Don't Be Too Quick to Write Off Dean Lowry

Can Pack afford to release a dependable veteran from a unit that is already weak?

When Packer fans offer their list of veterans who need to be cut for the team to get under the 2021 salary cap, defensive lineman Dean Lowry seems to be at or near the top of everyone's list.  

  

If you just go by the financial numbers, it makes sense.   Releasing the sixth year former Northwestern star would save $3.3 million dollars off the cap immediately.  Cutting him with a June 1 designation would save $4.8 million.   

  

Lowry has two years remaining on a contract extension that averages just under $7 million per year.  For a team that is scrambling to get far enough under the cap to pay its draft picks, extend Davante Adams, take a last shot at re-signing Aaron Jones or Corey Linsley, and be a bargain shopper in the free agent market,  cutting Lowry seems like a no-brainer. 

  

But it's not. 

  

For one thing, defensive line is the weakest position group on the team.  After Kenny Clark and Lowry, you've got Tyler Lancaster, Kingsley Keke, Willington Previlon, Billy Winn and Delontae Scott.  You're not winning any Super Bowls with that bunch.  Montravious Adams is going to be a free agent and Snacks Harrison was likely just a rental for last year's playoff run. 

  

It's not a great year for D-linemen in the draft, especially when you're sitting back in the 29 slot.  Creating enough cap space to sign a meaningful free agent, such as J.J. Watt, does not seem probable,  given the other places money has to go.  The players who are affordable are not much better than Lowry. 

  

And despite perceptions to the contrary, Lowry had an okay regular season in 2020.  Not great, but okay.  Lowry had three sacks.  By comparison, Clark had two.  Lowry had seven QB hurries.  Clark had 6.  Lowry had ten quarterback pressures.  Clark had 12.   Lowry had 36 total tackles to Clark's 42.   

  

The comparison pales a bit when you consider that Clark missed three games, but that could also be considered a testament to Lowry's availability.  He's missed just one game in five years, and that was in his rookie year of 2016.   

  

Pro Football Focus, whose complex grading system no one seems to understand, rates Lowry at a slightly above average 57.3 and, among defensive linemen, puts him in the top 25 in the league in assisted tackles. 

  

No, he's not winning any defensive player of the year awards, and the Packers could surely use the cap space from Dean Lowry's contract.  But the reality is, they may not be able to do without him.  At least not until they find a way to increase the talent level at this position. 

 

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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Comments (63)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
egbertsouse's picture

March 01, 2021 at 06:41 am

Cut him and pick up a guy off the street. Gutey needs to get over his man-crush on this guy.

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murf7777's picture

March 01, 2021 at 06:53 am

Just getting another average DL in FA isn’t going to do it over Lowry. What we need is another impact player on the D and that person is JJ Watt. Yes, there are risk of injury, but if he is healthy, especially in the playoffs watch out he is a difference maker that will make every other player on the defense better. We also can afford him by structuring the contract backend loaded. He is worth the risk of injury.

Some say he is a DE in a 4-3 and out of position in a 3-4, I say hog-wash he can play 1-5T on any DL and be highly effective.

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stockholder's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:06 am

Release him and change the front. Lowrey isn't what we need. And Gute knows it. How many Times did we say Graham had to go. Well Lowrey does too. The Defense won't change unless they start drafting the positions needed to fix it. How many times did TT let the BPA go for need? (see Watt vs King) Well- Need has to stop this year. Need got filled by pick-ups.!!! (LAST YEAR!) And as long as Gute wants Rodgers out the door by drafting his replacement. He's not expecting to win now. So change the front. As long as we have the Smiths. It can be done. Just move KE KE out to DE. And with so many Edge /DE in this year draft. Time for change is now. The destruction of the roster started last year. The Cap only helped see the Truth. Cut Lowrey!

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:13 am

Lowry might not be on the roster next year and he might be. But IMO, if Lowry is back he needs to be more of a rotational guy. While he did play well down the stretch, he is not a difference making type of player. He is a solid player. But just not a top tier starter.

If we could add a guy like JJ Watt, Lowry would really benefit from having him. Lowry would be more of a rotational guy at that point. He won't be the top of the line rotation. And if he would start he would be playing next to Clark, Watt, Za'Darius and Gary/Preston.

Regardless of what happens with Watt or any other players they bring in, if Lowry stays, they need to improve the other players on the DL. They need better depth and players along the DL.

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cuervo's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:14 am

By cutting him and saving anywhere from 3.3 to 4.8 million makes this a no brainer. The issue isn't that Lowry is an "OK" player, the issue is that you don't pay an "OK" player 7 million/year, expecially when he's reached his ceiling as far as performance goes.

You can find Dean Lowry type players easily and for far less.

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flackcatcher's picture

March 01, 2021 at 11:12 am

(Stares at comment. Sadly shakes head...) Says the commentor who is NOT Brian Gutekunst, who is trying to build a team for a third straight NFC/superbowl run.

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:36 pm

That's pretty much the way it is. If they want a rotational guy, he has to take a pay cut. He would fair better as a 4-2/4-3 DE.

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MTmind's picture

March 02, 2021 at 10:23 am

How did your comment receive a half thumbs up and another half (.5) thumbs down? Never saw that before. Fat thumb hitting the like/dislike button at the same time?

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Turophile's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:32 am

Don't be too quick to...............too late.

Seriously, though, if his bang-for-buck is decent, you keep him until there is someone better on the roster, be it a free agent or a draft pick in the first two days of the draft.

I'm no cap expert, but a glance at spotrac seems to show cutting him would save about $3m this year (pre-June) and almost $7m next year. Under normal circumstances I'd be tempted to keep him through 2021, and look to replace him at the end of the upcoming season, but given the strain to stay under a low cap, it may force a cut this year.

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Guam's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:54 am

It would be easy to cut Lowery but much harder to replace him given the cap dollars available. There just isn't enough cap savings by cutting him to get an upgraded replacement. Like RCPackerFan, I think Lowery is a better rotational player than starter, but given the significant lack of talent on the Packer D-line he is the second best D-lineman on the roster right now. With the draft weak in D-line talent and the Packers very tight cap situation cutting Lowery could leave the D-line weaker, not stronger.

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flackcatcher's picture

March 01, 2021 at 11:16 am

So true.

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:43 pm

Cut Lowry and P Smith then get after Leonard Williams as a free agent DE. Draft another EDGE guy with a high pick.

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TarynsEyes's picture

March 01, 2021 at 08:29 am

The salary cap issue is being used to make moves that should be made anyway. If a player isn't playing to his paid money level, get rid of him, even if you're already in the black with salary cap money. If you can get the same for less, you do it, and use the extra money on one or more who earn their paychecks.

This applies to every position, and these days the QB position more so, if just to get the market value under control for QBs, and to enable the money to be spent elsewhere, and in ways that benefit the team.

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Razer's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:04 am

...to enable the money to be spent elsewhere, and in ways that benefit the team...

The crux of the issue, whether it is Lowery or anybody else.

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Guam's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:57 am

Either you've changed or I have, Taryn. I find myself agreeing with more and more of your posts.....:)

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PeteK's picture

March 01, 2021 at 02:01 pm

Her true self comes to the surface after loses and ugly wins. Timex has nothing on her.

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TarynsEyes's picture

March 01, 2021 at 05:02 pm

With near 99% here constantly ranting and raving to the highlight reel, of a good or bad game, I find myself compelled to keep as many of you as grounded as possible to see what is coming, and the ensuing result that repeats itself constantly as like the highlight reel.

You're Welcome!!!

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PeteK's picture

March 01, 2021 at 06:56 pm

I guess some people are too young to realize that the Timex comment is a compliment. Most try to give opinions in a creative and entertaining manner, you check both boxes.

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Razer's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:05 am

Pretty sad state of affairs when we must consider keeping the well paid, average personnel who play on, arguably, the weakest unit on the team. Other than long arms, Lowery doesn't collapse the pocket, demand double teams or play the run all that well. Keep his contract why? If we are going to apply this logic to this caliber of player then why not extend a contract to Kevin King and keep the status quo in the secondary.

We need to get better - period. Better drafting, better contract management, better coaching and better players. Surely the savings on Lowery and Preston can help us pick up a solid DT cap casualty.

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:45 am

If the unit is so weak, and Pettine so incompetent we fired him, then how did we manage to put above average defenses on the field the last two years?

And if Clark is a stud (and he is), then how bad do Lowry, Lancaster and Keke have to be for them to be considered a weak unit?

Cutting our second best guy, who NEVER misses games, doesn’t make the Dline stronger. Drafting a Day Two guy and lining him up next to Clark for the next four years is a long-term upgrade. Keep Lowry, Lancaster, and Keke for another year to round out the DL.

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Demon's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:49 pm

im glad the Packers dont listen to you. if you had your way Ted Thompson would still be GM, McCarthy would still coach, we would still have Nick Perry on the roster, Rodgers would have been released, Lamar Jackson would be QB, Pettine would still be DC and now you want to see Lowery retained. are you afraid of change or are you satisfied easily? in addition to the aforementioned you also believe that Adams and a bunch of schlubs at WR are good enough. and that an average D that at times can be god awful is good enough too. keep aiming low Leatherhead , its easier and less disppointing when you do

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:39 pm

Thank you, Demon, for attempting to make a coherent argument rather than your usual chickenshit downvote.

I am not in favor of dead people being GM. So that’s just baloney from inside your head.

Just because I made an argument, two seasons ago, that we might as well have Perry on the team if we were going to pay him millions not to play that year doesn’t mean I want him on the team now. That’s more head baloney.

Lamar Jackson would be our QB. You got that right. Rodgers would have been traded for picks and cap savings.

Pettine put above average defenses on the field; we’ll see how the new guy does.

Lowry is our second best lineman. Why aren’t you in favor of replacing Keke and Lancaster first?

Adams and the Schlubs were one of the top receiving units in the league.

Not afraid of change, but changing to get worse makes less sense to me than it does to you.

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Demon's picture

March 01, 2021 at 01:14 pm

When others were calling for TT to be replaced your arguement was always the guy who replaces him might be worse. The same for McCarthy. How did those replacements work?

As for AR that would also have been a mistake, as his recent MVP season would prove.

I have no idea how the new DC will be but I would hope that he would call the right D at the end of a half in the NFC title game.

As for Lowry and the rest of the DL not named Clark, Id like to see them all replaced. The reason most fans target Lowry is because of his 7 mil salary. Thats not getting much bang for your buck.

It does appear that you are afraid of change.

Btw I didnt think we were supposed to call each other derrogatory names any more. Like "chickenshit, stupid, dumbass" among others that you have used. Yes I do downvote posts from you that I disagree with. It is completely within the rules.

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 03:08 pm

Not going to get into it with you, Demon. You’ve admitted to doing chickenshit stuff, you have a history of trying to prevent people from expressing opinions you don’t like, and judging by the way you obsess and twist things from two years ago.....there’s probably some mental illness as well.

God commands me to not torment people like you, so I’ll be ignoring you. Others can decide for themselves; it’s called freedom of choice and it used to be considered a good thing. If you’re the guy I think you are, you’ll take some shots at me since I’ve told you I won’t shoot back.

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Demon's picture

March 01, 2021 at 06:20 pm

You're a real class act aren't you?

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JerseyAl's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:02 pm

Can we all just stop this childish garbage and name calling? Yes? Great! Thank You.

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PeteK's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:19 pm

hahahaha It's ok all the older teenagers are by the swings and they can have the sandbox all to themselves.

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TarynsEyes's picture

March 01, 2021 at 11:13 am

"If the unit is so weak, and Pettine so incompetent we fired him, then how did we manage to put above average defenses on the field the last two years?"

The defenses are ranked above average based on the teams they play, and the Packers play more of a lesser schedule of equipped offenses than others. Many here claim this very point about New England all through their dynasty. The Packers have had the same benefit, maybe not to the same length in years as NE, but GB always seems to have the defense that losses the games when against the better, especially in post season match-ups. Yes, we have won playoff games and played in the NFCCG a few times, which always comes to the same conclusion, we were misdiagnosed by the PFF (Gospel) and the dedication of its fans to denying what they witness and know to be the truer facts, and GB looks amateurish in the bigger games. Rinse-repeat, rinse-repeat, rinse-repeat....

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:52 pm

We looked amateurish? We were first and goal at the 8!! That’s how close we were.

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TarynsEyes's picture

March 01, 2021 at 01:30 pm

Yes, and then the amateurish decisions came into play. If you don't like that word, how about non-winner decisions. The former at least leads one to believe growth is possible, the latter just says loser.

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 02:37 pm

So letting the MVP throw to one of the top receivers in the league is amateurish?

I would have run more and passed less, but putting the game in the hands of your two best players isn’t amateurish.

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Razer's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:02 pm

If you want to believe that we have an above average defense because of stats then good on you for finding your religion. Giving up 31 points against teams that matter doesn't say "good defense" to me. And, if Lowery is our second best guy on the D-line, well then I guess I understand you.

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 02:43 pm

7 of those points came when an offensive turnover putTampa in first and goal. Minus that, we win, even with the 7 King gave up. 3 takeaways. 67 yards rushing. That’s not bad defense.

And Lowry is the second best DL we have. Wishing it wasn’t true doesn’t change that. And it’s not about stats. The Packer defense held quite a few teams under 21. That didn’t happen by accident.

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PeteK's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:20 pm

The weakness against the run disappeared in the latter part of the season. I would let Lowry go, if we could sign one of the Giant free agent DTs.

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 08:01 pm

Not for 3 million.

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Guam's picture

March 01, 2021 at 10:02 am

Preston gets cut just to get to the cap - there is no "savings" that can be used for another player. That means you have to replace Lowery with only Lowery's savings. If Gute can somehow work some magic and get a great DL for $3.3 million, cut Lowery and do it. I just don't think that is likely to happen.

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Razer's picture

March 01, 2021 at 11:54 am

I get it. So now we are not talking about upgrading the D-line - we are talking about just making it to the starting gate with enough funds to sign a draft class. People need to understand that the choice is closer to "keeping Lowery or signing your draft class".

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Guam's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:19 pm

The only upgrade I see on the Packer D-line will be a draft choice and that is only if one of the few decent DLs falls to the Pack. Not a happy situation. I promised myself I would stop harping on the Love draft choice, but here I go again...... If we had drafted a DL last year at #1 (Blacklock, Davis, etc.), that guy would be taking a second year jump this year and might have been a real asset on the DL in 2021. Instead we are stuck in the same spot on the DL and Love will likely continue to carry a clipboard in 2021. Arrrgh......

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 01, 2021 at 01:04 pm

None of the D linemen selected after Love amounted to squat last season and contributed about the same. The value Love presented was the best route to take. Would Gladney have done a better job at CB, we don't know?

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Guam's picture

March 01, 2021 at 03:38 pm

Sorry but I disagree. Blacklock and Davis both played significant minutes for their teams and did okay. And both will be better this year, their second year. And I suspect both will rate better than any Packer D-lineman not named Clark in 2021.

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 03:17 pm

If the Packers add a Defensive lineman who is better than Lowry, Lancaster and Keke, and he stays healthy, then our defensive line is better. The unit is stronger with Lowry for another year.

I don’t think it’s an either/or scenario. There are cuts that could be made before that, if need be.

Getting rid of your second best defensive lineman does not make the unit better. Adding a better guy does, but you still need good depth.

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Lphill's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:16 am

Nobody cries more about the cap then the Green Bay Packers.

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13TimeChamps's picture

March 01, 2021 at 11:33 am

Based on your numerous past posts....(basically wanting to sign every 'name' free agent that comes available)....nobody knows less about the cap than you.

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PeteK's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:03 pm

I think Arizona knows less.

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:21 am

Dean Lowery is an interception machine. Deep down in places we don’t talk about parties, as long as Trubisky plays for the Bears, we want Lowery on that line. We need him on that line.

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Packers0808's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:23 am

On another subject offense line, don't a lot of people over look the signing of Lane Taylor on the cheap for the O line IF his health is back strong? Seems reasonable to consider him!

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:54 am

Taylor has had season ending injuries, early in the season, two years in a row. I’m kind of wondering if his body just can’t take an NFL pounding anymore . If you cut a younger guy to keep him and he goes on IR again.......

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:54 am

Taylor has

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Packers0808's picture

March 01, 2021 at 10:23 am

Yup exactly why I said IF his health is really good! Agreed!

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:55 am

Taylor has

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:56 am

These pop up ads are not my friend.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:31 am

I read 4 QB hits for Lowry. Comparing a DE to a zero/one technique is apples to oranges. Lowry buckles at the LOS. He's not a DT. He isn't stout enough. He doesn't have enough pass rush for DE. He is the epitome of meh. Moreover, he has gotten worse every year, a factor to consider carefully. 2020 was his worst year, and one has to wonder why anyone should expect better in 2021.

Lowry won't magically be better if he is rotational. He only played 601 snaps as it is. He was close to rotational as it is at 59% of snaps. Clark had 595 in 13 games (58% but he'd played over 70% of the snaps in the games he played in). That's not great for a DE or a DT. It is fine for an NT.

Either Gute thinks he can get an upgrade, or at least someone who can do some aspect of football well, for the same money ($3.3M) or less, whether it through free agency or the draft, or he doesn't. It might help to know how Barry is going to approach the DL, but I doubt it.

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CheesyTex's picture

March 01, 2021 at 10:15 am

Words of wisdom.

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 03:42 pm

TGR... I think you’re off target here a little.

First, you’re positioning this as Gutekunst overpaying for the epitome of meh, and that he actually has gotten worse since he was signed to a deal. I would submit that the GM and Russ Ball are good at their job and know what they’re doing.

But it’s your snap count argument that caught my interest. He “only” played more snaps than any other defensive lineman because Clark was injured? Avail-ability is an important quality and shouldn’t be dismissed so casually.

Great is not the enemy of good.. Lowry does a lot of dirty work that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet but is felt on the field. I don’t think we can replace him with a better alternative with the money we’d save by cutting him, but if we can fine. But this guy will be starting for somebody else then. He’s 26, Northwestern smart, durable as pig iron, 6’7”, 300+ pounds......guys like this don’t grow on trees. I’d keep him for another year.

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PeteK's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:16 pm

That's the problem he's not 300+ and gets pushed back like he's wearing roller skates too many times. I believe we could get cap relief and draft picks especially for Preston, but these June cap or trade rules are frustrating.

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Swisch's picture

March 01, 2021 at 09:39 am

It seems we may need Dean Lowry next season in some significant role regardless of what we do in free agency and the draft.
We can hope that at age 26 he is still improving as a player, or at the least will continue to be solid and dependable.
If Lowry is better with less snaps, perhaps we rotate him with another player already on the roster such as Keke, while also working in a draft selection.
If not Dean Lowry, who else is out there that is not only better, but reasonably obtainable?

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ricky's picture

March 01, 2021 at 10:24 am

It's truly a sad situation when Dean Lowry is considered an important part of the D-line. And quite probably the second best player in that group. Missing on Adams now looms very large. Hopefully Keke can turn those flashes of talent into regular production.

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Razer's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:21 pm

Draft misses across the board are coming home to roost for today's Packers. We have been forced into higher priced FA and handcuffed into signing average players. I would extend that to the D-line even though we haven't invested much more than mid to lower round picks these last 5 years. I am hoping that the scouting staff exodus when Gutekunst took over results in better player evaluations and selection going forward.

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flackcatcher's picture

March 01, 2021 at 12:45 pm

Nah.... Gute fixed a terrible situation out of the box with the FA signings of the Smiths and Amos and Turner. If you want to complain about the Cap, then you'll have to go back to 2017 when Mark Murphy extended Aaron Rodgers when we had no GM, and left Gute with a small Cap when he was hired as GM. Gute and Russ Ball have been excellent at handling the small Cap numbers over the past three years. Real football, like life does not happen in a vacuum.

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CoachDino's picture

March 01, 2021 at 03:53 pm

I agree that Dean Lowery has value. Plus great job on noting the stats may be skewed due to snaps considering KC's injuries/missed game. Though another major factor would be double teams. How often is KC double teamed compared to DL. Always to Never is not all that far off.

Like so often DL is a product of expectations. if he was making a notch above min. he would be fine, problem is he was awarded a contract that required higher performance to meet the value expectation.

IMO the DL is not the issue why the Packers didn't make the SB. OL injuries, KK and Chad S were the reasons. The DL ended up doing fine, even shutting down some heavy run teams. DL did, to your point, have some good games.

The Packers just need either the 3 tech or the 5 tech to start producing a legit pass rush. If KC is being double teamed, Gary, Z and preston also rushing DL should be piling up some stats. He's not. I hope they can restructure his contract and keep him as depth or rotational. Keke was hurt as well and I still think he can be a force.

IMO if the Packers due land a stud IDL, once again I agree with your assessment of the IDL depth in this draft, it could create complete havoc. I like Alim McNiell as a possibility of a 2 Gap IDL that can play Nose or 3 tech and really push the pocket, stuff the run, shoot a gap and command a double team. So many of the IDL with any pass rush are 1 gap shooters. Barmore and Alim to me are the best bets for the Packers.

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Leatherhead's picture

March 01, 2021 at 04:31 pm

McNeil is interesting, but there are several guys projected to go on Day Two that could help the line.

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PeteK's picture

March 01, 2021 at 07:28 pm

He would be a great fit , but I just don't think we can draft a DT before the 3rd round with glaring needs at T and CB. However, if Runyon can play RT and Step G, Hmmmm..

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CoachDino's picture

March 02, 2021 at 03:51 pm

You hit it right on the nose.... If we don't need Oline help then they can look elsewhere. Oline to me is Priority 1 then CB.

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