Grading the Pack - Week 16 - Packers vs. Jets

After a brief hiatus, Grading the Pack is back! I only missed three games, the firing of Mike McCarthy, and the first game under Joe Philbin, but there was one thing that I was certainly not going to miss and that was grading Jake Kumerow’s first touchdown!

After a brief hiatus, Grading the Pack is back! I only missed three games, the firing of Mike McCarthy, and the first game under Joe Philbin, but there was one thing that I was certainly not going to miss and that was grading Jake Kumerow’s first touchdown!

For those who don’t know I was out the past few weeks having my gallbladder removed. The great news is the Packers are 1-0 post surgery and I’m pretty sure they will now never lose again. It’s a new era. For those of you who have missed the grades, I have great news. In the next few days I will be posting the grades from the Cardinals, Falcons, and Bears games to catch everything up. In the link at the bottom of the article you can find the updated totals for the season that include every game except the Bears game. Again, keep an eye out for those updates coming soon!

Now, on to the Jets game. I think this game is going to grade mostly how people would have expected. The offense performed well, although the interior of the line still struggled, and the defense as a whole had a really tough day against a Jets offense that isn’t exactly known for its explosiveness. After Jaire Alexander went down with injury the Packers were basically missing their only three high end performers on the defensive side of the ball with Clark, Jaire and Daniels all out. The results were pretty much to be expected.

On offense you saw a bit of a bounce back from Aaron Rodgers, a breakout from Jamaal Williams, and a really impressive performance from Bryan Bulaga who looked like his old sel. The Jets don’t exactly possess the world’s best edge rushers but Bakhtiari and Bulaga both held up really well on the outside to protect Rodgers and give Williams running lanes.

Top 3 Offensive Players

Aaron Rodgers +2.05
Bryan Bulaga +1.65
David Bakhtiari +1.20

Top 3 Defensive Players

Tony Brown +0.50
Dean Lowry +0.05
Josh Jackson +0.05

Bottom 3 Offensive Players

Jimmy Graham -1.95
Lucas Patrick -1.05
Justin McCray -0.50

Bottom 3 Defensive Players

Josh Jones -1.75
Eddie Pleasant -1.30
Reggie Gilbert -1.00

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers +2.05

This wasn’t a vintage Aaron Rodgers performance but it was a big step in the right direction. After the first drive where we saw Rodgers miss Davante Adams on a couple throws, he settled down and really did a much better job of playing within the offense. There were still uncharacteristic plays in which he failed to diagnose a blitz on 3rd down and missed Davante Adams and Jake Kumerow on a couple of occasions, but overall it was a gritty performance by Rodgers in a game where there wasn’t much to play for.

Rodgers talked about leadership all week and he backed it up with his performance on Sunday.

Running Back / Fullback

Jamaal Williams +1.15
Dan Vitale +0.25

I’ve been pretty tough on Jamaal Williams but this was as good as he’s looked as a pure runner. Williams had a key blitz pickup on the touchdown to Kumerow but also had some of his worst blocks of the season. Had he handled his business picking up blitzes he would have been the second highest grade this week. Even still, it was a solid all-around performance from Williams who was the only true running back to play on Sunday.

Wide Receiver

Equanimeous St. Brown +0.50
Davante Adams +0.45
Jake Kumerow +0.25
Marquez Valdes-Scantling -0.10

I have little doubt that Davante Adams is the MVP of the Packers this season but he does have a bit of a tendency lately to be very lazy when run blocking and when the play isn’t designed to go his way. I would go as far to say as he takes plays off from time to time. Maybe he’s conserving energy for the plays that are designed for him and the ends ultimately justify the means, but if he were to give 100% on the plays that weren’t designed for him his grade would be even higher on a week to week basis.

Equanimeous St. Brown was really on pace for a nice game until he went out with the concussion and I think he’s solidified himself as the best rookie receiver on the team. I would expect him to get a real chance to be in the top three at receiver when camp breaks in 2019. His future looks to be heading in the right direction.

It was positive to see contributions from Kumerow and MVS as well and both gained valuable experience on Sunday. Kumerow is a unique router runner who almost looks like he goes through his routes in slow motion at times. Sometimes this forces Rodgers to look away from him, while other times it serves him well by setting up the corner. I’ll be interested to keep an eye on that going forward.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan +0.40
Lance Kendricks +0.10
Marcedes Lewis -0.20
Jimmy Graham -1.95

There have been a lot of disappointments this season but Jimmy Graham is right up there as one of the biggest. Throughout the first half of the season I was much more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. The truth is there’s never been a tight end who’s come in and immediately been on the same page with Aaron Rodgers. Jermichael Finley took a lot of time to develop that chemistry, while Jared Cook took over half the season in his year in Green Bay.

My hope was that Graham and Rodgers would be on the same page more towards the second half of the season but that’s never truly developed. Graham has been lazy in his blocking and lazy in his route running. He struggles to gain any semblance of separation, he lumbers after the catch, and is soft going up for 50/50 balls. Green Bay would be wise to move on from Graham in 2019. Yes he’s been hurt, but injuries shouldn’t affect effort.

Offensive Line

Bryan Bulaga +1.65
David Bakhtiari +1.20
Lane Taylor +0.15
Corey Linsley +0.00
Justin McCray -0.50
Lucas Patrick -1.05

It was great to see Bryan Bulaga back looking like his old self on Sunday. He wasn’t perfect and a holding call reversed the go-ahead touchdown, but overall it was a refreshing performance that showed he still has something left in the tank.

Meanwhile the guards continued to be a major sore spot for Green Bay. If Green Bay even had mediocre play form their guards, edge rushers and safeties they are probably an 11-5 team. They are so ridiculously bad at these three positions that it handicaps the rest of the team as a whole. Out of Bell, McCray and Patrick the only player I’d remotely consider bringing back would be Justin McCray as the 9th or 10th lineman on a cheap contract.

Defensive Line

Dean Lowry +0.05
James Looney +0.00
Montravius Adams -0.05
Fadol Brown -0.05
Tyler Lancaster -0.20

I want to focus on Tyler Lancaster because I know a lot of people were really impressed with his performance and PFF had him as their highest rated defender from the game. I also liked how he played on Sunday and he made more plays than any other defensive lineman. However, he was also on the ground a TON against the Jets and that’s been a big trend for him over his last month of the season.

My goal is to go back and document how many times he was on the ground, but I’d estimate without exaggeration it was at least 10 times. He is going to have to find a way to play with better balance and stay on his feet if he wants to be a consistent contributor going forward.

That said, he played a nice game and the negative grade probably doesn’t entirely do him justice.

Edge

Kyler Fackrell -0.30
Clay Matthews -0.30
Reggie Gilbert -1.00

One of the positive stories of the season has been Kyler Fackrell who notched another sack against the Jets and is now only a half sack away from double digits. Coming into training came the question would be whether or not Fackrell could beat out Kendall Donnerson for the last edge rusher spot. Instead he went on to be the Packers most consistent edge rusher throughout the entirety of the season. He wasn’t exactly dominant against the Jets but once again was at the top of the list for the edge rushers this week.

The roller coaster ride that we’ve been on with Reggie Gilbert has really been something. Most fans went from beyond upset that he couldn’t make the roster a season ago to believing that he should be a major contributor at edge this season. Now, it seems like most people are giving him a pass this season, maybe because he was simply an undrafted player. But for a player who’s played almost 50% of the defensive snaps, he’s been one of the lowest performers on the team. Green Bay needed more from Gilbert and they didn’t get it.

Linebacker

Antonio Morrison +0.05
Oren Burks -0.10
Blake Martinez -0.65

I’ve said for a while now that Blake Martinez’ success in the NFL had been largely aided by the fact he was playing behind Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels for the past two seasons. With Clark and Daniels both out this week Martinez was exposed and he really struggled to stay off blocks. His was slow to diagnose and he struggles to make any impact near or behind the line of scrimmage.

I know a lot of people really like Martinez and think he’s one of the best players on defense, but what I see on a week to week basis on tape is a player who makes a lot of tackles but not a lot of impact. He did have a sack this week in which he was unblocked through the middle, but these types of plays from Martinez are few and far between. In 44 career games he has 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble and 7 sacks. That’s one impact play every 4.5 games.

Going into 2019 I think you could make a decent platoon out of Martinez and Morrison, but overall inside linebacker is another position that Green Bay would be wise to improve upon this offseason.

Cornerback

Tony Brown +0.50
Josh Jackson +0.05
Jaire Alexander -0.20
Bashaud Breeland -0.35

After a blazing start to the season, Jaire Alexander has taken a bit of a minor step back over the past month. By no way shape or form has Alexander been bad. In fact he’s been asked to consistently man the opposing team’s best receiver one-on-one and he’s held up pretty darn well. His experience this season will be massively beneficial to him as he progresses into year two. Even the completions on Alexander, to a large extent, have Alexander contesting the play or immediately making the tackle on an intermediate gain.

Tony Brown is another player who Green Bay can win with. He missed a couple of assignments this week and isn’t always the stickiest in coverage, but he consistently competes, has blazing speed, and the willingness to come up and make huge tackles all over the field. His stop on 3rd and 1 late in the game off the edge was as impressive a tackle by a corner all season long. If he can clean up the assignment issues he has a real chance to be a long term player at corner for Green Bay.

Josh Jackson came into this game behind Alexander, Brown, and Breeland. When Alexander came out Jackson got the call, some of the same issues that have plagued him all season reared their ugly head. He missed tackles, was grabbing too often in coverage, and struggled in man-to-man.

Then in the second half Jackson played much, much better. His pass breakup on third down was a key moment in the Packers’ turnaround and the hope here is that he can carry over some of that momentum from the second half of Sunday’s game into his final game of the season.

Safety

Kentrell Brice -0.45
Tramon Williams -0.50
Eddie Pleasant -1.30
Josh Jones -1.75

After showing some signs of progress this season, Josh Jones took a huge step back this week. He struggled in all facets, including coverage, tackling, man defense, zone defense, and blitzing, you name it and Jones struggled.

Meanwhile Eddie Pleasant brings next to nothing to the table and Kentrell Brice is probably playing his last snaps as a Packer.

Tramon Williams had a great pass breakup in the end zone and mostly played ok, but he needs to do a much better job of coming up and filling in the running lanes from the secondary. There’s still a spot for Williams in this league, but he needs to be a complementary piece, rather than one of your top defensive backs.

Overall the offense was able to carry Green Bay to a victory after the defense struggled and the special teams was near abysmal. A leading performance by Aaron Rodgers was exactly what this team needed and hopefully he can use that as a spark for himself going forward.

While the defense struggled, it should really be considered a herculean effort to hold any team to under 40 points when your best players on defense are Dean Lowry, Kyler Fackrell, Blake Martinez and Tramon Williams. This defense is so beat up right now that they are completely void of talented playmakers. I thought Mike Pettine did as good a job as he could have done with the talent he was given, even against a poor Jets offense.

2018 Grades: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/grading-the-pack-2018-regular-season-totals-547

How I Grade

  • Each player starts by getting a zero or neutral grade on a play. If they performed as expected on a play, their grade stays at zero.
  • For a slightly above or below average play, the player gets graded -0.1 or +0.1. The vast majority of grades on the vast majority of plays are graded -0.1, 0, or +0.1.
  • The highest and lowest grades on an individual play are +2.0 and -2.0 respectively. These would be large, game-changing plays.
  • I won’t grade a play negatively if I cannot tell which player was at fault.
  • Most of the time it’s difficult to tell the play, so I’m not grading on the execution of the play call as an NFL coach would.
  • The goal of this exercise is to grade every snap over the course of the season to get a long-term view of which performers are performing well and which are not meeting expectations. This is very similar to what Pro Football Focus tries to achieve. Is it perfect? No. But what you are getting is a consistent grader who is watching specifically Packer games and putting multiple hours into every week to breakdown film and assign grades.
  • Grades are for offense and defense only (including two point conversions). Special teams does not factor in.

__________________________

Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. You can find him on WFRV's Green Bay Nation and every Friday on the Friday Film Room on WDUZ . Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (34)

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 28, 2018 at 08:13 am

Andy,

I hope surgery went well and I wish you a speedy recovery. I am really looking forward to reading more grading by you and am very excited to have it back. Hope your return means the Pack a day Podcast revives as well. Keep up the amazing work!

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MarkinMadison's picture

December 28, 2018 at 08:39 am

Had my gall bladder out 10 days before Thanksgiving. Haven't felt this good in years. Hope it works out the same for you.

Your observations on OG and S track with my gut. These two positions really have to be addressed in the off-season. There are a lot of safeties whose contracts are expiring. The Packers need to grab one. I'd be in favor of the Packers using a high draft pick at G on Ford from Oklahoma. He should be available at the bottom of the first or the top of the second round.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 28, 2018 at 08:39 am

"Kumerow is a unique router runner who almost looks like he goes through his routes in slow motion at times. Sometimes this forces Rodgers to look away from him, while other times it serves him well by setting up the corner. I’ll be interested to keep an eye on that going forward."

That's a really nice way of saying he's so lacking that teams are not taking him seriously.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 28, 2018 at 08:43 am

I think you need to get your glasses checked Hank you should have one green lense and one gold lense. Yours are red and it's clouding your vision. I for one enjoyed seeing Kumero score his first TD and teams that dismiss him will pay.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 28, 2018 at 08:52 am

All I did was re-state Andrew's observation in different words. If someone needs their glasses checked to your observation, it's Andrew.

I don't break down the All 22 each week so I don't pretend to know if he's right. I just know damning with faint praise when I see it.

I enjoyed Kumerow's TD every bit as much as you.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 28, 2018 at 09:19 am

Glad to hear it Hank. A lot of your posts come across as extremely negative and there's no tone on the internet. You took Andrew's comment as damning with faint praise and I took them as Kuuummmeerrrooo lol.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 28, 2018 at 09:31 am

That's interesting to read. I generally consider myself more of a "glass half full" kind of guy.

I guess there is not much to be positive about with this team. At least not enough that I find worth commenting about.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 28, 2018 at 09:50 am

I consider you a cynic the glass isn't half full or half empty. You wish there was more in the glass but see it for what it is. 2018 was a rough year which is probably why I thought you were coming across as negative when you didn't feel that way. There were a few good flashes drowning in a sea of shooting themselves in the foot. For what it's worth I considering myself a cynical glass half full kind of guy. I hate how on CHTV it feels like you're called a homer or a hater can't we just be fans?

Nice part of CHTV is Andy can comment and tell us more clearly what he meant by his observations of Kumero. Of he chooses to.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 28, 2018 at 06:18 pm

I construed it as "understatement" rather than "faint praise"

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 28, 2018 at 10:24 am

If Kumerow can get off the line of scrimmage... His route running has promise pic.twitter.com/zQcRgaYkKw

— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) December 24, 2018

I think this was the more backhanded compliment

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flackcatcher's picture

December 28, 2018 at 01:54 pm

The difference in preseason game speed and regular season game speed is quite striking. Indeed Kumerow was a step slow for most of the game, not having enough experience in game to make the necessary adjustments. His only real question is can he stay healthy and ready to play. That, is an open question.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 28, 2018 at 05:50 pm

He'll be ok as long as he doesn't somersault into the end zone!

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Guam's picture

December 28, 2018 at 08:57 am

I also wish you a speedy recovery and no complications from your surgery. You add great insight into the Packers with your grading column and I appreciate your hard work and diligence.

You consistently grade Kendricks as a positive contributor and confirm what I see during games - he is a solid backup tight end who is playing to his contract. Kendricks is versatile (plays TE, H-back and fullback), a decent blocker and catches the ball. Not sure why others call him a JAG and are so eager to dump him. Given his play and contract he has certainly provided better value than our other two veteran TE's.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 28, 2018 at 10:36 am

Solid back-up who isn't asked to do too much damage downfield and who has shaky hands sounds like a JAG to me. While he has some versatility, he is not good as an H-back or as a fullback. Tons of comments from the film guys suggesting that if GB is going to use Kendricks in those roles it is time to just get a fullback, which they tried to do.

I'd say Kendricks is a JAG plus. I am okay with bringing Kendricks back, especially given the sorry state of the talent we have on the roster.

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Guam's picture

December 28, 2018 at 11:17 am

Not sure I agree with the shaky hands part - he has been pretty reliable the second half of the season. I guess it depends on your definition of a JAG. To me a JAG would be any of our backup O-linemen who all too often fail to protect QB1. Kendricks is not a difference maker, but he at least handles his assignments.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 28, 2018 at 11:33 am

FWIW, Kendricks is 2nd on the team in catch percentage @ 79.2%, trailing only J'Mon Moore, whose 1 catch means he's hauled in everything thrown his way.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 28, 2018 at 07:16 pm

I can think of two drops by Kendricks. He has 24 targets which yields an 8.34% drop rate (unless he has more drops: one of the services lists Kendricks with 2 drops, GM, Cobb and Davante with 3, fwiw).

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Coldworld's picture

December 29, 2018 at 06:23 am

Interesting. Kendricks had an early drop that comes to mind and attracted scorn at all he time. I have noticed that he has done better, but not to the extent suggested. Just shows that memory and perception are not always reliable guideposts.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 29, 2018 at 09:20 am

I think that Graham-Kendricks-Lewis-Tonyan is as good of a situation at TE as we've had in a very long time.

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arthurl's picture

December 28, 2018 at 09:04 am

Always a good read and thanks for putting this together weekly. Point that stood out was poor play at three positions that holds team back. Hopefully this gets corrected next season with drafting and FAs. I would also think TE is another sore spot. GM got his work cut out with player personnel and new HC selection

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Ferrari Driver's picture

December 28, 2018 at 09:20 am

You make interesting contributions to the site and I make it a point to read your articles. Thumbs up!

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AndyHerman's picture

December 28, 2018 at 09:25 am

Thanks for the kind words!

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Skip greenBayless's picture

December 28, 2018 at 10:17 am

Hope you continue to get better after the surgery. You do fine work here Andy.

Dash

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 28, 2018 at 10:31 am

Always a great read and provides plenty to consider. I am still having trouble reconciling 12 QB hits with the offensive line grades, though perhaps some were schemed and some were on AR.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 28, 2018 at 10:49 am

Andy you say if the Packers even had mediocre play from the EDGE, guards, and safeties. I feel like this is an exaggeration but still accurate. Taylor had a bad year at LG and hopefully returns to form in 2019. We have next to no depth at center. RG was a revolving door. At RT Bulaga has been good but still struggles with availability. Tackle depth is also lacking as we wait for Spriggs to take the next step.

For EDGE I feel like CM3 and Fackrel have been mediocre. We need a game changer at EDGE not just mediocre as you put it. Imagine our defense had we landed Mack. We need Perry to play up to his contract.

For safety I feel like Williams is mediocre. Bruce has flashed but is inconsistent and hasn't even been mediocre. Does a game changer at safety make the difference they once did? 3 INT is considered "good" from their position. I'd rather the Packers continue to draft good CBs and transition them to safety if they can't cut it like with Randal.

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Coldworld's picture

December 29, 2018 at 06:33 am

One could make a strong case that they should have moved Randal to safety.

Williams was dinged here for not coming up and tackling. I think in fact he did well in coverage. The problem is though who is our second FS? I don’t see a single coverage type in the roster at safety. Sometimes it would be good to have 2 on the field let alone on the roster.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 29, 2018 at 08:00 am

We have 0 depth at safety and not much talent Coldworld. The 2nd FS is Josh Jones? Talk about a disappointment. The guy has all world athletic ability and 0 football IQ. I really hoped Pettine could get him going. We definately need more help at safety my only point way Williams has provided mediocre talent with his great coverage ability. Brice has shown he can be a thumper but hasn't been anywhere near consistent or healthy unfortunately. Another guy with amazing athletic traits.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 29, 2018 at 09:14 am

Coldworld….as I rewatched the games last year, I noticed numerous examples of Randall "lacking courage" in run support. It took various forms but my favorite was where he'd "slip" so he was "unable" to make contact with a runner charging upfield.

I have no doubt that when Petttine came in and watched the tape, he noticed the same thing . A guy like that at corner is bad enough, but at safety it'd be a recipe for one big play after another.

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Packers0808's picture

December 28, 2018 at 11:55 am

I hope the Packers cut bait and let Graham go, the guy runs in a bucket of hardening cement!

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Leatherhead's picture

December 28, 2018 at 06:32 pm

If we cut him, ALL of his prorated signing bonus will accelerate to 2019 for cap purposes and that'll be $7.3 million fewer dollars we have in free agency. We'd save $5 million in additional salary and bonuses, but we'd need another TE.

Here's an idea: Instead of releasing/cutting guys who are above average players at their position, maybe we should be thinking about how we can add to them instead?

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flackcatcher's picture

December 28, 2018 at 07:03 pm

Graham never quite got integrated into the offense this year. Personally, I agree with the commenters about the time it takes to learn a McCarthy-Rodgers offensive scheme. With the way the NFL is in OTA and short training camps, that has to change. Also, TE has become more a safety valve than a primary receiver in this system. That has to change, if the Packers are going to get value out of the position. It all depends on who is the next HC, with the way the NFL is now it is next to impossible to install a new system in a season. I think coldworld may be right, that Gute may be looking to install Philbin as the next HC, giving how hard it is to install a new offensive system in a short amount of time.

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Mike Wendlandt's picture

December 28, 2018 at 03:10 pm

Biggest question I have Andy is how you grade a guy like Graham beyond just the plays where the ball goes his way. For example, on one of the big plays to the right side, he drew three defenders to his quick out, allowing the intermediate route (either EQ or Kumerow) to get wide open for a big gain.

Graham has had his warts this year, but he is still a guy that teams try to neutralize in their gameplanning. I personally think he should be back and get an offseason to work with a healthy Rodgers. Their lack of practice time showed this year.

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flackcatcher's picture

December 28, 2018 at 03:40 pm

Andy, best wishes on your recovery. Overall, this has been strange year for the team. The offense never came together, despite the talent on the field. How deep were the problems between Rodgers and McCarthy, I don't know, but it had to effect the execution of the scheme. On the defensive side, watching Pettine work his magic with nothing but smoke and mirrors at the end was impressive to say the least. What is madding is if this team could stay healthy this year, they would be in the playoff hunt, even with the disconnect between Rodgers and McCarthy. The Jets game was the first time we have seen the Packers successfully execute their offensive scheme all season long. That is as a damning indictment of Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers as there ever is. As always, an excellent wrap up on a game in which fitted the Packers season to a tee.

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4zone's picture

December 30, 2018 at 08:50 am

If we don't bring Williams back we have nothing at Safety. We just have so many needs this off season may very well define Gute's career. I'm thinking he's got the chops for it, will be interesting theatre this off season.

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