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Cory's Corner: Will Brian Gutekunst Deal Picks?

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Cory's Corner: Will Brian Gutekunst Deal Picks?

Everyone is clamoring for whom the Packers will take with their first pick in the NFL Draft on April 26. 

With teams jockeying for position for the top four quarterback prospects in Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen, the Packers will have an interesting choice at No. 14.

According to NFL.com’s Charlie Casserly, he thinks the Packers will take Central Florida cornerback Mike Hughes. ESPN’s Mel Kiper has the Packers taking Marcus Davenport from Texas-San Antonio, while ESPN’s Todd McShay has the Packers picking Iowa cornerback Josh Jackson. CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco pegs the Packers taking Alabama free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The point is, all four of those guys gave a different answer, yet all four answers were solid choices, with three defensive backs and one edge rusher.

The question is, what do they do next? Both Kiper and McShay have Boston College edge rusher Harold Landry going No. 25 to Tennessee. Do the Packers package a second rounder and two fourth rounders to get a guy that was first among all edge rushers in three of the five different events at the NFL Scouting Combine?

Or do they trade with New England at No. 31 and get another cornerback with Jackson — who had an absurd 27 passes defended this past season.

The Packers will get a much-needed difference maker with the first pick. If teams are willing to move mountains to get a quarterback, Green Bay may have a chance to grab another difference maker with the second pick.

This draft is where general manager Brian Gutekunst can stamp his philosophy into the Packers lexicon. He said he was going to do things different, which means taking some chances in order to win now.

Trading away picks wasn’t something that Ted Thompson liked to do, but with Aaron Rodgers set to get basically a blank check in the next few weeks, the only difference makers left are through the draft.

And with nine picks from the fourth through the seventh round, this is a perfect year to package picks to get some more value for a team that is in desperate need of defensive impact talent.

Is Gutekunst ready to deal?

-------------------

Cory Jennerjohn is a graduate from UW-Oshkosh and has been in sports media for over 15 years. He was a co-host on "Clubhouse Live" and has also done various radio and TV work as well. He has written for newspapers, magazines and websites. He currently is a columnist for CHTV and also does various podcasts. He recently earned his Masters degree from the University of Iowa. He can be found on Twitter: @Coryjennerjohn

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (124) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

The TKstinator's picture

All about value when it comes to moving up or down. The thing I really don’t trust is that “draft choice value” chart they all seem to rely on. Is that 6th round pick going to turn into the next Terrell Davis or Tom Brady? Or is it Caleb Schlauderaff? Kennard Backman, anyone?

Turophile's picture

The value chart is just an approximate guide. Where the value lies within it, is different every year because each draft is unique. For me, a higher 2nd round pick (than #45) is especially valuable this year (FOR THE PACKERS) because they want a starter-level CB and there are 5 that are late 1st early 2nd guys. I'd also like to see a higher round three pick because of all the receivers clumped together with 2nd round ability - some will slip to round three.

For me, unless there is a higher tier player left on the board when the Packers pick (and I don't think there will be), they are at the top of the next tier of players in round one. That means there is little difference between picks 14 and, say, 20. I'd try to engineer a trade down in round one, giving more ammunition for trading up in 2 and 3, maybe even getting an extra third. All in all not that different to what [email protected] proposes in his post, lower down.

Now that is a lot of movement, and as always, it takes two teams to make a trade, but that is how I'd like to see the draft go.

Archie's picture

Gute will rebuild our pass rush this year. Marcus Davenport will be there at 14 and he will be the pick. He is BPA and exactly what we need. Now if Fitzpatrick falls to 14 as is being bantered about, that may change things as he is ready to play full-time day 1. I like Vea too and he might be there if Skins decide to go in a different direction at 13, but we have two DL studs now and often go with just two so it doesn't make sense. But if top 2 are gone, Vea should be a strong consideration.

Could they trade down in R1? They could I suppose but the talent seems to break a bit after Davenport & Vea. But somebody might want the 5th QB bad enough to entice Gute if board has been emptied of pass rush talent and nobody has dropped like Fitzpatrick.

Round 2 & 3 picks could be any position. Plenty of WR and CB will be available in 2nd, 3rd & 4th rounds. Top 3 TEs will be gone before our R2 pick but somebody good will drop through. Heck, I'd jump all over Harold Landry or Arden Key in R2 if they fell. I'd even do a small trade up to grab Landry. Maybe an OL they love will fall through. Anything is possible with that 2nd pick.

marpag1's picture

Maybe. Let's wait and find out.

Chund@blackdiamondtek.com's picture

I like the idea if moving back initially (unless Edmunds is there) with either Chargers #17 + (get 3rd) or NE at #23 + (2nd). Take Landry for Edge in 1st, then you have high picks to get strong help at CB, WR, OL. Then you can use the 9 picks in RD 4-7, to move up and grab players you have targeted. We can't draft projects with 3 year development windows. Need impact players this year or next.

carlos's picture

I like the idea of having so many picks. Would like to see what Gute can do with them all, especially in those later rounds. He’s supposed to be a talent finder and am excited to see some late round gems. I’d only trade down in the first round if I could foresee two potential day one starters available. Practice squad could be a good landing spot for some late round picks if we can get some quality veteran depth.

Minniman's picture

My only concern with the practice squad option is having the player that you most want to 'stash' there snapped up by someone else - ala Taysom Hill.

egbertsouse's picture

These guy were all trained by Uncle Ted. I don’t see them getting rid of picks.

4thand1's picture

Ted was trained by Ron Wolfe.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

TT moved up at times, giving up picks. CM3, Worthy, Spriggs, Burnett, and Hundley come to mind right away. That's 5 out of his 13 drafts, and I probably forgot some other examples.

Spock's picture

TGR, That's right and (if I recall correctly) some of those trades were with the New England Patriots where TT actually got the better of the trade. I believe a draft day trade with Belicheck is the reason we got CM3.

Nick Perry's picture

My hope is the Packers use some of those day 3 picks to try and move back up into the 2nd and/or 3rd rounds. They have that first pick of day 3 pick again and could possibly move back into the 2nd or 3rd to make sure they get a shot at a WR like Sutton, Washington, or even DJ Moore.

I have no problem with Landry, Davenport, or Josh Jackson in the first round though I'd prefer both Landry and Jackson over Davenport..Davenport scares me a little. My first choice though is Landry simply because the CB depth is far greater in this draft than edge players or pass rushers.

I've also developed a "Draft Crush" on a player I'm hoping the Packers can possibly draft in the 4th or 5th round... Duke Ejiofor of Wake Forest could turn out to be a really interesting piece, especially in a Pettine Defense.

Hey guys...I'm sure most know but The CHTV Draft Guide came out yesterday and it's another homer by Jersey Al and all the other CHTV writers. Just wanted to say Thanks to ALL those who put in all the hard work to bring us the CHTV Draft Guide!

Nice Mock Draft Al!

dobber's picture

"My hope is the Packers use some of those day 3 picks to try and move back up into the 2nd and/or 3rd rounds."

I understand this desire and I'd like to see a bunch of early round picks fall into the Packers' lap, but people seem to be thinking that all those later round picks will add up to lots of early round picks...which just isn't true.

If you take all the Packers 5-7 round picks and add it to the first pick in the 4th round, that adds about 130 points on the JJ draft value chart. That puts the Packers' new pick...right in the middle of round 3, adjacent to their current higher round 3 pick, and would leave the Packers with the following 1, 2, 3, 3, 4. Done...you've netted one third round pick. The only way the Packers really inflate their number of picks EARLY in the draft is to 1) trade higher-value players, 2) trade off 2019 picks for 2018 picks (robbing Peter to pay Paul), or 3) trade down in rounds 1 or 2.

All those picks in the later rounds might look nice, but they're not much more in trade than ammo for moving up or down a couple spots in the middle rounds.

Nick Perry's picture

Don't forget the day three picks also would include the 4th round picks as well. Right now the Packers have the first pick of the 4th round, the 101st overall pick as well as the 133rd overall pick also in the 4th. Just with those two picks the Packers could move back to the bottom third of the 3rd round again. Those two 4th round picks are worth 136 points.

I also noticed for example the Packers 4th round comp pick is listed as a 5th round pick in the 3 charts I looked at.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

Not if you package them with the pick your moving up from. You only do it if there is a guy there you really want. But your right that it is not fesible to pick up a bunch of extra picks in even day 2.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

You got 6 upvotes for saying basically the same thing I said and got downvotes for. It's weird to me how this site is now. I never down vote people for having an opinion or by name, but I think it happens a lot.

Nick Perry's picture

Depending who's posting I already know of a few people who probably don't ever read the comment Jeremy, they see the name and "Downvote" it because of WHO said it, not WHAT the comment actually is about. Believe it or not some of actually have enemies here which is really weird since I've never met any of you.

Many of us have asked for the old way of voting here where the name is associated with the vote but it's never changed which I'm sure Al has his reasons for.

I for one enjoy your thoughts and comments and read most of them. Just like I do with many of the "Regulars" who have been here for years under the SAME name.

dobber's picture

There's one person here who seems to know who I am (they called me by name once), but never revealed who they were. There's another who went to HS with my older siblings. Otherwise, yeah, it's pretty much blind.

Spock's picture

I always vote on the comment. Some people's comments I may generally agree or disagree with but I've up voted comments from people whose previous comments I've down voted and vice-versa. I still don't know how those weird half votes happen.

carlos's picture

You can laugh, but I don’t know how to give thumbs up or down. Is it because I use my phone on this site? Even if I could I don’t think I’d down vote, but would do the opposite. Yeah, I’m old school. Not high tech, but have followed the Packers from a very young age and always loved and played football. I enjoy the insights from everyone here and respect all views.

holmesmd's picture

Carlos,
Just tap the thumbs below the comment;) It takes a second for the vote to register and turns the thumb yellow or red.

carlos's picture

How. It turned yellow, but didn’t register. ??

Oppy's picture

Is your name Jack, Joe, John, or Mark?
Hey jack, what's with that?
That's just your average joe take on the matter.
But would you put your john hancock on it?
Mark my works, dobber, we'll get to the bottom of this.

croatpackfan's picture

I do not get. Why all of you are so influenced with up- and down- votes? I take them as someone agrees or disagrees with me. And I use up and down votes in the same manner...

Oppy's picture

Agreed, Croat.

I upvote things I strongly agree with, I down vote things I strongly disagree with. I tend to use it if I don't have anything else to add to the conversation. Otherwise, I will respond.

Oddly, I only rarely down vote any direct replies to my own posts or messages pointed at me- I just respond to those or let them go.

I tend to down-vote posts that resort to name calling or are just absolutely rude.

Anyways, I don't get why people get twisted up about it. Maybe it's because my parents did such a good job of letting me know how much they disapproved of my as a child, I'm just used to it. :)

fthisJack's picture

i think the Packers are on the edge of that first tier of guys that could make an immediate impact. i would love it if one of the following guys dropped:
1. James
2. Smith
3. Edmunds
4. Fitzpatrick
5. Ward
6. Vea

i would take any of these guys at 14. if they are gone, i would pursue a trade down and take the BPA. with the extra draft capitol i would look to jump back up into the late first round and get another player high on their board. and , if there is a player in the mid rounds they covet....trade up again.

mrtundra's picture

You could add Nelson to that list.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

He's an awesome player. It would be big break from previous Packers philosophy to draft a Guard high.

rtuck80's picture

my list would look slightly different but totally agree on your trade down perspective of the top 5 or 6 are gone. who knows if we find a trade partner. i do wonder off new England will be wanting to trade up.

stockholder's picture

I don't see Gute trading up in the top 10. 1. They need a cb. McShay is right. It sets the rest of the draft for them. 6 Teams ahead of them need a Cb. Jackson has the height and ability the packers love in a CB. The pickings are slim and small potatoes later. Gute would have to trade up from the 2nd rd. But why, if they take the cb @14. They then can go BPA with that second pick. Instead of trading a 2-and 3 much like TT in 2009. Will we like it? No! But Gute must get players. He must draft the future. He must replace Nelson,Randall,R.Rodgers, and Lang. He will take what the draft gives him. CB, WR, TE, OG.

marpag1's picture

I generally agree. But if Nelson IS on the board, I'm all over that in a heartbeat. To be honest, I think having Nelson slide while everyone else chases QBs might be our best case scenario. But I doubt he falls past 8.

I don't expect ANYONE to be Larry Allen or Bruce Matthews or John Hannah, but this kid is going to be special. He's much more than solid as a pass blocker, and he could very well be the best run blocking prospect that I have ever seen.

dobber's picture

People talk about this kid like he has HOF written all over him. I don't necessarily believe that hype, but he's as close to a sure thing as there is in this draft. If he did make it to #14, I don't know how you don't consider him.

Elite prospect + position of need = ....

marpag1's picture

Yeah, the comment about Allen, Matthews and Hannah means I don't expect Hall of Famers until they've proven it. But that would also be true about all other prospects that we might choose instead of Nelson, right?

The thing that stands out to me about Nelson is how he finishes. The number of plays where the whistle blows and the d-lineman is flat on the ground and Nelson is lying right on top of him... it's pretty amazing. The guy serves up more pancakes than Waffle House and IHOP combined. I'd be pumped if the Packers got him.

dobber's picture

Mmmmm....Waffle House.

I prefer the opposing DL-men smothered.

stockholder's picture

OG: I wouldn't. The OG has to come later in the draft this year. Lts into guards. ( It's more like Centers into guards. Or small school Tackles they like.) Also Murphy would be there Guard right now. And what about Spriggs? Still several centers this year, have played up and down the line. Mason Cole would be a great [email protected] . {OLB - Packers need Depth.} Not front line players. There are many later in the draft. (But Carter, or Jefferson. ) Problem: Jordy Nelson replacement. I want Fountain late WR. rd 4. And Gallop rd. 3. Brice is good for depth. I would trade for another 3rd or 4th round pick. So if gute trades down and picks up another 3rd. Perfect! So Far I have Gute taking ; Jackson CB, @45 Carter OLB, @75 Gallop WR,@101Cole C and @133 Fountain WR. (He'll be an All-Pro! ) But I like this better @14 Vea DT, Jones RB, Giesicki TE, Gallop WR, Turray OLB, Fountain WR, T.Henderson SS, Haynes OLB, T.Johnson CB, W. Clapp C.

dobber's picture

I need a decoder ring for this post.

OrganLeroy's picture

Murphy won't be the right guard, McCray will most likely win that competition. OG is not a need, RT is a need.

flackcatcher's picture

I'm like you stockholder. I see, little if any movement by this team. We all know now that the Packers are in a soft rebuild mode. Numbers matter, especially in the lower half of your roster were a team builds its future contributors and core players. This draft looks good and deep in positions of need for this team. But we will not know how the Packers think about this years draft until the moment arrives. Still, this will be the first real step in how BG will operate. That in itself makes the draft worth watching.

Nick Perry's picture

"We all know now that the Packers are in a soft rebuild mode"

I'm not so sure we all know. NOBODY wants the Packers to win a SB more than me this season and I'll admit to wearing the "Homer Glasses" which cloud my vision from time to time but the Packers really had a lot of work to do to get to that place and limited resources to accomplish that. Because Rodgers is back I think people are expecting maybe a little more from this team than they may be capable of this year.

I agree, the Packers ARE in a mini rebuild (Or soft rebuild if you prefer) this year. They need a whole lot from this years draft AND at least 3 instant starters who don't play like rookies and give them instant impact. That's a big ask IMO but I'm still hopeful. I mean the Saints did it so why not us??

In Free Agency there's been 2 moves made recently I think would have been great signings by the Packers because the money was so cheap. Both were at positions of need too.

1) Cameron Fleming for $2.5 million...$1 million guaranteed. He's just going to turn 26 and he did a hell of job last season for NE. Could have been the Packers RT.

2) Pernell McPhee for $1.8 million...$350,000 guaranteed..... Yes he was hurt a lot in Chicago but at those numbers, especially the guaranteed money it would have been worth it.

flackcatcher's picture

Nick, when you fire both your OC and DC and admit your system needs a top to bottom scrub, your rebuilding. How much is unknown at this point. I called it a soft rebuild based on who the Packers did not release to date. That could change depending on what X-factors effect the team. I expect we will see a return to a more classic west coast style offense, they have the personal for it, and most past offensives use a good part of the old 2010-2014 system. Defense wise. Not a clue. I expect we fans will have to wait till after the draft and training camp to see how Pettine sets his base defense. In many ways, this is a numbers game. Packers need young talent to push the starters and keep the injury bug away. Trading up or down seems not to be important at this point. But that is only my opinion. What I find interesting, is the Packers planned for this with the high number of draft choices this year, and maybe next year too. The front office understood that this team was aging, and a change needed to be made. Is the SB window closed, no not at all, but for the very short term, it got a little bit smaller.

Archie's picture

If he's hell-bent on taking a CB at 14 it better be Ward. After him, I'd trade down for guys like Hughes, Alexander, Oliver etc.

If he traded down in R1 he would have the ammo to trade up in R2, 3 and 4.

OLB Edmunds is my perfect pick for the Pack but short of that (very long shot) Marcus Davenport is the man. There are 14 top 10 picks in this draft. Vea and Davenport are probably 13 and 14. That is why I don't think this will be a trade down year. If the 5th QB goes before 14 we will have 2 guys to choose from. And maybe somebody makes a surprise pick and we will have 3 to choose from. As long as 4 QBs go before us, we are golden.

nostradanus's picture

I've got my fingers crossed that Herr Gute is the guy, I sure hope so. The one player I remember Gute being really hyped about was Carl Bradford. On draft day years ago Gute was at the podium talking about how Bradford was going to be a great outside pass rush guy and I was thinking really? Short arms, short guy more of an inside LB? We know how that turned out. It's a crap shoot and I just hope he has more hits than misses.
That would be a Gute thing.

Lare's picture

This draft will be interesting in that we don't know how much influence Gutekunst, Wolf or Highsmith had on any of Thompson's previous draft decisions, nor how much influence (if any) Thompson will have on any of Gutekunst's draft decisions.

At any rate, it looks like this draft has pretty good quality of players in the first four rounds or so, so the Packers should be able to fill some of the holes on their roster.

CheesyTex's picture

Agree. IMO Youth + Speed + Pettine = Excitement.

4thand1's picture

We will have to wait to see what crazy moves the 13 teams ahead of us will do. Will da bears do what they did last year? Maybe Gute will call the Browns, they seem to be a willing partner with the Packers now. Can you imagine getting the Browns #4 pick? What would it take CMIII ,next years #1 and maybe this years #2?

Rossonero's picture

Good point that the Browns-Packers connection may continue on draft day. I don't think it'll be in the first round, where we'd have to pay a King's ransom.

DD's picture

Must draft a starter!! Simple.

dobber's picture

You forgot the word 'impact' in there.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

It looks to me like there is going to be defensive talent at 14 in round 1. So the question to me is GB going to package his picks to move up for specifically targeted day 1 and 2 picks? Or will he keep them and use the TT "more swings" philosophy. I personally am hoping for the former, they need impact guys, not another "Spray and Pray" draft to load the bottom end of the roster.

dobber's picture

I, personally, would like to know how 6th and 7th round picks turn into impact players. If you buy into the valuation of picks (noting TKs argument above), if you add up all the Packers picks in rounds 5-7, they add up to--essentially--their pick at the top of round 4 (or a nearby pick at the bottom of round 3).

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=GB

I can't agree more: the Packers need more quality starters...but they need to raise the talent floor on the roster, too. That happens all through the draft and via FA. So we really have a choice: the Packers could pick up one higher round player (or move up a couple spots in a series of rounds), sacrificing later round picks and likely relying on more UDFAs this season to flesh out the bottom of the roster, or they can use most (maybe not all) of those 12 picks--hell, maybe ending up with MORE than 12--and take a lot of swings...hopefully filling lower-end roster spots with guys who have a little better potential.

New GM, new DC...this is set up to be a roster turnover year as TTs pet projects and players who don't suit the new DCs plans are shown the door, and I'm betting they're going to want swings.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

"I, personally, would like to know how 6th and 7th round picks turn into impact players."

Well either you get really lucky and a few of many pan out. Or you do what Ron Wolf said and package to go get the guys you really want. I'm willing to bet that the Packer success rate with UDFAs is not terribly different from 6-7 round draft picks.

OrganLeroy's picture

There won't be a trade up in the 1st round, it cost's way too much unless you're only moving up 1-3 spots. Even a trade up back into the 2nd will cost depending on how high up you want to go. The lower 1/4 of the 2nd round makes the most sense.

al bundy's picture

I would not have been shocked to see gut get out of the first completely for a first next year and another two this year. That Rogers contract has to have them scratching their heads if they can affors a 14 pick. Aint like these guys are going to be cheap and russ ball knows that. He also knows the least he must pay rogers. Not gonna be pretty when your out of money and have to pony up to thebar and buy a big round.

dobber's picture

"That Rogers contract has to have them scratching their heads if they can affors a 14 pick."

On a rookie contract? Yes. They can afford a #14 pick.

Oppy's picture

The last CBA has addressed run-away rookie contracts. That's not really an issue anymore.

Since '61's picture

My guess is that Gute himself isn't sure what he will do with his first pick at 14. The Packers are probably working on scenarios that will affect their board and who they will pick or if they will trade their pick.

To me the difficulty is trying to factor in who will trade their pick ahead of the Packers and how those trades could impact the Packers board. It's basically a free for all and a crap shoot combined.

I'll be OK if the Packers finally drafting in the top 15 can get better quality players than they have been able to draft for several years. Thanks, Since '61

dobber's picture

I think you hit the nail on the head. They probably have to have almost as many scenarios worked out as they can think of. There's already been significant movement on draft picks and it's a month prior to the draft. Once these high-end players start to slide as QBs go early (or as QBs start to slide as other players get picked), I wouldn't be surprised to see trade-ups start to happen ahead of GB...or that demand for #14 might start to grow. Maybe a player they really like slides a little and they go up to get him. It's going to have to be all about being flexible and letting the flow of the draft dictate what they do.

Spock's picture

Since '61. Exactly. I don't pay much attention to mock drafts other than possible players who might slide to where they pick (if they stay there, lol). Every year pretty much every mock draft goes out the window by the end of round one and it seems like a 'run' on certain positions causes a little craziness to happen. The one thing I liked about the trade for Kiser is the Packers will have overnight to think about having the first pick in a day's round (I think I've got that right).

dobber's picture

"Every year pretty much every mock draft goes out the window by the end of round one"

Mel Kiper's coif is usually in a tizzy by pick #20 as teams start to diverge from his script. It's funny to hear him start calling "terrible picks" because the GM in question didn't pick the player he preferred. Too often it seems that the draftniks don't really pay attention to the teams they're mocking players to...

carlos's picture

They sure have a good job. Analyze players for a year, watch games and film and throw some names around on national television. No one cares after the draft how close you were.

carlos's picture

Like that Johnathan. lol

Michael Bauer's picture

This will not be popular but I would consider trading Rodgers to the Browns.Getting 1st, 4th, 33rd,and 2019 1st round picks.With 1st pick take Chubbs who will do wonders with the defense.With the 4th pick take RB out of Penn State.That would take a lot off of the passing game and give the Packers a good running game.That would leave a lot of possibilities with the 14th pick.Could move up for a top CB or move back and take BPA.It will also give a lot of possibilities in trading back into the 1st Rd plus endless ways to move around in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.Not to mention the salary cap savings over the next several years.Remember the Packers were wanting to draft Kiser in last years draft.I am just not sold on Rodgers staying healthy with his injury.Look at Romo for example.Hit in his back didn't even go to the ground and broke his collar bone again.This would give The Packers five or six impact players.

Johnblood27's picture

If a QB slides and some team wants to come to 14 to get him, 2 things...
1) make them pay! A LOT more than that value chart. Take early picks next year too.
2) That wont happen if 15, et cetera are cheaper to trade for since everybody knows that there is NOOOO way that Gute takes whichever QB has slid.

with that value scenario it says there will be no trade backs where the Pack get way more value than the book says. If not a highway robbery situation, just stay at 14 and get a PLAYA! (market indicates Best Edge Available, more CB and WR and TE and OL depth later)

This is what will happen. No 1st round trades for GB.

That is fine with me, I would prefer a lot of later manipulation using round 3-4-5-6 pix to come down into rounds 2-3-4 to target good value proposition selections than lose 14 to get more in 2-3-4.

I believe that there are some position groups that are deep this year and that would justify sending some of next years pix out to garner good value selections this year.

All Avenues, including trading future selections if this years talent pool is deeper than next years at a particular position of need. This is why evaluation of next years draft class needs to be done this year... not just look at the pool of draftable players this year.

All about market pull and value.

4thand1's picture

The pressure all falls on the GM. The Packers haven't picked this high in ages and Gute will be under the microscope. They have their board and will probably stick to it. The whole team is in on it and Pettine knows what he wants, MM knows what he wants, how much say does Philbin have? IMO, if Ridley is there at 14 it's the BAP.

OrganLeroy's picture

Ridley will not be the BPA @ 14, man are you delusional. There is no WR in this draft worth that high of a pick and Ridley is vastly over rated. Just look at our track record with WR in the 2nd round but you think with all our dfensive needs a WR is going to be BPA @ 14? Ridiculous. I'm so sick of this 1st round WR nonsense.

4thand1's picture

Take a pill, you might blow an organ.

Johnblood27's picture

blow this organ...

John Kirk's picture

This is the allure and great thing about the draft. It's all opinion at this point. The only opinion that matters is Brian's. The way any of us see it, or a consensus views it, is irrelevant to how he does.

Calvin Ridley could be the next Marvin Harrison while Harold Landry the next Jamal Reynolds...or Harold Landry the next Lawrence Taylor while Ridley the next Robert Ferguson. No one knows for sure yet there's tons of dogmatism that it "has to be" a certain player, or defense, in general. That's an opinion alright but I would question the basis. I like the players I like and so do some of you...and some of you just parrot what you hear about who you've read is a good prospect. This is all fun. There is nothing more exciting than the NFL draft. It's like a football version of bringing a child into the world. So many hopes and dreams are found in whomever comes to Green Bay at 14.

Ustabeayooper's picture

It is ludicrous that someone is suggesting that we will trade back In the first round. There will probably be at least 4 QB( maybe 5) taken before GB is on the clock. With the other talent off the board, GB will get a quality defender in the 1st round.How many people expect us to be picking this high again in the near future? It is one thing to trade back when you are picking in the mid to high 20's, quite another when your looking at a top 10 to 15 pick. The 2nd day of the draft is all about need and value. Is the 33rd pick any better than the 45th pick? Value is in the eye of the beholder. The third day is quite different. One seriously doubts that 12 draft picks will make the team. I do like the idea that GB has the First pick on day 3. There can be some significant dealing when other teams have a night to ponder who is left on the board. It really depends on your first 3 picks. If you feel good about them, you might be able to entertain offers. If you see a great value, make the pick.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I don't think it is ludicrous. Probably unlikely but it depends on how the draft falls and one's own evaluation of players. Most likely a guy I have in Tier 2 (Ward, Minkah, James, Edmunds, Smith, Nelson, Chubb, Barkely = 8) falls to 14. But 5 QBs plus 8 = 13, and we draft 14th. Need all 5 QBs to go high AND for a team to reach for say McGlinchey or Davenport. I don't have Vea, Josh Jackson, Davenport, Landry, Hughes, McGlinchey, Ridley, Evans or Bryan that high: I have them as decidedly Tier 3 players. For me, if none of the guys I have in Tier 2 fall, I have maybe 10 guys in the next Tier (3), so I wouldn't have too much trouble with a trade back 7 to 9 spots. I'd prefer taking Landry or Davenport in the teens or early twenties, but I could live with several others. I've got Key, Hurst, LVE, Connor Williams, Oliver, Payne, Alexander in Tier 4.

The 33rd pick is better than 45. At #33, I am still in Tier 4 guys. At 45, unless I have evaluated poorly (quite possible since I am not an NFL talent evaluator and worse, didn't watch tape on too many players this year) or differently than other teams, I'd be in Tier 5 prospects.

RobinsonDavis's picture

Man, are we ever on the same page. Although, I am a little more conservative, I can see the situation fall just as you stated. At pick #14 the Packers have a chance to grab one of the TOP 10 non-QBs available. However, if that pick is not demonstrably different than say pick 16 or 21, the potential is obviously there for the Pack trading back for a 1st & 2nd, or a 1st, 3rd, and 4th. That WOULD potentially enable them to package a combination of a 2nd + ? pick(s) to move back into the 1st round, or higher in the 2nd without interrupting their other selections too much.

With 12 picks, there are so many scenarios where the Packers could choose to move-up. But as Dobber and others stated, this scenario realistically takes place mostly in the 2nd and later rounds (unless IMO, they also package a 2019 pick somewhere early on the board). One other tidbit to consider, there are rumors circulating that Roquan Smith has an undisclosed injury. IF that is true, it would throw a wrench into the draft scenarios.

In summary, I personally like where the Packers sit with their draft picks currently, and believe they should sit on #14 and see what develops draft day. I want one of the top 10 guys, but also believe an option will present, where they can move back a short distance and enhance value.

OnWisconsinGoPack's picture

But how much different is the 14th ranked player different than the 22nd? If we are able to trade back and pickup an additional 2nd rounder, that's an extra starter. Are two starters worth more than 1? Maybe, it's hard to tell and it would be hard to pass up a particular player at 14, but the fact is, the Pack are more than one player away. If Jackson is at 14, we pass him up, perhaps we grab Isiah Oliver later in the first and then grab Gesicki or Goedert at TE with the additional pick.

To me, this year lacks the Von Miller's , Jadeveon Clowney, etc. on Defense, making player values closer together. At the same time, this draft seems incredibly deep.

I wouldn't be so quick to not trade back

jeremyjjbrown's picture

Depending on the year the difference between 14-22 could be not much, or an awful lot. The location for the first tier varies a lot from draft to draft.

CheesyTex's picture

Nice post, Reynoldo. Thanks.

Community Guy's picture

hitting or missing in the draft comes down to player evaluations. some say drafting a player is a dart throw. with good scouting, drafting a guy should at least be an "enlightened dart throw". maybe lost in the conversation of moving up/moving down is picking the best player at whatever slot. most fans do not seem to agree on who the BAP is, so, it is difficult to agree on a strategy of either moving up or moving down.

initially, because of the seemingly surplus draft capital the Packers have this year, i was in the camp of recommending moving up. however, as i have studied more draft prospects, i see more potential in those later round dart throws. if Gute chooses to keep the 12 picks that they have, i will be happy to tune in on the 3rd day of the draft and simply follow and study the players that they select.

Dzehren's picture

pick #14 seems pretty cut and dry.
There are 4 DB’s worth taking- hopefully 1 falls.
If not, Davenport , Landry or Edmunds.

Also consider the board could fall so we could draft the #1 WR, #1 TE or # 1 LT. We are in a win win.

PatrickGB's picture

BPA and value are key. If a QB obsessed team wants #14 then make them pay. But stand fast otherwise. I agree with many posters that wheeling and dealing in later rounds is fine with me if the team has done its homework. The trade up for Spriggs is the outlier. ( I think that BB was the source of that bad information)

Bure9620's picture

My updated mock, yes with the draft capital BG has, I expect him to move all over the board up and down. All the players I selected fit the RW measurables. Nwosu and Sweat both fit the Justis Mosqueda FORCE player for size and athleticism for EDGE players. Bilal has awsome athleticism for a DT.
This would be an ideal draft for GB.

1) I think Derwin James may be the best player in the draft, he fell here, crazier things have happend.

2) really like the SEC corners this year Donte Jackson checks all the RW boxes, good player

3) Nwosu has crazy measurables, Force player, see settingtheedge.com

4) Ian Thomas is the most undervalued TE in the draft IMO.

5) Miller is project but huge and athletic

6) Really like Royce Freeman, will be a better pro than college player

7) Gallup checks all the boxes

8) Sweat, Measurables, settingtheedge.com
Crazy athleticism, I think BG swings twice for a pass rusher

Round 1 Pick 27 (N.O.): James, Derwin, SS/FS, Florida State (A+)
Round 2 Pick 13: Jackson, Donte, CB, LSU (A-)
Round 2 Pick 23 (CAR): Nwosu, Uchenna, OLB, Southern California (A-)
Round 3 Pick 12: Thomas, Ian, TE, Indiana (A-)
Round 3 Pick 21 (CAR): Miller, Kolton, OT, UCLA (A)
Round 3 Pick 27 (N.O.): Freeman, Royce, RB, Oregon (A)
Round 4 Pick 1: Gallup, Michael, WR, Colorado State (A)
Round 4 Pick 22 (K.C.): Sweat, Josh, OLB, Florida State (A)
Round 6 Pick 6 (T.B.): Nichols, Bilal, DT, Delaware (A+)
Round 6 Pick 7 (CHI): Demby, Jamil, OG, Maine (A+)
Round 6 Pick 33: Robertson, Korey, WR, Southern Miss (A+)
Round 7 Pick 21: Jamerson, Natrell, FS, Wisconsin (A)

OnWisconsinGoPack's picture

Nice mock. I'd be extremely happy with that.

carlos's picture

Me too.

CJ Bauckham's picture

I also like Ian Thomas alot

stockholder's picture

1. Jones is the starter. James is smoke. 2. Donte jackson has speed. Nothing more. Packers won't draft anyone under 6' for long term. 3. WR here! 4. Ian Thomas - Excellent but they'll go OL. 5. 6.7.8. projection All to low. Nice picks for 3rd round.

Bure9620's picture

Stockholder, you may be right with Donte Jackson as he is 5' 11". What are your thoughts on Carlton Davis here?

I disagree on Derwin James. I predict either Derwin James or Minkah Fitzpatrick will be available at 14 with the QBs pushing talent down the board.

stockholder's picture

Davis - No. Oliver is better. James and Fitzpatrick will be gone.

CJ Bauckham's picture

I like Davis over Oliver (though would be fine with either)

stockholder's picture

Mayock and several others do not. Oliver is faster. Better hips.

Handsback's picture

The bottom line is this draft will have 4 and maybe 5 qbs taken before the Packers selection. That means Green Bay gets a top ten non-qb player this year. You don't trade out unless there's a great offer.
2-3rd rounds can be manipulated to get a specific player but adding 12 new draft picks to the roster probably won't happen.
8 or 9 draft picks and a dozen UDFAs would be more like it.

4thand1's picture

I'm just curious as to how much say Capers had in the past drafts. If he had a major say in these defensive players, man what a schmuck!

jeremyjjbrown's picture

I am guessing not much. Given all of the positional conversions and wierd mix of man 2 man and zone coverage guys. Also Murphy's talk of siloes...

Johnblood27's picture

1 trade, GB 2(45), 4(133) and 5(172) 511pts to Carolina for 2(55) and 3(85)515 pts

ratings from CBSsports (been good for me in the past)

1) 14-Jackson-CB rated-9
2) 55 Sweat-Edge rated 49
3) 76 Carter-Edge rated 75
3) 85 Jones-OT rated 82
4) 101 Wilson-WR rated 99
5) 138 Quesenberry-C-G rated 135
5) 174 Mata'afa-Edge rated 178
6) 186 Averett-CB rated 188
6) 207 Hurst-TE rated 198
7) 232 Carew-LS rated #1 LS
7) 239 Weineke-WR/TE rated 262

Handsback's picture

I see Sweat as a very popular pick for the Packers. He did test pretty good, but look at the film....he's always late off the ball. It's like he has no instinct once that ball is snapped. I don't know if you can fix that. I also don't like Carter, too much talent not enough production.

OrganLeroy's picture

Terrible draft and BTW, what makes you think Hayden Hurst is a 6th round pick. He'll be gone no later than the 3rd.

Johnblood27's picture

Hurst is mis-rated by CBS, but I went with their entire board for that effort.

I also do not like quesenberry, I have other much better selections.

Draft mocks always change, the more you watch and read, the more you change!

Thanks for the schitty tone of your post tho!

ScaryGary's picture

thanks for the hail mary catch, good luck in philly richard. don't let the door hit u on the ass on the way out

Pauly's picture

Here are what I think are some important draft facts..
Here is a link to SB Nation article on 10 yr draft history. How many starters (629) out of (2465 total) were drafted out of which rounds.
This was a stats article written in 2014 for Chiefs GM John Dorsey about why he should trade up in draft.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tel...

IMOP, Green bay needs 3 impact players (along with role players) from this year's draft (OLB, CB, deepspeed WR) and Gute should do whatever he can to move UP to get these guys.
Package multiple picks together for trades. Spending 5 picks to move up a few times still leaves him 7.
Quantity picks in the NFL is a mediocre play. Look at last year, TT cut 3 of his picks.
Vast majority of these 3 types of impact players come out of top 64 players.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

That's an awesome article. I've bookmarked it.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

It is a great article. It is a bit too generic about positions. If you want a pass rushing OLB, they seem to be almost exclusively drafted in the first round. Exceptions I can think of are Justin Houston (3rd rounder due to serious red flags) and LaMarr Woodley at #46 way back in 2007.

LBs is very different when you need an ILB, off the ball LB, vs. pass rusher. DB is different perhaps from CB, SS, and FS. Still, an interesting article.

NitschkeFan's picture

Great article and the type of data that can be easily collected. Inspired me to look at "ALL PRO" selections and where they were drafted.

According to https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ where they keep track of both the AP and the PFF all pro selections (1st and 2nd team), I was curious what the odds might be for a good CB. Gathering data can be skewed by great players (for example Tom Brady can tilt the whole database towards late round picks for QB's). But I did look at DB's 2014/15/16/17

Defensive backs, in the past 4 years 52 awarded ALL PRO merit.

25 were 1st round draft picks
9 were 2nd round draft picks
2 were 3rd rounders
2 were 4th rounders
8 were 5th rounders
0 were from the 6th round
0 were drafted in the 7th round
6 were Un-Drafted

Not surprising really.
If we want the Packers to find a difference maker at DB, a possible ALL PRO, they should probably pick him high.

Minniman's picture

Thanks for the link pauly and some great picture setting info.

With a new OC and DC its fair to say that GB are going to play vastly differently to recent years, and having not seen any games with this coaching configuration its really hard to state how one candidate is a better fit than another at certain skilled position groups (like CB).

I read the below interesting article on differentiating safeties in this year's draft, and I think that this has parallels to how the Packers will select a CB - in short the predominant scheme (zone or press) is going to set whether they value one candidate over another, and until we actually see some games will we know the defensive scheme that Mike Pettine sets for his CB's...... but I think that the players that are selected in the first 3 rounds may be a window into the changes that the Packers have in mind for the play of certain position group.

https://www.ndtscouting.com/ledyard-a-beginners-guide-to-how-to-use-the-...

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

Thanks, Minniman, for posting that link. You single-handedly made it worth wading through 119 comments to find yours.

Minniman's picture

thanks, it was an interesting article and a deviation from the norm by not focusing on who should go where

Demon's picture

I just cant help wonder what happened to all the "in Ted we trust" crowd? Must be dificult to post with their head in the sand.

Handsback's picture

Not sure I'm "in Ted we trust" crowd, but I think he's a damn good GM. Trying picking at the end of the round all the time and see how often you get those playmakers.
It's a roll of the dice not like at 14 where you know there are very talented players.
I know not popular to say TT was a good GM, but he won a SB and drafted many great players....just not enough in the past few years.

croatpackfan's picture

I like most of you, ""TT haters" how you are trying to use "alternative facts" to spit on the man who build Chapionship team and constantly kept Packers in the realistic hunt... Packers were build to win SB in 2014, but it was not TT mistake for all the stupidities made in NFCCG.

Stay well...

Rossonero's picture

I'm not sure how many teams subscribe to the points system of draft picks. What I do know is there are some teams out there that are just simply desperate to get more picks of ANY round since they are either short on picks or they have a new GM in town with a new draft-first philosophy.

With that in mind, the Packers have a lot of ammo for this draft. With so many picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds, I'm optimistic the Packers could find suitors on draft day willing to take those later round picks and turn them into a 4th rounder, which in turn could be traded in a package deal to move into the 3rd round.

There's a lot of moving pieces, jockeying for position since the draft board will be a living, breathing beast on draft day -- ever changing, and I'm sure Gutekunst 'n co. will be preparing themselves for that accordingly.

worztik's picture

I’ve held my tongue until now and I’m not going to bore anyone here with what we should or shouldn’t do... I’m no expert! What I will remind everyone about is a factor we all tend to overlook or don’t think about... that being PEDs!!! We can’t even imagine what’s available presently or what means for beating a “random” test can be found. Two words come to mind about drafting an OL in the 1st... Tony “Manwich” Mandrich!!! Oh, the PAIN........!!!

worztik's picture

Love it when the last person to post gets down votes!!! People reading comments without the brains to respond to the “OPINIONS” posted here... SAD!!!

jeremyjjbrown's picture

This site is getting lame with the downvotes in the comments section. There used to be lots of different views shared here.and it's getting ruined.

Oppy's picture

Mandarich actually played a long time in the NFL
, longer than average, and most of it as a starter.

Like T-Buck, a bust for the Packers, but had an above average NFL career overall.

worztik's picture

Not for the 2nd player taken he didn’t... IMO...

stockholder's picture

Gute Becomes Trader Ted. @14 traded down to NE for #22 and #43 from NE. They take Vea. NT. Gute then trades #22 to Clev. for #35 and #64 . They take J. Jackson. Not happy yet. Gute trades #76 and #133 to Indy for #49. Gute then Trades #101,#172, # 174, to SF. for #59! Gute now has picks #35, #43, #45, #49, #59, #64 in the 2nd!

stockholder's picture

So the 2 dislikes don't want a trade down. You sure don't want the packers to win. We talk about depth. You want replacements. Replacements are ReBuild! So I will show you what Depth you can get. #35 DJ Moore WR #43 Carter OLB, #45 Oliver CB #49 , Jones RB, #59 Dj Chaulk WR #64 Mike Gesicki TE,

worztik's picture

The smart money says to take our pick @ 14... take our pick @ 14 in 2nd and start trading after that!!! CB in 1st... EDGE or CB or TE in 2nd... play monopoly after that!!! DONE!!! Just sayin’...

worztik's picture

Tongue escaped my grasp... do any of you know for sure what yer sayin’???

Oppy's picture

Draft thoughts:

"Rounds" are meaningless, and value charts don't hold any water unless crafted specifically for the players within a particular draft, and even then, would be based on projection only relevant to a specific team's view of the draft

The draft is far too dynamic with 32 participants each subjectively projecting the development of hundreds of individuals to attempt to predict the outcomes

While i refuse to waste my time with pre-draft analysis, it sure is a fun weekend to observe the insanity

Go Pack

worztik's picture

I can’t wait!!!

OrganLeroy's picture

It's going to be more entertaining reading all the moronic posts by the professional 'living room GM's' complaining about every pick the Packers make and how they could've done much better.

croatpackfan's picture

You nailed it. Right in the head of the nail!

Johnblood27's picture

please just nail me right in the head with a nail.

Tony Baloney's picture

Unless a team is willing to swap 1st rounders and supply us another 2nd round pick, I can't see moving down.
The craze over a so so QB draft will drop some real good prospects into that 10 - 15 area.
Take the best player available at #14, and prep for day 2. There's a wealth of CB's in this draft. I believe 13 or 14 in the top 100 prospects. That means some will drop into rd 2 and maybe 3.

Handsback's picture

I have my Rodgers jersey, my winning Super Bowl hat , my wife and will be one of the crazies at that first night of the draft.
My wife grew up in Cleveland area so big night for her as well.

I'm hoping for Davenport or Ward at 14.....I suspect the wheeling and dealing to be Friday and Saturday.

Big Moe's picture

We need Josh Jackson Imo, no matter what it takes to do the deal!!!
He has such excellent ball hawking skills!!!

DD's picture

Trust me. Gute has a plan. So does MM and his new play book change going inyo his 12th year! We still have Ted and Russ lurking and our outstanding scout team? McShay and Kiper are jokes for TV. We got a plan? Speculation if fun for us fans. I expect surprises with developmental choices only, no starters. And the choices and current roster players will be nicked or on the PUP list before the regular season with the Pack saying we'll be really good when everyone's healthy. My evaluations are based on past practice since 2010. Anyone wish to differ? Hope I'm 100% wet and wrong. You say pessimistic, I say eye test with a huge dose of reality. Let the plan unfold.

sherrmann1806's picture

i hope that if Gutenkunst doesn't find the players he wants in 14 (because they are gone by then) that he trades down.
Here is an example of what i am looking at.............lets say for instance that New England is really wanting a certain QB and decides to make a trade with GreenBay for their 14th pic...........offering their 23rd pic and perhaps one of their seconds as compensation or their 3rd and 4th..............Then, if the pack still doesn't find the value they are looking for at that position (23) that they trade down again...........such as the 27th for another 2 to 3 draft picks.

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