Extending Davante Adams

I agree with a reader from the UK who suggested that the Packers should be able reach a fair and equitable extension of Davante Adams while saving some salary cap space.  For this exercise, I shall assume that the Packers want to extend Adams and can agree on his overall compensation.  Bruce Irons in his recent article explained why the Packers might not extend Adams and readers added more reasons (pro and con) in the comment section.  

So, how might Adams's contract look?  The parameters seem pretty clear, other than Adams' overall amount of compensation.  Adams looks better than the $20 million per year players like Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper ($40M fully guaranteed), though both signed a year ago.  Michael Thomas signed two years ago ($19.25M with $34.5M fully guaranteed but really more - he has a rolling guarantee under which his 2022 base salary of $15.3M becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2021), so his AAV should be adjusted higher.  DeAndre Hopkins is listed at $27.5M AAV, but that is subject to some debate.  Arizona has an out so his deal really is for 3 years and $60.1M.  When he was traded he had three years remaining that paid him almost $40M.  If Hopkins plays out the contract he will earn $94M over 5 years, or about $18.8M per year.  Julio Jones earns $22M AAV, with a staggering $64M of his $66M extension fully guaranteed.  I will use a $22M AAV for Adams: it could be higher but it could easily be less.

Here are the parameters and some goals of the Packers:

  • Reduce Adams' salary cap number for 2021
  • Limit Adams' combined salary cap numbers for 2021 and 2022
  • 4-year extension (ages 30 to 33 for Adams)
  • Provide a reasonable out after three additional seasons
  • Adams is scheduled to receive $13.25M in cash for 2021
Yr Base SB Opt GA W/O Cap Dead Save Cash
21 1.075M 5.835M   .5M .5M 7.91M     13.25M
22 4.9M 2.235M 7M .75M .5M 15.385M 36.94M -21.55M 34.15M
23 13.7M 2.235M 7M .75M .5M 24.185M 27.705M -3.52M 14.95M
3 years, $62.35M, with $18.47M dead
24 17.0M 2.235M 7M .75M .5M 27.485M 18.47M +9.015M 18.25M
25 19.337M 2.235M 7M .75M .5M 29.822M 9.235M +20.587M 20.587M
  56.012M 14.775M   3.5M 2.5M 104.787M     101.187M

Adams receives an $11.175 signing bonus in 2021, the minimum base salary plus the same game active and workout bonuses so that he receives $13.25M in cash as previously scheduled for 2021.  The new signing bonus proration is $2.235M per year, shown above as $5.835M in 2021 due to a pre-existing proration of $3.6M.  That saves $8.88M on the 2021 salary cap, a useful amount since it means that the Packers would not have to disturb the contracts of Rodgers or Lowry if they are disinclined to do so.

I see no reason why Adams should not expect a substantial signing bonus in line with the $30M bonus Bakhtiari received.  Here, he would receive a $28M option bonus in 2021 ($7M prorations), which would be guaranteed.  The primary benefits of this structure are the low cap hits in general early in the contract, particularly in 2021 and 2022 which feature a combined cap hit of just $23.295M for the first two seasons. At present, Adams' cap number is $16.787M.

Here is a more traditional structure:

Yr Base SB GA W/O Cap Dead Save
21 1.075M 9.6M .5M .5M 11.675M    
22 6.468M 6M .75M .75M 13.968M 24M  
23 14.616M 6M .75M .75M 22.116M 18M +4.116M
3 years, $56.159M, with $12M dead
24 20.436M 6M .75M .75M 27.936M 12M +15.936M
25 21.6M 6M .75M .75M 29..1 6M +$23.1M
  $64.195M $33.6M 3.5M 3.5M 104.795M    

This looks a lot better but I do not know if Adams would sign it because it is light on cash flow (see table below).  This contract pays Adams $6M less than the contract above in the critical first three years.  It is a covid year, yet elite players are still getting paid, and fairly normally.  It generates just $5.112M in cap savings this year, meaning the Packers still have to find another $2.5M in cap savings, more if the team wants to sign a September cap casualty.  Adams' two-year cap numbers would total $25.64M, but if I have to add $6M in cash to the first three years (at least it can be subtracted it from the last two years), the two-year combined cap number total climbs higher.  The six million could be added to the signing bonus, added as a roster bonus in 2022 or 2023 (if the agent agrees), or by adding $2 million to each base salary for 2021 through 2023.  

A word about cash flow and the progression of the percentage of AAV accounted for in each season by the Packers in other large contracts.  Cash flow (CF) is the running or cumulative percentage of the total value of the contract earned by the the player by year.  The next number is percentage of AAV in each season.  Here are those numbers for the original contracts (not the recently restructured deals) for Preston and ZaDarius Smith, plus Amos and the two above proposed for Adams:

  P. Smith A. Amos Z. Smith A. Adams #1 A. Adams Trad.
  C.F. % AAV C. F. % AAV C. F. % AAV C. F. % AAV C. F. % AAV
Yr. 1 34.6% 46% 39.2% 57% 33.7% 44% 13.09% 37.7% 31.69% 55.71%
Yr. 2 52.88% 104% 57.8% 107% 52.65% 104% 46.84% 73.41% 39.57% 66.65%
Yr. 3 75.96% 123% 78.0% 115% 78.0% 133% 61.61% 115% 55.49% 105%
Yr. 4 100% 127% 100% 120% 100% 119% 79.65% 131% 77.17% 133%
Yr. 5             100% 142% 100% 139%

As can be seen, the cash flow lags in the traditional contract structure for Adams.  However, it is very important to players.  Consider this quote from an article in Overthecap: "most contracts of three years or more fail to last beyond two seasons, with the odds of the contract being terminated after just one season being greater than the contract being fully completed."

It is possible that Adams believes that he is the best wide receiver in the NFL and that the highest paid receivers $27.5M AAV.  That would be a problem, and there may be other issues.  Overall, it seems to me that it should be possible to reach an agreement that is fair to Davante Adams and one that the Packers can live with.

 

NFL Categories: 
6 points

Comments (40)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2021 at 06:34 am

I favor extending Adams. He is the WR who gets either double coverage or when the safety is stressed the safety breaks to help on Adams. He helps make the chunk plays possible for others when he isn't creating them himself. Plus, he is a good chain mover as well. Some receivers can have a big year scoring TDs, but Adams has a pretty consistent history of catching TD passes.

Assuming Adams and the Packers both want to extend, I think there is a middle ground that can be reached. Oh well, I think there is going to be some waiting before fans see what happens.

+ REPLY
3 points
3
0
dobber's picture

April 19, 2021 at 08:44 am

Thanks, TGR, for putting these articles together. It shows your nuanced understanding of the cap and an ability to relate from a couple particular starting points what could be possible. Most of us don't come anywhere near this understanding, even though we all have opinions on what the Packers should do. I learn something more from each of these articles.

Cheers!

+ REPLY
2 points
2
0
Coldworld's picture

April 19, 2021 at 10:49 am

The one aspect I’m not clear about is where the cap money flows from for the seven figure signing bonus during 2021? I understand that this would be spread out, but I’m still not seeing the available leeway.

PS. I think you answered this further on, in replies, TGR. It is dependent on further release of cap from other sources. That means that at this point the deal outlined is not practical until something else moves, if I understand correctly.

Maybe we can trade Lowry for a pick ... perchance to dream.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2021 at 12:47 pm

I don't understand the question. There is an 11.175M signing bonus (strictly speaking, that's 8 figures) paid in 2021 so GB can reduce his base from $12.25M to the minimum of $1.075M (a difference of $11.175M). So the proration of $2.235 plus the base + the GA and W/O of $1M and the old proration of $3.6M are the only things that count against the cap in 2021 and that = $7.91M instead of $16.787M. Saves $8.877M.

The other is an option bonus in 2022 for $28M that will be prorated over the remaining 4 years at $7M/season. It could be a guaranteed roster bonus that the Packers would almost certainly convert most or all of to a signing bonus.

The first deal with $8.877 (I rounded to $8.88M) is enough cap space if the Packers don't want to sign an outside FA. Probably would suffice barring horrible luck. The traditional contract doesn't provide enough cap savings, so they'd have to do something with Lowry or AR (or some other source I didn't think of).

If GB has decided not to extend Davante, would you trade him now for a first-round pick in 2021? How about pick 43? Or would you keep Adams and see what happens (hard to see GB franchising Adams in 2022). Perhaps something makes him re-signable, IDK. Otherwise, GB probably gets a 3rd round comp in 2023.

I am torn in that situation.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Bearmeat's picture

April 19, 2021 at 11:56 am

Key words: "Assuming Adams..." GB will want to extend, but why would Adams? He can make BIG money next offseason, and GB can't afford to franchise him. His All world QB might be gone after 21 as well...

I think there is a non-zero percent chance that Adams and ARod are both gone after next year.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2021 at 12:32 pm

Risk vs. Reward. He can bet on himself and/or get a disability policy for what, $20M? $40M? I've always wanted to know how much those policies cost but never got an inkling.

Or he can take contract one with $39.175M guaranteed at signing or the traditional contract with a measly $30M fully guaranteed (or whatever the Packers might decide to offer).

I think it unlikely, but I agree that it is a non-zero chance.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
stockholder's picture

April 19, 2021 at 07:05 am

I want to extend Adams. But my thinking he is going to be over-paid and not used. Adams won't have Arron Rodgers. And others will be drafted for Love and the future. We saw it with Donald Driver. The pay didn't match the use. And as much as Adams should be a packer for Life. I just don't see that happening. Why? The cap can't handle the consequences.

+ REPLY
-1 points
3
4
13TimeChamps's picture

April 19, 2021 at 03:13 pm

"Adams won't have Arron Rodgers."

Yeah, but he might still have AARON Rodgers. The guy has only been on the team since '05. Might want to learn how to spell his name at some point.

+ REPLY
-1 points
3
4
PF4L's picture

April 19, 2021 at 04:51 pm

Finally....

A Grammar cop to the rescue!!

My Hero

+ REPLY
-2 points
1
3
13TimeChamps's picture

April 19, 2021 at 05:08 pm

It has nothing to do with grammar. It has to do with respect. This guy intentionally and repeatedly misspells Rodger's first name. Try to keep up.

+ REPLY
1 points
2
1
PF4L's picture

April 19, 2021 at 05:33 pm

So...your beef is that he intentionally does it?

You think maybe he's pushing your buttons because you get upset?

Sooner or later you might want to realize you have zero control over
what other commenters post and pretending you do makes you look like a fool.

He who angers you, controls you.

I think maybe you should just "let it go" and do something constructive, like hop on your big wheel and go down and get the mail.

+ REPLY
-2 points
1
3
13TimeChamps's picture

April 19, 2021 at 06:42 pm

I thought you were the champion of being able to comment on whatever we want to comment on....you know....unlike those folks in North Korea. I'm just taking your advice Oh Enlightened One.

Sounds like I anger you quite a bit and push your buttons. And from a child who gets his mail on his big wheel. Oh the irony!

+ REPLY
0 points
1
1
PF4L's picture

April 19, 2021 at 06:47 pm

Just be careful....don't take it out on the street.

Safety first my friend.

+ REPLY
-2 points
0
2
13TimeChamps's picture

April 19, 2021 at 07:08 pm

The difference between you and I.

I've posted my feelings on what I perceived to be disrespectful to Rodgers. Now I'll move on to other topics.

Then there's you. Remind us again for the 146th time your views about the 2020 draft. Can't wait. Thanks in advance!!

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
PF4L's picture

April 19, 2021 at 10:24 pm

Look whose stalking....

I told you....tell your problems to Jesus, he cares....i don't

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
PF4L's picture

April 19, 2021 at 10:53 pm

13TimeChamps

April 19, 2021 at 07:08 pm

The difference between you and I.

I've posted my feelings..................
**********************

Blah blah blah blah

NOBODY cares......now go brush your teeth.

+ REPLY
-2 points
0
2
RCPackerFan's picture

April 19, 2021 at 07:24 am

I agree with you TGR. I am in favor of extending Adams for the right price.

Adams is a guy that the older he gets I don't see much of a drop off. His style of play isn't based on speed. He is a route running guru and that won't change that much as he gets older.

What GB needs though is a true threat opposite of him. MVS is the deep threat, but really hasn't developed the underneath game to be a consistent number 2. He is a big time play maker though. Lazard I really like, and does a lot of dirty work as a WR, but last year as his first full year with GB, missed a bunch of games. Beyond those 2 guys we have a lot of question marks. I like EQ, but he has to step up this offseason. And I do not want to rely on him to be the guy, I want him to earn it. I'm curious to see what we have in Funchess. He took the year off, so it will be interesting to see what he does for the team this year.

We have a lot of size in our WR group. We could really use the fast quick twitch type of WR. There are a few of those guys in the draft. Perhaps one that could return kicks/punts and be able to be a threat in motion. If they don't draft a guy perhaps they bring back Austin or Ervin. But they need a guy to fill that role.

+ REPLY
0 points
1
1
Coldworld's picture

April 19, 2021 at 10:32 am

The only concern would be that his quick feet slow, limiting his ability to shed his man. This is something that often does decline earlier.

I’d still bet on him being valuable in the last year, but not that valuable. However, if the new TV deal goes through with a jump in revenue, such a contract may be far from extraordinary by then.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Archie's picture

April 19, 2021 at 10:42 am

"....We have a lot of size in our WR group. We could really use the fast quick twitch type of WR. There are a few of those guys in the draft. Perhaps one that could return kicks/punts and be able to be a threat in motion. If they don't draft a guy perhaps they bring back Austin or Ervin. But they need a guy to fill that role...."

I wholeheartedly agree and Elijah Moore is that guy. And, he might be available in R2 with a trade down (R1-->R2) or trade up (R2 --> higher R2).

Adams will be a tough contract to fit under the cap unless they let AR go after 2021. The sad truth of the matter is this team is cap poor till AR moves on. Even with AR gone, things will be tight for Adams, Alexander, Savage, Jenkins and Gary. Soon we will have 10 guys accounting for close to 100% of cap. Can't be done. Looks like we will be forced to shed lots of contracts end of 2021 e.g., Turner, Amos, P Smith, Z Smith?, Tonyan? plus AR. Otherwise I just can't see how we make the cap number in 2022. So Gutey s running them back for one more year and then he begins to blow it up and transition to Love et. al. I can accept AR having to leave but losing Adams too would really hurt. Adams would make a perfect security blanket for Love during his first few years as a starter.

+ REPLY
-1 points
0
1
geronamaker's picture

April 19, 2021 at 07:59 am

I'm all for extending Adams as long as we create enough cap space in 2021 to sign Hurst or Richardson or some other waived DL.

I don't understand the notion that Adams will not be beneficial in the future without Rodgers at QB. First, Rodgers may still be the QB in 22 and 23 if he continues to play lights out in 21 and Love shows the coaches he's not ready to start. Although I rate the possibility of Rodgers remaining in 22 at less than 50%, or about the same odds as GB winning it all in 21....with the caveat that Love is ready after two years....

Going all in for 2021 to me means adding a solid DL through free agency and drafting/developing at CB, ILB and WR.

+ REPLY
3 points
3
0
dobber's picture

April 19, 2021 at 09:16 am

I think the next cut/extension will be there to generate room to sign rookies and have an operating budget for the practice squad and in-season additions. If one of those guys is brought in--and don't get me wrong, the Packers could really use a guy like Richardson--I suspect it will take a little more than an Adams extension to make the finances, in sum, go.

+ REPLY
3 points
3
0
Coldworld's picture

April 19, 2021 at 10:40 am

Much as I want another disruptive DL who can also stop the run, I’m yet to find any evidence to support believing that is what Barry wants.

In this Packers organization, there is zero chance we sign a high cost one of Barry/LaFleur don’t want that type of player. Those two don’t report to Gute, they all report to Murphy. That was in part to stop the roster building drifting out of synch with the coaches. It would be a no help bringing in Superman if we didn’t play him.

Is Barry really going to throw away the Pettine line strategy when it looks close to the one he’s coming from? I hope so, fervently but sadly, not confidently.

+ REPLY
2 points
2
0
flackcatcher's picture

April 19, 2021 at 03:29 pm

Barry reports to Lafleur. Where did you get the idea he reports to Murphy. That was part of the point in Pettine going. So Lafleur could have his own man as HC. I'm open to any evidence showing Murphy is acting in his role in overseeing Gutekunst front office operations. There is nothing in the media for months outside a couple of puff pieces on Murphy, which did not answer if he still had a voice in the front office.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
geronamaker's picture

April 20, 2021 at 09:34 pm

dobber - I totally agree they would need to do something with Rodgers contract to free up money to pay Richardson.

Hurst is closer to being doable after working out Davante's extension which I also believe they will do.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
HarryHodag's picture

April 19, 2021 at 08:02 am

One thing to consider is Adams might see his future linked to Aaron Rodgers. He might not want to hang around to go through a new QB's learning curve. He's going to get paid either way.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
dobber's picture

April 19, 2021 at 08:45 am

It always takes two to tango...

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
TarynsEyes's picture

April 19, 2021 at 10:16 am

Yes it does, but I can assure you that Adams won't be sitting on the bench seat with many others waiting/hoping to be asked to dance. His dance card will be filled with suitors the moment they believe him to be available, and that's when the Packers will be seen sitting alone on the bench wondering what happened.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
BruceIrons's picture

April 19, 2021 at 08:17 am

I wonder if the Packers would extend Adams without looking for any 2021 cap relief.

They've moved a lot of cap hits out already. If they re-sign him, they may want to return to a pay-as-you-go model that would give them more space and flexibility in the future.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2021 at 08:45 am

Packers need to generate another $7M or so if they want to sign their draft picks, the PS, and pay for the 52nd and 53rd contracts, with a few million as a cushion to pay for IR and PUP.

Cap relief has to come from somewhere. The remaining obvious candidates are Adams, AR, and Lowry. The other options are pretty much tapped out.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
BJP's picture

April 19, 2021 at 08:19 am

R.E.L.A.X.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2021 at 08:54 am

I am relaxed. If GB wants Davante, it looks to me like there should be no problem finding a reasonable deal. If they don't, then nothing needs to be done. [I haven't decided what I think GB should do if they don't want to extend Adams. I really want to take a shot at the trophy this year, but if they can get a first or maybe even a high second for Adams in 2021 rather than a 3rd round comp pick in 2023, I'd have to think about that.]

GB doesn't need to generate cap space until late August or September unless they want to sign a FA. They have enough (barely) to sign their draft picks.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2021 at 09:07 am

I think we should play the season. We can decide what we want to do with all of our receivers then.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2021 at 09:41 am

Inertia has consequences. GB still needs cap space. Has to come from somebody. If not Adams, and not AR, Lowry even on a post-June ain't quite enough.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2021 at 11:34 am

I am confident the 1265 Brass knows what cap space they need. The Packers are sending strong signals that they’re working for maximum flexibility after this season....Super Bowl or bust. Many of our big dollar guys might be traded or cut or not resigned.

At this point, sure, it’d be nice to keep Adams. But what if he misses 4 games? 7 games? Takes a serious injury?

Let’s play the season.

Xxxxxxxxx. Xxxxxxxxx.

+ REPLY
2 points
2
0
murf7777's picture

April 19, 2021 at 09:23 am

I think it depends on what they do with Rodgers. If they extend Rodgers I’m in favor of extending Adams. I hope this is the Packers decision. Otherwise, if they are going to move on from Rodgers I’d be in favor of a full rebuild and take a 3rd round compensatory draft pick. If they are unsure of what they want to do with Rodgers then wait till year end and make decisions at that time.

+ REPLY
0 points
1
1
flackcatcher's picture

April 19, 2021 at 03:54 pm

Man I hate writing this. It all comes down to when the Packers hit the Cap Wall. TGR is right that the Packers have mangled their salary structure for this year and possibility the next. The Packers have set up their salary to take one massive Cap hit, and either reload, or more likely do a soft rebuild. Question is when. One thing is for sure. Gutekunst did not make this decision on his own. With the future of the organization at stake, Ball, Murphy had their say and this was probably kicked up to the Executive Committee to decide in their role as owner of the Packers.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2021 at 09:29 am

I meant to include the #s for Turner's deal. Here they are:

C.F. / % AAV
38.12/60.71
58.39/112
79.79/117
100%/112

Kind of a curious structure. He has the highest % of the AAV for his first season (Amos is close but both are much higher than the Smiths), and his 2nd year % of AAV is strong. That suggests to me anyway that the Packers wanted a two-year out. OTOH, the cash flow is very strong - ditto for Amos. Funny that GB treated Turner and Amos similarly and the Smiths rather differently.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Coldworld's picture

April 19, 2021 at 10:45 am

If I recall, Turner was being chased by at least Denver, which may have been a factor. Just guessing that the Smiths were happy enough with the overall money to be flexible on that.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
Packers0808's picture

April 19, 2021 at 02:26 pm

No question about it Adams and Rodgers will be a team for at the least next 2-3 seasons! Period. Packers are not that stupid to break up a winning combo. All depends on what the 2022 cap is as long as everyone is looking forward!

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
wildbill's picture

April 19, 2021 at 06:19 pm

Love Adams but we won every game he missed in the last two years if I remember correctly. And how many times has Rodgers ignored wide open people and tried to force the ball to Adams? IMO no receiver is worth 20 million a year. All the mentioned high price WRs haven’t even been to a super bowl let alone won one. Get two 10 million a year guys and we will be fine with MLF’s offense. Oops forgot the Falcon loss.. but still

+ REPLY
1 points
2
1

Log in to comment and more!

Not a member yet? Join free.

If you have already commented on Cheesehead TV in the past, we've created an account for you. Just verify your email, set a password and you're golden.