Game Preview: Packers at Buccaneers, Week 16

What to watch when Green Bay travels to Tampa Bay with a chance to clinch a spot in the NFL playoffs.

The Green Bay Packers (10-4) travel to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) on Dec. 21 at noon CT in a game televised on Fox.

 

The Big Picture: What's at Stake?

After the Philadelphia Eagles lost in Washington on Saturday, all the Packers need to do is win to clinch a spot in the playoffs. Anything more, however, will have to wait, such as winning the division, getting a bye in the playoffs or earning home-field advantage.

The Buccaneers might be mired in nightmare season, getting just two wins in their first season under new head coach Lovie Smith—a former Packers nemesis from his days with the division rival Chicago Bears—but the Packers can't afford to take any opponent lightly at this stage in the season.

If the Packers want to win, they'll have to exorcise the demons that have haunted them in Raymond James Stadium, losing their last two games played in Tampa Bay in 2008 and 2009. The Buccaneers were 0-8 before winning the 2009 match-up. It's been more than a decade since Green Bay has last won in Tampa, back in 2003.

 

What to Watch When the Packers Have the Ball

A) Aaron Rodgers Bouncing Back: The Packers are coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, and to most people's surprise, Rodgers was a big part of the reason why. He completed merely 17 of 42 passes for 185 yards and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 34.3.

Rodgers wasn't on the same page as his receivers on many of their backshoulder sideline routes, and his 25 incompeltions were a career high. Perhaps it shouldn't be a surprise that Rodgers had his lowest-graded game since 2008 from ProFootballFocus.com.

Despite the poor performance, Rodgers still finished as the NFL's leading vote-getter for the Pro Bowl, announced this week, and his odds of winning the NFL's MVP Award barely took a hit, still listed as the favorite by Bovada.lv. If Rodgers has another game like last week, however, those odds may dip.

B) Receivers Getting Open vs. Lovie Smith Coached Defense: Rodgers wasn't alone in having a bad game last week. His receivers definitely did him no favors, dropping six passes, including a potential 94-yard touchdown pass by Jordy Nelson.

Receivers not named Nelson or Randall Cobb, however, were the biggest problem. The only other wideouts or tight ends to catch a pass against the Bills were Davante Adams and Andrew Quarless, who contributed one catch each for less than 10 yards.

Opponents appear to be figuring out how to defend the Packers with a Cover 2 look, commiting an extra safety to the deep half of the field. Smith has plenty of experience facing the Packers from his days with the Bears and should have a good gameplan in place.

C) Offensive Line Depth: Bryan Bulaga is listed as "questionable" on the team's injury report. Plan B if Bulaga can't play on Sunday is a potentially scary one with J.C. Tretter likely to replace the Packers' usual starting right tackle on the offensive line.

The Packers got a glimpse of what Tretter could do this past Sunday when he entered the game in place of Bulaga and proceeded to allow the strip-sack of quarterback Aaron Rodgers to defensive lineman Mario Williams, resulting in a safety.

Josh Sitton also missed a practice this week for the first time since Week 12, and while he's "probable" for Sunday's game, it's not looking like the Packers are going to put him back on kick protection unit until he gets healthier.

 

What to Watch When the Buccaneers Have the Ball

A) Peppers Pass Rush: Peppers was honored by his teammates when he was voted as one of the Packers' postseason captains this week, a bold move by head coach Mike McCarthy before the team had even qualified for the playoffs.

Now Peppers must step up and provide a better pass rush than he has the past two weeks when he's been shut out in the sack department.

Critics are quick to point out that this is the same old Peppers that's gone absent for stretches at other times over the course of his career, but if there's ever a time for Peppers to break out of a slump, it's now when the cards are down and the Packers are in position to accomplish all their goals.

B) Meeting a Familiar Face: If there's anyone in Tampa Bay that has inside knowledge of the Packers and knows the Green Bay defenders from going against them in practice for five years, it's Evan Dietrich-Smith, who signed with the Buccaneers in free agency this past offseason.

"Obviously I have some tips for us on playing the defense," said Dietrich-Smith. "I've been able to kind of give the guys the skinny on the guys we're about to go against."

The person lining up across from Dietrich-Smith the most, however, might be a newcomer to Green Bay and someone he doesn't know quite as well: nose tackle Letroy Guion, who signed with the Packers as a free agent this past spring.

C) Getting by in the Secondary Without House: Cornerback Davon House has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers for a second consecutive week after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 14 when he and Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones got tangled up in the end zone.

With no House to turn to, Sam Shields had a better game last week against and was part of the reason the Packers defense didn't allow the Buffalo Bills to score a touchdown on offense. 

The rest of Shields' teammates in the secondary stepped up their play as well, particularly Tramon Williams, who came up with an interception of Kyle Orton. There's still work to do, however, particularly in the tackling department, where Ha Ha Clinton-Dix needs to show more consistency.

 

What to Watch on Special Teams

Randall Cobb's Role: When Cobb was elected as a Packers postseason captain this week representing special teams, it indicated that he's due for a bigger role in that phase of the game.

The Packers rank 31st out of 32 teams in kick return average and DuJuan Harris ranks dead last among qualified individual returners, indicating there's plenty of room for improvement. Cobb is a proven commodity and could provide the missing spark the Packers need.

It remains to be seen if he'll continue to share duties with Micah Hyde on punt returns or not. Hyde, after all, has done a solid job by averaging 14.9 yards per return this season.

 

Brian Carriveau is the author of the book "It's Just a Game: Big League Drama in Small Town America," and editor at Cheesehead TV and its "Pro Football Draft Preview." To contact Brian, email [email protected].

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Comments (16)

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Allan Murphy's picture

December 20, 2014 at 11:16 pm

Just win bb

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 21, 2014 at 12:38 am

Hyde's 14.9 yard punt return average would lead the league if he had enough attempts (11 attempts this year). 14.9 yd/return happens to be exactly Devin Hester's average this year. As a note, Cobb's career punt return average is 10 yard/return.

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Bohj's picture

December 21, 2014 at 12:57 am

- Need a big week for the confidence of our offense. Hope they play cover two all game and we break it with running and underneaths so that our next few opponents get scared of the tape.
- Harris last in kickoff......wow......take a knee in the end zone from here on out. Our identity on special teams is........established and should be conservative. I know some of you are clamouring for janis. But he could fumble with zero game experience. And that would be deadly for the packers......as well as his own career.

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barutanseijin's picture

December 21, 2014 at 07:26 am

Guys who don't get on the field tend not to stick around. I'd think kick returning would be a chance for Janis.

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4thand1's picture

December 21, 2014 at 09:25 am

If the Packers have a comfortable lead late in the game, why not let Janis return a kick if he's on the active roster?

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TKWorldWide's picture

December 21, 2014 at 08:15 am

EDS with the dreaded "enemy intel". Now I'm shaking in my boots.
Ok, that's a lie:
I'm actually wearing pointy toe elf shoes.
(I also use them at Halloween when I get my Iron Sheik look on.)

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TKWorldWide's picture

December 21, 2014 at 08:19 am

What I'm REALLY trying to say is I have a hard time believing that there is a whole lotta value in enemy intel from former players, what with the extremely detailed game video that the coaches break down to the smallest detail.

But hell, if the fact that EDS knows that Mike Daniels hates strawberry ice cream comes back to bite GB in the ass, I'll retract both of these posts.

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mrtundra's picture

December 21, 2014 at 08:54 am

I want to see the Packers' defense to wrap up on their tackles instead of bouncing off the guy with the ball, letting him get a big gain.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

December 21, 2014 at 09:19 am

Did you fall prey to the "refreshing the comment submitted page bug"?

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mrtundra's picture

December 21, 2014 at 08:54 am

I want to see the Packers' defense to wrap up on their tackles instead of bouncing off the guy with the ball, letting him get a big gain.

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Iain's picture

December 21, 2014 at 10:36 am

That would certainly make a change

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Mario Willis's picture

December 21, 2014 at 10:43 am

Agreed.
There were numerous times we had Buffalo stopped in the back field and they extend the play. Though (and I would have to check the stats) we have done well limiting YAC this year.

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mrtundra's picture

December 21, 2014 at 08:54 am

I want to see the Packers' defense to wrap up on their tackles instead of bouncing off the guy with the ball, letting him get a big gain.

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mrtundra's picture

December 21, 2014 at 08:54 am

I want to see the Packers' defense to wrap up on their tackles instead of bouncing off the guy with the ball, letting him get a big gain.

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mrtundra's picture

December 21, 2014 at 08:54 am

I want to see the Packers' defense to wrap up on their tackles instead of bouncing off the guy with the ball, letting him get a big gain.

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Mario Willis's picture

December 21, 2014 at 10:41 am

This will be the Buccaneers SUPERBOWL so we should be careful this is a confidence game and the only way to mitigate some disaster against the LIONS next week.

The Lions have a hapless Bears team this week so we need this win to stay in the division race as well. We have won the NFC North the last 3 years no sense in stopping now. #GoPackGo

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