Final Four Teams Debunk QB Formula For Packers

There's a theory that says a quarterback on a rookie deal is the "formula" for winning a Super Bowl. With Burrow, Hurts, and Purdy all making it to the championship round this year, that theory looks correct. Many Packers fans are up in arms that the Packers aren't using the sure-fire guaranteed Super Bowl formula... but there's more to the story.

Step 1: Get a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal

Step 2: Use the money you saved to upgrade the talent around him

Step 3: Win the Super Bowl

So easy, right?

The theory that there's a magic formula to winning the Super Bowl with a quarterback on a rookie deal seems logical at first glance. The Packers should be using this theory, right!?

Well, let's look a little deeper. This theory gained popularity when the Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 2013 with Russell Wilson, who was on a rookie deal, which allowed the team to spend big on the Legion of Boom defense.

However, a rookie deal quarterback has only won it all one time since then. It didn't happen much before, either. Throughout history, even in the salary cap era, it hasn't happened much at all.

The reason is pretty simple: despite the math (which doesn't win football games), most quarterbacks who are that early in their career aren't developed enough to lead a team to the Super Bowl, even if it's a team that was able to spend big at other positions.

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, heck, even Nick Foles were all established veterans when they led their teams to Super Bowls over the last decade and a half.

This year looks different, though! Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, and Joe Burrow are all on rookie deals and made it to the championship round! Doesn't this prove that the formula for winning is to get a quarterback on a rookie deal and then use that money to spend on other positions?

No.

Let's look at each team (ignoring the Chiefs, who have the most expensive player in NFL history at quarterback).

First, we have the 49ers, where Brock Purdy led an improbable run with a 49ers team that was absolutely stacked on offense and defense. Purdy was the last player drafted last year, giving him an incredibly small salary. Did that allow them to spend in other places and field a great team?

No.

Jimmy Garoppolo is the 2nd highest cap hit on the team. Trey Lance is the 9th largest cap hit on the team. The 49ers spent big at quarterback when they built their team. The fact that a cheap rookie happened to be starting has nothing to do with how the 49ers spent to build their roster.

What about the Bengals? They have Joe Burrow on a rookie deal and they don't have another high-priced quarterback on the team. Do they prove that the formula works?

No.

Joe Burrow wasn't the last pick in the draft like Brock Purdy. He was the number 1 overall pick and still has a large contract. He was 6th largest cap hit on the team. That ain't peanuts.

Ok, what about Jalen Hurts? He wasn't even a 1st round pick, and the Eagles don't have another high-priced quarterback on the roster. Surely, he proves that when you have a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal that you can spend a bunch of money elsewhere to build a great team, right?

No.

Sure, they saved money at quarterback, but do you know what the Eagles spent all their extra money on?

Nothing.

Literally nothing.

With all the savings they have from not having to pay a quarterback a lot of money, they have $64.5M in dead cap space. That's 29% of their salary cap this year that is a total waste and not contributing to the team in any way. That means that the Eagles, who have a cheap quarterback on a rookie deal, are not actually using the savings to make the team any better.

So, we may have 3 of the final 4 teams with starting quarterbacks on rookie deals, but that's correlation, not causation.

What does this mean for the Packers?

It means there's no single path to winning. There's actually a lot of ways to win. However, there is no formula to winning.

The Packers could bring back Aaron Rodgers and find themselves in a situation like the Chiefs. Or, they could take the cap hit from letting him go and move ahead with Jordan Love, giving them a situation like the Eagles.

The Super Bowl representatives showed that both ways can work. It's about team performance more than quarterback contract. 

This offseason, the Packers have a tough choice to make at quarterback. A lot of factors will figure into the final decision.

But there is clear cut "right" answer and there is no formula to winning.

 

 

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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

__________________________

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5 points
 

Comments (149)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 06:42 am

The formula was successful twice. SEA with Wilson & KC with Mahommes. Brady won 7 Super Bowls, his first on his rookie deal his 2nd season, 2002, in a system of development.

All 3 QBs got lucky. All 3 benefited greatly from rules changes.

I’ll take Joe Montana or Bart Starr over any of those three QBs, anytime. Think Brady of the “Tuck Rule,” would have survived the poundings of NFL Play from yesteryear to win 7 Lombardi’s??? Not a chance.

Troy Aikman was on his rookie deal when he won the Lombardi Trophy in 1992. The beneficiary of the blockbuster trade with Minnesota - one that hasn’t been rivaled since, but could have been had it not been for meddling by our own FO.

I think Gutekunst wanted to consummate that trade 3 years ago.

The Packers system worked fine until a giant money grubbing power hungry narcissist named, Mark Murphy, had to interject himself into the decision making when Jordan Love really ought to have taken over.

Imagine. It could be the Packers facing KC in this Super Bowl…

Murphy is the reason we didn’t trade AR years ago, when his value was highest. New HC with a new system, and a new QB all set, 2 years into the system, ready to leave the development nest to take over as QB1, and his subsequent lumps in learning how to be one. The Packers couldn’t have been more prime to go through that transition, but, no.

Maxims are called as such for a reason, because they always ring true. Best to get rid of a good player a year early, rather than a year late.

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Oppy's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:56 am

First, let me say I agree with the year too early vs. a year too late.

But maxims don't always ring true. A lot of the time, they are nothing more than convenient, lazy crutches for those who can't think critically for themselves. And often times, they're just plain wrong.

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Coldworld's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:29 am

The greatest value in a maxim, if it’s one that’s has truly stood the test of time, is not that it means going against it is wrong, but that doing so calls for very clear headed consideration of one’s basis for believing it doesn’t apply in the circumstances at hand.

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BruceIrons's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:27 am

Don't forget than when Brady was on his rookie deal, the Patriots were still paying big buck to Drew Bledsoe.

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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:28 am

That's the point, Bruce. They were different times, but the same logic as the Packers course, which is what, Bruce?

There was one guy that took over for Favre, whom Ron Wolf happened to have traded for, Aaron Rodgers. But, it didn't happen on AR's rookie deal, and the list of QBs RW drafted to take over at a moment's notice was far better than what Ted Thompson was able to pull off, aside from his rainbow-farting-unicorn-like AR pick. Brunell. Detmer. Hasselbeck. Brooks. Hell, even UDFA Kurt Warner went on to win 2 MVPs and a Super Bowl.

Bledsoe was a very highly thought of QB1 at the time. I'm not forgetting anything here. Aaron Rodgers literally fell into Ted Thompson's lap, and wound up being the first draft pick of his life as a NFL GM. His other QB picks? Ingle Martin. Matt Flynn. Brian Brohm. BJ Coleman. Brett Huntley.

The Chiefs had Alex Smith when they traded up 17 spots in the 2017 draft to pick Mahomes at #10 overall. What did the Chiefs do? They traded Alex Smith the following season. What did the Packers do? After trading up for JL?

They got shrinkage.

There's more to it than just draft a QB and get to the SB during his rookie deal . The "winning formula," is a myth. Either you learn how to take good QB talent, and mould them into legit QB1s, or you don't. Much of it has to do with the systems established by a team's FO. Do you have the right HC? Do you have the right players to allow your QB asset to flourish in development... yada. yada.

5 points
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HarryHodag's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:14 am

Sorry, don't buy your argument. You make it look like His Highness(a.k.a. Aaron Rodgers) was totally innocent in all this and Murphy was the boogie man. Rodgers drove the bus into the ditch. Murphy must keep the public at bay and five years ago who wanted to unload Rodgers?

I did, but that means less than a bag of peanuts.

You will see things level out in Green Bay once the Packers unload the overpriced albatross to some other unsuspecting team.

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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:23 am

I was with ya then and Im with ya now.

Just let him GO!

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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:52 am

Yeah. Funny. Groundhog Day was yesterday... and... every fucking day since Thursday, April 29th, 2021.

We've been on this. Make it stop. Please. For the love of god.

Make it stop!

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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:49 am

Totally agree with you, Harry!

Man, I'll never forget that 2021 Draft Day 1, where Rodgers wet his panties over the previous year's Jordan Love selection. This garbage just couldn't get more tired.

The Packers should have traded AR on the spot. Look at the damage he's done to this team since, all for his own personal gain. MVPs.

Rodgers was like, "There's no 'we' in team. Only 'me.'"

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:29 am

Yeah, Rodgers drove the bus to three years in a row of games he started being 13-3, 13-3, 13-3 and back-to-back MVPs. No GM In the league with Rodgers in the building would have let go of him at that point. They did what anyone running the team would have done, they tried to keep the talent level around him and go for a run for a Title.

I don't see how fans can forget the amazing seasons of football we've watched with #12 at QB. The hate towards Rodgers is more than sad to me, and indicates people take football too seriously and people have unrealistic expectations, and people are friggin spoiled by having a Hall of Fame starter at the helm for the last 30 years. NY, IND, NO, and NE are all STILL struggling after losing their super bowl winning QBs. GB fans better get ready for that. Yeah, Love has promise, blah, blah, blah. How often does promise pay out? The number of first round flame-outs at QB is telling.

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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:41 pm

You just knew Aaron Rodgers was going to be special prior to his starting debut September 8th, 2008? Or, WCPB, you had no clue what he would bring to us as a QB1, like most fans here? I'll guarantee you had hope for the best, as we all did. We went 6-10 that season.

I mean, c'mon. Did I forget the "amazing seasons?" Well, depends on one's perspective. "Amazing," for who?

I've been a loyal fan, always hoping for our team to cross that threshold into being formidable, dominant, and winning another Lombardi Trophy, forever. Every single year. It doesn't mean I've been unwilling to acknowledge the details. The good, and the bad.

Hero ball has been a thing, has it not?

Am I a "hater," for asking that, or, just a fan wanting clarification? "blah, blah, blah"

We are all spectators, to varying degrees, fans, in the truest sense. Green Bay Packer "fanatics." Some are able to glean more insights than others. Some have more experience, knowledge, research capabilities, relationships, etc.

We're all spitballin'! Calling out aspects of games played, going back more than a decade... as fans, we know what we've seen, and can look most of it up. Doesn't mean fans "forget," anything. Rather, some are willing to put the fandom down and self scout the team with as little bias as possible.

I acknowledge Aaron Rodgers' many great moments. I also recall many that have led to disappointment and heartache. That is not, "hate." It's called "reason."

What were the factors in play? How did this or that happen? Why did it happen?

I appreciate you and your postings, but, wanted to share these thoughts. Cheers!

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barutanseijin's picture

February 03, 2023 at 03:02 pm

Q: How often have the promises of another Super Bowl with Rodgers panned out?

A: Never.

Enjoy the emmveepee trophies.

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Packerpasty's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:02 pm

I'd have to have quite the imagination to think Love would have us in the Super Bowl this year...but anythings possible I guess..

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Coldworld's picture

February 03, 2023 at 02:27 pm

True for any of the QBs on our roster.

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Coach Cleve Steamer's picture

February 03, 2023 at 03:54 pm

Defense wins trophies. Even with Love who will be a hall of famer some day, Joe Barry’s defense might not have had the guns to win it all. LaFleur ain’t no Belichick or Reid either.

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NickPerry's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:12 am

Hmm...Interesting Bruce, I actually pointed out that 3 of the 4 teams who played last weekend had QBs on rookie contracts. And, you bring up valid points with numbers to back it up. When you look at WC Weekend 8 teams had QBs on rookies deals. Divisional weekend 5 of the 8 teams and as you mentioned 3 of the 4 teams on WC weekend.

I agree, it's not a sure thing, but it sure helps...A LOT... when your QB isn't making the "Big Bucks". Now I understand a team can do all sorts of salary cap gymnastics and when it's all said and done totally screw themselves later on...Just like the Packers have done.

I wonder...EVEN with the $64 million in dead cap the Eagles had this year, could have they made the move for AJ Brown and Gardner-Johnson for example? Pay for Reddick or any of the other D-Linemen/OLB who combined for over 70 sacks this year?

Maybe it's something, maybe it's nothing. But I'll say one thing... I would rather have a promising QB on a rookie deal and load up everywhere else I could, than have a PERSON like Rodgers lead my team while paying him an unbelievable amount of money. I mean HOW MUCH more do we need to see? He's choked the last 3 seasons and the last time against the Lions, the WORST ranked defense in the NFL....TWICE!

The Packers ROYALLY dropped the ball last year not trading Rodgers to Denver. Somehow, someway, the Packers seem to have suiters for Rodgers services again in spite of a down season and that ridiculous contract. TRADE him now, don't look back, and find out if Jordon Love can lead this team. If he can't the Packers would have additional picks to go get that next QB. STOP mortgaging the future for a guy we KNOW doesn't get in done.

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:37 am

"than have a PERSON like Rodgers lead my team"

What do you mean by this?

"The Packers ROYALLY dropped the ball last year not trading Rodgers to Denver."

I disagree with this.
First do we even know if Denver offered the same package as what they gave Seattle?

Sure looking back at it now you can make that claim. But last year Love clearly wasn't ready to be the QB. And Rodgers is coming off back to back MVP seasons. A GM that did that and if Love was terrible, Gutey is likely gone.

And again, this years poor offensive performance wasn't solely on Rodgers. As much as everyone likes to hate on him, he wasn't the only reason why they sucked. The WR position was a mess, the OL was a mess for half the season, the TE's were not as good as they needed, and Dillon took a step back. There is more to it then just blaming the QB.

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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:01 am

Criticizing a person's play certainly doesn't mean he's "hated". It simply means that the person making that criticism, valid or not in your opinion, is using his brain and/or core beliefs to weigh in on a person's performance, actions, and/or personality.

"Hate" sure has been cheapened over the past couple of decades; it seems to mean simply "dislike" now. So - what word do you use when you viscerally can't stand a person? When you can't stand seeing them on TV or on the internet? When that person's actions make you break out in cold sweat and shake with anger? THAT IS HATE.

It take time, it takes effort to truly hate someone. Why would anyone waste that time and effort in hating a sports figure? It takes literally no effort except typing to dislike one. Enough with this "haters" crap (this is not meant specifically for you, RC,, but other folks here as well).

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:18 am

I don't know, you maybe want to read the response I got on my post.

If you have read through the comments and posts about Rodgers, you could easily say people hate him. And most of those comments/posts came after last years vaccination situation. I'm not specifically talking about on this website but on twitter and FB and other social media sites.

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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:27 am

I've read the posts on this site, and people definitely dislike Rodgers (I don't like his personality, myself, and I certainly don't like how he appears to choke in big games), but no posts that I've read indicate hatred.

I've seen outrageous crap about Rodgers and others on other sites, but you have to take the venue with a grain of salt - it's easy being a keyboard warrior with no consequences for what you say and also easy for those in power (looking at you, specific politicians) to say incendiary things to rile a base. I've seen some posts that I would define as "hate" leveled at politicians (just saw a hateful thing today coming out of Arizona). FB can be a cesspit if you let it, and why are you still on Twitter anyway?

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:40 am

And if you noticed a theme, this hatred/dislike (whatever you want to call it) has mostly came since the vaccination thing. Which for the record I don't blame Rodgers at all for taking the road he did initially when he was originally asked about it. The amount of hatred towards unvaccinated players was very intense. Look at Cole Beasley and Kirk Cousins. The amount of hatred that went towards those guys. He saw that and I don't blame him for going the way he did. Could he have handled some things differently. Yes. He is human, which means he is not perfect.

I'm on twitter because that is where I get most of my sports news. I follow specific people that are very good at what they do.
Also, I love that twitter isn't hiding reality now. They are actually allowing some truths to come out. Stuff isn't being covered up and hidden on there. I appreciate that.

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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:57 pm

I disagree that the dislike has come since the vaccination - sounds like you're trying to peddle a narrative. For many of us, the last straw was the tirade before the 21 draft. I know it was for me.

And no, no one "hated" Rodgers for his vax status. Mainly, we were pissed that he'd endanger the rest of his teammates and the team if his catching covid led to follow-on infections among his teammates (which it did to a very minor extent, IIRC). I personally wasn't happy that he lied about it, and because my wife is in healthcare, i ABSOLUTELY 100% KNOW that his stance was completely idiotic. Going to Joe Rogan for healthcare advice? Give me a fucking break. The "smartest guy in the room"? Hell no - he's not even close to being the smartest guy on the team.

As for Twitter allowing truths... you always, ALWAYS have to put quotation marks around the word "truth" when used in conjunction with ANYTHING associated with Elon Musk. For example, Trump is now on Twitter again - do you consider anything he posts to be truthful? Really?

4 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:00 pm

"sigh"

More politics? Can we just discuss football instead?

4 points
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barutanseijin's picture

February 03, 2023 at 03:13 pm

Nonsense. This vaccine victim card is another excuse for the Excuse GOAT.

Rodgers skepticism has increased in step with his playoff failures. This year he wasn’t even able to beat a bottom tier defense to make the playoffs.

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dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:01 am

To be honest, I don't really hate ARod. I have a strong dislike of the situation, but let's be honest: all he's really done is continue to improve his own position. He sees openings, he takes a shot, and he's won almost all of those tilts. He asks for more money, he wins. He asks for more voice and control, and he gets it. Most people in our private dealings try to do the same things all the time, but it's just not on this scale and with this level of spectacle. Every time you ask for, and receive, a raise at work without changing your formal position description, you're costing somewhere else, too, but it rarely stops us from asking. It's really been on upper management to rein him in, and they have chosen not to...so whose fault is it?

5 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:29 am

For the record, I really don't care if people hate Rodgers or not. Everyone has an opinion, and if someone doesn't like him, that is their opinion.

Rodgers saw an opportunity that he probably never would have again in football. A chance to control his destiny. He took advantage of it. I don't blame him for that. Like you said everyone of us would do the same thing if we were given the opportunity.

As for the situation, lets be honest. The Packers put themselves in this position. They drafted his replacement. And when his replacement showed that he wasn't ready to play they literally gave all the leverage to Rodgers. If Love was ready to play last year, things would have went differently this year. Unfortunately he wasn't. This year Love looked more ready, so maybe things change this offseason. But until this point Rodgers has had the leverage and he has used it.

4 points
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dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:43 am

"As for the situation, lets be honest."

We need to be careful...can't have too much honesty in one thread... ;)

3 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:46 am

Valid point.

I will stop talking now. :)

3 points
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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:02 pm

I've been thinking that Rodgers' last salary negotiation went something like this:

AR's agent: "I think, Aaron, I'll start off asking for $150 million/3 years. It's a nice, round number."
AR: "Sure, whatever you think."
Agent: "After Mark comes back with $75 mil over 2 years, I think we'll settle on $100 million over three years."
AR; "Sound reasonable. Would it make me the highest paid QB of all time?"
Agent: "No, but your AAV will be up in the two three."
AR: "I'd prefer to be highest-paid ever."
Agent: "So would I, but that's not going to happen - the Packers' cap is tight."

Agent goes into the first meeting with Murphy and Ball.
Agent: "Gentleman, I'd like to propose $150 million over three year."
Murphy: "We're not idiots, so okay!"

0 points
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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:56 am

Yeah, and maybe stop calling people “haters.” Jesus Christ.

Can we keep it to the football, please?

7 points
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Packerpasty's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:05 pm

yup...especially here on Cheesehead TV...the most outspoken ones HATE him...with a vengeance...funny though, I know many many Packer fans and very few of them wanted him traded or to retire...many of them appreciate the winning years and think that with a few improvements in the roster they could be in the playoffs again next year, with Rodgers...maybe they will trade him, but watch out what you wish for just cuz you don't like the guy...

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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:04 pm

Twitter poll shows that a majority of Packer fans want Rodger traded...

If you think we'll be in contention with AR and his quadnormous contract as QB, then I have a very nice bridge connecting Bayside with Downtown Milwaukee that I'd like to sell you.

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:20 am

Actual meaning of HATE.

To HATE someone means you wish they were dead.

Horrible to use that word in any context.

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T7Steve's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:20 am

Duplicate

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:41 am

Well I did say "hate on" Rodgers -

This is the definition of "hate on somebody" ​(informal) to express strong dislike for somebody; to criticize somebody or say something offensive to somebody.

Not sure what I said wasn't true.

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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:02 am

Actually, it’s perfect when absolutely applicable.

Um, we’re technically in the offseason, right?

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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:00 am

Thanks for taking the time to say this so well, jurp.

FWIW, I’m partial to “loathe,” and, “despise.”

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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:06 pm

Yeah, "loathe" is very good. Can't say I either loathe or despise AR. I'm just really, really tired of his schtick and know that we'll be better off if someone can pry his fingers off of 1265.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:05 am

When he demanded all the money, demanded control over the offense, demanded say in personnel, and then things go to shit, who else are we supposed to blame? Head coach and GM cant do their damn jobs because theyve been neutered to make 12 happy. He cant even be bothered to be part of the team in the offseason but somehow hes the qb, oc, and gm? And when it failed spectacularly he pointed the finger at literally everyone else before ever pointing a thumb at himself. And yet here you are continuing to make excuses for him. He got everything he wanted and somehow its still everyone else's fault. Twilight zone.

2 points
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Rarescope's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:28 am

“He cant even be bothered to be part of the team in the offseason but somehow hes the qb, oc, and gm?”

Wouldn’t think that this needs pointing out but here we are… Off-season seems to imply that there isn’t much going on with the team you think he should be on during the… OFF season.

3 points
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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:05 am

Who is, “Golden Earring?”

Did I win?

2 points
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dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:09 am

I would've gone with "Radar Love", but that's just me.

4 points
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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:11 am

dobs, you're my brother from another mother. It was my first thought as well.

The show was far & away better than the song. But, Radar Love? That kicks.

3 points
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Coach Cleve Steamer's picture

February 03, 2023 at 04:03 pm

I thought we were going to talk about football, “Jesus Christ “?and here you are being cute with your “brother🍌. LoL

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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:11 pm

Both great songs. Funny that they were both hits nearly 10 years apart.

Golden Earring was a hell of a band - they formed in 1961 and stayed together (well, at least the members from 1970 on did) until 2021, when they had to stop performing due to one of the leaders' serious illness. Extremely successful in northern Europe, much less so over here and in the UK.

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Packerpasty's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:07 pm

oh, you mean he did the same things Saint Brady did in Tampa Bay, even getting Bruce A. canned?? Screw Brady, I'm glad he's gone now that he ruined his marriage and sucked last year...

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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:12 pm

Careful - you sound like a hater!

2 points
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NickPerry's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:44 pm

"But last year Love clearly wasn't ready to be the QB. And Rodgers is coming off back to back MVP seasons."

I would venture to say had Love been the QB of the 2022 Packers he'd have won at least 8 games, probably more. Yes Rodgers was coming off back to back MVP seasons but so what. He CHOKED in the playoffs the last two years. I felt a whole lot better as a fan of the GB Packers after the 2010 season than I did after anyone of Rodgers 4 MVP seasons. The Green Bay Packers are ABOUT Championships, not some MVP award.

I'd also venture to say we'd have seen a totally different offense. Something closer to the 2020 season, but even better.

"First do we even know if Denver offered the same package as what they gave Seattle?"

No, we don't know it would have been the same. Hell, it could have been BETTER! You said it yourself, he just back to back MVPs. When did Russell Wilson win it? HAS Russ ever won it? But I feel more than reasonably confident they'd have ALL the picks which could have meant the Packers may have had the 5th overall pick in the draft. Wow, 5 and 15 in the 1st round. Had Love NOT been the guy with 5 and 15 who knows what happens.

The offensive issues weren't all on Rodgers, but several of the losses were. And I don't "Hate" Rodgers. I appreciate everything he's done as a QB for the GBP. It was time last year to MOVE ON. This year moving on is even MORE vital. I mean how much longer to you want to kick the can down the road and get performances like he's given in the playoffs the last several years?

2 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:29 am

Everyone wants to know what the secret formula is for winning games and getting to the super bowl. Its really not that hard. The easiest way to making deep runs in the playoffs is to draft well every year. That is where the team is built.

Most people want to solely look at the QB or look at what expensive free agents are brought in. Which those moves help put teams over the top, much like when GB brought in Reggie White to help win that teams super bowl. Or when GB brought in Woodson to help win the last super bowl.
Now the best way to make it deep in the playoffs is having a good to great QB. The better the QB the lesser amount of talent is needed around the QB. And the lesser the QB the more help is needed around the QB.

But the core of the team is built through the draft. You can't miss on high picks and you need to unearth some gems in the later rounds. Also find key role players throughout. After the draft its up to the coaching staffs to get those players ready to play, and to develop them.

I go back to looking at why our last super bowl run was so damn good. A big part of that is because we had nailed some draft picks before that. Rodgers, Jennings, Jones, Nelson along with Driver made the offense very good. They added Sitton, Lang and Bulaga to the OL. On defense Nick Collins, Hawk, Jolly, Bishop, Raji, Mathews, Burnett. This group was a huge key to winning the super bowl.

Draft well and good things happen!

10 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:06 am

The secret formula is not having a team cancer at the most important position.

-3 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:11 am

And who is the team cancer?

2 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:27 am

Lmfao I admire your dedication to your deity.

1 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:30 am

Cancer is a strong ass word.

Calling someone that I can almost guarantee you have never met a cancer is a strong take.

6 points
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1
Coldworld's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:47 am

Rodgers + our cap + LaFleur + this roster is not a winning concept. That has been shown and clearly. Next year, the old are a little older, the coaches are the same and the roster likely a little weaker.

No hate. Just what is. Rodgers no longer makes sense for the Packers. In fact, he is likely to do considerable harm with his contract if it is seen through.

8 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:59 am

You didn't call him a cancer though. There is a difference.

6 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:34 am

Is he more of a dementia?

Is his real name Al Z. Heimer?

Is it Hodgkins, D?

Wow, just wow... don't try to crack a joke or make a play with words around this crowd... You guys must be a lot of fun at a party... What's a party you ask? LOL...

-6 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:47 am

This has just gotten weird.

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 11:17 am

Like Austin, TX... San Francisco, CA... or even tiny Occidental, CA... just keepin' it weird...

-1 points
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MainePackFan's picture

February 04, 2023 at 06:07 am

RC, I think we can agree there is a sickness going around ; )

0 points
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dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:11 am

I would've said the team formula includes bacon fat...but that goes along with the cancer part, I think.

4 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:36 am

You have stepped WAAAAAYY over the line here.

Do not EVER disparage bacon or bacon fat!!!

Bacon is manna and bacon fat is the nectar of the Gods!

Bacon is far better than even peanut butter cookies...

0 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:48 am

Only thing better then bacon is more bacon!

1 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 11:14 am

I say BACON to your comment!

The only bad bacon is Kevin Bacon...

0 points
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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:15 pm

I like bacon-fat-fried bacon-covered bacon on a stick. Yum!

I actually think that's a real thing at the Iowa State Fair, home of the fried-stick-of-butter-on-a-stick.

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 04:23 pm

Iowa chop on a stick.

Real thing.

What a wonderful way to eat a pork chop!

I used to live inn Des Moines...

0 points
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BruceIrons's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:30 am

Exactly! I usually say that the teams that win the Super Bowl have their offense, defense, and special teams play well in the playoffs.

People say things like "Look at all the great wide receivers on these teams" and I like to add "and the great quarterbacks, and the great offensive lines, and the great defensive lines, and the great linebackers..."

Teams that win the Super Bowl are complete teams - there is no formula beyond that.

5 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:57 am

Exactly, this is a team game. I get that its QB driven, but its a team game. You have to build the best team as you can. Teams that make it deep in the playoffs and to the Super Bowl usually are the most balanced team left. Meaning they have the most talent across the entire roster. But they have to have good QB play and a good supporting cast.

But most of these teams are built through the draft. Not all the players will be stars. But there is a lot of need for role players and backups.

6 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:31 am

The organization has to be on the same page, if not... the odds of winning it all diminish greatly. In listening to AM 1500, the players interviewed (Philly and KC) stated how close they were as a team and one player said they actually loved one another. Now, you can perform at a high level without love filling the room. But, you have to respect and/or trust one another to complete the common goal.

Of course, this is just my opinion with the little knowledge I hear, see and then interpret.

We need to have all on board, with the same agenda. Putting in the time to help gel and build the team to it's best version.

#12 doesn't appear to want to go all in, for the team. He no longer is worth what he is being paid...his high pay isn't his fault. Coach LaF, I don't always disagree with your choice of staff. What I am concerned with, is your unwillingness to cut bait when it truly isn't working.

I don't know who truly is responsible for what. Whomever is, please...right this ship while you can.

*Getting the vinyl out from a good, old Bob Seger song, "Turn the Page".

Thanks and as always, G-Strong.

2 points
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EnemyTerritory's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:50 am

We have Love in the locker room! Otherwise a thumbs up on this comment

2 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:56 am

Oh, I hear ya EnemyT...loud and clear. 👍

1 points
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stockholder's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:50 am

"There is No Formula to Winning".
Depends on who the GM is.

-1 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:07 am

GM's dont throw footballs. If your qb is a cancer theres a 0% chance you're winning a super bowl. See the last 12 seasons for further details.

-3 points
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Rarescope's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:31 am

Horse = dead

7 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:38 am

I snorted on that one...

Thanks!

0 points
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1
jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:17 pm

"Bring our yer dead... *clang*... Bring our yer dead... *clang*..."
"Not dead yet!"

2 points
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Lphill's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:56 am

Rodgers has been a cancer for 12 years, how many top 5 defenses and number 1 receiver picks has he had in that 12 year span?

-2 points
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13TimeChamps's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:20 am

WR's don't need to be drafted in the 1st round to be really good. He had:

Jordy Nelson
Greg Jennings
Randall Cobb
James Jones
Davante Adams

One of the best WR groups of that era.
I'll agree on the defense though.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:35 am

It depends on many things, players, coaches and what had gone before. In 2020 and 2022 I believe we had a good enough roster.

1 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:42 am

If we only had a #1 WR who was drafted in the 1st round we would've.

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:24 am

If only we had a TE drafted in the first round we would've.

2 points
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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:18 pm

Thumb's up because I think you're being sarcastic - AR would never throw to a TE crossing the middle, regardless of what round he was drafted in.

-1 points
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mrtundra's picture

February 03, 2023 at 07:53 am

Is Love still on his rookie deal? He's been riding the pine behind Rodgers, since Gute drafted him. How much time does he have left, if any, on his rookie deal? We may have to eat Rodgers cap hit and still field a QB who may, or may not have a rookie deal. Whatever we do, the cap will dictate how much we can spend now and pay later, just to re-sign players we need to put on the field, let alone any new aquisitions, from the draft or FA. I was all in on cutting Rodgers loose before training camp this past season. I was prepared to let Love lead the team. Now, we have no clue what will happen to either Rodgers, or Love, for this upcoming season. I hope we retain Love. I also hope that Rodgers moves on and Ball does whatever is needed, to lessen Rodgers cap hit with the Packers. That may be an exercise in futility, at this point. We had better hope for a solid draft, where we can sign rookies, at key positions, to cheap contracts, because I fear there will be little, to zero help coming from FA, this offseason.

3 points
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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:03 am

Love still has his fourth year in 23, then, if the team picks up his fifth year option, he'll be making something in the neighborhood of $18-20 million in 24, IIRC.

1 points
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stockholder's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:05 am

Love makes 20,000 in 2024.
(If they pick up his option)
Too many missing pieces.

0 points
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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:09 am

He's a bargain at only $20,000!

4 points
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T7Steve's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:29 am

Think there's a "0" (edit-or more) missing somewhere here.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:37 am

There’s a great deal missing

5 points
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dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:05 am

...O, he's a bargain at $20,000?

;)

1 points
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greengold's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:42 am

Oh, I trust Gutekunst will have this figured out.

Imagine now:
The Jets have no cap space, but their owner will trade and cut as necessary to make this happen.

You know who AR wants as his LT? Bakhtiari. I fully anticipate a mega deal between the two teams, with multiple players involved.

NYJ is horrifically devoid of quality OL. That’s their only weakness, besides QB.

Think AR wants to have that problem playing for the Jets? Hell no.

We’re soon going to see what pulling out all the stops means in NY. They want him badly. Thank you LVR, for helping to raise the price.

1 points
2
1
dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:08 am

I'll just leave this here...

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2023/02/02/davante-ada...

Raiders are dumb. They'll dump Carr on the Jets (who will restructure his deal to make the cap hit minor and win with him), open up about $28M in cap room (they already have about $25M in '23), deal some picks and players for 12, and then fall flat on their faces in a division that's too good for them.

3 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 03, 2023 at 11:44 am

The Raiders can't trade Carr. He has a no trade deal. They can cut him before his 40 mil is due. That's all. Carr is in the drivers seat. Carr writes his own ticket.

4 points
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dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:53 pm

I stand corrected! Thanks BNS! <<tips hat>>

He can agree to waive his no-trade, but it sounds like he's unlikely to do so.

1 points
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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:21 pm

Yeah, the relationship between Carr and the Raiders is dead. The team's only hope is to try to work a deal that Carr approves of and which doesn't affect his salary. Good luck with that. He'll be cut, IMO, before his next bonus is due.

0 points
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Untylu1968's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:40 am

If you're going to dream, dream big! As much as I'm ready for the page to be turned, Rodgers will be back.

-1 points
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Oppy's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:02 am

It's really hard to convince people that you don't need an elite QB - much less a generational talent type QB- to win a lot of football games in the NFL.

I've expressed my desire to get away from the diva QB model and move towards a model that takes away the emphasis on one player and moves it more towards the entire team / system itself. First and foremost, because it's a team game. It also allows you to diversify your investments and create a stronger overall team, which in turn makes you less susceptible to having it all fall apart due to one injury.

I'm so tired of cult of the QB. Unfortunately, most NFL fans, and particularly Packers fans, can't seem to grasp there's other ways to be a winner besides putting all your eggs in the QB basket.

7 points
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3
jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:10 am

Trent Dilfer and late-stage Peyton Manning are the two poster boys of the "you only need a competent game manager QB to win a Super Bowl if you have an excellent defense" school of thought.

4 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:41 am

add Brad Johnson to this list...

2 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:12 am

AMEN!!! The hero worship of quarterbacks is ruining the game. Not just in Green Bay either. Broncos just destroyed their team for years to come with Russell Wilson. Cardinals sold their soul to spoiled brat Kyler Murray. Lamar Jackson just ended his own team's season by sitting out a playoff game cuz $150 million guaranteed wasnt enough. I could go on and on. But thats how the NFL wants it and the fanboys eat it up. You will kneel to your quarterback and you will like it.

7 points
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CheesedDeadHead's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:28 am

Thank you sir, may I have another...

2 points
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BruceIrons's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:32 am

Right. You need a complete team to win. Quarterback may be the most important part, but they don't have to be the best quarterback in the league to win.

5 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:14 am

The problem with this is you still have to have great QB play to win. There are very few instances in the last 20-30 years where an average at best QB won the Super Bowl. Dilfer and Manning are the only 2 that I can think of.

There is a reason why NFL teams are going crazy to find the next QB. They know that the best chance they have to win it all is to find the right QB. Look at what the 49ers gave up to get Lance. Look at what the Browns gave up to get Watson.

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:44 am

They are idiots.

In Green Bay, "We are not idiots"

3 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:47 am

I'd call them desperate.

0 points
1
1
Oppy's picture

February 04, 2023 at 03:14 pm

You need to have great QB play to win when you've built your entire team around the QB position, which is the trend for the last 3 decades in the NFL.

Here's a dirty little secret; the NFL is, for 31 teams in the league; about turning a profit. The exotic sports car QB sells more jerseys and puts more butts in seats than a blue collar, brown bag lunch toting QB.

That's some real shit right there people don't typically consider. This league has you convinced it's all about hoisting the lombardi.. for the players it is legitimately about winning championships.. For 31 teams, it's about lining the pocket book. The championship is only important because it generates $$$$, but there's lots of ways to make $$$$.

0 points
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croatpackfan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:02 am

"Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, heck, even Nick Foles were all established veterans when they led their teams to Super Bowls over the last decade and a half."

ACR was playing 3rd season aa starter and was on cheap deal (there was not 5th year option). He was way of established veteran. How old he was?f

"First, we have the 49ers, where Brock Purdy led an improbable run with a 49ers team that was absolutely stacked on offense and defense. Purdy was the last player drafted last year, giving him an incredibly small salary."

So, it is not about QB. It is about whole team. Not just QB. Prove? Tom Brady 7 win in SBs. As well as Payton Manning 2nd SB win! Nick Foles SB win!

"Joe Burrow wasn't the last pick in the draft like Brock Purdy. He was the number 1 overall pick and still has a large contract. He was 6th largest cap hit on the team. That ain't peanuts."

Joe Burrow played at SB when he was 3rd year QB on rookie deal. They had awful OL and they played vs #1 D by lot in NFL. Still lt was last possesion that decided outcome. If they had top QB, not just average one the question is what will be score at the end. And, this season they lost on last minute FG vs Mahomes led KC.

"Sure, they saved money at quarterback, but do you know what the Eagles spent all their extra money on?

Nothing.

Literally nothing."

Eagles alredy had SB built team. So what you want them to spent the money for? Again their offense and defense was already in place. That is why they have that SC problem, not because they had to spent on one player.

As I see, Wilson was just first in the row that, on rookie deal had 2 SB appearance. Next SB appearance rookie deal Cam Neeton, 2017 no rookie QBs, 2018 rookie deal Carson Wentz / back up Nick Foles, 2019 Jarred Goff on rookie deal, 2020 Patrick Mahomes on rookie deal, 2021 Patrick Mahomes on rookie deal, 2022 Joe Burrow on rookie deal, 2023 Jalen Hearts on rookie deal.

Impressive, isn't it? Every year from 2014 there was at least one QB on rookie deal.

It is not the question about QB. If young QB on rookie deal has enough talent and you have well arranged team you can be true contender for SB win. And composition of team means also that you have excellent coaching staff.

Your thesys does not hold when you want to check.

3 points
4
1
DoubleJ's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:35 am

"ACR was playing 3rd season aa starter and was on cheap deal (there was not 5th year option). He was way of established veteran. How old he was?f"

This could not be more true. Rodgers signed his first extension in 2008 for 6 years and $63M with $7M guaranteed and $20M guaranteed against injury. To say this was a bargain is an understatement. "From 2010 to 2012, Rodgers’ cap hit never rose above $8.5 million." https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2017/06/23/remembering-aaron-rodgers-fi...
For some reference 2010 was uncapped, 2011 & 2012 cap was $120M. At $8.5M Rodgers accounted for just 7% of the cap. In 2022 he accounted for 13.25% of the cap and in 2023 he will account for 14% of the cap. That added cap amount is a BIG reason why the team has to keep kicking the can on salaries down the road and makes it get prohibitively harder to get good players.

4 points
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croatpackfan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:49 am

You are right. But I was talking about SC load, not total contracted money.

0 points
0
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Coldworld's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:03 am

There is no sure fire recipe otherwise all teams would do it. The reality is that it’s a blend of what the QB brings in terms of on field difference in the context of what the franchise can afford to put around him and how well they assemble that.

It’s much easier to have a great cast around a young QB, especially if that young QB followed years of early draft picks it a roster that had a ton of cap to acquire FA talent and actually got it right. Obviously, that’s not really that easy, but when it does happen that team is very well positioned.

Conversely, with an expensive, older QB, there’d a good chance he’s been there for a while and the team has been picking late. There’s also a good chance that players around him get paid more because of those better win to loss seasons and there’s also the tendency to both “keep the band together” and to be paying the QB and others for last year or the year before.

Old works if the QB remains a difference maker and currently performs at a level that justifies his effect in the cap and his surrounding cast is still adequate not old or thin at key positions or both. Bellicheck proved to be a master of that. It’s a ruthlessness and skill at continual cost effective replacement that few have had. The Eagles have a QB playing above pay, but they also have assembled a lot of surrounding firepower and thrown almost as much of their cap in as we have but in a much more condensed timeframe. In essence they are benefitting from their clear out, down years and good acquisition plus Hurt’s value. The dead cap they carry is compensated for by a strong cast and performance differential from Hurts.

Brady won his last Super Bowl by grafting on to a team with a ton of high draft picks and the money to bring in FAs. In the short term achieving the same result of strong surrounding cast, but the window was brief and Brady was just about good enough—in fact his smarts at key moments were really the difference in helping that team over the hump despite him not being the best QB by some way.

To win with old, the roster must be very strong. That’s tough to do on an emotive level as well as on a cap one. Then that QB must be close to elite THIS year, at least at key moments. It can be done, but unless you have a coach/GM partnership like NE did, that was ruthless and incredibly effective at finding value in cheaper players and using them to their strengths to get above cost returns frequently, it’s more often a source of disappointment. It’s also one that leads to a tendency to run it back long after it ceases to be justifiable, even when at one point the pieces were there.

10 points
10
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jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:12 am

I'd argue that Brady won his last Super Bowl because the Packers' offense shat the bed in the title game, but I see your point.

7 points
8
1
BirdDogUni's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:28 am

I would argue the Packers' offense shat the bed because our veteran QB couldn't see any number on the field except 17...

As much as I loved watching AR12 play over the years, in big games, there were far too many weak A$$ performances. Period.

3 points
5
2
jurp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:23 pm

You're right - I was just being polite to the "likers" on this board.

1 points
2
1
DoubleJ's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:13 am

"Joe Burrow wasn't the last pick in the draft like Brock Purdy. He was the number 1 overall pick and still has a large contract. He was 6th largest cap hit on the team. That ain't peanuts."

Only using where their salary ranks is a bad idea. Sure Burrow's cap hit is the 6th largest on the team. However, his cap hit of ~$10M puts his contract below 5% of the total cap. The Bengals highest cap hit in 2022 is Trey Hendrickson at $14.5M. The Bengals also have 14 players making $5M or more. Compare that to the Packers who only have 8 in that pay range. Lets also take a look at the dead money hit for those 14 players and compare it to GB. Those 14 on the Bengals have a total $141M dead money hit. That means they are still on cheap contracts and the team didn't have to do a bunch of kicking the can down the road to fit them under the cap. The Packers 8 players making more than $5M have a total dead money hit of $316M, now half of that is Rodgers. This also shows that the Packers have kicked a lot of money down the road.

Overall having top flight players on cheap rookie deals makes a cap situation much easier. If the QB is on a cheap deal that is even better since he will usually command the highest salary on the team when getting a new contract.

5 points
5
0
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:19 am

Im not gonna sit here and pretend I know how to build a super bowl winning team. But I'm observant enough to tell you how not to build a team. Players play, coaches coach, and personnel guys handle personnel. When those lines becomes blurred, things go to shit. They made a mistake by not trading Rodgers 2 years ago when he held out. Then they compounded that mistake by giving him more money and control just to appease him. Never negotiate with terrorists.

Edit: There has to be an established chain of command that everyone in the organization follows like gospel. Everyone has a job to do. In my line of work (Im a Paramedic) if people ignore chain of command in favor of trying to be the hero, people die. In the military, when people ignore chain of command, people die. Literally any discipline you look at, when chain of command is ignore things go wrong. This team has no chain of command which directly leads to lack of leadership which then leads to breakdown in performance. It didnt used to be that way. It started in 2021. Rodgers held out and leveraged his way into ths command structure somehow. The fox got into the hen house. And they have exactly 0 playoff wins since then.

-2 points
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Rarescope's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:37 am

I was wondering if you were done yet. How’s that drum sound?

0 points
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4
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:38 am

At least my knees arent chapped.

0 points
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5
DoubleJ's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:41 am

"They made a mistake by not trading Rodgers 2 years ago when he held out."

I personally wanted the team to trade Rodgers back in 2018 when he was still considered the best player in the league and only 34 years old. At the time the Browns had the #1, #4, #33, & #35 picks in that draft. GB could have easily gotten each of those pick plus a few extra in the 2019 & 2020 drafts. Since then, I have been hoping the team would trade him. After the 2020 and 2021 seasons his value had been high again and they should have axed him.

6 points
6
0
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:44 am

I wouldve been fine with that. 2018 was around the time I began losing faith in Rodgers. Him running Mccarthy out the door didnt sit right with me at all. The only negative in trading with the Browns is what qb would they have drafted? Mayfield? Darnold? Rosen? I doubt they would drafted Josh Allen with the #1 pick. Couldve been a disaster but I do agree with the sentiment. They've won a whopping 2 playoff games and had their season end in Lambeau 3 times since then.

0 points
5
5
RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:52 am

"Never negotiate with terrorists."

So Rodgers is a terrorist now?

I wish they allowed emojis or gif's in post because it would add to my reaction.

4 points
6
2
Since&#039;61's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:47 am

Really???!!! And what do you think happens when some A=Hole in the chain of command doesn't have a fxxkin' clue?? You think that because they are in a position of authority they automatically know everything. Most often the ivory tower guys in the tower don't have a clue about the reality on the ground.

First off, in combat people die! Chain of command or not. But when the chain of commands fxxks up and they do, many more people die unnecessarily. I don't know if you've ever been in the military or a combat situation but if you haven't you really shouldn't post about the military or chain of command or people dying in combat.

I'll just say this, in the Nam we had chopper pilots who came into hot LZs when the chain of command told them not to and they got our wounded guys out. They saved lives and said FU to the chain of command. They also brought in water and ammo on their inbound trips to the LZ. Saved more lives.

The chain of command is critical at the strategic level but that all goes to hell as soon as the shit hits the fan on the ground. That's where the real life and death decisions are made. Fortunately, the lieutenant I served under was a West Pointer on his second tour. He knew what what was needed to be done rather than what someone in a clean quiet HQ thought should be done. He got us out of some serious shit that the Almighty, all knowing chain of command sent us into. So chain of command sounds great in some stupid movie or novel or in LALA land but it can be a total mess in the reality and then when you radio them they tell you that all of the promised support assets are otherwise engaged. Yeah, so much for the chain of command. More like a chain if smashed assholes.

I can relate to your EMT point since I was a medic in the Nam and I respect your role as a first responder. However, I didn't and wouldn't wait for the chain of command to work on our wounded guys. I just moved to them and dressed their wounds as best as possible while under fire and got them out to the LZ. If I was waiting for some one to tell me what to do then people would have died. Don't compare combat with football or even with a civilian role.

MY Dad was NYPD for 27 years, ('52-'79) so I respect, admire and support of all our first responders. But he was also a WW2 combat veteran in the Pacific. And he always said his worst day as police was infinitely better than his best day in combat. Thanks, Since '61

3 points
4
1
croatpackfan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 11:46 am

Since, most of what you wrote I agree with you.

But "Really???!!! And what do you think happens when some A=Hole in the chain of command doesn't have a fxxkin' clue?? You think that because they are in a position of authority they automatically know everything. Most often the ivory tower guys in the tower don't have a clue about the reality on the ground."

If some person is A=Hole that does not mean you should be the same! There is many ways you can try to influence on status of that A=Hole who doesn't have a fxxking clue, not necessarily by you being A=Hole...

-3 points
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Since&#039;61's picture

February 03, 2023 at 03:40 pm

Croat you are correct! In fact the influence needs to flow both ways. When it doesn't nothing really changes.
Thanks, Since '61

1 points
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croatpackfan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:59 am

You have thought same as me. What was said at that press conference before TC was and is so low that swalloving that sh.t ruined Packers organization respect.

When I noticed the Shaefter twit, I said to myself: "Grant him his wish!" They might got 1st first rounder at the time draft started. I do not remember who was picking first, but it would be perfect.

I agree with you - you do not negotiate with terrorists! Nor you pay them to terrorizes you!

-2 points
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2
T7Steve's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:53 am

Only sure-fire recipe for a winning team is blocking and tackling. Add a QB if you want, a healthy team that blocks and tackles is the only team with a chance to win a Super Bowl. Name one that didn't.

In order to have that recipe, you have to practice together and train hard to help avoid injuries. Don't think you can do that with days of overlapping "vet rest" and walk throughs.

5 points
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dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 08:57 am

Three teams with QBs on rookie deals? A single year is an isolated data point. It doesn't mean much unless it can be coupled to broader observations over the current CBA (framework for contract construction and cap management).

Kinda like a bunch of 4-3 teams in the championship games this year...

4 points
5
1
ImaPayne's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:41 pm

Ya the Rams spent big on a seasoned QB and won a super bowl so whats the point?
the teams mentioned got their QB in the early part of the first round and they were talented guys. Lets not forget all the second third and later round QB's that barely make the practice squad.

0 points
2
2
pantz_bURp's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:08 am

I fear Game of Thrones was a prequel to this beautiful mystery playing out at 1265. Just waiting for the credits to end before I say bye to my stale popcorn...

0 points
1
1
Since&#039;61's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:31 am

There is no one formula for winning the SB. The driving forces today are much different than they were in pre-salary cap/FA and CBA era.

In the pre-salary cap era team rosters remained relatively stable. Possibly more importantly coaching staff also remained relatively stable. For example, in the 60s Lombardi's coaching staff was stable until 1966 when Bill Austin and Norm Hecker moved on to HC roles. Two of his players Starr and Gregg became coaches in the 70s. Same for ChucK Noll and his staff in the 70s only 1 of his assistants was poached during the Steeler SB run in the 70s. Bill Walsh was the first HC to have assistants poached from him during his run with the 49ers.

However beginning in the 90s along with the arrival of FA for the players came the multiple patching of assistant coaches around the league. It's been hectic in the coaching ranks ever since.

Another factor is the CBA limiting practice times both before and during the season. Which mitigates quality reps for all players and has clearly diminished the product on the field The product declines particularly when 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string players are required to move into full time starting roles.

So we have 4 key facts that mitigate building SB winning formula over a period of time as the great coaches and dynasties of the 60s, 70s and 80s were able to accomplish:
First player movement due to Free Agency and salary cap requirements. I don't believe that the Packers, Steelers or 49ers would have been able to keep their teams intact for most of their respective championship decades.
Second CBA rules limiting practice and preparation times before and during the season. This makes it very difficult for non-starters to get in the number of reps necessary for them to be prepared when they are thrust into starting roles.
Third Assistant coaches moving. After SB win a team's assistant's are swooped upon by numerous desperate suiters because they have been part of a winning SB "formula". It also happens to numerous top teams around the league and it happens at every level of coaching. This makes it difficult for the poached teams to maintain coaching continuity that is often critical for teams to remain at or near the top of the league for any length of time.
4th -Rule changes also contribute to teams remaining on top. A drop of a flag or a controversial ruling can change and has changed an entire season for many SB contenders.

Of course injury plagues and inconsistent officiating contribute to a team's fortunes as well. But the environment for building and sustaining a championship team is no longer there as it once was. The NFL has not had a repeat champion since the 2004-05 Patriots. That alone should tell us how difficult it is to win SBs and repeat in the league's current environment.

Bottom line to win the SB even one season that team must win the LOS on both sides of the ball. Offense goes as far as their OL takes them I don't care who is playing QB. On defense, good/great defense begins with the DL. Dominate the opposing OL and that team is probably going to win most of their games and will probably win the SB once they get there. Lose the LOS and go home. Thanks, Since '61

6 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:45 am

"Bottom line to win the SB even one season that team must win the LOS on both sides "

Completely agree!

There were many reasons why this years offense struggled. But one of the biggest was because the OL wasn't good enough. They finally switched it around and it started to play better. After a few games they finally started to jell.

Investing into the OL and DL is a yearly priority for GB. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. But you have to keep investing draft capital into those 2 positions.

In Gutey's 5 years of drafting he has drafted at least 1 OL in every draft. In the last 3 drafts he has drafted 3 OL in each of those. He has drafted at least 1 DL in 4 of his drafts.
He has definitely focused each year on adding players to each group.

2 points
3
1
Leatherhead's picture

February 03, 2023 at 10:54 am

I'd point out that Jenkins, and Myers, were premium picks. 2nd round guys, I believe. When you're drafting an interior lineman that high, he should be one of the best in the draft. And if you're drafting a tackle, he should be good enough to start sooner rather than later.

Most of our line is Day 3 guys, or UDFAs. Bakhtiari, Newman, Runyan, Hanson, Tom, Caleb Jones, Walker. Nijman.

Gutekunst has picked a lot of guys, but most of them are kind of just guys. IMO, we need more guys like Jenkins and Myers, and not so many like Hanson and Newman.

If every simulation I do, I get two offensive linemen in the Top 115 picks.

0 points
2
2
RCPackerFan's picture

February 03, 2023 at 11:24 am

I thought about going on about what rounds they drafted guys and whatnot, but my posts tend to get lengthily so i was sparing everyone from doing so.

You are correct. He hasn't spent a lot of high draft picks at the positions, but lets be honest, he really hasn't had to. He inherited one of the best LT's in the league. You don't typically draft interior OL until rounds 2 or later. So he really hasn't had a big need to draft OT's in the first round.

In the 2nd round he drafted Jenkins and Myers. Both are starters.
In the 3rd round he drafted Sean Rhyan. We have no clue what his future will hold.
In the 4th round he drafted Newman, Tom. Newman was a starter as a rookie and Tom has a bright future.
In the 5th round he drafted Madison. He didn't pan out.
In the 6th round he drafted Runyan, Hanson, Stepaniak, Van Lanen. Runyan has been a starter, Hanson has been a backup OC, Van Lanen was traded.
In the 7th round he drafted Walker. He looked really good in his last preseason game and was kept on the 53 all year.

In his 5 drafts he has drafted 11 OL. The next position that he has drafted for is DB at 8. He has spent a lot more resources at OL then any other position. They do have a very good history of having very good OL with 4/5th round OL. They definitely have an eye for talent in that area of the draft for OL.

I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted at least 2 OL again. 1 in the first 4 rounds I think.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 03, 2023 at 03:04 pm

I would expect that we pull in some interior talent. Rounds 4 to 5 seem most likely. Unless the draft is cruel, we e too many other needs and no cap to help get them. I’d see Edge, Safety, TE and DL as having a much better claim to our first 4 picks on a need basis. Fortunately, Gs tend to be around later.

0 points
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Packerpasty's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:12 pm

yup...a patched together O line finally caught up to the Bengals at the worst possible time...that and really bad officiating...nothing Burrows could do about that..

3 points
3
0
LeotisHarris's picture

February 03, 2023 at 04:07 pm

'61, maybe you've seen this recent piece by Cliff Christl. I'll pass it along anyway.

https://www.packers.com/news/yes-packers-had-dalliance-with-joe-gibbs

It's a story I hadn't heard, and I certainly didn't know the Packers interviewed/contacted Dennis Green, Mike Shanahan, George Seifert, and Tony Dungy before finally hiring Lindy Infante.

2 points
2
0
jannes bjornson's picture

February 03, 2023 at 05:29 pm

O for 5. Now getting back to the management theme from Stockholder.

4 points
4
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Since&#039;61's picture

February 03, 2023 at 06:17 pm

Leotis that's an interesting article. I knew that the Packers had interviewed at least several candidates but I didn't know who they were.

To me the most intriguing alternative would have been Tony Dungy. He evolved into an excellent NFL HC.
Seifert probably was using the interview as a negotiating ploy with the 49ers where he eventually took over for Bill Walsh. green and Shanahan would have been better choices than Infante but I'm going to guess that Infante was the least expensive to hire at the time.

But had the Packers hired Dungy, Green or Shanahan and they were successful we would probably have never had Harlan become team President or have Wolf, Holmgren and Favre come to Green Bay. In the end I think it worked out much better for the Packers in the longer term. We'll never know. Thanks ,Since '61

2 points
2
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Leatherhead's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:47 am

There is no formula, debunked or otherwise. As the old saying goes, "there's more than one way to skin a cat".(Do people even say that anymore?) And there is more than one way to get to the Super Bowl.

IMO, if your QB is on a rookie contract, it gives you a competitive advantage because it gives you money to spend elsewhere. But regardless of whether you're with young cheap guy, you still have to have blocking, defense, etc., of course.

If you look back over NFL history over the last 30 years of the salary cap era, you see several older QBs winning: The Anomalous Brady, of course. Manning. Far more common is the youngster. I recall reading once that unless your name is Brady, you're probably not going to win with a QB who is over 33. Part of that is the salary commitment, but I think it goes deeper.

My best friend was an Apache pilot, and he frequently reminded me that there are old pilots and bold pilots,but no old, bold pilots. They're either dead or they've learned better, and it's the same with QBs. I think it helps to have a bold QB running your offense in big games, and Mahomes and Hurts both fit that mold.

And they have blocking, and they have guys who help move the ball down the field.

If you're looking for a Super Bowl formula, I'd go with a good offense run by a younger, bolder QB behind the best offensive line in the league. If you win your division, your odds of going to the Super Bowl improved from 1:16 to 1:7. If you can win a playoff game at home, it's 1:4. Beat your division opponents, defend your homefield, and you can win your division.

5 points
5
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ricky's picture

February 03, 2023 at 09:58 am

Agreed, cheap rookie contracts are not a guarantee of making a Super Bowl. But, the guys who made it are mobile, are able to move around in the pocket well, and are able to run for significant yardage in critical situations. Rodgers used to have that ability. To a much lesser extent, he can still move around. But, unlike a younger player, he is set in his ways. He has been around long enough to believe his way is the right way. And his contract allows him to indulge his beliefs, because the cost of cutting him would be prohibitive. So, would it be a good idea to move on from Rodgers? I would still vote yes. Not because I think the Packers would immediately upgrade the team around Love, and win a SB, but because getting rid of a player a year or two too early is much better than keeping them around a year or two beyond their expiration date. Especially with the news of Brady's retirement, Rodgers is suddenly much more likely to bring in a decent return of draft picks, and/or players to help the team transition to Love. Then, it will be time to take a hard, cold look at the coaching staff, and be ready to make some changes there if the team underperforms again.

0 points
0
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Coldworld's picture

February 03, 2023 at 02:52 pm

If you are lucky enough to have a top tier performer at QB on his rookie deal, then the competitive advantage is huge. The problem isn’t that this is not a source of advantage, the problem is primarily finding one and then secondarily getting the rest of the pieces around him in time if you do. That’s the scenario that gives any FO the most opportunity to stack talent in the modern era. I doubt any credible GM or analyst would deny that.

If your QB is later bloomer and thus on a less crazy second contract or just young, it’s reasonable to stack his cap forward, because the chances are he’s still playing another 5-10 years and thus the cap hits can be absorbed into his next deal or trade. By then the cap will have increased and so will QB pay, based upon recent decades, in absolute terms if they are good enough. TT did that with Rodgers in the teens.

Where the problem starts really biting is if you have a mega contract on a player with only a year or two left snd a roster that’s been retained around him by spending this years cap on big contracts last year or the year before. That’s when it really starts to hurt. Success gets footballers paid, not just the QB, Once we started pushing that forward every year, we essentially multiplied impact of Rodgers own contract by decreasing the current year available cap pot. That’s the hardest cap profile to win from.

It’s also the hardest to rebuild from afterwards, because one is still paying significantly in cap terms for players departed. That’s the legacy Murphy and Ball signed us up for.

2 points
2
0
Swisch's picture

February 03, 2023 at 11:08 am

Aaron Rodgers is holding us hostage for the third straight offseason.
The first time he held out, in 2021 (to host Jeopardy, and gallivant to Hawaii), he upstaged the entire draft to say (through a reporter whom Rodgers has never repudiated for this story, as I understand it) how unhappy he was with the Packers (for reasons that still seem unclear).
Then, when Rodgers finally deigned to come back to the Packers, on the eve of training camp, he trashed the front office as heartless to its players, which seems a weak excuse, with no compelling evidence, to distract from his own selfishness in relation to his teammates.
***
Since that first holdout, there is ample evidence that Rodgers has been intrusive in coaching the team (need I repeat myself ;-) ?), and has interfered in the GM duties by forcing Cobb on the roster (in a way that he apparently did not do for MVS, for example).
Then there's his tantrum against his head coach on national television at the end of regulation in the game against the Cowboys, which was appalling.
***
Rodgers has treated the fans like dirt, and tainted the Packers with his immature arrogance, yet to be angry with him is to supposedly hate him.
That's just wrong thinking, even dangerous thinking.
This kind of thinking is worse than a cancer. A cancer is a physical malady, a profound sadness; but falsely attacking people as haters and causing division is an evil, a terrible tragedy. (Yes, my dad died of cancer.)
What is hateful is to call someone a hater without basis. It's a manipulative and cynical trick to cruelly shame others and shut down reasonable and necessary debate.
I like to think that these unfair personal attacks and insidious divisiveness are for the most part not a matter of malice by most of the offenders, rather misguidedness. But it has to stop.
To be justifiably angry with someone is not to hate. To sincerely disagree with someone is not to hate.
Oftentimes, to be justifiably angry or to disagree with someone is a sign of caring, friendship, even love.

-3 points
4
7
Leatherhead's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:08 pm

""Aaron Rodgers is holding us hostage for the third straight offseason.""

No, it just appears that way because of all the smoke and bullshit.

Think of a flowchart. Does Rodgers want to play next season, yes or no? If No, retires. If yes, then Packers own his contract.

Do the Packers want Rodgers back as QB next year, Yes or No? If no, then you trade him. If Yes, then you bring him back.

IMO, the Packers have reached the point where they'd rather go with Love, and they're going to trade Rodgers. The comments, the tone, the situation, is different from the last two years. The GM has said that Love is ready, and other people have echoed that. I'm going to take that as a coded dog whistle for "Love is ready to play for us".

You know, for all the crabbing about the front office, they're about to deal Rodgers for high picks a year after dealing Adams for high picks. And we've got a replacement ready for Rodgers. That's not exactly the sign of an incompetent front office.

0 points
3
3
Swisch's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:25 pm

The front office and the head coach have groveled before the retro-adolescence of Rodgers (Why don't you appreciate me? You're the meanest bosses ever! [Slams door and sulks and holds out.]) to the pathetic detriment of their dignity and the gross undermining of the Green Bay Packers in reputation and performance.
Packers' management are the enablers, which makes them little better than the offender.
If they do indeed make a real change somehow, then better late than never.
***
At what point do certain fans realize that Rodgers has played them for chumps, and stop pandering to him?
Do we need a fourth year in a row in which the season ends in agonizing disappointment on our home field to show what happens when egotistic domineering is allowed at the extravagant cost of ceding dignity?

0 points
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4
Packerpasty's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:09 pm

wow...bizzaro post...you sure know a lot about the inner workings of things at Lambeau headquarters...go have a beer..

0 points
3
3
Swisch's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:13 pm

Packerpasty, this is so unaffirming of my reality, and dare I say, hateful.
Your microaggressions are unacceptable.
I sentence you to a 100 sessions of sensitivity training, in which you must admit to an endless array of shortcomings on your part, and bend down in subject servility.
Anytime you reply to my comments in the future, you must acknowledge your inherent hurtfulness and grovel for forgiveness.
And may the god of wokeness have mercy on your soul.

0 points
3
3
ImaPayne's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:36 pm

The fly in this ointment is the bungels, niners and eagles all drafted for the day not the future. Burrows was not going to bench sit and Hurts was there to learn and play soon. Ditto for Lance.
No one who knows what a football looks like can figure out why the hell Gutt moved up in the draft for a guy no one ever heard of and someone that wasnt to be used for years to come? DUH
Love has wasted away now, what 4 seasons? Rodgers is coming back and I dont think he wants a trade and for sure he doesnt give a rats ass about Loves problems. He wants his money and to stay in packerland.
What happens after that is the packers problemo

-5 points
1
6
PackyCheese500's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:43 pm

I don't know, but I don't think Bears fans like yourself should really care. Enjoy having an overpaid team full of second-rate free agents this year.

Also, if it is the Vikings you like, I would not be surprised if they win 7 or less games this year. They just got really lucky this year, and they are 24 mil over the cap.

4 points
4
0
dobber's picture

February 03, 2023 at 12:59 pm

"Burrows was not going to bench sit and Hurts was there to learn and play soon. "

No, Hurts was drafted to sit behind Carson Wentz, who was coming off a really good 4000 yard, 27 TD, 7 INT season. Wentz just happened to self destruct AFTER Hurts was drafted.

6 points
6
0
Swisch's picture

February 03, 2023 at 01:52 pm

I would be an interesting and relevant exercise, perhaps, to study and discuss the way in which the Eagles moved on from Wentz -- and I would guess a burdensome contract -- to the point of returning to the Super Bowl this season.
I don't know much about that situation -- but maybe they actually admitted to making a big mistake, at least to the extent of taking action to correct it.

3 points
4
1
jannes bjornson's picture

February 04, 2023 at 11:22 am

Drafting Wentz was their Mistake.

0 points
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marpag1's picture

February 04, 2023 at 07:19 am

The very notion that any one playoff is somehow going to debunk a winning formula or approach is just a silly waste of time.

0 points
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0