Drew Brees Serves As A Cautionary Tale To Packers

The Packers are at a crossroads and need to decide how they want to proceed. The approach the Saints took with Drew Brees could be a good case study.  

Last week, I examined the difficult situation the Packers are in with Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers have a lot to consider in how they handle it and how they choose to move forward.

Should they make a big push to appease their star quarterback? Should they commit long-term with big money and try win with an aging superstar?

Some call for the team to go "all in" while they still (technically) have an MVP quarterback on their roster.

The team appears to be considering all options. When looking at the best way to proceed, they no doubt are studying the situation the Saints are currently in to see what they can learn.

In 2016, the Saints had an aging superstar quarterback. They were at a crossroads and needed to decide how they wanted to proceed.

Drew Brees, at age 37 (the same age Aaron Rodgers is right now), led the NFL with 5,208 passing yards and also threw for 37 touchdowns. It was an impressive season (for comparison, Aaron Rodgers's personal best was 4,643 in 2011).

Brees was playing as well as he ever had and went to the Pro Bowl after averaging 326 yards per game.

Faced with a similar (though not exactly the same) situation as the Packers are in, the Saints decided to go "all in" around Brees.

Over the next four years, New Orleans made a bold draft move to get Marcus Davenport and brought in a ton of free agents, including James Laurinitis, Nick Fairley,  AJ Klein, Larry Warford, Ted Ginn, Adrian Peterson, Nick Easton, Demario Davis, Ben Watson, Malcolm Brown, and Jared Cook.

It was expensive. Everyone knew they were pushing out salary cap hits and kicking the can down the road, but fans were excited because they were going "all in" - they were giving their aging star quarterback help at the end of his career.

The problem was that their aging quarterback was, well... aging.

Sure, he pumped out stats at 37, but then a funny thing happened: age caught up to his productivity.

After averaging 326 yards per game at age 37, his average yards per game for the next four years were 271, 261, 271, and finally 245 last season. He never even came within 50 yards per game of that average again.

After starting all 16 games at age 37, and missing only 1 game due to injury in his first 12 seasons with the Saints, he missed 10 games over his last 3 seasons

After 9 years in a row with 30 or more TDs, he only hit that mark once in his last 4 seasons.

Brees showed no signs of slowing down before age 37, so the team kept spending to surround him with talent.

And then... he slowed down.

But it's not just about stats. Anyone who watched his final games saw a rag-armed Drew Brees tossing short passes, which defenses just plain no longer feared.

He was nowhere near the quarterback he was at age 37.

Now he's retired and the team is a smoldering crater.

After pushing out salaries year after year to try to beef up their roster for a short-term push, things have finally caught up to them.

They couldn't afford to re-sign starters like Trey Hendrickson and Sheldon Rankins this past offseason. They actually had to cut starters Jared Cook, Janoris Jenkins, Emmanuel Sanders, and Nick Easton just to get under the cap. They had traded a 5th round draft pick for Kwon Alexander midseason and they had to cut him this offseason, too. They even had to cut their punter, Thomas Morstead. Their punter! Their salary cap was so jacked up, they had to cut their punter!  

They are dead last in the NFL in cap space right now and they're nearly $10M over the cap for next year (according to Spotrac.com).

Now, they have free agents coming up after this season- key plays like Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore and both starting tackles in Terran Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. In addition to that, they have a slew of contracts loaded with void years that will only make things worse. And all this happening in the shadow of a decreased salary cap that won't be saved by the new tv deal until 2023.

To top it all off, they're planning to have Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill battle it out in training camp to be the new starting quarterback this year. Oh by the way, both of them will be free agents after the season, too, since both of their contracts contain automatic void years.

It's not pretty for the Saints.
 
They have no cap space, paid for their years of aggressive spending by cutting a ton of starters, and now have a huge question mark at quarterback.

Sure, it would totally be worth it if they won a Super Bowl. Everyone says they'd gladly trade a few years of misery and fallout if they went all in and won a Super Bowl.

But what happens when you mortgage the future, use all your resources to get help for your quarterback... and then don't win the Super Bowl?

Then you're left with flailing franchise and nothing to show for it except impending years of irrelevance.

What if, instead of bringing on a retread draft bust and a gimmick tight end to compete for the starting quarterback job, they would have used a pick on a quarterback that they could develop for the future?

Would that have been a better approach?

What if they managed their team to be competitive in the short-term, while also investing in the future of the team?

Would that have worked out better? Would it have given them options?

It appears that the Packers have given themselves options and now need to choose which path they want to take.

If they use the Saints as a case study, the answer becomes clear.

 

 

Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @PackersForTheWn.

 

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25 points

Comments (149)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
HarryHodag's picture

May 09, 2021 at 11:06 am

Brilliant analysis. I much appreciate showing the Rodgers loyalists that the Packers matter more than any one player.

36 points
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SterlingSharpe's picture

May 09, 2021 at 04:04 pm

Well said Harold.

People forget: the Packers "weapons" Davante, Jones, & Rodgers himself made some key mistakes against Tampa Bay that kept the TEAM from the Super Bowl. The TEAM was build to win a Super Bowl. And probably would have had those mistakes by those stars not occurred.
Or had Kevin King, not Agent 69, had gone down in practice.

8 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 01:55 am

I hated the article, hated the factual omissions, and disagree with your comment.

Just thought I'd comment to keep myself popular.

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HankScorpio's picture

May 10, 2021 at 05:02 am

What factual omissions are you referring to? The ones I noticed...

The Packers reached that crossroads the day they lost to TB. And took the same path the Saints took. Which stands to reason since the guy that got that Ball rolling in New Orleans is now running the cap for the Packers. Of course I mean Russ Ball. Everyone and their brother saw this day coming for N.O. The Packers have $3 mil committed to the 2022 through 2025 cap under void years for Kevin King, Billy Turner, Mason Crosby and Adrian Amos. That's not debilitating yet. But Rome was not built in one day.

The other big thing I noticed is that the article refers to a bunch of 2nd tier FA signings as key to the Saints push. Wrong. It was an incredible 2017 draft class that included Lattimore, Ramczyck and Kamara. Had they stuck with the philosophy of building through the draft, that list of names would be shorter, the cap healthier and performance largely unaffected. But they went right back to shrinking their draft class in order to "target quality". When you're talking the back half of the 53 man roster, you want to avoid FA at all costs. Sure, the floor is higher, along with the cost. But not that much higher and the ceiling is so much lower. Just one rook being a hit changes everything....like Kamara did. All of them being "average" might be a small performance hit. But not a major one.

The next big thing I noticed was that the Saints take heat for the same thing the Packers are taking heat...not providing their aging HoF QB with pass catching talent. Both teams helped their QB by protecting him with good OL talent and shifting to a more RB-centric attack. So while the author says they went "all in" with Brees, those same knocks of "they did nothing to help him" exist, depending on how you view it.

If you observed other omissions, please don't hit and run. Go ahead and list them.

5 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 11, 2021 at 05:21 am

I didn't write it, but noticed the lack of draft success by NO lately. 2017 was excellent. Don't forget NO draft Trey Hendrickson (RDE with 13.5 sacks last year) along with Kamara, Ramczyck, and Lattimore. Time to go all in when you have that kind of draft.

2020 saw Cesar Ruiz, a center they moved to OG with indifferent success. Still, he was a rookie. Nobody else. 2019 had Erik McCoy, a center (a fine player, which made taking Ruiz a little bit of a head-scratcher). Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in the 4th was okay though meh. Davenport in 2018 has been okay, but not worth two firsts. TreQuan Smith in the 3rd is okay as a 3rd or better a 4th WR.

Look at dobber's post below. NO paid Demario Davis, Jenoris Jenkins and NT Malcom Brown and they were worth every penny. Their D got much, much better and needed the FAs. Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Latavius Murray (~1300 yrds rushing over 2 seasons) were important since not much draft help in a while on offense.

I wrote below about the slight to Brees. He was good and pretty cheap. Only 8 downvotes - well there is still time to hit double digits.

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Turophile's picture

May 10, 2021 at 04:37 am

This season, I expect Rodgers to stay. However, next season is more on a knife-edge. They could trade him before or after the June 1st season rollover, or (if Love isn't panning out) they could keep him while they try again for another starter-level QB).

All this hinges on Rodgers being willing to play. Refusing to play costs him a huge chunk of money, but he is already a very rich man. Playing but not trying is even worse, but I don't think he will do that.

4 points
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EricinGB's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:47 am

Brilliant?? Wow! Packers PR now appear to be floating out a Rodgers/Brees comparison as a cautionary tale. It is a comparison suggesting performance decline with age, and comparing Rodgers to Brees seems to be something a Packers proxie is attempting to promote. Comparing one of the strongest passing arms (per NFL experts) against arguably one of the weakest arms with rotator cuff issues suggest this is what the Packers were thinking when they decided to draft Rodgers replacement giving up a 1st and a 4th in 2020 to do so. The only way the 2020 and 2021 drafts make sense is if the Packers intended to replace Rodgers with their first round QB as planned in 2022 and trade Aaron Rodgers for "valuable" draft picks while expecting the offensive line replacements hold up while Rodgers' (expected?) 2021 performance slides to validate the stratregy...but Rodgers has something to say too...fresh of an MVP season, we are now seeing the downside to this strategy...alienating and losing Rodgers a year earlier than "planned" with his 2021 preformance suggesting the likelyhood Rodgers continues to play at an NFL pro-bowl level through 2025. Without Rodgers, Packers risk surrendering supremacy in the NFC division during the same period... time will tell if what we are really witnessing is a cautionary tale on how not to manage an NFL franchise moving forward.

-4 points
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HarryHodag's picture

May 10, 2021 at 09:30 am

So your point is...give Aaron Rodgers anything he wants or the Packers are done.
Tell that to the All-Pros and Pro Bowlers that populate the team.

The point of the article, apparently you missed, is the Packers well could be mortgaging the team's future to meet the whims of one player.

Please show all how team is spelled with an "I".

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

May 09, 2021 at 11:13 am

Very much agree. Brady is an outlier not a new norm. He also wasn’t actually terribly good as a QB last year.

This is why it’s a fair question to ask whether it would be wiser to let Rodgers go now if he insists than give him 3 or more years of guarantees.

We don’t know if the window has closed, or when it will do, but Brees and the Saints illustrate the carnage if one commits too long.

A cautionary tale that is needed.

36 points
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HankScorpio's picture

May 10, 2021 at 05:13 am

Brady is an outlier for sure. Using him as any example is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

It would be painful to watch Rodgers play in another uniform. But at the end of the day, if he's having these doubts now, the chances of 2019 Average QB playing this year are an order of magnitude higher than 2020 MVP QB.

I just hope the deal picks the young talent off the destination roster instead of draft picks. I expect Rodgers will find the motivation he's lacking in GB and will perform more like 2020 guy than 2019 guy. So they will be later picks in the order. IOWs, I'm bracing for another Favre situation to play out. It stuck in my craw hard that his best season was that 2nd to last one in Minny. Right up until their season ended the same way his final season in GB ended---on a bad pick. It would ease the sting if it happened in Denver. And be harder to replicate if Jerry Jeudy was part of the trade compensation, which would in turn help Jordan Love as he finds his footing in the NFL.

4 points
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jaxpackfan's picture

May 09, 2021 at 11:14 am

That is a sobering example. I would prefer to have a potential bite at the apple every year (like the Packers), rather than "go all in", fail and then have terrible seasons as a reward.

23 points
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packerdoc's picture

May 09, 2021 at 11:16 am

And.... Brees was a model citizen. A Rod doesn’t even want to be here and is acting like a diva. Time to let him go.

9 points
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Minniman's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:55 pm

First time poster I see - A cynic might inquire just how the weather is in Minneapolis, Detroit or Chicago?

I’ve been satisfying a curiosity and visiting a few of the major fan sites for GB’s NFC North rivals - they seem the happiest and most upbeat that they’ve been in 25 years!

Not sure that I agree with your assessment. Sure, his stake in the Bucks is a shrewd business move, but I don’t doubt that it’s not anchored in an affinity for the area.

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dobber's picture

May 09, 2021 at 04:03 pm

They might be happy and upbeat, but those fans are s#!tting their pants worried that the Packers have guessed right with Jordan Love and he'll own their asses for the next 12+ years.

14 points
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Minniman's picture

May 09, 2021 at 05:51 pm

Dobber....... I too hope that they've guessed right...... I'll take an heir-apparent situation any day!

I'm so looking forward to the pre-season games to at least see Jordan Love in action.

9 points
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SanLobo's picture

May 09, 2021 at 06:07 pm

Love is not ready. If Love was ready the GB top 3 would not be flying out to California asking Rodgers to come back. Aaron Rodgers knows Love is not ready as well, if Love was ready Rodgers would have no leverage. Love may be a great QB someday, but probably not in 2021.

1 points
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croatpackfan's picture

May 10, 2021 at 06:49 am

If Jordan Love is not ready (I will add "completely, but there is very clear indication that he will be soon!") why Aaron Rodgers are so intensive and demanding on contract that will prevent Packers to release him in the next 5 or more years.

I'm not saying that JL is new HOF QB. I just say that reasons why Aaron Rodgers wants completely guaranteed money may be what I wrote in first paragraph... More likely than not!

Do not forget that coaches and Aaron and other players knows much better who is Jordan Love than any of the fans and reporters that commenting here...

So, JL can be bust, but AR reaction shows that maybe he was excellent pick. We will learn that very soon, I think...

0 points
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SanLobo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 09:34 am

Being “not ready” and being a bust are two different things. Only time will tell how we will view Love as a starting NFL QB. Rodgers took three years before GB decided he was ready to start and a year starting to be excellent. Rodgers has leverage now because of where he knows (and he knows) how ready Love is to take the reigns of the team. There is no disrespect to Love in this statement. Love could someday be a great QB. It depends on how he is able to incorporate the offense into his head, his discipline in preparation for each season and game, his intellectual capacity and his cognitive agility...can he make the game slow down in his head enough to make the right decisions on the field.
In the meantime, we are where we are and it appears based on how management is reacting, Love is not ready.

0 points
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Point-Packer's picture

May 10, 2021 at 03:02 pm

Based on the odds, that scenario is not where you want to put your money.

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Point-Packer's picture

May 10, 2021 at 12:10 pm

And Aaron Rodgers isn't a model citizen because he is in a contractual disagreement with his employer? I have a few parking tickets I haven't paid, speeding tickets, etc. I must be a borderline felon. #StupidComment

0 points
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dobber's picture

May 09, 2021 at 11:30 am

I don't think the QB passing yards tell the whole story, here, as Brees inargubly threw for fewer yards, but the run game in N'awlins ramped up in support with Mark Ingram running well in 2016-17, and Alvin Kamara arriving on the scene just after that.

2016 Total offense: 1st, Passing: 1st, Rushing: 16th, games played by Brees: 16
2017 Total offense: 2nd, Passing: 5th, Rushing: 5th, games: 16
2018 Total offense: 8th, Passing: 12th, Rushing: 6th, games: 15
2019 Total offense: 9th, Passing: 7th, Rushing: 16th, games: 11
2020 Total offense: 12th, Passing: 19th, Rushing: 6th, games: 12

2016 Total defense: 27th
2017 Total defense: 17th
2018 Total defense: 14th
2019 Total defense: 11th
2020 Total defense: 4th

I think the cautionary tale, too, lies in the fact that Brees' injury situation--as a QB who was never terribly mobile--became increasingly problematic to go with his pop-gun arm. Even though the investments on defense were paying off, the offense was increasingly erratic, scattering anemic performances among prolific ones.

The bottom line is that the Saints, even with teams that were viewed as annual SB contenders and won their division regularly with strong regular season records, laid an egg annually in the playoffs. Dumb things derailed that team...they failed to make plays in the playoffs. Sometimes they failed to show up. The bottom line being this team "couldn't get over the hump". Even though it appeared that they did all the right things to support an aging QB: better defense, "run more/pass less", annually good-to-great OL, and so on, it didn't happen to the point that you could bet on the Saints to implode in the playoffs.

So the question is: is that Brees? Is that bad coaching? Is it bad luck? The parallels HERE between the Saints and the Packers are striking...and it makes you ask whether a fundamental retooling is overdue.

21 points
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Bearmeat's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:04 pm

I think the real answer to your question is: Crazy shit happens in a single elimination tournament.

I'd say that eggs were laid, but they also had terrible luck at times. Tom Brady is the ONLY QB in the past 20 years who wins in January with any regularly, and he does it based on strong defense, coaching, and frankly, taking 25m less than other QBs on the reg. Oh, and let's not forget reffing help.

19 points
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Gravedigger93's picture

May 09, 2021 at 09:07 pm

And he cheats...dont forget that. Probably helps when games are razor close.

4 points
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Oppy's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:41 pm

I agree with your assessment, and some of the parallels are indeed striking. The biggest take away I get out of this is the aftermath.

Of course I want a super bowl championship just like everyone else, but I also don’t value a single moment in time over years of absolute painful to watch football.

long term health of the packers organization is paramount to me. care for the future.

17 points
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Leatherhead's picture

May 09, 2021 at 01:24 pm

If you take Tom Brady out of the discussion, the list of QBs over 32 who have won a Super Bowl is a pretty short list.

11 points
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dobber's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:50 am

17 of 55, including Brady. I don't know why you would remove him from the discussion except to just weaken the data set. If your point is to say that it hasn't happened very often in the cap era, aside from Brady, you're right, but since the cap was instituted in 1994--including Brady--9 of about 27 SBs have had winning teams piloted by QBs over 32.

Starr (II)
Dawson (IV)
Staubach (XII)
Plunkett (XV, XVII)
THeismann (XVII)
Doug Williams (XXII)
Montana (XXIV)
Young (XXIX)
Elway (XXXII, XXXIII)
Brad Johnson (XXXVII)
P. Manning (L)
Brady (has won 4 after 32)

Three other SB winning QBs won at age 31 (Ken Stabler, Terry Bradshaw, Phil Simms) ...so now you're up to about 36%. In general, about 1 in 3 SB has been won by a 'geriatric' QB.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:39 pm

You are right, it’s only one measure, but it’s hard to argue Brees was value in that contract, or that his play did not decline and mounting injuries did not limit it further. That’s with a coach who was very inventive in getting the most out of that team with or without Brees.

4 points
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Minniman's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:14 pm

Thanks for the post Dobber. Totally agree that the stats don’t tell the whole story - but the contract structures are pretty telling, and the similarities are definitely there!

We’ve had exchanges before and agreed that Rodgers is a consummate professional and prepares accordingly during the off-season. Right here, right now he still has an accurate deep ball and sneaky better mobility and agility than given credit. I think that he’s way better at 37 than Brees was.

Perhaps a pertinent question for Al’s next ‘polluted’ poll is: “how many more HIGH LEVEL years do you think that Rodgers still has in him?” 3,4,5, more?

This may better frame whether the investment meets the risk. Right here, right now Jordan Love is too much of an unknown quantity to put any stock in.

2 points
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Minniman's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:18 pm

Thanks for the post Dobber. Totally agree that the stats don’t tell the whole story - but the contract structures are pretty telling, and the similarities are definitely there!

We’ve had exchanges before and agreed that Rodgers is a consummate professional and prepares accordingly during the off-season. Right here, right now he still has an accurate deep ball and sneaky better mobility and agility than given credit. I think that he’s way better at 37 than Brees was.

Perhaps a pertinent question for Al’s next ‘polluted’ poll is: “how many more HIGH LEVEL years do you think that Rodgers still has in him?” 3,4,5, more?

This may better frame whether the investment meets the risk. Right here, right now Jordan Love is too much of an unknown quantity to comfortably put any stock in…… although I wouldn’t exactly call him a ‘penny dreadful’ - he’s more of ‘Silicon Valley flier’

0 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 03:54 am

Drew Brees Stats:

Year/ PFF/ Passer rating
2016: 83.2/101.7
2017: 86.4/103.9
2018: 94.7/115.7
2019: 91.4/116.3
2020: 73.0/106.4

Yes, his arm got weaker as he aged. He was still a very good QB. Brees played the first 9 games in 2020 and then broke 11 ribs. He missed just 4 games and had a two bad games (3 TDs/3 INTs, 80.7 and 84.7 passer rating) upon his return.

Michael Thomas missed 9 games in 2020. Unlike when Davante Adams misses games, NO loses when Thomas doesn't play. NO is 6-4 when Thomas misses a game, including 6-3 in 2020.

And then there is the trust factor between Brees and NO. From 2016 through 2020, Brees signed 3 contracts, all 2 years or less, that paid him $119.25M over those 5 years, or $23.85M/year.

NO could have selected a QB in the first year of Brees' 2016 contract, which looks like it might have been Paxton Lynch. In 2017, maybe Jerome Kizer. In 2018, Lamar Jackson was on the board for NO. One of those three might have worked out. In 2019, NO could have moved up from 48 to take Drew Lock (42), costing them Eric McCoy (48) and Chancey-Gardner (105), two starters. That would have been brilliant. Or NO could just have selected Jordan Love at 24 in 2020. I kinda doubt Brees would have been signing short and team friendly deals, but that is just cynical me.

IDK. Looks to me like a team can get 5 good chances at getting to and winning a super bowl, or zero or one good chance at a SB (when the aging QB demands to go elsewhere) and still getting a two-thirds chance at being left with a lousy QB. I am not even sold on Lamar Jackson as a SB QB, but a sufficiently good team probably can win a super bowl with Jackson.

That's just me. GB can try to play it safe - I don't like the probabilities involved in playing it safe. Y'all do you.

1 points
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croatpackfan's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:02 am

Again many of todays AR supporters in his fights with Packers take as concrete truth that JL is not capable to play on high level in NFL. Yes, you all say we don't know! I agree - we don't know. But what if Jordan Love is next HOF QB and Packers release or trade him to please aged Diva and it turns around that age catches AR quickly and turn out that Jordan Love show that he was right choice for change.

"GB can try to play it safe - I don't like the probabilities involved in playing it safe. Y'all do you." you said, TGR. Hmmm... Does that means that you are for immediate change at QB position from AR to JL, which we can clearly see as risky move, or you are to play safe and say I'll keep AR as long as he wants?

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 11, 2021 at 06:11 am

1. AR has not called for trading Love.
2. Nor have I.
3. It doesn't look like Love is ready*.
4. Playing it safe meant limiting AR's dead money.
5. I didn't think in those terms but keeping AR and keeping him happy would be the safe thing to do. I remember the 70s and 80s with poor QBs (save Lynn Dickey) and the NFL now is far more of a passing league that is dependent on having a good to great QB.

4 - Supposedly Gute wanted to keep AR on a string while retaining the option of moving on from AR to Love in 2022. Now his hand is being forced, so we will never know what GB initially planned to do with AR's contract to meet the cap (and sign a useful UFA like a CB or DL). Playing it safe meant keeping one toe in AR's camp and one toe in the moving on camp.

*Multiple quotes from Gute and LaFleur all of which indicate that Love was not ready at the end of the 2020 season to be the starter. Right after the season Gute said Love made "limited progress during the season" for example (not sure if Gute knew of AR's discontent at the time of that quote). Still possible that Love comes into this camp looking much better. No sense trading Love since GB can't get back their investment and need time to see what they have. Love will get preseason game snaps and it is very possible Love gets some snaps during the regular season, either due to a blow out or (fingers crossed it doesn't happen) an injury.

0 points
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Bearmeat's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:02 pm

Let's look at the other end of the coin: Miami has been trying to replace Dan Marino for 30 years. Denver has had atrocious QB play since Peyton.

Should the Packers go "all in?" No. The Saints had some bad luck in the playoffs, but they weren't sure fire winners any of those years. Should they be prepared for Rodgers departure or descending play? Yes. Should they push him out the door based on his play? No.

Now, the real question is if they should push him out the door because he's not playing at an MVP level, and he's a pain to deal with. That is what is going on after 2021 possibly, and why Gute doesn't want to tie himself to ARod so quickly at age 40.

If I were Gute, I'd stand strong.

25 points
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nstewart1's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:45 pm

This is the point, we don't know how good Love is yet, and we don't know how well Rogers will continue to play in the next couple of years - we do know how expensive he'll be. This is why we want him under contract for the next three years.
Given that he IS under contract, and the Obnoxious Offensive he is pursuing, we sure don't want to make it any harder to trade him.
After next year we should know if Love can really take over as the Franchise QB, or if we'll need to stick with Rogers at least through his current contract.
If Rogers really does sit-out the year - we'll know about Love that much sooner.

10 points
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Leatherhead's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:03 pm

The real question is money. Would you rather have Rodgers, or Love and money for some free agents to help put a real good defense on the field. ?

Every Super Bowl the Packers have ever won has featured a HOF QB and a top defense. Favre was young. Rodgers was young. Bart wasn’t old.

4 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

May 09, 2021 at 07:13 pm

THey had ten years to select players for a top defense, yet Rodgers still carries this team's fortunes on his arm.
Dig up a better analogy.

2 points
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HankScorpio's picture

May 10, 2021 at 05:27 am

They have two straight NFC CG losses. One of them came with an average QB and the other came with a MVP QB. Both QBs were Rodgers. It is questionable how much he "carried" them.

It is a fact that he had the ball in his hands 3 times with the opportunity to tilt that question to that he does carry them. And he failed in all 3 tries. IOWs, they put him in the exact situation they paid him dearly to deliver. And he didn't.

Football is the ultimate team game. W/L in not a QB stat. There is no doubt that QB play influences the game the most. But that only goes so far.

6 points
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BJP's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:22 am

Three tries without a second stud wide receiver because they took Jordan love in the previous draft.

-4 points
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Coldworld's picture

May 10, 2021 at 08:31 am

In the last one we had a standout receiver... MVS. Adams had a below par day.

3 points
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HankScorpio's picture

May 10, 2021 at 05:53 pm

True enough. They were and still are sorely lacking at WR2 talent. There is plenty of blame to go around for that loss.

Enough that Rodgers gets some too.

0 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 04:12 am

"Miami has been trying to replace Marino for 30 years."

So, you want to obliterate GB's current chances so they can get a 2 year head start on finding AR's successor?

No thanks. I'll take 3 years of being a real contender and then embark on however long it takes to find a successor.

-2 points
1
3
greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 06:52 am

TGR, I think we all want that. It’s just not an option if Aaron Rodgers won’t play again for the Packers.

Never mind, the workings it would require to get him under C again in GB, no matter how much we debate the merits or lack there of to the cost to the team.

Aaron Rodgers drew a line in the sand, with a flame thrower.

The options we have: sit him at enormous cost to the team, or trade him while he’s at his highest sale price. Set up as we might be, you can’t make him play for you.

2 points
2
0
dobber's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:56 am

His sale price will be higher if they can nurse him into the 2022 off season.

...or maybe, better said: the compensation will be better if they can nurse him into the 2022 offseason.

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 03:44 pm

"...nurse him into the 2022 off season..."

Say no more. I couldn't handle that stress. Not to mention, that is no way to go through life, son!!! Get the deal done, bring on the new players and let's ROCK THE NFL!!!!

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 11, 2021 at 06:20 am

“Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.”

That just sprang to mind immediately. Although going through life in the NFL quarterback-less also came to mind.

-1 points
0
1
greengold's picture

May 11, 2021 at 07:18 am

Seriously, TGR? I quit drinking, like... over a year ago.

0 points
0
0
Since'61's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:18 pm

If anything the Brees case study tells me that the Packers should stick with Rodgers for the next 2-3 seasons.
Why? Because MLF's offense is built to protect the QB. Run more, pass less. Rodgers experience and talent compliments this system perfectly.
As the Packers running game improves hopefully with Jones, Dillon and Hill running behind Deguara, defenses with adjust to stop it. At that point Rodgers is still more than capable of killing them with quick, accurate passes, especially with Amari Rodgers now on the team coming out of the slot.

Give up on Rodgers now and you decapitate this offense when it may finally have the tools for success. On the other hand Love may evolve into a good QB but it will take him at least 2 seasons to learn to read NFL defenses and for the game to slow down especially after not having played a down in over year at any level.

Offer Rodgers 3 years at $25-30 million per year guaranteed with an opt out after 2 years for both sides. See where the negotiations go from there. This not about the money for Rodgers this is about Rodgers being able to go out on his own terms. In spite of his antics he has earned that based on his play on the field over the course of his career.

Packer management is in a difficult spot. They put themselves in a position where they need to move Rodgers out so that they can justify trading up in the first for a QB who played in an uncompetitive second division college conference. Then Rodgers wins the MVP award so they decide to keep the band together for another 1-2 year run with Rodgers. Now they could very well lose Rodgers without any return if he retires and Love could prove to be an NFL flop. So what's the point of keeping the band together? We're not going on a run with Love until at least 2-3 seasons from now and that is the best case scenario. The worst case is that we end up in the QB/HC/GM carousel for a decade or more.

Be smart keep the band together with Rodgers as the band leader and go all in for the next 2 seasons. The problem is that approach makes Packer management look bad (stupid) for taking Love if he sits for 4-5 years. Duh, it was stupid. Nevertheless, suck it up and go for it with Rodgers. Sticking with Rodgers prevents splitting the locker room and leaving MLF with numerous disgruntled veterans to deal with. Don't make a bad situation worse. As Mike Holmgren has said, "I would never had allowed it to get this far." Neither would Ron Wolf. But then again they were 2 people who actually knew what they were doing as opposed to Murphy, Gute and Ball, each of whom appears to have their own agenda. I wonder who is the actual decision maker in the current Packer triumvirate. Whoever it is, assuming there is one, they need to resolve this sooner (before TC) than later.

At least it's been a quiet week since the draft. For me, no news is good news. It leads me to believe that the entire fracas during the draft weekend was driven by the need to boost draft viewership rather than to report any actual facts about what is happening between Rodgers and the Packers. Let's see what this week brings. Thanks, Since '61

5 points
16
11
jannes bjornson's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:41 pm

Preach it ! The Holmgren commentary this week, sealed the lid. The Silage committee should resign en force.
Shape shifters in cheap suits talking bottom line when the bottom's falling out.

0 points
7
7
MarkinMadison's picture

May 09, 2021 at 01:34 pm

I agree BUT how much are you willing to pay #12 to captain an offense that is emphasizing the run and protecting the QB?

4 points
6
2
Since'61's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:05 pm

If I’m paying Rodgers guaranteed money I cap
It out at $35 million. Start at $25-30 and negotiate from there. The real
Answer to your question is two fold.
1. Does Gute & Murphy believe enough in MLF and their draft picks over the last 3 years that they can win it all in 2021 and/or 2022? If the answer is yes, then
2. How much is it worth to pay Rodgers to get there?

I think Rodgers will accept less money over 2-3 years for the security to remain in Green Bay. For some reason we are worried more about Rodgers decline then we are about the definite decline we will have in going from
Rodgers to Love at least for the foreseeable future.

For now, Rodgers is the bird in the hand. Love is the bird in the bush. Seems obvious to me and Mike Holmgren.
Thanks, Since ‘61

-1 points
5
6
Demon's picture

May 09, 2021 at 01:52 pm

61, that should be the last comment from any poster or writer on this subject. Nobody can make any point or argument after your post/opinion. Yours was spot on on all fronts

-2 points
4
6
Since'61's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:08 pm

Thanks Demon! Rodgers is the bird in hand and Love is the bird in the bush. Go with the bird in the hand. Since ‘61

-1 points
4
5
Demon's picture

May 09, 2021 at 05:40 pm

Let us not forget, there is a much greater chance that Love is the next 1st round bust QB than the next HOF QB!

3 points
4
1
Since'61's picture

May 09, 2021 at 07:12 pm

Without question. Thanks, Since '61

1 points
1
0
Minniman's picture

May 10, 2021 at 04:51 am

Demon, a couple of weeks ago I did the analysis of 1st and 2nd round QB draft picks for a post (since 2000)...... The number is 5/6ths.

Statistically, there's a 5/6ths chance that Love will NOT become a legitimate franchise QB - let alone a Favre\Rodgers caliber HOFer.

So correcting you Since 61' - a QB bird in the hand is actually worth 5 in the bush.

The only thing that would sway me from supporting retaining Rodgers till he's 40 was if someone actually presented REAL and VERIFIABLE evidence that he was a legitimate locker room cancer.

To my mind, Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago couldn't beat him on the field - so their supporters in the media are resorting to dirty tactics to do it off the field.

0 points
1
1
croatpackfan's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:08 am

Really. And what data you have for that estimation?

Because Packers did not ever drafted HOF QB? Or...

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:04 am

I understand many wanting Aaron Rodgers to be a bird in hand, but he’s not.

All of these discussions pretty much are predicated on this notion that he will return to the Packers, regardless of the feasibility.

He doesn’t want to return to play for the Packers. Hard to fathom, downright inconceivable, yes. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.

Seems to me, that is where the Packers find themselves. What would Lombardi do? I think the Packers already made this deal before the draft, and there’s no going back. One look at both sides depth charts gives a good indication the deal is agreed upon with DEN, and the Packers should realize a handsome return. They’ve been mum on the issue and will remain so until after June 1st.

3 points
4
1
Coldworld's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:46 pm

I read this and wonder if that wasn’t exactly the thought process NO had when they gave Brees his last contract. I suspect it was. Certainly the team adaptations followed a similar logic if different scheme.

That’s why this is cautionary. It’s not inevitable that Rodgers would follow the Brees path. I suppose it depends on what one thinks is the most likely and how long one is talking about ... which may be the nub of the problem here.

There are no certainties in a gamble like this.

8 points
9
1
Since'61's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:09 pm

There are no certainties either way. But Rodgers is the bird in hand and Love is the bird in the bush. Go with the bird in hand. Thanks, Since ‘61

-6 points
3
9
PeteK's picture

May 09, 2021 at 04:41 pm

Yes, that's why he's signed for the next 3 years. Fully guaranteed next year and 17 mill cap hit in 2022. I don't know if 2022 has an injury guarantee . I would fully guarantee 2022 and that's it. I thought the contract he signed was very fair for both, that's why he signed it. So now that he had an MVP year he wants more. Ok so if he has a sub par year will he give some money back.

5 points
6
1
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 04:21 am

Fair enough. Note the well might be tainted now.

3 points
3
0
Guam's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:52 pm

Since'61: I often agree with your posts and agree with parts of this one - (1) I have been a consistent critic of the Love draft choice from day one and (2) I have long advocated for an all in approach in Rodgers remaining contract years. However I do not agree with your excoriation of Packer management.

Several years ago the Packer FO offered and Rodgers signed a contract that extends through age 39 with the earliest reasonable opt for the team being after age 37. That is unusual job security for the NFL and Rodgers apparently agreed as he signed it. Why is it poor management when the team expects him to fulfill that contract?

Gute clearly screwed up when he drafted Love and did not inform Rodgers in advance. And he has publicly apologized for that mistake. Has Rodgers apologized for putting his GM in a tough spot when he publicly advocated for Kumerow with the national media one day prior to cutdowns? That should have been a private conversation not a national media event.

Credit to Gute that he did not capitulate to Rodgers and abdicate his job responsibilities by keeping Kumerow. Gute instead did his job and kept a player he believed had more upside. From Rodgers purported comments it appears he wants more than input, he wants to make at least some of the personnel decisions. And conceding to that would be poor management.

The Packer FO is not perfect, but a significant chunk of this problem belongs to Rodgers. I hope both can work this out, but I think Rodgers has more work to do than the Packer FO to make this right.

14 points
15
1
Fabio's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:46 pm

Hello since '61
I think that with regard to the famous Kumerow problem it is different.
AR gave an interview in which he was asked about JK and (as a good teammate) spoke highly of it (what should he do otherwise ??)
The problem is that AR was unaware of Gute's plans and management and with his sale they made him look good shit .... This is the main reason why AR is pissed off about the sale of JK.

0 points
3
3
Guam's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:53 am

AR is media savvy enough to avoid questions like that the day before cutdowns. He could have given a bland non-answer and left it at that. Instead he chose to give a detailed answer and he knew exactly what he was doing - lobbying for a favored teammate.

Rodgers has no business being bent out shape over Gute fulfilling his job description by choosing the players he and his staff believe gave the Packers the best chance to win. That was a star player intruding on personnel decisions, a place where he has no business going at least in public.

8 points
10
2
Fabio's picture

May 09, 2021 at 04:38 pm

I am not saying that AR has done well to do what it is doing !!!! The problem is that I even knew from Italy that AR would do it !!!
Worse still is the fact that we fans don't realize that Gute had to foresee this reaction and have the solution ready !!!
Focus more on concrete and real things than on gossip and behavior .... We must have already made a decision on Rodgers as soon as he raised the problem (JANUARY !!!!!) Now we are at the mercy of events. This is because Gute does not want to go from incompetent by exchanging a future MVP HOF or by denying his choice of the 1st round .....
Everything else is good for the media to entertain the public. When a choice such as that of drafting Love is made, a serious Management plans all possible scenarios that may occur, even the worst ones like this. And ours didn't. This is the only real irrefutable and serious problem !!!!! I don't give a damn about Rodgers or whoever he is, I only care that the team is managed by people who have clear ideas that cannot be put at risk by any player !!!!!

2 points
4
2
Guam's picture

May 09, 2021 at 10:32 pm

"I care only that the team is managed by people who have clear ideas that cannot be put at risk by any player." Which is what the Packer FO is doing by drafting Love and proceeding with a plan to move on from Rodgers. I may not like or agree with that plan, but they have one and are not wavering from it so far.

7 points
7
0
Fabio's picture

May 10, 2021 at 02:17 am

If it were as you say (as of today 10/05/2021 !!!) they would not have gone to talk to Rodgers to find a solution, but they had already found it and we would be opening something else. And if you want to see things that don't exist then I don't know how to make it understand .....
They all continue to sound like comments to defend Gute and the whole CEO for no reason

-3 points
0
3
Coldworld's picture

May 10, 2021 at 08:35 am

The team has been clear that they wanted Rodgers to start as contracted this year. I simply do not see a basis for saying the team lacks a specific direction. You can disagree with it but you can’t deny it.

1 points
1
0
PeteK's picture

May 09, 2021 at 04:48 pm

He wants to make personnel decisions, he's speaking as if we weren't the #2 offense and didn't have a 14-4 season. Also, when a team signs you to a contract at age 36 for 4 yrs , that same player should not be shocked if the team drafted a talented but raw QB that became available to them.

8 points
10
2
murf7777's picture

May 09, 2021 at 08:45 pm

Until AR speaks publicly it is all conjecture. As fans we don’t know what he wants.

2 points
4
2
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 04:38 am

Both GB and AR signed that contract 3 years ago. It has opt outs (de facto) for both parties. GB didn't want to truly honor it even after AR had an MVP season in 2020. So AR is returning the favor.

Cap Casualty = a team not honoring a contract.

0 points
3
3
greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:37 am

That is true, TGR. Aaron saw that writing on the wall and wants to make a change while he can. This is truly his only leverage, other than staying and winning the whole thing in GB, which everybody, myself included, wanted.

The paste is out of the tube.

0 points
0
0
Guam's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:55 am

If the contract paid out cash at an equal rate each year, I would agree with your sentiment TGR. However Rodgers got much of his cash upfront with this contract and has left the Packers with a large amortization of his signing bonus each year. The only way that balances out for both parties is if Rodgers fulfills his contract at least through next year.

2 points
2
0
Coldworld's picture

May 10, 2021 at 08:39 am

In what way did the team not honor Rodgers contract? That statement is bizarre. They didn’t seek to shorten or pay him less. They just appear not to have wanted to add guaranteed money to lock him in for 3 years beyond the lock in the original deal. I guess emotion is taking over.

4 points
4
0
greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 09:10 am

Yeah. I read TGR's point to mean more along the lines of how contracts are generally handled by NFL teams, and this one, the Packers were highly likely to not see through to the end. It is true.

And, you're right! Emotion is taking over all over the place. Losing Aaron Rodgers is a big thing for Packer fans everywhere. There was perceived certainty that we were in it every season with him.

That appears over now. The proverbial rug being pulled out from under the Packers. Thankfully, the Packers are about as ready as could possibly be for this scenario.

I think Jordan Love is going to be great, and he doesn't have to do it all. I'm excited to see a QB play within the system under Matt LaFleur, knowing THIS is how he wants to run the O. I'm also excited to see what the Packers get back in trade. It should be quite the haul, and it might push the Packers over the top, if Love can deliver within reason. We'll see.

The Packers defense became a lot better after last week's draft. So did GB's Special Teams. We all know the story, but, add even more skill players to our roster than Amari Rodgers and Kylin Hill? Hmmm. Add a more highly regarded defender or two? Having cap space to sign a player like Sheldon Richardson? wow.

The sky isn't falling in GB. Chances are, we might be just fine...

2 points
2
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 11, 2021 at 07:32 am

I am going to respond to both you and CW here.

Greengold got the contract part. Neither party has breached the contract. It is normal for QBs to convert $ to a signing bonus often to generate cap space as needed. It looked like GB didn't want to convert any more than necessary so as to be able to not honor the contract for 2022 and/or 2023. Just guaranteeing money in 2022 or 2023 doesn't provide employment security in GB for AR since guaranteed money that hasn't been paid yet can be traded. It almost has to be an option bonus in 2022, possibly with a void year in 2024 or a real extension. Look at Aaron Jones' deal - it's 2 yrs. at $20M. The deal for 2023 has GB paying Jones $16M big one for a $19.25M cap hit. Not happening, but at least both sides know that the deal is going to be renegotiated early in 2023. Every deal has an out for both sides at varying levels of cost to each side.

Emotion: I think folks put on their Pro-Team or Pro-AR lens and then looks at snippets of info or even facts and reach opposite conclusions.

1. AR is afraid of Love/Love must have looked better than some say. I reach the opposite conclusion: Love must have looked very unready (even if the raw talent is there). That gives AR leverage now and less next year when Love may have developed more. But one could reach either conclusion - one just seems more likely to me.

2. AR underestimated the negative publicity/backlash. First thing I wrote was about being surprised AR would tarnish his image and jeopardize his endorsements and jeopardize Jeopardy! With a bird's eye view of the Favre ending, he should have known there would be backlash. I don't remember Favre having as many supporters in 2008 as CW seemingly does, but when the pick was made in 2005, then things were very divided. Can't remember what the split was for either time frame and probably no one knows what it was - 60/40? IDC really.

3. I forget! Had a third but typing drove it from my mind, such as it is. EDIT: Well, this isn't what I had in mind, but my wife used to tell people when she wasn't the person who was cooking for 125 people at out Community Center fundraising dinners. Some people didn't pay $50 for that meal if she wasn't cooking. I don't have a problem with AR telling teammates that he might not be in GB in 2021. Nor do I put much stock in saying to teammates that they should consider moving with him. That just seems polite to me and not necessarily as serious recruitment to GB's detriment. AR doesn't even know if he is going to still be in GB or if traded to what team. That said, I can see how one could reach the opposite conclusion.

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

May 11, 2021 at 09:28 am

Thanks for sharing that TGR. I think it is all very well reasoned too.

1. Though we've expressed differing opinions on what Jordan Love will be bringing to the Packers, I can see both sides of the argument you offered here - all the way. The likelihood of Jordan Love being ready, right now, should be considered low, as he's really had no experience outside of what he's done against other pro level players in practice. Agreed. We feel differently on how much talent Jordan Love brings to the Packers. I clearly feel the Packers may have struck gold again.

I guess my own perspective is that Matt LaFleur might be looking at this differently because he has seen more, and may feel getting Love up to speed to successfully navigate our schedule is something he is confident he can do, through both instruction and play calling. I believe Love has the talent, and he won't have to do everything. AR loved wearing the Superman Cape. I think LaFleur would rather make games easier to manage with HIS play calling. I question whether he got that every week. Jordan Love will be more responsive to LaFleur's wishes.

2. I believe AR didn't care about the backlash, and may have in fact wanted more to force the trade - if it wasn't already done. We know Aaron, and he goes for the jugular. If there is an end game to any competitive situation, that is what he will go for. I see him wanting to start his beautiful mystery in DEN, and it is looking like he in all likelihood forced the trade - probably in those mtgs with Murphy, Gutekunst and LaFleur... Won't know until after the 1st, but I'm sure we'll find out. The backlash was unavoidable either way. His putting his declaration out on draft night that he won't return to GB could have easily been a parting shot at Packers management, knowing they passed the point of no return. The Bridgewater trade the night before is tailor made for GB as a vet backup for Love, and pretty much cemented the notion, for me, that this deal was completed - in principle - before the draft.

3. While he may have told his teammates he wouldn't be returning in 2021 as has been reported, I find it funny he didn't make a phone call to Davante, who found out AR was not returning while he was on the golf course, or so he said.

eh...

This is not what I nor you wanted, but we've taken different tacts in talking about it. For myself, I just think they cemented the deal, and all talks of giving AR what he wants, etc. are sadly moot. If that is the case, then looking at the positives does no harm. I happen to think there could be a lot to like with this hand that appears to have been dealt to us by Rodgers. We'll probably get our first look at the cards in 3 weeks. GB really has all kinds of leverage with DEN in that they do not have to make a trade, so I bet we'll receive Aces.

Every draft from here on out will be replaying parts of those events leading into the 2021. Aaron knew that, and he's a Bronco. He wouldn't have done that if he hoped for a resolution and a return. The silence we hear from both teams is telling.

0 points
0
0
PeteK's picture

May 10, 2021 at 04:12 pm

Bottom line ,Rod knew the parameters of the contract. I wonder if 2022 is fully guaranteed for injury.

0 points
0
0
greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:30 am

Guam, this is a great perspective you’ve shared here, and I couldn’t agree more.

If Gutekunst’s biggest screw up was not calling a prima dona who has shown little respect for those in higher positions on the Packers team, well, I can live with that.

The Packers clearly had a plan to give AR his most recent contract, knowing at some point they had to address finding his successor at some point. Favre dropped into the Packers laps via Ron Wolf stealing him from Jerry Glanville. It was shrewd, and an educated move by Wolf. Aaron Rodgers? Same, via Ted Thompson. Love? Possibly same via Gutekunst.

Aaron Rodgers stated publicly, via Adam Scefter, that he won’t return to the Packers. Privately, in talks with the team, those words were relayed in all probability prior to LaFleur & Gutekunst flying out to try to bring him back.

This appears done, and the trade already made in principle.

Hopefully, the Packers will set a new standard for how to usher in and out, three legendary QBs, and more. We’ll see. They didn’t trade up for Love for nothing.

Only SF and Bill Walsh had previously made a successful transition of legendary QBs. The Packers are attempting their 3rd, and I wish them all the best.

1 points
2
1
Guam's picture

May 10, 2021 at 08:01 am

GG: I would rather have Rodgers for one more year and give Love more opportunity to develop, but you may be right, this may already be over. If it is, we will know early in June what is going to happen.

2 points
2
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 11, 2021 at 07:38 am

1. AR never stated anything publicly.
2. Shefter is to be taken with a grain of salt.

1 points
1
0
Minniman's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:36 pm

Great post Since 61.

I would challenge you on 1 point though.

The current life expectancy of a true franchise qb is 10-12 years (unless they’re cam Newton and think that they are indestructible…. There’s a Lesson there people) and with the increasing qb protection rules this is only going to increase.

Sitting Love out behind an existing bona fide stud is not stupid and gives the packers more time to develop and evaluate him. If he’s good, post Rodgers, he has a GB career that still spans 10-12 years. I’ll take that.

Like rg3 and many others, good qb talent can be blown up prematurely

8 points
8
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 04:43 am

You're probably foregoing the "good QB who is still on a rookie contract" benefit, also known as one way to win a super bowl. And of course the benefit of having a first round talent as an additional position player.

Other than those two things, fair enough. I think under the current rules teams do need at least a pretty good QB to be a contender.

3 points
3
0
Irish_Cheesehead's picture

May 09, 2021 at 04:13 pm

This all assumes Rodgers even wants to come back to Green Bay. I haven't heard anyone from FO even whisper anything about giving up on Rodgers. At least in public, they are all in on Rodgers. It's Rodgers that needs to quit hiding and speak up.

9 points
9
0
Fabio's picture

May 09, 2021 at 05:12 pm

Sorry but Rodgers has signed to play up to 39 for Green Bay. Now if he has to think only about playing why do you think Gute wrote Love? to keep it as a second? As we all know, Gute wants to join Rodgers in 2022. So why isn't it rumored that Gute is not following contracts? Ah no! The fault always lies with Rodgers. I hear many talking and saying that he must only be a player and respect the contract ... well! now who does what all the players do we complain? Now you will tell me that AR is a diva, an open-minded woman, who does not have to speak out in decisions, that he is bad, that he is touchy, that he is vindictive .....
Do you know what I care about how Rodgers is? Absolutely nothing!!! I also think that he has an asshole behavior, but I also think that he blames AR for everything to mask the problems of mangement (has been like that for 10 years)
I just wish I had a GM and a CEO who know what will happen when they draft Love and not leave us in the abyss as they are doing now making us seem like the sport's joke.
Now you can go on to say that AR is ........, AR is ......, AR is ......

-1 points
2
3
Since'61's picture

May 09, 2021 at 07:32 pm

Irish, Looking at it the other way Rodgers has not said that he wants to leave Green Bay. That is a rumor that the media has created based on an assumption based on an alleged accumulation of information. The bottom line remains, good management does not allow this to happen with their best player.

Sadly there is a consistent theme in the Packers operations. When they lose a game the loss is often blamed on poor communications between the coaches and players in terms of formations and getting plays in. Now even during offseason Gutey is admitting that it was a communications failure not to advise Rodgers about picking Love. Maybe the Packers need a communications coach! Thanks, Since '61

0 points
3
3
croatpackfan's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:26 am

Since'61 are you so sure that he did not tell that? Why he did not dismiss that claim publicly?

He is sending his friends to talk that relation is reparable. What is that? Is he not a Man himself to clearly, publicly say that? He needs others to work from him?

I say he said (or some of his friends) that "he will not play for Packers anymore" just to test the public and Packers FO. If the public will be on his side (and clearly they are not, at least in Packers nation) he would go out publicly blackmailing his employee and play hard game. On contrary, if reaction will be negative on him, he will say that "he is sorry that the news break out!" which basically means that news are truth, but he "wanted" to keep them as secret. But, Oh, somebody betrayed him (lol). Those are childish games played for serious money. That is why I'm against AR at this moment. If he will give reliable explanation of the whole story in the future, I might change my opinion.

All the "news" that broke out in the last 10 days are confirmation that he personally stands behind them, if they were true intention or just mind games. If those where mind games I believe that shows how AR have low respect of fans, media (justified) and Packers (his employee). He believe he outsmarts us all. Well. he did not outsmart me...

1 points
2
1
greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 09:36 am

Since'61, we've been around the block...

I don't buy that Schefty walk back for one second. He knows where his bread is buttered, and if it means contradicting his own report to stay on Aaron Rodgers' good side, he will, and he did.

BTW, those weren't just any comments. They were nuclear. Hours before the draft.

"Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers is so disgruntled with the Green Bay Packers that he has told some within the organization that he does not want to return to the team, league and team sources told ESPN on Thursday."

Schefter's walk back is garbage. Was he pressured by ESPN to put it out like this? Possibly. That Dan Patrick walk back was insanely weak.

"I said, 'How long until it gets out that Aaron Rodgers wants out of Green Bay?'" Schefter said to Dan. "It's gonna come out. What does it matter if it comes out now, or next week, or next month?"

As a Packer fan, IT MIGHT MATTER, ADAM!!!!!! FFS. I wonder how many Packer fans had actual heart palpitations or arrhythmias? Fucking douchebags... I see a whole brat and cheese loving community who could easily file a class action lawsuit against ESPN for that one.

The bigger point is, NO ONE IS REFUTING THIS CONTENT. Not the Packers. Not Aaron Rodgers.

I firmly believe he's not coming back. Might as well make the most of it. Look on the bright side. Could become a gigantic windfall for the Packers, and more.

2 points
2
0
Guam's picture

May 10, 2021 at 10:42 am

That is the salient point GG. Rodgers is not refuting the content of Schefter's report and Murphy publicly confirmed there is an issue. Sigh.... I still hope Rodgers and the Packers can patch this up for at least one farewell tour, but this might be over in June.

1 points
1
0
BJP's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:23 am

A fool and his HOF QB are soon parted.

1 points
2
1
canadapacker's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:16 pm

I like the article but there are some big exceptions to this and the supposed morale to the story - and that is the Quarterback himself. I believe that AR is more like Brady in both the type of body and the type of ability to make all the throws. First off - Brees is much shorter and has a much different throwing motion and arm strength. That started to really show this year. Much like Brees Eli Manning also suffered from a different throwing motion and his movement in the pocket slowed down his last few years. Rivers never did move well and his throwing motion was unique and the fact that he lasted as long as he did throwing that way was amazing but he to was running out of gas even his last 2 years with the Chargers. So I think that the Brees -AR comparison may be correct in comparing whether or not the team "goes all in" - but has little to do with the Quarterback physical attributes or the ability to get the ball out accurately and on time - now or for the next few years. So if AR wants to be paid and locked in solid for 3 more years - it would be stupid to let him go. Even Brett had 2 years before falling off the cliff at 41 - totally believe that with the less mileage that AR has on his body (13) - Brett's 19 - Brees - 19 -

-1 points
6
7
Coldworld's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:51 pm

If you look at Brees and Favre, it was the arm that started to go. All of them lost mobility (Rodgers has too) except largely Brady, who had little to start with. One can argue Brees and Rodgers have more in common than any do with Brady, but in the end, there’s no telling when that zip will go or, like Brees, it’s helped along by related injury. That fact is probably more relevant than similarities or otherwise.

1 points
3
2
canadapacker's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:16 pm

AR is getting just slightly slower - and as long as he gets somewhat good protection can move around in the pocket and can still run for first downs and he slides. The biggest thing is that the same as a running back - he only has 13 yeas of play on his body where those other guys all had 19 and those extra 6 make a big difference. Also AR's arm strength and accuracy has always been top notch. Two years ago he was missing a lot of short throws -and it was probably a mindset rather than any physical issues. If you judge him against Favre, E Manning, Rivers and Brees - he can quite easily play 4 more hghly productive years. Brees got crushed and injured twice in his last 2 years. That will be the only caveat against AR not performing up to par - no body slams.

0 points
3
3
Coldworld's picture

May 10, 2021 at 08:44 am

I really don’t see your basis for knowing that. There is no guarantee that a body will hold up. It’s just hope because it is impossible to know either way.

-1 points
0
1
canadapacker's picture

May 10, 2021 at 10:18 am

But to the contrary, you dont know that he will have a rapid fall off. Now I reiterate - Favre, E Manning, Rivers, and especially Brees had 19 tough years on their body while AR has only had 16 playing years on his. Everyone was writing Brady off in New England after his first round playoff lost to the Titans and look what he has done. AR still has the arm strength and the body type and is in shape to continue for 3 or 4 more years - like Brady and that just takes him to the age of Favre and #4 didnt necessarily do the off season work that AR appears to do.

0 points
0
0
Ferrari-Driver's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:19 pm

Bruce, you make an interesting analysis and pose a reason for pause.
Your quote: If they use the Saints as a case study, the answer becomes clear.
I'm not so sure you can equate the Packers situation to the Saints. I believe Rodgers is markedly more talented than Brees and the Packers have been in the NFC Championship game the last two years. Couple that with the belief that most of us Packer fans believe the team has improved itself this year both through a solid draft and with the likely improvement of young developing players on the team.
People remember Super Bowl Champions and I truly believe the Packers have a superb chance of winning one this year. While I am disappointed in what we have been reading in the news, I am hopeful that Rodgers in behind center for our Packers this year and we go all the way.

10 points
11
1
Qoojo's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:18 pm

Packers are in the driver's seat. AR is under contract for years. If it's up to me, AR can play for the packers or retire. No contract extension or pay raise. If a team were to offer a ransom reward, then I might consider trading AR to an AFC team.

AR is already showing decreased mobility. Age/time never loses. One hit at this point could be the last play of his career. Whatever years AR has after 40 or end of his contract, I would be fine with if it's not with packers, because it's not going to be many years.

Either way, the packers still have to fix the defense, which has been a work in progress for 10 years.

5 points
9
4
Ferrari-Driver's picture

May 09, 2021 at 01:15 pm

Rodgers still has decent mobility and would rate it above average and he knows how and when to use it.
Tom Brady had never been mobile and has excelled in the NFL. The lack of mobility can be mitigated or offset by good game planning, quick read and release by the quarterback, and a solid offensive line. The pre-snap motion being used by the Packers also tends to slow the rush by both defensive linemen and linebackers. I believe that the Packers offense will excel and improve in Matt LeFleur's third year to fully utilize the talent of Aaron Rodgers and the prospect of going to a Super Bowl is excellent.

2 points
6
4
Qoojo's picture

May 09, 2021 at 04:16 pm

AR's mobility is decreased, and it's only going to decrease more. AR is still mobile. Brady excelled because of good offensive lines that gave him time to throw. Brady cracked under pressure compared to AR who is/was much more elusive.

Given how the offense did so little when it counted late in the TB game, I am not so bullish on the future.

1 points
4
3
dobber's picture

May 09, 2021 at 05:03 pm

Agreed: he can't run away from DEs anymore like he used to. That's been clear for a couple years.

6 points
7
1
stockholder's picture

May 09, 2021 at 12:59 pm

Gute's hands are tied. The blood has been squeezed from the turnip. IF Adams sticks with Rodgers and doesn't budge on his contract. Gute is done with his shell game. He is responsible for the roster. This fight could hurt the packers for years. Gute will have to over-pay for anyone. Just to be on the team. He's already throwing away draft capitol to get his guy. He will have to do the same with $$$$. The word is out. I won't be here. Nobody will play for a loser. And you'll get what you pay for. Rodgers is right. Fire this con- man. He's cost us more then you think.

-7 points
7
14
MarkinMadison's picture

May 09, 2021 at 01:36 pm

If Trent Dilfer can win a Super Bowl, and Eli can win two, you do not need a HOF QB to do it. If Elway, Brady and Manning can do it when their best ball is clearly behind them, you do not need a QB at his peak to do it. So the question is, when you have this offense that is less dependent on stellar QB play, how much can you afford to pay your QB and still have the other pieces that you need in place to be successful?

10 points
13
3
whysoserious's picture

May 10, 2021 at 03:39 pm

Exactly! Brady takes less, rookie contract QBs are winning Super Bowls, Foles won a super Bowl, P Manning couldn't throw when he won his last one. With offenses being built more like the college game quarterbacks do not need to be great to have a good offense. Tampa didn't win the Super Bowl because of Brady. His leadership helped but what helped more was him taking less money and the great defense they had.

Last 21 years only 6 times has a quarterback that was in the top ten of QB salary cap allocation won the Super Bowl and the highest was 4th by Eli Manning. The quarterbacks with the highest cap allocations normally don't win. Who has the highest QB cap number for 2021? Rodgers.

1 points
1
0
jeremyjjbrown's picture

May 09, 2021 at 01:39 pm

Rodgers signed his deal. He has exactly one person to blame if he doesn't like the fact that the Packers prepaid him with TONS of up front money. He can fulfill his word, or he can sit at home and pay the Packers back to watch Love do his job. It is his choice.

13 points
16
3
FidoMcCokefiend's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:15 pm

This is the principled stance, if you sign a contract you need to fulfill your word!

Speaking of, maybe I missed it, but could you link me your outraged comments about Gutekunst when he did not fulfill his word in a contract he gave out when he cut Wagner and Kirksey in February. I tried searching but couldn't find. I'm sure I must have overlooked it.

Like you're highlighting here, Gutekunst has exactly one person to blame if he doesn't like that contract that he gave Kirksey or Wagner. Gutekunst should have fulfilled his word and kept Wagner and Kirksey.

Would be great to see your arguments back from February about that.

-6 points
3
9
Coldworld's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:56 pm

Wagner told the team he was likely to retire for medical reasons ( his knee).

In his comment, his point is Rodgers that Rodgers bargained to have all the guaranteed money up front. Understandable, but now he wants more. Rodgers was in a much better position to bargain than Kirksey, but Kirksey had all his guarantee too.

8 points
9
1
jeremyjjbrown's picture

May 09, 2021 at 09:19 pm

The Packers prepaid 2 million dollars of Kirksey's 2021 salary as collateral against the out in the deal. That was the agreement the Kirksey signed and there is a 0% chance Kirksey's agent did not fully explain that to him. The Packers did not wrong Kirksey, they have 2 mil on the books for him. Your post shows you do not understand how NFL contracts work.

4 points
4
0
FidoMcCokefiend's picture

May 09, 2021 at 01:50 pm

Just so I'm clear here. The Packers should give up on Aaron Rodgers and look at the Saints because they are in dire shape after losing Brees?

The reckless "Go All In" Saints that are a "smoldering crater" currently have -$13.1M in cap space for 2021.

The Packers, the beacon of not hamstringing the organization and never going all in for a player have -$15.4M in cap space in 2021.

Let's repeat that for the PR team of 1265. The Packers, who are happy just being good enough vs trying to win it all are in worse cap shape than the smoldering crater that went all in to try and win it all.

Well, maybe it's 2022 where the chickens come home to roost and the Saints ARE truly a smoldering crater?

Ah, yes, here it is. The Saints are 4M over the cap for 2022! Back to back years! What a smoldering crater! Green Bay and Brian Gutekunst the beacon of smart spending and not going all in and crippling the franchise must have MILLIONS of dollars to spend next year. Let's take a look and see that the Packers are *checks notes* $33M over the cap in 2022, most of any NFL team.

See kids don't be like the Saints!

I hope Gutey gave you a sloppy kiss for this piece.

-12 points
2
14
flackcatcher's picture

May 09, 2021 at 08:13 pm

Yeah that's a really nice spin there. Saints pushed their Cap out for years on end. Owners decision. They knew begining of last season they would do what amounted a rebuild. Trying to pretend Bruce's article does not exist on this comment tread. (shakes head) Gutekunst and Ball have pushed the Cap out for one year. That's it. One year. This team was going to be broken up in 2022, even if the Packers opted in on Rodgers contract. Sunk cost either for the organization either way. As a practical matter, why would Gutekunst burdened the team filled with 1-3 years with an 38 year old aging QB. You should have done an call back to '61. At least he made an honest case.

4 points
4
0
BruceIrons's picture

May 11, 2021 at 11:13 am

The cap is only one part of it.

The Saints are in a place where their cap will be healthy in a couple years. The cost of that was cutting multiple starters on both sides of the ball. Their starting lineup is filled with question marks - including at quarterback, where a bust and a tight end will battle it out for the starting job in training camp.

It's a bleak outlook for winning any time soon in New Orleans.

The Packers are a few years behind where the Saints currently are, which is why the story is relevant. Green Bay chose to spend and bring back as many starters as possible and push out the cap hits, similar to what the Saints did.

The Packers choose to look for their quarterback of the future before the Saints did, but the salary situation and the age of their starting quarterback make it an interesting comparison.

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

May 11, 2021 at 11:37 am

The Packers DID find the player they believe is their QB of the future last year in Jordan Love. That, coupled with the possibility AR is already traded, puts the Green Bay Packers in what would have to be an enviable position around the league, especially if Matt LaFleur can guide his young QB Love through the season with a winning record, or better.

This has the potential to be an amazingly successful transition for the Packers.

Of course it could be a dud, but, I think that is highly unlikely with the team surrounding whoever plays QB for the Packers. A LOT of talent there. New coaches on D and STs. This could be really good.

0 points
0
0
Demon's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:06 pm

My take on this whole AR drama is Franchise QBs dont come walking through the door every day. Just ask the bears, Lions and Vikes. Whatever it takes to get AR back on board must be done! I am of the mindset that Gute and Co did screw the pooch last year when they drafted Love. Now are they going to live with that mistake and move on from AR is the question.

I for one would be ok with a few down years after AR hangs it up. A few years of high draft picks and watching them grow would be exciting and the normal course of action. Moving on from AR THE REIGNING MVP and first ballot hall of famer at this point at best would be irresponsible if not criminally negligent.

3 points
9
6
Meader99's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:08 pm

My original thought was show up and play or go host Jeopardy. Now if Denver wants to offer a kings ransom, then move him after June 1st. If they really wanted to send a package that is Bradley Chubb, Drew Lock and 1st rounders the next 2 seasons, why not? Its disappointing that Rodgers hasnt stepped up and addressed the issue at hand. Thats what true leaders do.

3 points
8
5
WhoDatSay's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:21 pm

Spoken like someone who cherry picked some stats to create a narrative and didn’t watch the Saints over this period of time. From 2017-2020, what NFL team has the best cumulative record? The Saints. Did some of Drew Brees numbers decline? Absolutely. Was that because Drew Brees was no longer as good as he was? Absolutely not. The coaching staff, roster-building, offensive, and defensive philosophies all changed dramatically in this period and led to that success. That all came at the expense of Drew Brees’ statistics, and that’s what needed to happen. Drew Brees racking up gawdy statistics did nothing for the Saints ability to win games. Did they win a championship in this time period? No, but Drew Brees “declining play” was absolutely not the reason why.

And many of the players listed here that the Saints cut weren’t that great as Saints or had *actually* declined. You make the case of the punter, who was the highest paid punter in the league and had his worst statistical season last year. He had become an average punter making the highest salary for a punter in the league. Yes, when some fat needed to be trimmed he was one of the first to go, and it made a lot of sense. Sheldon Rankins was constantly injured and ultimately massively under performed as a Saint. He never lived up to his draft status, especially after he tore his Achilles tendon. He was a free agent in 2021 and they did not re-sign him, for good reason. I could go on, but I’ll spare you.

And the notion that the Saints are now a smoldering crater is laughable. If there is one reason why the Saints are a smoldering crater (we shall see if they are), it’s because they no longer have a franchise quarterback. And guess what Packers fans, if you lose your franchise quarterback, you’ll be in the same boat (Patriots anyone?).

If you want to create the narrative that the Packers shouldn’t sign Rodgers to a long-term deal, go ahead. Just do it in a way that’s factually accurate, not with this nonsense you wrote above. Do your research.

-1 points
8
9
Coldworld's picture

May 09, 2021 at 02:59 pm

Brees was not as good by some way in my opinion. You are the first I’ve heard seriously argue otherwise.

2 points
3
1
Fabio's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:27 pm

Even if it is not nice to say (but it is the truth) I remember that even if Brees was at his end, if it were not for the scandalous refereeing, Tampa would not have even passed the first game and it is not said that we had won against NO. The games are strange and very often a single episode decides everything (see Minneapolis miracle)
Anyway ... comparing Rodgers to Brees doesn't really make sense .... and in any case the problem is always the same ..... LACK OF CORRECT PROGRAMMING !!
We criticize Rodgers a lot because he makes all this mess even though he has three more years on his contract, but we think it is normal that BG will pass by him next year .....
While it is clear as sunshine that Gute frees AR in 2022 it was equally clear that AR would do what it is doing. So it is a problem that you had to take into account and plan the solution right from the choice of Love !!!!
The tragedy is that today there is no solution and every speech in which it is said to go with Love is only dictated by the adverse feeling for AR for the behavior he had. The reality is that Love is a mystery (to pay a compliment) and Gute an incompetent who leaves the team at the mercy of events ..... But we continue to say that everything is so beautiful and we continue to look for every possible excuse to justify the organization that passes through Rodgers .....

1 points
4
3
croatpackfan's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:37 am

Oh, I know how is in Italy. When you sign contract (like AR did and requested guaranteed money upfront) and suddenly you do not like it, you just walk away? Yeah, sure. That is maybe Italian way.

He signed that contract for 5 years! He did not consume half it and he wants new one? Why Packers should give him a new or remake old one? Play, show us that you are still the One and you'll get another contract or contract extension. Otherwise, sorry and thank you for playing for us!

0 points
1
1
byu.tech's picture

May 10, 2021 at 03:01 am

I agree, that's total trash.
may be gutey wrote this article

-4 points
1
5
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 06:11 am

NO is about $8M under the cap when Brees retires. After they pay their draft picks, PS, and 52nd/53rd players, they probably will have no roll over for 2022.

They have $200M in cap liabilities for 2022. Lattimore, Ramczyk, Marcus Williams, Armstead, Hill, and Winston are all UFAs. Davenport will be on a 5th year option. So, things look a bit difficult. They didn't trade any of those guys, which they could have (most of them) for picks, so we shall see.

1 points
1
0
joejetson's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:27 pm

The original plan.when trading up to draft Love had.to be trade Rodgers in '21 or '22. Otherwise, the draft pick makes no sense. Then, Rodgers surprised everyone by turning in an mvp season. Now, Gutekunst is in a bind. He'd look stupid getting rid of the mvp when they have a.legitimate shot at the super bowl. IMO they will always be a.good team with Aaron, but will never win it all until they field a better than average defense. If they can gouge someone for a.bunch of draft picks and at least one or two quality defensive players, I'd trade Rodgers right now.

0 points
5
5
Fabio's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:38 pm

First point: "IMO they will always be a good team with Aaron, but they will never win everything until they field a better than average defense."
We've always blamed AR for every loss but when have we ever had a Top 5 defense? (Answer 1 time = Super Bowl, will it be a coincidence ??)
Second point "If they can dig someone up for a deck of draft picks and at least one or two quality defensive players, I'd trade Rodgers right now."
since it was clear from the beginning of the year we should have (Gute should have) planned the exit from Rodgers before the draft in order to choose what we needed with much higher choices (and based on the players you would have acquired in the exchange)
So instead Gute does not take the responsibility of exchanging an MVP risking to pass for the greatest incompetent in history, but will make it appear that it was Ar who wanted to leave ....
I recommend that we bite like fish !!!

-3 points
3
6
ricky's picture

May 09, 2021 at 03:28 pm

Actually, the Packers moving on from Favre should also be considered. Favre went to the Jets, played hurt, then went to the Vikings and had a terrific year, getting the team to the championship game. Where, however predictably, he threw a stupid interception that cost the Vikes any chance of a win. Now, the Packers are at a crossroads. They have Rodgers, but have Love waiting in the wings. Whether he is ready or not is a huge question, and quite honestly, no one outside of the organization has any real idea of how much he has progressed since being drafted. It seems obvious the Packers want Rodgers back this year, then, unless Love is seen as a total liability, move on from him with minimal consequences next year. Sure, the Packers offered him an extension- but again, no one outside of the organization knows what that looked like. If it didn't include financial ties that would punish the team for getting rid of Rodgers after this season, why would he consider it? It all comes down to whether you believe Rodgers should have the right to decide for himself when to leave, or whether the team has the exclusive right to make that decision.

5 points
7
2
croatpackfan's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:44 am

It does not have nothing with the rights of any contractual party. Everything is in the rules agreed with Player Union and NFL, also detailed in the signed contract.

Packers has the right to keep Aaron Rodgers at the bench 3 years starting now, to trade him or, if he wants, to let him play. Aaron Rodgers can announce retiring from playing, but next free years, if he wants to activate, all the rights stays with Packers. If he decide to unretire before contract ends, he can do it only if he will play for Packers. After contract expires, he can, after 3 years unretired as FA.

2 points
2
0
canadapacker's picture

May 11, 2021 at 08:01 am

Not a real good comparison. There is a big big difference. Firstly Love has actually little experience at the NFL level other than being in the QB room and some practice. Rodgers had been there for 3 years developing skills and techniques, backing up and playing preseason and mop up. He had a good result against Dallas when #4 got hurt. #4 kept threatening to retire and the Organization was tired of that. So there is really no comparison other than #4 still had 2 good years left until he finally fell off the cliff physically. We know that management has the right for the next 3 years as to whether AR plays here or somewhere else - but it would be insane to move on from him now with at least 3 more good years left. Finally as I have been saying over and over - AR has only 13 years of actual playing on his body - whereas Brees , #4 , Rivers and E Manning all had 19. That makes a big difference

0 points
0
0
cheesehead1's picture

May 09, 2021 at 04:14 pm

Still hoping management doesn’t give in, but would still like to hear from Rodgers himself. If Aaron wants to retire, so be it. Only way I would consider trading him is if the offer was just too good to turn down and it would have to be off the charts. IMO, team comes first and foremost. As good a player as he is it’s a total team game……GPG!

8 points
10
2
LayingTheLawe's picture

May 09, 2021 at 06:13 pm

I am confused what great morass the Saints are in. In 2020 they win their division, won a playoff game and lost to the Bucs. Gee that seems familiar. Now their Qb retired and they have a talented if erratic vet and a backup that everyone on this site is sure is the superstar the Packers let get away as possible starters. By most reports they are in a much better cap position than the Packers. I always have seen the Saints as the Packers twin. They have a great back and receiver and have been searching for that additional target for years. I must have missed where they went all in to find it and have ruined themselves now.

-1 points
2
3
Irish_Cheesehead's picture

May 09, 2021 at 06:39 pm

Rodgers has all the talent in the world but damn I wish he had Brees’ leadership skills.

3 points
5
2
Point-Packer's picture

May 10, 2021 at 02:58 pm

This is another dumb comment. Rodgers teammates, with rare exception, speak incredibly highly of him and his leadership ability. Craig Lemmings is an exception, and what the hell did he do after he parted with #12? Absolutely nothing.

0 points
0
0
canadapacker's picture

May 11, 2021 at 07:27 am

You need to R-E-L-A-X - nuff said. I dont know how you can say that without any proof. I know that AR was a little POd with MM's game calling late in his tenure but other than that he always showed leadership and gave his best effort. Unlike #4 who for awhile late in his career just kept throwing the ball up and led the league in INT's and cost us a Superbowl appearance in a home game against the Giants with an INT in OT.

0 points
0
0
EricinGB's picture

May 09, 2021 at 07:02 pm

Not sure it's a good thing to be compared to the "worst" cap team in football...regardless, the Rodgers/Brees comparison as a cautionary tale is ridiculous, though one the Packers might want to falsely promote. Comparing one of the strongest passing arms (per NFL experts) against arguably one of the weakest arms with rotator cuff issues is perhaps what the Packers were thinking when they decided to draft Rodgers replacement giving up a 1st and a 4th in 2020 to do so. The only way the 2020 and 2021 drafts make sense is if the Packers replace Rodgers with their first round QB as planned in 2022 and trade Aaron Rodgers for "valuable" draft picks while hoping the offensive line replacements hold up and Rodgers' 2021 performance slides to validate the stratregy...but Rodgers has something to say too...fresh of an MVP season, we are now seeing the downside to this strategy...alienating and losing Rodgers a year earlier than "planned" with the apparent likelyhood Rodgers continues to play at an NFL pro-bowl level elsewhere through 2025 while the Packers surrender supremacy in the NFC division during the same period... what we are really witnessing is a cautionary tale on how not to manage an NFL franchise moving forward.

3 points
5
2
joejetson's picture

May 09, 2021 at 07:15 pm

Thinking back to a comparable scenario where a team with a talented young roster made a huge deal to trade a.superstar for a boatload of high draft picks. Anyone remember the early 90's Dallas Cowboys/Vikings Herschel Walker trade. The Cowboys had a young, unproven QB in Troy Aikman, one.good receiver in Michael Irvin, and.some other good young.players. They parlayed the boatload of high draft.picks into a solid lineup on both sides of the ball, Aikman improved, had great coaching with Jimmy.Johnson, and.the.result was a.dynasty. After watching so many gut wrenching playoff losses over Rodgers' career, due to bad defenses, I'd be willing to take a chance if GB.can.find.a rube GM to fleece for several high draft picks. Don't even.bother taking someones castoff QB (like a.David Carr). If they have to tank for a.year while Love learns.the ropes (like Aikman did) then that's the price you pay, plus you get another high draft pick. After that, it's Titletown Dynasty.again.

1 points
2
1
LayingTheLawe's picture

May 09, 2021 at 07:23 pm

The Packers comparison would be the other way around where they were the young talented team that thought they were just a qb away from playoffs so they went all in for John hadl and screwed the team over for about decade with a terrible aging qb who was awful even when he wasn't injured and no draft picks to build with.

1 points
1
0
byu.tech's picture

May 10, 2021 at 02:56 am

this is clearly an article written by the packers front office.
it is totally false.
garbage, pure garbage.
but it is line with this page, everybody knows they are totally in line with mark murphy. they are the murphy's speakers.

-8 points
1
9
Truderinger's picture

May 10, 2021 at 04:17 am

Sorry but this is grossly misleading.

Drew Brees was the second best Quarterback from 2017 to 2019 in terms of efficiency (EPA/play), with the first being Mahomes and he was the second best in accuracy (CPOE: Completion percentage over expectations), with the first being Russell Wilson. Yes he declined strongly this year, but only after playing at a top 5 QB level for three years straight after 2016.
This comparison annoys me so much because they take an exceptional season in terms of passing yards, than say that 271, 261, 271 (4336/ 4176/ 4336) is a steep decline, while AR just won MVP with 4,299 yards, but let's confuse the readers by switching from total yards to yards per game and taking the 4-th highest regular season passing yard total by any QB ever as a reference point.

The saints were robbed of their superbowl appearance in the 2018 season by that infamous non-PI-call, which is more than most franchises can claim in the last three seasons.

I also think it is wrong to conflate the failings of the Saints with the AR situation. The cap space comparison is completely different, Green Bay is not kicking the can down the road nearly as much as the Saints and the Covid-Situation hurts you twice as bad if you're over the cap which killed the saints. Extending with Rodgers for two more years would have nowhere near the impact as what the Saints have done with their whole roster.

Basically the argument of this article is: "From experience with Drew Brees we could very well have a top 5 QB the next three years but because one day he will decline, we should rather gamble a SB-capable roster on a first round pick that couldn't really convince in training in his first year, rather than playing with the reigning MVP". Really?

1 points
3
2
greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 05:41 am

Great work Bruce. Moving on from a great talent early rather than late is a kind of maxim. That time is now. How many here recall SF moving on from Montana to Young? Bill Walsh knew that was not going to be easy, but necessary.

There aren’t many teams who have a QB of legendary success, and plan ahead for another, and then plan ahead for another... I’m not sure it has ever been done before successfully. Teams try. This cautionary tale is real.

The Packers had a plan to make the transition for moving on, giving Rodgers a 4 year extension while surrounding him with the best talent they could. They chose Love to develop through the process, making a reasonably sound transition possible. Rodgers literally fell into our laps. Jordan Love literally fell into our laps. (Maybe God is a Packer fan).

AR does not want to be a part of that transition process. Something has made him change his mind after signing the extension a year or so ago. He no longer wishes to play for the Packers. League MVP. Make no mistake. Aaron Rodgers took a flame thrower to the Packers. What is the team to do?

Sell high to an AFC team.

3 points
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HankScorpio's picture

May 10, 2021 at 05:52 am

"Sell high to an AFC team."

There is zero doubt in my mind that his value is at its highest right now. Even if he matches 2020 play, he's a year older. And I seriously doubt he'll match it. In many ways, it was one of his best seasons ever.

At the end of that, the guy had the ball in his hands thrice. At home. SB on the line. And he didn't deliver. There is plenty of blame to go around. He takes some, too. If he cannot deliver in that moment, why not start moving on now with the help of a haul for trading him? Moving on is inevitable. The question centers on whether there is a real shot at another SB win with him. I don't think there is given that he's now outed as being discontented.

3 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 10, 2021 at 06:20 am

Well, GB surrounded AR with the best talent they could minus a first round talent and a fourth round talent. Most GMs surround their QB with the best talent they can.

-3 points
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greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 08:40 am

I'm saying this as a friend, TGR, but what is this argument without offering examples of players at #30 and whatever the R4 was last year? Who would have closed the deal? In my eyes, that would be impossible to know. We've heard countless arguments about what GB could have done had they not taken Love, but none of them can say with any certainty our outcome would have been different against Tom Brady and a stacked TB team, with a boatload of underpaid FAs looking to cash in on a Championship.

No one can know if a WR or ILB or DL available would have helped the Packers realize a SB win, much less an appearance.

4 DL were chosen after GB’s selection of Love. They were all duds. WRs take time to learn the system, and Patrick Queen? I don’t know that he would have brought a successful end in raising a Lombardi, nor does anyone else.

I think the Packers did their best, and it wasn’t enough. Pettine was allowed to walk for a reason. AR had arguably the #1 WR in the NFL, the #1 OL in the NFL, and the #1 set of RBs in the NFL. The Packers have done their best to bring everyone back for another legit shot.

By all appearances, Aaron doesn’t want to play for us.

3 points
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EricinGB's picture

May 10, 2021 at 07:45 am

WOW. Packers PR now appear to be floating out a Rodgers/Brees comparison as a cautionary tale. It is a comparison suggesting performance decline with age, and comparing Rodgers to Brees seems to be something a Packers proxie is attempting to promote. Comparing one of the strongest passing arms (per NFL experts) against arguably one of the weakest arms with rotator cuff issues suggest this is what the Packers were thinking when they decided to draft Rodgers replacement giving up a 1st and a 4th in 2020 to do so. The only way the 2020 and 2021 drafts make sense is if the Packers intended to replace Rodgers with their first round QB as planned in 2022 and trade Aaron Rodgers for "valuable" draft picks while expecting the offensive line replacements hold up while Rodgers' (expected?) 2021 performance slides to validate the stratregy...but Rodgers has something to say too...fresh of an MVP season, we are now seeing the downside to this strategy...alienating and losing Rodgers a year earlier than "planned" with his 2021 preformance suggesting the likelyhood Rodgers continues to play at an NFL pro-bowl level through 2025. Without Rodgers, Packers risk surrendering supremacy in the NFC division during the same period... time will tell if what we are really witnessing is a cautionary tale on how not to manage an NFL franchise moving forward.

-1 points
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greengold's picture

May 10, 2021 at 08:52 am

CHTV is not Packers PR. They are independent and not affiliated with the team.

People are simply offering what they can regarding what might be happening. None of us knows for sure. It is a hot time when your franchise QB who just won the NFL MVP declared via a trusted source hours before the draft that he will not be returning to your team.

I felt like someone had died in my family.

The drafts made sense. Being AR was a year older than Favre, with a perfect talent for LaFleur's system dropping the equivalent of more than 2 First Round picks, coming off a season playing with a leg fracture, the Jordan Love selection seems entirely reasonable, and prudent.

Which WR was going to get us past TB last year? Which defensive player was going to stop Tom Brady? Rob Gronkowski?

These really are all empty arguments that have no bearing on what is happening now. It is history, and it looks like Aaron Rodgers is too, in Green Bay, judging by his stance, which he has not discredited.

You can't make a player play for you. Rodgers knows this was his last leverage shot. He took it. The Packers are now forced to adjust. Sit him??? Possible. Trade him??? I think that has already happened in principle. We'll find out 3 weeks from tomorrow.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

May 10, 2021 at 08:59 am

One thing that puzzles me is the assumption that Rodgers play last year is a sort of immutable asset in future. In fact, over his career it was a high point. The chances of a recurrence are small even if the team around him is healthier (unlikely) or better.

The likelihood is somewhat of a reversion to the mean even without the age factor. We can gamble on Rodgers beating the aging curve but understand that that’s what it is, and even if he does, there is no guarantee that he is as good as last year, in fact the odds are against it.

5 points
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byu.tech's picture

May 10, 2021 at 10:23 am

bruce irons in mark murphy new nickname.

-1 points
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1
Point-Packer's picture

May 10, 2021 at 12:26 pm

I love how all the "Packers org can do no wrong" folks are rationalizing this massive shit show the organization created for itself. Rodgers wants to control his own destiny and as he has said a million times before, wants to do it while in the green and gold. GB want's flexibility to jettison an "aging" QB when he has kicked the can. Problem is that Rodgers isn't showing signs of , "aging" or slowing down. And he is nowhere near Drew Brees in the context of arm strength, injury history or style. The comparison is laughable. As is this attempt at journalism.

1 points
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HankScorpio's picture

May 10, 2021 at 06:47 pm

"Problem is that Rodgers isn't showing signs of , "aging" or slowing down. "

There are not many that would have made that statement 365 days ago. Let's not re-write history to suggest otherwise. He channeled the chip on his shoulder named Jordan Love into a fountain of youth season, in many ways his best ever.

I think the chances of that repeating itself in GB are very slim. If they were to trade him, that fire could drive him on with the new team for a few more years, potentially. But the Rodgers that will play in GB is probably like the 2018/2019 guy, not the 2020 guy.

0 points
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Point-Packer's picture

May 10, 2021 at 09:21 pm

"Probably like the 2018/2019 guy". You don't know that. The 2020 guy was the league's MVP, so even a step back from that is pretty damned good. I also don't buy this "channeled the chip on his shoulder" mumbo jumbo. How about he was more comfortable with the offense and the players around him in year two? And he didn't have to deal with a predictable stale Mashed Potato Mike offense for another year. I'll take that theory over some chip on his shoulder making him the best football player on the planet.

Further, the problems with Rodgers 2018/2019 weren't necessarily age related. Nor were they that bad. He had a 97.6 QB rating in 2018- with a stale Mashed Potato Mike offense. And a 95.2 in 2019 - with a new offense. More than 2/3 of the teams in the NFL would have been delighted with that from their QB in those two seasons.

What are the chances that Jordan Love is a long-term starter in this league? Low based on the percentage of 1st round QBs that actually "make it in the NFL". Even lower for the % that are HOF. Even lower than those who will retire and be known as easily in the top ten of all time - if not top five.

Lets not write the future.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

May 10, 2021 at 01:07 pm

I so want Rodgers as the QB in 2021. He has a surrounding cast that gives him the best chance for a Lombardi since 2010...perhaps even a better supporting cast.

If being a two time SB Champ is less important than soothing his hurt ego, feelings, fragile personality...then I think he should sit out for a year, or retire...or trade him to Jacksonville. Fresh start with a bunch of rookies. Good luck.

The Pack would recoup a good chunk of the gaudy contract that made him the highest NFL paid player at the time...and he would get his wish to "start over" with a rebuilding team.

As a fan, it would be a more exciting year with Rodgers at QB, but it would also be an exciting year with Love and the surrounding cast he would play with.

I believe the Packer roster is talented and deep for 2021. As a second year QB...with Matt as your coach...this will be a better situation for Love than Rodgers got in 2008. The Sanders Defense was awful.

-1 points
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1
Reghamster's picture

May 11, 2021 at 03:46 am

An interesting piece but as I have watched football over the years my ideas about the game have changed. For the organization and its players, the goal is obviously to win the Super Bowl. I am not so sure anymore about me or maybe many of the weekly fans. I was reminded of how Eli Manning won 2 Super Bowls ( one notably after beating the Packers in the NFC championship) . The question is would you rather watch the Giants team those years or all the exciting non Super Bowl winning teams of Brett Brett Favre and A Rodgers? 16 to 18 games that are thrilling without a Super Bowl victory versus a boring team success and Super bowl victoryin 19 games. Pay Rodgers his excessive long term money so we can witness his greatness with no more Super Bowls and his eventual decline and ultimately the Packers too. Somewhere along the line maybe we can take the pay hit and get another good qb meanwhile 4 or 5 good fun years of entertainment!

0 points
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Reghamster's picture

May 11, 2021 at 03:47 am

An interesting piece but as I have watched football over the years my ideas about the game have changed. For the organization and its players, the goal is obviously to win the Super Bowl. I am not so sure anymore about me or maybe many of the weekly fans. I was reminded of how Eli Manning won 2 Super Bowls ( one notably after beating the Packers in the NFC championship) . The question is would you rather watch the Giants team those years or all the exciting non Super Bowl winning teams of Brett Brett Favre and A Rodgers? 16 to 18 games that are thrilling without a Super Bowl victory versus a boring team success and Super bowl victoryin 19 games. Pay Rodgers his excessive long term money so we can witness his greatness with no more Super Bowls and his eventual decline and ultimately the Packers too. Somewhere along the line maybe we can take the pay hit and get another good qb meanwhile 4 or 5 good fun years of entertainment!

-1 points
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1
4thand10's picture

May 12, 2021 at 12:40 pm

Big difference....Rodgers can still chuck it 50 yrds down the field. He is 38. Huge difference between 38 and 42. Rodgers has said he wants to play until age 40. He still overthrows deep balls...so plenty of arm .Brady is 43? and hasn’t ever been asked very much to chuck it beyond 30 yrds...his offense has just rarely been designed that way.It’s always been centered around running and TE play....kinda like what the packers are trying to do now.

If I were the Packers, keep him until 41. Deal with him and try to get him weapons.

0 points
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