Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - Offseason 4-8-20

The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.

So how is everyone doing out there? Things are not great here in NJ. If Covid-19 is not a big problem where you live right now, PLEASE don't take the distancing or work from home rules lightly. Those measures are working here as the number of new cases have started to level off. That won't prevent more deaths this week from the already critically sick, but it will save a lot of lives going forward. 

Now to football, one of the ways we escape from life's more serious realities.

Draft a QB - NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah released his latest mock draft yesterday where he had the Packers taking Utah State QB Jordan Love with their first round pick. While I'm in favor of GB drafting a QB this year, I have to admit, I would not be happy with them using a first round pick to do so. Rodgers is under contract for four more seasons, at which point he would be 39 years old. I'm likely in the minority of people who think he could play another couple of years beyond that. I'm also Ilkely in an even smaller group of people who think he can still be playing at a high enough level to win a Super Bowl as he approaches forty. 

Trade Back - If the Packers find themselves on the clock with 3-4 players they have assigned first round values to still available, I love the idea of a small trade back. Maggie Loney came up with a doozy in her post last week:

The Packers trade the #30 pick to Indianapolis in exchange for their 2nd round pick (#34), their 4th round pick (#122) and their 6th round pick (#197).  I like this so much, I'd be willing to agree to it right now, without knowing who will be there at #34. 

Tight Ends - Who's your starter? Sternberger? Tonyan? Lewis? Does it matter? Sure it would be great to have a proven TE target for Rodgers, but how did that work out with Jimmy Graham? (Pick your adjective) LaFleur will make good use of all three, and there's a good chance that Jace Sternberger emerges as an above-average NFL tight end. He was Texas A&M's offensive MVP, and after coming off injured reserve, he looked darn good doing what was supposedly his weakness, run blocking - and from a fullback alignment to boot! Overall, I was most impressed by how fluid he looked on the move as a lead blocker and the crispness of his route-running. Aaron Nagler interviewed Jace on his Nagler's Never Right podcast (available to Patreon members), and it was great to hear how Jace looked at his time on injured reserve as an opportunity to learn all aspects of the offense, including somethings foreign to him that he might be asked to do - such as fill in for an injured fullback! Jace made good use of his time and was ready when called upon. With that attitude, his future is bright.

Clay Matthews III - A lot has been made of CM3 being "snubbed" and not making the NFL's All-decade team of the 2010s - including a not-so-subtle tweet from Clay himself.

 

 

Of the LBs that were named, who would you replace with Matthews? Here are the names.

Chandler Jones - 96 sacks in 116 games? Incredibly consistent.

Luke Kuechly - best ILB of the decade.

Von Miller - a unanimous selection - no argument there. 

Bobby Wagner - second best ILB of the decade.

Patrick Willis - While Willis is worthy, he only played five years in the 2010s, and his last season was cut short to only six games. Not enough data. 

Khalil Mack - with only six years in the league and a definite production drop-off his last two seasons in Chicago, this choice is questionable.

For my money, I kick Mack off and replace him with Matthews. Agree?

__________________________

"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther.  

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Comments (80)

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Razer's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:43 am

Thanks Al for the words of warning and encouragement. Up close and personal, this disease is nasty. If you get a chance, listen to Tony Boselli's recount to Rich Eisen. You can search for it on Twitter.

Like a lighthouse, you shine a beacon of sense to this crazy off-season. Totally agree on the high round QB. We are on the last miles in this race with Rodgers. Let's get him and this team what they need to make these years the best they can possibly be. I do think we need to invest in a talent that can carry us in case of injury. Where we can acquire this talent - I don't know.

TE - Jace is our man, Tonyan gets another year and Mercedes Lewis will continue to push people out of the way. Let's just stop talking about TE's. We haven't had a stud TE in near 20 years and the offense has been potent. A true slot WR is a much bigger need. Bottom-line - get better weapons for Rodgers and design the playcalling to highlight the talent.

Love the trade down. After the top 15-20, we are into a large group of 2 rounders. I saw a trade back with the Texans that yielded us 2 second rounders for a 1st and 4th. Either way, there will be some very good DL, OL, WR and CB talent in rounds 2 and 3.

a) All decade team - who cares. Clay Matthews snubbed - see a)

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Coldworld's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:39 am

Don’t get to be a stud without playing and don’t become a good team without draft picks coming through. Given the cap position, this is, and must be, Sternberger’s year to establish himself. The signing of Funchess should help by providing a player who can also contribute in part of the area occupied by Graham.

I agree with Al on the QB, if one drops to us in the first, I am all in for trading back. This team still has holes that need a skill influx most likely to come from early picks. Opportunity cost is too high unless no one will trade and he is also clearly the BPA in our board by a distance. I don’t think that a Rodgers situation is likely or that a Rodgers type exists in this draft to start off with. If we take a QB at all now it’s a development project later I hope. If they really like Boyle, I wouldn’t necessarily draft a QB at all this year. Not convinced personally, but the team may be.

Need more at ILB/hybrid and DL. No depth whatsoever at the former that can credibly be expected to start and we need to improve stoutness in the middle, probably in later rounds.

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packerbackerjim's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:40 am

I agree with the trade back with Indy with this caveat: unless Jefferson, Queen or Murray are there at 30. I’m all in on those guys. CM3 does belong in the decade’s best list.

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mrtundra's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:38 am

If Queen, Murray or Jefferson are all gone by the time #30 rolls around, I think I'd go for a BPA at IDL with that pick. Give Kenny Clark some help in the middle and stop the run, as well.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 08, 2020 at 06:13 pm

Who is that guy? Brown and Kinlaw are the top two in the first rd. Raekwon Davis has been up and down the draft charts. Get a D lineman in the third round or fourth.

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MarkinMadison's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:47 am

Waaayy too early to spend a first round pick on a second round QB talent.

Given the Packers' budget and players hitting FA next year, I think we all just have to hope Jace pans out. I like what little we saw of him last year. If the Packers pick more WRs in the mold of Lazard they may be able to achieve the same results anyway.

I'd put Matthews ahead of Willis for sure, probably Mack as well. Mack is a closer call. Durability made CM3 a bit of a roller-coaster ride. Always blowing his hammies.

My daughter is an nurse at UW hospitals. She has volunteered for ICU duty. She has been given one mask (not an N95) and been told to use if for the duration. I worked the polls at the election yesterday. Had a great chat with the National Guard member who was assigned to work with us. I went to basic at Ft. Leonardwood in 1990. I have strong feelings about this person right now: https://www.axios.com/wisconsin-republican-speaker-election-coronavirus-...

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Bure9620's picture

April 08, 2020 at 09:16 pm

N95s are all on allocation, the current stock in the US will run out by early May at the current rate. Wuhan is now open and the factories are slowly opening. The hope is that supply chain is back in a month.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 08, 2020 at 11:02 pm

Move 3Ms manf. plants back to Minnesota and carry a real inventory. They claim the S.Dakota plant will punch out 33M per month which is a smaller % of the output for the outsourced plant in Shanghai. 3M claims they will punch Worldwide production to 100M units /month with product moving to affected Countries, not solely to the U.S. market. Serious supply issues for Strategic Defense mentioned for decades by Intelligence and Public Health sectors now being exposed by this pathogen.

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Bure9620's picture

April 09, 2020 at 03:53 pm

3M has less than we do........

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stockholder's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:52 am

Agree on CM3. Agree on the TEs. Disagree on a QB. Prefer a veteran. Disagree on the Trade. Let me tell you why. I'm drooling over the Wrs. But my mind says; these LBs we have will never get better. When was the last time we had a ILB run in the 4.5s? I understand Murray and Queen have their flaws. But the problem with the Lbs has been speed. TT took King ignoring TJ Watt and the kid from Alabama. Do you really trust Burks and Bolton? You've even been critical of King. And it seems we haven't stopped drafting the secondary. We just can't wait any longer. This Defense needs more at ILB. Ignoring it will result in a failing defense.

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JerseyAl's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:19 am

your "hope" draft matches mine exactly.

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Coldworld's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:55 am

I think we don’t just need an ILB, we need a hybrid type as well. Pettine’s system requires cover backers and Greene types.

Bolton and Burks should not be counted out but must not be counted upon. Can Greene stay healthy? Even if he can, we need to be able to have him out there with 2 ILBs to increase flexibility. At the moment we have one ILB and one hybrid coming off seasons ruined by injuries. That is simply farcical.

I want a fast receiver who projects to the perimeter early, but I want an ILB and a hybrid just as much. The only variance would be a real prospect at OT. Since I don’t see a true run stuffer DL who can penetrate getting close to us, I think IDL comes later and will be a 2 down run specialist. Important but not an early round type. After that I want a traditional slot type receiver.

Ideally WR/ILB/OT/hybrid in the first 4 rounds followed by WR/IDL/RB

That is 7 picks. Obviously, things don’t work that way, but that is my take on the mix. The remaining late picks may include an edge cover type and a corner, but I’d be happy to BPA at that point if we had ticked the above boxes.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 08, 2020 at 04:39 pm

You were pushing Wilson, last post so he should be free in the late 2nd to third. I am still a fan of Baun because he knows how to move in space and attack the LOS. I want a DE/DT in the third to allow Clark more flexibility on the D line.

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stockholder's picture

April 08, 2020 at 06:02 pm

I would not draft Baun. I don't like the way he gets off blocks. To much like Ryan. They will met with Fotu. Expect Fotu in the 3rd . .

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CoachDino's picture

April 08, 2020 at 06:20 pm

Oren Burks ran a 4.59 at the combine.
Murray and Queen scare me but would probably grab either one at 30. Murray does not shed blocks well and has zero man coverage skills mainly due to how he was used. That's a big learning curve for a guy we want to be effective in coverage. Queen is just small but you can't pass on the production.

On Clay, does run defense count? He was pathetic on the edge the last 3-4 years for the pack. Sacks are the most important aspect no doubt, so maybe its not a game breaker. Just throwing that out there.

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stockholder's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:29 pm

Burks was considered to be a Joe Thomas clone. He was the wrong trade up. Albert Okwuegbunam TE burned him. Murray and Queen wouldn't be rated 1st rd. if there were problems. They would drop. Any Rookie will have trouble off blocks. The Set Back is they will have to choose a Wr rd 2. Instead of a DT like Justin Madubuike. And Gutey may miss Fotu selecting either, Wilson, Brooks or dye. CM3 didn't have anybody like the Smiths to help him. He was being disruptive, nothing more. He played well last year, but Injuries are a concern now.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:30 pm

Vote neither LB, run and chase guys. Harrison or Wilson, Gay, Barnes can come in later rounds.

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HankScorpio's picture

April 09, 2020 at 05:17 am

"When was the last time we had a ILB run in the 4.5s? "

2019. Oren Burks ran 4.59 and Ty Summers ran 4.51. Pettine never used either of them. Maybe that will change now that his favorite ILB is getting over-paid in New York.

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Coldworld's picture

April 09, 2020 at 07:30 am

Burks has hardly been able to get on the field and didn’t look fully back sufficient to warrant defensive time when he did. Summers was a 7th rounder with considerable athleticism. He was there in the 7th because he is a raw as hell prospect.

Can’t go into the season assuming either is active for other than special teams. Have to draft on the assumption that at least one will not be available or ready if he is. That would be your depth number with a draft pick.

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Guam's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:58 am

Interesting that we have come full circle on Rodgers and are now discussing doing to him what the Packers did to Favre - drafting a replacement QB early instead of more weapons for a SB push in his final years. Despite how well that worked out for the Packers last time, I don't love the idea. My concern is what if Jordan Love doesn't work out - you don't have either a SB win or a replacement QB. I would rather load up for a final push with Rodgers.

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PeteK's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:20 am

A high QB prospect dropping that low doesn't happen that often. Scenario--if Tua drops to 30 do we draft him?

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JerseyAl's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:23 am

I think the days of QBs dropping like that are pretty much over. QBs are everything now. Teams take more risks now on QBs.

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dobber's picture

April 08, 2020 at 01:26 pm

Lamar Jackson in 2018? Although, admittedly, part of why he dropped was the question of what position he would play in the NFL...but it shows you that there are reasons why good players will fall.

Drew Lock is getting his chance to start in Denver. He had his moments in 2019.

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marpag1's picture

April 10, 2020 at 02:41 am

I get your point dobber, and I think you're right. My only point here is that I get a very different feeling when I compare ARod's slide with Lamar's. It doesn't quite seem 'apples with apples.' Only Alex Smith was off the board when ARod was sliding down, and unless you really want to count Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick - taken 250th in the 7th round - there were ZERO quarterbacks of note in the 2005 class other than ARod. You would think that the laws of supply and demand would motivate someone to take a shot on Rodgers, yet all of those teams passed on him.

Four very highly regarded QBs were off the board before Lamar. Counting Lamar, five QBs are the most that have ever gone in the first round in NFL history except for 1983 which had six... and three of those six are in the HOF (Elway, Marino, Kelly).

None of this sets aside anything you said. And I think you're right that teams were (and still are) worried about drafting a "running quarterback" in a passing league. I think Lamar is the most exciting young player in the NFL. But even I am a little concerned that we might be looking at the next Mike Vick... guys who are mind-bendingly good when they have youthful and uninjured legs, but just don't seem to last the rigors of the NFL.

There's a really good chance that the teams who took Mayfield, Darnold, Allen and Rosen are going to feel stupid for their selections. But at least they were taking QBs.... even if they were not the right one.

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mrtundra's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:34 am

In a recent mock on Draft Network, Tua did drop to the Packers at #30 Yes, I took him.

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Guam's picture

April 09, 2020 at 07:56 am

Tua is a different story than Love, but I suspect we could also trade the opportunity to draft Tua to another team for lots of additional draft choices. Still not sure I would draft Tua or take a bunch of draft choices as this team has holes to fill.

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MarkinMadison's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:24 am

I think you're forgetting Favre's whole annual drama queen presentation of, "Oh, When Will I Retire, Me Thinketh Sooner than Later." It would have been malpractice for TT NOT to draft his replacement.

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PeteK's picture

April 08, 2020 at 10:01 am

I think it was more of a case of Rogers dropping to them because Rogers didn't start until the 4th year of his career.

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dobber's picture

April 08, 2020 at 01:06 pm

They still needed to pull the trigger, and if ARod is starting to wear out his welcome (or if it's starting to look like the contract and the production aren't close enough anymore) I'd like to hope that BG will make the right call.

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Guam's picture

April 09, 2020 at 08:13 am

Fully aware of Favre's drama, but that doesn't invalidate my point that most fans disagreed with the selection of Rodgers at the time because they wanted more weapons for Favre. Hindsight has proven TT was right. I don't believe Rodgers will pull the same drama stunt as Favre, but he is so competitive that he may want to play longer than he should or is able to. Which could put the Packers in essentially the same position with Rodgers as they were with Favre.

I feel it is premature to draft Rodgers' replacement this year, but I also believe we will be wrestling with this question for the next several years.

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NickPerry's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:08 am

If your sitting at 30 and a trade back to 34 with 3 players you like are still on the board, I suppose that's okay. The main reason I'd rather keep my 1st round selection is the extra year on the contract (5th year club option for 1st rounders) opposed to just a 4 year deal. The extra 4th is nice but at the end of the day if you hit a home run, you have that 5th year at a reasonable price.

My hope is the Packers take a WR at 30, a RT at 62, and a ILB or DL at 94. If the Packers went D-Line at 62 and RT at 94 that would be okay too.

There was a scenario out there where the Packers traded a 4th round pick in 2020 and a conditional 2021 pick for Brandon Cooks. The tricky part with this is the medical. Cooks has had 5 concussions, 2 last season so it's an obvious gamble. BUT the Packers could take on his contract with a little shuffling.

Cooks is exactly the WR the Packers don't have and need. He can fly, runs great routes, runs great DEEP routes, and immediately upgrades the Packers WR room. Starting the season with Adams, Cooks, Funchess, Lazard, EQ, and Sternberger at TE for example would be a hell of a corps.

A trade for Cooks also allows the Packers to maybe focus on the D-Line, O-line, and ILB early. Just a thought so don't freak out on me guys! LOL.

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Coldworld's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:35 am

Cooks would be a great luxury signing, but that’s not the position that we are in, cap wise or in terms of roster. He has the skills but, if the concussion position is as stated widely, he is a player who physically can’t be relied on. He is the type of player who could never see a down. Only basis would be minimum with big incentives, but he isn’t available for that even if I would want us to deal with the cap ramifications.

We would have to draft assuming unavailability. So no increase in flexibility. Not one we should look at despite his ability.

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CheesyTex's picture

April 08, 2020 at 10:50 am

Or maybe an affordable Taylor Gabriel?

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mrtundra's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:30 am

Since Mack is a Chicago Bear, booting him is a no brainer! Stay safe in Jersey, Al!

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PeteK's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:44 am

A trade down could get us Reagor, Niang, Malik Harrison, Fotu. That alone would be a great haul. Mathews could easily be the best defensive player we ever had. He could rush from the outside, inside, intercept a pass in coverage , excellent against the run, and even play ILB. His strip fumble tackle in the SB of 2010 brought home the championship because Pitt was driving and had momentum.

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Since'61's picture

April 08, 2020 at 09:15 am

Matthews could be the best defensive player we ever had but that would clearly mean that you never watched Ray Nitschke, Dave Robinson, Herb Adderly, Reggie White, Willie Davis and numerous other Packers play defense. Stay well. Thanks, Since ‘61

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PeteK's picture

April 08, 2020 at 10:28 am

I saw them all, since 66. As great as they all were, non were as versatile as Matthews--519 TKLs, 91 SKs, 43 passes def ,6 ints, 17 FF, 130 tkls for loss. Just my opinion .

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Demon's picture

April 08, 2020 at 03:41 pm

Wow, that is the first time ive ever seen someone say that CM3 was a better player than Reggie White.

If that is "just your opinion" i suggest that you go back and rewatch a few games. Obviously you are not thinking correctly or have comprehension difficulties.

Reggie White very well may have been the BEST defensive player ever. Certainly the most dominating defensive player ive ever witnessed. Arguements can be made about LT and a very few select others. CM3 is not one of them!

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wildbill's picture

April 08, 2020 at 08:51 pm

They didn’t keep track of tackles and sacks back in the sixties so why are you using stats as your basis? Not knocking Clay, as I think the world of him, but I watched Ol 66 dominate and he covered in the passing game. Jim Brown never gained 100 yards against Lombardi’s Packers and his last career play is a title game where Ray covered him like a blanket in the endzone and knocked the pass away. Just saying

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 08, 2020 at 10:47 pm

Different times, different rules, there is a hierarchy of great Outside LBs in Packerland: Dave Robinson, Fred Carr, Tony Bennett, Ted Hendricks, Tim Harris, ClayIII, KGB, Wayne Simmons could enforce the Edge. Ray Nitschke could move inside/out if had to. He was a FB at Illinois and a great athlete.

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Handsback's picture

April 08, 2020 at 11:20 am

I like the draft haul if it came to pass.
I disagree with CMIII. One name everyone forgets...Fred Carr!

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HankScorpio's picture

April 09, 2020 at 05:23 am

"A trade down could get us...Niang..."

Niang is an interesting case. I've read he was headed for the 1st round before his injury. But with Covid wiping out much of the pre-draft process, the inability to perform due diligence on his medicals make him a risk. I'll be really curious to see where he actually goes on draft day(s).

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taarons420's picture

April 08, 2020 at 09:23 am

Drafting a QB:
1 - Rodgers had his chances... and came up short. Eventually the team needs to recognize that it's not gonna happen... he's done.
2 - To win a SB w/ Rodgers the rest of the team would have to be stacked. To win a SB w/ a new/young QB the rest of the team would have to be stacked. It's easier to "stack" a roster paying a rookie QB than it is while paying an old QB a bajjillion $'s.
3 - If you're not going to draft a QB super early... then don't draft one at all. Very few later round QB's amount to anything (yes - there are exceptions, but they are few and far between).
4 - Molding a young QB to run Lafleur's offense will be easier than convincing a stubborn old QB to run his new, young coach's offense.
5 - Most important position in sports. If a starting level QB falls to you... you draft him every single time.

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dobber's picture

April 08, 2020 at 11:21 am

I think we agree in that, if that guy BG thinks will be a difference-making NFL QB ends up in his lap at 30--and nobody is calling to make a deal--you have to pick that player. The Packers actually SAVE money--about $5M on the cap--if they cut ARod next off-season. That only happens if they draft a QB this year and are convinced that guy can play. Training a draftee will always go smoother than adjusting vets. ARod has shown stretches where he's been willing to be that LaF system QB, but it hasn't lasted.

The bottom line is that realistically the Packers are two years away from it being cap-feasible to cut or trade ARod. Unless a safe falls on QB1 "Wile E Coyote-style" and he's unable to play, BG has to find a way to put this roster in the best position to be successful with #12 calling the shots. I think that right now he's trying to balance present and future with this team. He hasn't gone all-in on the present, but he hasn't shit-canned it to finish his rebuid faster, either.

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Johnblood27's picture

April 08, 2020 at 12:03 pm

2 cookies - one for Wile E Coyote style safe dropping and one for use of shit-canned.

1 cookie taken away for making a case for using pick 30 on a QB.

Total = 1 cookie in your favor!

Congratulations!

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dobber's picture

April 08, 2020 at 01:10 pm

Sometimes you need to s#!t0-can a cookie to make a cookie... ;)

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Gort's picture

April 08, 2020 at 12:32 pm

The Looney reference is pure Genius.
What's up Doc?

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taarons420's picture

April 08, 2020 at 12:50 pm

Rodgers' contract is holding the team back.
It wasn't necessary.
Had a year left.
Could have thrown the franchise tag on him for 2 more.
This upcoming season would have been his last.
Love is the perfect QB for LaFluer's offense.

What could have been.

It's Rodgers vs LaFluer.
System vs hero ball.

Every time you see 3 or more WR's on the field - you know Rodgers is winning.
Every time you see 12 audible to a pass on 2nd or 3rd and 1 - you know Rodgers is winning.
Every time you see Rodgers pass up the slant to the middle of the field for a deep shot on the outside (after dancing in pocket for 5+ seconds - you know Rodgers is winning.
Every time you see Aaron walks to the bench with his back turned to LaFluer while LaFluer is trying to talk to him - you know Rodgers is winning.

Right now - Rodgers is winning.

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dobber's picture

April 08, 2020 at 01:21 pm

"Every time you see 3 or more WR's on the field - you know Rodgers is winning."

11 personnel is by far the most-run player grouping in the league, and the Packers ran a lot of 2 TE sets (relative to the McCarthy years) in 2019. The Packers were actually below league average in the number of times they trotted out 11 personnel in 2019, and that includes run and pass calls. The Packers were markedly above league average in percentage of plays with 12 and 21 personnel.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

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taarons420's picture

April 08, 2020 at 01:36 pm

Good.
No reason to go hunting for little slot receivers.
Keep getting bigger, stronger, more physical.

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Coldworld's picture

April 09, 2020 at 07:35 am

Variety is the spice of life.

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HankScorpio's picture

April 09, 2020 at 05:11 am

"It's Rodgers vs LaFluer.
System vs hero ball."

When I see armchair psychology like this, I tend to discount everything else being said. It is hard to crawl into someone's head if you interact with them often. Doing so from a distance is nearly impossible.

I just don't buy into the theory that such tension could exist between a rookie HC and veteran QB on a team that over-achieved in W/L by such a large amount. That over-achievement was predicated on cohesion and unity. If that tension existed, the rest of the team would have picked up on it and taken sides.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 09, 2020 at 04:44 am

If Tua or Love falls to #30, I'd be on board taking him. AR can be traded in 2021 before his March roster bonus is due to clear $4.7M in cap space. That's not a lot of cap space, not enough to the stack the team, but GB should get some high picks still for AR, and they might well help early. If GB can't get a couple of high picks for AR, that means that AR will probably have declined, in which case a new QB makes sense anyway. There probably is a murky middle in that scenario.

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JerseyAl's picture

April 09, 2020 at 07:58 am

"he's done" Didn't need to read any more of this ridiculousness.

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Since'61's picture

April 08, 2020 at 09:24 am

Al- I live in NJ as well, plus my wife is immune compromised , so we are pretty much dug in here. Hopefully we are reaching a point where the infections are beginning to slow.

As for the Packers, I would hope that the Packers take a WR at 30 or trade down as suggested. Given CM3s decline since the 2014 season I can understand why he was left off the all- decade team. He also missed significant parts of seasons due to injuries.

I’m fine with seeing how Sternberger develops this season, if we actually have a season.

To Al and everyone, stay strong and stay well. Thanks, Since ‘61

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Tarynfor12's picture

April 08, 2020 at 10:12 am

The FO, I believe, has restructured Rodgers contract twice to clear money and our salary cap is in near despair. Doing such should equate to not drafting a QB but to being able to stack, fortify and secure positions that are lacking to increase the possibility of winning the SB. This team, unless one chooses to be blinded by the overly optimistic, has not performed such but has in effect made it more visible the ills of the team and the depth of those ills.

These ills will be more visible next season with priority players needed to be resigned or allowed to walk away and the team is not set up to accommodate that scenario and drafting a QB this season doesn't address that but hinders it, by using valuable salary cap money on a player that will have no contribution ability unless Rodgers goes down and that pulls the plug on any chance of an SB appearance, and we all know it.

We don't know the path Gute will go in the draft, but we know where he can't go in FA this season and likely next, other than the bargain-basement pile of useless furniture and has been's which do one thing only, feed the blind optimist the usual and watch them salivate on each other trying to convince themselves they were good moves and better than they were players by becoming Packers.

My expectations for this team this season are low, like 5-6 win maximum low and I will take the under total immediately when posted at the Sports Books. I do not see the luck that crossed their path last season to happen again. To those who believe in the 'As Long As We Have Rodgers' mantra, it isn't enough and it doesn't appear we'll get enough this season and the jump that some hope for from some players, how has that actually panned out in the past. More no than yes.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 08, 2020 at 04:54 pm

The Turner deal has hamstrung the CAP a bit. See how he performs this season, if play does resume.

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PeteK's picture

April 08, 2020 at 10:45 am

I would bet my life on one thing, Taryn not being (forget overly) optimistic and never ever letting even the foam spill over in her glass. LOL As I mentioned on other threads , is it true that we have 11.7 in cap space while keeping Taylor. If that's the case we will be in good position to sign our draft pks, in season free agents, and future free agents.

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Tarynfor12's picture

April 08, 2020 at 11:13 am

You would lose that bet. I started last season very optimistic about the Packers and bet them to win more than 9 games. As the season progressed and even as the wins came, I couldn't ignore the poor play that was witnessed near weekly and the wins coming from the bad luck that befell opponents, and the reality of the teams ills erased that optimism. Was I happy they made the playoffs, yes, but we all knew it (luck) wouldn't appear against the team that showed us how lucky we were all season, SF, and they quickly showed us again in the NFCCG that we didn't belong with the low talent but got there because of the near perfect storm of luck from other teams fails. It won't happen again, especially this season if there is one.

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Coldworld's picture

April 09, 2020 at 08:05 am

I do not recall anything I recognized as optimism from you about last season.

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Tarynfor12's picture

April 09, 2020 at 10:34 am

Then you apparently didn't go back and read many articles from CHTV from Aug and Sept and early Oct. I really couldn't care if you do or not, I know how I felt then and how and why I bet them to win more than 9 games where many here where thinking 7-8.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 09, 2020 at 04:15 am

It isn't bad, but $11.7M ( I believe it is $10.9M or so) is not enough to pick up a quality veteran at cutdowns. A guy like Ahmad Brooks who cost $3.5M is out of the question.

2021 looks pretty grim.

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Handsback's picture

April 08, 2020 at 11:13 am

My wife and I are retired and live in a North Texas county that has a population of over a million people. We have had 4 deaths, that were associated with the virus. One was a lady of 93 and died of heart issues, but was tested positive for COVID-19 so she is still counted as a casualty to the Corona Virus. Our county is sheltered in place and spirits are high but most of the people seem to be worried if their jobs will come back. So stay safe everyone. My grandfather used to say if you have your health you have everything. As a kid, didn't mean much. Now I completely understand what he meant.

Now a huge thanks to Jersey Al for keeping his column going for us.

So QB for the Pack in the first round is what an NFL desk jockey has selected. I'll just say not impressed.
First off I can't help but wonder if he did any research on how Rodgers got to the Packers in the first place. Also, if he did...does he realize that the situation is so totally different then the Favre replacement theory? Let's review, Favre as early as season 2003 was talking about retirement. (I watch the Eagles playoff game on the NFL channel and Chris Collingworth mentioned it a couple times while announcing the game.) Favre stepped up retirement discussion even greater as more time passed. Then when a number one or two best player in the draft , who is a QB, starts to drop and lands in TT's lap, he still wanted to trade out but couldn't find a partner so he took Rodgers.
Compare the number 1 or 2 player in the draft with a player with a mid 2nd round grade and it just isn't the same situation. BTW, Rodgers still wants to play in Green Bay and has a contract that will take him a few more years.
So my answer is no on QB in the first three rounds. In the 6th take a Cole McDonald or a Montez from CO. Let them work their way to the back-up position and maybe trade material.

CMIII was a pretty good OLB. IMHO, he wasn't/isn't as good as any of those guys listed before him over that period of time. He was great for a few years ( not as many as Willis had) , but slipped in performance and now gets by with great hustle, which he has always had, and instincts.

The TE position will be improved this year as long as Jace stays healthy. I go back and forth on the impact between a good slot receiver verses a good TE. I suspect a slot receiver will be selected in this year's draft and between the slot and TE an uptick of performance will be noticed by the fans.

Trade back if the board still has value. There are 21 players with 1st round grades and 53 players with second round grades. So unless a player drops into the Packer's lap that is a first round value...trade back and get maybe three second round graded players. (This assumes we keep our third round pick and a player drops.)

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 08, 2020 at 01:22 pm

Handsback: Excellent post.

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 08, 2020 at 11:32 am

So how is everyone doing out there?

Considering the situation, doing well. Working from home, helping home school kids. Its different for sure, but we will get through this!

Now to football, one of the ways we escape from life's more serious realities.

Draft a QB -
I think its a year or 2 to soon to draft a QB that high. A lot of people want to compare Rodgers situation now with Favre back when they drafted Rodgers. The difference for one is Favre talked about his decisions on retirement and whatnot. Then in the draft Rodgers who was figured to be the number 1 pick all of a sudden started to drop. None of the QB's they are talking about now are considered to being a top 2 QB in this class. So why take one to take one?

Trade Back -
I typed up my whole comment about trading back to realize that you already had the exact scenerio that I could see them doing. The trade with the Colts.

Tight Ends -
I think we will see some sort of rotation to start the year. Sternberger really was coming on late in the year. Don't be surprised if he improves a lot and becomes the best TE by midseason or sooner. Tonyan is a good player but I woudln't want to rely solely on him. Lewis will keep the same role. Perhaps they go with an extra WR more often. Especially with Lazard, and now adding Funchess. They are bigger WR's that can block.

Clay Matthews III -
This was an all decade team. To me Mathews should have been in it over Mack for the entire decade. Mack wasn't drafted until 2014.
Mathews had 194 tackles, 40 sacks and 9 forced fumbles in the decade before Mack even started playing.

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Coldworld's picture

April 09, 2020 at 08:09 am

I tend to agree with your point on Matthews. One could make a similar one about Willis. At his best Matthews was as good and he lasted longer. If I had to pick players for all 10 years, it’s not close. If I’m asked to pick peak years, maybe.

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scullyitsme's picture

April 08, 2020 at 11:53 am

I’d be ok with trading back, but the Indy scenario doesn’t do much for me. I’d much rather trade a little farther back in the second and pick up another 3rd. 4th and 6th round picks while valuable don’t excite me. 2 2nds and 2 3rds with as deep as this draft is in those rounds would excite me.

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Lphill's picture

April 08, 2020 at 04:36 pm

NYC here survived 911 and I was a first responder, we will beat this, 780 died yesterday in NY God bless them, the only move worth making is to move up for Murray . He may be the only linebacker to make an immediate impact.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 08, 2020 at 01:15 pm

I’ve survived the end of the world about eight times, so this doesn’t bother me much .

Trading down a little bit to get an extra pick in the top 100 would appeal to me.

Rodgers is our QB for two, or three , more years. Unless he wins the Super Bowl we won’t want him when he’s 40. We could certainly use a better backup, but I think the plan is to keep Rodgers healthy by throwing less and throwing quicker, shorter passes. It worked last year and it could work again this year. I don’t see us taking a QB early.

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Bure9620's picture

April 08, 2020 at 01:19 pm

Yes the Northeast is awful, I work for a medical company and things are not rosey, please take the social distancing seriously.

Also, I would be ecstatic if the Packers draft Love. Frankly, I don't think he will be available at 30. I know many do not want him in the first, I believe it would be the future of the organization and also giving Rodgers a good backup capable of winning games. As much as I like Boyle, I really don't want the Timmy Boyle laser show in mid season. Rodgers is an aging player with a history of significant injury and we need to be prepared to play without him sooner than later.

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Lare's picture

April 08, 2020 at 03:17 pm

If they're drafting a QB to get Rodgers possible future replacement, I would say to wait a couple of years. If they're drafting a QB to get Rodgers replacement in case he gets injured sometime in the next few years, then I'm all in favor of it.

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CoachDino's picture

April 08, 2020 at 06:39 pm

PLEASE don't waste a draft pick on a QB. Rodgers will play at least 3 more years and will be better than anyone you are drafting now. That means unless you use your 1st round pick on a guy who won't see the field till at least year 4 you will, at most, get 2 years out of him before he hits FA status. The key at QB is to get one in the 1st round and be starting him by year 2. That gives you 4 years of your QB on a rookie contract. Thats HUGE. It's also how the game goes in the NFl now. The salary cap is a big factor - not just best players when making these decisions.

Boyle is going to be a better back-up for GB then a mid to late rd draft pick so why waste it. Are you going to then carry 3 QBs on your roster?

I am willing to bet Jeremiah, who I respect, will change that pick down the road. That's was just click bait.

Agree on TE - been saying it since day one. That's why they need a CB this year so they will have a replacement for King and don't have to spend big in FA. The Packers money is tied to AR/Baht/Clark/Smiths. Then Jaire/Adams.

If you want to get rid of one of those guys to afford a FA signing then cool, just need to know the ramifications of signing Big $ FAs instead of being a year ahead in the draft.

DL is a 4-5 round pick. They need a NT for run downs. These guys are available late rounds and FA.

WR/OT/ILB/CB if they can trade down and pick up a 3rd or 4th that would be ideal. I'd love to see Gute start talking about how impressed he is with Love have a meeting with him etc, the value is getting people to trade up to get him in the 1st rd for the 5 yr plan. KC/SF would want to trade down as well so if people really believe that the Pack might take him it would be an incentive to try and trade with the Pack.

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Packman60's picture

April 08, 2020 at 06:43 pm

If Love drops to Green Bay. They will either select him or trade back. Besides Indy, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and possibly Carolina could be interested in trading up.Hopefully, they find a trading partner as they could use the extra draft capital. Wide Receiver, OT, ILB, and DL are immediate needs and they need to be looking ahead to developing players to possibly replace potential losses in free agency next year, so center, cornerback and running back are also needs. Three picks in the top 100 is not enough to begin to address all these needs.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:39 pm

If teams wanted Love, they wouldn't wait for the #30 pick to move on him.

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HankScorpio's picture

April 09, 2020 at 04:56 am

From Miami @ 18, I think there are only 3 picks where I'd be shocked if Love was the choice--Philly, Seattle and Baltimore.

Miami x2, LV, Jax, Minny x2 NE, NO and Tenn are all possibilities to take Love. With all those possibilities, I have to believe that one of them will take him or compel a team looking to move up to jump higher than 30.

Never say never. But it sure seems unlikely.

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CoachDino's picture

April 08, 2020 at 06:50 pm

Two things I keep hearing about the Packers that puzzles me
1) They have 11m left in cap space to sign a FA - They have 11m or so to sign their draft picks (6-8m) Hold some for mid season signings (Huge and a Gute Specialty), extensions and the carryover teams like to do. Please realize that the 11 M left is not available for FAs- - its really a misleading statement

2) The Packers and MP don't value ILB in the sense that the League does. There has been like 5 ILB taken in the 1st rd in the last 5 drafts (2 last year) The LEAGUE doesn't value ILB enough to draft them in the 1st round or to pay them top dollar in FA. There's always a few outliers (Wagner/Mosely). So the Packers are not out of line with the rest of the NFL... Sorry Blake. Should of been a QB/WR/Edge/CB/OT or a Left handed pitcher if you wanted to be playing a highly valued and paid position. So weak to blame the Packers for his weaknesses.

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Lphill's picture

April 08, 2020 at 07:47 pm

Devin Bush and Devin White were first round picks last year .

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flackcatcher's picture

April 09, 2020 at 05:59 am

I'm a lefty but I got no arm. Sigh.......

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Spock's picture

April 09, 2020 at 06:46 am

Reminds me of the old joke line, "I'd give my right arm to be ambidextrous."

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HankScorpio's picture

April 09, 2020 at 04:33 am

I fully expect Rodgers to remind everyone why many considered him the best QB in football not so long ago. He'll be in year 2 with ML. So will everyone else. Except the early rook WR I expect will provide a big infusion of talent.

Maybe I've turned a blind eye to his decline. But he was still making amazing throws few other QBs would even attempt last year. I just turned on the Raiders game from week 7--the only game I missed as I was traveling. The very first drive ended in one of those throws to Aaron Jones for a TD. Tight window to a guy that was covered pretty well. No matter. TD.

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