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Fantasy Football 2017: Packers Predictions, Likes/Dislikes, and Week 14 Rankings

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Fantasy Football 2017: Packers Predictions, Likes/Dislikes, and Week 14 Rankings

Packers Predictions

  • Davante Adams puts up at least 75 yards and a touchdown – Adams should bounce back after posting just 42 yards against the Buccaneers. The soon-to-be free-agent has had at least 50 yards and a touchdown in every road game this season.
  • For the second time in three games, Brett Hundley completes multiple touchdown passes – Hundley has been Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde since taking over for Rodgers, and this week he’s due to be Dr Jekyll. The Browns have allowed eight different quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns against them in 2017.
  • Josh Gordon explodes for 150+ yards and a touchdown – Few teams have been more susceptible to wide receiver explosions than the Packers have in the Dom Capers era. Gordon is as talented as any receiver in the league, and he realistically could get 12 or more targets in this game.

 

Likes/Dislikes

Week 12 Recap

Hits – likes: Philip Rivers (QB12), Josh McCown (QB2), Leonard Fournette (RB14), Rex Burkhead (RB3), Michael Thomas (WR11/12), Robby Anderson (WR15/9), Hunter Henry (TE11/TE8).

Hits – dislikes: Matt Ryan (QB30), Derek Carr (QB19), Jacoby Brissett (QB24), Matthew Stafford (QB20), Kareen Hunt (RB39/34), Frank Gore (RB51/62), DeMarco Murray (RB33/30), DeVante Parker (WR100), Golden Tate (WR32/19), Martavis Bryant (WR47/45), Tyler Kroft (TE24), Austin Hooper (TE31/TE23).

Misses – likes: Kirk Cousins (QB15), Drew Brees (QB22), Jordan Howard (RB57/59), Jamison Crowder (WR35/29), Jordy Nelson (WR77/50), Jared Cook (TE53/TE54).  

Misses – dislikes: Theo Riddick (RB15/13), T.Y. Hilton (WR16/20).

DNP: Adrian Peterson

  • Week 13 score: 19/27 (70%). Season hit rate: 201/349 (58%).

Likes

Alex Smith – In week 13, Smith once again looked like the top-5 QB he was early in the season. He dropped 26 points on the Raiders in week 7 and there’s a good chance that he’ll have another big game this week. There is reason to be cautious however, as four of Smith’s five 20+ point games have come on the road.

Blaine Gabbert – The model that I use to rank quarterbacks loves Gabbert this week, projecting him to be the QB8. The Titans have been generous to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Gabbert possesses a solid rushing floor.

Jameis Winston – Four of the last five quarterbacks the Lions have faced have scored at least 18 points. Winston has been a QB1 in games that he has been healthy.

Jimmy Garoppolo – Garoppolo performed very well against Chicago’s bend-but-don’t-break defense, though he wasn’t able to put any touchdowns on the board. This week he faces a Texans defense that has allowed the fourth most touchdown passes.

Matthew Stafford (if healthy) – Despite allowing just 84 yards to Brett Hundley, the Buccaneers have allowed the third most passing yards in 2017. Stafford is a top-6 quarterback if he is adequately healthy.

Josh McCown – My model loved McCown last week and is predicting a low-end QB1 finish this week. No team has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Broncos – though they tend to be stingy with yardage to quarterbacks (both passing and rushing).

Melvin Gordon – Gordon is due for a big game and it could come against a Redskins defense that has allowed 873 yards and 8 touchdowns to running backs over their last eight games.

Peyton Barber – Barber pummeled the Packers for 143 scrimmage yards in week 13, and he’ll face a Lions defense that has allowed 772 yards and 10 touchdowns to the position over their last 7 games. Barber needs to be downgraded if Doug Martin is active, as the Buccaneers will likely stubbornly insist on giving touches to the inferior Martin.

Giovani Bernard – Bernard looked spry after Joe Mixon went down with a concussion in week 13. He will be an RB2 if Mixon were to be inactive against the Bears.

Frank Gore – The Bills have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns since week 9, and that includes a dud from Kareem Hunt. Gore is a good bet to score this week.

Marshawn Lynch – Lynch is averaging 93 scrimmage yards and a touchdown over his last four games. This week he will face a Chiefs run defense that has been one of the league’s worst since week 6.

Kenyan Drake – As long as Damien Williams is out, Drake is a top-12 play at his position – even against an improving Patriots defense.

Marvin Jones Jr. – The Buccaneers have been abysmal against wide receivers and Jones could be in for a monster game if Stafford is able to go.

Michael Crabtree – No Cooper. No Peters. This could be a blowup spot for Crabtree

Davante Adams – I expect Adams to bounce back this week against a deteriorating Browns secondary.

Josh Gordon – Unlike the Bucs and Mike Evans, the Browns will force the ball to Gordon, and he’s talented enough to turn those targets into 150+ yards and multiple scores.

Sterling Shepard – In his last two healthy games with Eli, Shepard has caught 16 passes for 212 yards. The Cowboys have had trouble slowing down slot receivers this season – making Shepard a safe WR2 in PPR.

Marquise Goodwin – Goodwin caught 8 passes for 99 yards in his first game with Garopppolo and he should have a big game against Houston’s leaky secondary.

Stephen Anderson – Tom Savage showered Anderson with 12 targets last week, resulting in 5 receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown. This week the Texans will be without C.J. Fiedorowitz, Will Fuller, and Bruce Ellington against a 49ers defense that has allowed a touchdown or 100 yards to the tight end position in six of their last seven games. Stream Anderson.

Cameron Brate – Brate has been a top-6 tight end whenever Winston has managed to stay healthy in 2017. This week he’ll matchup with a Lions secondary that has allowed a touchdown to the position in three straight games.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – ASJ has struggled as of late but has still gotten targets. He should be able to turn those targets into production against the second worst tight end defense in the NFL.

Ricky Seals-Jones – He seems to have a good rapport with Gabbert and this is a matchup he could take advantage of.

Jason Witten – Anytime a tight end goes up against the Giants, he’s worth a look.

Bengals D/ST – Opposing defenses have scored 8 or more points against the Bears seven times this season. No defense has scored less than 5.

Titans D/ST – Tennessee’s D/ST has scored 8+ in four of their last eight games and teams have scored an average of 11.5 points against the Cardinals since week 7.

Packers D/ST – Teams have scored on average 14 points against the Browns since week 6. The Packers don’t have a defense to write home about, but they tend to pad their stats against bottom-tier opponents.

Patriots D/ST – The Patriots have enjoyed a resurgence from their defense that has scored 8 or more points in five consecutive games. Teams have scored 13 or more against the Dolphins in four of their last six.

Jets D/ST – At this point, you have to consider any D/ST going up against the Broncos. Teams have scored in the double-digits against Denver in eight straight games.

Dislikes

Kirk Cousins – Cousins has the potential to be matchup proof, but he has not lived up to expectations in four of his last six games. My model has him ending up as the QB14, though he could finish even lower if Morgan Moses and Trent Williams are unable to play.

Russell Wilson – Don’t get me wrong, you still have to start Wilson in season-long leagues – though you should not expect top-6 numbers from fantasy’s QB1. Only two quarterbacks have managed to score more than 15 against the Jaguars, and none have topped 17.3.

Kareem Hunt – Hunt has now failed to score more than 10.7 points in PPR leagues in five consecutive games, despite having some juicy matchups. I don’t view him as a top-20 running back, even against the Raiders.

Jonathan Stewart – Stewart’s only value is via touchdowns and the Vikings have only allowed three rushing touchdowns this year.

Tyreek Hill – Hill’s season high at Arrowhead is 43 receiving yards and he has yet to score there. He has a nice matchup against the Raiders, but I’m a big believer in trends.

Josh Doctson – Doctson will likely see a lot of Casey Hayward in this one. Avoid him.

Devin Funchess – Xavier Rhodes held Julio Jones to 24 yards last week, so Funchess will have his work cut out for him.

Rishard Matthews – If Matthews does return this week, he’ll likely draw Patrick Peterson.

Greg Olsen – Olsen hasn’t scored in more than a year and the Vikings have not allowed a touchdown to the position since week 5. This isn’t the week to insert him back into your lineups.

Dwayne Allen – Allen wasn’t targeted in week 5 when Gronk couldn’t play due to injury. He should get some targets this week, but not enough to make him a viable fantasy option.

  • Additional dislikes: Matt Ryan vs. NO, Andy Dalton vs. CHI, Broncos RBs vs. NYJ, Adrian Peterson vs. TEN, Doug Baldwin @ JAC, DeVante Parker vs. NE, Jermaine Kearse @ DEN.

Week 14 Rankings

My unofficial fantasypros accuracy rankings for week 13: Overall - 17th, QB - 21st, RB - 69th (nice), WR - 27th, TE - 21st, D/ST - 5th.

Please note: The rankings will be updated at 730pm (ET) on Thursday and 12pm (ET) on Sunday

 

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