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Cory's Corner: Two Things About Cobb's Ankle

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Cory's Corner: Two Things About Cobb's Ankle

Many Packers fans gasped when they heard the news.

Randall Cobb mysteriously injured his ankle and was seen in a walking boot. On the surface, it’s not as bad as it seems because it’s still June and Cobb has said that the walking boot will remain temporary.

There are two things that bug me about this situation. First, why doesn’t Cobb just come clean and say how he got hurt? I mean, Jaguars punter Chris Hanson suffered first-and-second-degree burns because a fondue pot turned over and Panthers wideout Steve Smith broke his arm playing flag football.

Weird stuff happens. It’s a lot better to just come clean and own the oddity of the moment rather than let people draw assumptions on what happened. And that’s exactly what’s going to happen until training camp kicks off July 26. Then the conjecture will start up all over again.

Secondly, this freak injury highlights how much general manager Brian Gutekunst gambled on three rookies in rounds four, five and six. Maybe this injury will force Gutekunst to haphazardly sign Dez Bryant or Jeremy Maclin — which I highly doubt. The time to bring in a free agent receiver was during OTAs so that he could get acclimated to the new system and get a leg up on the ebbs and flows of the offense.

If Cobb is out for an extended amount of the preseason, that puts the timing with Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the receivers at a disadvantage.

Because Gutekunst didn’t bring back Jordy Nelson, the receiving corps was one of the lead stories for training camp. Now, that story has just blown up even more and will be put under the microscope all summer.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (102) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

The Cobb injury is a problem, but if I am speaking honestly there are a bunch of other solutions that can help if Rodgers and McCarthy deign to use some of them.

- Stop checking out of runs the whole damn game.
- Play Ty Montgomery in the slot.
- Use the screen pass (it's still a thing, trust me).
- Throw the ball to the TEs.
- Throw the ball to an inexperienced WR (Brees, Manning, Newton, Palmer, Rivers, Ryan and Carr have all been successful doing it).
- Probably some more that some smart CHZTV people can add.

I realize that this would require unprecedented humility by Rodgers and McCarthy, but they haven't been back to the Super Bowl for 8 years so it's time.

Tarynfor12's picture

It's Rodgers....' They need to gain my trust, I need to trust them.'
Football in the NFL is very much an on the job training career, because we hear it all the time, Even players that have veteran experience say they need to get playing with_____ when going to new teams. It's Rodgers.

croatpackfan's picture

Aaron has Davante, who is much better than Cobb, Jordy, Cooper, Thomas etc...

Davante can run all WR route tree...

Why do everybody here needs panic?

stockholder's picture

No- He can't.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

"Is it Rodgers or the WRs TT drafted and MM's play calling and playbook the reason why rookie WRs have limited opportunities?"

All of them probably, and also the fact that Rodgers has enjoyed good WR depth and the rookies have been buried on the depth chart.

Nick Perry's picture

Brees did it with Marcus Colston too, back in 2006. Without looking didn't Diggs have a pretty good rookie season? I just think the Packers could get more out of a smart rookie WR than they normally do. BUT you have to throw them the damn ball.

Rak47's picture

The rookies will see the ball at some point whether due to injury or development. They all have talent and the best QB in the game throwing them the ball. I for one won't be surprised to see them perform well when they do play.

The TKstinator's picture

My administration strongly prefers flows over ebbs.

Tundraboy's picture

Exactly, check the egos at the door. Nothing to lose.
Other than 2014, we haven't been close enough.

Hawg Hanner's picture

Good points but it seems a major point in the article is that it was noit a good thing Nelson was cut. No where was there a diminishing skills argument stronger than Mr Nelson. Great guy. But time marches on.

RCPackerFan's picture

Depending on the severity of the injury this could be a really bad thing or not a bad thing. Ankle injuries can linger.

The worse part about the injury is the fact that just him and Adams are proven at the WR position. Yes they gained a lot of experience at TE which helps aid the WR's. But losing one of 2 veteran WR's for any amount of time is not ideal.

Now its June, and there is a lot of time before the season starts.

If Cobb were to miss a portion of training camp it may not be a bad thing. As Jeremy said above it will force Rodgers to get better timing with the young WR's. And it gives the young WR's more reps with Rodgers.

Depending on the severity of the injury it could be a bit of a blessing in disguise. Or if it is severe they may want to look to add a veteran WR.

Time will tell. At this point, as long is it isn't a long term injury, I would rather see it happen now then in camp.

tincada's picture

"Secondly, this freak injury highlights how much general manager Brian Gutekunst gambled on three rookies in rounds four, five and six." We all know this is Terrible Ted being unveiled as the sleuth GM. BG is the GM in name only. Deal with it.

WKUPackFan's picture

Do you also know the identity of the second shooter on the grassy knoll?

dobber's picture

It's the guy with the pictures of bigfoot.

Tundraboy's picture

I thought the X files sorted all that out.

Tundraboy's picture

pause

Tundraboy's picture

JFK anyway.

Handsback's picture

Cobb is a very valuable receiver on the Packer's team, especially when Rodgers is the QB. Now if Cobb is hurt during TC, will that make a difference? I wouldn't think so, but now Green Bay is looking at another slot guy to essentially start the season if the injury is at all problematic. So will this hurt the offense, sure? Will this hurt Cobb worst then the offense? Definitely yes and provide another player valuable experience for the season and maybe even push Cobb outside looking in.

Philbin and MM make up their offense catering to the player's strength. They will find an appropriate substitute if needed.

dobber's picture

"Many Packers fans gasped when they heard the news."

Many of those did because they knew they were going to have to sort through all the drastic overreactions and tinfoil hat conspiracy theories that were bound to rise from it.

The TKstinator's picture

So you’re saying Cobb injured his ankle from wearing a tinfoil hat?
~~~

dobber's picture

Maybe he was overly dazzled...

cheesycowboy's picture

You started it yesterday Dobber.
Well done. It got Corys attention.

dobber's picture

I simultaneously offer all of CHTV a heartfelt "I'm sorry" and an enthusiastic "you're welcome!" ;)

RCPackerFan's picture

Here is what I want to know.

Does Bearmeat have a side job making tinfoil hats?

:)

dobber's picture

No, he has a side job playing trumpet and teaching college kids. ;)

Bearmeat's picture

Here I was, innocently reading down the comments, and I see a 12-hour old troll in absentia. Not cool, RC.

Your punishment will be writing the following sentence on the chalkboard after school: "I must not believe every UDFA we bring in will turn into a HOFer." ;)

jeremyjjbrown's picture

Janis was not a UDFA. Get with it man :)

dobber's picture

RC wins.

Bearmeat's picture

Yep. You got the reference. Well played. ;)

dobber's picture

I actually think J'mon Moore will end up in the slot eventually. I think he's well-suited for it. Whether he can contribute there early on if called to do so is another question.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I admit that I can't seem to maintain any objectivity regarding Jmon Moore. Big, fast, quick, he will be able to do it all. My prediction is that he is the first rookie WR with AR as the starting QB to break 500 yards.

dobber's picture

I would love it if he can do it at a 15-ypc clip.

Cory Jennerjohn's picture

Jonathan, this is very interesting. The Packers could bring in Maclin on a 1-year incentive-laden deal. Only question is, how much juice does Maclin have left?

cheesycowboy's picture

I heard Terrell Owens ran a 4.4...

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

Cobb is probably better than Maclin/Decker. But it becomes a moneyball question: is Cobb $6M or $7M better than Maclin or Decker? I think the answer is clear.

The concern is that AR would have trust with just Adams and probably Allison if we were to cut or lose Cobb for any reason. That is a real issue in my opinion. AR likes Graham, and has some history with the 2nd-year guys, but this issue should be taken into consideration, IMO.

dobber's picture

Yep. Sometimes you have to spend money to make money.

EdsLaces's picture

A. Ty needs to be in the slot sometimes anyways. B. Moore looks to be pretty legit if you ask me.

The TKstinator's picture

Do you think Moore looks pretty legit?

EdsLaces's picture

Bazingga

Oppy's picture

I am a big fan of ESB from what I've seen of his college exploits and the type of worker people report him to be. It certainly doesn't hurt that the beat writers are saying he stood out during OTAs as well. Hope it all stays the same when the pads go on.

We may have pulled two tall, fast, and solid WR's out of the middle/late rounds this year. What a boon that would be going forward.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

This is part of the reason I wanted Cobb cut.

He's fragile--too fragile for that big cap hit. We desperately need the money going forward, and Cobb clearly has no role on this team after 2018. Cutting Jordy helped, but it wasn't enough. We need every dime pushed forward.

Now, I still think Cobb can heal up and have a big year, but I also believe Montgomery could have a big year if moved to the slot. He's less skilled, but more physically imposing (honestly, I'd hate to be the slot corner tasked with covering Monty).

Sharing downs with the superior Aaron Jones is a waste of Monty's abilities, but that's what we're left with after Gute made the bad, 2019 cap-hurting decision to keep Cobb.

Why can't Packer GM's just make tough, wise decisions? Keeping Cobb limits Monty and makes our 2019 team about $10 million worse.

Cap is King, people. Obey the King.

Oppy's picture

I don't think it's wise for the Packers front office to cut Cobb for cap space (at least, at this point.) Next season may be a whole different thing. Heck, they could still cut him this year, but here's why I think it's not so easy to say keeping Cobb is a weak, poor decision by the Packers front office:

1) In terms of WR prowess, Cobb > Montgomery, so I wouldn't be so eager to cut out Cobb to make space for Monty in the slot.

2) In terms of all-around RB ability, while Aaron Jones looks great as a runner, his YPC was 5.5 (Monty's was 5.9 in healthy 2016, 3.8 in battered 2017 playing with broken ribs, total 4.9 YPC.. Side note: Randall Cobb has a career YPC average of 5.9 over 352 touches.) Jones also hasn't proven he can catch or block out of the backfield. I would argue that Montgomery still has value to take snaps in the backfield in certain situations over Aaron Jones, and even Cobb can bring the element of surprise with his ability to throw the ball, too.

We're not even in TC yet. Let's see what shakes out.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Oppy, I respect your points, but I don't see how Cobb is $10 million better than Monty in the slot. That is $10 million completely lost going forward--there's no arguing that.

I also feel 100% certain that Jones will improve dramatically in pass-blocking this year. No question about it. And Mays will improve dramatically in ball security. Even without Monty, we have one good back and two capable backups--all without burning $10 mill in cap space.

Cap decisions are tough, and many fans always want to damage future years to load up now. Keeping Cobb is such a move.

But Cap is King, Oppy. We mustn't ignore the King. Alas, Gute did just that.

Oppy's picture

Cobb is expensive this year- 12+ million- but his contract also has 3+ million dead cap hit attached to it.

Looking at numbers online (I have no idea how accurate they are) Packers have roughly 7.5 million in space right now. If they cut loose Cobb, they gain 9 million in cap, but also sacrifice rights to Cobb and take that 3 million cap hit. Or They could always renegotiate a friendly extension during the season, or they could play out his final year and part ways going into 2019 for absolutely no penalty at all.

I don't believe you get anything for not spending cap. So if we're willing to throw out 3+ million (plus the production Cobb provides) to save an extra 9M this season, who are we spending it on this year?

Saving cap space with no plan of action is not wise, it's waste- just as much so as spending it unwisely. I'm sure you have some ideas on where you want to spend the money this season.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

"I don't believe you get anything for not spending cap. "

You can carry over 10 million. For the record, I don't want them to cut Cobb unless maybe ESB, MVS or Moore is lighting it up with Rodgers and Cobb is still on the PUP when the season starts. I also don't want it done if Rodger has not been extended. Cobb is his best friend on the team.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

I have a clear plan of action, and have enunciated it. Even $9 million to use Cobb and reduce other players--like Monty--makes little sense, especially given Cobb's fragile nature.

With due respect, Oppy, you're sort of acting like burning $9 million we could use on extensions next year will somehow, magically, not affect us. The opposite is true.

Meanwhile, we simpy play other guys less to accommodate Cobb's cap hit. Monty plays much less, one young receiver will play less, too. Jones loses some snaps--it's a cascading effect. All so we can be $9 million worse next season.

I don't see the upside in limiting other players and assuring we'll be $9 million worse going forward--all for a fragile player who isn't $9 million better than the options.

WKUPackFan's picture

"I have a clear plan of action, and have enunciated it".

Translation - "I have a plan for winning, so much winning. These guys are going to do a great job, just follow my plan".

By the way, the player with "Cap Space" on his jersey has never won a game.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Your attempt at inserting politics aside, WKU, that's not my plan. Here it is:

1. Release Cobb, guaranteeing we're $9 million better going forward.

2. Move Montgomery to the slot, adding a big boost of physicality while sacrificing some skills from a fragile player whose availability is a 50-50 guess. Allow all the young players (3 rookies plus Clark, Davis, Kumerow, and Yancey) compete to fill in snaps--surely a couple will break through.

3. Feature Jones at halfback, with Williams and Mays competing to back him up. I'm fully confident each will progress in areas of weakness.

So, I'd guarantee a better team next year, while likely sacrificing little this year--and improving development of ascending players.

Finally, the player with "Cap Space" on his jersey wins every game, since teams managing their caps best win far more than teams managing their caps poorly.

Cap is King, WKU. Obey the King.

WKUPackFan's picture

You make some interesting points, but you are still sacrificing an established star on the altar of your King. In essence, you are willing to immediately give up Cobb in the hope of getting a cheaper Cobb.

I also think that all of the new guys have promise. However, cutting Cobb now leaves the cupboard very thin unless someone can immediately produce.

I prefer a running back combo featuring Monty and Jones. Monty runs harder than some think. However, Jones and Williams also has promise. I believe Monty is smart enough to swing between RB and slot. Regardless, hopefully Monty gets enough slot attempts to evaluate if he can be Cobb's replacement.

In summary, I believe Cobb is worth keeping this year, especially on a team with championship aspirations.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

I see your point, WKU, except for one thing: Cobb is no longer an established star. He is a guy whose athleticism appears to have been sapped by injuries. His burst is no longer constant. Even when "healthy," Cobb's production has become erratic, feasting on weak slot corners one week and getting dominated by better DB's the next.

That is the Randall Cobb of today, and I honestly don't think he's $9 million better than Ty Montgomery. I say save the cap cash and keep building a better team emerging fromTed's ashes.

marpag1's picture

ALP, your points about cap management are reasonable, and you may be right that Cobb is not worth the money. Time will tell, I suppose. But where does the argument come from that Cobb is fragile, and therefore he should be replaced by ... Ty Montgomery??

Over the past three years, Randall Cobb has played in 44 of 48 regular season games, while Montgomery has played in 29 of 48. And you're saying that COBB is the fragile one???

In his seven year career, Cobb has played in 96 out of 112 regular season games, missing only 16... and ten of those 16 were the result of a broken leg. In fact, the broken leg year was the only year when Cobb missed more than 3 games. His number of games per season are 15, 15, 6, 16, 16, 13 and 15. In Montgomery's three seasons, he has played in 6, 15 and 8.

So if Cobb is fragile and injury prone, what the heck is Montgomery?

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Oh, I agree Montgomery is also a health risk, but he's a much, much cheaper one. I'm also confident we can develop young talent to back him up. Finally, if Monty's a health risk at receiver, then he faces much greater risk playing RB.

marpag1's picture

"If Monty's a health risk at receiver, then he faces much greater risk playing RB."

That's an interesting assertion. I wish someone would have informed Montgomery about this during his first year, when he was still a receiver. Montgomery missed more games in one year as a receiver (10) than he did in two years as a running back (9).

Like I said, your cap management argument is a legit concern, and we both agree that Monty has missed huge chunks of playing time to injury. But what I can't really agree with is the idea that Cobb is injury prone. That angle has been massively overblown. I think people wildly exaggerate his injury history, not because he's truly injury prone, but because they want to find arguments to justify cutting his giant salary.

But he ain't injury prone. He just isn't. He broke his leg once when a safety hit him low. Other than that....

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

My concern isn't so much that Cobb is injury-prone (though starting camp in a boot ain't great), but rather his drop in burst since earlier injury.

Remember when Cobb had a chance to step up in Jordy's absence? Complete disaster. He just couldn't get loose with any consistency.

And let's face it, that's been the story of his career since early injury--dramatically underperforming his contract. Last year was more of the same: Tear up a poor slot CB one week, get dominated by a better CB the next.

Cobb's "fragiliy" isn't just about his latest injury--it's the fact he has never fully recovered from earlier injury.

Oppy's picture

The problem is, Randall Cobb has a proven track record that shows he outperforms the players you want to take his playing time. That's the part that doesn't make sense to me.

You want Monty to take Cobb's snaps in the slot. Cobb has a proven track record of being more productive and insanely efficient in the slot.

You justify this move by wanting Aaron Jones to take the snaps at RB that were Monty's. But when healthy, both Cobb and Monty have produced ever-so-slightly better than Jones did, and Jones has not proven to be able to catch or block reliably out of the back field- something Monty has proven capable of.

So you're advocating for potentially weakening two separate positions on the offense to get rid of Randall Cobb a year early. I get it, Cap cap cap. However, in a year where Rodgers (Super-need-to-trust-my-targets-guy) already lost his favorite target, I don't know that a dollars and cents move makes any sense when it's being promoted to facilitate a shuffling of two players that haven't shown increased production over the guy you want out.

I'm certainly not a cap guy, that's definitely TGR's territory (and probably his alone around these parts), but this doesn't seem like such a simple decision to me. I would assume the Packers have a strong sense of where Rodgers' contract will be going and have made some provisions for how they're dealing with the cap over the next two to five seasons, in regards to player acquisition, resignings, etc. at this pivotal juncture.

Lare's picture

Cobb is the 18th highest paid WR in the NFL, yet he's the 56th ranked WR according to production.

Barring major injuries to Adams & Montgomery, I think the Packers would be fine without him.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Actually, Oppy, Cobb's recent track record is one of drastically underperforming his contract.

Even when healthy, Cobb has displayed declining burst--likely due to injuries. One game he blows up, and the next he disappears; dominated by a better slot corner. You're acting like this is Julio Jones we're talking about, but instead, it's just a guy on a really bad contract.

Point being, there's a reason no team would even think of trading for Cobb. Also, on a team where 2nd year leaps are commonplace and development is key, I think it's safe to expect several WR's to improve markedly. I think it's even safer to expect that of three 2nd year RB's.

Jones is clearly more explosive than Montgomery, and with better vision. It isn't close, Oppy. And if you think Jones won't improve greatly in blocking (his biggest weakness) and pass-catching (not a big weakness), then you simply don't believe in coaching and player development. Also, Williams is a solid, albeit pedestrian, backup, and Mays has high athleticism to go with this being his 2nd year of learning. While we have no franchise back, we're just fine there without Monty.

Would this move weaken two positions? Barely. Montgomery adds more explosion and physicality over Cobb in the slot, balancing out the loss of Cobb's veteran savvy. Plus, losing Montgomery from this young backfield feels like little to no loss at all.

Oh, and did I mention we'd add $9 million to our 2019 cap, while opening another roster spot for development of young talent?

Yes, I think releasing Cobb would have been a very good decision, and I also believe Gute knows it. He's a young GM with laughably little power, and wants to make everyone happy--including the QB. Thankfully, Gute did a spectacular job with the Draft, especially in picking the pockets of New Orleans and Seattle. But in keeping too many high-priced vets, he ignored the severity of the mess Ted left him. That's unfortunate.

Oppy's picture

I will never be able to make you understand that the money-to-production ( "over performing" or "Under performing" a contract) means absolutely nothing to team success unless you have a plan to replace the player with a more productive one, or the contract is prohibiting the addition or retention of better talent. Once the money is spent, it's about production. So who is it in 2018 you are bringing in to replace Cobb, or who is it who isn't going to get signed in 2018 because of Cobb's cap number this year? That's what it breaks down to.

Oppy's picture

Thank you Jonathan Spader for being the first person to respond with a concise and well thought out answer to my question.

Mo and Monty are good candidates as they would be UFA's if not resigned this calendar year. I don't know if the Packers need 16M in cap space in 2018 to do it, or if the 7+ M they have now is enough, but again, that's really TGR's domain. Rodgers' contract may be held off until next season when substantial cap space frees up (or at least, appears to.)

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

I don't "hate" Allison, JS. Never have.

I just feel he's a limited guy with a low ceiling, and with only this year remaining on his contract. I prefer going with newer, higher upside guys over him.

That's not "hate." It's roster develoment.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Why should we spend money on Maclin and cut another young talent when we have possibly our deepest WR group ever?

That makes no sense.

And Oppy, I've answered your question multiple times, but you don't like the answer because your entire focus is on 2018. Can't help you there.

Oppy's picture

Andrew, none, and I mean none, of your responses up to this point had any specifics about who you were spending the cap savings gained from cutting Cobb on.

You spoke at length about other players who are all currently under contract being shifted around and getting playing time. None of that has anything to do with salary cap savings.

Jonathan directly answered my question, and answered it specifically, naming two players whose futures may be impacted by the availability of cap space in 2018.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

You're missing my point, Oppy. I wouldn't spend one single dime of the cap savings this year. Not one dime. You keep wanting answers as to how I'd spend it now, and I keep saying it would be foolish to spend it now. I don't know how much clearer I can possibly be. You only like other people's comments because they spend money now--which I think is foolish.

I'd move it all to next year, where we have several upcoming extensions--along with the big impact of Aaron's deal. I want more roster spots for developing young talent this year--so don't keep Cobb or acquire Maclin--and a $9 million better team next year.

Help me out here, Oppy. How could I possibly provide a clearer answer?

Lare's picture

Ty Montgomery can easily replace Randall Cobb's production. But he has to stay healthy to do do.

dobber's picture

He might be able to replace Cobb's production, but he won't do it in Cobb's role. He's only played about 12 games as a true WR, otherwise he's been mostly a RB or RB/WR hybrid. We really don't know what he'll be as a true slot. By all accounts, he's continued to bulk up to take the beating at RB, and if you watched him last year when he was a little bigger than his first year at RB, he's not as 'nifty' or elusive. I'm not sure he'll ever be a true WR again.

I tend to agree that OK slot receivers are a dime a dozen in the NFL. They can find or transition a player into that role and get acceptable production. Montgomery's best value, based on a small sample size from last year with ARod, is as a receiver out of the backfield and a ball carrier with limited touches. I think he could easily catch 50+ balls out of the backfield. It will get him the ball in space and limit the abuse he takes.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

It's not a matter of convincing me of money-to-production, Oppy. We see that exactly the same. The biggest difference is that I focus on multiple years for a team recovering from Ted's disastet, while you are much more focused on 2018 alone.

You want an instant replacement. Why? We have an incredibly deep group of young receivers developing, and It's highly likely a few will take big jumps this year.

Can I guarantee someone will be as good as the declining Randall Cobb this year? No, and I have no interest in doing so. I do, however, feel confident that Montgomery provides plenty of instant help to offset most or all of the loss, while releasing Cobb would also allow us the roster spot to develop yet another talent.

Unfortunately, Gute has made the wrong decision from nearly every angle. He blew $9 million we could have used going forward, he limited Montgomery's production needlessly, and he guaranteed we'd be releasing yet another WR from the deepest group we've ever had--just so another salivating team can snatch up our mistake like New Orleans did last year.

And all for what? An expensive health risk with declining burst and inconsistent production?

No Oppy, you won't convince me--or any other rational person--that we should do that. Gute blew it, plain and simple.

Oppy's picture

The reason I'm focused on 2018 is because that's the last year of Cobb's contract. In other words, any "future" impact from the saving of cap space resultant from Cobb being cut would have to stem from money spent this year. That's why I've asked a few different times where you're planning on spending the money in 2018 from Cobb's contract.

Can't really explain it any more clearly than that.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

We don't have to spend the money this year, Oppy. We can move it all to next year, helping cover big upcoming extensions.

You do understand we can move it forward, right? I'm not trying to be condescending here--just trying to figure out the disconnect.

The cap savings of releasing Cobb can all be moved to next year, making next year's team $9 million better than it would have been. This also opens another roster spot this year for develoing a young talent with more years on a cheap rookie deal.

Hence, cutting Cobb produces a win-win.

Oppy's picture

There's already roughly 7.5 Million sitting there in cap space.
So, now you're talking about cutting Cobb to gain 2.5 million next year.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I don't understand. Where are you getting $2.5M? Yes, there is roughly $7.5M in cap space now, and that probably whittles down to $4M to $5M available to roll over into 2019 if things go okay. Cutting Cobb would allow a rollover of something closer to $13M/$14M.

I don't think much of Monty as a straight slot WR. Cobb is much better than Monty as a pure slot WR, so I don't agree with ALP there. I suspect that Graham is going to be a slot WR, and I suspect he is better than Cobb. I just haven't worked out in my mind where Graham is going to play, and I think Cobb is a slot-only player, and just something above average if he can stay reasonably healthy. And I believe that Adams and Cobb as the only trusted receivers is a real thing to consider.

IOW, I like the idea of saving $9M in cap, but I think cutting Cobb results in a substantial dropoff in the quality of our traditional receiving options. IDK, though, our RBs should be able to help in the passing game, and I like motioning Monty from RB to the slot if there is a mismatch so he is up against an LB or certain safeties. We can wait until September to see if one or more of the rookies or 2nd-year players look good enough to be the boundary WR opposite Adams, and Graham can be the slot WR.

For me, it is wait-and-see on this. Some WR is going to have to really break out though before I'd feel comfortable enough to cut Cobb.

Oppy's picture

Someone had posted previously in this thread that you could only roll over $10 Million unspent cap from one year to the next. I was assuming that was good information.

If the above information was correct, since we have 7.5m in cap space at the moment, the notion of cutting Cobb to be able to roll savings into next season means, effectively, you're cutting cobb to save 2.5m in cap space (7.5m+2.5m = 10M). The point I was making (apparently based on bad information) was that since none of ALP's moves he was suggestion actually required the use of salary cap money, and he then stated cutting Cobb was about bolstering next year's cap, was that cutting Cobb only netted 2.5m (because there was already 7.5 unspent sitting there.)

Probably just confused you more, but I tried.

WKUPackFan's picture

Honestly ALP, while I'm posting a reasonable, conciliatory response to your plan above, you are reverting to conspiracy theories about Gute's supposed lack of power. Who is the villain of flavor this week conducting the power play? Murphy, MM, maybe even TT?

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

There's no conspiracy theory here, WKU. Gute just has less power by contract than any GM in the league. He's also new to the position, with a coach and finance guy on his power level, and a very demanding star QB who wants his buddies kept at all costs while he still scores a massive extension.

None of that is conspiracy at all, WKU. It's fact. It is the factual position occupied by our new GM.

WKUPackFan's picture

Everything you just stated is a conspiracy theory. Have you reviewed Gute's contract and compared it with other team's GM contracts? Of course you haven't.

Who is this "finance guy" on Gute's level? Murphy? He's actually above Gute. MM on his power level? You're reading way too much into Murphy's weekly meeting comment, just as you put too much stock into your pure speculation about what AR may or may not want.

That's the problem with your takes, buying into the rumor of the day. You bit hook, line, and sinker on the AR contract demands story (proven to be false the next day). You were all in on your "Moss is a continuing distraction" theory. Heard anything about that lately? You were also all in about Oren Burks speaking at a conference being a distraction. Heard anything about that lately?

The Gute lack of power theory also rests on a fundamental misunderstanding about the previous structure. Wolf, and TT subsequently, may have been promised a hands off approach. It appears, at least publicly, that this approach was followed. However, the club's President and Board always had the power to override any decisions made by Wolf and TT. Neither ever had total power or were given lifetime contracts.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Russ Ball is on Gute's level. He, Gute, and McCarthy all report directly to Murphy, creating a 3-headed leadership team unlike any other in the league--unless, of course, you want to point one out.

Our GM can't hire and fire coaches, can't hire or fire the contract negotiator, and can't even approve or disapprove the contracts of the very players he acquires. Everyone reports to Murphy.

WKU, stop looking for conspiracies where there are none. We have an unusually low-authority GM--there have been countless stories on it.

Oppy's picture

The only thing that has been stated is that Murphy will be the one to fire the HC.

MM, Ball, and Gute all Reporting to Murphy does not implicitly state that the GM doesn't have the ability to fire Russ ball or approve/nix the contracts of the players. These are assumptions you are imposing.

All we can be sure it means is that Murphy is making sure to be in the loop, and in turn, EVERYONE is in the loop as well.

dobber's picture

Ball, by all accounts, runs many of the day-to-day football operations. He did this under TT, also, who ceded many of these responsibilities to Ball over recent years. Ball does not have the authority to independently begin or end player contract negotiations. The roster is the domain of BG.

WKUPackFan's picture

"there have been countless stories about it".

Sounds like the same type of verification He Who Shall Not Be Named (same last name as a starship captain) used to peddle.

Again, why are you so vehemently opposed to communication between MM, Gute, and Ball, with Murphy facilitating said communication and making sure everyone is moving in the same direction? Why are you so invested in twisting something vibrant organizations practice into some kind of nefarious, power grabbing plot by someone?

dobber's picture

"Montgomery adds more explosion and physicality over Cobb in the slot, "

Montgomery isn't the same player who looked so good catching the ball for 6 games in his rookie season. He's completely changed his body to play RB, and -- IMO -- he looked less explosive last season after starting that physical transition. To expect he could, right now, just drop in at slot WR and be more explosive than Cobb (physical, I'll grant you) is something we can't reasonably project.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Dobber, I'll gladly concede Montgomery's added muscle likely decreases his burst a little. But he's far more physical than Cobb, while Cobb has also demonstrated lowered burst and costs us an extra $9 million to keep.

dobber's picture

We agree on Montgomery, but at this stage Cobb just isn't going anywhere. BG apparently decided that he was only going to keep one of his older high-priced WR, and the one he wanted was Cobb...contract and all. We can argue the benefits of it, but I suspect he and his cap hit are going nowhere until his contract times out.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Oh, I agree Cobb isn't leaving. I just believe that is a very bad decision being made by a GM with laughably little authority.

It's too bad. With our incredible increase in WR talent and depth, we could have used Montgomery to bridge the gap while building a great future. But Gute has no power.

dobber's picture

Whether or not he has laughably little authority, he was the one--by all accounts--to make that decision. While the current power structure might gall some of us or lead us to believe that it's going to bring the organization on harder times, he did make that decision and he had the authority to make that decision. Whether it turns out to be a good one or a bad one we won't really know until January or February. He may end up looking like a genius.

Tundraboy's picture

"He's less skilled, but more physically imposing (honestly, I'd hate to be the slot corner tasked with covering Monty)."

That's for sure. I have been dying to see that as well, along with more screens to the RBs. That combined with RRodgers now being gone and Philbin back, has me all the more excited about this year. Cant wait, can't wait.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Letting RRodgers walk was the easiest decision imaginable. I couldn't agree more.

White _tornado's picture

Monty is not being.limited by anything other than his own inability to stay healthy

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

Lots of great points stated on both sides. I don't know what Gute should do. It looks like it saves $9.1M to cut Cobb right now. I am assuming that he earned his workout bonus of $400K, though that isn't clear. If not, then $9.5M.

I don't think Cobb should ever line up in the backfield again. True, for his career he has a 6.0 yd/carry average, but it was 3.4, 3.8, 3.3, and 1.9 since 2014. His good numbers were in 2012 and 2013 (pre-injury). In those years he gained 210 of his 352 career rushing yards (60% of them). His rushing average for those two seasons was 15 yds per rush. Since then, it has been 3.19. Those with better memories can suggest that putting him in the backfield led to mismatches when he ran a pass route instead, or that Philbin will be better able to use Cobb in this capacity.

Some folks suggest that his receiving yards are down due to injuries but when healthy he can still have a big year (900+ yards?), and others deny he is fragile noting that he has only missed 4 games in the last 3 seasons. I think both are true, but what do I know? I give him credit for playing through injuries, but he wasn't the same player when hurt, and he needs the other WRs to open the middle. Cobb isn't beating most slot corners with his route running or blowing away safeties with his speed. He can't do that anymore. He is still quick and elusive with the ball, though, and has AR's trust. I think a reasonable comp for Cobb is Amendola, who got $6M, but none guaranteed in 2019. Cobb probably is better, so perhaps Cobb's FMV is $6.5M to $7M.

Can Cobb be replaced by internal candidates? Not by a proven player. Maclin and Decker would be external candidates, but they would come at a price. If we save $9.1M on Cobb but buy insurance in the form of Decker (who played for $3.8M in 2017 due to injuries and had 563 receiving yards), then our net cap savings is around $5M. Maclin looks washed up to me but he managed 440 yds in 12 games. He's missed 4 games in 2017 and 4 more in 2016.

Oppy raised the question of where we might spend saved cap dollars. I have little doubt that Boston or Reid would be wonderful insurance at safety, and should be able to start if necessary. Maclin and Decker have been discussed, and aren't overwhelming. Dumervil is out there with his 6.5 sacks, but SF dumped him despite a $750K dead money hit. Connor Barwin and Ahmad Brooks at OLB. Dontrelle Inman does little for me. I don't think we need Breeland. Brice looked bad before he got hurt, so I'd think about the safeties, but I think they are waiting for a camp injury to occur so they can get paid closer to starter's money. I am not dying to spend cap money saved by cutting Cobb on any current FAs. Someone might get cut later, but we can decide then. Point to Oppy in my book.

Our cap next year looks a little tight to me. It is $25M with a $177.2M salary cap. Maybe the cap will increase to $190M, so call it $37M (plus maybe $5M in rollover - we have about $8.9M not under the rule of 51). We need to replace (internally or externally) or re-sign CM3, Cobb, Wilkerson, HHCD, Monty, Ryan, Marcedes, Kendricks, and pay AR. Perhaps CM3 is worth $7.5M? Cobb $6.5M? HHCD $5M? Unknown on Wilkerson, and $7M for the rest (if we want them or get replacements). AR probably will cost more than the $21M currently on the books. There are very few players in 2019 who would provide cap savings if cut. Bulaga ($6.5M) and Crosby ($3.2M), Daniels ($8.5M), Bakh, Twill ($4.75M) would be the candidates. So probably no big FA acquisitions next year. Yeah, $9M would be useful. We are still looking 5 years down the road with AR, so blowing up the cap doesn't look wise (yet). Some of the players in contract years noted above might have internal candidates step up, making them expendable. Love Jmon, and maybe Biegel/Gilbert for CM3, or M. Adams for Wilkerson if he isn't the dominant guy we're hoping for.

Sure, it is highly likely to me that Decker or perhaps Monty would provide more productivity per cap dollar than Cobb would in 2018. I don't think that ends the discussion.

4thand10's picture

Ty getting more slot work is a good thing if it happens. I believe he is just as capable at slot WR as at RB. Probably less rib injuries at slot WR. ( guessing) We all know talent on the field is important, but I would say with the Packers, health is even more important. I will say since a legitimate #2 has not emerged or showed up via free agency having at least 2 healthy slot WR and a healthy Jimmy Graham is important.

Tundraboy's picture

With the Packers, health is everything.

bustagb's picture

This article is a huge reach.

4thand10's picture

@JS....Im sure they do get rib injuries also, but not like the pounding an RB gets fighting through the trenches. They take WAY more hits. My point was..that both Cobb and Ty need to be healthy. Because clearly we need more than just Adams at WR. I don't think Allison is the answer based on what I've seen from him. Games where DC's figure out how to shut Graham down...Im not so sure I have confidence in a rookie coming close to Nelson like production. So like I said, having Ty to supplement that slot role wouldn't be a bad thing. He was catching great and looking like a WR before and injury and subsequently switched to RB the following year.

4thand10's picture

Thumbs up.

White _tornado's picture

In 2015 when Jordy went down in the preseason opener there was still time to sign a player or adjust the playbook for the season. Instead the powers that be, chose to do neither. If there ever was a good time for a Cobb injury it is now.

Take the next few days to REALLY evaluate the roster, decide if any of the young players can be a 50 plus catch this season guy. If not, sign a veteran!

Adjust the playbook to feature the tight ends and backs more. Plan this season as though Cobb is not going to be available. Do it now rather than like in 2015 and watch it blow up in your face.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

GB signed James Jones. I don't remember what other FAs were available. I have no way of knowing whether TT could have swung a trade for a WR on another team.

4thand1's picture

Cobb is not fragile. He broke his leg on a cheap low hit a few seasons ago, and has had a few nagging injuries that most receivers have. Hundley didn't know he existed last year, Jordy also. Cobb and AR are on the same page, they've made some huge plays together. Teams have to respect Graham and Adams so Cobb will see a lot targets. Monty is to good to not be playing receiver also. If Cobb were released as some people want, AR would really make some noise IMO. Just hope it isn't the dreaded high ankle sprain.

Lare's picture

Cobb has only had one year in his entire career where he's had over !,000 yards receiving, Most other years he's been around half that. He's also only played 16 games in 2 of his 7 NFL seasons.

For $2 million a year he's a decent value at WR. For $12 million a year he's a huge waste of salary cap space.

stockholder's picture

Whats the plan if Adams gets hurt? 1. Cobb, 2. Monty to the slot. 3. Allison and his 4.67 speed. 4. Graham outside. 5. Moore @ 4.4. 6. st. Brown @4.4. 7. Davis @ 4.5 ////// Brett Favre had worse. He didn't need FA's. He made Freeman,& Driver better. At some point; Arron Rodgers has to make the LATER draft picks better. The Rookies have to make an impact. Why keep wasting the speed of youth? Hog Wash to try and sign a veteran. All are WRs should Try Harder. Don't expect Rainbows from Adams. And don't get down on Cobb. We need him.

KamThomps's picture

Adams, Allison and Cobb, in that order for WR. All will have stellar years if Rodger's stays healthy.

DD's picture

You all have been mislead. The Packers and Cobb aren't speaking truths. Cobb should have been asked to take a pay cut on his production and dependability. 12 million? Come on. Jordy could have played the slot and would have taken a pay cut, but no. Mistake by Gute!! Ty to the slot? Yes. If he stays healthy. Another recurring theme, injuries before they even play!! Expect to see Matthews, Beluga, Perry, and Beigel to join the mash unit before regular season play. Mark it dreamers.

DrMixerGED's picture

You may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...

mamasboy's picture

Montgomery is going to be our ace in the hole. But he's only one guy. If both Adams and Cobb get hurt, the running game will become very important!

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