Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - July 22 2020

The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.

Rookies: Well, I had hoped to have some rookie training camp news for you this morning, which of course didn't happen - they are now scheduled to report on Thursday.  This is all pending that the Packers, infectious disease emergency response (IDER) plan is approved by the NFL Players Association with respect to COVID-19 prevention, testing and procedures for handling positive cases.

Gutey and Ball did not take the day off, however, as they officially brought 3rd round pick Josiah DeGuara into the Packers' fold. Courtesy of Ken Ingalls, here is what the Packers Salary cap looks like now that all the rookie draft picks have been signed. (cc: Kenny Clark, David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, Kevin King).

 

 

Packers Profits:   Per this article by Bill Huber of SI, the Packers' profit in their latest fiscal year was $70.3 Million, an over 9000% increase from the previous fiscal year. This is not a misprint. The last year of McCarthy's tenure (6 wins, no playoffs) brought a modest profit of only $724,000. Fast forward one year - Titletown district, new coach, 13 wins, playoffs = $$$$$$$$$$$$. The current fiscal year, which started April 1st, could turn out to be the most challenging for the Packers since the old days when the community basically kept the team in business.

 

QB Wins: The age-old argument on how much credit goes to the QB when a team wins rages on. I've always been on the "teams win games" team - until you start talking about playoff wins and Bart Starr's name comes up. I will then flip flop like Brett Favre at his most unsure retirement moments and tout Starr's playoff win record to anyone that hasn't yet angrily left the room.

 

 

Fans at Home Games?:  Mark Murphy estimates the Packers will have  a maximum of 10,000-12,000 fans at home games (when they decide to allow fans) and are giving all season ticket holders the option to opt out of the 2020 season while retaining their ticket rights for 2021. My guess is that knowing Packers fans, many more fans will "opt in" than tickets will be available. Would you opt in?

 

Save The Kettle Update: They have reached 82% of their goal and donations are still coming in. It's not to late to help, if you can. From last time:

Perhaps the most iconic Packers bar outside of Wisconsin is struggling to survive. Kettle of Fish, located on Christopher Street in the heart of Greenwich Village in NYC, this bar was famous as a hangout for cool cats like Jack Kerouac and Bob Dylan since 1950. I've often said that any Packers fan visiting NYC MUST stop by Kettle of Fish and soak it all in. My hope is that fans will have such an opportunity in the future and that's why we're helping to promote a GoFundMe page to help "The Kettle" survive being shut down since March. If every Packer fan just gave a dollar, this would be a piece of cake. As it is, if you can help at all, whatever ther amount, you'll be doing a great thing for Packer Nation. And yes, Aaron Rodgers supports this effort.

 

 

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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther.  Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP

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Comments (44)

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RCPackerFan's picture

July 22, 2020 at 06:46 am

Rookies:
I can't wait to see these rookies play. I just hope I can see them play as rookies...

Packers Profits:
This year is going to be a challenge no doubt. Just like every other business not named Walmart and Amazon and whatever, there will be a lot of struggles for everyone. The question I have is what happens next year then. Talk of salary cap going down. This could really turn into a mess for the future.

QB Wins:
I consider it team wins. But you can look at how many wins each QB has. Just kind of my opinion on it. I think playoff wins are more of a team win then a QB win. During the regular season a great QB can beat any bad team almost by himself. (still a team game). The playoffs they are playing the best teams in the league. Meaning they can expose the weakest part of the team even more. This is a big reason why the Packers have 1 Trophy with Rodgers. Just look at the average points the Packers defense have given up in all of his playoff losses.

Fans at Home Games?:
At this point, I'm a Debbie Downer and I will be surprised if there are fans at games. If they can get 10-12k fans though, that is still doing better then normal Chargers home games lol.

Save The Kettle Update:
Hopefully they can get it saved!

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nostradanus's picture

July 22, 2020 at 07:59 am

*I believe teams will just automatically keep their draft choices and stash UDFA that they have paid bonuses to on the PS. There is just not enough time to truly evaluate these kids, too bad for some of them.

*The Packers will again go back to cautious mode with regards to salary cap and signing anyone else. There are just too many uncertainties right now. As they say in the old western movies “circle the Wagon’s boys”

*Great to see the Packers turned a big profit, they will need it in these unprecedented times.

*Teams win Super Bowls, just look at some of the QB bums who won them, Trent Dilfer, Joe Flacco, Doug Williams. Nick Foles, Jimmy G (well almost)

*I guess we must all be prepared for a no fans in the stands season, for the Madden and fantasy nerds it’s probably no big deal (no offense nerds), but it will be strange indeed.

It really has taken the excitement out of training camp and sports in general. The players keep complaining about their safety? What about the rest of us bums who have no choice but to go to work in hospitals, stores or any other job with the public? We have to brave our low paying jobs each day? Are we any less valuable? A message to NFL and other pro sports players, do your job and earn your multi millions or stay in your bubble safe from the peasants, whatever pussies!

*that is all

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dobber's picture

July 22, 2020 at 08:51 am

"The Packers will again go back to cautious mode with regards to salary cap and signing anyone else."

I think this is true of most teams as a salary cap cliff is threatening. It could lead to a significant correction in the FA market over the next year or two. Whatever the case, any significant moves the Packers might be considering from here on out would likely need to be on the fringe of the roster, or accompanied by a cut or a significant restructure of an existing deal.

"Great to see the Packers turned a big profit, they will need it in these unprecedented times."

We also need to see how the Packers handled their expenditures and how that impacted their reporting in the previous year to really know what that means.

"I guess we must all be prepared for a no fans in the stands season, for the Madden and fantasy nerds it’s probably no big deal (no offense nerds), but it will be strange indeed....It really has taken the excitement out of training camp and sports in general."

I've been streaming the Brewers Blue/Gold Series as they get ready for the start of "meaningful" games this week and while there's not much going on in the background (they do pipe in some crowd noise), there's a very different feel for what's going on. The players seem to be playing with smiles on their faces. They're joking around.

I don't kid myself, these players all know each other very well and these games are only warm-ups, but these games have had a feel of Wednesday night softball league, having a beer and watching a bunch of friends who like to play having fun. If THIS is what no fans does to game atmosphere, I'm all for it, but I ain't holding my breath.

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mnbadger's picture

July 23, 2020 at 09:49 am

Didn't both Doug Williams, though maybe it was the running back Timmy Smith, and Nick Foles win the SB MVP?
They both deserved it, so not really bums. They both had a huge hand in securing the win. GPG

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marpag1's picture

July 23, 2020 at 11:56 am

If you want to compile a list of really bad, super bowl-winning QBs, check out Joe Namath. It's dumbfounding how many people think he was a good player.

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Bearmeat's picture

July 22, 2020 at 07:58 am

Coronavirus can bite my saggy left nut. That is all.

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dobber's picture

July 22, 2020 at 08:43 am

Did CHTV suddenly turn into a fetish site?

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Bearmeat's picture

July 22, 2020 at 10:01 am

You didn't know about that change? I heard Behnke was leading the charge. ;)

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PeteK's picture

July 22, 2020 at 09:12 am

With or without hair?

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Bearmeat's picture

July 22, 2020 at 10:00 am

What do you think? lol

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PeteK's picture

July 22, 2020 at 09:18 am

I always thought that a QB with scrambling ability could win some games because when the blocking breaks down they could extend the play. Rogers has that ability and The Catch comes to mind.

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Bure9620's picture

July 22, 2020 at 11:59 pm

He HAD that ability and kind of has it now. Frankly, at nearly 37, he should be playing more within the structure of the offense. A QB scramblong and holding the ball for 6,7,8,9 seconds into their late 30s is a recipe for injury. This is why I think Love sees the field in the next 2 years. Brees and Brady are playing into their 40s by playing from the pocket and getting rid of the ball very quickly.

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

July 22, 2020 at 10:37 am

I'm a lifelong Packer fan who is stuck in California. I opted out for my season tickets so this will be a peculiar year not going to a single Packers' game. It's great to have a site like Cheesehead TV to keep us out of state guys up to date and allow us a chance to expound on our limited knowledge and shaky opinions.

Thanks Al for have this forum.

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stockholder's picture

July 22, 2020 at 04:47 pm

It's nice to earn a profit, But....... Salary Cap : ESPN's Dan Graziano reported the NFL salary cap "could drop by up to $70 million" in 2021 due to reduced revenues stemming from the coronavirus. So if this happens: How do we sign Bahk, or Clark? The Nfl Talked about expansion. If the Cap does drop. Is now the Time for an expansion draft? Think about that! It might just be the right Time to add a team or two. Qbs- I still believe in Starrs. We've just had to many bad ones.

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Point-Packer's picture

July 22, 2020 at 10:48 am

Reading about how Mike McCarthy's last year wasn't a financial boon for the organization made me think about how fun its going to be to watch Mashed Potato Mike tank in Dallas and incur Jerrah's wrath.

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13TimeChamps's picture

July 22, 2020 at 11:51 am

I'm assuming you're in tip top peak physical shape with six-pack abs, like all the other a-holes who constantly mocked McCarthy's appearance.

News flash: He, and his multi-million contract, couldn't care less what you think.

Anybody that can't make cogent arguments without juvenile name calling, display a lack of maturity, intelligence and basic respect.

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PeteK's picture

July 22, 2020 at 01:43 pm

So you follow it up with a foul reply. Turn anger into comedy, like this. MM's new contract will have him eating Fillet Mignon while you're eating possum. LOl-- No insult to people who enjoy that type of meat. Ate squirrel stew once, not bad. It's all in the prep.

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Point-Packer's picture

July 22, 2020 at 11:31 pm

Ha! Mike McCarthy was not only fat but also dumb.

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13TimeChamps's picture

July 23, 2020 at 09:10 am

Ha! Smart enough to become a multi-millionaire.

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Stroh's picture

July 22, 2020 at 10:46 pm

Last years modest revenue, onky 700k had absolutely NOTHING to do with the teams record. You ( and the author) make that flkmsy reasoning. It had to do with clearing the settlement of the concussion case , Rodgers huge contract, signing 4 high priced FA and some development of the Titletown District!

You should be thanking McCarthy for developing Rodgers and delivering a SB!

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Point-Packer's picture

July 22, 2020 at 11:36 pm

Fat Mike didn't develop Rodgers, if anything he held him back and through his pitiful conservative coaching didn't allow Rodgers to get another Super Bowl, if not two. Mashed Potato homers are the bane of my existence.

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Nate-1980's picture

July 23, 2020 at 01:12 pm

All of the cowboy fans I talk to don’t like having McCarthy as their coach, but he’s probably better than the bumski they had ha..

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Slim11's picture

July 24, 2020 at 10:09 am

My brother lives in the DFW area and is glad MM is their coach. He doesn't believe me when I describe the problems the Packers had with MM as the HC.

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Nate-1980's picture

July 23, 2020 at 01:20 pm

Double post

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Turophile's picture

July 22, 2020 at 11:32 am

I look at the importance of the various pieces for a Superbowl winning team like this:

Imagine a damn great weight on one side of a seesaw. That weight is all the other teams pushing down on that side to stop YOUR team from winning - now we have to add things on the other side of the seesaw to tip it the other way.

The things on your side of the seesaw include:
1 The GM and how well he drafts (determines the general quality of players on the team and how well they fit within the cap, going forward).
2 The Head Coach - and the coordinator on the opposite side of the ball to the HC's speciality, is also important. This affects team chemistry, scheme, organisation, motivation.
3 The QB. The single most important position on the field
4 Luck
5 Team health (also ties in with luck).

All those things are added to your side of the seesaw. To win the SB their combined weight must be enough to tilt it your way..............so if your QB is a pretty average one that doesn't contribute much 'weight' to the seesaw (lets say Mark Rypien, for example), for his team to win the 91/92 SB they need to be better somewhere else to add that tipping weight. Joe Gibbs was a very good coach (add weight) and the overall team quality (helped by his fine handling of the Plan B player movement at the time) was excellent. Together they are enough to give Washington the SB.

So in summary, to have a real chance to win a SB, any relative weakness in one area must be more than counterbalanced by other strengths. If you have a failing Peyton Manning in 2015 (his last season), then the Broncos can (and did) still win with plenty of talent elsewhere and a really dominant defense, one that only gave up 10 points in the SB.

The things I mentioned aren't the only ones that affect the seesaw, but you get the idea and can add your own things to this.

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ricky's picture

July 22, 2020 at 11:49 am

On fan attendance, what will be the procedure as to who goes to the games? Let's say that half the season ticket holders "opt out"- that would still leave about 40,000 season ticket holders who would want to attend. Yet about three quarters of them would not be allowed in. Who would be allowed in? A lottery would seem the fairest proposition.

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JerseyAl's picture

July 22, 2020 at 01:48 pm

From the article, it doesn't seem like that has been decided yet. A lottery is one option, splitting the season into "quarters" to allow more people to attend at least two games is another option.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

July 22, 2020 at 03:15 pm

Quarters would mean ~20,000 per game. MM said 10-12K so it would have to be even more split than that assuming most Season Ticket Holders accept thier split.

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murf7777's picture

July 22, 2020 at 12:18 pm

I believe the main reason for lack of profit in 2018 was due to Packers taking a one time hit with the building of Titletown. I don’t think it had much to do with wins and losses. Al, what was their profit in 2017?

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Bearmeat's picture

July 22, 2020 at 01:38 pm

It was mostly this, correct. There was also a lot of player pay in cash in 2018 IIRC. Combined with the fact that the team blew chunks. There's the result.

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JerseyAl's picture

July 22, 2020 at 01:47 pm

Of course Titletown costs were a large contributor, but no playoff games, and fewer fans willing to come in to town with the Packers fielding a mediocre team are factors not to be minimized.

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Stroh's picture

July 22, 2020 at 10:53 pm

The largest part of it was paying their share of the settlement in the concussion lawsuit. That Along with Rodgers contract extension, signing 4 high dollar FA and yes some development of the Titletown District.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

July 23, 2020 at 02:31 am

GR= Gross Revenue, Profit from Operations = PFO; Net Income = NI; National Revenue = NR; Local Revenue = LR.
12: GR/$308.1M; NI/$54.3M; Player Expenses (PE) $136M.
13: GR/$324.1M; NI/$25.5M NR/$187.7M; LR/$137M.

15: GR/$408.7M; PFO/75M; NI/$48.9M; NR/$222M; LR $186M
16: GR/$441.4M; PFO/63M; NI/$72.7M!; NR/$244M; LR $197M
17: GR/$458.9M; PFO/34M; NI/$38.6M; NR/$255.9M; LR/$198.99M
18: GR/$477.9M; PFO/724K; NI/$8.37M; NR/$274.9M; LR/$203.6M
19: GR/$506.9M; PFO/70M; NI/$34.9M; NR/$296M, LR/$210.9M

[!! = $27M relocation free artificially boosted Net Income in 2016/2017. The team didn't even receive any money for another 18 months and that money will be paid over a 10-year span of time.]

Making the playoffs seems to help Local Revenue. 2015 meant 2 away playoff games. 2016 = 3 games, one at home (5.9% increase in revenue, maybe in part due to that game). 2017 and 2018 had no playoff games, and local revenue increased by 1% and by 2.3%. 2019 had two playoff games, one at home, and Local Revenue increased by 3.58%.

As far as I can tell, the cap and player expenses in particular increase by greater percentages than local revenue figures do. That suggests a reliance on increasing National Revenue. So far, so good.

Murphy said the Packers were 9th in largest local revenue. Given GB's deliberate decision to charge just below the average for tickets, that is a good result. It suggests that many other teams don't make much money year to year. Those owners can make their money when they sell the team, so I won't cry too much for them.

Murf, there was an article in which Murphy specifically mentioned costs for land acquisition and construction for the Titletown district, but I don't remember for which year. I believe GB just bought some additional land as well, but I am not sure whether that will be reflected on next years financials or if they were included for this last year. Murphy also mentioned the concussion settlement for one of these years. A change in GAAP (accounting rules) required GB to includes unrealized investment losses in Net Income, so the bear market last March helped reduce Net Income. The market has since rebounded, but who know. The Reserve Fund is just over $400M.

Player Expense was $226.5M in 2019, down from $243M the previous year, which likely would include some/most of the big bonuses paid for the Smiths, Amos and Turner. While I am not crying for the owners, I also won't be crying for the players either, as player costs appear to be rising at somewhere between 7 and 8 percent every year.

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PeteK's picture

July 23, 2020 at 07:41 am

The Great Wizard of #s. Now get some sleep. LOL

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Oppy's picture

July 22, 2020 at 05:05 pm

Does anyone know where to find the PFF article that describes how they have ranked Rodgers as the best post season QB of the decade? It seems to me outside of the SB year, Rodgers' typically has been shaky to poor in our post season losses. I am surprised Tom Brady didn't take home the honor, to be honest.

Anyways, best I can find is an article that says "Rodgers is our highest rated post season QB of the decade", with no further comment on the subject.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

July 22, 2020 at 09:33 pm

AR has a career 100.0 passer rating in 18 games started in the playoffs. IDK how that correlates to his grades from PFF, and we've certainly seen PFF grades that do not correlate to passer rating for individual games, at least.

Still, a 100 Passer Rating probably should put AR in contention.

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Oppy's picture

July 23, 2020 at 09:41 pm

As Stroh mentioned, it's the losses that stick out to me.
Rodgers has had some very poor games in the post season when he needed to play his best.

Let the hate rain down on me from the masses. I can cope with it. But Rodgers has had some stinkers in the post season.

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Stroh's picture

July 22, 2020 at 10:55 pm

Most post season games Rodgers has been himself. The conference championship games are really the only poor showings. He's had 4 clunkers in the NFCCG.

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Oppy's picture

July 23, 2020 at 09:38 pm

facts get thumbs down it looks like unfortunately.

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Nate-1980's picture

July 23, 2020 at 02:23 pm

Tom Brady has played a few good games in the playoffs.. But mostly he was bailed out by his defense( especially Super Bowls).. That’s why I don’t think he’s the goat, but he has the rings, and I’m sure my opinion means nothing ha..

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

July 22, 2020 at 09:38 pm

I believe in team wins for playoff games. That said, if the playoff game is close overall, I'll take the team with the most difference-makers. (Yes, that puts me with one foot in both camps.)

I remember Reggie White taking over the end of one playoff game (super bowl IIRC), for example. Since the QB has the most chance to take over a game, probably QB wins is a reasonable stat in the playoffs, IMO (which is almost completely subjective).

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Stroh's picture

July 22, 2020 at 11:04 pm

Thd number of playmakers on each side of the ball and to a lesser degree on ST is probably the biggest factor in winning playoff games. But I still consider the playoff wins the separating factor when judging and comparing
QB. They have by far the largest impact in games in general and in the playoffs that gets magnified exponentially.

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Stroh's picture

July 22, 2020 at 10:28 pm

The reason they only made $700k the previous year had absolutely nothing to do with the record in McCarthy's last year. It would be nice if the author was upfront about that instead of spinning it as a shot at McCarthy.

The reasons are a huge payment due in the legal case and settlement of the concussion issues. That along with Rodgers contract extension, signing a bonanza of FA last offseason and some development of Titletown District.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

July 23, 2020 at 06:19 pm

It is impossible to quantify each team's tab for the settlement. 872 claims have been paid with a total payout of $501M and another $160M in claims have been approved but not paid out as of May, 2019. There were 1,700 dementia claims to be resolved, but those have been stickier to settle as mild cases are not eligible. Total fund is $1B but there is no cap, IIRC, and additional claims are both possible and likely. That $1B figure doesn't include costs for lawyers, adjusting fees for the claim administrator, etc. More recent articles suggest a $1.4B settlement cost. That would be about $44M per team. Not sure how teams that were more recent expansion teams figure into things.

The NFL settled with Westport Ins. Co. which had denied coverage because fraud was alleged in failing to disclose to and for withholding information from the players, not just mere negligence. The NFL settled with 6 other insurance companies in 2017. However, no one knows how much money the NFL got out of Westport, and there are 26 other Insurance Carriers with varying exposures (some insured the NFL for just a year to two) still involved in litigation with the NFL.

How big was GB's check for the settlement? Few know - I don't. The linked article might be biased, but suggests that each NFL team paid an extra $9.8M to $13M for the settlement in 2018. Note that there have been previous payments, and the settlement fund initially assumed contributions by NFL teams from 2014 through 2038. If each team is on the hook for roughly $44M in total, plus legal costs minus settlements with the insurance carriers, the $9.8M - $13M extra doesn't make sense to me.

https://advocacyforfairnessinsports.org/nfl-concussion-settlement/what-t...

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