How Much is the Packers Future First Round Pick from the Saints Worth?

Each person has their own talent evaluation of Jaire Alexander and the players we could have picked. Each person also has their own opinion on whether Alexander would have lasted until pick number 27, or if there would have been someone of equal use to Green Bay at pick number 27 had GM Gutekunst simply stayed put.  I would like to focus solely on the way GM Gutekunst maneuvered around in round one while divorcing the analysis from talent evaluation. 
 
Looking at various articles, I have found two common notions expressed about the value of future draft picks.  The first notion is that the value of a future pick is one full round less.  Most will use the median pick (the 16th pick in the round).  So, if a team gets a future first round pick, its present value is the 16th pick in the second round.  That might make a good deal of sense if the future pick is in the second or later rounds since the difference in the point value on the trade charts is not that big in later rounds.  It might not make as much sense for future first round picks because the difference is the value between pick number 20 and pick number 12 pick is substantial on the trade charts, and the perceived difference in value can be very large depending on the strength and depth of any particular draft class.   
 
I am sure that in real cases, GMs take into consideration how good the team they get the future draft pick is likely to be.  That means not just looking at how that team did the year before, but also which player the team giving a future pick plans to select.  If a team trades up for Peyton Manning, that probably changes the calculus.  GMs might also consider whether the draft class for that future draft is likely to be strong, or deep.
 
Forecasting a team’s likely record in the future is at best an inexact science.  There always seem to be some surprise teams that exceed expectations and others that regress.  There is always the chance that New Orleans encounters problems this season.  It could be that those rookies who played so well for them have Randall/Rollins-like regressions in their second year.  Someone important might get hurt.  New Orlean’s schedule looks pretty tough to me on paper at least: Philly, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Atlanta x 2, Carolina x 2, and Dallas.  They play Tampa Bay twice, a team I thought underachieved last season.  
 
A second notion used by some to try to determine the present value of future draft picks is to take the point value of the median pick in the future round and divide by two.  For a future first-round pick, the point value of the 16th pick in the draft is 1000 points, so one would assign half of that, 500 points, as the present value.  500 points corresponds to pick 40 (the eighth pick in round 2).        
 
I am going to look at real trades made in the past that involved future picks and see if the second notion works.  I only went back to 2010 because looking farther back would be prior to the rookie wage restraints.  There is math, but I do it all for your convenience.  
 
2010: Denver traded for pick number 174, and sent to Detroit pick number 235 and a future 5th round pick.  22.8 - 1.9 = 20.9.  Half of a median 5th round pick is worth 14.9.  Not terribly far off but it looks like a good deal for Denver under the theory.
 
2010: Tennessee traded for pick number 89 and sent to NE a future second-round pick.  89 is worth 145 and half of the median for a second-round pick is 210.  That would be a significant premium paid by Tennessee to trade up.  The Titans selected Jared Cook.  
 
2010: Jacksonville traded for pick number 73 and sent to NE pick number 232 and a future second rounder.  225 - 1 = 224.  Half of a median second round pick is worth 210.  That is pretty close, but if favors Jacksonville slightly.  Of course, New England selected Julian Edelman with number 232.
 
2011 Cleveland traded pick number 6 for pick number 27, number 59, number 124, plus a future first and fourth.  That's 1600 minus 1038 = 562, meaning the future picks needed to be worth at least 562.  Half of a median first is 500, half of the 16th in the fourth is worth 31.  Reasonably close.  
 
2011: NE traded pick number 28 to NO for pick number 56 and a future first.  660 - 340 = 320.  Since a future first is worth 500 points, that would mean NO paid a big premium, 180 points, which is the equivalent of pick number 82, a mid-third rounder.  
 
2011: NE traded number 92 and number 125 to Oakland for number 219 and a future 2nd rounder. 179 - 4.8 = 174.2  Half of median 2nd = 210.  Trading up cost Oakland a noticeable premium.
 
2012: Washington traded for pick number 2 (RGIII), and gave number 6, number 39, a 2013 first round pick and a 2014 first round pick.  2600 - 2110 = 490.  Half of first is 500.  What is a future first-round pick worth two years later? A quarter perhaps?  The first in 2014 turned out to be pick number 22 (which was worth 380 points) and number 2 in 2014 (quarter = 650).  I would guess that no one expected Washington to stink with RGIII at QB. 
 
2014: Buffalo traded for pick number 4 and gave Cleveland pick number 9 and a future first rounder which turned out to be 19, and a future 4th rounder that turned out to be 115.  1800 - 1350 = 450.  Half of a 1st round pick and of a 4th round pick is 500 + 31.  That works, but there is a premium.  Using the points for the actual picks those future considerations turned into comes and taking half of that number equals 469.5.  That is pretty even.  
 
2015: LAC traded for pick number 15, and gave up pick number 17, number 117, and a future 5th rounder.  1050 - 1010 = 40.  Half of a median 5th rounder equals 14.9.  There is a premium involved.
 
2016: The Bills traded for pick number 41, and sent to Chicago pick number 49, number 117, and a future 4th rounder. 490 - 470 = 20.  Half of a future median 4th round pick is 32.  Some mild premium.
 
2016: Miami traded for pick number 86, and sent to MN pick number 186 and a future 3rd rounder along with a conditional future 4th rounder. 160-18=142.  Half of median 3rd and 4th is 95 + 32, or 127.  That is pretty close.  I do not know what the conditions were for the fourth rounder.
 
2016: Saint traded for pick number 120, and sent to Washington pick number 152 and a future 5th rounder.  54 - 34.8 = 19.2.  Half of a median 5th is 14.9.  That is pretty close.
 
2016: Seattle traded for pick number 147 and 243, and gave up pick number 225 and a future 4th rounder.  33.45 - 2.9 = 30.55.  Half of a 4th = 32.  That is very close to even.
 
2016: NYJ traded for pick number 158 and sent a future 4th rounder.  Pick number 158 is worth 27.8 points on the trade chart, and a half of a future fourth is worth 32.  That is pretty even.
 
2016: TN traded for pick number 8 and 176, sending to Cleveland pick numbers 15, 76, and a future 2nd rounder.  1422 - 1260 = 162. Half of median 2nd is 210.  There is a noticeable premium paid for trading up.  
 
2016: LAR traded for pick number 1, 113, and 177, sending to TN pick number 15, 43, 45, 76, and a  future 1st and 3rd rounders.  3089.6 - 2180 = 909.6.  Half of median 1st (500), plus half of a 3rd rounder (95) only equals 595.  This is an odd result that I can’t explain under any theory. It may be that Cleveland did not want Jared Goff since they had Mariotta, and this was the best deal that was offered.  
 
2016: Phill traded for pick number 2 and a future 4th, and sent to Cleveland pick number 8, number 77, number 100, a future 2017 first rounder and a future (2 years later) 2018 second rounder.. 2600 - 1705 = 895.  A future 1st has been worth 500 points under this theory.  A second rounder two years in the future might be worth a quarter?  A quarter of a median second rounder is worth 110.  500 plus 110 is 610.  Philadelphia took Carson Wentz so that is looking like a good deal for them.  
 
2017: Houston traded for pick number 12 (used to select QB Watson), and sent to Cleveland pick number 25 and a 2018 first rounder.  1200 - 720 = 480.  Half of a median first is 500. That is pretty even.  Cleveland shows up a lot in these, yet misses on quarterbacks like clockwork.
 
2017: KC traded for pick number 10 (used to select QB Mahonnes), and sent to Buffalo pick number 27, 91 and a future first rounder.  1300 - 816 = 484.  Half of a median 1st is 500.  That is pretty even under the theory.
 
2017: Chicago traded for pick number 2, and sent pick number 3, 67, 111, and a future third rounder.  2600 - 2527 = 73.  Half of median 3rd is 95.  That is pretty even, and Chicago was just getting held up anyway. 
 
The second notion (take half of the median pick in the future round) seems to hold up pretty well in the second and later rounds.  It sometimes works pretty well when applied to future first round picks, but not always.  Our future first round pick is not worth what the average NFL GM thinks it is worth: rather it is worth the most that any GM with the type of draft pick we want in the 2018 draft is able and willing to pay for it.  If Cleveland, for example, thinks they are still rebuilding and trading pick number 35 for our future first rounder is worth it because it might turn into a top ten pick, that might, or might not be, worth it. 
 
So, what do you think?
 
 
 
 
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Comments (44)

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packerfan9507's picture

February 13, 2019 at 12:51 am

Go Pack

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John Kirk's picture

April 28, 2018 at 12:30 am

Let me ask you a question... If we hadn't traded for New Orleans 1st in 2019 what would your opinion have been about their probable record for 2019? Whatever that was, if you can still do that, after the fact, is what you should be concluding now. I think a lot of Packers fans are recalibrating expectations for the Saints based on the fact we own their 1st pick and wishful thinking.

I know I thought the Saints would be more in the conversation for the SB than we would be next season, so I still conclude that. Of course, I'd love for the Saints to go 0-16 and win the tiebreaker with Cleveland so we get the 1st overall but I can't be intellectually honest and go there.

That 1st pick is likely worth the same late pick it was this season. Also, the draft pool next year has to be a factor. I'm a little surprised Brian didn't deal that 1 for a high 2 this year and a 3rd. He's obviously playing the long game which is surprising with a this season to be 35 year old QB.

Was the trade even? New Orleans jumped up from 27 to 14. That's a pretty huge jump that you don't see all that often from the back end of Round 1. I think they could've squeezed the Saints for more. If they were willing to give up next year's one, who knows how far they might have gone as they appeared to be shades of Ricky Williams desperate to get Davenport.

Hard to divorce the things you divorced but had it been reversed and we were back at 27 would I have wanted the Packers to give up their 1st the following year to go up to 14? I think most of us would've been very upset about that. Shoot, if Brian had given up our 1 next season to go up and get Ward at 4, I think there would've been a mixed reaction. I would've hated it while some would've loved it. Always going to be an eye of the beholder kind of a thing regardless of the subjective nature, in these cases, of math.

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packerfan9507's picture

February 13, 2019 at 12:52 am

Go Pack Go

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John Kirk's picture

April 28, 2018 at 02:05 am

If you listened to Brian's presser Friday night it's pretty clear why James isn't a Packer. Brian is very big on personality fits especially after the Damarious situation. He referred to guys "having the right wiring"..and then spoke of fit in another spot and loving the game. Derwin seems to be a little off. I have no doubt if he didn't come across as a bit of a wacko he's a Green Bay Packer and we don't have a 1st rounder from the Saints.

Interesting that you think the Saints were going to fall back. I think they've gotten nothing but better. I like them as much as anyone next year to represent the NFC especially if they get home field throughout. Father time is undefeated but Brady is still beating him and Brees is younger and has that dome which helps.

Packers also communicated that they don't think King is a CB1. Did the Saints go take a CB after getting their lockdown guy in Lattimore? No. Had King been anywhere near Lattimore I doubt we have one CB out of this draft so far much less two.

Something a little off topic but it's fresh on my mind after just listening to the presser Brian gave... This org has a philosophy that is hindering winning when it comes to talent acquisition. This org values versatility above all else. It will take a player who isn't as talented but is more versatile. Why? Brian said it's critical they have guys who are versatile due to INJURIES. So, we let injuries dictate taking lesser players for fear we'll be "jammed up" if it happens? This org hedges and concedes talent in the name of versatility in fear of injuries? Fear based management. Some make think that smart and I see that side but I hope you can see the side that it has been costing us better players. Net effect is we have versatile guys who aren't as good as they need to be. Bad business.

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packerfan9507's picture

February 13, 2019 at 12:52 am

Go Pack

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John Kirk's picture

April 28, 2018 at 02:41 am

I have to ask you something regarding this comment:

+++With the selection of Alexander and Jackson, the Packers are creating competition and the best guys will come out on top+++

What NFL team doesn't do exactly that same thing every single draft? I heard Brian say something very similar and just shook my head. Yeah, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER you draft creates competition unless maybe a punter, kicker or long snapper when you don't have one.

The Saints got Tre'Quan Smith to add to Michael Thomas, Ginn, Coleman and Cameron Meredith. I'll take that WR corps over ours every day of the week...and I'll take Kamara and Ingram over Jones and Williams and 88, too. Will take their OL, too. Davenport is a total wildcard. If he's close to as good as they think, look out.

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kevgk's picture

April 28, 2018 at 02:36 am

having a CB number 1 doesn't mean don't need a 2 or 3. Packers seem to be treding towards a damn good defense as their franchise goal. Rodgers will make the offense great as long as his weapons are dependable and the oline is intact. King may be the number 1 (which is far from proven) but they grabbed what they believe was BPA and have the closest you can get to a surefire replacement for Tramon (who is 35) and house who doesnt have a job with a different team. If Jackson pans out to be a primarily zone substitution or slot guy, that is more than worth a 2nd round depending on how much he is used. If he stays boundary and Alexander is a slot guy that lives up to his potential that is worth a 1st. Either way secondary has quickly become the most important group on defense and they have very talented rookies who don't have to be paid for years, where we saw the very real cost of trying to find guys in FA.

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John Kirk's picture

April 28, 2018 at 02:48 am

You're going to use a Top 45 pick on a #3 CB? I can see it in the case of having an aging trusted vet and needing to replace him. I think King is the 3rd CB. He's not very good, imo. Now, if they think King is really a 3rd CB, then it's more palatable but it proves my point as to why they took CB 1-2.

I'll say this here, again...Packers did not go BPA. Everyone needs to stop with that total nonsense. Derwin James is our pick at 14 or Edmunds if they're better personality fits. James is a wacko and Edmunds probably didn't get a single question right on the Wonderlic...that guy ain't bright. Brian made it a strong repeated point about personality and versatility dictating who they pick, so it is NOT about BPA...it's about personality and versatility and not about BPA. Listen to his presser...you'll get some great stuff especially the question from Wilde. Best I've heard in a long long time out of our fluff media.

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packerfan9507's picture

February 13, 2019 at 12:53 am

Go Pack Go

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D.D.Driver's picture

April 28, 2018 at 09:34 am

I think this is right. The Saints are typically a .500 team with a spike year here and there. I would expect next years pick to fall somewhere between 12 and 20.

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Qoojo's picture

April 28, 2018 at 11:01 am

I think using bond is a bad analogy due to bonds increasing in value. Someone talking about the trade thursday said it is worth a 2nd round pick in this draft.

I don't care about any of that. I am happy that Gute pulled a Patriots like move with a team willing to do something stupid. It's an extra swing at the bat for the packers in the first round. I could even turn into an extra 2nd round pick if they trade back again.

The only way it looks bad is if one of the 3 players mentioned turns into a hall of fame player, *and* their 2 picks wash out.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

April 28, 2018 at 12:17 am

It's important to note that first round picks come with a 5th year option. So even if the Saints win it all and it becomes pick #32 it's still worth considerably more than pick #33.

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Oppy's picture

April 28, 2018 at 12:56 am

This is an excellent point.
It's a huge factor.

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GBPDAN1's picture

April 28, 2018 at 12:38 am

Damn, You guys are off the hook with some of these analyses. Thanks for all the detail.

I look at all this as we landed 2 of the best CBs in the draft (major need) and we have an extra first rd next year. We will be stoked next year when the draft kicks off. Hope the Saints have a bad season.

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Tundraboy's picture

April 28, 2018 at 01:25 am

Now that's the spirit!

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Turophile's picture

April 28, 2018 at 03:13 pm

I won't wish a bad season on them, but I will point out Brees is 39 and not the biggest QB out there at 6'0".

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jms's picture

April 28, 2018 at 04:56 am

After watching what has transpired with this organization over the last half dozen years or so, my concern has been the emphasis placed on the “Titletown Experience” and making sure that the coffers are alive and well rather than the product on the field.
After looking at the free agency moves and the draft up to this point, it looks like the mindset is headed north.

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NickPerry's picture

April 28, 2018 at 06:38 am

The bottom line here is this is NOW Brian Gutekunst's team. It doesn't matter what Thompson did last season or the season before, those were Thompson's picks. Just because Gute worked under Thompson doesn't mean a thing, not really. Gutekunst has his OWN ideas and thoughts on how to build this team. It started in Free Agency and is now happening in the draft.

I've more than warmed up to the first round moves done by Gutekunst. I STILL would have loved to see James or Edmunds in Green Bay, but I also love Alexander and a future 1st round pick.

The Packers also landed a STUD in round two. Josh Jackson is going to be a star in this league and whether Kevin King (Teds Pick) is one of the starting CB's in 2018 or not Gutekunst NEEDED to OVERHAUL this secondary and he has....big time. Just a few weeks ago people were HOPING Pipkins and other UDFA would be able to compete and give the secondary some help. Now they need to worry about making one of the last spots on the roster because the packers have build a HELL of a secondary, at least it looks like it has the makings.

Gutekunst has also FINALLY went out and gotten a Linebacker who can cover a RB or TE. Blake Martinez is a stud inside but he's not much in coverage. Martinez is still going to be a big part of this defense, but drafting Burks is a nice pick AND it addresses a need...A coverage ILB.

Not only has Gute addressed the Packers biggest need (Secondary) and another need (coverage LB) but he's gotten the Packers an extra first round pick in the bank.

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Coldworld's picture

April 28, 2018 at 08:06 am

Exactly. This draft could not fix everything: we all knew that. I can’t blame Gutekunst for essentially cleaning out the failed coverage and mis-positioned mess TT had left him with. Regardless of how and why it was proven on the field over and over again.

I hope these picks work out, but one can’t fault the type of picks or claim these aren’t players who most agree have coverage skills or are types that fit Pettine’s scheme.

Time will tell if successful, but a rational strategy it seems to me. Looking forward to see how we use the remaining picks. We don’t need them all so will we see some high risk/reward or specific trade ups?
It will be interesting. It will also tell us something about what they really think of such players as Gilbert Byrd and the O line depth.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

April 28, 2018 at 10:46 am

With King and Jackson outside and Alexander inside, Gute has locked in an ELITE secondary.

One thing I like is how all 3 players are MADE for their positions. These aren't developmental tweeners like Randall and Rollins.

And Gute did it while landing a 1 next year for a 3 this year. THIS IS HOW BAD TEAMS ARE TURNED AROUND, MY FRIEND.

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Irish_Cheesehead's picture

April 28, 2018 at 06:47 am

Man, now my head hurts. Too much math in this article! I'm just going to root for the Saints to suck.

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Cubbygold's picture

April 28, 2018 at 07:01 am

Two comments.

One, it's too bad NO didn't take a QB. Davenport makes them better next year while drafting a replacement for Brees wouldn't. The likelihood of success next year went up when they shocked everyone with that pick. Still, I think expectations should be set for pick 24 with the potential of a +/- of 8. We can't predict the future, but i feel reasonably confident that gute and other GMs would assess the value similarly.

Second, I think the fact that gute didn't trade that pick for multiple day two picks is the most revealing action of the offseason. The message isn't clear, but a number of conclusions could be drawn.

...if he thought this roster was desperately in need of a talent upgrade, he wouldn't have been accepting future picks in trade considerations. He would have asked NO for possibly their 2&4 this year.

...he may find it valuable to give philbin and pettine a year to work with the current rosterbefore making further overhauls. Just an example, landry could have been had, but maybe pettine feels perry and clay have a real shot at resurgence under pettine. Next year he's got the ability to fill the major holes that present themselves.

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Coldworld's picture

April 28, 2018 at 08:10 am

When you say he wouldn’t have accepted future picks I think you are correct except for one very very significant thing.

It seems clear that, of the players available given the willing trade partners, he got his man. Right or wrong, if Alexander was the guy coveted, a first round for next year essentially for free would be a rediculous thing to turn down. Essentially we got a 32 pick or better for nothing. Hardly fool’s gold

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Cubbygold's picture

April 28, 2018 at 08:26 am

I partially agree with that because he also had to give up a 3rd to do so. If he had gotten alexander at the 27th pick, you're 100% right, no negative impact on this year.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

April 28, 2018 at 10:37 am

Cubby, the chances Alexander would have lasted to #27...or even #22...are somewhere between slim and none.

We wanted him, we went and got him, and we did it on the cheap (trading a 3rd). Talent-wise, he's elite. My only concern is health.

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dobber's picture

April 28, 2018 at 09:18 am

I think the take-home message, and I'm not the first to say it, is that Gute is playing the long game here. If he were looking for immediate return, the Packers would be down to one first-rounder in 2019. We're arguing about the value of the Saints' 2019 first rounder in 2018, but its best value is in 2019...and they're more likely to be able to turn that pick into players who can make a difference in 2019.

Some people are unhappy with that notion. They're going to argue that it's wasting #12s remaining years. I'll say this: I think that drafting heavy--especially in the middle rounds--and then relying on those rookies to propel you to the SB is a strategy that's not likely to pay off in 2018.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

April 28, 2018 at 10:56 am

Dobber, I couldn't agree more, and I think those who panic over Aaron's window are missing 3 big points:

1. Aaron's window is 5-7 years, not 1.

2. This roster was depleted in several areas by Ted's incompetence over the past several years, and was not going to be fixed in one offseason.

3. Going all-in this offseason would severely hamper opportunities to rebuild over 3 offseasons--opportunities like, say, New Orleans grossly overpaying for a prime target.

You're dead-on correct, Dobber. Gute is playing the long game. While some fans want him to panic and play checkers, he's calmly playing chess.

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dobber's picture

April 28, 2018 at 09:33 am

"...if he thought this roster was desperately in need of a talent upgrade, he wouldn't have been accepting future picks in trade considerations. "

It could mean that he didn't feel this year's draft pool wasn't particularly compelling, especially at positions of need.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

April 28, 2018 at 10:31 am

I think the answer is more obvious: Gute knows our roster is a mess at several positions, and can't be fixed in one draft.

When New Orleans offered to grossly overpay, Gute gave the answer any sane person would:

"YES, PLEASE!!!"

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 28, 2018 at 07:41 am

WR: Adams, Cobb, Montgomery (Davis, Yancey, Allison, Clark)
TE: Graham, Kendricks, Byrd
Although I'm hoping for WR and TE prospects, the cupboard is not bare. Late picks at WR often have a lot of talent/potential. I don't expect St Brown, Cobbs, etc. to drop to the Packers next pick, but Justin Watson might, and there are always a lot of hidden gems.

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sonomaca's picture

April 28, 2018 at 07:57 am

The offensive line situation is more of a concern, especially the right side. Only the Packers know if Spriggs is beginning to figure it out.

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Coldworld's picture

April 28, 2018 at 08:12 am

Sadly I am less than optimistic, but it seems the team may think, or be more optimistic that someone does and or that Baluga is not yet spent.

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sonomaca's picture

April 28, 2018 at 08:54 am

They must have a solid backup behind Bulaga. As to guard, not sure about McCray. If it’s McCray, Linsley, and Taylor on the inside, that doesn’t add up to a real strong interior. Probably will be dominated by the likes of Philly, LA Rams, and Minnesota, among others.

How far can you really go against those teams with your run game stuffed and your pocket collapsing early?

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4thand1's picture

April 28, 2018 at 09:11 am

When the draft starts there's no way a team can fill all it's needs. The secondary has been in shambles for years and now looks to be a position of strength. Having 2 first round picks next year is great, ammo to move way up. There is so much hype on the draft it gets as much attention as the SB these days. The NFL is licking it's chops, how much do they profit from this spectacle? The salary cap should jump 10 to 20 mil. I watched for 10 plus hours and endured a non stop barrage of commercials between picks. When I was younger I read about the picks on the sports page of he local paper.

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Oz40's picture

April 28, 2018 at 09:49 am

This is an analysis of Green Bays Draft as of this morning.

Winner: Smooth operating from new Packers GM

After trading down with the Saints, rookie Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst moved back up to No. 18 and drafted cornerback Jaire Alexander out of Louisville. In the move back up, they ended up giving the Seattle Seahawks a third-round pick, gained a seventh-round pick and swapped first-round picks. On top of the 2019 first-round pick the Packers got out of the trade with the Saints, they essentially gave up a third and gained a first to move down four spots total.

Not only was this some incredible draft manipulation by Gutekunst, and he also landed one of the best defensive players this year. Alexander is going to be a star, and he’ll fit in perfectly to the scheme new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine is implementing in Green Bay. The Packers couldn’t have done any better, and it sure looks like the team made the right move replacing Ted Thompson with Gutekunst after last season.

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Oz40's picture

April 28, 2018 at 09:51 am

Here is more fan reaction to NO not moving up with GB for a quarterback.

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/twitter_stunned_saints_gave_up_f...

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 28, 2018 at 09:54 am

Doing the research altered my position. The future first is worth more than I thought. I thought Gute could use it this year to trade for pick #50 to 55, but I think it is worth more - maybe pick 40, but that doesn't matter now.

I was always told to wait for the bond to mature. Like Wagsilla noted, this "bond" has a nice return in 2019 that could be really good and has a chance to be tremendous.

I am warming up a lot to Josh Jackson and Alexander, btw, but that is talent evaluation so I didn't put it in the article.

Did anyone notice how frequently NE figures in trades involving future draft picks?

There were more trades for late rounders involving NE that I didn't put into the article.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

April 28, 2018 at 10:38 am

I think Gute has made 3 draft day trades and won all 3.

I had completely forgotten what it was like to have a real GM. I feel like the Packers organization spent the past several years drowning, finally coming up for air and having a real GM giving CPR.

No human being can fix Ted's mess in one offseason, but I'm confident Gute can fix it in two.

Finally, a real GM. I had honestly forgotten how this feels. It feels great!

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stockholder's picture

April 28, 2018 at 11:02 am

I say two. Both in the first round. The 3rd w/Burk. No. He didn't win. Wr should have been the pick. He did get 3 players that will help. And he will get the 4th in the first round next year. Still this team is not about next year. It's about now.

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Finwiz's picture

April 28, 2018 at 11:08 am

I think people are underestimating Rodgers longevity as an elite player to some degree, so I agree with your comment.

He may be in the league for 5-6 more years, but will he be at the top of his game for that amount of time? I doubt it. I'd say we have 2-3 more years of peak 12 performance.

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Malland56's picture

April 28, 2018 at 11:14 am

Not to change the subject, but this is the only way to say what I want to say about todays draft.

I would really like to see the Packers take SHAQUEM GRIFFIN OLB from UCF. This kid is amazing. I heard about him last year so I watched him when ever UCF was on the tube.

He is the real deal. In the combine he ran an amazing 4.38 40! And he is a sackman and solid tackler even with only one had. He covers on pass defense like a glove from what they say. If the Packers are looking for a good outside pass rusher they should look no further than Shaquem. Again. He is the real deal

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Chuck Farley's picture

April 28, 2018 at 12:42 pm

If he is that good why would he be there at 133 in the 4th. They obviously passed on him three times now.

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Chuck Farley's picture

April 28, 2018 at 12:41 pm

I would bet that the Pack already have plans to dump at least one first round pick for a 3 and 4 instead. These guys are more affordable. Plus if the two corners we got are not very good, we will be in the middle of the draft next year finishing behind the lions and bears who both got better in the draft.

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Cheezdik's picture

November 06, 2018 at 02:20 pm

New Orleans is now 8-1 and just beat the best team in the league. So much for Gutendicks master plan. If he would have drafted a pass rusher first GB would have been much better off this season. This season pretty much ruined because of zero pass rush. Great planning there Gute!!!

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