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Fantasy Football 2017: Packers Predictions, Buy Low/Sell High, Like/Dislike, Week 5 and Rest of Season Rankings

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Fantasy Football 2017: Packers Predictions, Buy Low/Sell High, Like/Dislike, Week 5 and Rest of Season Rankings

Packers Predictions

1. Martellus Bennett reaches the end zone - Bennett has 3 red zone targets this year. It’s only a matter of time before Aaron Rodgers hits him for a score.

2. Jordy Nelson does not reach the end zone - Predicting that a player will not reach the end zone is rarely bold, but in Jordy’s case it is. Nelson has scored at least once in 24 of his last 35 full regular season games. There hasn’t been much sample size, but Dallas has been better against opposing #1 targets than they have against secondary targets. I expect Rodgers to spread the ball around in the red zone this week.

3. For the first time since week 7 of 2016, Randall Cobb totals 100+ yards - Montgomery will likely be limited, if he plays at all. Cobb has been fantastic this year and I expect him to get some looks out of the backfield this week; which raises the odds of him having a big game.

4. For the fourth time in five games, Aaron Rodgers throws for over 300 yards - The incredible 2011 season was the only instance where Rodgers started a season with four 300+ yard performances in his first five games. With the Packers offense likely to be even more one-dimensional this week, I expect him to do it again.

Rest of Season Rankings

 

 

Buy Low

Matt Ryan – From a fantasy perspective, Ryan has been a bust this year. The 2016 MVP has a bye in week 5 and many of his owners are probably eager to the jump ship. The Falcons face seven bottom-12 QB defenses between week 5 and week 16; which makes Ryan a great buy low candidate.

Doug Martin – Martin has been hit-or-miss in each season of his career. The reports out of Tampa before the season were all positive and he’s returning to a great situation. Buy some Muscle Hamster stock before it’s too late.

Joe Mixon – Mixon has seen 21 touches in both of his games since Cincinnati made the change at offense coordinator. It’s only a matter of time before the talented rookie makes those touches count.

Dez Bryant – Bryant had a brutal schedule to start the season, but it’s about to lighten up and he’s in a position to be a top-5 receiver for the rest of the year. Buy Bryant if you can get him at a WR2 price tag.

Amari Cooper – I’m not a huge Cooper fan, but after back-to-back sub 10-yard games and an injury to Derek Carr, he’s likely to be very cheap. He’s worth buying at that price just for the upside that he brings to the table.

T.Y. Hilton – I’m buying Hilton before Andrew Luck returns; he’s a low-end WR1 when that happens.

Devante Parker – The targets are there for Parker, and even Jay Cutler is bound to start completing some of those deep shots (maybe?).

Jordan Reed – Reed’s season-high in receiving yards is 48 and he has yet to score a touchdown, so he should be relatively cheap. Like Cooper, he’s worth buying due to his upside.

Sell High

Cam Newton – Newton doesn’t look like he’s fully healthy this year, and it’s tough to read too much into his big performance against the Patriots (their defense has been atrocious). If you can get decent value for Cam, pull the trigger.

Todd Gurley – Gurley has been incredible for owners through four weeks, but five of his next nine matchups are against teams that are bottom-8 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. His rest of season value lies closer to low-end RB1 than it does to his current top-3 value.

Jordan Howard – It looks Howard is going to be a volatile RB2 for the rest of the year. The Bears have the seventh hardest remaining schedule for running backs, and Tarik Cohen isn’t going anywhere. Sell him if you can get low-end RB1 value.

Larry Fitzgerald – Fitz has started a trend in recent years where he starts off a season hot but doesn’t finish strong. Last year he had just one touchdown and a single 100 yard performance in his final 10 games. In 2015, he didn’t top 70 yards in any of his final 6 games. He finished off the 2014 season with five straight sub-40 yard outputs and no scores in his last seven games. He’ll still have some big games this year, but sell him while his value is at its peak.

Keenan Allen – Allen scares me. It’s not just his injury history, but also his schedule (he still has to face the Giants, Broncos, Jaguars, Bills, Redskins and Chiefs) and the fact that Philip Rivers has more targets now than he ever had (and Mike Williams will be added to the mix soon). I’m selling Allen while his value is high.

Jason Witten – If you can still get something for Witten based off his first two games, go for it. He’s old and slow and doesn’t have a great schedule.

Like/Dislike

Like

Jameis Winston – No team has allowed more points to opposing quarterbacks than the Patriots.

Brian Hoyer – Hoyer has had three duds this year but gets a juicy matchup against the Colts. You can do worse in deeper leagues.

Doug Martin – Until further notice, the strategy is to start everyone against the Patriots.

Bilal Powell – Powell exploded for 191 total yards last week and should be the featured back again this week in Cleveland.

Devante Parker – Only the Patriots have allowed more points to receivers than the Titans.

Pierre Garcon – The Colts have allowed the 8th most points to receivers, and Garcon has had at least 8 targets in three of the 49ers four games this season.

Devin Funchess – Funchess is in a position to have a productive game with Benjamin occupying Darius Slay.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – ASJ has caught 9 passes over his last two games, and it’s always advisable to start tight ends against the Browns.

Dislike

Cam Newton – Detroit has been the 4th toughest team against opposing quarterbacks this year.

Alex Smith – Smith is a nice floor play, but his ceiling is a bit low on the road in Houston.

Jordan Howard – Howard has scored in each of his last two games, but I don’t expect that to happen again against a Vikings defense that has allowed just one touchdown to running backs this year.

LeSean McCoy – McCoy has yet to score in 2017 and he faces a Cincinnati team that has allowed the 6th least points to running backs on the season.

Keenan Allen – Janoris Jenkins is a scary matchup for any receiver.

Alshon Jeffrey – Patrick Peterson isn’t a fun matchup either.

Kelvin Benjamin – Benjamin has already had two duds this year, and he could very well have a third going up against Darius Slay.

Zach Ertz – The Cardinals have allowed the third least points to opposing tight ends.

 

Week 5 Rankings

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (4) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Dzehren's picture

Love the column. Joe Mixon or Latavius Murray at Chicago? And ADAM Thielan at Chicago vs Devon Funchess?

I like the Chicago matchup’s maybe??

dobber's picture

I think Mixon is a hold until he shows he can produce. I don't know that Murray is a much better play against the Bears in Chicago unless you think Trevathan's absence will make much difference.

I think Detroit/Carolina has shootout written all over it.

Elisha Twerski's picture

Thanks.
I'd go Mixon, he's the more talented back with the safer workload. The Bills have allowed the 10th most points to RBs over the last 2 weeks.

I like Funchess a lot this week with Slay covering Benjamin. His floor is lower than Thielen's, but his ceiling is higher.

Dzehren's picture

agree on Mixon. I hope det vs car is a shootout!!

Bears vs Vikes will be closer than people think IMO especially at Chicago

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