Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - Yes I'm Mocking You
The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.
By JerseyAl
Once the Rodgers trade was announced and I knew the Packers were going to have three top 50 picks, it solidified my feeling that those picks would be at three positions: OT, TE and EDGE. I would have loved for one of them to be safety, but this class is lacking stars at that position. So it then became a case of which position gets drafted where. I personally would be ecstatic if Paris Johnson Jr was available at 13 at that's who they chose. I believe he is a future (in 3 years?) All-Pro that would give Jordan Love what Aaron Rodgers has had - an elite blind-side protector. He was the choice in my mock draft for the CHTV Draft Guide. Sadly, however, I think he'll be the first tackle taken before the Packers are up. While EDGE is a need, is it enough of a need to choose one at 13 overall and are any of the EDGEs that could be available so good that you couldn't pass them up? Not really - and there will be some very good edge rushers available in Round 2. So that brought me to the very unlikely dilemma of considering - would the Packers really take a TE, a position they have not previously put a high value on, in the first round? Well, did the Packers take an off-ball linebacker, a position they absolutely have not placed a high value on, in the first round last year? Yes, they did. That and the fact that they had all three of the top-ranked tight ends in for pre-draft visits is how I talked myself into actually believing they would consider drafting an impact TE at 13. It's probably a crazy idea, but I'll roll with it.
Round 1 #13) TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame, 6'4" 249lbs. - This is a generationally great tight end draft class and Mayer is the cream of the crop. He's a true three-down Y tight end who excelled at Tight End U (Notre Dame), and holds their all-time TE records for receptions, yards and touchdowns - and he's only 21 years old! Mayer has been tutored by Kyle Rudolph and George Kittle and is ready to be an impact player right NOW. Some folks will argue that Dalton Kincaid or Darnell Washington sport higher potential upsides, but potential is not quantifiable. Everything Mayer is ready to do is quantifiable. Mayer will make Jordan Love's development that much easier. Did I convince you? Not sure if I've totally convinced myself, but I'm going with it (but I'm still rooting for Paris Johnson JR and then a TE and EDGE in Round 2 - but I digress.)
Round 2 #42) EDGE Will McDonald, Iowa State, 6'4" 240lbs. - While the Packers have tended to like bigger EDGE players, I'm once again flipping the Packers' script for them by picking a "lighter" (240 lbs) explosive athlete that averaged nine sacks per season over his four-year college career. He lined up in various positions for the Cyclones, but his future is surely on the EDGE where his explosiveness and length (34 7/8" arms) serve him best.
Round 2 #45) OT Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse, 6'3" 318lbs - A lot of people already have him pegged for a move inside to guard, but I say, not so fast. His techniques are further developed than some of the higher-ranked tackles and he's a fluid mover, whether in a straight line or laterally. He needs to get stronger and work on being more consistent, but the tools are all there. And if he doesn't work out as a tackle, he certainly can kick inside and become a heck of a good guard in a zone-blocking scheme.
Round 3 #78) WR Rashee Rice, SMU, 6'1" 201lbs. - I was looking for someone to break the Round 3 curse, and I think Rice could be the man for the job. Rice's game is all about the catch point, with a 41" vertical, strong hands and top-shelf tracking ability. He's physical and a willing blocker, making him a potential Lazard replacement. His route running and some drop issues in 2022 are what drops him to Round 3, but those are things that can be worked on and developed.
Round 4 #116) S Jartavius Martin, Illinois, 5'11" 194lbs - It's slim pickings in the safety department this year and this selection was between Jammie Robinson and Martin. With a ton of special team experience and a much better RAS score (9.29 vs. 6.09) Martin is the choice here. Not coincidentally, both were brought in by the Packers for pre-draft visits.
Round 5 #149) TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati, 6'6" 248lbs - I expect the Packers to double-up on tight ends in this draft (and bring in some UDFAs as well). Whyle has the size and physical traits you look for in an in-line tight end, although he was frequently used off the ball. He has reliable hands and uses his big body to box out defenders. He's not much of a YAC guy, but he will block well enough and be a reliable target.
Round 6 #207) QB Stetson Bennett, Georgia, 5'11" 192lbs. - My goal here is to bring in a potential backup for Jordan Love with extensive big-game experience that won't wilt under pressure if forced into an NFL game unexpectedly. Despite size and arm strength limitations, Bennett has made a career out of exceeding expectations. Bennett is actually older than Love - I really like this scenario for the Packers.
Round 7 #232) S Quindell Johnson, Memphis, 6'1" 195lbs. - If you are looking for an ultra-productive tackling machine, you can stop here. Johnson is not the strongest or fastest prospect, but he's smart, gets to ball carriers, and takes them down. Meet your next Packers special teams ace.
Round 7 #235) K Chad Ryland, Maryland, 5'11" 190lbs. - I'm assuming that some team has already taken Jake Moody, the consensus top kicker by this time and that's ok. I actually like Ryland better and think he has a higher upside. He set a Big Ten record in 2022, hitting on 24 consecutive field goals and registered 137 touchbacks on kickoffs over his college career.
Round 7 #242) DL Dante Stills, West Virginia, 6'3", 289lbs. - Stills has a long and muscular body type best at shooting gaps. Plays with a good motor but is not stout enough to take on double teams. Reminds one a bit of Dean Lowry.
Round 7 #256) WR Jalen Wayne, S. Alabama, 6'2" 210lbs - A physical receiver who loves to block, Wayne has extensive special teams experience as a returner and on coverage units and is a second cousin to Reggie Wayne. For a late seventh-round pick, those are probably sufficient credentials.
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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther. Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
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Comments (275)
nygary
April 26, 2023 at 06:11 am
Al. I am not someone who studies player's coming out of college. But i am sure of one thing for the Packers. This year if we don't add to the DL we will never have a good defense. I don't think a 7th round pick does the trick and with very limited cap space theirs not much room for a free agent. This draft has to bring back help at the Dl position.
PeteK
April 26, 2023 at 07:30 am
Absolutely, Gervon Dexter or Keanu Benton are my picks.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 01:38 pm
great picks- But Not a sure thing.
You also have to look at the progress of Wyatt.
Turophile
April 26, 2023 at 02:43 pm
Oh yeah. Going for a second Legion of Boom. Sounds so much better than the legion of plop.
PackfanNY
April 26, 2023 at 08:34 am
I thought the exact same thing. The DL needs more than a 7th round pick. I know we have limited cap space but we might need a higher pick PLUS an outside veteran FA for the rotation.Reed and Lowery were never great but they did play and someone needs to take those reps.
JerseyAl
April 26, 2023 at 08:37 am
1) You can't hit on every position in every draft.
2) There are always affordable FA DLs available that they can bring in for depth - I expect that to happen.
3) They thought enough of Jonathan Ford to roster him for the year even though he didn't play and there's also Chris Slayton, who looked really good in preseason action and was on the Practice Squad.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:13 am
Those are great points, Al. I like Ford a ton, and believe he and Slaton will hold down the nose. Slayton is another who could remain a decent depth piece.
My thinking at DT hinges on Kancey in rotation with Wyatt. Would prefer they switch Clark back to NT to have more production from him at his most effective position, in a rotation with Slaton & Ford to save him wear & tear.
Btw, you’re not kidding on adding big fellas via FA. I think after Bak gets traded, which I think may happen tomorrow night or Friday, GB will have cap room to add a significant piece or two.
Maybe DT, EDGE, or OT.
How about those Packers with some cap space???!!!
Totally agree with your point 1. But, dayummm if we aren’t going to have the picks to try and fill many roster holes when it’s all said and done. That’s my best guess.
Turophile
April 26, 2023 at 02:48 pm
While I don't advocate spending as much draft capital on the front seven D as the 49ers, one good young stud alongside Kenny Clark and Wyatt could make a very nice line.
Add Rashan Gary (when fit again), Preston Smith (probably only for one more year) and Enigbare with a first round Edge guy at pick 13 and this could be a D that finally scares other teams.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 09:00 am
Spot on Nygary!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 01:59 pm
Mazi Smith at #42. The DT version of Rashan Gary. Absolutely bonecrusher with rare agility for a 323 pound bohemeth.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 03:18 pm
What scares the F outta me with Mazi is his lack of production.
He should have a ton of pressures, hits, sacks and TFL. FFs would be a bonus.
Where are they?
SicSemperTyrannis
April 27, 2023 at 10:29 am
Edge helps, and should be a priority. As should the best kicker. We have two backup QBs, I don't see that we need another. There should be room for DL in addition to edge.
NickPerry
April 26, 2023 at 06:12 am
My question is this...Could the Packers trade back to say 21 with the chargers, pick up the Chargers 2nd round pick this year, and STILL get Meyer at 21?
Gute mentioned in his press conference about the additional picks from the trade allows him to "Move Around" a little more, or something to that effect. My point is could they trade back, get the 2nd, and then move back up with a 3rd. God knows those 3rd rounders are a scary thought!
IF the Packers had a drafts like Al's I wouldn't be upset. I think Bergeron is going to a Guard and a BEAST of a Guard at that. I also like Rice, IF the Packers couldn't get Hyatt. Drafting Meyers gives them the middle of the field guy. Could you IMAGINE this offense with Meyer, Watson, Doubs, Hyatt, and then Jones and/or Dillon? YES PLEASE!
Can't wait for tomorrow to get here!
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 08:04 am
Nick, I am in agreement for a trade down and the Chargers have been who I hope Gutey deals with.
I believe Mayer would be there at 21, but certainly one of other 3 of the top 4 TEs would be.
Then the three seconds can be used on Edge, OL, and WR...and get a better prospect than Rice who I think is still a bit of a reach in the 3rd round. NFL.com draft has him as the 20th WR prospect...draft buzz at #10.
Hyatt would be a good get...his production last year was eye popping. I don't think he makes it to the second but stranger things have happened. However with three seconds, Gutey could use one to trade up and and get him, aka Watson last year.
Still a solid draft by Jersey Al. Good rational behind each pick.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 09:03 am
I was told by this NFC Scout a couple of weekends ago that Hyatt has a difficult attitude. He didn't elaborate and I didn't ask exactly what that meant, but my sense is he wouldn't touch him.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:30 am
I heard same, Knock.
StarrtoRodgers
April 26, 2023 at 07:47 pm
"I heard same, Knock"
Greengold,
What is your source for Hyatt's attitude?
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 10:44 am
Some Mocks have the Chargers bagging Mayer with their first election. Would they snag him with #13? Let the Games begin. I have Kraft rated equally with Mayer and a better athlete. I like the move down to #19 with Tampa who is hungry for a QB, but they may move to the upper ten rds. to seek their guy in Levis, or Stroud may fall. Unless Paris Johnson ,or Broderick Jones is staring them in the face a trade down should be the strategy. He and Schneider may have a deal in place for #20 ?
Packer_Fan
April 26, 2023 at 08:15 am
NickPerry, I am with you. Since Edge and TE positions both have a deep draft, trade down like you said and get four picks in the top 60. You can fill the Edge and TE positions and have two more picks to choose a OT,DL or WR. And more choices to have a better chance of getting at least a good starter for the future. Taking a swing at 13 is always risky and I prefer having the chances lincrease to be successful.
JerseyAl
April 26, 2023 at 08:38 am
I was all-in on a trade down until the pick swap with the Jets. That makes me believe they are targeting someone up there. Of course, if he's not available, they could then try to trade down.
PatrickGB
April 26, 2023 at 08:58 am
Al, I love you, But NO to any TE at #1. There will be a plethora of them later.
JerseyAl
April 27, 2023 at 01:16 pm
PatrickGB, can't a guy have some fun?
SoCalJim
April 26, 2023 at 09:20 am
JerseyAl: “ I was all-in on a trade down until the pick swap with the Jets. That makes me believe they are targeting someone up there. Of course, if he's not available, they could then try to trade down.”
My take on the 1st round swap is that Gute sees #13 as a better pick to swing a trade down. #15 might not attract a trade partner.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:57 am
Exactly, SoCalJim!!! Gutekunst knows he’s going to trade OL away to NYJ, and will need to in-fill a couple starters, plus quality depth.
Many won’t acknowledge that, but NYJ can’t draft them because they will slot into their draft position price tags, which they will have no cap dollars for - especially while needing to re-sign Quinnen Williams.
Money talks. OL traded for can be cap manipulated more readily via extensions/restructures. It’s NYJ’s only avenue to protect AR.
The Packers benefit by being their facilitator, and taking more of their picks. Happy days.
BirdDogUni
April 26, 2023 at 11:49 am
I just did a Mock Draft on PFF.
Traded 13 to the Jets for 15, 112, 143, and a 3rd round pick next year. Lol
They drafted Brodrick Jones at 13. Idk what will happen tomorrow, but Broderick Jones was high on draft boards in January and is still high on draft boards. I know the "real" draft isn't PFF draft simulator, but if Gutey could trade down a couple times to add 2nd or 3rd round picks or future picks, I think that would be much more beneficial than drafting at 13 this year.
I then traded 15 to the Ravens for 22, 86, and a '24 3rd round pick.
22 Darnell Washington TE Georgia
42 Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
45 Jonathan Mingo WR Mississippi
78 Darius Rush CB/S South Carolina
86 Andre Carter II OLB ARMY
112 Cory Trice CB/S Purdue
116 Zack Kuntz TE Old Dominion
143 Bryce Ford-Wheaton
149 Anthony Johnson Jr. SAF Iowa State
207 Dorian Thompson-Robinson QB UCLA
232 Jacob Slade DL Michigan State
235 Ochaun Mathis OLB Nebraska
242 Tavius Robinson Mississippi
256 Jake Witt T Northern Michigan
Love the optimism of Mock Drafts. Anything is possible.
I think Darnell Washington will go much higher than most people think. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers were to draft him at 21. It seems like the draft gets crazier every year. My hope is Gutey doesn't trade up one time in this draft. I don't mind if he trades down, but I will be very disappointed if wastes picks to move up.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 03:22 pm
BDU, I agree on DW and think even 22 is too late. He’s going to blow the doors off this NFL in the right system.
As a blocker? He can start for us instantly. As a receiver? Highly underrated.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:14 am
Why wouldn’t you take the value? It’s a better chance of finding a trade partner. It looks pretty clear that the Jets didn’t want to have no second round pick. Getting Rodgers, I can see why they need it. I don’t read much from that other than getting as much value as we could.
StarrtoRodgers
April 26, 2023 at 07:56 pm
"It looks pretty clear that the Jets didn’t want to have no second round pick. Getting Rodgers, I can see why they need it. "
Coldworld,
Such a stupid statement as usual.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 10:52 am
Good call on Bergeron. Four-year starter and a guy to finally fill Bulaga's spot @ RT.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 09:04 am
A trade down to the Chargers is unpredictable and decent chance it would not get you a 2nd rounder. It might only become a 3rd rounder. Be interesting to see!
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 10:06 am
If all the Chargers offer is a 3rd, no deal there...that would be a steal for the Chargers (unless they also toss in their 4th, 5th, and 6th).
They won't be the only team calling Gutey before the clock starts ticking at #13.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:25 am
Nick, I think SEA is our best trade partner from 13, getting their 20 and 37. We would have to throw them 149.
Rather have that than LAC’s 21 and 54.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 01:59 pm
You would have to ask the Chargers lol
SicSemperTyrannis
April 27, 2023 at 10:34 am
I think TE fits our offensive scheme better than WR and would like to see Gutey take the best TE possible. The top 3 look way better than the rest and most mocks have at least 2 of them going before #21.
packerbackerjim
April 26, 2023 at 06:30 am
The Achilles Heel for GB has been lack of depth at a critical position (losing the SB to Elway). Safety is the biggest need, but this draft isn’t going to help with that. EDGE is a position of need that can be addressed via the draft and will actually make the back end better to some degree. I think The Trade offers Gute maneuverability to move up or down if he has a prime target in mind.
mrtundra
April 26, 2023 at 10:46 am
As far as Safety goes, in this draft, I think Brian Branch and Sydney Brown are worth picking. Everyone else is chances, IMO.
packerbackerjim
April 26, 2023 at 11:09 am
I like those guys also, Antonio Johnson too, but threading the needle to draft them where it makes sense is difficult. Plus they need two capable of starting, not JAGs. Not counting on Savage improving his game. I would like to think Gute has a Plan B. And C.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 05:05 pm
Hey brother!
Sydney Brown is a smurf. He’s not even 5-10… Though he’s listed as such. Some list him at 6-0. This no knock on you, my friend.
Love his play, but, Savage looks like a giant next to him!
Lol.
They’re all chances.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 07:34 pm
He’s short but 211. That’s 13 pounds heavier than Savage, who is listed as an inch taller at 5’11 than Brown was measured at the combine.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:02 pm
I like Sydney Brown a lot. Fact remains, there’s some big dudes that will require being brought down.
There’s outliers, for sure, and SB will have to be all the outlier he can possibly be.
Receiving targets are not getting any smaller.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 02:00 pm
You can cover up weaknesses in the back end by being dominant in the front end. Trade up for Will Anderson. Im goint to will it into existance lol
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 06:42 am
Great stuff, Al.
Have to agree with your Mayer over Washington pick, JMart over Jammie R.
Rice, Whyle both very solid choices.
Bennett, Johnson (gem!!!) both solid.
Rydland. I like your pick here. I don’t draft, but if I did, I wouldn’t take a Kicker. Despite that, I like your choice of Rydland.
McDonald & Bergeron are not my cup of tea, but… I’m just a fan.
Are you picking Bergeron thinking Bak stays here?
Mayer is the most complete TE with the resume to prove it. My counter on that is Washington has the ceiling to be a generational talent, and he’s already a better blocker.
McDonald? RUN STOP. It doesn’t exist with him. It’s arguably our greatest team need category. Run stop.
For that reason, I think our picks will look very different in terms of order. There are key components needed to complete delivery to Barry the players he needs on D up top, coupled with more trades on the way during the draft with NYJ and other teams to bring us more selections in the heart of this draft.
I think GB taps WR and DT or EDGE with 2 R1 picks. A nod to Wendell’s positional value piece - a concept that is very, very real. IMO, positional value may carry as much weight with Gutekunst as RAS. TE is a need, but starters can be found throughout R1-R6. We may even have one or two already on our roster at TE.
Gutekunst will trade down from 13 w SEA for 20 & 37 is my guess. Then he’ll trade OL to NYJ returning the 15 choice back to GB. At 43 NYJ likely trades that to us for more OL.
These trades are arguably NYJ’s best route - maybe the only avenue they can yet afford - to acquire the players they need to protect Aaron Rodgers. The 65% condition locks us into helping them here.
It behooves the Packers to assist the Jets in protecting AR, and they will pay us handsomely in picks. Hey, we’ll take more picks!
Why would Jets do that?
1. #32 ranked OL.
2. $$$$ - they don’t have enough left to pay for a draft while still needing to re-sign Quinnen Williams.
BUY THAT BEAUTY OF A CHTV DRAFT GUIDE! It’s fantastic!
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2023 at 10:28 am
Quinnen Williams is on his 5th year option, just like Gary. The Jets are more likely to extend Williams while gaining $2M or so on his cap number than have any problem signing their draft picks.
I am also waiting to see if and how AR will adjust his contract to provide a bit of cap relief to the Jets. The only way to do that is a pay cut or a deferral of money into 2024. No, the Packers won't get any relief - they are stuck with the $40.3M dead money hit. OTC notes that the Packers do have to make sure that none of the proration for the $58M sticks with the Packers on the 2023 league year with a credit coming back in 2024. That seems odd if GB hasn't paid any money, but the explanation for how the exercising of the option would work never made a lot of sense to me.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 11:08 am
Hey, TGR! Thanks for that.
My thinking on the picks for NYJ at 15 and 43, 115 is the way those slots must pay out. There’s no wiggle room or restructuring/extending with newly drafted players.
$2M from Quinnen won’t touch half of the charges on those 3 picks combined.
Add in the uncertainty with rookie OL, Aaron Rodgers’ general distrust of rookies, Woody’s quest for “plug & play players, no matter the cost, and our OL all fully trained in what Hackett will run?
That’s immense VALUE we have to give them in trade.
To us? We look at Hanson and laugh, Newman, rolleyes… yet, both players, are better than any OGs or OTs that the Jets currently have, and Aaron knows them well. Key, they are highly tradable for GB at this time. Runyan? Quality starter but we could do better. Myers? Same.
My guess is we will clean up bigtime with draft picks.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2023 at 11:56 am
The Jets have quite a few places to generate cap and they need to before the trade can become official. No argument there.
I suspect that Williams wants the sun and the moon after 12.5 sacks last year. I'd guess NY gives him a nice contract now that they made the plunge with Rodgers. Maybe he wants a bit of Venus, as well, though.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 02:22 pm
Yeah. That’s been my read on it too. NYJ are taking on a ton of cap, and I think they don’t have a ton of options to reload OL other than trading with GB for system trained players, paying in more premium draft capital for known quantities.
Btw, I’ve been doing my best to figure out the numbers.
That OL they have now is a hot mess at all 5 positions. Unsustainable. Something has to give there to protect Aaron, and it will be the Jets giving more prime picks to GB.
We can survive this, easy, starting a new era. GB can trade later for LT or OG if need be, or sign FAs. NYJ will be hard pressed to do either.
This is their “all-in,” and the Packers will be the beneficiaries.
If it actually happens, I’ll be doing cartwheels.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 27, 2023 at 10:41 am
We got over $14MM cap space from AR12.
StarrtoRodgers
April 26, 2023 at 08:08 pm
"Gutekunst will trade down from 13 w SEA for 20 & 37 is my guess. Then he’ll trade OL to NYJ returning the 15 choice back to GB. At 43 NYJ likely trades that to us for more OL."
Then maybe Jets will trade Rodgers back to Green Bay for Love.
GregC
April 26, 2023 at 06:50 am
I like this mock. I've been moving in the same direction myself on that first pick: If they really like one of the TEs there, go ahead and take him. Trading down would probably be the better option in that scenario, but there may not be any takers. I wonder if there will be a run on TEs late in the first round and early in the second round so that the really good ones are all off the board by pick #42. And let's face it: The need for a high quality TE is desperate.
murf7777
April 26, 2023 at 08:48 am
I fear taking TE’s high in the draft, the history of busts or at least not meeting up to the draft position is large. I would take the chance that some good ones will be there at 42. OL is the QB’s best friend, especially a young QB who will need that extra fraction of a second to make a decision. Take an OT because Bak will be traded or cut next year because of SC issues. If they took a OT high, it wouldn’t surprise me if they traded Bak this year if they had any takers.
GregC
April 26, 2023 at 09:25 am
Makes sense. I still lean more toward OLB or OT with that 13th pick. I'll remain on the fence though, as the Packer front office knows a lot more about these guys than I do.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 11:06 am
All the top guys will be off the board by the 50s in Round Two.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 11:19 am
All the Top 50 players will be gone by the mid 50s…
Book it! LOL, jannes!!!
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 11:30 am
Follow the posting. The Top TEs, bro.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 03:35 pm
Just having fun with it. No worries. My brain is scrambled.
Btw, I’ve got what I believe to be a great sleeper TE. Rock solid in- line. +Blocking. + Receiving. + Size.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 27, 2023 at 10:43 am
TE fits our offensive scheme better than WR. The only question is who can get more YAC at +/- 3 yards from the line of scrimmage.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 06:59 am
I really think the future is Bijon Robinson Rb .
And hate the idea of OT unless Bahk is traded.
So this is my Best Assumption.
13. Nolan Smith. Edge
42. Darnell Washington TE GEo
45. Antonio Johnson S. Tex A & M
78. Rashee Rice. WR. SMU
116. Luke Schoonmaker TE. Mch.
149. Tanner McKee. QB Stanford
207. Hunter Luepke. FB. ND st.
232. Ronnie Bell WR. Mi
235. Jonah Tavai. DL. SD st.
242. Dante Stills. DL. W. Vig.
256c. Alex Forsyth. C Oregon
PackEyedOptimist
April 26, 2023 at 07:24 am
I'd be very happy with this draft, Stock.
The Washington/Schoonmaker pair is great.
I'm a McKee fan if he falls right.
I like adding juice to the defense with Smith.
Oh, and on the Consensus Board, Bijan went at #9. I'd love to have him too.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 07:33 am
Your Choice of Adetomiwa Adebawore. Was great.
But I'm seeing him go in the 30s. So I took Safety.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 12:14 pm
#13 to NOLA for #29 & #40.
#29 Felix-Uzomah Edge
#40 Cedric Tillman WR
#42 Tucker Kraft TE
#45 Keeanu Benton 3Tech
#78 Bergeron RT
#116 Cory Trice CB
#149 Schoonmaker TE
#207 McBride UAB RB
#232 Incoom C.Mich Edge
#235 Johnson ISU S
#242 K. Coburn DT
#256 K. Averett Sled dog TE
Bring in a vet QB later on.
Kraft's Pro Day: 4.49- 4.55 40dash, 36-1/2" vertical, 23 reps @ 6'-5", 259lbs. Big YAC guy.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 12:48 pm
Schoolmaker was 149 - Draft TEk
He's now @ 99. The jump was too much for me.
I really liked Robinson S. @116. The packers had him in.
He's 75 to 116 - But the jump to 75 didn't work for me.
My original thinking was DJ Turner @ 45 and move Savage in.
I took the guy that dropped!
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 01:54 pm
Move Douglas to the Safety spot and put Trice on the perimeter. No more big runs on 3rd down. This guy re-signed HIS safeties. It is not that big a deal, use bigger CBs who can play the ball. Turner would be chopped up by opponents running games. Tariq Carpenter was drafted to be the third, Big safety for Run-Stop sets. I like Sydney Brown best if he goes safety, but I want Sacks, a pro-ready WR and TEs.
Schoonmaker was always a four pick watching him at Michigan. Durham would be the next guy in the order. Get guys who know the New Offenses, can catch the ball and knock guys out of the way in space. I like Davis as an Inline guy. He held the edge. Kraft is my guy.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 02:07 pm
Turner has the speed, but is light.
As much as I think he can tackle.
It might be asking to much at FS. Too soon.
Especially until he bulks up.
So that is why I settled on Johnson.
And Douglass wouldn't have to move then.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 02:14 pm
I like him as a nickel/cover CB, but I like the big ,fast badass guys better. Trice, Stevenson, Mehki Garner. Get rid of the Finesse defense. Albert Breer's mock on SI made the most sense of any from the amateur hour. He had Felix going to NOLA. I would even take him with the #13.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 03:38 pm
You seriously don’t think he goes with Aaron?
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 05:50 pm
I’ll assume the thumbs down is a no. A double negative is a positive. So, “yes,” then?
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:39 am
If Bijan is staring at us at 13… I think Gutekunst could get a king’s ransom from DAL in trade.
We don’t have the need this year, and another baller RB will be available next year when we will likely need another.
I can foresee Gutekunst cleaning up in trade down from 13, with other picks from NYJ for OL. Can also see him trading some from R2-7 to add higher picks onto our 2024 draft.
Want to draft a TE R1 next year? That may be a good year to do so. 2024 draft is going to be great.
BirdDogUni
April 26, 2023 at 12:06 pm
I agree if we're at 13 and Broderick Jones and Bijan Robinson are both still on the board, Gutey should trade down. Hoping he trades back to 15 and takes the Jets 112, 143, and their 3rd rounder next year. Lol
If Bijan doesn't go to NE at 14 and we're on the clock and he's still on the board, he'll be fielding calls for Bijan and we can only hope he makes a killing in return. I still think Gibbs could easily have the better NFL career, depending on where he lands.
Gibbs speed is game changing and the variety of ways you could utilize his talents are endless. Will be fun to see Gutey work tomorrow night. Just hope he can find trade partners and brings his "A" game!
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:41 pm
Dude, I think we’ll get 15 back outright. Watch it all happen. Deal’s already done IMO. They just won’t announce it till Jets are on clock at 15.
Btw, I LOVE Gibbs to GB and could easily see him picked by Gutekunst.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 01:11 pm
Bahk @ 42 to the Jets for #15?
You then can take a OL.
Taking the OT puts him on the Bench.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 08:49 pm
Bak will garner more than the 43, but we will get that 15 back and much more in return for all the players I mentioned.
HawkPacker
April 26, 2023 at 07:44 am
Stock, I am surprised that you say the future is Bijon Robinson but then pick Nolan Smith, Edge?
Oppy
April 26, 2023 at 10:45 am
hedging bets.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 12:15 pm
That is because Robinson is a Fit for Atlanta @ 8 or Philly @10.
I went Edge. Smith has skills, Bend, speed for the corner.
Smith would play anywhere- Versatility over Van Es. ( Part- Timer)
Who must add strength. And would they put him on the DL?
Murphy Has the size but he should have dominated and didn't.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 08:01 am
This draft isn’t a bad one in theory, particularly early, but I’m not sure about fit later. I’m not all that keen on Rice, he doesn’t play to his timings and his agility is highly suspect for a guy that will need to play in traffic a lot. I also wouldn’t take a QB that high or McKee if we did.
As to Luepke, I like him as a FB but I have grave doubts whether we’d use one enough under LaFleur. Bell is another 3rd WR prospect I’d pass on. We have them and, especially if we had taken Rice already. There is no size/speed prospect here at WR or Lazard replacement I see (unless you’d use a TE). I think that’s what we need. Stills and Tavai are late picks, so questions are to be expected, however, I’m not sure either helps in the run game even with development.
That said, I’d be happy with 4 of your top 5 picks and with Smith at 13. That’s quite possibly better than I will like what we actually get.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:45 am
I like Al’s R6 QB Stetson better. Especially if we add Washington. Agree with his reasoning too. He handles the big stage with rings to prove it.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:22 am
If we pick a QB, I want one with upside and correctable technique for Clements to get his hands on. I’m not interested in a journeyman upside rookie. There are a number of those late or in UDFA. Pick up the best out scouts see, but not before round 6 or, even better, 7. There really aren’t any in the mid rounds ready enough to be a better QB2 than Etling this year and also possessing upside, in my view. This is a very weak class with some wild card unpolished prospects with potential at the back end.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2023 at 10:39 am
Tim Boyle might get released by the Jets, but probably not until September. They might just keep Boyle since his cap number is only $940K so releasing him saves almost nothing. I assume that AR is QB1, Zach Wilson is QB2 (and can't be dumped since his contract is fully guaranteed, but perhaps NY can find a taker) and then Boyle.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 11:00 am
Etling can at least run. Boyle is no better as proven. Benkert too. If injury happens then fine, but I see no reason to tinker for the degree of difference.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 11:41 am
I’m 100% with you in thinking we don’t need to draft a QB, but, if they draft one, gimme Stetson. The intangibles with big game experience cannot be denied.
Stetson has skills to mold.
BirdDogUni
April 26, 2023 at 12:13 pm
You're drafting the person too, so I am not sure his personality is one you want in your locker room as a backup. His persona is huge. Cocky would be an understatement. Lol
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 01:02 pm
Particularly with a new starter. He is reportedly off a number of boards.
StarrtoRodgers
April 26, 2023 at 08:47 pm
"I like Al’s R6 QB Stetson better"
Stetson may end up a better pro than Jordan.
Best data points on both Stetson and Love - and Rodgers too - was their performances against BIG TIME opponents.
The game is played 90% between the ears and that will be painfully evident for Green Bay by no later than game 7.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 12:24 pm
Rice may go in the 60s . He was liked at the senior -Bowl .
The only question about him; is Route running. Not speed.
Not Hands. Not toughness.
McKee is a pocket passer. Not scrambler. He can throw the ball.
He was a Value back-up pick. Was rated in Top 50 - Deep Thrower!!
Bell is 6th rd. Good hands. And Luepke is everything Dillion is. Plus TE.
Watch his tape - Might go 5th rd. But Can you say KUHN!
The DL is weak, but we need someone besides Wyatt.
Without over spending.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 02:03 pm
If he went with Bijan, Dillon would be traded during the draft. I still like the trade down into the 20's and get my Edge and another two pick. I would use 2024 picks to Maneuver for value. The sit on your hands and Hope next year in the answer is defeatist. Play to Win, now. Give Love a Chance.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 02:32 pm
But Dillion won't be here, and he backs up Jones.
Figure the cap into this.
Any Edge is a hope for next year. (Later in 1st)
I would have to Reach for Defense.
Trading down brings you "small guys" Offense.
I have a second rd. grade on All TEs.
The guy that ran 4.5 and won the best TE award, went @50.
He had Great hands.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 07:24 pm
Translation, please. If he selects Bijan, why would he keep Dillon? Uzomah > Nolan Smith. I had McBride and Abe Lucas in round two last season's draft when we posted our final mock picks, but he went with the psycho @ #22, instead of Watson. He still had a chance to snag Bellinger, or even Ferguson, but chose to go with Rhyan. Doubs saved his draft.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 27, 2023 at 10:49 am
With 2 backup QBs, why draft another? We need the best kicker.
pantz_bURp
April 26, 2023 at 07:04 am
I have never, and I mean never guessed any of the Packer's first three picks right (much less the later rounds).
I am just going to watch it all unfold. I'm as giddy and proud as a lumberjack of a man can be. I am probably going to be as proud as my mom and pops when I was born. :)
Go Pack Go! Gute is so money, and he doesn't even know it. Throw a bone to Mark and let him pick the 3rd rounder (if we still have it)
Me likey!
PeteK
April 26, 2023 at 08:31 am
LOL, Cobb was my only correct guess.
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 02:34 pm
Last year this blind squirrel found two acorns for the first time. My #1 WR was Watson...and Doubs #2 (after I watched his video). I still am amazed Gutey drafted both!
I usually go hungry during the draft.
T7Steve
April 26, 2023 at 03:32 pm
LOL.
I'm the same way. I'll stick to the draft from the keg. That way when I miss it's just a little sloppy.
Just looking forward to watching J. Love develop into something between Favre and Rodgers. Strong arm, staying power with accuracy and smarts. If you're somewhere between 2 hall of framers, doesn't that make you one too?
PackEyedOptimist
April 26, 2023 at 07:20 am
First off, Al, I want to say you remain one of my favorite Packer writers in all the internet.
Secondly, I'm curious what simulator or way you decided who would be available at each pick?
Thirdly, using today's nflmockdraftdatabase consensus big board (as of 6 hours ago) I'm choosing these:
13: OT Paris Johnson - He was there at 13 and makes sense as a BPA
42: ED/DL Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern - Both flexibility and potential
45: DL Keenu Benton, Wisconsin - I see a lot of Kenny Clark in him
78: WR Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss - A big slot/YAC who's a deep threat
116: TE Zack Kuntz, Old Dominion - High RAS, BPA gods didn't give a TE sooner
149: TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati - Good receiving TE prospect
207: CB/S Chamarri Conner - I think he can be a good safety
232: FB/TE Hunter Luepke, North Dakota St. - When DeGuara was hurt our offense died
235: QB Max Duggan, TCU - not starting caliber, but a very good PS guy, winner
242: WR Matt Landers, Arkansas - BPA tall deep threat if Watson is injured
256: TE Noah Gindorff, North Dakota State: 6'8" blocker, Watson's teammate
JerseyAl
April 26, 2023 at 08:42 am
I don't use a simulator - there's too many inputs from non-scouts. I have a couple of value boards from scouting orgs that I use. I've found them to be more accurate. And no, I'm not telling...
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:12 am
I just, for the one and only time this year, played with the PFF one. I listed my first outcome here, then did a bunch looking to identify assumptions. Yes, riddled with positional and other questionable ratings based on who drops, how far and how often. Fun though, for 30 minutes.
MainePackFan
April 26, 2023 at 08:50 am
This would be a solid draft, but I would like to see a RB in there somewhere instead of 3 to 4 TE's. I doubt Duggan makes it to 235 but I love the pick.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 12:39 pm
My problem was safety. Where is yours? #207 ?
I know it's a weak class. It said there is No wrap up tackler.
But I'm still seeing Branch at #13. The need is that great.
I took the guy dropping. He had an off year tackling but has the tools
Wasn't that better than Branch @13?
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 05:09 pm
Make the trade for Budda Baker.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:25 pm
Hey my brother. Have you looked at Budda Bakers’ stats? I thought same as you, then reconsidered. He might do better in this D tho. Tough call.
jannesbjornson
April 27, 2023 at 11:17 am
I had Anthony Johnson from Iowa State in there. He has a bunch of sp teams safeties. One of them should contribute something? Ji'Ayir Brown from Penn state intrigues me because he plays to the ball. 9 Ints and the forced fumbles, so smart with his hands. If he was there in the fifth,OK. I don't think he gets out of the fourth and I have dialed in on Trice to fill the CB needs. Rudy Ford can't figure it out. He gave the 5th year to His Guy and now he will have to live with it.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 27, 2023 at 10:54 am
3 TEs but no kicker?
jannesbjornson
April 27, 2023 at 11:06 am
They re-sign Crosby or a UDFA. I scoped Moody in the 7th in previous considerations, or Ryland. We will know on Saturday.
BradHTX
April 26, 2023 at 07:34 am
What interesting times we live in. Even though we’ve all known the trade was happening for years now (feels like), when the news broke that it was done, it felt very strange to read it, that it was actually happening. Reading Aaron’s goodbye message yesterday brought a bit of a lump to my throat. So I’m going to just step back for a moment from the draft talk and say…
Thank you, Aaron Rodgers, for all the joy you brought us over the last decade and a half. You are one of the smartest and most physically gifted men to ever play the game, and it was a privilege to root for you all these years. Most of the time, you delivered greatness. When you did not (and you do have your flaws like everyone else, you “complicated fella,” you) it was frustrating, but we never had reason to lose hope; there was always a strong possibility next year would be better, unlike some teams like Cleveland. It sucks that for about five years of your tenure here, the ship needed righting, and also that the end got weird. You should be leaving with at least three rings (2014 and 2020), and that you aren’t is partially not your fault. I sincerely hope you win one more with the Jets this coming season.
Gazing into my crystal ball, I see the Packers being much better than most people expect this first year with Love under center. I think Gute adds some legit firepower in this draft, Love plays competent football, and they finish middle of the pack, around 9-8. Aaron enjoys another late-career renaissance reunited with Hackett in NY, winning his second ring. He decides to come back for another go in 2024. With the salary cap in better shape, Gute is able to fix a few more problems, and a more seasoned Love leads the team to the Super Bowl going head-to-head against his old mentor.
The winner? Ah, the ball grows dim… We shall see.
PeteK
April 26, 2023 at 08:01 am
Agree fully and felt the same emotions. That was a very classy and heart felt goodbye on Rodgers part. On to the future.
MainePackFan
April 26, 2023 at 09:53 am
Well said. I share your sentiments BradHTX.
StarrtoRodgers
April 26, 2023 at 09:19 pm
"and they finish middle of the pack, around 9-8."
BradHTX,
And with Rodgers they would be 13-4 - give or take a game - as the only reasons they faltered from the 13-3, 13-3, 13-3, and 3-1 - 42-10 best record in football - they were through game 4 last year was the broken thumb to Rodgers, multiple injuries to defense and receivers, rookie receivers, Brian' and Russ's alienation and loss of Davante and MVS, rotating offensive line with the injured returning, etc.
Any fall off will be due to 1) Jordan Love 2023 not being Aaron Rodgers 2008 (where the fall off from 2007 was purely due to the Defense surrendering 100 more points) and 2) Brian and Russ continued ignorant destruction of the team - scorching the earth for no reason.
Rodgers will complete his 4 year contract (thus with no dead cap at the end) - and renegotiate his contract (if he had not already) with the Jets as he said he would do for the Packers back in January this year - though 2026 and take the Jets to the playoffs each of those years and the Jets fans, contrary to the Spoiled Packer Fans, Church Ladies and those sycophants paid to distribute Packer Management Propaganda, will be ECSTATIC and APPRECIATIVE.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 07:34 am
A distinctive draft. Good to see in that so many by this point become mirrors of each other. That said I don’t like it.
Mayer worries me. He’s a high floor low ceiling risk in my view, due to his all around athletic limitations. To me that’s a third round proposition not a 13th pick. I just fear he’s a great football player in the body of a second team player. At best I see the AJ Hawk of TEs and similar frustration retrospectively.
I generally defer to you on OL knowledge, but I’m not convinced by Bergeron, certainly not as a T. As a G, I’d agree, but I’m not sure that he’s either the BPA or the best marginal upgrade (need) at that position.
So 2 of the first 3 I wouldn’t take. Quite honestly, this just makes me want to trade down more. None of these excite me enough to believe we couldn’t do as well picking later and more often. In fact I think we could do a great deal better.
However, I’m usually wrong about where we see value and true upside. Let’s hope for a surprise drop that fits us it a team desperate to trade up and some diamonds from our scouts in the mid late rounds. UDFA Sunday may be fun again this year too.
Guam
April 26, 2023 at 08:06 am
Iam a lousy evaluator of football talent, so I have to rely on others who have the requisite knowledge. Like you, CW, everything I have read to date indicates that #13 may be high for any of the TEs in this draft. I am hoping Hooker, Levis or Robinson are still available at #13 and some team will trade up to get him giving the Packers a #1 in the 20s and another second rounder. Then use that #1 for a TE and the acquired #2 for a DL. Otherwise happy with Al's draft.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:54 pm
Guam, I like your scenario, and I’m liking trading down.
BUT, The_Baloney_Stops_Here convinced me today that the move to #13 puts us within striking range to trade with Arizona Cardinals for the #3 overall to take the best player in the draft, EDGE Will Anderson.
Why not?
That would cost us probably #13, 42 and 78 - or - 13 and a 2024 R1 and 2024 R2.
If someone told you a couple of months ago trade compensation for AR would be Will Anderson, the best player in this draft?
Hell YES, right?
Now, add to that the possibility we get #15 back, plus the NYJ 43, and 115 plus 2024 picks for Bak, Runyan, Myers, Hanson & Newman… an entire OL to a team that has literally nothing at all 5 OL positions.
NYJ cannot add OL sufficient enough to protect AR with the little draft they have, and likely cannot afford even to pay a 2023 draft class. I think it’s going to happen.
Zach Tom’s best position is Center.
We might walk away with both Will Anderson AND either Paris Johnson Jr. or Broderick Jones!
Imagine that. #s 3, 15, 43, 45, 112, 116, 143… and on and on. Maybe trade that 15 down after taking Will Anderson.
I like this quite a lot.
PeteK
April 26, 2023 at 08:08 am
Love the UDFAs, Patrick and Barnes were good finds and Lazard, Tonyan-- UDFAs from other teams. Gute has the knack.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 10:16 pm
He really, really does, Pete.
Gutekunst has done a great job in making GB a hot destination for UDFAs. All because they know they’ll get a square shot at catching onto the roster.
BradHTX
April 26, 2023 at 08:12 am
“At best I see the AJ Hawk of TEs”
I’m with you on this, CW. I fear that Mayer is a player who will have a good career, maybe even a Pro Bowl selection or two, but never be dominant. Think Kyle Rudolph 2.0. There’s nothing wrong with those players, you want them as the basis of your roster. But ideally, you want those guys on Day 2 of the draft, not the top half of Day 1. And especially when there are legitimately a half dozen guys at that position who are likely to have careers just as good, I simply don’t see the value at #13.
If the Packers were in contention this year, with just a hole at TE and one that is simply competent would be enough to push them over the top, then great, take Mayer — he’ll be competent from the get-go. That’s not the situation the Packers are in. Spend #13 on a premium position like OT or Edge. Heck, even WR (though I’m unconvinced this is the year to draft one in the 1st). Or else trade that 1st for more ammo late in Day 1 and in Day 2.
Three “red chip” players in the 1st and 2nd are better than one in the 2nd and one in the 1st that you hoped was a “blue” and turns out not to be. That can happen with any player at any position, granted, but with Mayer the athletic testing really suggests it’s more likely than not. I know some will respond “Yeah, who cares, he’s a PLAYER” and you may be right. At 13, I still want them to swing for the fences on a player with a legit chance at dominance, even if it’s not this year. If that guy isn’t there, trade down. A career of mere competence can be had for a cheaper price.
GregC
April 26, 2023 at 08:58 am
"The A.J. Hawk of TEs." Well, if that's true, he's definitely not worth picking at #13. The Packers' last first round TE, Bubba Franks, was kind of like that. He made it to some Pro Bowls, but it was in an era of weak TEs, at least in the NFC.
Leatherhead
April 26, 2023 at 09:50 am
Let me tell you something about AJ Hawk.
He didn't miss games or practices, he reworked his contract twice to stay with the team, he's the all-time leading tackler for the franchise and he's a Packer HOFer.
If we take a guy at 13 who has a similar career, we should all be thankful.
I think our first three picks will be a WR, an OT, and an Edge. I think that we can find a TE on Day 3 that can do 90% of what those early TEs do. I wouldn't be upset with Mayer, because I think he's a very good player. I just think we'd get more bang for the buck with a WR at #13. Or even an OT.
I do like Rice, but not as much as Tillman.
Bergeron has ended up in a huge number of my mocks. Him and Freeland. IF we don't take an OT with our first pick, either one of those guys on Day Two would be fine.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:01 am
AJ Hawk was a good football player and Packer. He’d have been a great second round pick.
Oppy
April 26, 2023 at 11:48 am
AJ Hawk is so misunderstood.
He was drafted to play weak side LB in a 4-3, but he transitioned to playing inside in Capers' 3-4. He basically changed his body type to do so.
All he did was what was asked of him.
Considering most first round picks 'bust', I'd say he was fine where he was picked, considering he played a full career as a starter. No, he wasn't a flashy playmaker, but then, he wasn't tasked with being one, either.
Hawk got a bad rap for making tackles "10 yards downfield", a rep, that in my opinion, was developed because he was often chasing down plays from behind because the other LB missed his tackle.
BradHTX
April 26, 2023 at 02:49 pm
I would never call AJ Hawk a bust. He had a long and successful career as a Packer, and did the job he was asked to do competently and without complaint.
But he also wasn't a difference-maker player. He may be in the Packers HOF, but his name isn't destined for the Ring of Honor, and he won't be in Canton. Most players drafted in the first round aren't, there's no shame in that. But for a player drafted #5 overall to be best described as "assignment-sure," not "dominant," is a disappointment. That is not a reflection on him; maybe on Thompson, maybe on Capers, but it doesn't change the fact that he was a solid player who didn't exactly live up to his draft status.
StarrtoRodgers
April 26, 2023 at 09:41 pm
"Let me tell you something about AJ Hawk.
He didn't miss games or practices, he reworked his contract twice to stay with the team, he's the all-time leading tackler for the franchise and he's a Packer HOFer.
"If we take a guy at 13 who has a similar career, we should all be thankful."
Leatherhead,
Exactly!
Who are these people?
Certainly not Packer fans.
Must be arm chair QBs or Church Ladies.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 09:35 pm
Not all OTs make great OGs.
Get a real OG with Steve Avila R2. That’s some serious stuff there. Tough as nails and never gets beat. Ever.
Personally, I think we’ll need OG on an Elgton Jenkins level. Avila. Torrence. Both fit the bill.
jannesbjornson
April 27, 2023 at 07:18 am
Vorhees is the sleeper. He will come back from the ACL. He is a beast and Sidy Sow.
HawkPacker
April 26, 2023 at 07:41 am
Good draft Al but I do have a question and comment:
'Round 5 #149) TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati, 6' 248lbs' you state that 'Whyle has the size and physical traits you look for in an in-line tight end'. Isn't 6' a bit short for a tight end or is this a misprint?
I am going by your thoughts on Paris Johnson in that if he is not available, we should move back in the first round to pick up Mayer, Washington or Kincaid who are all three excellent TE's and then have an additional 2nd rounder. I would hope that by moving down we could accomplish this as an additional 2nd rounder would be priceless.
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 08:14 am
Whyle is 6'6". I like this day 3 pick a lot.
JerseyAl
April 26, 2023 at 08:43 am
whoops - typo. I'll fix it
Since'61
April 26, 2023 at 07:42 am
IF neither Paris Johnson or Mayer are available when the Packers pick at 13 they should trade down later into the first and also pick up an additional 2nd rounder. This assumes that they find a trading partner. If the players the Packers really want are not available trade down and have 5 picks in the top 100. At that point trust your scouting and your board. Thanks, Since '61
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 08:17 am
You need someone to dance with, but a trade down with #13 to remain in the first round (and a 5 year contracted rookie prospect) and get a third 2nd in this draft makes so much sense given depth at top Packer positions of need.
Should be a fun draft. Expect many cheers and simultaneous howls.
Since'61
April 26, 2023 at 09:10 am
LambeauPlain - except for possibly watching the Packers first round selection I won't be watching the rest of the draft. For me it's a snoring festival to watch the NFL draft. I'll get updates on the Packers selections on my phone which is good enough for me since I don't know any of the players anyway. They are all just names to me at this point. No cheers or howls from me.
However I will check out the Packers selections thanks to my CHTV draft guide and get to know the players once they have been selected.
I hope that you and the other draftniks enjoy the show. Thanks, Since '61
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 10:12 am
I only watch when the Packers are picking. I am far from a draftnik. Others here are much more knowledgeable than me.
I do enjoy reading up on the Packers picks after their selection like you do.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 11:29 am
The Cheeseheadtv draft party generates some good jokes as the spectacle drags on.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 11:50 am
CHTV’s Draft Party ROCKS!
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 02:30 pm
Read you there!
dobber
April 26, 2023 at 09:10 am
Also been reading reports that so far, teams picking in the 20s that have been looking to trade up are looking for someone to fire-sale a pick. Essentially hoping to prey on some GM so desperate to move down that they'll give that pick away well under expected value. That's par for the course leading up to draft day, but they end up finding a way of working out (unless you're the Vikes who hosed themselves last year dealing in division with Detroit).
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 09:39 am
We all want that if we are moving up, certainly don’t want to seem desperate. I ignore all of that chatter. What happens will unfold as the cards get turned over. Everyone is playing poker now.
BirdDogUni
April 26, 2023 at 12:25 pm
As long as Gutey isn't playing Checkers, we ought to be alright...
Leatherhead
April 26, 2023 at 09:52 am
What if Paris Johnson and Mayer are BOTH available?
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:08 am
Trade down or, if you can’t get a good enough deal, take Paris as quality over need. There are plenty of better permutations at TE.
Unless you believe that Washington is a standout upside worth gambling on later or that Kincaid is the best weapon as a catcher in this draft then there no TE worth higher than 20 and maybe not until round 2. Marginal athletes with high floors are graveyard picks.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 01:54 pm
If Washington isn't there. Musgrave should be.
He's coming off a injury. But if you want another
good TE. He must be included in the conversation.
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 02:50 pm
Musgrave exploded into the 2022 season then got hurt. Boom Bust pick. Given his tremendous athletic ability, probably more boom.
I love Washington's size and blocking but cool on him for his lack of receiving and little display of improving there. Could be a player who feels he can coast on his physical talent. The NFL will dissuade him of that notion.
Given the weak TE room, I would probably take Mayer first for his skills at both blocking and receiving, Kincaid 2nd for his excellence as a receiver and "want to" as a blocker (shows he can do it, but wasn't asked to in college), then Washington 3rd for his blocking who should be able to catch better than he has shown (that concerns me a bit).
All three would be assets, though.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 11:41 am
Johnson.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 02:58 pm
Calijah Kancey. That’s my 13 pick for the Packers.
You don’t pass on the next Aaron Donald.
Since'61
April 26, 2023 at 05:26 pm
LH if they are both available I would take Paris Johnson. Always build upon the OL and DL. Can't have enough of the big nasties. Need to win the LOS on both sides of the ball to win games in the NFL. Thanks, Since '61
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 02:55 pm
I think SEA is our best trade partner in a trade down from 13 Add pick 149 for SEA’s 20 and 37.
WD
April 26, 2023 at 07:45 am
In general this a good mock for the Packers. I think depending on how it goes some fine tuning may be in order. My view is we invested in three or four OL last year who show promise and therefore the OL is not a top priority. Although, if one of the top tier is available I know it would be tempting. However, what is the opportunity cost? I believe we can get a top tier Edge at 13 and we need to take advantage. Age and injury have left the Edge vulnerable. In addition we couldn't stop the run. Moreover, we were the 5th worst in sacks in the league. If Miles Murphy or Van ness or Nolan Smith are there at 13 you take one. Second round could land one of the big three at TE or arguably at worst Sam La Porta or even Luke Musgrave.. Third pick address safety with one of the Illinois safeties preferably Sydney Brown who is bigger and actually runs in the 4.4 range. In the third round a WR or OL best available. I do not see WR as critical as I really like are current slot receiver Samori Tour. I suspect in this years draft he would easily be a second round pick. One publication indicated he was the most underrated player in last years draft. The Packers still underrate him. I expect him to shine this year..... if given the opportunity. Finally, I think the best TE in this years draft for the Packers would be Darnell Washington. Georgia used him mainly as a blocker. He is both bigger and faster than the other two and has great hands. At 6'7 265 he catches the ball with one hand and would be a cure for our inability to score near the goal line. Of course Gute is aware of more than I am so I am confident it will be a great draft for GB. Thanks again for a great article. Thanks also to Cheesehead TV.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 11:59 am
Totally agree with you, WD. I think we’ll trade down and will take Darnell Washington. IMO, he’s the best Pro prospect. A lot to prove, but not as a blocker, which already sets him apart on the value scale.
He was a 60 catch WR coming into Georgia before switching to TE, and I have few doubts about his abilities as a receiver, if any. Georgia’s move TE got the majority of targets, and he’s likely the best TE in the nation for next season. Makes sense.
PeteK
April 26, 2023 at 07:46 am
I have a bit more faith in Bak, Nijman, and Tom ( fingers and toes and everything crossed), but understand the importance of another T. However, I would trade down a bit and get another high pick. I fully agree on Mayer, and hope we can get him later than 13, and then....
DT- already mentioned
S- Brown or Branch ( a CB might fit here, let the coaches fill the S position from our group of CBs)
T, edge, WR ( I like the change of pace the smaller receivers give us and Derious Davis is my favorite or the Deuce) CB, QB, Kicker
Let the holiday season begin !!!
Cubbygold
April 26, 2023 at 08:53 am
A piece to this puzzle as well is the system MLF wants to run. An investment in TE may have a bigger impact on the OL than drafting another T this year, though obviously that pick would be for future years after 69 is gone.
Agree though, would hope we could get a great TE at a later pick.
croatpackfan
April 26, 2023 at 07:48 am
I'm not draft guy. I have little to no oportunity to watch college football, so I have no idea who is NFL ready (if any), who is player with huge potential and who is ok.
I read CHTV Draft Guide and I can say it is very nice and informative. Still, I believe many will be surprised with what Packers do and who they will pick.
What I believe is that when someone is unanimously assess as the best player on the bord except QBs, like Jaxon Smith-Njigba he has 90% chance to turn out to be bust. You may ask based on what? Based on past drafts. I will mention just one name, but there are many - Johnny "Football" Manziel and many QBs taken at the top of the draft position. There are rare number of elite WRs taken in the first 10 picks.
Al, I would like to hear your estimation how much is NFL play speed faster than college play speed. 2×, 3×, 4×? The question is can player transfer and improve the play speed from college to NFL, or his dominant college play speed is the top level he can achieve. I believe there is why many FO are interested in RAS player can get. Also there is the question of fooball instinct, you can not measure, but it is very important in playing at higher game speed.
I read from many fans here how they want another high speed WR to complement Watson. But than what you'll do in the red zone, where is the most important quickness, not speed. For example, Davante Adams, younger Cobb, somewhat Doubs and Toure. I know that long throws and long TDs are good feel plays, but most of the TDs are scored from inside 10 to 15 yards, where great speed is of little if any importance.
I would like to add that I really liked Brian Gutekunst statement that Packers want to summon the most balanced team. I believe that is the right view for building the roster.
PeteK
April 26, 2023 at 08:14 am
A 6' 4" 265 Lbs bear of a man, Mayer is your answer in the red zone.
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 10:41 am
So is Kincaid, but Mayer will also lay credible wood on his way into the RZ.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 11:20 am
6’4, 265 isn’t big enough alone in the NFL. An end zone threat needs good hands obviously, but he needs also to sense coverage and find space or to have enough burst or explosion to get vertical or break clear.
Kincaid didn’t record a vertical but he’s good at finding space and has some suddenness.
Washington does not have a good vertical, but he’s 3 inches talker with longer arms and has elite burst. We don’t know if he can read and find space. He can also be a very effective decoy/blocker in red zone situations, akin to Lewis, compared to the others.
Meyer us neither sudden nor a great leaper. He does seem to have some ability to find space.
Any should represent a help over what we have. None are obviously perfect. Pick your poison. 2 of the 3 would be great in my opinion.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 02:05 pm
The answer to our redzone ailments is to get back to giving aaron jones the ball near the goalline. One of the best redzone runners ive ever seen. Just has a nose for the endzone. He had a combined 25 rushing tds in 2019 and 2020 when they had one of the best redzone offenses in football. In the 2 years since then, he has a combined 6 rushing tds and the redzone offense has taken a turn for the worst. Sometimes it really is that simple.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 02:13 pm
Totally totally agree.
Run the freaking rock!!!
On 1st & goal, you stand a 75% chance of scoring a TD rushing 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs.
Gregg Easterbrook (Tuesday Morning QB)
murf7777
April 26, 2023 at 07:52 am
Being that OL has the lowest bust rate and TE is one of the highest I would prefer an OL pick at 13. There are plenty of Edge and TE prospects that you can draft them in the 2nd round. The other option is try to trade down, which I prefer and stack some draft picks for this year or next.
My favorite would be if we could trade down to the end of the first or beginning of 2nd and pick up another 1st round pick for 2024 similar to what we did with the trade with New Orleans. That would potentially give us 3 number 1’s next year to trade up to get the top QB next year as insurance in case Love stinks it up this year. It still gives us 3 picks in the top 50 this year.
You can get a discount and better value by trading for a pick into the following year, for those who are willing to wait. So you could probably trade down into he lower part of the 1st and still get a first next year.
Cubbygold
April 26, 2023 at 08:44 am
Made a comment below with a similar theme. I think this draft will be very interesting in telling us how much confidence the team has in Love. Do they trade future assets to try and load the team up with young talent today? Or do they do the opposite like you're suggesting and make the 2024 draft the real reset, with a top QB as the primary pick? Excited to see it play out, but obviously hoping Love is great.
murf7777
April 26, 2023 at 08:58 am
Absolutely, I hope Love is great. He has all the athletic tangibles with a strong arm. The BIG question as it is with any QB is how do they handle reading defenses, the pressure and make consistent throws. It certainly is another step above college and the main reason why QB’s are such a miss in the draft. You can test all the physical tangibles, but not the head to the level of any accuracy to determine NFL QB success at a high level.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 09:35 am
No matter how good they think Love is, we shouldn’t go all in this year with a first year starter. If he’s good, as the cap starts to ease, then we can think about that. This should be a restock and grow by development year primarily. Maximize flexibility for next year with some cap and a much better knowledge of what both Love and this coaching staff offer.
Cubbygold
April 26, 2023 at 09:57 am
Definitely shouldn't be going 'all in', I agree.
Just saying, if they've seen enough to think Love is the future, then they should do something to accelerate the competitive abilities of the team around him. Now, if they were that confident they'd have already started contract negotiations with Love so that they could create stability and try to get him at an affordable rate over a longer time period. I don't think it's possible to have properly evaluated Love to that extent in the limited action he's seen, so I agree with you that this is a year to develop and evaluate. Just hard to properly evaluate when you're not surrounded by talent due to cap limitations.
Not arguing for trading that '24 pick away for something in '23, just saying that it will be interesting to see if Gute does use it.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:16 pm
I know what you’re saying, Cubby, but I firmly believe they know what they have in Love, and that they’ll extend him post draft.
Right now, I think their main focus is trades remaining to complete w NYJ, Draft & UDFA. Love won’t have to wait out 2023 as a prove it year.
We’ll have so many picks if we trade OL to Jets, coupled with a possible 13 trade down with SEA. Getting quality weapons shouldn’t be a problem while adding OT, EDGE/ DL.
Leatherhead
April 26, 2023 at 10:02 am
How much confidence they have in Love?
Well, let's see. They traded up to draft him. Then they traded away their HOF QB who was just one season past being the MVP. He's been described as Rodgers 2.0. Rodgers has said he's going to be a real good player. His teammates who see him on the practice field think he's a starting QB. And Gutekunst, who has more to lose than anybody if Love isn't good, has said he's ready.
So yeah, the team has confidence in Love.
I don't think we'll have to trade future assets to load up talent, at least on the offensive side of the ball. We return six starting caliber linemen and an excellent 1-2 punch at RB. That's half our offense. And we've got a big gun at WR in Watson, and some complementary guys around him.
Without any trade downs or anything, we could get the best WR in the class with #13 and a pretty good one at #78. That would still leave us with #43 and #45.
You don't need an infinite number of weapons because there's only one ball, half the time the RB gets it, and another 10 plays will go to Watson. That leaves about 20 plays for all the other weapons. What we need is ONE big gun and another good complementary player. That would give us a core of four WRs over the next several years .
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:18 pm
Exactly.
Cubbygold
April 26, 2023 at 02:34 pm
I hope you're right and I hope Love is great!
dobber
April 26, 2023 at 09:19 am
Part of why OL have low bust rates is that you're talking mostly about LT candidates in round 1, and they have 9 lives. If they don't stick on the left side, they move to the right or inside to G....and then they often will get second and third chances on other teams that other position players might not.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 09:41 am
Very true Dobber.
Leatherhead
April 26, 2023 at 10:07 am
Starting in high school or earlier, you always put your best lineman at left tackle, and these guys who are LTs in the draft have been distilled down for 10 years, they are usually huge, unbelievably strong, and aren't involved in high speed collisions.
You know, when you've got a 330 lb 23 year old in your way, it's not that easy to get past him. These guys will always have value, even if they can't stick at LT.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:28 am
Assuming your QB is right handed, yes. You want the biggest mismatch on the blind side.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2023 at 07:45 pm
Hendrickson came over the right flank and did his damage. Both OTs have to be blue chips if you want to succeed in the passing game.
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 10:47 am
That's a good observation, Dobber. OL prospects do indeed have 5 positional lives on the team that drafts them. And the fact Big Men in the NFL are not a commodity...they have that "value" thing going for them.
WD
April 26, 2023 at 02:31 pm
While it is true there are multiple TEs and Edge in round two they tend to be all in the upper half. Plus there are no certainties . When you trade down it is like looking for a new Cadillac in a Ford show room . Again if Myles Murphy (Edge) is on the board at 13...take him. He is a potential game changer.Think Rashad Gary only faster. With our two picks in the second round we will likely be able to find an excellent TE maybe even Washington. With our other second pick take a Safety like Antonio Jackson . Round three consider a slot WR like Marvin Mims who is small but runs with blazing speed (4.3 range) Finally for depth add O and D line a QB and a kicker. This would be my blueprint. Also don't be afraid to take someone most have never heard of, Samori Toure was a steal in the 7th round last year.
murf7777
April 26, 2023 at 08:18 pm
Was it his 50% catch rate or the 5 catches last year that makes Toure a steal? Also, If I remember correct Gary was the fastest ever at his weight. I like Murphy, but to state he faster I’d have to second guess that one.
WD
April 27, 2023 at 08:27 am
Murf 7777. Both Edge Players are about the same Ht and Wt. Both can play DE or OLB. In terms of testing speed Gary 's fastest time was a 4.57 forty at the combine. Myles Murphy ran a blazing 4.51 at his Clemson pro day. My point is they are very comparable. And yes, I believe for a 7th round pick Toure was a steal. I do not know who you were watching dropping all those passes. He was one of the better receivers during the preseason.He also has 4.4 speed. It is a shame that Cheesehead does not always give the forty times. Generally all things being equal you want bigger, faster, and the most athletic players regardless of position. My point about Toure is that he deserves a chance to show what he has.The top four relievers in this draft are virtually interchangeable Therefor I hope we do not draft a WR with our first pick. If a receiver is chosen I would prefer in it be TE Kincaid. However because there is a number of TE's I would wait on that as well. Bottom Line if Edge's Van Ness, Nolan Smith or Myles Murphy are there at 13 take one. If not trade down and grab the premier TE with the lower first round pick either Kincaid, Mayer,Washington or even Sam Laporta whoever best is available
mrtundra
April 26, 2023 at 08:04 am
Here's my first mock, from PFN, that I did after the Rodgers trade was announced: 13) Nolan Smith, Edge (Paris Johnson and Skoronski were gone); 42) Darnell Washington, TE. ( Kincaid was gone); 45) Cedric Tillman WR; 78) Sidney Brown, S; 116) Byron Young, DT; 149) Michael Wilson, WR; 207) Josh Whylie, TE; 232) Tyson Bagent, QB; 235) Spencer Anderson, OT/OG/C; 242) Jalen Wayne, WR (Homage to Joseph Randolph); 256) Tre Tucker, WR/KR.
murf7777
April 26, 2023 at 08:41 am
Nice draft, even thou I like Brown I’d like to get an OT in the 4th round. I doubt Tillman to be there at 78, but if he is he should end our 3rd round curse.
mrtundra
April 26, 2023 at 10:53 am
The two OTs i like were gone before my 13th pick, I think we may be in better shape, on our OL, this season, than people think. Nijman and TOm have played well for us. We need Sean Rhyan, Rasheed Walker, Luke Tenuta, Jean Delance and Caleb Jones to show us something, in camp. Newman and Hanson can step up their level of play, as well.
Racingdad
April 26, 2023 at 12:02 pm
A tackle that should be there in fourth is wanna morris 8.72 ras 6’5” 307 played RT long arms ( a key for tacked) needs some polish but would be nice pick. As for a center spencer Anderson in 7th big guy decent ras
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 01:08 pm
Racingdad, I’m totally with you on Wanya Morris.
As a matter of fact, I prefer many R3 or later OTs to others up top. This is a good OT class overall.
Saldiveri offers multiple position strength OT/OG, C, and is a great 3 year starter at RT. Did not give up a sack in 2022. He’s got top quickness & mirror. Needs technique on hand placement. R3-4.
Warren quality 4 year starter at LT for Pitt. I freaking love this guy. Missed last half season with meniscus tear left knee. R4-5.
Blake Freeland. Tall punishing baby monster with solid technique to mold. R5.
Asim Richards - great development piece for GB’s Steno.
Warren McClendon? Monster. Just 2 holding penalties in last 28 starts at RT. Might have knee recovery schedule. R6.
John Ojukwu. Massive and checks every OT gift box physically. 5 year mainstay LT starter. R6.
Earl Bostick Jr. Former TE monster who knows how to move. Needs development in run blocking technique. R6-7.
Everyone I’ve listed here has a massive wingspan.
At OG: Torrence & Avila are my huge crushes. I’d be thrilled if Gutekunst snaps one of them Day1 orDay 2.
I’d prefer either over many top OTs for this draft.
WD
April 27, 2023 at 08:41 am
Right on Mrtondra! You have really done your homework! I would be ecstatic if this happens. However, I doubt if Nolan Smith drops to 13. In that event, I think Van Ness or Myles Murphy would be suitable substitutes. Love your other picks as well. General consensus seem to indicate Packers will go offense first with TE, WR or a premier OL if available. Time will tell. But, I am with you. Defense wins championships!
Handsback
April 26, 2023 at 08:21 am
Al I think you're right in your thought process but I differ on a couple of items. Gutsey will take a player that he considers a top 5 to 10 rated player if they drop. Its a BPA league and he will leap. If they aren't there he will trade down and get more premium picks and take the BPA from that TE, OT, Edge list.
The difference between the tiers of those three positions is less significant than in past years.
This year GB needs lots of good players from this draft, starters or good backups to develop .It won't shock me to see a lot of draft GB's draft picks go to smaller school players esp. for WR and safeties.
My last thought...not ruling out Robinson the RB as that 1st pick. He is the perfect compliment to the RBs in house and insurance to keep MLF's offense going next year w/o Jones.
dobber
April 26, 2023 at 09:45 am
" Gutsey will take a player that he considers a top 5 to 10 rated player if they drop. Its a BPA league and he will leap."
He's not afraid to go get a player he really likes if the price is right, that's for sure. My fear is that he'll give away found money in the 2nd round to move into the top 10. People seem to be unimpressed by Meyer, but if you're not happy with your options at that point (13) and nobody is willing to give you value for the pick, he's a safe pick. I don't expect the Packers to use 13 tomorrow night, but looking at the options at that point, I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers end up picking the steady, "sure-thing" rather than reaching on a high ceiling/low floor guy.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 08:28 am
Ok, close enough to the draft to play the simulation game. Using PFF with trades:
30. Dalton Kincaid. TE Utah
42. Keion White. EDGE Georgia Tech
45. Cedric Tillman. WR Tennessee
82. Jammie Robinson S Florida State
149. Ali Gaye EDGE LSU
196. Jalen Redmond DT Oklahoma
207. Camren McDonald. TE Florida State
232. Matt Landers WR Arkansas
235.Tim DeMorat QB Fordham
242. Jake Witt OT Northern Michigan
256. T.J. Bass. OG Oregon
Kincaid was there, which seems dubious. but there were other alternatives of his type into the 4th. Tillman and Landers are similar types, but we need depth on the perimeter.
Cubbygold
April 26, 2023 at 08:41 am
Traded back from 13 to 30? Did you mean 13 because I'm not seeing any picks you picked up in that simulation.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 09:54 am
30. I traded back twice in fact, just didn’t like the board after the first and there were a lot of options left. I picked up some 2024 picks too, but I just gave what I ended up with this year. More interested in what we could get by letting it flow. I don’t really buy their assumptions. To me the later rounds are more “real” than the drops predicted early.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 11:47 am
The Dalton Kincaid selection (in fact they top four picks are solid) if he medically is cleared is a great selection because of what he brings talent wise matching up with the Packers needs. Plus, he has the flexibility to play two very important positions at TE & big/power Slot WR. I have to believe Dalton depending on the way the draft falls is very very high on Gutey's list. This has been my thoughts for several months now.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:21 pm
Can vouch on that last bit!
Lolz
LeotisHarris
April 26, 2023 at 08:35 am
Solid picks, Al, except I'd steer far away from Stetson Bennett. He'll be 26 years old in October, and has the maturity of an 18 year old. His drug/alcohol-related arrest suggests a Johnny Manziel-type persona. Some GMs have suggested he may go undrafted.
Cubbygold
April 26, 2023 at 08:39 am
agree
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 11:56 am
LH,
Or how about a young Brett Favre coming out of college? :)
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:36 pm
Oooo. Didn’t know about that. Thx!
Tundraboy
April 26, 2023 at 08:25 pm
Wow I didn't realize he's 26. With the level of performance in some very big games I agree with Al that is worth a late pick, or undrafted.
Cubbygold
April 26, 2023 at 08:39 am
Excited for the draft and the new talent that will be put into this team. I'm interested to see whether Gute chooses to use that '24 Jets pick in a trade package for a player this year. I think whether he does or not will be a reflection of their confidence in Jordan Love.
I kind of cringe when people say this year is a referendum/evaluation year for Love and MLF. They're going out there this year with $57M in dead cap hits, mostly because of the Rodgers contract. How is it fair to evaluate Love and MLF when they've got such a massive disadvantage this year? That's the equivalent of taking three legitimate starters off the field... any team should struggle a bit with that.
So, if the team is confident in Love, my thought is they should be looking to trade that '24 pick from the Jets for talent in this year's draft in order to help tip the scales back in Love/MLF's favor. Hard to properly evaluate skills when playing with such a disadvantage.
dobber
April 26, 2023 at 09:16 am
"I kind of cringe when people say this year is a referendum/evaluation year for Love and MLF. They're going out there this year with $57M in dead cap hits, mostly because of the Rodgers contract."
I tend to agree: the cap is the driver for a year or maybe two depending on if/how they clear out vets after this season. The Packers will have an eye toward the future with this draft, looking at needed replacements at value spots. I don't think the Packers would be drafting much differently if it were ARod instead of Love at QB.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 12:05 pm
Cubby,
"I'm interested to see whether Gute chooses to use that '24 Jets pick in a trade package for a player this year. I think whether he does or not will be a reflection of their confidence in Jordan Love."
Interesting perspective that I had not thought of but I just do not seeing it being even a consideration. Nor do I see it being a reflection of the Packers confidence in JL. I just don't see Gutey trading away a guaranteed 2nd round pick in the future such as this because of the condition assigned to the 2nd rounder in 2024. Just the mere fact it could escalate and be anywhere in round 2, but also could become a round 1 selection would guarantee Gutey would likely lose out big time using that selection in a trade this year. I don't see anyway possible that pick is traded away this year.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:26 pm
Doubt highly Gutekunst trades away any draft assets from 2024. If anything, they’ll add to 2024, trading a pick or two they get higher round selections with next year to stockpile.
I’m 100% certain we’re not done with taking Jets draft assets, possibly eclipsing the record of 15 draft choices. Especially so with an added 13 trade down with SEA which I believe will happen.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 01:06 pm
GG,
You have been persistent about multiple players traded with the Jet's. I'm intrigued and hope you may be right depending on the compensation return as it would be the Jet's wanting the trade IMO. This is a young Packer team with some talent and whatever they can do to bolster adding more young talent I am all in on.
croatpackfan
April 26, 2023 at 12:24 pm
ACR and Ball today reconstruct the contract to be more friendly deal. It is reported by Tom Pelisario and I believe in that. Because that is the part of trade agreement with Jets. So, I do not know how they can or can not get rid of 40 mill cap hit, but there is some kind of option if they are doing that!
Just saying. And they obviously can at least cut that 17 mill that is left from 57 mill after 40 mill is nothing they can do about. So, there is no 57 (59 or 60 or whatever cap hit is) because you are trading contract not person!
BillHayhoe
April 26, 2023 at 09:03 pm
Can't get full value for that pick as it is conditional
BillHayhoe
April 26, 2023 at 09:04 pm
Can't get full value for that pick as it is conditional
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 08:50 am
I am hoping the Steelers, Chargers and Jaguars are ALL calling Gutey while the Titans and Texans are on the clock.
I just feel like he's going to trade down unless a consensus stud drops at say, Edge or OT.
And yes, if Bijan Robinson is on the board at #13...he would also complicate a trade down decision. He is a clear case study in "talent vs value". However, I believe MLF places a higher "value" on RBs, given the fulcrum they are in his Illusion of Complexity Offense.
Robinson would be an unpopular choice...aka Gary's selection. But like Gary, I believe the howls would soon turn into cheers.
But I remain a proponent of a trade down as this draft's depth sets up so well for the Packers. More talent via rookies on rookie deals will also help tame the cap monster.
HawkPacker
April 26, 2023 at 09:13 am
I like your thinking LP.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:37 am
Robison would be a hard talent to pass, but the timing is all wrong. We have needs now that outweigh the upside if we can get a decent trade. If this team could afford a luxury pick, then it’s different, but we don’t get better meaningfully by making a good position better this year at the price of making 2 better.
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 11:06 am
I understand your thinking. However if Robinson is there at 13, I have a slightly different take.
1. He would contribute immediately in meaningful ways in MLFs IOC offense. If the Packers finally invest in the IOC full bore, Bijan is tailor-made for it. And AJ & AJD have missed snaps due to injuries.
2. Another prolific RB to play all over the formation makes Love's learning curve less steep, I think.
3. Most agree the Packers return to the playoffs is likely a year or two away. Will AJ be here next season due to cap? AJD is going to want a big payday. Two playmakers could be missing from the O as early as next season, so Robinson would be less tactical for 2023, I agree. But a huge strategic selection longer term.
And my "however" comment: I do not think Robinson is on the board at 13. And if he is, the trade down is also more valuable and attractive for Gutey.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 11:32 am
That’s why it’s a difficult choice. However, developing a RB is a questionable investment in comparison to, say, a TE, WR or lineman. Look at McCaffrey. Bijan could have his best years before we are at our best. Not picking him gives us an extra shot to have a more rounded roster this year and next. Overall, I just favor the odds of that route at 13 and believe he could get us a favorable trading partner.
LambeauPlain
April 26, 2023 at 03:04 pm
Fair points. However Robinson would be on a 5 year K...I certainly hope the Pack is back in the playoff hunt before then...
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:32 pm
Yes!
Give me both Felix & Foskey, please. Better value, plus added run stop, and added positional depth with top pass rush talents.
Vachio
April 26, 2023 at 08:51 am
My "off the beaten path" picks at 13...
Calijah Kancey. No sure thing he's there at 13, but if he is, the man is an absolute game wrecker. Looks like Aaron Donald 2.0. Yes, edge is probably a greater need, but with Clark, Wyatt, and Kancey in the QB's face all the time it would be less of an issue.
Bijan Robinson. A running back? GTFO! Hear me out, though. Robinson has the skills to be used as a slot. Let's say we do ~30 running plays a game. 15 for Jones, 10 for Dillon, 5 for Robinson - plus 10-12 plays in the slot for Robinson with 4-5 targets. It would be a nightmare for opposing DCs and I'm all for giving them sleepless nights.
TEs - I would really love to see Washington and Payne Durham out of this draft. Washington can eventually be a sure-handed pass catching threat (remember that Antonio Freeman and Davante Adams had issues with drops early on) and you can't teach his size and athleticism. Him and Durham would absolutely truck everyone both as blockers and with the ball in their hands. It would be fun to watch.
HawkPacker
April 26, 2023 at 09:17 am
Sorry to say that I have not heard of Kancey and don't remember him in any mocks. I like B Robinson a bunch as well as the tight ends you mention.
This just tells me that we need to move down in the draft to get more picks.
Vachio
April 26, 2023 at 11:25 am
Here's a highlight video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ndpuokV6ss
BirdDogUni
April 26, 2023 at 12:42 pm
That's why it wouldn't surprise me if Gutey drafted Kancey. Never thought he'd draft Gary either, but he did...
dobber
April 26, 2023 at 01:09 pm
Gary was on several of the writers' "FUBAR" list on draft day. It's one of my faovorite pieces that show up here on day 1.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:50 am
Kancey is, in a minority of scouts’ opinion, potentially a better edge than DL at this point. That, of course, was said of Donald. Donald has proved that despite his size he can hold up pretty well against the run. However, Kancey has not really.
Could he if really asked? Maybe, but is he really Donald good to the point where he can use his power and athleticism effectively? If not he’s another example of picking a type we have not one we are missing. A not run stout penetrator.
That’s more problematic given the number of snaps we only play 2 DL.
However, if we see him as a potential Garry type, heavy, power, burst edge who plays hand down as much as standing, then we may really covet him. If he can succeed in that role then I’m all for picking him. I just don’t know if we think that’s credible athletically and in our system. I can see it in my minds eye and find it appealing, but only if that’s actually how we see him would I pick him.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:37 pm
Vachio!!! Yes to Kancey & Washington. 100%.
RCPackerFan
April 26, 2023 at 08:58 am
Without seeing how the other draft picks fell, its hard to know who was on the board during your selections and for me to "grade" this draft.
But just running through this mock draft and my thoughts.
First I agree that they will draft a TE and Edge with 2 of their first 3 picks. Gutey specifically mentioned those 2 positions. If they keep the 3 picks, I do believe those will be 2 of the 3 picks. I don't know if it will be OT though for the 3rd spot. I can see DL, OL, WR. A surprise pick could be CB.
As for the the picks here.
Mayer - One of my biggest problems with Mayer his his speed. He isn't an explosive type of TE. He is more of a mauler type. Maybe it will translate to the pros, but its hard for me to add a TE at 13 that isn't an explosive type that creates mismatches.
McDonald - I like McDonald. If he is available I would definitely be happy with it. I am hoping they draft an explosive Edge rusher. Someone with speed coming off the edge. We lack that on defense.
My question with these first 2 picks. Would you rather have Mayer and McDonald or Nolan Smith and Darnell Washington?
Bergeron - He feels like a Packers type of OL. He could play OT or move inside. I would be good if they drafted him. I just don't know if they are going to go with OT this high. I wouldn't be surprised if they did or didn't. I could see DL here. Keeanu Benton, Mazi Smith, Gervon Dexter Sr. are a few guys to keep an eye on.
Rashee Rice - I like Rice. I would be happy if they can get him.
Jartavius Martin - Martin could be that Nickel Safety that they wanted Savage to be. Martin could fit a good role in this defense.
Josh Whyle - Whyle has the size that you look for. And he has the ability to be an inline TE which they do need. Another guy to watch for the 2nd TE is Luke Schoonmaker. I think he is being under valued in this draft.
Stetson Bennett - I believe they will draft a QB in the draft. I'm not sure if it will be Bennett, but they I think they will draft one for sure.
Quindell Johnson - I would like this pick. I feel like they need to draft at least 1.
Chad Ryland - It will be interesting to see what happens at Kicker. Now that the Rodgers deal is done, do they bring back Crosby, do they look to draft a guy? It will be interesting to see what happens.
DL Dante Stills - They lost 2 DL this offseason. They probably need to gain 2 in the draft.
WR Jalen Wayne - like DL, they need a couple of more WR's. The 7th round WR will need to be a special teams player. Don't be surprised if they look for a guy that can be a returner with this pick.
In this mock draft, there were 2 each at TE, WR, and Safety. 1 at Edge, DL, QB, OT, K. I do believe they will double up at TE and WR. I can see DL also. And I can see them doubling up on OL again. 3 years in a row they drafted 3 OL. I don't see them going 3 again, but can see them going with 2 again.
We are a day a way! I can't wait!
TKWorldWide
April 26, 2023 at 09:36 am
Everyone knows it takes a couple years to evaluate a draft, so, it ought to take even longer to evaluate a mock draft!
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 12:38 pm
I’m still evaluating some of mine from way back!
Not.
BA4Packers
April 26, 2023 at 09:36 am
I’d be very surprised if the Pack picked a TE at 13. That’s a pretty big reach at 13.
Packerpasty
April 26, 2023 at 10:01 am
Hope they hit big time in the draft..some arent so high on the Packers now after "The Trade"
https://fansided.com/2023/04/25/richard-sherman-aaron-rodgers-trade-rant/
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 10:51 am
Lol
Oppy
April 26, 2023 at 10:51 am
Children aren't scared of a hot oven burner until they get burned by it.
Nobody feared the Packers with Aaron Rodgers under center in 2008, either.
Nobody was double teaming Davante Adams in 2014.
Nobody respected Watson's speed until the second half of 2022.
These "Nobody is scared of" rants in regards to unproven talent are, frankly, stupid.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 11:08 am
Sherman was a friend/competitor of Aaron Rodgers. Change is hard for pretty much everyone! Everyone talks about putting a chip on AR's shoulder such as the move to the Jet's for whatever reasons and injustices AR might feel. Well, what about the chip on Jordan Love's shoulders with comments by guys like Sherman?
Hope it is a big chip on your shoulders Jordan and you prove them all wrong!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 11:47 am
Sherman is a clown. Hes taking shots at Packer fans for giving up on Rodgers when he literally hated his own super bowl winning qb.
croatpackfan
April 26, 2023 at 12:40 pm
Richy gave me a good laugh! Did he get job under Seahawks GM, Schneider? He is talent evaluator for sure.
It is always amusing when people who has no knowledge in business talks about it.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 08:13 pm
Yeah if i wanted to know about getting arrested while drunkenly trying to break into someone's house, I'd talk to Sherman.
TacoTuesday
April 26, 2023 at 10:23 am
Defense wins championships.
Would Nolan Smith be there in the second round?
Would it be possible to trade down in the First round to get a third Second round pick this year?
It is a swing for the fences kind of pick.
We need more UGA players.
RCPackerFan
April 26, 2023 at 10:25 am
Games are won/lost in the trenches!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 11:45 am
Do you really want a 230 pound edge player? Imagine Smith trying to set the edge vs the Eagles or 49ers. Imagine him trying to tackle Jalen Hurts. I dont see it.
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 01:00 pm
We tried that with Galeai, who had the speed. Simply manhandled when not a surprise extra rusher. Just use Walker.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 12:56 pm
No- -Everyone has him from 10 to 25.
Watch the film. He's got the Bend and speed.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 01:26 pm
Sure he can bend. Nobody disputes his athletic traits. But can he set the edge against guys hes giving up nearly 100 pounds to? If the answer is no (which is likely) then hes a sitaution pass rusher at best and not worth of the #13 pick.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 02:12 pm
CM3 did. Thats the comparison w/bend.
But if the next DC wants to switch to the 4-2-5.
He's the perfect match
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 08:36 pm
In essence, we are switching to a 4-2-5. True.
stockholder
April 27, 2023 at 07:04 am
Right- More teams are going to it.
I'm seeing Nolan Smith @10.now.
They say he's Reddick.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 10:26 am
These are my final thoughts & ideal mock draft leading up to the draft. It has been a hell of a lot of fun to project & interact with everyone regarding their draft thoughts & own mock drafts.
I flat out am not in love with JSN (though if selected it would not upset me) and do not believe he necessarily provides us our best option in round 1. My feeling arises from JSN's hamstring issues, and the fact I believe the Packers are seeking their preferred prototype size WR, which might allow the Packers to pass on JSN. With the loss of Lazard who while limited from a talent standpoint he provided the Packers with a big/physical target who could block, and make contested catches in traffic. One might argue that a good move TE could also replace what Lazard offered.
There are so many Packer positional needs in the draft (as always), but this year is different when transitioning from AR to Love. The offensive skilled positions are in desperate need of additional firepower. The Packers do not need an OT in round 1, but I think the big unknown is what if Paris Johnson, or Broderick Jones should fall be available? I believe one of these guys being there may just flip the whole direction of the Packer draft, as I do not see how you could pass on one of these 10+ year All-Pro potential type players. Defense need a DT, Edge, and Safety. Here is my final & ideal mock draft:
Round 1 - #16 - Dalton Kincaid - traded #13 down to Washington and picked up their #16 & #47 picks. At #16 my choice was between Dalton Kincaid & Quentin Johnston and I struggled mightily making the decision. Both bigger bodies with speed fitting the Packer prototype. Ultimately, I choose Dalton Kincaid (but only if his back medically cleared) because of his flexibility to be able to rotate between TE to big/power Slot WR when needed. Kincaid provides Gutey incredible flexibility as the rest of the draft unfolds because of being able to play both positions. This flexibility cannot be overlooked as it puts Gutey in a position of strength with the remaining selections. I will add the mock draft simulators are very interesting as one time Washington offers their #16 & $47, and another time their #16 & #97. That is a huge difference but a lesson that a team contacting Gutey and offering a trade up is a big difference from Gutey contacting a team and offering a trade. My hope is once teams see JSN is selected pror to #13 that a number of teams contact Gutey knowing he is likely to want to move back.
Round 2 - #42 - Bryan Bresee, DT as the Packers definitely need help on the DL and Bresee is a round 1 talent who fell. This is not only the BPA, but the BPA at a position of need.
Round 2 - #45 - Darnell Washington, TE who provides exceptional blocking as a traditional in-line TE. With both Kincaid & Washington the Packers are set-up extremely well at the TE position. The drafting of both Kincaid along with Washington is the perfect set-up as to get both on the field together Washington plays the traditional TE, while Kincaid rotates out to Slot WR. This would be dangerous!
Round 2 - #47 - Felix Anudike - Uzomah, Edge who is one of the most under rated players in the draft and possibly a future All - Pro talent.
Round 3 - #78 - Marvin Mims, WR who is a fast talented WR who will provide exceptional starting value.
Round 4 - #116 - Jonathan Mingo, WR who has the size & speed to be the upgrade over Lazard providing that physical presence.
Round 5 - #149 - Trey Dean, Safety
Round 6 - #207 - Aidan O'Connell, QB as the Packers need a young developmental QB behind Love.
Round 7 - #232 - Jalen Redmond, OT as another OT who can compete and strengthen the tackle position
Round 7 - #235 - Josh Whyle, TE another needed reinforcement at TE, particularly if Kincaid is used more at the big/power Slot WR, which I think he will be.
Round 7 - #247 - Noah Ruggles, K to compete in camp
Round 7 - #256 - Jerome Calvin, OG to try taking a late pick to strengthen the inside of the OL.
I was the first to bring up Bijan Robinson and his unbelievable talent & the impact he would have if rotated between RB & Slot WR, however I just do not see Gutey pulling the trigger. He would be fun to watch as a player but also to see how MLF would utilize him in the Packer offense. Regardless of how the draft plays out and who Gutey takes this is one of the most exciting drafts for the Packers in a long-time. The direction the Packers are headed is exciting with a fresh start at QB. Appreciate all the rabid Packer fans and their well thought out pre-draft thoughts from my fellow CCTV friends.
Alberta_Packer
April 26, 2023 at 02:16 pm
An up vote from me. And to anyone else who has taken the time and effort to post their mock draft - for my edification, and, to assuage my guilt of having not done so.
splitpea1
April 26, 2023 at 11:27 am
The mock:
Mayer: There are a lot of fans who seemingly don't like this prospect in the first round, but I can't understand why. Washington may have the bigger upside and could be a clone of M. Lewis down the road, but Mayer is a very polished rookie who should be able to step right in and help.
Rice: No argument on this pick. We need a possession receiver to complement our other guys.
Martin: Totally with you here; love his physical style and tackling ability.
Bennett: Get the air freshener out for this stinky pick! You forgot to mention his public intoxication arrest in Dallas in late January. Prospects who get in trouble with the law before the draft...are stupid. He's also 25 years old. Come on, we can and will do better addressing the backup QB position.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 11:39 am
Split,
Mayer is just not a sexy selection but he is probably one of the safest picks for Gutey. He is young and does pretty much everything okay. You get both the inline & the move TE with him and there is a lot to be said about that. HIs speed & separation is not very good and I believe is his biggest 'knock' against him. I would not be excited about the pick but okay with him, but preferably later in round 1. I believe Mayer & Washington are really hard to predict where they might be drafted. Anywhere from maybe between #15 to #45. That is a huge range and if you really want one of them you might have to use a higher draft pick then you might need just to be safe.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 01:23 pm
Exactly right, Knock.
Mayer is THE safest pick for GB in R1. Problem is he’s the safest R1 pick for any team needing a TE, and there are many. That’s why I agreed with Al, him having a glowing resume.
Is he the fastest? No. Did ANYONE have more deep receptions? No. Can he in-line block? Yes.
There you go.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 11:42 am
Got a lot of downvotes for this yesterday but Im gonna say it again. Its time for Gute to swing for the fences. Trade up for Will Anderson. They have the extra capital to do so without mortgaging the future. Unless the bottom falls out on this team (which is highly unlikely), this is as close as they will get to the top of a draft. And in a year where qb needy teams will undoubtedly overdraft qbs, the path has never been easier. Do it Gute. Go get that elite talent player that this team literally never has a chance at drafting.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 01:51 pm
I find this a super compelling argument, The_Banoney_Stops_Here!!!
Elite EDGE added to this D will transform it completely. He may actually wind up with added draft capital to pull it off. What a coup that would be!!! Holy crap.
We will likely never see a better shot at doing so in Gutekunst’s tenure. Trading up for EDGE Will Anderson could be a move for the ages.
Fits the positional value quotient to a T!!!!!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 01:56 pm
My thoughts exactly. My comp for Anderson is Derrick Thomas. Dude is an absolute gamewrecker. Imagine having to block Anderson, Gary, Clark, and Wyatt. The stuff quarterback nightmares are made of. Im all in.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 02:02 pm
I would fucking LOVE to see it happen.
IMO Gutekunst will recoup his original 15 pick and additional draft capital for OL to the Jets.
It would be hot AF if he pulled all of that off.
Plan smartly for two years of rebuild with premium talents.
TBSH, what do you think it takes to deliver that in trade?
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 02:33 pm
#13, GB 2024 1st, GB 2024 2nd, and probly a 4th or 5th rounder too. That still leaves us with the Jets pick next year which is a 1st at best and 2nd at worst. I can live with that in exchange for a player of Anderson's caliber. And this is coming from a guy who NEVER wants to trade up. Im normally all about trading down and getting more picks. That was my preferred path prior to trading Rodgers. But things have changed and if you're gonna take a swing, swing big. Go hard or go home.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 05:40 pm
Come at me haters! Your downvotes dont phase me!!! No rebuttles tho which tells me a lot.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2023 at 11:45 am
If Paris Johnson or Skoronski fall GB should take that player. I'd be okay with JSN, though I don't think he is worth 13 in a vacuum, but I want Love to have enough receiving talent so Love can be evaluated. This is an evaluate Jordan Love while fixing the cap season, so take talent over need.
Otherwise, I don't think the swap from 15 to 13 is going to turn out to be worth what the trade charts suggest, unless Gute can find a hungry trade partner. I didn't like Mayer at 15 or 20 so paying more for him at 13 is unappealing. Justis Mosqueda thinks Darnell Wright at 13, but I would have thought he would have been there at 15 or 20 as well.
Funny things happen during the draft, with guys falling far sometimes and others going much higher than anticipated. GB should come away with a good player. I don't see a ton of difference between the 15th best prospect and the 35th.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 11:54 am
I agree it will be very difficult for Gutey to pass on one of those top OT's, particularly with all the OL contracts coming up in the next 1 to 2 years. TGR, your comment about Jordan Love is astute being this is a year to evaluate JL, but also to help the offense. Therefore, surround him with some talent at the skilled positions. Give him all the opportunity to be successful.
I don't like any of the TE's at #13, and it isn't until about #20 where I ideally would want to draft one of them. Where & which TE the Packers draft is going to be one of the interesting story lines for me in the draft. Will Gutey first go with a talented move TE, an in-line TE, or maybe the hybrid TE in Mayer who is good at everything, but just not exceptional?
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2023 at 12:17 pm
Cubby and dobber cringe when I write that, and those two have a pretty good track record.
I think GB should focus mostly on talent with a glance towards positional value. I don't care about need very much. I would think that at some point talent and the draft slot will align for a TE, but it doesn't in my opinion at 13. I was not high on rudy ford at safety, but for a year they can live with him. Nixon was interesting when he got his chance. If DB doesn't align, so be it.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 12:52 pm
in 100% agreement about the TE, Safety & DB thoughts. The Packers are not going to be able to adequately address all position needs this year & should adhere to BPA, as well as positional value. I am comfortable with who we have at Safety if need be with an eye on the 2024 draft.
dobber
April 26, 2023 at 01:15 pm
I teach college kids: the 'cringe' is my default response to most things. ;)
Coldworld
April 26, 2023 at 05:38 pm
So it’s your fault?
dobber
April 26, 2023 at 06:21 pm
Do you need to ask?
Alberta_Packer
April 26, 2023 at 12:26 pm
For this draft - and like in High School - I have not done the homework as so many others have. Another reason is due to the number of variables which makes accurate predictions almost impossible. So I gladly look forward to Gutekunst working the draft board - as he is apt to do - with a beer and brat in hand. Still, I do have a wish list - with my greatest being able to get a glimpse of the Packers draft board. Because I'm thinking that it is distinct from the great majority of mock drafts. Above all, after 2+ years, my enthusiasm has been restored.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 12:42 pm
Alberta,
In some ways I am envious as over the years I have become very much a draft nerd spending way too much time. Maybe some day once I retire I won't mind spending the time I do with the Packer draft. My wife already knows these next 3 days I will be parked in front of the TV with my CCTV draft guide & 'lots' of printed mock drafts, so she is busy making plans with her girlfriends.
Specifically, I wanted to respond to your comment "I do have a wish list - with my greatest being able to get a glimpse of the Packers draft board. Because I'm thinking that it is distinct from the great majority of mock drafts."
I had a brief opportunity to discuss just a little about how another NFC team handles their draft in broad terms. The response was.....
1. All the scouts & GM sit down and evaluate everyone in the upcoming draft.
2. Then collectively they assign a grade/value to each player.
3. Then they create their own custom software much like the online Mock Draft Simulators, but with customized values per player. They use this program a lot.
4. They do not use RAS but have created their own computerized program to determine athletic ability.
5. They identify 5 players pre-draft by value/point system for each selection they have in each round, so that if a few are gone the others are there.
6. Allegedly, they take only the BPA with their selections with their first several high picks. They do not draft for needs in those early picks. At a certain point (not sure just when whether by round 3 - 4 - 5) they switch to drafting for the best player at a position of need as at that point it becomes a 'crap shoot'.
7. The scouts & GM openly discuss their preferences leading up to the draft. It isn't a big secret such as it was for Ted Thompson.
I would think the above is very similar to most all NFL teams with the exception of #6.
Alberta_Packer
April 26, 2023 at 01:32 pm
Like you KTSOOY - I am a draft(s) follower. Also, as I enjoy a singular lifestyle, it is easier to indulge my preferences, pleasures and vices. What stood out for me in your reply was your outline of a professional draft board. This might help explain why the Packers may draft a TE later than sooner - or same with a Safety - being 2 positions considered of "high need" and therefore deserving (too many) of a high pick. Whereas the Packers draft board might not have either position valued as a 1st rounder. Conversely, the Gutekunst trade-up for Love was one that surprised many people. For me, these differences of opinion provide for greater entertainment. So now let us greatly enjoy the upcoming 3 days!
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 02:46 pm
LOL!
Having been married for quite a few years my wife has learned one of my vices is the GBP's, and the NFL Draft. She is pretty cool about it! I have been a draft nut long before it became a popular thing. The good thing is I may have strong feelings about who & or what positions the Packers draft, but rarely if ever do I get upset when the Packer GM goes a different direction. There is so much more they are operating from with tons more information than we will ever have. Like this NFC Scout shared with me his team will likely not be interested in Jalen Hyatt as you have to deal with his off field behaviors/traits. This is all stuff none of us know about, or say how they did with the cognitive tests, or about medical exams, etc. Still fun!
Thanks!
Swisch
April 26, 2023 at 03:21 pm
Good stuff, Knock, and all the best to your wife ;-).
(Mine has similar trials with my fondness/fanaticism for sports in general, including the Bucks tonight.)
I like the idea of fans being passionate about our opinions, but also somewhat humble in what we do not know.
I think the fans, as outsiders, can offer a valuable perspective of common sense to experts who may not get enough fresh air into the bubble.
***
It seems unnecessarily risky to take a player in the first three or four rounds who has had unresolved issues off the field, when there are so many others who appear solid off the field.
As human beings, we're never a sure thing off the field, so to speak, but the Packers can try to minimize their risks.
Players who are iffy off the field but seem to be sincerely trying to get their acts together can wait for later rounds, and we genuinely wish them well.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 26, 2023 at 04:21 pm
Thanks Swisch & well said!
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2023 at 01:27 pm
IGNORE THE MIKE FLORIO ARTICLE RE TEMPORARY CAP SAVINGS.
Florio has some of it right, but the gist is that the Packers take the $40.3M dead money. GB saves nothing. The Jets might save something when the re-write AR's contract.
Here's the deal if anyone cares. AR had a $58.3M option bonus which converts to base salary if not exercised. The NFL by convention (i.e., actual practice) assumes that a team will exercise the option even if the team has not in fact exercised the option (per Joel Cory). $58.3M divided by 4 seasons = $14.575M, so the NFL uses his base of $1.165M plus $14.575M plus his old prorations to insert a cap number of $31M or whatever the exact number was, which the Packers had to comply with by March 15, 2023, the start of the 2023 league year.
Per Ken Ingalls (see link), the Packers actually declined the option and simultaneously pushed the $58.3M into 2024 as base salary. That's because the trade is being executed prior to June 1, so that $14.575M would have accelerated into 2023, though the Packers would have gotten a credit/rebate of $14.575M in 2024. Instead, GB eliminated the option altogether.
I've little doubt that the Jets will re-write his contract. They could just make the $58.3M a signing bonus, add a year to the deal to reduce the proration from $14.575M to $11.66M, thereby gaining $2.915M in cap savings. Or the Jets could do something else if desired and AR agrees.
https://twitter.com/KenIngalls/status/1651220698969374721
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2023 at 02:39 pm
Oh, the reason that GB would get a credit/rebate in 2024 of $14.575M is because GB would never have actually paid the money to Rodgers. The NFL assumes the $14.575M proration exists even though the option was never legally executed and so the pseudo proration would accelerate onto the 2023 salary cap despite the absence of any money exchanging hands between AR and GB. This is deep in the woods stuff.
stockholder
April 26, 2023 at 01:58 pm
Obviously you guys think 13 is a unlucky number.
Add it up. It's one more than Rodger's 12.
Forget the trade down.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 02:28 pm
#3 Will Anderson OLB (for #13, 2024 GB 1st, 2024 GB 2nd)
#42 Mazi Smith DT
#45 Sam Laporta TE
#78 Jonathan Mingo WR
#116 Jordan McFadden OT
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 03:46 pm
Seriously. Imagine how that trade alone will transform our defense.
Next year, or subsequent years, we would have to throw one or two R1s to get that high.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 05:39 pm
Most years, when theyre usually picking in the 20s, it would probly take 3 1st round picks plus more to move into the top 5. This is their chance. I doubt it happens, but Im holding out hope lol
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 06:08 pm
You’re 100% correct, TBSH.
I hadn’t considered it realistically at first mention. Didn’t comprehend the significance in being this close to the #3.
I looked at 15 as essentially being two R1s. But, at 13, that 2024 R1 & R2 could swing it.
I’ll guarantee we’ll still have another R1 and R2 to use even if we make the trade up for Will Anderson.
I would totally dig that move.
Essentially trading AR for WA. That’s freaking bananas. Hells to the yes!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 07:17 pm
Exactly. Im going to will it into existance lol
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 07:22 pm
Do it!!!
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 07:22 pm
Do it!!!
Thegreatreynoldo
April 27, 2023 at 12:50 am
This reminds me of a Bill Burr comedy skit.
Just remember that Solomon Thomas was the 3rd overall pick in 2017. If GB trades 13, 42, and 78 for pick #3 and gets the equivalent of Thomas, that would be quite a setback. It also makes watching the draft much less fun, and entertainment is the name of the game here.
13TimeChamps
April 26, 2023 at 07:58 pm
"I’ll guarantee we’ll still have another R1 and R2 to use even if we make the trade up for Will Anderson."
Apparently, you don't understand how "guarantees" work. What exactly is it that you're backing up that guarantee with if it doesn't happen? Freaking bananas or regular bananas?
stormin
April 26, 2023 at 03:40 pm
Heard said, is that Mayer has trouble getting off the line to start his routes !
Qoojo
April 26, 2023 at 05:03 pm
Even though I know very little about Mayer, and players generally available at 13 or at any draft # position, I would certainly be disappointed if they take a TE at #13. I want to see OL/DL/OLB with higher picks because I feel winning the LOS wins the game, so shoot for those genetic freaks early.
If they do pick Mayer, then I will just roll with it and hope for the best. TEs take longer to mature and produce in NFL so need patience. Gute and his crew definitely know far more than me so just trust in the process. I can't really say that I trusted TT in his later years. It would nice if they could get that Georgia TE with a later pick, but he will most likely be gone before GB drafts in 2nd.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 06:16 pm
Yeah, Qoojo. I tend to agree with all of which you’ve said here.
We do need TE, but starters can be readily found through R1-R6.
jhtobias
April 26, 2023 at 07:47 pm
This packer fan will be extremely agitated if they take a defensive player at 13.
For one how many top end talent players can you have on a defense that continues to under achieve and when I say under achieve that is being nice . Tell me how is another defensive player gonna help this defense when the exact same coaching and scheming will be in place this year as last yr and the yr before ?
Lafluer and Berry need to figure this out with what they got and if they can't oh well someone else should
If they stay at 13 take a tight end will be disappointed because of impact value later but still could live with this over a defensive pick at 13. Really don't see the need for OT this high . Wr at 13 I guess they say JSN is worth it so would trust Gutey if this is the pick.
I'm not saying don't draft a Defensive Lineman or Edge or Safety in the draft because they absolutely should. Unfortunately, this coaching staff is completely incapable of using defensive talent to make a difference so it would be a big waste of resources to waste 13 on defense
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 08:09 pm
You keep drafting defensive guys till the defense is elite. Are they supposed to just give up trying to build a great defense? The front office's job is to build a winner, not please you on draft day.
jhtobias
April 26, 2023 at 09:20 pm
Well you snide remark obviously shows your in ability to comprehend the true problem. I wouldn't expect a dolt like yourself to understand . 7 first round picks on defense it's called coaching and schemes which will not be changing.
Then again I'm sure you think Joe Berry and Lafluer are hall of fame coaches
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 26, 2023 at 11:59 pm
Oh were name calling now huh? Cool. You're a child. Already bracing for the inevitable temper tantrum when you dont get your desired toy with your happy meal. Sad.
greengold
April 27, 2023 at 12:18 am
The schemes changed from Capers to Pettine to Barry in that span of picks.
New systems require new player types.
We are about to begin the 3rd draft since Barry’s hiring. With no real $$$ to add FAs of high quality since his hire because AR & Bak contracts crushed our cap.
gsd3
April 27, 2023 at 04:15 am
Not mocking. Just a few guys I would like for the pack:
DL - Benton, Pickens, Ojomo, Stills
Edge - Foskey, McGuire
S / CB - Moss, Johnson, Skinner
OL - McClendon, Daniels, Scruggs, Kirkland
TE - Laporta, Kraft, Whyle. Mayer or Kincaid or Washington in a trade back from 13.
WR - JSN, Mims, Tillman.
ShawnO
April 27, 2023 at 06:54 am
The Packers will never fill all of the holes in the draft, their best option is to not pick for need and go best player available.