or 2024 I think he's in the catbird seat if he hangs on. That's then his ticket to the big payday--playing well in a system he knows with players he knows well, because with no extended track record nobody is going to pay him jack.

If he goes elsewhere, he's going to likely need to compete for a job (and maybe end up the backup by default) in a system he's trying to learn with players he's also trying to learn...likely on a one-year or two-year low-money, low guarantees deal. There will be competition in GB--they'd be fools not to bring in another QB who can pick up the pieces if he fails or gets hurt--but he likely falls first in line. I agree that the big payday comes later, but I think he's more likely to get it in GB.

"Why would Love be okay with signing a cap-friendly contract "

I think it's all about guarantees and bonus structure. A deal that's cap friendly on the front end can still be very lucrative on the back-end with roster/option bonuses (or torn up and either thrown away or redone) based on his performance. He can't realistically expect much on the open market as-is.

0 points
1
1
jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:58 am

"That's then his ticket to the big payday--playing well in a system he knows with players he knows well,"

There's no guarantee of either, because with Rodgers here in 24 the cap situation only ges tons worse, which probably means that many of the players that Love knows will be gone and, if the team implodes, Murphy will probably throw MLF and friends under the bus, thus getting rid of the system Love knows.

I think it really depends on two things:

1. How does Love feel about the team?

Does he feel that his years in the league are being wasted? Does he think that Murphy and company are jerking him around? Does he like living in GB at least part of the year? How confident is he in his talent?

2. What does his agent think that Love's value is at this moment? In May 2023? At the end of the 2024 season?

The truly worst-case scenario if we don't pick up the option or get him to sign an extension is Rodgers getting hurt early in the season and missing multiple games, and then Love takes over and plays lights out. If that were to happen, we wouldn't be able to afford to keep Love because of Rodgers' dead money and we'd lose him to the highest bidder. Then we'd be looking at Sam Darnold and some rookies as our new possible QBs. Do the names David Whitehurst and Jerry Tagge ring any bells? Because we'd be right back there again. MM is truly playing with fire here.

1 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:11 am

This is an interesting article and one that I have no idea. I like #10 and his potential. I would be concerned if he didn't want to start his NFL career as a starter soon. Much has been invested in him and #12. They are connected and I am waiting for nuggets to fall to see which way the organization is going to go.

This is the part (financials) of the current NFL that I don't spend much time on. And it is as important as talent nowadays. It is an art if managed properly, but always a gamble.

Yeah, we all have opinions...I give you guys/gals credit for continually expressing yours. Moreso, if you keep getting blasted.

Okay, gotta get season two of Peaky Blinders...me likey.

2 points
3
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LambeauPlain's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:34 am

Interesting take, Bruce.

However, letting Love test the waters after this year is very risky.

I expect QB needy teams who had Love on their 2020 draft board would be VERY interested in him. And Love may be interested in them too if they have a better roster and '23 record than the Packers (which is very likely as Rodgers and Barry Ball likely return next season).

1 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:38 am

Bruce, you didn't really mention the distinct possibility that Love would not WANT to return to the Packers simply because he would know that the team has no intention of starting him until after Rodgers retires, which could be years away yet. He's a competitor and wants to compete. If he's as good as Gutekunst seems to indicate, then he could sign a one-year prove-it contract with the right team, even for less money than the Packers offer on a multi-year extension, assuming that he'll make much more money over the long term (especially if you factor local endorsement deals into the mix) as a starter with a new team than as a bored backup in Green Bay.

The man has choices, but not until 2024.

4 points
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Since'61's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:06 am

Rather than commit to Love's 5th year option wouldn't it make more sense for the Packers to offer Love a new contract now. Maybe about $10 million AAV for 3-4 years. It would show that the Packers are committed to Love and the Packers could structure it for next two seasons ('23 and '24) to be cheaper with the last 2 seasons higher salary and incentives. This would give the Packers the option to offer a new contract in 2 years if Love proves to be good or to chuck him if he flops hard. TGR can you verify if the Packers can offer Love a new contract now rather than the 5th year option?

This suggested approach is based on Rodgers retiring or being traded and protecting the Packers from committing $20 million to Love in 2024. Thanks, Since '61

1 points
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T7Steve's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:20 am

They can extend him now without using the 5th year. They could also wait and franchise tag him for 24.

1 points
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dobber's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:29 am

Rather than the 5th year and franchise tag, I like the idea of an extension that has non-guaranteed balloon payments/bonuses in 2025 and beyond that shows financial commitment and puts the team on the clock, but also gives the team an out if he flames out. They'd either need to rework the deal (which would assume mutual commitment and more guaranteed $$) or cut him (if he's not the man) at that stage.

1 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:23 am

I see your (and others') point, but what's Love's incentive to sign this kind of contract. If the team made it mostly guaranteed money, then I could see why he'd be tempted, but a four-year non-guaranteed contract? I doubt that that would be acceptable to him or his agent. Maybe two years fully guaranteed (say, one at $14M and the other at $16M), followed by two incentive-heavy years that could net him "star" money?

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:15 pm

Clearly, GB cannot increase Love's cap number for 2023.

What GB can afford is 2024 depends on what AR (and the FO) does in the next 6 weeks. AR's retirement, trade (either pre June or Post June) or if he returns has such major consequences for Love and what GB can afford. If AR plays for GB in 2023, for all intents and purposes AR can continue to play in GB until AR feels like retiring or after the 2025 season when AR's dead money finally drops enough to put the front office back in control.

GB could offer an incentive laden contract (all incentives at this point would be unlikely to be earned), or have a buy out that Love can exercise if he is good enough to command a high salary in 2025.

1 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 05:45 pm

A contract with a buyout might just work... again, that depends on his confidence in his abilities and on his agent.

0 points
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calabasa's picture

January 27, 2023 at 09:28 am

I see your logic, but that’s telling a guy who’s not worth much because we’ve been jerking him around for going on 4 years to go prove he’s not worth much, then we’ll pay him not much +$1 and expect him to be happy in GB.

GB has managed to alienate our last 2 QB’s; why not make it 3 before he even plays for us?!

5 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:47 am

A cluster, no doubt, high up on the Silage Heap. Love needed to be the man this past season, to justify the pick.
The tire-kickers are searching the barnyard for a Way out.

4 points
4
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:06 am

How exactly have they alienated Rodgers. They've bent to his every whim. They signed a washed up Randall Cobb so he'd have a wing man, they kept Crosby around so he'd have a contemporary, and they paid him more money than any player in history. Hell, they even let him pick his own quarterback coach.

So tell me, how are they alienating AR?

2 points
3
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

January 27, 2023 at 03:04 pm

Exactly, Bitter. Even drafting Love was a reaction to Rodgers and his refusal to buy-in, first with Mccarthy and then with Lafleur. When they hired Lafleur, Murphy told Rodgers not to be the problem. 10 minutes later hes on Kenny Mayne's show trashing Lafleur's offense before they even had their first practice together. Rodgers is a victim of himself.

5 points
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calabasa's picture

January 27, 2023 at 03:09 pm

By historically not giving him enough offensive weapons. Mostly under TT. Riding his talent to heart breaking postseason losses. Sure he’s also been to blame, especially lately, but the fact is 2 of our greatest franchise QB’s have left town pissed at this organization.

Nagler tried comparing that to Joe Montana and Steve Young, but I don’t remember anything approaching the level of drama when Montana went to Kansas City that we’ve seen with Favre and Rodgers. Why? Are elite QB’s drama queens? Or did we just get unlucky with their personalities? Favre is a scumbag and AR is…a complicated fella. Let’s hope the trend ends.

0 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 27, 2023 at 07:39 pm

Driver, Jones, Jordy, Tae. Yeah, no talent to help him there. All-pros at left tackle, guard, center, right tackle. Nope no talent to see here.

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:26 pm

Bart was pretty darn unhappy when Judge Parins shit-canned him too...

just sayin...

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:22 am

I’ve written for a long time that the option for an unproven QB is nonsensical and that the way to keep him is an extension. The option is an average if the top 15 QBs, completely guaranteed, hits the cap in one year and results in FA if no extension occurs (which cannot reduce pay or the cap hit in the option year). However, realistically, that window may be closing as a result of how things are being handled and what we are and have been doing to the future.

In order to pretend we were contending we screwed up a chance to see what Love has. Now we are apparently dithering about further screwing our cap to retain Rodgers and old players. Among other things, that will reduce our flexibility to structure a deal Love might take and force us to pay on hope not tested knowledge.

Yes, we can keep Love, if he agrees, but we have to be able to offer some incentive and promise of the ability to build a team around him. That means he needs to know he will play at some point and we need to stop loading the cap 3 or 4 years out for another go around this year.

We are on the cusp of really screwing ourselves for an empty echo of a dream wasted. How long before players like Gary, Jaire and Watson start wondering when we are going to stop compromising our ability to build a team around them in their prime?

There are a number of fuses burning that are being missed because so many are worrying only about what we should have achieved and trying unsuccessfully reanimate it at ever burgeoning costs and ever more scarce resources. Rodgers is now at best a very short term option. Love may never be a success, but Rodgers and this cap/roster succeeding is a fantasy that we need urgently to face up to and move on to creating an ability to regrow around Love or his replacement.

9 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:31 am

"We are on the cusp of really screwing ourselves for an empty echo of a dream wasted. "

Love the imagery - your own or are you quoting? Perhaps a more elegant turn would be "We are on the cusp of self-immolation for an empty echo of a dream wasted."

I know that you're well-read and a good writer... are you a professional writer/teacher?

1 points
2
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:45 am

As far as I know, that’s my turn of phrase. I’m not a writer, though I’ve written plenty professionally, it’s an adjunct to, not the core of, my endeavors. I am someone who works to save dysfunctional organizations from hitting the wall or other ones expand their potential. I suppose similar to Since ‘61, although I work individually or in partnership with others rather than running a corporation. Done that. Don’t feel I’ve sinned enough to need to again (maybe falsely). If I turn a pretty phrase at times, it may make up for my risible phone key typing.

1 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:02 pm

I am Colds proof-reader and copy-editor, I get all the credit, thanks!

*Cold, you get a cookie if you play along. ;)

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:16 pm

It’s funny, you somehow call to mind the whiff of a brief exclamation to aft. Much more olfactorially pleasing now your chrysalis is shed and such a radiant butterfly has emerged.

3 points
3
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pantz_bURp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 04:29 pm

LOL...thanks Cold for that!

* funny, I had to lose my pantz to be taken seriously...

* I do enjoy reading your opinions and the why behind your conclusion.

0 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:17 pm

Given your background, the Packers' BOD should hire you and give you absolute power to make organizational changes, as they're certainly a dysfunctional organization that's about to hit the wall. Maybe a package deal with Since '61 :)

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:33 pm

If they did, the first thing I’d do is ensure that my time with authority was strictly limited and confined to setting in motion a rational and transparent replacement search and a stated set of objectives, timeframe and process. I would then immediately not only restore the Harlen checks and balances but enshrine them in the governing articles along to prevent a recurrence by mere whim of President and a board he controls nominations to.

I’d also clear out the executive committee and institute term limits before looking for fresh blood among, and a reeducation if members if what it means to be a Packers board member. There would be steps to reduce the numbers of them too.

No one person is infallible and no one person should control the Packers board nominations and it’s football operations in a hands on manner except in very limited, written, circumstances and very briefly even then with a strict term of reference, such as to terminate and hire a true GM of either the football or operations sides.

This is essential in an organization that has impotent stakeholders by design. There must be a layer of scrutiny Independent from routine leadership of either side of the enterprise and it needs to be refreshed enough not to lose its independence of perception.

2 points
2
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Leatherhead's picture

January 27, 2023 at 01:57 pm

""the Packers' BOD..... certainly a dysfunctional organization""

Yeah, I'm not going to agree with that. I think the Packers organization is one of the better ones in the NFL. It's part of the reason we've been one of the better teams in the league most seasons for the past 3 decades.

Once Upon A Time, the HC worked under the GM and the GM worked under the President. Then, Murphy put the HC on the same level as the GM and the Finance Guy and that makes us a dysfunctional organization?

No. Here's what's going to happen.

The Packers are going to transition to the post-Rodgers Era. I have no doubt that in the interviews for GM and HC, the topic of this transition was addressed, and plans were presented. It was decided we'd try to maximize Rodgers....starting by keeping him healthy. He hasn't missed a game with injury since Gutekunst/LaFleur took over, so that part of The Plan worked. And he played real well, winning two MVPs. And simultaneously, we drafted a guy and spent a lot of time and money developing him, and he's going to play, and I think people will be surprised at how well he plays. We'll be an improved team next year, with a much stronger roster around the QB.

Additionally, we're going to get draft picks for Rodgers in the process.

This isn't dynsfunction; this is a group of experienced, educated, intelligent people working collaboratively to make important decisions about the team for next year and the years beyond.

-1 points
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1
Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 03:25 pm

If you think there is no glaring and fundamental structural issue with the effective GM being the person who controls the Board and all football matters in a publicly owned organization then I regret that you are simply wrong.

You can disagree with my view if Murphy as the de facto GM. It may not change my opinion, but that’s all it is. The structural changes are fact and not acceptable or defensible.

1 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 05:55 pm

Have you ever worked for a major corporation? Even regressive ones know that a heavily silo'd organization is not efficient nor acceptable.

0 points
0
0
PatrickGB's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:22 am

Test the market for QB trades. Keep key players and ride out the cap storm. Plan for the future with draft and develop and temper expectations.

-1 points
0
1
stockholder's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:31 am

I would package Love with Savage - Savings 11 mil.
And more if Love flops or Gutey gets Fired!

-5 points
2
7
Leatherhead's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:32 am

Hey, let's trade up in the first to get a blue-chip prospect at QB, and then park him on the bench, and then give him away so we don't have to pay him after we spent all that time and money developing him.

That's a plan.

8 points
8
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:34 am

Yes, it's certainly a plan. As Baldrick (from 'Blackadder') would say, it's "a cunning plan". It's not a GOOD plan, though.

For those of you who don't know the show 'Blackadder', you should watch it as it's very funny, and as you may have guess from context, Baldrick's cunning plans were anything but cunning.

3 points
3
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:18 pm

Blackadder is a true gem of a show.

0 points
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 05:56 pm

I love the Christmas show - puts the Royals in their place :)

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 27, 2023 at 02:16 pm

I'll make it a point to check it out.

Some plans are too cunning for their own good, and I'm a big fan of KISS...Keep It Simple, Stupid.

The most likely explanation:

Transitioning to the post-Rodgers Packers was discussed in the hiring interviews for GM and HC. It was decided to squeeze what we could out of him (65 starts and two MVPs) while simultaneously preparing the replacement.

That was The Plan, that IS The Plan, that will continue to be The Plan.

1 points
1
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jannes bjornson's picture

January 27, 2023 at 04:00 pm

This version of The Plan doesn't seem to emphasize winning the SB.

3 points
3
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jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 05:57 pm

I'd give you 100 thumb's up for this if I could.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

January 27, 2023 at 08:35 pm

Rough and very long day LH!

So nice to see wisdom and clear thinking....

0 points
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stockholder's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:40 am

The bigger problem is still Gutey.
He overlooked a talented player
And drafted a less impacting player…

-6 points
2
8
Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 10:54 am

No, it really is not Gute. He just drafts players and identifies FAs. He doesn’t have control of LaFleur and thus coaches and nor does he get to control contracts or Ball. That’s just public fact. I wish you could grasp it.

In fact I wish Gute was in charge of those things. I suspect we might be better off, but then at least things would be clearer and easier to fix if we were not. Your target appears to be Murphy, but I know facts don’t stress you, however often explained.

3 points
4
1
Bitternotsour's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:11 am

Time to get back to the Thompson model of football operations running through the GM. Cap and contracts should be subservient to the GM. Coach should answer to the GM.

It's patently ridiculous that all of that power runs through a sled hill manager and real estate developer.

6 points
6
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stockholder's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:11 am

I never said coaching in my statement.
You still think Amari Rodgers was
a great player. Etc.
I can make a list of draft failures for you.

1 points
2
1
jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:42 am

Even after everything a bunch of posters have told you about the Packers' org chart, you still don't get it. *sigh*

And yes, I sincerely encourage you to write an article for this site documenting all of Gutekunst's draft failures, including your reasoning behind designating each of them as a "failure". You'd have to accept. though. that It would have to be fairly heavily edited because your truly unique writing style is difficult to read. I would expect that it would be edited for style, not content, which can be somewhat challenging sometimes.

The reason I suggest that you write a separate article is because such a discussion will completely derail any post it's part of.

I hope you realize that I am NOT trying to troll you or make fun of you here. I truly think that this could be a very interesting post.

2 points
2
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pantz_bURp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:53 am

Yesss, let's call it Lock, Stock and Barrel!

Go, go, go.....

1 points
1
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:02 pm

I don’t recall being a proponent of Amari. I certainly didn’t mention him. So why you bring him up I don’t know.

Start by showing me a GM that you can’t find a list of howlers for. Pick any from the Hall of Fame to make it easier.

2 points
2
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jannes bjornson's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:57 am

The point he is making is Gutedkunst is average to mediocre with his drafting strategy and he definitely influences which free agents they overpay. The whole of group think has permeated to the level of the fans.

1 points
2
1
jurp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:14 pm

I disagree, but I'd like to see someone put together an appropriate analysis of Gutekunst vs. other GMs. And remember, Gutekunst is NOT an independent GM - Murphy has his fingers in the pie and Ball negotiates the contracts.

2 points
2
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Coldworld's picture

January 27, 2023 at 12:38 pm

The point he made is that it all starts with Gute. That was a clear statement. Even if you are right about Gute being mediocre, and I’m not sure I agree at this point, he still most certainly not either the biggest problem or the driver of all this and that’s not really a matter for debate. He’s not really even a true GM, certainly not what Thompson was, in terms of authority.

So no, that really was neither what he said nor what I rebutted, as many have before.

2 points
2
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Untylu1968's picture

January 27, 2023 at 02:12 pm

Yeah, remember when they did that years ago, when we had a wavering, fading, diva/MVP QB? Things worked out OK, and life went on, even though people went ape shit. Not saying Love is the next great, but it's time to get the process started..

0 points
2
2
Leatherhead's picture

January 27, 2023 at 02:29 pm

No. I don't get this "He" stuff. Or the "overlook" stuff

https://www.packers.com/team/front-office-roster/

I see Gutekunst as the General Manager of Player Personnel. That includes about two dozen scouts and personnel people, supported by a legion of video people.

When the Packer set up their draft board.....and they've been at work on that for a while.....it's going to be a collaborative effort. And there'll be conversations with LaFleur about what he thinks, what he'd like. There is no "He", until Gutekunst decides to take the guy at the top of the board they've all agreed on.

Overlook? These potential picks have been scrutinized with a microscope, their social media history checked, they've talked with former coaches and teammates.

1 points
1
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pantz_bURp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:25 am

Truly, nothing will surprise me anymore regarding the trading of either #10 or #12 or BOTH. Or, keeping them both for three more years. The crazier and impossible the idea sounds, the more (beautiful) legs it has to walk on.

I just want it done so I can get back to saving the world.

Peace ✌️

1 points
1
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Heyward's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:47 am

It's ludicrous to think Love would be OK spending another season or two on the bench. He's a competitor who's already watched three years of his career go by,

5 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

January 27, 2023 at 11:50 am

Exactly. At least #10 could get more involved in Coach LaF's arm flapping. Some benefits to get blood flowing in #10's throwing arm. 💪

-2 points
0
2
ricky's picture

January 27, 2023 at 03:50 pm

If the Packers choose to play games, trying to knock a few million off the option year for Love, I'd predict he'd be gone. And, yes, I believe he would walk away from a Packers deal that would pay him a couple milion dollars more than another team. Why? Because he not only would be upset at being jerked around by the Packers, after sitting on the bench, keeping his mouth shut and not making any kind of waves, while he waits his turn. So, now is his time. He knows it, and the fan base seems comfortable with it. But if the team decided to reward his patience with less money, and another year on the bench? Goodbye. How many other teams are looking at the Eagles, and asking themselves, couldn't Love do that? Because that is what I am doing. As when Rodgers replaced Favre, time for a changing of the guard. This is not the time to be too cute, and alienate the future of the franchise.

3 points
3
0