Content
X

Create Account

Or log in with Facebook

X

Log in

Or log in with Facebook

Green and Bold: Final 2016 Packers Draft Predictions

By Category

Green and Bold: Final 2016 Packers Draft Predictions

Ted Thompson follows a pattern during the draft, but that doesn't mean he's predictable.

Ted Thompson follows a pattern during the draft, but that doesn't mean he's predictable.

Congratulations; you've made it through months of speculation and dozens of mock drafts and now the 2016 NFL draft is finally upon us.

And that means it's time to make some final predictions about what Ted Thompson and the Packers will do. 

To review, the Packers hold nine selections in this year's draft, including all seven of their original selections as well as two fourth-round compensatory picks. Those selections are as follows:

Round 1: 27th overall

Round 2: 55th overall

Round 3: 88th overall

Round 4: 125th overall

Round 4: 131st overall (compensatory)

Round 4: 137th overall (compensatory)

Round 5: 163rd overall

Round 6: 200th overall

Round 7: 248th overall 

This is the final year that compensatory picks are unable to be traded. Whether Thompson elects to trade any of the Packers' original selections is another story. 

It would be hard to see Thompson trading down out of the first round, as the Packers need an impact player on the front seven to take their defense to a Super Bowl contention level. 

But there are enough impact players available in the mid-rounds of the draft this year that Thompson could feasibly trade down out of the second or the third and gain more picks as a result. 

Now, about that first-round selection. Who's it going to be?

If you've studied the mock draft landscape, you've already found that aside from the occassional analyst who sees the Packers selecting inside linebacker Reggie Ragland or tight end Hunter Henry, the vast majority think the Packers will take a defensive tackle with their 27th overall pick. 

Within that group, almost all analysts see the Packers going with a defensive tackle to replace B.J. Raji, but a few have them taking a defensive end. 

That group of linemen includes players such as Clemson DE Shaq Lawson, Louisville DT Sheldon Rankins, Alabama DT A'Shawn Robinson, Alabama DT Jarran Reed, Louisiana Tech DT Vernon Butler, Baylor DT Andrew Billings, UCLA DT Kenny Clark, and Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah. 

I still maintain that if Ragland remains on the board at No. 27, the Packers should draft him even if quality defensive tackles still remain. Most draft classes produce starting-caliber defensive tackles, though this class is particularly flush with them; however, it's harder to find a standout college linebacker whose success carries over to the NFL. 

The argument is that the Packers need to take a defensive lineman to improve the run defense; however, even a defensive front consisting of Letroy Guion, Andrew Billings, and Mike Daniels is going to struggle to contain the run if there's not a stout middle linebacker holding down the second level. Some think Sam Barrington and Jake Ryan can achieve that; I don't think Ryan is there yet. There's also virtually no depth behind them. 

If, however, Ragland is off the board at No. 27, that group of linemen listed above is a dynamic group of players, and it's exciting to think that at least one of them will almost certainly be on the board for Green Bay. Don't be surprised to see Thompson walk away with Billings or Butler; the Packers need a nose tackle of the future, but they also value versatility and speed on the line. 

As for a prediction about what won't happen in Round 1, it would be surprising to see Thompson select a tight end at No. 27, even if Henry is available. Thompson hasn't drafted an offensive player in Round 1 since 2011, when he selected tackle Derek Sherrod, and he's never drafted a pass-catcher in the first round. The Packers don't have a lot of defensive holes to fill, but they are important ones that should be addressed early. 

Looking at the draft as a whole, expect Thompson to address tight end early. Jared Cook only signed a one-year deal and Green Bay needs to find an impact player at the position, something it has struggled to do for years. Stanford's Austin Hooper could be a great choice in Round 2. 

The Packers could also look at wide receiver later in the draft; BYU receiver Mitch Mathews visited with Green Bay before the draft and could be a nice target in Round 6. 

Thompson also needs to stock up on offensive linemen this year; it's highly unlikely the team will be able to re-sign Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, David Bakhtiari, and JC Tretter when all become free agents in March. Thompson tends to prefer college tackles who can move inside to guard in the NFL; with that in mind, Harvard's Cole Toner is a great fourth-round prospect. 

If there's one thing we've learned over the years, it's that Thompson doesn't often deviate from his patten and yet is still infuriatingly difficult to predict. But trust the process; more often than not, good things come of it. 

NFL Categories: 
  • Like Like
  • 2 points

Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (50) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

mrtundra's picture

There should be lots of great players, at all positions, for GB at #27. I have learned never to do TT's job for him. BPA may well rule the draft for the Packers.

Evan's picture

With possibly 4 QBs taken in the 1st round (which is idiotic), there will definitely be some impact defensive players falling to the Packers.

dobber's picture

It could create some demand for pick #27. With the depth of DL in this draft, someone trading up from late 1st or early-mid 2nd round could do the Packers a huge favor.

RCPackerFan's picture

I almost guarantee 3 for sure will go in the first. Will a team at the top of round 2 be desperate to move up in the the last part of the 1st to get a QB? Possibly.

If 4 QB's go ahead of Green Bay's pick, that means the Packers will have a better choice of players. I like it.

Evan's picture

Yea, 3 are for sure now with Lynch probably going in the teens somewhere (Saints, Bills or Jets, maybe San Fran trades back and takes him).

It'll all come down to whether the Browns want to trade back into the mid-20s or the Broncos grab Cook or Hackenberg.

RCPackerFan's picture

I can definitely see a team try to trade ahead of the Broncos for sure to take the 4th QB.

One team to keep an eye on is the Browns. They have the first pick of the next round. They could possibly trade up to take Cook (guessing).
If the Browns call the Packers for a swap, depending on who is available, I think I would probably trade down.

The TKstinator's picture

Wait! Does Ted know the draft starts tomorrow??

Evan's picture

He only just learned that free agency has been going on for like 2 months...

The TKstinator's picture

Ba-zing!
(Drop mic, walk off stage)

Nick Perry's picture

I can't wait for Thursday night and the draft to begin. I can't remember a draft I've been more excited and nervous for in a long time mainly because I feel it's going to go a long ways in determining what kind of team the Packers have in 2017 and beyond. I never do a mock but what the heck, what do you guys think?

1) Andrew Billings - DL
2) Kyle Frackell - OLB
3) Deion Jones - ILB
4A) Kyle Murphy or Willie Beavers - OL
4B) Tyler Ervin - RB
4C) Ben Braunecker or Higbee - TE
5) Joe Haeg or Cole Toner - OL
6) Matt Ioannidis - DL
7) Drew Kaser - P

WKU Pack fan posted some interesting comments about Higbee so I'm wondering if it's NOT as bad as it looked if Thompson would grab him even later than the 4th if there.

dobber's picture

I think this would address many needs, both now and upcoming. Do you think Haeg and Ioannidis will be around that long? I still firmly believe there needs to be a DB in this draft.

Nick Perry's picture

I went back and forth between CB and a Punter. That kid can PUNT and wouldn't require a higher pick like the kid from Utah but by drafting him he's a Packer for 4 years. You might be right about Haeg and Ioannidis, this is the link I used when doing this. I really like it and most times it's pretty spot on. Actually according to this site my 3rd rounder might need to be picked in the 2nd round. I'm torn on the DB because I think the Packers should try to draft 2 O-Lineman, 2 D-Linemen, and ILB and OLB for sure. Just my opinion though. No matter, I hope it's a great night for Packers fans!!

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/players.php?genpos=QB&draftyear=201...

Tarynfor12's picture

Who is and how do you select Kyler Fackrell in the 2 ND round and get thumbs up. I myself have never heard if him but I think I read where his age is not worth a being taken.....hmm....go figure. : )

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I like this list, NP. It is a little high for Fackrell - sorry Taryn, JMO. Might take Coleman at #57.

Nick Perry's picture

Coleman?

Tundraboy's picture

NP., I'd take that list!!!!

RCPackerFan's picture

Overall I really like this list. I think its pretty realistic.

Since I just saw in the ESPN Mock draft last night that Deion Jones was selected in the first round, I'm not sure he makes it till round 3. So possibly another ILB at that spot?

I would love to see them get Tyler Ervin, but Packers seem to shy away from the smaller RB's. I would love to see it, but I could see them going for Kenyan Drake, Paul Perkins, or some others that are bigger.

Nick Perry's picture

I know, that kid is screaming up boards. He played 1 year as a starter so hopefully he falls a little bit and Ted gets him. I like Ervin cux he's fast. So is Drake but Drakes had a broken leg and broken arm. Inury prone ?

DrealynWilliams's picture

Hey, do y'all plan on watching it from beginning to end, only when it gets close to the Pack (around pick #20 or so)...or what?

dobber's picture

I'll probably stream it...check in and out. The first 20+ picks are going to be "dull".

DrealynWilliams's picture

I just have to see if Myles Jack falls and if those teams that REALLY need OT help and/or QB help goes elsewhere.

Evan's picture

"The first 20+ picks are going to be "dull."

I disagree - I think we're going to be seeing a lot of trades.

dobber's picture

My point is that the waiting gets to me. I get too antsy trying to watch the whole thing with the gaps between picks. That's why I put "dull" in quotes.

RCPackerFan's picture

I am kicking my wife and kids out of the house Friday night to have a solo draft party.

croatpackfan's picture

I would like to ask you one question. All of you... Does Packers really need to draft punter?

dobber's picture

If you see a guy that you like, and you don't want to have to fight everyone else to get him into camp as an UDFA, it makes sense to throw a late pick at him, I think. Others may disagree...

croatpackfan's picture

Thanks...

RossMC's picture

Corey Linsley isn't a free agent until 2018. J.C. Tretter, however, is going to be a free agent with Bakhtiari, Sitton and Lang, so I agree we need some depth. I definitely would like Billings over anyone but Ragland would definitely step right in and fill a need. Either way I'm excited for this draft!!

Evan's picture

Wait...Bakhtiari, Sitton and Lang are going to be free agents after this season?! Really?? How is this the first I'm hearing about this??

jk

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I think it is perfectly possible that TT will trade down out of the first round, but I'd hope not too far. Perhaps down to #33. Depends on how the draft falls, and how much he likes a particular player or, more importantly, if he likes several players roughly equally. Butler might still be there at #33, for example, but if TT likes Spence, Reed, Ogbah, Austin Johnson just as much, perhaps he will trade down. Or maybe not....

dobber's picture

Just moving to #33 nets a 4th rounder (or combo of picks worth a 4th). That wouldn't be too shabby...

DrealynWilliams's picture

Depends on which pass rushers are available, if Ragland is there and which Top 2 - 3 DLs are there. I agree. The Draft is crazy. I knew I should have stayed away.

HankScorpio's picture

In 2015, the defense was not the problem. It was the passing offense, of all things. Sure, Jordy Nelson will return but will he be as good as he was? He'll be 31 soon. Abrederris and Janis look promising but that went to crap with Davante Adams so there is no guarantee. The addition of Jared Cook was a good move but FA is as much of a crapshoot as the draft. The o-line depth issue are not going to fix itself, either. On the run game side, Starks is 30 and Lacy, well, who knows if he'll be the guy he was in 2014 or 2015.

The point I'm making is that offense could use some help too. Nearly everything I see suggests the Packers will go defense heavily. While I am not opposed to adding front 7 help on defense, I see no particular reason why they should try to force that. If the draft board falls that way, I'm fine with it. But if the draft board dictates offense is the BPA early, they should not hesitate.

dobber's picture

You make good points, and I think the draft will be more balanced than some make it out to be, it's just that the balance will come later...

HankScorpio's picture

Urgency is in the eye of the beholder I guess. For the 2015 season, most of the urgency for improved play was on the offensive side of the ball. Certainly circumstance can change from year to year as guys improve, decline, leave or get hurt (or suspended). A glance at the roster today with an eye to those factors certainly does suggest that defense will be worse and offense will be better in 2016 as compared to 2015. But the NFL season is a minefield and you cannot predict any of those factors with 100% accuracy.

All I'm really saying is that if offense is the pick(s) tomorrow and/or Friday, it certainly won't be a case of neglecting urgency. Because you can make a decent case for urgency of need on offense, too.

DrealynWilliams's picture

@Hank

You're right about the 2015 season. But every season is different. Now we're going into the 2016 season with 1 true NT and our 2nd best DL is gone for the first 4 games. On top of that, he's still an unknown as far as a starter. Peppers is older and the middle of the Defense is still shaky.

I also agree that the Offense could use some help. But remember we have TT in charge. No need to worry about going Offense if the right players falls. TT will do what he feel is right for the team -- not what someone Mocked. I don't think it's likely, though.

ballark's picture

My big hope is Su'a Cravens at 27.

Evan's picture

From what I'm reading, that's a little early for him. I like him, but I'd try and move back (or up) into the early 2nd to grab him.

DrealynWilliams's picture

From what I've watched, that's a little early for him.

DrealynWilliams's picture

I just seen a Mock that has the Cards taking Deion Jones in the 1st. Oh my....

DrealynWilliams's picture

Ahh f*#k! I knew I should have posted it the second after I read it. I believe it was on BleacherReport, though. There are rumors that TT has been in talks with teams about them wanting to trade up.

EDIT: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2635352-green-bay-packers-full-2016-d...

Evan's picture

I have no doubt - but I imagine that's a type of trade that won't happen until the Packers are on the clock.

DrealynWilliams's picture

Yea, that's what the article said too. It would be premature.

marpag1's picture

Obviously I'm in the minority, but I think Ragland could drop out of the first round. I could imagine a scenario in which the Packers get their Billings/Butler at 27, and then trade up mid to upper D2 for Ragland. Not expecting the trade, but wouldn't be surprised if Ragland could be had that way.

dobber's picture

There's a big difference on using #27 to take Ragland and getting him in r2...even if they deal up for him.

RCPackerFan's picture

i definitely could see Ragland dropping out of the first round. Not unrealistic at all... How far he would drop in the 2nd round though? I'm not sure.

4thand1's picture

Ed Finkle in the 4th or 5th. Heard he can really punt too. If he doesn't hit the laces.

Llocks's picture

Can't wait any longer!!!! He we go
1st Ragland ILB
2nd Correa LB
3rd Day DL
4th Clark OT
4th Drake RB
4th Beavers OT
5th Washington DL
6th Adams TE
7th Dillon SS

DrealynWilliams's picture

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2633574-green-bay-packers-last-minute...

I don't think we could land those players like that, but maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan I'd be happiest Cheesehead

Log in to comment, upload your game day photos and more!

Not a member yet? Join free.

If you have already commented on Cheesehead TV in the past, we've created an account for you. Just verify your email, set a password and you're golden.

Or log in with Facebook

 
 
 

Quote

"A school without football is in danger of deteriorating into a medieval study hall. "
"I firmly believe that any man’s finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle – victorious."
"The Bears still suck!"