Film Review: Is Harold Landry Worth Pick 14?

We are officially within three weeks of the NFL Draft and it’s time to start getting serious about Green Bay’s options at pick 14. At least four quarterbacks are likely to be selected in the top ten, which means Green Bay should get a top ten position player in this years’ annual selection meeting.

One of the more intriguing options that could be available when Green Bay selects is edge rusher Harold Landry.

The quick rundown on Landry was that he was a top prospect at the end of 2016 who came back for his senior season to improve his draft stock. In 2016 Landry posted a ridiculous 22 tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, 4 pass breakups and 1 interception. As impressive as his stat-line was, his tape was even better in 2016. More on that in a moment.

In 2017 Landry’s season started off well enough. In his first 6 games he had: 8 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, and 2 pass breakups. He wasn’t quite on pace for the year he had in 2016, but he was in line for another impressive season.

Unfortunately in week six against Virginia Tech, Landry suffered a bad ankle injury and he was never the same after that. Landry didn’t play as well against Louisville or Virginia, and then sat out the remainder of the season due to the injury.

The knock on Landry was that he didn’t play as well in 2017, ankle injury or not. To an extent that’s true. What’s also true is that teams started giving Landry a bit of the Jadeveon Clowney treatment; meaning they ran away from him, double teamed him, cut him, chipped him, and made him constantly think by running traps, draws, and screens to his side of the field. Landry never was able to get into a grove in 2017 like he did in 2016, but the flashes were undeniably still there.

So what does Landry bring to the table and should he be considered at pick 14? Let’s take a look:

Positives:

  • Rare Athletic Ability
  • Bend/Flexibility
  • Quick first step
  • Ability to win inside
  • Analytics

Negatives:

  • Size/Anchor
  • Pass Rush Repertoire
  • Less impressive 2017
  • Struggles to disengage

Rare Athletic Ability

This is what makes Landry so incredibly intriguing. Landry ran through the combine like a man possessed. He finished with a 4.64 40-yard dash, a 36 inch vertical, 119 inch broad jump, a fantastic 6.88 3-cone and a 4.19 short shuttle. It short, it ends up looking like this:

Landry isn’t just a pretty combine score, his athletic ability consistently shows up on tape. Whether it’s getting a great jump off the line, bending around the edge, or making athletic plays in the open field, Landry was able to showcase his full ability at Boston College.

Bend/Flexibility

While athletic ability is attribute 1A for Landry, his ability to bend around the edge is what truly makes him special. Simply put, most NFL edge rushers can’t bend around the corner the way Landry does. His ability to get low, bend around the corner, and flatten to the quarterback is truly a work of edge rusher art. When you hear scouts or coaches talk about wanting players who can bend around the edge, Landry provides a textbook definition of what that’s supposed to look like. Landry will make it incredibly difficult on slower, less athletic tackles in the NFL.

Quick First Step

Landry’s first step may not be quite on the level of Vic Beasley’s, but it’s not far off. Landry looks so fluid out of his stance that it almost looks like he’s jumping offsides. When you slow down or pause the tape after the snap, Landry is consistently ahead of the rest of the linemen on his team. Once again, this matches up with his combine and athletic scores.

Ability to Win Inside

In a moment we are going to break down why Landry needs to work on his pass rush repertoire, but the fact that Landry was able to win with both speed around the edge, and by crossing the face of the offensive tackle is a huge positive sign. I’ve seen too many linemen who are just speed rushers around the edge and never develop a counter-move inside. Landry has work to do, but this is a promising start.

Analytics

The best scouts marry the concepts of both traditional scouting and new-age analytics and the best thing about Landry is that his incredible tape is backed up by his even more incredible analytic profile.

Let’s start with Justis Mosqueda who has developed a formula for something he calls “Force Players.” You can read more on Force Players, here: http://settingedge.com/movement but without going into too much detail, know that if a player measures out as a top tier force player they are extremely likely to succeed as an NFL edge rusher. Landry qualifies.

If you’re not sold on Force Players, how about this stat… there have been six first-round pass rushers who weighed over 250 pounds and ran the 3-cone in under 6.9 seconds. That list:

  • J.J. Watt
  • DeMarcus Ware
  • Joey Bosa
  • T.J. Watt
  • Melvin Ingram
  • David Pollack

Harold Landry will be the next edge rusher in that group.

Or how about Relative Athletic Score? This is a formula by Kent Lee Platte to measure the most athletic players at their position. Landry’s finished as the 55th most athletic edge rusher out of 952 ever measured.

And lastly, Jim Cobern who does some impressive analytic research put out a great video on Landry and the upside he possesses from an analytical standpoint. Long story short, Landry meets all the thresholds to be an All-Pro edge rusher: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WTB_bIH1MQ

When you put all the analytics together, Landry looks as good, if not better, than the tape would even suggest.

Size/Anchor

If there’s anything that’s going to hold Landry back from being a top 15 pick, it’s his run defense and anchor. When a GM is selecting an elite player in the top 15 of the draft, they rightfully want that player to be able to be effective in all facets of the game that their position requires. For edge rusher that’s both rushing the passer and holding up at the point of attack in the run game. The latter is where Landry can struggle. Landry is athletic enough to make plays in the run game but his anchor at the point of attack is questionable. Even Boston College would have games where they would take Landry out on running downs and save him for pass rush situations. A GM who wants the total package out of their top 15 pick may choose to pass on Landry and pick someone that has a bit more complete profile.

Pass Rush Repertoire

Landry can win on the outside with his speed, get off, and agility—that’s not a problem. The problem is that if Landry truly wants to be a top end pass rusher he will absolutely need to build a move set or offensive tackles will be able to shut him down with much more regularity. Landry has to develop a better counter inside, such as a spin move, because his hesitation/counter-move won’t work as well at the next level. He would also benefit from developing his upper body strength to better convert speed to power and develop a better push-pull move as well. The fact that Landry has been so productive without a strong move set is almost more impressive, however. If he does in fact develop a plan as a skilled pass rusher, look out.

Less Impressive 2017

If Landry had the same tape in 2017 as he did in 2016 Green Bay wouldn’t sniff him at pick 14. The truth is that even before Landry’s injury he didn’t consistently look like the same player he was in 2016. Bucky Brooks compared Landry’s 2016 tape to Von Miller. His 2017 tape is probably more like Jerry Hughes. While both are solid players, there’s a fairly big gap between the two. If Green Bay gets a Von Miller caliber player at pick 15, it could change the defense’s fortunes for the foreseeable future.

Struggles to Disengage

Longer, more skilled offensive linemen are able to get their hands on Landry and shut him down before he gets moving. Landry doesn’t currently have the musculature to consistently get off of these types of blocks and lacks a plan once he doesn’t win initially. College edge rushers aren’t expected to have all these things figured out by the time they reach the NFL but if he continues to struggle with long-armed athletic tackles, it will certainly limit his ceiling as a professional.

So is Harold Landry worth pick 14 for Green Bay? The answer is undeniably yes. When a team drafts in the top 15 they want a player who can make a difference from day one, preferably at a premium position (QB, Edge, OT, CB). Landry fits the bill on both accounts. Maybe he is only a pass rush specialist for the first couple years of his career but Green Bay’s biggest need is someone who can get them off the field on 3rd downs. They also need a big-time playmaker and a player who will make the defensive backs’ job easier. Drafting a player who has the ability for 15+ sack seasons and can get to the quarterback with incredible speed is exactly what the doctor ordered for Green Bay’s defense. A rotation of Perry, Matthews, Landry and Biegel on the outside would be a huge improvement from a season ago. Should Landry be there when Green Bay selects at 14, he should be Brian Gutekunst’s first ever NFL Draft pick.

For more on Harold Landry and a full breakdown on all prospects, make sure to order the CheeseheadTV Draft Guide: https://cheeseheadtv.com/items

Listen to previous Friday Film Room sessions here: https://soundcloud.com/andy-herman-596646919

Make sure to tune in Friday’s at 9:50am on WDUZ: http://www.thefan1075.com/

 

__________________________

Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. You can find him on WFRV's Green Bay Nation and every Friday on the Friday Film Room on WDUZ . Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (42)

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kevgk's picture

April 05, 2018 at 04:16 pm

Great write up, excellent content! I wouldnt be surprised if Gute plays it a little careful with his player selection. I'm not talking about what style or position, but injury history, consistency, and immediate impact. He knows he won't get too many 14th overall and needs a day one splash player, not someone who gets injured, takes time to develop, or never pans out. Landry carries that risk with him. But thats just speculation.

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EddieLeeIvory's picture

April 05, 2018 at 05:17 pm

What do you mean "Landry carries that risk with him"?
All prospects carry risk, as do all free agents.

Great work here Andy!

This is my #1 desire for our pick at #14.

1 Landry
2 Davenport
3 Denzel
4 Jaire
5 Josh Jackson

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Turophile's picture

April 06, 2018 at 01:48 am

For me, it's a close call on whether to choose Landry or Davenport. Over time I have switched back and forth between the two.

Landry needs to develop more of a bullrush. Guys who mostly run the edge can often be neutralised by NFL level tackles. To really shine they need a speed-to-power move to complement running the arc. Landry flashes that (see the clip above), but mostly he's an arc runner.

Davenport can do the speed-to-power move, but needs to learn to run the arc more.

Taking into account the difference between the two, I think I'd rather try to refine a guy to better run the arc, than refine his bullrush, because the bullrusher has already proved he has the mentality to regularly get physical with guys that weigh a lot more than he does..............and not everyone can, or wants to do that.

To be fair, Landry can 'bull it', but he doesn't do it consistently. Another advantage of being a regular bullrusher is that they learn better hand fighting.

Now Davenport looks a little more raw than Landry (and his legs look just a bit thinner than I like). I also expect Landry to look more like his 2016 self once he is drafted - that's what makes this comparison so close.......but here, today, I go Davenport.

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qotsa1's picture

April 05, 2018 at 04:22 pm

Great article Andy! I'm hoping he is the Packers pick at 14.

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Ryan Graham's picture

April 05, 2018 at 04:44 pm

Keep these breakdowns coming Andy, love it!

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dobber's picture

April 05, 2018 at 04:52 pm

Agreed!

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

April 05, 2018 at 04:59 pm

Excellent article. I agree, Landry is one of the guys who would be a real difference-maker at #14.

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OrganLeroy's picture

April 05, 2018 at 05:28 pm

Hard to be a difference maker when you're one dimensional and can't anchor the run. I like Landry but 14 is too high for my taste.

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Hagster's picture

April 05, 2018 at 05:31 pm

Totally agree, but he’d be expected to be more of a speed rusher for the first couple years. Wouldn’t expect him to anchor the run for a few years.

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EddieLeeIvory's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:06 pm

He can anchor. See PFF Grades in 2015 vs the run, he was great.

But here's the key: OUR DEFENSE SUCKS on 3rd down. Passing situations, cannot get off the field. You all remember that. He CAN be a differene-maker on 3rd downs immediately, which gets Rodgers back on the field.

I'm sick of our D having 3rd & 8 or 3rd & 13, and we come to expect them to pick it up with all day to throw and someone wide open with a miscommunication or bad coverage from Rollins, Randall, a LBers, etc.

Get after the dayum QBs off the edge (Landry, Clay, Nick) and in their faces (Daniels, Wilkerson, Clark). Hit the QBs. Especially ones who wear purple.

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DD's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:42 pm

Eddie: Do I ever agree with you. Especially on the queens and Cousins. It would be so sweet to plant Cousins!! Barr none....

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John Kirk's picture

April 05, 2018 at 06:58 pm

That's gotta be a rhetorical question, JS. :) He has anti-fans.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 05, 2018 at 08:57 pm

We have a few who grade the poster not the content of the post.

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John Kirk's picture

April 05, 2018 at 09:12 pm

We sure do. ALP is among my favorites just like you, TGR. Some argue it's the tone of the posts that causes a stir, but it's the message first, then the messenger. Once too many messages are posted that are unpopular to certain elements, the messenger is vilified for all time here. I think ALP crossed the Rubicon long before I did. When he gets a little perturbed his attitude toward the gaggle of goons is cited as why he's so unpopular. It's a beautiful thing to watch from my perspective.

My wife took an interest this eve in CHTV. She asked me questions about the site and I showed her a flow of posts that were soundly downvoted of mine and the words of WKU. She knows nothing about football but she thought the "WKU guy" words toward me should be taken as a compliment. I just laughed because I already did. It's fantastic that I matter as much as I do to him. I'm living rent free in his head. I've not even tried to curry any favor from him and he's president of my fan club.

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Hawg Hanner's picture

April 05, 2018 at 05:05 pm

Great Analysis. Looks better than Bryce Paup

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Colin_C's picture

April 05, 2018 at 05:18 pm

Great write up here! I disagree with the conclusion, but very well written nonetheless. Landry is one of the most divisive prospects I've seen this year. Not just for us Packer fans, but fans of other teams looking for edge guys seem split on him as well. Some say he's the best defensive player in the draft, and others say he's a 2nd rounder. I personally lean more towards the second. Your last point is what scares me most about him. For every rep where he slips around the OT, there's another where he's completely neutralized. He really struggles to get off blocks, especially against the run. What makes a guy like Khalil Mack so special is that not only does he dominate when rushing the QB, he also sets the edge extremely well. People like to knock Davenport (who does play the run well) for being raw, but I'd say they're pretty similar in that regard. They both have relied a lot on their AA, with just enough technique to get by. I don't think Landry will bust, but I'm not confident he'll be able to replicate his 2016 college success in the NFL. If I had to choose between Davenport and Landry at #14, I'm going with Davenport every time.

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kevgk's picture

April 05, 2018 at 05:32 pm

I agree on them both being raw. At 14 raw isnt a good adjective. If they want a real BAP it will likely be one of the safties or Ward if one of them drops. Maybe Roquan or Edmunds will drop instead. I think a great versatile middle/inside linebacker will do wonders to the team too. I would be happy if they traded the 2nd pick up to grab either Davenport or Landry if they fall though.

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Community Guy's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:25 pm

i feel like the two guys who have a small chance of sliding to 14 and are relatively "safe" are Derwin James and Roquan Smith.. barring unforeseen injury, i doubt those two guys will bust. probably those two guys will not be there at 14. so, the Packers' pick at 14 will like carry notable risks. it could be questions about size (Alexander, Hughes, Ward, Landry), Raw-ish technique (Edmunds, Davenport, Jackson), injury history (Landry, Alexander).. pass rush ability (Vander Esch).. blah, blah, blah. i just hope that the guys at 1265 can make the best decision. as a fan, i am going to recognize that making draft choices are not easy.

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CheesyTex's picture

April 05, 2018 at 09:29 pm

Right on CG. Pack does not need injury prone at #14.

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TC026's picture

April 06, 2018 at 07:14 am

Agree, a versatile middle/inside linebacker will do wonders to this team.

Mathews in the middle and add the best available edge rusher at #14 and
then another one in the 3rd. round and go corner with 2nd. and 4th picks.

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Minniman's picture

April 05, 2018 at 06:27 pm

some great points Colin_C. I'm of the opinion that this is not a year for the packers to go speculating ..... I know, the draft is mass speculation personified...... but the Packers really can't afford to screw up the 1st round pick on a bust or speculative player.

That said, Nick Perry sets a good edge for run defense, and it's likely that Clay Matthews is going to have a roving role in 2018. With the D-line firming up (with Wilkerson) there's scope for landry to exist as a pure outside rusher in the packers D without being mired in line of scrimmage battles that would likely neutralize his talents early in his career (although he will ultimately have to reliably win those battles against tackles)

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Hagster's picture

April 05, 2018 at 05:28 pm

Another great film breakdown per usual.

I’ve been impressed with all the film on Landry, that kind of athleticism really jumps out. The large majority of mock drafts have pegged Landry somewhere in the 18-23 slot (yes I know take mock drafts with a grain of salt) it’s tough for me to think of drafting a guy when you know you could trade a couple spots back and still get him (also don’t think we should be trading back). However, any edge rusher they take will probably be a situational rusher for a year or two then take over for Matthews. Still I think Landry has a very high ceiling.

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4thand1's picture

April 05, 2018 at 06:23 pm

People, don't worry about how good Landry or Davenport will be against the run, it's a passing league grrrrrr. A high end pass rusher is a top commodity for a reason, get to the QB and be disruptive in the passing game. Landry has speed its what we're lacking.

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4thand1's picture

April 05, 2018 at 06:56 pm

I've seen a couple of mocks where they have Ward dropping to us. I would shit in my pants if he did.

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DD's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:45 pm

I'll send you the soap to clean it up. Lol.

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John Kirk's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:11 pm

Who is the voice in the clip? I've heard it on all of these snips and don't know who it is?

Whomever it is, the guy sounds smart and I think he's got a great radio voice. There is command presence and just an overall nice tone. I hope whomever it is is using his gifts to their fullest extent over the air.

I don't know the answer to that question but I don't want the Packers to spend 14 on him. I'm turned off by his senior season and the fact he wasn't hurt until Week 7. I've read conflicting things on when he was injured but saw a clip of him saying he was injured in the 3rd quarter against Louisiville and then re injured vs. FSU and then shut down. I went back and looked at his game logs. He had 5 sacks in the over 6.5 games he wasn't injured. 3 came against Va Tech... I haven't looked into it but I'm guessing VT had some issues at T that game. The other sacks came vs. Central Michigan and Wake Forest. Not your storied football programs. His 2016 looks a lot better but he didn't follow his performance in 2017 when he had everything riding on it.

Had a nice showing at the combine. Is anyone really that much higher on Landry than they were on Nick Perry?

EDIT: Here's the Niners version of Andy's great piece just to offer another perspective:

https://www.fourthandnine.co/single-post/2018/03/08/Whats-concerning-abo...

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stockholder's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:22 pm

Well said John. Not @14! Landry has to many mixed reviews. Thats the biggest warning sign. The scouts are not in agreement on Landry. For everyone that says something positive. One says negative. He's been a Yo - Yo in the mocks. I don't see him at all as a 3 down person. He's not Rock solid. Everyone has Davenport ahead of him. There are many LBs, or others, that can play edge in this draft.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 05, 2018 at 09:11 pm

I remember CM3 taking those wide speed rushes and QBs (Kaep anyone) eating him alive by taking off running into the voluntarily surrendered gap. That is a trade-off one takes on outside speed rushes. CM3 was a pretty good pick, though.

I am okay with Landry. I suspect we could trade back and still get the loveseat or Landry - one probably falls into the late teens. Hope BG is a good poker player and can read other GMs.

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stockholder's picture

April 06, 2018 at 07:37 am

He's not Cm3. He's considered a 1 trick pony that was a DE, not LB. We have 16 games to play. I think he's got the speed being young. Could flash early. But; He's got a lot to learn at LB if the Packers take him. The experts do prefer Davenport. I agree.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 06, 2018 at 01:39 pm

I am not arguing. IDK whether Landry or Davenport ends up the better player. I think Landry has the physical tools to be far more than a one-trick pony. Needs some NFL coaching and some upper body strength. Davenport has tons of raw ability. I would guess that Landry could do more in year one as a pass rush specialist than Davenport but that begs the question over each player's long-term career potential.

Can you teach the bend/balance that Landry displays? IDK.

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Lare's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:00 pm

IMO, Landry looked better than any of the other edge rushers at the combine. Compared to them, he was very fluid in his moves and adjustments to the ball.

Don't know if he's a value pick at 14, but I think he'll be a pass rushing force in the NFL with good coaching and training.

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fthisJack's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:06 pm

great article. i don't know if i'm sold on any edge rusher at 14. my top 3 picks at 14 would be...
1. James
2. Smith
3. Vea

I don't think any of these guys will make it to 14 so Gute may have to trade up to get one.

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DD's picture

April 05, 2018 at 07:46 pm

No trade up. We'll get a great player.

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flackcatcher's picture

April 05, 2018 at 10:00 pm

Nice work Andy.

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Rossonero's picture

April 06, 2018 at 07:01 am

Fantastic work, Andy! I've been a big Harold Landry fan for a while now, and this only solidifies it even more for me. I even see shades of Vic Beasley, in terms of height, weight, arm length and speed. Beasley needed his rookie year to figure things out, but once he did, oh my gooodness.

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dobber's picture

April 06, 2018 at 07:09 am

People are second-guessing him much they way they did Derek Barnett last year (but for very different reasons). He turned out pretty well...

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carlos's picture

April 06, 2018 at 09:25 am

Impressive work Andy. Takes a lot of time and commitment to give us these insights. My problem is I can name 10 guys or more I’d love to get in the first round. To be in Gute’s shoes and have all these decisions, even with all the Packers resources, is mind boggling to me. Will just have to trust and hope whoever is picked pans out and can stay healthy and get on the field.

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Cartwright's picture

April 06, 2018 at 03:14 pm

By looking at the tape Landry has a real solid burst. If he needs more strength send him to the weight room, that can be worked on, speed is a gift that can't be taught . Should we land Landry, at 14 and then cb Isaiah Oliver who also looked really good from the critque I saw of him, we'll be sittin' pretty. Funny, no one hear has mentioned this Oliver kid yet, isn't he on anyone's radar?

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carlos's picture

April 06, 2018 at 07:36 pm

That would be great Fordham. I like Oliver. Not sure he’ll be there in the second round.

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Arthur Jackson's picture

April 06, 2018 at 03:24 pm

I was not in favor of Landry initially, but in the last week even before seeing this I had come to see him as a possible Von Miller. This is a guy that if not for a bum ankle last year the Packers would not have a chance at getting him.

I don't buy the idea he can't have an impact immediately. The thing is Matthews and Perry have the outside locked down anyway so he can be like Terrell Suggs in his rookie year. Pass defense is far more important than run defense. There is a good reason why great run stuffers don't get paid what an even average sack master can get.

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Duneslick's picture

April 07, 2018 at 02:11 pm

Packer Greg says : Not saying i like Davenport over Landry but I like power rushers over outsude rushers. When an outside rusher fails he is either stuffed or runs way outside and around the QB. When a power rusher fails he still pushes the blocker back into the QB and creates pressure and can collapse the pocket helping the other rushers as well He also gets in the QB.s face

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NoNonsense's picture

April 09, 2018 at 12:03 am

Normally I like football players who play with power and violence in the trenches like Davenport but Landry has so much short area quickness, flexibility and enough smarts and hand usage that the idea of having a guy who can whip around OTs like they are standing still may be too good to pass up. With Daniels, Clark and Wilkerson pushing the middle its gonna be tough for the QB to step up in the pocket to avoid Landry and Matthews on the edge.

I would be very happy with Landry or Davenport though, I think both guys are beasts in their own ways. Unless Ward is sitting there at 14, I think its one of those two. Day 2 should bring a good CB or two.

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