Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - Packers Thoughts Feb 16 2021

The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.

 

 

JJ Watt:

Being the cynical/realist type, I had to chuckle when all this "Packers are the favorites to land Watt" stuff started going around. I have no doubt that it's a romantic idea to Watt, going to his favorite boyhood team, but in the end, a good part of the decision will come down to the dollars. What would make them the favorites? The Packers are not in the best position (by far) to overpay (by their standards) a 32-year old player. Many teams can offer him a better deal. That's not to say I wouldn't love to be wrong about this. 

DL:

Speaking of defensive linemen, that was my number one position of need going into last year's draft, and I don't see that changing. Now last year, it was surely spurred on by the beating they took against the run from the 49ers. While this season started off on a similar foot, the run defense definitely improved over the course of the season, but mostly due to better linebacker play. I still want to see a running mate for Kenny Clark that is more than just a lunch pail worker bee. Tampa rode on the backs of their front seven through the playoffs and it payed off big time. So give me some more first round talent on the DL and I'll be a happy guy

Capology:

I've resigned myself to not having the time to get deep into the NFL Salary Cap rabbit hole myself, but I have seen some interesting things lately. Here is a pretty nice overview of what the Packers might be able to do with certain players. And then, I came across this tweet, which lays out a very detailed possible way to free up a bunch of cap space this season. The biggest problem I have with this is it gets rid of 3 starters on defense and one on offense. Only one (P. Smith) has a replacement player (Rashan Gary) that is a sure thing to be as good or better. 

 

Inside linebackers:

Pete Dougherty of PackersNews.com has an interesting article today with a look at the Fangio/Staley scheme and how the Packers' personnel might fit in. One takeaway for me was Pete saying how the scheme puts more responsibilities on the safeties and "de-empasizes inside linebackers." Well that's convenient.

 

Coaching rotation:

So is there some NFC North hidden agreement to share former defensive coordinators? Dom Capers is with the Lions, now Mike Pettine is with the Bears and of course a former DC, Jerry Gray is with the Packers. What's the explanation for this? Are these teams looking for yet another edge against their NFC North Rivals? Oh, and who can the Vikings hire? Is Bob Sanders still around?

 

POLL:

Sorry the poll below isn't working. I'm only leaving it up so our web developers can troubleshoot the problem.

 

Who will be the Packers' starting center in 2021?

Corey Linsley
6% (2 votes)
Elgton Jenkins
32% (11 votes)
Lucas Patrick
38% (13 votes)
Jon Runyan
0% (0 votes)
Jake Hansen
15% (5 votes)
Someone else
9% (3 votes)
Total votes: 34

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__________________________

"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther.  Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP

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Comments (97)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Leatherhead's picture

February 17, 2021 at 08:08 am

I’m not a fan of blowing holes in the lineup for economic reasons.

Jenkins will be the center.

I, too, would like a stud lining up next to Clark for the next four years.

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frankthefork's picture

February 17, 2021 at 10:57 am

Wrong. Patrick or Hanson is the GBP's center unless one who is better is drafted or shows up in camp. Jenkins is one the NFC's best guards why change that?
Hate to lose Lindsey and Lane but it's a numbers first, age, injury game second. None would be in the NFL if they didn't have talent. What, on who and where to put the money is how this business runs!

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dobber's picture

February 17, 2021 at 11:11 am

Normally with all the FA losses, I would be consoling myself with the thought of the strong comp pick harvest they would get next spring. In this case, I'm uncertain as to whether the comp pick formula will take into account what appears to be depressed salaries with a reduced cap. I'd like to think so, but if not, it could be bad timing for the Packer FA losses.

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CheesyTex's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:45 pm

In earlier posts you noted that this draft will rely more than ever on the quality of scouting -- Covid shortened seasons, players opting out, etc.

I'm going with the "glass is half full" and trusting Gute and his scouting staff will nail it this year, and that the mid-round picks will prove invaluable.

Late in posting -- lost power most of the day in Central Texas.

Go Pack.

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Leatherhead's picture

February 17, 2021 at 01:00 pm

Center has more value than guard. They handle the ball , start each play, and direct blocking adjustments. Guards are fungible....even Ron Wolf said you could get a guard anywhere.

Plus, 2021 is the last year of Wagner’s deal, so we’re looking at a long term replacement there and I think we’ll draft an OT this year, not a center.

Left tackle, center, right tackle, left guard, right guard. That’s the order.

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flackcatcher's picture

February 17, 2021 at 05:19 pm

We all know this roster is pretty set for this year. The Packers main concern I guess, is the upcoming draft and how much Cap space they will need for that. Their needs are surprisingly small for the season. Outside of CB, the team has replacements on the roster for LT RB and TE and OLB. That's one impressive performance by Brian Gutekunst and his front office. With FA Cap shrinking, Gute may have flex in the short term with FA signings this season. Of course the JJ Watt and P. Smith and A. Jones and J. Williams all depends on how deep the Packers want to go into Cap debt this year. We'll just have to wait and see how Gute plays this out.

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Fabio's picture

February 17, 2021 at 08:23 am

I still think that before signing for JJW it is better to sign a CB of value (Sherman ??) as it is very difficult to find one ready to win right away .... GPG

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 08:38 am

I was always annoyed by the loudness of Richard Sherman, but wouldn't rule him out. I wonder how the coaches and players would feel about it.
I'm interested in what fans here think about Sherman or Patrick Peterson?

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Fabio's picture

February 17, 2021 at 08:57 am

Hi Swisch. I understand what you mean, but I believe that certain types of players have particular characters, but that doesn't mean they couldn't fit into a team they've had "discussions" with (let's call them that). In my small way I can only say that when I was playing soccer there were some opponents with whom I always had discussions whenever I met them against. Then, in some cases, I found them in the team together and do you know how it ended? ..... they are my greatest friends !! I don't know if this can be carried over into football, I hope so. And if I'm wrong then I apologize for the comment.
GPG

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:23 am

I'm glad to get your comments from Italy, Fabio, and never a need to apologize for a sincere opinion expressed with good will.
I was thinking somewhat similar to you as far as checking with the coaches and players of the Packers about Sherman.
Part of my aversion to Sherman may have to do with him playing for teams that handed us crushing defeats in the playoffs over the years with the Seahawks and 49ers.
He does also seem to be loudly obnoxious, but I'm willing to reconsider.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 03:37 pm

Sherman gets really hot and aggressive during and right after games. But I've seen him interviewed outside of the game setting and he's really intelligent and thoughtful. Exactly the kind of mix that could help the team!

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 05:59 pm

Sherman knows the game and is highly intelligent and will express himself; something certain fans find unsettling. His MMQB blogs were enlightening. My only concern is his injuries to his knees and his preference to stay in the Bay Area.

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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:10 pm

If we got Sherman we would need to design the D to play to his strengths at this point. I’m not sure that’s particularly likely.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:17 pm

Barry plays quarters and thirds, but at this point in the game Sherman can hold his own in combo zones and man sets. He knows what to do and anticipates.

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PeteK's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:20 am

Peterson is my choice, a bit younger and could be cheaper.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 18, 2021 at 02:10 pm

Cheaper means a # one or two pick from the draft. Peterson was around a 14M salary in 2020.

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:35 am

Wow! There's a lot of cornerbacks out there.
I don't know much, if anything, about these guys; and so would be interested if other fans have ideas about which ones may be good signings for the Packers.
I have this impression that Peterson is a real ballhawk who could really help the Packers become more aggressive on defense. What a great foursome we could have across the defensive backfield!
He's expensive, though, so I'm wondering if there are guys less well known at cornerback who may be up and coming -- and would be about as good as Peterson for a lower cost.

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Razer's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:01 am

Thanks for being level-headed about the JJ Watt hype. Given our cap space, needs and Watt's age - I think signing him would be foolish. I think we need two more solid interior linemen to make this defense productive up front. While I like Watt, his price and injury history are not favorable.

I also liked the Tweet repost. I think it maps out most of the logical moves. It also spells out the desperation going forward. If we are going to push all that money out then we better be ALL IN. The hangover will be significant and Packers will be facing lean years. Our only hope is to have a couple of killer drafts to carry us when we are driving on fumes.

Tried to vote for Hanson in your 'center' poll but all the clicking in the world did me no good. Might need my 7 year old niece to show me.

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:02 am

It seems signing J. J. Watt is like signing Aaron Jones.
Just about every fan would love to have both of these guys, but they're probably way too risky when it comes to probable cost versus possible injury.
Although J. J. was healthy for most of last season, I think he may have been injured and more or less unavailable for the playoffs

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dobber's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:04 am

He played 96% of the snaps in their season finale.

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:50 am

Right, the Texans didn't make the playoffs last season.
Thanks sincerely for correcting me discreetly!

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PeteK's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:50 am

and double teaming him next to Clark would be difficult.

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Lphill's picture

February 17, 2021 at 11:52 am

Reggie was 32 when the Packers signed him, Woodson was done when the Packers signed him , anyone here who thinks Watt would not be worth signing is crazy

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Razer's picture

February 17, 2021 at 12:03 pm

Call me crazy then. It will be a lot of money tied up in one option when some younger talent could fill multiple needs and be a foundation going forward. I just like younger eggs.

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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2021 at 05:17 pm

Comparing him to Reggie is like comparing to Peppers, yes it’s possible that he will be great for a few years. Unfortunately, possible is not the same as probable. Comparisons to Woodson is apples to oranges. Woodson was younger and healthy. The questions over him were related to his previous focus.

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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2021 at 08:36 am

Jenkins might be the best center in isolation, but I can see Patrick being the starter with one of Runyon/Stepaniak taking his position. It’s a question of the best 5 as a whole.

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dobber's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:03 am

I agree, and OL should always be about your best 5 in talent and cohesiveness. I think that it will come down to supporting that LT (likely Turner if they don't draft an OT) with the best LG they can put out there...and that's Jenkins at this stage. If Bakhtiari is playing LT, then I think Jenkins to C is a no-brainer. That leaves Patrick, Hanson, or someone not yet on the roster to be your C.

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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:08 pm

Another factor is who is your swing tackle? If that is Jenkins I’d rather not change center as well.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:04 pm

Or they might draft Linsleys's replacement. Jenkins is a better guard.

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PhantomII's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:58 pm

Jenkins is a pro bowl guard, he could be pro Bowl (C), or RT also. Once Linsley leaves the only player better is Bak.

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dobber's picture

February 18, 2021 at 07:26 am

If he's a Pro Bowl T, then they need to put him there. Don't mess around with Wagner or others. Quality OTs are a valuable commodity.

I think this is the prime argument as to why he's probably not a Pro Bowl T.

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 08:50 am

Defensive tackle, cornerback, inside linebacker, offensive lineman.
Take a player from one of those positions in the first round based on which selection is mostly likely to be a star.
In general in the draft, I think it's a balance of both position of need and best player available.
***
As I understand it, the center does a lot as far as calling out protection assignments at the line of scrimmage.
I don't know all that much about Elgton Jenkins, but I have the impression he may have the stature and the smarts to fill this important leadership position on the offensive line for many years to come.
***
So J. J. and his brothers all come over to the Packers -- (is T. J. a free agent next season?) -- and also star in a sitcom set in Pewaukee called, "Watt's Happening."

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Turophile's picture

February 17, 2021 at 08:54 am

My wish for a FA acquisition is Edge Carl Lawson (6'2", approx 260+) who was originally drafted by the Bengals. I liked him in 2017 and still do.

He is a bit tightly wound (the knock on him coming out of college) which makes him more injury prone than some, but he has always been productive. He had 7.5 sacks as a rookie in 2017, suffered an ACL in 2018 and is only 25 (26 in June). He is strong, quick, and has great hand use. If Preston Smith goes, he would be a replacement at (almost) half the cost.

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 08:57 am

What has he done that you like about him since 2018?

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Turophile's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:29 am

Well he sure isn't Khalil Mack, Chandler Jones, or even T.J.Watt, but I think he is good value for something in the $7m range and should look better with Z.Smith and Gary to take some of the load off him. Green Bay is also just a better franchise than the Bengals.......which tbh isn't a team you want to go to war for.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 03:23 pm

Would you kick Za'Darius inside more often in an Aaron Donald role? I could see that. Lawson will probably be even more expensive than Watt, though. We'll have to see how high they set the cap and if the owners manage to sign new TV deals before they do!

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dobber's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:00 am

I think the Packers really like their backup OLBs (Ramsey, Garvin, and Galeai), and might add a day-2/mid-round guy in the draft. I could see a guy like Lawson, especially if his market lags with the depressed cap and he's looking for a one-year opportunity.

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Leatherhead's picture

February 17, 2021 at 01:59 pm

We suit up 4 OLB on gameday.

Smith, Smith, Gary and one more guy.

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Guam's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:46 pm

I think one of those Smiths (P.) will be gone. Purely for financial reasons, but nonetheless gone.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:20 pm

They had two years with the combo to get into the Big Game, it didn't happen. Time to reset and reload. Three or four rookies Edge people in this draft stand out.

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murf7777's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:00 am

I agree that DL is our #1 need. Unfortunately, not a strength in this draft. For those who don’t like light boxes get ready for more because the Rams ran it approximately 85% of the time, most in the NFL. I suspect hybrid safety will also be a need in the draft as Rams utilized this position more to help stop the run. Hopefully, we will be able to stop the run in the Staley defensive scheme if that is what Barry plans to run.

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:08 am

Was the Rams defense of last season similar to the Fangio/Staley scheme that the Packers apparently want to run this season?

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murf7777's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:18 am

Yes, Staley was the D-Coordinator...I think one person they might bring back is M. Adams as the eye test showed he was coming on this year prior to the injury and PFF had him rated as a solid run defender. I don’t think he will get much attention in FA and should be inexpensive to bring back.

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Swisch's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:50 am

Oops, I didn't know about Staley. Thanks sincerely for correcting me without a fuss!

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:24 pm

Depends if his foot issue is a chronic condition.

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Bearmeat's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:41 pm

The Rams also had Aaron Donald. We have KC. He's awesome. But he's not a generational player (yet).

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:26 am

JJ Watt:
Many teams can offer Watt more money. No question. But can other teams offer him what the Packers can? The MVP of the league, an offense that was the best in the league, a defense that was improving with some really good corner pieces already. Lets look at this a bit more...
Watt was the most double teamed player in the league last year. Who was the 2nd most? Za'Darius Smith. They can't double both, especially when Gary and Clark are there. The defense has the best CB in football. The safety's are really good and continue to get better. Adding a player like Watt could put our defense over the top. Its not just his play but his leadership that would make a huge difference.
I get that there is risk in bringing him here. But the upside makes that risk worth it IMO.

DL:
I am looking forward to seeing what Keke does in year 3. I think he could play a vital role for the defensive line. But they do need more help. I liked the additions along the way of Snacks, Wynn and even Price. Lowry played better down the stretch, but he shouldn't be our number 2 DL. He is more of a rotational type of guy. Lancaster is JAG. Fine as a rotational guy but shouldn't be receiving a bulk of the snaps.
DL is one of my top 2 needs for this team entering the offseason. DL and CB are my top 2 needs.

Inside linebackers:
I am looking forward to year 2 for Martin and Barnes. I could see Kirksey being a cap casualty. Whether that happens or not, we shall see. But I think in a new style of defense Martin and Barnes could take a big step next year. I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted another in the mid rounds.
One player I'm kind of curious about is Burks. With a new DC in there does he find a role for him?

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PeteK's picture

February 17, 2021 at 01:17 pm

I think that he would be ok with a one year contract 8-10 mill. He left 17 mill on the table so winning is a priority.

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 17, 2021 at 11:26 am

I can't speak for him, what he wants and whatnot. As far as money goes, I'm sure they could work in bonuses and whatnot. Maybe a lowered base salary but more incentives and bonuses?

I can see him wanting to go play with his brothers too. I can see him wanting to come to GB. Other teams would be flashy as well.

But when all the factors are on the table, I think GB has more to offer then the other teams. They have the QB, the offense, the key players on defense to go with him. And lets not forget that a year and a half ago he said it was a dream come true when he practiced up here for training camp. If it was a dream come true to come here and practice for a week, what would playing here full time be?

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:43 pm

I agree, RCPF. It seems like some of us may be trying to convince themselves he wouldn't drastically improve the defense so that it's less of a letdown if he signs somewhere else. Either that, or they're only counting sacks when considering his production from last year. According to more advanced analysis, he was far and away the best defender on his team, so it's no surprise he didn't lead the league in sacks.

I'm not saying he'd be the next Reggie White, but he'd have a good chance to following in Charles Woodson's success, having more injury luck and productive seasons after 30 than even the most optimistic fans expected. He'd have some much drive to succeed for his hometown team. I wonder if he remembers watching those 1996 & 1997 squads?

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Tabin's picture

February 17, 2021 at 12:48 pm

Forget about Burks, no football IQ there.

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TheKanataThrilla's picture

February 17, 2021 at 09:29 am

I caught some of the highlights of University of Wisconsin-Whitewater Center Quinn Meinerz at the Senior Bowl. He could be an interesting draft pick.

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stockholder's picture

February 17, 2021 at 12:01 pm

2020- 9 selections- Dillion. 2019 -8 selections- Gary -Savage Jenkins. 2018 = 11 selections - Alexander. Gutes Total 28 selections= 5 starters????.

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PeteK's picture

February 17, 2021 at 01:33 pm

You forgot MVS, and give him credit for the numerous undrafted free agents. However, it could have been better.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:34 pm

Has Gutey been perfect? No. But show me a GM who has these last 3 years. A little unfair to judge his success against an unattainable ideal, and not the other fallible men who do the job.

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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2021 at 05:28 pm

Not unusual since we aren’t talking many years. for all but his first draft.

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PeteK's picture

February 17, 2021 at 10:07 am

Pack had Jenkins at center this year, so why not next season. Now that we could have some cap space let's go for it. There are some interesting DTs available : JJ Watt, Williams, Tomlinson, Short. I would sign Watt-1 yr and Short to a non guaranteed contract. I know short has not played much in the last two yrs , but he has a big upside. Peterson could be had for a 3 yr contract with the first two guaranteed. This scenario would allow our draftees some time to develop.

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dobber's picture

February 17, 2021 at 11:07 am

Kawann Short is what they hoped Montravious Adams would become (IMO). As you note, he's been dinged the last couple years, which should depress his market. A healthy Short would be a nice add.

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scullyitsme's picture

February 17, 2021 at 10:33 am

Why not Watt? The cap is an ever moving guideline, almost fictional. Couple years ago we just signed Rodgers to 35 mil and went after Mack at 25 mil. I’m a cynical realist in life, The packers are entertainment, sign whoever at whatever,

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:31 pm

Packers fans make more of the cap, and expect it to limit their teams moves, more than any other NFL fanbase. Perhaps having Ted Thompson as our GM for so many years (who famously told Andrew Brandt he wouldn't be signing many Free Agents the day he became GM) accustomed us to the idea that Free Agency is too expensive, and the Salary Cap is an oppressive barrier to improving the team. Other franchises seem to manage okay signing players even when ostensibly up against the cap.

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Guam's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:52 pm

Yes and frequently those are the teams that go through periodic bloodlettings (and bad seasons) as they have to pare back their signings to fit under the cap (see: Vikings, Minnesota). I prefer a win now philosophy so I would be okay with that, but the Packers clearly prefer a more stable regime and in constant playoff contention.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:29 pm

Touche'

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splitpea1's picture

February 17, 2021 at 11:20 am

NFC North"senior defensive assistants": I don't think it makes a shred of difference--our offense, even with a possibly different look, will chew up our rivals, anyway. The Lions need defensive talent, and the Bears need a whole new offense, coaching included.

I think everybody's with you on the need for another impactful DL to pair with Clark--as long as we're not trading away another high pick to get him. If we can get solid prospects at CB, DL, and T with those first three picks, that would leave us in great shape going forward. And don't overlook Keke; I think he will continue to improve.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:27 pm

Out of all the NFC North teams, the Lions may now have the best coaching staff. You're right about their need to get better players, but Holmes knows the importance of stars after being with LAR for years.

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splitpea1's picture

February 17, 2021 at 03:14 pm

Yeah, I'm not worried about them now, but maybe later....I'm not familiar with every one of the coaches, but a lot of them were notable NFL players. And Anthony Lynn must have been doing something right with Justin Herbert, given the very impressive rookie season he had.

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stockholder's picture

February 17, 2021 at 11:34 am

After Gute's last Draft. I have lost faith in Gute's drafting. Not to mention watching his failures. ( Burks , and Moore. ) With that in mind. Is Kirksey a starter? His replacement showed more. And since Gute never replaced Daniels. Lowrey is Gutes prize. Problem: if the packers won't draft ILB or DL. He still is putting it all on Rodgers. Nobody has Rodgers back;( after Love was drafted.) And now he'll lose players; that protected his butt and took the pressure off. We now have to compare Apples to Apples. Dump last years signings. Franchise Linsley; ( as the cost should go down.) And Let Turner play RT. I'd much rather have Turner's versatility. Not to mention an All-pro C. Of course this doesn't fix the defense. But Watt would! To get there. Why pay any signings last year to sit the bench. And wreck any chance to get better. There's no doubt King is gone. Jackson is the starter. Draft the DL!!!. Double down on it. Gute's vision of the future is a twisted Dream. The only thing that has kept it from a nightmare, is Arron Rodgers.

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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2021 at 05:40 pm

No GM avoids busts. If that causes you to lose confidence, don’t expect to ever recover it.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:40 pm

Seemed somewhat sane until you got to the Jackson is the starter sentence. That guy gets a pink slip.

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stockholder's picture

February 17, 2021 at 07:50 pm

Think of Jarod Bush. And you'll know why I said that. I just have a feeling Gute will blow this draft. The BPA is out. He's already looking at CBs. And he just would rather search the waiver wire. My Conclusion: The only way I see Rodgers staying a Packer. Is to keep the OL intact. So I'm looking at ways to keep Linsley now.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 18, 2021 at 02:17 pm

Then bag a veteran free agent CB. I would Franchise Linsley and play the one-year option route if they cannot come to terms on a new deal. With Bhaktiari likely missing a good part of the year, stability up front matters.

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psu8284's picture

February 17, 2021 at 11:41 am

I agree on the JJ Watt hype. It is romantic to think about, but I really concerned about his age and availability for the price he will command. The best ability is availability and JJ has not been that available over the last couple years. Frankly, would rather see another year of Lowery. I would also rather see the resign of Linsley so they can keep mauling people in the run game. I would rather see finding away to keep Williams so they have quality depth guaranteed at RB for the mauling run game. I would rather see them invest in Richard Sherman at CB before Watt to provide experience and depth at corner. I would rather see them spend money on a tackle because Bhaktiari probably won't be back for the majority of the beginning of the season. Net point, while the Watt move is romantic, I have a lot of "I'd rathers" I would rather see.

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psu8284's picture

February 17, 2021 at 11:42 am

I agree on the JJ Watt hype. It is romantic to think about, but I really concerned about his age and availability for the price he will command. The best ability is availability and JJ has not been that available over the last couple years. Frankly, would rather see another year of Lowery. I would also rather see the resign of Linsley so they can keep mauling people in the run game. I would rather see finding away to keep Williams so they have quality depth guaranteed at RB for the mauling run game. I would rather see them invest in Richard Sherman at CB before Watt to provide experience and depth at corner. I would rather see them spend money on a tackle because Bhaktiari probably won't be back for the majority of the beginning of the season. Net point, while the Watt move is romantic, I have a lot of "I'd rathers" I would rather see.

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PeteK's picture

February 17, 2021 at 01:45 pm

In my opinion, our O line is more finesse ,that's why they are an excellent pass protecting group. However, I greatly enjoyed watching Patrick maul Susan a few times in the championship game.

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dobber's picture

February 17, 2021 at 12:41 pm

Interesting...

jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2021/02/17/green-bay-packers-j-j-watt-dropping-hint-his-destination/6781600002/

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Gee's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:10 pm

The link not working for me, was this when he said, he like the way the Browns were constructed? Yeah not sure if he's driving up his price, but yeah if anyone can throw money at him, and give him a shot at S.B, its the Browns.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:24 pm

Part of me would be disappointed for us, if Watt doesn't join us, but I have to be happy for Cleveland. The NFL is more fun now that the Browns are good again.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 18, 2021 at 03:10 am

A smart poster on another site noted that Watt is going to convince himself that Cleveland or failing Cleveland, then Miami, are Super Bowl contenders.

But he's a cynical guy who thinks dollars will decide the destination.

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Tabin's picture

February 17, 2021 at 12:54 pm

OL
LT Turner
LG Runyan or Taylor
C Jenkins
RG Patrick or Stephaniak or Taylor
RT Wagner

JJ ican be done if the Packers can come around with a creative cap solution and both sides compromise. If the Packers sign JJ then go for a CB or SS in the first round. If no JJ then go for a DT and try to get a cornerback on FA, one that can play man. I like Conley, he won´t be expensive, the bad thing is his injury history.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:23 pm

Is Center such an important position that we need to move our second best OL there? I'd prefer Jenkins stay our LG, personally

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flackcatcher's picture

February 17, 2021 at 03:55 pm

Yes. Makes the offensive line calls, can reset checks depending on defensive sets. Not an accident that Jenkins was moved to center, as smart a player as one will see in the league.

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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2021 at 05:47 pm

Center is often the least impressive athlete but the position that requires most general and football smarts. I’m not sure it’s the best use of an athlete like Jenkins is at C. The more limited Patrick may be a better permanent option. I guess we will see.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:45 pm

Center can be had in the second or third round.

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pacman's picture

February 17, 2021 at 12:55 pm

Ok, I'm finally feeling a little less depressed about the loss to TB. 1/2 LOL.

RB - big unknown but all hope is in Dillon
CB - in this strange year, I'm think King is back on a 1 yr deal at a good price.
OL - got to get a big guy
D - might not be a big need
WR - has MVS turned the corner?

So who do we draft in round 1? looks like it might be another QB to me cuz barring injury, AR made sure Love will never see the field in GB.

Nothing to talk about until draft or deals start happening.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:22 pm

It's all up in the air at this point, pacman, especially with the cap numer being uncertain. Don't lose hope though, we're winning LVI!

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flackcatcher's picture

February 17, 2021 at 04:50 pm

Keep hope alive...

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pacman's picture

February 17, 2021 at 05:27 pm

I'm not losing hope. We are starting out better than this time last year. But these stupid mistakes keeping us from the SB is getting to the infamous stage. I'm getting quite tired of the team not being prepared, not having the killer instinct, not just getting it done. I hate to say but that's probably what makes Brady the GOAT. I'm guessing that players on his team don't dare mess up more due to him than the coach. (I did say that I was a little LESS depressed about losing to TB - not "NOT" depressed - LOL!)

GPG!

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wildbill's picture

February 17, 2021 at 01:36 pm

I would say a big no on Sherman. He is old, would probably want some serious money, and from what I’ve read he only plays well in cover 3. We don’t know what our defense will look like, probably a lot like the Rams, so not sure if cover 3 will be utilized.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:21 pm

we don't need a super star at both corners. If he came for less for another Super Bowl run, I'd be happy to have him, even if it meant adding another CB for depth. Seems like we can never have enough good CBs in this era

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 17, 2021 at 06:49 pm

They will need to draft two, at minimum. The so-called depth are all whiffs.

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kbrinkmann's picture

February 17, 2021 at 02:17 pm

Poll works now! Thanks again for the help, Al.

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flackcatcher's picture

February 17, 2021 at 04:32 pm

JJ would be nice, but who knows. I'm more interested in what the Packers do beyond this season. For this season the die is cast, with most of this roster already set. A little luck, and the Packers could make another run for the Superbowl. Even with the Cap bounce (if it happens) the Packers will have too many core players due to cover. How Gute and Russ Ball take on Cap Man will determine the Packers future for at least the next decade.

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MarkinMadison's picture

February 17, 2021 at 07:34 pm

Best five is the mantra. I don't know who the center is going to be because I don't know who the best five players are right now, let alone in August. If I have to guess, I'd say it involves Runyan, which might push Jenkins to center. Jenkins at center is not a waste. He can easily provide help to either side. He's smart. He tough. He knows his tech. He can do anything except LT.

There are more possibilities to create money than I expected, but the Packers would be going all-in and facing a future drought that might last years. Look at the Saints - they are hamstrung for the next three years. And it didn't even work. I don't see them going all-in to that degree.

JJ Watt? I don't know. I'm not against it. It wouldn't hurt. Will the price be right? I don't know that you should break the bank for him.

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Eli4665's picture

February 18, 2021 at 02:11 am

great work.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 18, 2021 at 05:00 am

The cap is interesting. It depends on whether Gute is willing to go "all-in" on these players. The Book of Mark double-counted Bakh and assumes a $180M cap number. OTC has GB at -$19.89M after converting Bakh's roster bonus to a signing bonus. I see no money for draft picks, 52nd and 53rd contracts, PS, operating cushion for the year, or for signing RFAs.

RESTRUCTURES: $18M not $26.3M even using their numbers.
AR: Getting $15M in savings can't be done without adding a year to the contract or getting AR to play for less cash in 2021 (which could be added back in during a later season). I got $11.3M and could have gotten $13.3M just moving money around but not changing how much cash AR gets each year.

Turner: Ditto. Can get $2.59M by moving money around. More requires Turner to play for less cash in 2021 or an extension. TBOM got $3M, and I took $1.5M in my article.

EXTENDED: $26.4M. Yeah, I don't think so. Maybe I could go to $10M.

Adams ($9.3M). Good luck with that. I got $6.11M so $3.2M less.

Z. Smith ($12.4M). This is a major leap/major bet. It likely means adding 3 years to his deal (he'd be 32 in 2025) and giving him $17.5M as a signing bonus in 2021 rather than as salary. Do you want to do that? I took $2.5M in cap savings but noted more could be done. Just about $10M apart in our respective thinking.

Amos ($4.7M): This likely requires adding two years to Adrian's contract. He would be 31 during his last season. Possible. It isn't that old for a SS. He'd have a $12.5M cap number for 2022, but it would probably be more because this approach isn't increasing the AAV or these players. I took $1.5M using a more conservative approach, so I'm about $3.2M less, but I'd consider doing more than $1.5M with his deal.

Consider whether the player would agree to an extension. Would Amos prefer 2 more years or would he like to get one last 4-year deal when his is 29 in March of 2023 (he'd be 30 in April) that gives him a signing bonus with new money? Ditto for Z. Smith.

CUTS: Adds up to $22.5, not $22.9. Figures a little off: really $22.42M. It's about even with mine.
Could get $5.5M more actually with June 1 designations on Preston and Lowry. I would keep Wagner, and Funchess would be a decision made in August/September. I only get $1.1M less keeping Wagner and Funchess (for now).

Note that these cap savings for 2021 noted by The Book of Mark would have just a vet. min. base salary and a signing bonus proration. The numbers for Workout and Game Active bonuses would be $0.00. I can get to about $50M in cap savings - $19.89M =$30.1M, minus roughly $10M for Draft/52nd/53rd/PS/Cushion leaves $20.1M. GB wants some of Tonyan, Sullivan, Boyle, and Lancaster back, though the latter two (or three?) don't get tendered. Probably looking at $6M to $9M of the $20.1M here.

GB might bring back Greene, Redmond, M. Adams, Lane Taylor, if only because they should return on qualified contracts. Still have Aaron Jones, Linsley, Jamaal, Marcedes, Ervin/Austin, out there and the need for a starting #2 CB and DL help (Watt?).

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CheesyTex's picture

February 18, 2021 at 12:45 pm

Thanks, TGR. Very helpful.

It's definitely time for Russ Ball to shine- the Packers face an unprecedented kind of Cap challenge due to COVID, but my hope is that he proves his mettle with creative solutions.

The Packers turn-around over the last two seasons has exceeded expectations (at least my expectations), so I'm looking for good Cap decisions that allow the momentum to continue for years to come.

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flackcatcher's picture

February 18, 2021 at 03:53 pm

Good Lord that's depressing. Rodgers is a millstone around the teams neck Cap wise. And clearing for the draft, ugh this is going to hurt. Thanks TGR.

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