Brian Gutekunst Drafts Like A GM Of The Packers
A lot of people were surprised when the Packers passed on Jaxon Smith-Njigba last week. But, when you step back and look at the big picture, they shouldn't have been.
By BruceIrons
When Brian Gutekunst took over as the General Manager of the Green Bay Packers, one of the first things he did was go on a big free agent spending spree.
By signing Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, and Billy Turner, he spent about as much money on free agents in a day as his predecessor did in his entire career, seemingly planting a flag that said "I am not Ted Thompson!"
Then, in his first draft, he jockeyed around in the 1st round, moving down, then moving back up for Jaire Alexander. The following year, he shocked us by taking Rashan Gary, then moving up in the 1st round again to take Darnell Savage. In his third year, he moved up again in the 1st round, this time to take quarterback Jordan Love.
Wow, he really made some bold moves, moving up for a the guys that he wanted, so different than what we'd been used to.
But, as time has gone on, things have reverted to the norm.
Though Brian Gutekunst started his tenure with some splash moves that were different than what we'd grown accustomed to, over time, we've seen that he might not be that different after all.
That's not necessarily a bad thing, mind you - the Packers have been one of the best teams in football for the last few decades.
But a lot of fans grow tired of the "boring" Packers way (despite all the winning it's brought).
Love it or hate it, the Packers have some core tenets in how they operate their football team, and they weren't going to turn the keys over to a GM candidate who didn't uphold them.
The best we can do is understand it and accept it. Starting with the wide receivers.
This year, the Packers needed a slot receiver. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the best receiver in the draft, played exclusively at slot, and met the Packers size threshholds. And he actually fell to him.
But the Packers passed.
They did, however, take three pass catchers in the 2nd round (which is where they previously got Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and Christian Watson). The Packers know that wide receiver value can be found after round 1. They don't pass on 1st round receivers because they hate their quarterback (despite what you may hear), they do it because of economics: receiver is a position where it's easier to find talent after the 1st round.
Instead, they drafted Lukas Van Ness in the 1st round. A pass rusher.
Pass rusher is a position that is much harder to find talent after the 1st round (I first analyzed this in 2017, and little has changed since then). This is why Gutekunst also took guys like Rashan Gary and Devonte Wyatt early (similar to his predecessor drafting Clay Matthews and Nick Perry in the 1st round).
The Packers also value cornerbacks and coverage safeties. They also used 1st round picks on Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage, and Eric Stokes (similar to his predecessor drafting Damarious Randall and Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix in the 1st round - and Kevin King with the frist pick after the 1st round).
You know what else the Packers value?
Quarterback.
The most important position in the game.
The Packers are not a team that will just let the QB position flap in the wind. They always have a succession plan. Much like when they groomed Aaron Rodgers (and half a dozen other quarterbacks like Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks, and Ty Detmer) when they had Brett Favre. This is also why they drafted Brian Brohm when the future of the position was up in the air.
This is why they took Jordan Love, too. It wasn't because Brian Gutekunst had an infatuation with him or some other silly personal reason - it was because the Packers team operates with long-term success, especially at the most critical position, in mind.
Another norm that the Packers have recently returned to is volume drafting. The Packers have acquired 24 picks over the last two years (and have another probable 1st round pick in the hopper for next year). They trade down to get more picks because they know that the more chances you have, the better your odds of picking a star. They also trade aging veterans for picks because they know that 40 year-old quarterbacks and 30 year-old wide receivers don't have a long shelf life.
These aren't preferences of Brian Gutekunst, who some people want to seem to make out to be an egomanic.
These are the tenets of how one of the most successful teams in football for 30 years has managed to stay one of the most successful teams in football for 30 years. They aren't some wild mavericks, either - this is how champions draft.
Now that Brian Gutekunst has half a dozen drafts under his belt, we can sift through the outlier decisions and clearly see that he operates like the Packers have always operated.
And that's a good thing, considering how successful they've been since the Cold War ended.
Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.
Comments (140)
NickPerry
May 05, 2023 at 06:41 am
I've mentioned it numerous times...I don't have a problem with Gutekunst though I do think he could have maybe tried to help Rodgers more in those first few drafts. But what I think everybody should remember is Mark Murphy changed things just as he hired Gute. The buck stopped with Murphy.
When Gute was hired he inherited a team that hadn't drafted well the last few years BECAUSE Ted was Ill. The next season McCarthy was out thanks in large part to the QB McCarthy helped develop. A few weeks later it was Mark Murphy introducing MLF and doing most of the talking while Gute stood by and IMO looked like man who had little to do with the hire, while Mark Murphy was running his gibs.
Despite a meddling wanna-be team owner I think Gute has done an excellent job, especially the last 2 years. Once MLF was hired Gute began to build a team that would win with Defense (hopefully) and running the ball and drafted that way.
Now, with the guy who was told not to be the problem gone, and that ridiculous contract going with him, the Packers have a chance to reset very quickly so long Love is even average. Last years draft was pretty damn good and IF Wyatt and Walker take big steps (They WILL), it was a grand slam. Combine it with this years haul, especially those first 4 picks PLUS, Wicks and Brooks who Gute was able to draft by trading down twice and STILL drafted Reed, this is a young, talented, skilled team with a chance to grow TOGETHER.
They may not win 13 games or even make the playoffs this season, but they'll be a fun team to watch and preform and grow. Gute's doing it Ron's and Ted's way with his own twist. Now, if Murphy would just retire maybe we can REALLY start something!
KenEllis
May 05, 2023 at 07:16 am
Murphy changed how the Packer front office operated BEFORE Gute took the job not AFTERWARDS.
Murphy made it crystal clear with the new silos that the "buck stopped with Murphy" not the GM or the head coach who both report to Murphy directly.
Gute knew, or certainly should have known, precisely what he was walking into. Pretending 5+ years later that Gute is somehow a victim of circumstances is, at best, disingenuous.
Gute ain't doing it Ted's way, he's doing it Murphy's way, and there is no way in Hell that Ron Wolf takes the Packer GM job if he had to report to a doofus meddling wanna-be team owner like Mark Murphy instead of a consummate professional who knew not to intrude into football operations like Bob Harlan.
Oh, and as for the teams Gute has put together to date, almost all of the best players during his 5 year run as GM (Rodgers, A. Jones, Bakhtiari, Adams, and Clark) have one thing in common - they were drafted by Ted Thompson.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 07:52 am
Ken,
Always wondered who actually was drafting the last year or two when Ted was so sick? Was it Ted, Gutey, Ball, or was it Murphy?
KenEllis
May 05, 2023 at 08:15 am
No one can say for sure who was responsible for the disastrous 2015 draft or the even worse 2017 offseason (draft and free agency), because it sure seems like Ted was not medically capable of doing the job and the cat has never been let out of the bag as to who was actually in charge.
Just like the Rodgers contract extension last offseason. Who is responsible for that debacle?
Gute's fans insist it was Murphy and that may well be the case, but no one knows for certain.
Almost as if another central tenet of the new Packer structure under Murphy is that no one is held accountable for poor decisions.
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 11:05 am
When Silage is not allowed to breathe, it can Ignite.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 03:29 pm
So what was Gute to do? Pass on the crown jewel of jobs that every scout dreams of because he didnt get the bottom line authority Wolf had? Cmon. Theres wouldve been 1000 other scouts lining up to be Murphy's whipping post. Gute didnt create these circumstances. But hes tried his best to make a winner despite said circumstances. Would people respect him more if he sabotaged his own career by quitting just to prove a point? Hes worked his entire adult life for this job. Give the guy some slack. Hes done a pretty damn good job despite Murphy's interference.
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 11:16 pm
He was being Interviewed to be the Texans GM at the moment of panic by Murphy...
cdoemel
May 05, 2023 at 10:02 pm
What’s disingenuous is to say all the good players on a BG team were drafted by TT, when all of BG’s draft picks are still very early in their careers. All those guys you listed weren’t superstars year one.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 07:51 am
Nick, I align very closely with what you’ve said here. Gutekunst really inherited a compromised roster, with Kenny Clark Ted’s lone parting gift we all can be thankful for, in what was a very sad ending to Thompson’s tenure.
We might wonder how much Gutekunst played a part in that Kenny Clark selection. IMO, same holds true for Kevin King. We all know which one worked out. Thompson’s downwards descent began in 2015, if drafts be the indicator.
Regardless, it appears Gutekunst may have stacked success with his 2022 & 2023 drafts. Time will tell, but I find both encouraging.
ArlenWilliams
May 05, 2023 at 02:46 pm
Who finally got fed up with Mike McCarthy's caution, predictability, and stubbornness?
Who hired Gutekunst?
Mark Murphy isn't a banker who decided to get into the game. He's a football man and the leader that the executive in charge of a football team should be.
cdoemel
May 05, 2023 at 10:04 pm
God!! Finally!!! Yes!! But be careful dude. They’ll come for you. The haters.
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 07:17 am
Murphy is a football guy since he was a player, but he’s always been a sports administrator, never a personnel guy.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 06:48 am
I believe Gutekunst might be improving in drafting players, but whether that’s true only time will tell.
He hit big in early rounds his first 3 drafts, but the back ends, his Day 3s, left much to be desired 2018, 2019 and 2020.
TJ Slaton may have saved his Day 3 in 2021. Kylin Hill’s ACL that year really hurt, and I never felt Van Lanen & McDuffie were more than throw away picks.
The real improvements may have started to show only recently, in the 2022 draft as a whole.
The draft is a weird animal in R1. You typically get the best QBs there. The best WRs, DEs, DTs and CBs typically come from R1. Along with that come the highest bust potentials at those positions.
Maybe LaFleur shows his QB development chops enough with Jordan Love to turn late round QBs into a trade commodity again in GB. Wolf & Holmgren were quite successful there. Love’s success is key in all of that.
What I appreciate most about Gutekunst is his willingness to use all 3 avenues of talent acquisition: draft, FA & trade.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 07:57 am
The flow of free agents diminished as our cap evaporated. It’s that simple in my opinion.
Given where this roster was in 2018, not many here saw us competing seriously in 2020. There is no doubt that our depth and skill level increased dramatically.
I firmly believe that we had a good enough roster to win it all in 2020 and 2021. That we didn’t is not on Gute as I see it.
Whatever our personal views, we all know that there are a ton of questions about tactics, personnel use, coaching and adjustments. Unlike TT, Gute isn’t in control of LaFleur. Thus the answer to those questions perforce lies elsewhere and this year may well provide much stronger insights into them.
Personally, my big questions about both past and present do not focus on Gute in any way. Now we have a new QB with a young but talented roster, it’s what we do on the field and in development. I believe that there will still be weaknesses beyond youth, but at less positions than I anticipated. Next year will address them. That’s the price of denial last year.
murf7777
May 05, 2023 at 08:10 am
CW, I never liked Gutey doing all 4 FA contracts in one year, Smith’s, Amos and Turner. Fortunately, to much extent they all turned out, but it did hurt the SC to a large degree. I’d be more in favor of spreading out FA acquisitions vs 4 big ones in any single year. I guess if GB won the SB it would’ve been worth it. I always appreciated TT’s approach, I guess I’m more conservative and like to have money in the bank:)
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 08:21 am
I think that was a reflection of how poor the talent was at the time, not only at the top, but how denuded our pipeline had become. I saw it as a move to try to get us back to a competitive level around Rodgers as fast as possible. That worked. So, while not ideal, I think it was defensible in those circumstances.
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 11:07 am
Correct, covering up for poor drafting.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 03:37 pm
It wasnt those contracts that killed the cap per se. It was the endless restructuring thus pushing more guaranteed money onto the following year's cap. Thats how we ended up with guys like Clark and Jones entering the offseason with $20+ mil cap hits, which have since been restructured, again. Imo, the biggest difference between Gute and Ted is Ted wouldve just moved on from guys instead of trying to keep it all together by pushing money into the future. Thats my only real gripe with Gute and we cant even be sure those were his decisions or if he even agreed with them. Hes publicly alluded to not being 100% on board with that strategy by pointing out that is hasnt been standard operating procedure the last few years.
murf7777
May 05, 2023 at 04:27 pm
It started with those contracts and the other contracts had to be renegotiated and pushed back with void years, or players would've been cut to meet the SC. If those big 4 FA contracts wouldn't been done, they wouldn't of had to do so much pushing the cap down the road. Your right TT would've dealt with the problem right away. Oh we'll two different approaches. I think Gutey was going all in for Rodgers last years.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 05:01 pm
Yes thats where it started, but they also had a ton of cap space going into that offseason. They werent mortgaging the future with those signings. The mortgaging didnt begin till the following offseason when Bakh got his huge 3rd contract and the endless restructures began.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 06:26 pm
All began when Murphy announced the first last dance. To be honest, it was probably with limits till last off season.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:09 pm
Fair point, C-Dub. Dont really have a rebuttle for that.
Since'61
May 05, 2023 at 10:24 am
Great post Coldworld. The issues now and have been with the coaching staff. Murphy is another nagging concern. Gute has been and remains somewhere in the middle. I believe that Gute and Ball, given all of the cap machinations over the last 2-3 seasons, have been the most competent of the FO personnel.
Murphy and Matt LaChooch have the most frustrating of the management team.
Murphy's restructured organization has seriously blurred the lines of communication and the lines of accountability for the Packers. We have 2 more seasons to go but hopefully Murphy begins to back off in his direct involvement with the day to day football operations.
If the Packers haven't already the Packers should be developing a list of candidates to replace Murphy after 2025 and they should be considering executive search firms to hire for the Murphy replacement search. Succession planning is a key factor for successfully moving forward in any organization. I am not ruling out Gute or Ball as potential replacements. If so I would recommend that the Packers fully vet them via an external search organization to mitigate the possibilities of a biased selection for Murphy's replacement.
Thanks, Since '61
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 11:10 am
If the 2023 trajectory is downhill, Clean house.
Since'61
May 05, 2023 at 05:52 pm
Agree jannesbjornson but unfortunately Murphy will never do it. He'll coast until 2025 and leave the mess he created (if the Packers have a mess) for the next guy.
2023 will be a honeymoon season for Love as it should and for the coaching staff. 2024 will be more of a prove it season for MLF and Love. After that it will up to Murphy's successor. Thanks, Since '61
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 07:31 am
It all depends on whether Murphy is still in control in his closing months. Sometimes real power shifts long before. One sign of that is sudden changes in directions championed by the outgoing leader. When those don’t work out well enough and the organization has to pivot dramatically, it can signal that effective leadership has or is shifting behind the scenes.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 08:02 am
Bingo!
"What I appreciate most about Gutey is his willingness to use all 3 avenues of talent acquisition: draft, FA, & trade".
Will add I have always believed the biggest detriment Aaron Rodgers and the Packers had from winning another Super Bowl was Ted Thompson. While Bill Belichek was masterfully using FA, draft, & trades to replenish New England's talent & plug holes to win one Super Bowl after another TT mainly only used the draft. Yes, I know Ted brought in a couple very good FA's (Woodson and we won a SB) during his time as GM the FA's were few and far in-between. Simply research how often Belichek used FA vs Ted.
murf7777
May 05, 2023 at 08:15 am
KNock….I agree about Belichick, but keep in mind, most of his FA weren’t BIG contract splashes. He brought in aging vets at low price and fit them into his defensive schemes. It’s just hard to compare because Belichick is a defensive mastermind and they’re a few like him. I think there’s a happy medium between TT’s conservatism and Gutey’s BIG 4 FA acquisitions in one year that helped hamstrung the future cap.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 09:12 am
Murf,
Agree about Belichek but he masterfully knew exactly what he needed and where. Not a capologist and don't even try to be, but was it the BIG 4 FA acquisitions that hamstrung the future cap (because I thought what Gutey did was masterfully done & still do as it immediately changed the trajectory of the Packers), or was it more the result of the stupid AR contract debacle last year?
murf7777
May 05, 2023 at 04:32 pm
I'm also not a capologist either, but I do think it added a lot to the issues we are experiencing. Sure Arods does as well, but he doesn't stand alone in that category. If you have a top 5 QB your going to have to pay top 5. That's why I love the NFL over other sports. If you overspend you have to pay the piper sooner or later, there's no avoiding it. I know why Gutey did it and don't really have a big problem with it, I just would've liked it spread out more, so all the contracts aren't simultaneous.
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 11:13 am
Cooks, Moss, Welker, Amendola, the O linemen; he brought in people on both sides of the ball. He had the Film of these veterans. He knew how they played.
murf7777
May 05, 2023 at 04:36 pm
That's true......I'd argue, he did better on bringing in FA's than the draft.
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 07:24 am
The other side of it is that he was ruthless in getting rid of anyone and very very good at finding limited role players that fitted his need and system and playing them for their strengths. Cheap and effective and released when that efficacy declined.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:10 pm
He also won exactly zero super bowls with Moss or Welker.
Ferrari-Driver
May 05, 2023 at 11:10 am
And one other thing about Belichick that helped win all those Super Bowl rings...He would lie cheat, steal, and do anything, including taping opponent's practices and changing the air level in the football to give him an edge and better chance of winning. THE GUY SHOULD HAVE BEEN A POLITICIAN!
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 11:56 am
Funny Ferrari!
I think Belichek was simply misunderstood!
mnbadger
May 05, 2023 at 11:25 am
I'm expecting McDuffie to make noise this year - hopefully good noise.
GPG
cdoemel
May 05, 2023 at 10:05 pm
Hahahaha. Dude said he might be improving. Lol. Omg. Too funny
Since'61
May 05, 2023 at 10:27 pm
Deleted.
KenEllis
May 05, 2023 at 06:55 am
The author asserts that "Love it or hate it, the Packers have some core tenets in how they operate their football team." Agreed.
And when it comes to 1st round draft picks, every Packer fan should know by now that WR was off the table and the Pack would draft defense, defense, defense.
Over the past 12 drafts the Pack has gone OLB (thrice), DT (thrice), ILB (once), CB (thrice), and Safety (twice). Jordan Love was the sole exception to the defense in round 1 rule.
Oh, and the one year they did not have a 1st round pick they went CB with the first pick of the 2nd round (Kevin King).
Here is another core feature of the Packer football team, all that draft capital spent on the defense has resulted in mediocre or worse defensive play over the past 12 seasons.
As for the author's contention that "The best we can do is understand it and accept it," I certainly understand it, but I'll pass on accepting it.
Instead, I maintain that continually focusing on just one side of the ball in round 1 of the draft is a core Packer tenet that ought to be discarded given the results.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 07:21 am
KenEllis, you’re absolutely right. I was thinking that very same thing yesterday, pondering Rashan Gary’s long journey to realizing his potential.
Is that the way it should be? No.
If Luke Van Ness doesn’t start from Game 1 on, I will be one very disappointed fan.
Some of this stuff may seem core tenants, but, I agree that we might be better served mixing it up more.
After Derrick Sherrod’s R1 selection in 2011, it took 9 drafts before we tapped another O player, Jordan Love in 2020. That’s ridiculous.
“But, but, what about need?”
As “what ifs” go, what if Gary doesn’t return to the form it took him 3 years to realize? I think we’d probably lean more into “bust” on the meter. 100% if we extend him and get zero return.
That scenario would be fitting in EDGE/DT having biggest bust potential as WR, if not MORE!
Isn’t anybody afraid of that possibility?
Justin Jefferson was my WR crush. You could see it in his combine. Getting those All-Pro players at WR generally require R1 risk taking, and they can pay out instantly as rookies, if they hit.
Kind of like the lottery w EDGE and WR R1. Can’t win if you don’t play.
We played this year with Lucas Van Ness. Hopefully, he hits big. Maybe we play next year at WR, with a more deserving crop of WR talents in R1.
Then again, maybe we won’t have to, and we tap OT instead.
I really, really like Reed, Wicks & DuBose.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 08:14 am
Jefferson was long gone. I think it’s quite possible we would have tried to get him had he got a little closer. Last year we tried to take Watson in the 20s but got him in the second anyway. We know that. He might well be the best WR in that draft long term. It would also be pretty churlish to deny that we needed a DL and ILB. The WR I wanted early, Olave,’ was long gone by our pick. This year I’m relieved we didn’t pick a WR in the first. There simply wasn’t one worth it. Bad class at the top and not BPA till the late 20s.
Next year we may well take a WR, or we may all feel it unnecessary. I’m not high on our 5th rounder, but in the last 2 years, we’ve picked up a ton of talent that I’m excited about at WR and now TE. I’m not as sanguine as some about the TEs being ready to do it all this year, I think that will take time, but I think by next year a number of these players will be starting to shine and the over all benefit magnified.
Now LaFleur needs to show he us a coach that can install an offense that can use their skills to the potential of its parts as much as Barry must do with the talent on D. If either trot out the same approaches as last year, it won’t be pretty. That’s where the real questions and answers lie.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 08:46 am
I know Jefferson was long gone. It wasn’t an argument. However, what if Gutekunst really went after him? Traded up to steal him away?
We might be having very very very different discussions right now.
I’m a Jordan Love fan, but, what world would we be in had we traded up just 6 more slots to #20 overall to take Jefferson?
Would we have more hardware in the 1265 trophy case? Maybe.
If we’re talking core tenants, that trade up would not have fit, which goes straight to KenEllis’ point.
We might be best served breaking out of some of those.
I love our drafts this year and last year. None of us knows, but next year may be the right draft for more O.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 08:58 am
Trading up is very expensive. Had we no holes needing filling and a normal cap, maybe, but the fact is we had too many needs to sacrifice that kind of draft capital and too little cap to replace it by a signing of equal value. Had he dropped closer, then I think we might have.
I don’t care who starts. I do care who gets snaps. I expect to see Van Ness in the rotation and to see his role gradually expand. Personally, I’d rather get a player comfortable and effective in a role first and then expand it, but that’s not the Packer way all too often. Sadly it often means more snaps for lesser talent for far too long. The failure to do that with Wyatt was shooting our selves in the foot. Our coaches handling of personnel was very dubious. It goes without saying, that has to be a lot better this year on both sides of the ball.
coolhand
May 05, 2023 at 09:59 am
I agree Coldworld. This coaching staff seems too reluctant to play rookies even though they are better than the player on the field, as an example the O line last year. Why Newman was starting I had no idea, and after it took 4 games for the coaches to decide he was not the answer, they replace him with an even worse option in Hanson. THEN, when they see he is even worse, Tom gets a shot and surprise, he was effective, not great, but better than the others. I hope this year the coaches let the rookies play and get experience and push each other to get better.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 03:47 pm
Say they did get Jefferson. Would Rodgers have looked at a rookie with the game on the line instead of forcing it to Adams in the end zone? Would he have not missed the 2 wide open tds to MVS and Adams in that same game? I
Would Jefferson have been more open than a completely uncovered Lazard to the point Rodgers wouldve actually looked off of Adams with the game on the line in 2021? The answer is no and everybody knows it. I fail to see how Jefferson wouldve magically made Rodgers play differently with the game on the line. He was still going to play "Buddy Ball", as J.T. O'Sullivan so eloquently put it, and nobody's convincing me otherwise. Still dont know why this is even a topic of conversation. 5 prime Randy Mosses couldnt get Rodgers to play better in win-or-go-home games. Pretending otherwise is just excusing poor big moment play from the guy who was paid all the money to make the plays in those very moments. The plays were there to be made and he didnt make them. Cant we just accept it and move on? They drafted Love and theres no going back.
Tundraboy
May 05, 2023 at 09:07 pm
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Tundraboy
May 05, 2023 at 09:08 pm
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Tundraboy
May 05, 2023 at 09:08 pm
Absolutely, our annoying tendencies to essentially redshirt first year additions, save for necessity due to injury must end. What I wonder most is how much will we really utilize new weapons and old. I do not want to see a repeat of how poorly we utilized Aaron Jones. MLF and Barry have a lot to prove.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:11 pm
But we have many examples of it working. So why fix something that isnt broke?
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 08:14 am
Gary was drafted #12.
Lukas was drafted #13.
Jaire was selected #18.
Stokes drafted #29.
Quay Walker at #22.
Wyatt at #28.
Savage at #21
Jordan Love at #26.
Where you draft in round 1 makes a huge difference!
For what it is worth GG....Justin Jefferson was my #1 choice in 2020, but I knew the Vikings would take him. My 2nd choice was Jordan Love and as I have stated before when the Packers moved up for the selection I knew it was for Jordan.
Leatherhead
May 05, 2023 at 01:09 pm
"""KenEllis, you’re absolutely right. I was thinking that very same thing yesterday, pondering Rashan Gary’s long journey to realizing his potential.
Is that the way it should be? No.
If Luke Van Ness doesn’t start from Game 1 on, I will be one very disappointed fan. """"
It took Ray Nitschke 4 years to become a starter.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 01:53 pm
True. My All-Time favorite LB!!! I have his autographed HOF 1987 football in my Lounge!!! Along with the 8 x 10” black & white glossy!
Ray was a special marauder.
LOL.
The context I was using overall involves our not knowing his return to pre-injury form, or if he can return close to that???
We’re right in front of shelling out a ton of dough for him in a long-term commitment.
Tough decisions, and I love what Rashan was finally able to showcase through 10 games last season. He’s just so dependent upon speed & torque. It made me wonder a bit.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 03:52 pm
Exactly, LH. Its about who becomes great players, not who gets there the fastest. I'll take a slow developer who becomes a high end player over a quick developer who peaks too soon. They havent has a top 10 pick since BJ Raji (2009). And yet theyre somehow expected to find elite players who dominate right away every single year like they grow on trees. Its unrealistic to the point of people sabotaging their own fan experience with expectations that arent likely to be met. GG's comment is a perfect example. LVN hasnt even practiced with his team yet and GG has already drawn a line in the sand with him. Just let the kid's career play out ffs.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 04:47 pm
Hey TBSH. Not drawing a line in the sand, at all. I mean, If Gary is a full go, and they decide Van Ness needs more sideline seasoning, who am I to argue?
I’m just thinking Gary might take more time to get back, leaving all the snaps to Preston Smith & Kingsley Enagbare (who I really, really like a lot). Van Ness, a Top 15 pick ought to see more snaps than Gary garnered with the Smith Bros debuting their wares in GB. That’s all.
Something tells me Enagbare has that real breakout year Coldworld alluded to … somewhere along the line here. My CHTV mind is a blur. Exciting stuff.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 05:08 pm
In one of your above comments you said exactly this: "If Luke Van Ness doesn’t start from Game 1 on, I will be one very disappointed fan." Ok maybe its not a "line in the sand" but you're putting an unneeded expectation on a player when you know theres a strong likelihood that expectation wont be met. I tend to like most of your comments and you seem like a smart dude. So why set yourself up for disappointment like that? Even if he doesnt start right away, it means nothing for his overall career arc. If he becomes an all pro one day, it wont mean any less because he didnt start day 1. I have no expectations for these kids. My only expectation is that the team will do whats necessary to develop them properly even if it means little playing time right away. Its not a sprint, Its a marathon.
Johnblood27
May 05, 2023 at 07:38 am
Hey Ken, let me play Willie Buchanon for a minute here.
While it does seem a little unbalanced, the drafting of defense in round 1 by the GBP has a bit to do with supporting the assertion that the best offensive players can found in round 1.
The Pack almost always drafting in the mid to late 20;s has left the elite offensive players off the Packer board in many instances and when some elite offensive players were there the talent of the remaining defensive players overshadowed them.
That alone does not explain or justify the plethora of defense picks in round one, but it begins to open the door to understanding that round 1 isnt the same top to bottom.
Another item for consideration is that the recent GBP Head Coaches have done a poor job in choosing and holding accountable their defensive coordinators.
All the way back to Mike Sherman and Ed Donatell to MLF and the inherited Mike Pettine and the second choice Joe Barry, the scheme and development from the DC has been just short of abysmal in GB.
There have been good and bad defensive assistants, but the man at the top of the defense has not delivered the necessary results for the team to ascend to the ultimate goal. IMO a better job at the DC position would make all the other positions better and perhaps worthy of Championship caliber play.
The HC is certainly part of the problem if the DC underperforms. MLF hasn't shown the staff discipline to give me confidence, and McCarthy was waaaaay to loyal to underperforming coaches. A little tough love and willingness to demand excellence would sure help.
On a different front, maybe a little Jim Hill and Al Matthews here...
Murphy didn't take over the GM's role completely. He simply inserted himself occasionally to play over his head and make poorly structured decisions within the framework of Guteys job, like the MLF hire and the AR contract, etc. Murphy also began commenting publicly about football operations after his "silo" fiasco where he alone was at fault for leaving a declining TT in place. Murphys ill timed and idiotic comments have placed Gutey in very poor positions to do his job at times. Murphy also acted as arbiter in discussions between the financial (Ball) and Personnel (Gutey) side of pro player contract discussions and decision making concerning whether to keep or dismiss players. That should be Guteys final call. Murphy carries a LOT of the blame for the poor decisions that have been laid at the feet of Brian Gutekunst.
Learn it
Live it
Love it
Consider all aspects of the situation before you dump the turds soley on Gutey.
KenEllis
May 05, 2023 at 07:49 am
You can play Oceanside Pirate Willie Buchanan anytime with me Blood. Now, Willie was a very good 1st round pick on some bad Packer defenses.
I also agree with your point that POOR DEFENSIVE COACHING has been a huge problem for years and years - one might even say a central tenet of Packer operation.
But management's unstinting use of 1st round draft capital despite the poor defensive coaching is not exactly a recipe for success and on that note Joe Barry says hello.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 08:36 am
By 2018, the cupboard was bare. The Ball era, 3 years or so, had not only left us with a dreadful O and D but with depth that was almost laughably bad. We had no pipeline. In my view, that’s the one thing we never got fixed fully, though Gute’s signings helped. We have been playing catch up and maintain since then. The cap drop I think hit us particularly hard. It forced us to keep drafting to fill by limiting who we could keep and sign at a key point in the roster recovery process.
The resurgent roster also left us picking late. Always picking to try and fill holes. This year and last year the cap has forced us to go younger. That is the opportunity not only to bring in talent for now, but to improve the pipeline of developmental talent to give us more options in early drafts. That’s how I see this latest draft in particular. A lot of players with upside that we can stash and develop.
If I could go back, it would have been in 2016-18 that I’d be taking offense early. Instead we ended up simply getting and increasingly reliant on Adams. Gute’s first draft had 3WRS, but so many other holes to fill we had to try to get by with them as the pipeline was broken. Let’s hope now we have and continue to stock the roster with enough players that can become future contributors worth having.
I’m trying to think of the last packers depth player to break out. I’m struggling. Maybe Nijman, but he’s a UDFA with a rare back story and physical talent. The breakouts have been Gute’s pick ups from other rosters. To me that raises questions about our coaching. I hope that those are unfounded, because this roster needs just that now.
HawkPacker
May 05, 2023 at 08:47 am
'I also agree with your point that POOR DEFENSIVE COACHING has been a huge problem for years and years - one might even say a central tenet of Packer operation.'
With that Ken, Barry better perform this year or he should be fired and in my opinion, MLF as well for allowing Barry to stay on another year. If that is the case, we have basically lost a year of further development of what I believe should be a very good defense!
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 08:52 am
Poor ST coaching, actually that’s too kind, was also arguably why we never got back to the big show. I certainly blame LaFleur—he appointed and refused to fire them. However, Russ Ball’s objection to Rizzi on cost grounds and Murphy’s resulting dithering quite probably cost us a Super Bowl directly. That’s not on Gute in any way. Nor is Barry. That’s on Murphy as he’s LaFleur’s only superior. That is now apparently fixed, but after the horse had bolted (it had time to leisurely stroll around Lambeau for years in reality).
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 09:58 am
JohnBlood
KenEllis
Coldworld
Hawk
You’ve all made great points here. 100%.
The one big question mark we face currently is Joe Barry. None of us can truly say without a doubt what his scheme actually is at this point.
I find that odd, and then look at the lack of commentary from both LaFleur & Gutekunst even more odd.
UNLESS, we are truly building the roster on D to be something else entirely. With accountability gone from the equation from those two, it really does make me think they are and have been building a hybrid type of D that offers LaFleurs’ “Illusion of Complexity,” as its core.
It would explain recent Packer draft dominance in the top of drafts being key defensive players. Changing out from Pettine-style types.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 10:45 am
If Barry doesn’t have a different plan I think the outcome is a repeat. That’s as true on D as in O, but if Barry indeed was in a transition last year, it would at least provide a somewhat plausible argument for his retention. I’m intrigued by the DL picks, types as opposed to individuals. It’s possible that you are right. We will see and it will be another interesting aspect of this year, along with how well it turns out if it is true.
CheesedDeadHead
May 05, 2023 at 12:38 pm
"The one big question mark we face currently is Joe Barry. None of us can truly say without a doubt what his scheme actually is at this point. "
Unfortunately, Barry probably doesn't know either. No need for opinion at this point, follow the data - 6 years as a DC FAILURE. That's a pretty thick straight line to expect deviation at this point. I think the failure in any analysis with Joe Barry is to assume that somehow the difference in the last few games of 2022 was significant as Opponent, Opponent QB with Concussion, Defense and special teams in 4 of those games is likely the reason the team/defense did better. The Rams and Bears were literally the 2 worst teams in the NFL when we faced them. In the defining game of the year, his defense and scheme was pretty blah. Just noise IMHO as the Barry trajectory of failure is pretty well established.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 03:06 pm
Your frustration reads loud & clear, my friend. I think all of us have been right there.
Thought a ton on what’s in play w JB. Would BG & MLF offer him a partnership in a total remake of our D into something cutting edge?
I could see that, yes.
Would they hire a complete dolt with every questionable move we fans have seen unquestioned?
No.
It appears they are trusting him to run that “Illusion of Complexity” thing MLF referenced upon Barry’s hire.
I believe there was a 3 draft window they gave themselves as working partners in this to get the players needed to run whatever morph they are about to run. At least, a possibility, cuz I can’t figure it out.
Maybe now they have the players to implement their visions. Maybe with accountability attached? Maybe.
Maybe not, but thats the only thing thats really makes any sense in my eyes.
Johnblood27
May 05, 2023 at 03:17 pm
GG, with the departure of Jerry Gray, the multiple voices in the heads of the defensive players may become a single voice and lead to better coordination of the defensive layers.
I am hoping that at least some of the dysfunction witnessed last season was due to friction in the meeting rooms and sideline.
I gotta have some faith that the guys prepping the scheme and coaching up our guys are at least competent if given a fair chance.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 03:38 pm
Exactly, JB!
That Jerry Gray fiasco made zero sense either, unless… they needed DBs equally adept at both zone and press coverage, able to flip on a dime. They added 3 of them in Tarvarius Moore, Carrington Valentine and Anthony Johnson Jr.
I’ve yet to look up Nixon et al from the ST signings earlier in the year on this….
—
And, whaddya know? CB Corey Ballentine fits that zone/press mandate Joe Barry spoke on towards end of last season if memory serves. Nixon had more zone strengths coming into his draft. Rasul Douglas touted as a “zone CB with press and trail ability,” per nfldotcom. Can’t say on Tyrell Ford or Kiondre Thomas. Benji Franklin (4.32)… who’s a speedster lacking press strength, but perfect in zone.
Shemar Jean-Charles “better in man but capable in zone as well.”
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 04:14 pm
Well lets use history for an example. The 2 most loaded Green Bay offenses I've seen in my life were the 2011 and 2014 teams. I did a deep dive on them a while back and IIRC I counted 11 different pro bowlers across these 2 offenses. You know how many were 1st round picks? 2. Rodgers and Bulaga. Once a career begins, where a player is drafted means nothing. Its nothing more than a stigma. Was Jordy somehow less of a player cuz he wasnt a 1st round pick? He had one of the best 5 year stretches ive ever seen for a receiver, averaging 80 catches, 1200 yds, and 10 tds per year fron 2011-2016 (sanz 2015 ACL year). Personally, I think he was an even bigger difference maker than Adams, but somehow he never even made a pro bowl. Jennings made multiple pro bowls and scored 2 huge tds in the super bowl. Adams was a 2nd rounder in a draft that included guys like Mike Evans and OBJ in the 1st round and he (imo) has had the best career of them all. Randall Cobb was a 2nd rounder. Only had a singlw 1000 yd season but has more than justified his draft capital and has been better than a whole slew of 1st round busts. Christian Watson was a 2nd round pick. If the 2022 draft was redone today, Jets are taking Watson instead of Garrett Wilson as the 1st receiver off the board and thats assuming Watson doesnt get drafted even sooner (which he probably would go even sooner). And dont even get me started on oline. Bakhtiari, Sitton, and Linsley all became top 3 at their positions despite none of them being drafted prior to the 4th round (Linsley was 5th round). Elgton Jenkins has quiety been one of the most dominant guards in football after being a 2nd round pick. Hes far better than the long list of 1st round bust offensive linemen out there. Here's the facts: this whole narrative about lack of 1st round picks spent on offense was born out people making excuses for Rodgers. Its clear as day. People will deny it till theyre blue in the face (I should know as I used to make the same emotionally driven excuses for Rodgers before finally seeing the light) but its the absolute truth. Weve heard it a million times. If only they had spent more 1st round picks on offensive players he wouldve won more super bowls. Well those guys wouldnt have magically made him play better in the biggest moments. Not a chance. This narrative needs to be buried once and for all. The Packers way works and if people think they can do better they should go take an unpaid quality control position with an NFL team as a sandwich runner and spend the next 20+ years working their way up the ranks as a scout till they become a gm to prove me wrong. Until they do that, its nothing more than noise from outsiders who dont even know what theyre saying. Not coming at you here JB. Just a general rant.
Johnblood27
May 05, 2023 at 08:16 pm
Im a mortadella guy, so while I have a preference, no bias towards baloney...
barutanseijin
May 05, 2023 at 09:01 pm
I agree. I would add that the “Capers/Pettine/Barry/scapegoat du jour suck and cost the Packers playoff victories” narratives are also rooted in making excuses for Rodgers. Not only DCs, but the defense as a whole took the blame for some miserable losses and resulted in defense heavy drafts. For example, the 2012 draft which was all D until TT took Andrew Datko & the immortal BJ Coleman in the seventh came after Rodgers’ flop at home as the #1 seed in the 2011 playoffs (an anemic 78.5 QB rating with 2 turnovers.)
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:17 pm
Defense hasnt always been great and it hasnt all been Rodgers' fault either. But when you have games like 2014 and 2020 where the defense forced 5 Russell Wilson turnovers and 3 Tom Brady interceptions respectively, Rodgers was nowhere to be found when he was leaned on to do his part. And in 2016 and 2019, the defenses did suck. But Rodgers and the offense scored exactly 0 points combined across both first halves. Offense did nothing to help the defense whatsoever.
T7Steve
May 05, 2023 at 07:35 am
I think Gute has done as good a job as he could considering the circumstances.
I did lose respect for him for not quitting when Murphy took over his job and hamstringed him. I'm glad he didn't quit, because what other good GM prospect would work under this type of system. Teams with overzealous owners have a hard time competing on a regular basis.
Maybe Murphy IS standing back now. Hope it's not too late. If we can field a good team while working out of the cap mess, it will be a good start.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 09:20 am
A couple years ago I made a statement that the most valuable person associated with the Packers was not named Aaron Rodgers, but Gutey. Wasn't met well by a few but my opinion has never changed. Gutey is one of the best in the league and my opinion has never wavered. I love the fact he leaves no stone unturned to uncover talent. Constantly tinkering! He isn't afraid to go against popular opinion (i.e. Jordan Love, Gary, Lukas Van Ness, etc) and put his job security on the line. He is his own man and a free thinker. Love that about him and totally believe he will quickly turn the ship around. It will start with Jordan Love balling out this season!
Frankly, I believe Gutey hit a massive out of the ball park grand slam in this 2023 draft. I find I fall asleep peacefully with the thoughts of Love at QB throwing to all the offensive weapons that Gutey accumulated in 2022 & 2023. 😀
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 06:02 pm
Knocker! Had to laugh… “get a down vote or two did ‘ya?!!!”
Lol
I think Gutekunst hit big as well. Nothing proves out for years, but just studying who we drafted and signed UDFA further provides encouraging info on what they all might bring to the Pro-level table.
Dayummm son! There is one helluva lot to like under those limited constraints for us fans (without getting flamed!). Reading their resumes and profiles, stats, reviewing the film available. Wow.
Gotta say, much to like and not a whole lot to disappoint, other than lost crushes. There’s a lot of promise in this class.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 06, 2023 at 10:38 am
"Dayummm son! There is one helluva lot to like under those limited constraints for us fans (without getting flamed!). Reading their resumes and profiles, stats, reviewing the film available. Wow."
The thing is GG a fair amount of those commenting only read an article or two (maybe consensus board) on players & do not do the deep dive on players like some of us do. There are never guarantees on players but the research allows us to understand the decisions made by Gutey providing excitement on the selections. I am very optimistic with this draft and we will have a number of good players for years to come because of it.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:24 pm
Gute is the man and I'm not ashamed to admit. Some call Gute stupid but I prefer to call him bold, just like Ron Wolf and Teddy T. Fortune tends to favor the bold.
Boneman
May 05, 2023 at 07:46 am
I never could fathom why so many folks believed the Packers would draft JSN with their first pick. He was the best 'slot' receiver in a draft heavy with good slot receivers. I also never bought that we would draft a Tackle either as Gute has been stocking that cupboard for several years now and we should be comfortable with what we have at that position. For my part, I couldn't be happier with this draft. I like our 'weapons' that we have now. This team is going to surprise a lot of people...this year.
The whole notion of the Packers ignoring offensive weapons in the Rogers era is silly. Right now MVS, Lazard, St Brown, Randall Cobb and of course Devontae Adams are all playing for other teams and 'getting paid'! Throw in the best left tackle and two top running backs and AR 12 had plenty to work with. Let's not buy into the fiction national media people keep pedaling.
murf7777
May 05, 2023 at 07:51 am
Boneman, I totally agree, in fact you could say a Top 5 defense is a QB’s best friend. Just ask Tom Brady. The Packers tried hard for years to achieve that with Rodgers but it just didn’t happen. Absolutely, media driven. They get people to watch and sell advertisement by creating controversy.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 10:08 am
100% murf, on that Top 5 D being a QB’s best friend.
Despite that, gotta be able to score and move the chains. How did Belichick win those 6 rings?
1. He had great defensive players.
2. He always had a powerful, proven, clutch RB.
3. He used that RB liberally, in a balanced attack to help keep the pass rush dogs off the still able to walk Tom Brady.
Let’s hope LaFleur gives us a balanced attack like Belichick employed, both run & pass! Maybe, if we’re lucky, we see that Defense materialize into a quantifiable asset moving forward too.
That’s when we’ll start cooking with gas. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see it happen this year!
GregC
May 05, 2023 at 09:06 am
Agreed on JSN and the phony narrative about Rodgers lacking weapons, but I do not agree that the OT position is well-stocked. Bahktiari will probably be gone after this season, which leaves Nijman (if they keep him) and Zach Tom and maybe Elgton Jenkins if you slide him out to tackle again, but then you are losing an excellent guard in order to do that. I think that without Bahktiari, the OT position will be average at best and probably below average unless they find another really good one. I think they would've taken an OT in the first round this year if they felt the value was right, and I think it's the most likely position for them to take in the first round next year.
Rarescope
May 05, 2023 at 02:13 pm
"I think they would've taken an OT in the first round this year if they felt the value was right..."
Not to be a jerk but... that's stating the obvious. Value = talent * need. Less talent, less need, less value. Ergo, no 1st round tackle. Instead we get the Lucas Ness Monster, with whose drafting I was tickled pink. Normally I'm a "protect the QB so he can do his job effectively" proponent but the value just wasn't there this year for our team to draft for that.
GregC
May 05, 2023 at 06:20 pm
Not obvious at all, considering that I was replying to a post stating that the Packers were "never" going to draft an OT. You need to find better things to argue with people about.
murf7777
May 05, 2023 at 07:48 am
Good article and how it truly shows that Green Bay continues with certain principles that has made them a consistent winner for 30+ years. Yes, QB is the main reason, but other principles apply to their success.
#1 You must have a franchise QB…..keep drafting and developing them
#2 In the first round you normally draft the most important positions. QB, CB, EDGE
#3 Why draft a WR in the 1st round when you have great success in 2nd round….Also, see #2
#4 Draft multiple OL in most drafts
#5 Consistency with management and coaching staff. Very little turnover compared to the rest of the NFL. (Although, DC is an exception and needs changing) The best and most winning Franchises have little turnover in staff. Pittsburgh is a perfect example.
The only thing I could argue about that is drafting OT in 1st round. Although, the Packers have proven to draft them later with high level of success. They tend to draft OT and move them inside to fill guard and center positions.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 06:25 pm
murf! Have to laugh at myself. You’re spot on.
Earlier in pre-draft talks, I was thinking about why we don’t draft more pure OGs like Elgton Jenkins, Josh Sitton, TJ La…. ERRRRT!
Looked up Sitton & Lang… OTs!
Handsback
May 05, 2023 at 07:51 am
This is an old story so bear with me for a bit. Back in the day of Packer Chatters, there was a lady who posted under the name of Patty. She did some contract scouting jobs and always went to the Senior Bowl just to look at prospects. I remember the year when Aaron Rodgers was being drafted and I asked her who would she pick if the Pack had the first pick. She said Rodgers. I asked her was it wise to draft a 1st round guy and not play them right away. Her response was that most 1st round picks are made for the future. That these players will excel after getting NFL strong, or up to speed with their position knowledge. Obviously there are always exceptions, but rounds 2 onward was where these guys had maxed out their capabilities and could contribute immediately.
I had to think about what she said and all the QBs, WRs, and linemen taken in the first round did maybe ok, but had that big jump in year 2. So to get a guy like Gary, get him early and let him learn and get stronger so he can be that dominate player. Now there are always exceptions esp. in the first 10 picks where great player contribute immediately, but just wanted to pass on a different thought about selecting first round players.
Just MHO,
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 02:31 pm
I love this, Handsback, and I remember Patty well from PC. She was one of the really good ones.
Appreciate your sharing this, and, yes, very true.
stockholder
May 05, 2023 at 07:56 am
The sooner we see what Love is.
The sooner we'll see what Gute isn't.
I don't care who he drafted in this years draft.
It's the wasted picks to fill the positions.
And thats what doesn't seem right to me.
(Not to mention the third rd failures.)
A Gm who knows the beauty of late picks.
(And as TT said. It was his job to find them.)
Or a GM who buys what he thinks, to get us there.
I for one think they wasted Rodgers talent.
Whether it was drafting Defense or Weapons.
The failure since 2010 can't be put on the QB.
And thats just where we're going with Love.
If he fails; it will be another 10 years.
My point is; If TT and Wolf can build a Winner.
Why can't Gute do it without money??
The smart Gm knows how to use All his picks.
Sherman didn't. And I fear Gutey doesn't.
croatpackfan
May 05, 2023 at 08:27 am
Stop copying your old posts. It is boring...
stockholder
May 05, 2023 at 10:42 am
Fire Sale coming.
Is that boring enough for you.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 04:56 pm
I wonder how you will cope when this team gets back to its winning ways and your hero implodes in New York?
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 06:35 pm
He will have known that would happen all the time just as he did with Favre.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 09:19 am
If you could get over your obsession with Gute, we might actually agree on the general thrust of your frustrations. This franchise got lost when TT’s illness led to Murphy handing the reins to Ball, a numbers guy with no personnel background. By 2018, the league was laughing at our roster. We were so slow on O and so poor at many positions and depth challenged as well. We were so predictable and so clueless, MM was sacked, but that made no difference. Gute got us back in contention, but we blew that through STs, dubious coaching, tactics and preparedness, but the deeper roster hangover is still there.
We haven’t had a good back up QB since 2014. We haven’t had good WR depth either, or CB etc. that all evaporated after 2014. Gute’s tried to supplement but in ever tighter cap circumstances and late drafting, we’ve never got back. This year we might have started that. If we have and are successful, that’s a key part if positioning ourselves for success in future, whoever is at QB going forward. First though, we have to see if our coaches can deliver and also develop. That’s not under Gute’s control.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 12:02 pm
CW,
This is the closest I have seen someone mention which FO person was assisting Ted with personnel/draft in those later years.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 01:15 pm
It came out in the ructions in 2018 and I’ve never forgotten that admission. It was one of MM’s big triggers.
LeotisHarris
May 05, 2023 at 03:48 pm
"This franchise got lost when TT’s illness led to Murphy handing the reins to Ball, a numbers guy with no personnel background."
It's interesting how Ball is so easily granted that status, "a numbers guy," and thought of as having "no personnel background." Ball holds a Masters in Human Performance from the University of Missouri (1990) and started as an assistant strength and conditioning coach with KC. He was with the Chiefs for 10 years; the last two years in football operations as administrative assistant to HC Marty Schottenheimer.
Next stop, we see Russ jump to the Vikings for two years where he assisted with salary cap management and player contracts. That's something! From an assistant strength and conditioning coach to cap and contract dude in the blink of an eye. It's who ya know, ya know? Uhh, ya, couldn't Russ do that? He gets along with everybody, right?
Russ wandered from Minnesota to DC where he spent the 2001 season as director of football administration for Washington, His duties included managing the salary cap as well as team operations; as he oversaw the video, athletic training, equipment, strength and conditioning, and player development departments. Dan Snider at his finest. Alas, it was a short stay.
Russ headed south to NO, and along came the big break the ol' strength and conditioning coach was seeking. After a few warm-up seasons nodding and smiling at the right time, Russ was selected by the Saints to attend the 2005 NFL Managers Program at Stanford University's Executive Education Graduate School of Business. BOOM! NUMBERS GUY! Rumor has it, Russ did and extra 1-credit independent study on use of the voidable year contracts. Now Russ could talk salary cap hell with the best of them when The Ginger Hammer called all to New York to guard The Shield.
We know the rest. Our Numbers Guy arrived in Green Bay next to find his very own silo, and he set about moving the coconuts and reminding those who would listen to pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Not bad for a1981 graduate of the University of Central Missouri.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 06:34 pm
Whoosh!
Nice bit of background deep diving, LeotisHarris! That was great to read and know. Much appreciated!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:30 pm
You had me at "Ginger Hammer" 🤣
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 06, 2023 at 10:42 am
Damn Leotis!
That was fantastic!
Thank you!
My guess Ball will likely end up replacing Murphy in a couple of years.
croatpackfan
May 07, 2023 at 08:01 am
Nice resume. I only wonders why than Packers are at the brink of Salary Cap Hell. It must be because Russ Ball overthought his knowledge?
I have no objections on Russ Ball financial knowledge and his usage it for team benefits, but there is diffetence between financial expertise and running Personnel Department. Top financial manager might not excell as GM, as that is different kind of job, as GM is not the one who will excell in financial gymnastic. GMs job is much wider.
Thus, I'm all in to keep Russ Ball to handle finance and salary cap, but not him to take about everything what GM is doing (Peters' principle!).
If not otherwise, drafts from 2017 & 2018 showed he would not be the good choice for GM job (if Coldworld is right).
coolhand
May 05, 2023 at 11:11 am
So stockholder, after the SB win in 2011, and the Packers went 15-1 the following year with the same team, why did they get blown out in the first round of the playoffs? Was that because the team didn't draft more weapons for AR?
Johnblood27
May 05, 2023 at 03:03 pm
Joe Philbins kid taking a cold water dive sure f'd up the heads of that team.
I blame the mental state of the team following the tragedy.
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 11:37 am
Wolf brought in Four free agents to fill out the Defensive front along with Mike Prior, Eugene Robinson, Keith Jackson,Don Beebe and Bad Moon to Win His SB. Ted snagged Woodson, Pickett, Ryan Grant and Howard Green to get over the hump, but mostly his draft picks did the job. The 2017 disaster of King over T.J.Watt I suspect was not on Ted. This set the franchise backward. The Perry deal was a flop and he went into panic mode snagging both of the Smiths for big bucks and drafting Gary. Neither free agent could hold the Edge when it mattered in the Games that count. The 2019 first round was loaded for D line and Two should have gone there and saved some CAP. Due Diligence.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 12:06 pm
Every QB knew Z - Smith was so concerned about sacks & he would rush out of control up the field outside the OT they could rush inside right by him for big yards & a first down. Always drove me crazy!
RCPackerFan
May 05, 2023 at 08:04 am
When watching how this draft unfolded I felt GB did the right thing in how they drafted players. I thought it worked out the best way, them taking the pass rusher in the first round and then WR in the 2nd. The way the draft fell, after the Packers drafted Van Ness, 6 pass rushers came off the board before their next pick. After the Packers passed on WR, there were 5 WR's that went before they selected Reed.
We will find out in the future how they truly did, but I felt that they made the right choice going the direction that they did.
The packers clearly have a few positions they put a premium on. Pass rusher is clearly one of them. These are his Gutey's first 2 round positional draft picks. 4-DB, 2-Edge, 2-OL, 2-WR, 1-QB, 1-RB, 1-LB, 1-DL, 1-TE.
Gutey has put a value high in the draft of getting DB's. He also has put more emphasis on Edge, OL, and WR's.
While GB hasn't drafted WR in the first round with Gutey, I feel like they will if the right one is there. It has been known that he was wanting Jefferson and Aiyuk. They were drafted before he had a chance to take them. Last year he tried traded up into the first to get Watson. Just get the trade done.
I feel like last year was Gutey's best draft as a GM. While he was masterful in his first draft, moving back to get a first round pick and moving back up to get Alexander, his best draft as a whole I feel was last years. This years draft may top that. Obviously we have to see the players first, but I really like the players they came away with and how they project to fit onto our team.
Take Reed for example. He doesn't have to come in and be our number 1 WR. He won't be asked to come in and play 50 snaps a game. They will most likely having him playing the slot, and will have him in the 15-25 snaps a game most likely to start the year. They will find good roles for these players and if they show up more, they will expand their roles.
croatpackfan
May 05, 2023 at 08:37 am
You wrote a lot what I'm agreed with. I have only one "fear" - how good are our OC (pardon, HC) and DC. For HC we know that his hand was tight because he had GM/HC/OC all over him. And the one who changed called plays at the last moments that often left younger players confused.
Regarding DC - "This years draft may top that. Obviously we have to see the players first, but I really like the players they came away with and how they project to fit onto our team." This is the problem. Packers have several press corners at high quality (Jaire, Rasul & Stokes). What Joe did? He played them out of position in zone scheme. Their best games were when Packers played man not zone. So there is the huge doubt will Joe Barry finally find out what is the best positions and schemes for his player to excell.
I have full confidence in Rich Bisaccia regarding this question.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 12:12 pm
RC,
I agree pretty much with everything you state. However, what I liked best was this "but I really like the players they came away with and how the project to fit onto our team".
Too often people tend to forget players are sort of like a puzzle & how they fit with the other players around them.
MooPack
May 05, 2023 at 08:27 am
Maybe the Packers should start putting better research and resources into coaching.
bottlefliper
May 05, 2023 at 08:42 am
So we should draft a coach in the first round next year?
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 11:52 am
Denver did for Payton. Tampa gave a One pick to Al Davis for Gruden and won a SB. It happens...
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 05:20 pm
Except Denver hasnt won anything with Payton yet. And Sean Payton has an identicle resume to Mccarthy. So basically the Broncos gave up a 1st round pick for the same caliber of coach the Packers fired. Should we trade for Mccarthy?
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 09:32 am
I have been saying for a while that this year will show what LaFleur is. His Barry decision on the heals of his ST ones before Bissacia was imposed casts a glaring light on that aspect.
Without Rodgers, with a young roster, how he prepares for the season and how his O looks and his tactical and in game adjustments will all be squarely on him, as will player personnel usage. We are going to see what we have, there’s no chance to avoid seeing if LaFkeur brings plusses to the table on O or if Barry and other hires are able to deliver on the potential of their units.
This could very clearly show that LaFleur doesn’t have a valid claim to his title or it could show that he was a talent frustrated till now. Even if his offensive brilliance shines, it’s possible that his ability to select and manage coaches will undermine his credibility as more than an OC.
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 11:45 am
Dbl Reverse on Fourth and One, midfield. Fake Punt on your 30 yard line. I rest my case.
Johnblood27
May 05, 2023 at 03:07 pm
damning evidence.
opposing council just got waylaid!
LeotisHarris
May 05, 2023 at 03:54 pm
Indeed. A true Perry Mason moment.
Johnblood27
May 05, 2023 at 08:16 pm
name was Hamilton Burger for a reason...
cdoemel
May 05, 2023 at 10:21 pm
Other than JoeB I think we’re fine.
Packer_Fan
May 05, 2023 at 08:56 am
Bruce Irons, good job of explaining that draft picks is a risky business. Trading down gave us a better chance if hitting on a eventual starter. That was good for Gute.
As I said in a previous post, three or four starters or better in a draft is good. Hitting on more is a great draft. I think Gute has gotten better at picking talent in the last few drafts.
Fans thinking about if/comes is just wishful thinking. So many out of control factors. Enjoy the progress ad it happens.
dobber
May 05, 2023 at 09:17 am
"As I said in a previous post, three or four starters or better in a draft is good. "
Just add the word "quality" to your assertion and I'm there with you.
Too often JAGs become starters by attrition--the depth chart shallows and they rise to the top by default.
HarryHodag
May 05, 2023 at 09:15 am
I agree with Bruce, but aside from his article I'm always curious why much of the fan base(and the national sports media dopes) are fixated on the idea that a wide receiver will cure whatever(or not) ails the Packers. It's just amazing.
This isn't flag football. NFL football also has running backs, linemen, etc. It's a total team game.
The folks that were disappointed they didn't draft a receiver have forgotten the Packers have two(maybe three) young receivers already on the roster, all of whom looked pretty good at times last year. They had a horrible roster hole at tight end(two drafted) safety(one drafted) defensive line and edge(multiple draftees). They even drafted a really good wide receiver not that many picks into the second round and another one later. So if they didn't get the kid from Ohio State(he looks frail to me but that's an aside) the draft is a bust?
You can hate Gute(wrong) but he's kept the team competitive.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:34 pm
Because qbs and receivers are exciting. Casuals dont care about matchups, blocking, scheme, etc. The game within the game matters not to them. They just want to see the guys who throw the ball and the guys who catch the ball. So thats what the NFL emphasizes hence the endless rule changes that keep making life easier for them.
Booner
May 05, 2023 at 09:28 am
Love will decide Gute's future with the Packers you don't move up in the draft to take a QB in the first Rd when you have an MVP QB on your roster already! Love needs to be the man. If Love is the man which I hope he is why the hell didn't you trade Rodgers last year?
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 09:45 am
That’s the general wisdom, but I don’t think the league or the Packers see it that way. Since Murphy will be gone soon, the view around the league is relevant, as his successor is likely to be from within or a person within the league. How this roster does will obviously be a factor, but the league is well aware of the peculiarities of recent years in Lambeau and who has really called the shots on major issues.
UdderApocowlipse
May 05, 2023 at 04:55 pm
I'm curious, what makes you think Murphy's successor will be found within the league? It isn't that I disagree especially, I was just wondering if that view was informed from any specific evidence?
We all realize that the Green Bay Packers is a unique organization when compared to teams found around the league. Wasn't Murphy an athletic director at Northwestern before taking the job with the GB organization?
Because of the unique structure of the organization, compared to other teams in the NFL, I don't know that a an appropriate leader is going to be plucked from somewhere around the league. The unique structure calls for an individual with a unique understanding of the principles which shape(d) the organization's history and culture.
I don't imagine the league develops stewards of organizations such as ours. I think Murphy's replacement will be currently employed as an AD somewhere as someone in that position might contain the qualities and experiences being searched for in the next steward of the Green Bay Packers.
I agree that finding a successor in-house is a likely possibility, as well.
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 07:45 am
GMs are typically drawn from league personnel people.
Fubared
May 05, 2023 at 10:14 am
IMO his goal is to please management with cheap deals then build a real contender. First, he has spend nothing on free agents who can come in and make a difference. All of those guys passed on GB's offers over the past couple of years because they wanted to be paid in money.
Second, he seems to pick for a small area of schools. Iowa seems to be on his mind and they didnt do much last year. Then it was GA, then bama. He gets fixated on one school like he looks at a few and makes all his decisions based on them. Thus, he pays very little for scouting.
Third, I've always known the mystery of why the pack had all those injuries that others teams didnt:
we and that includes Thompson, paid little attention to the injury status and thus we ended up with car crash dummies on our team. Our two new TE's both have injury histories and were passed over by everyone but us. Good luck with that.
No Gutt gets a C- from me over the years.
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 12:00 pm
Medicate.
CheesedDeadHead
May 05, 2023 at 12:59 pm
"No Gutt gets a C- from me over the years."
I bet he's losing sleep over that.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:37 pm
Is that why they've handed out no less than 5 cap-shattering, top of the market contracts to their own homegrown players in the last few years? Rodgers, Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Jaire, and Clark have all gotten monster deals for their positions. Its hard to pay outside free agents top dollar when theyre too busy paying their own homegrown stars all the money.
LeotisHarris
May 05, 2023 at 09:46 pm
"Iowa seems to be on his mind and they didnt do much last year. Then it was GA, then bama."
Damn, man, your detective skills are paying big dividends. Those close to Gute report he's a huge fan of the classic Broadway musical The Music Man, Hoagy Carmichael, *and* Lynryd Skynyrd. Gute's draft strategy has been hiding in plain sight all this time.
renzocapone
May 10, 2023 at 07:15 am
You're wrong, friend.
The highest-paid contracts are with the best players who have been playing for more than one season. And no one is immune to injuries, such a period can happen at any time in any team.
PASSdaRELISH
May 05, 2023 at 11:00 am
Although I am mostly optimistic about the 2022 & 2023 draft class’s, the Packers are being leapfrogged by the rest of the NFC NORTH because GM GUTE completely whiffed on 3 out of his first 4 drafts. I hope the last two drafts are a sign of drafts to come.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 12:17 pm
Pass,
Apples to Oranges!
Without spending the time researching I think you should take into account where the Packers were drafting annually each round vs the likes of Chicago, and Detroit. Then take into account how many first round & second round draft choices these teams had vs the Packers. The Vikings were blessed to have Jefferson literally fall into their lap at 'about' #22 in round 1.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:40 pm
I disagree. Packers won the same amount of games as the Lions last year despite their worst qb play since Brett Hundley. Even at their worst, Packers still won the same amount of games. Jordan Love is and will be exponentially better than Rodgers was last year and, by proxy, so will this offense. Try as they might, Lions will always be little brother.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 06, 2023 at 10:45 am
Baloney,
"Jordan Love is and will be exponentially better than Rodgers was last year and, by proxy, so will this offense."
I like this and have been saying the same thing for some time now. After this draft even with the youngsters at every skilled position I believe this to be true.
greengold
May 06, 2023 at 11:05 am
Me too. 100%.
I think this O is going to fly. Bigtime.
Will it take them a while? Hell yeah. But, halfway through the season, I think they’re really going to start to cook.
Early? I could see them win many battles with unscouted looks. We’ll finally see a more balanced run/pass, with a ton of explosive plays via play action.
This 2023 Packers team has a chance to surprise many. Imagine the weight lifted off the players! This could be really fun to see.
I think our record will be better than 10-7, and that will all be pure gravy the rest of the way. Shock the world? I’m in.
Just look at the young talent brought in. DuBose, our last R7 pick is no slouch. Neither is Wicks, not Reed, nor Melton. That doesn’t even count Musgrave & Kraft at TE!
Jordan Love’s gotta love it. Think he has something he wants to show the NFL?
Wow. I’m all-in!
splitpea1
May 05, 2023 at 11:23 am
"...This is how champions draft." We'll see. That's the whole point of being of a Packers fan. It's Gute's team now, as the only players left from the previous regime are A. Jones, Bakh, and Clark--and he should be judged on how quickly he can bring a title back to Titletown.
Gute is a competent GM, no doubt, but a championship GM? Does his sometimes high risk/high reward draft strategy always work? Can he fill out the rest of the team with solid if not spectacular players? That will require a little patience to find out. I think he needed a little nudge from Rich B. to acquire the proper players for special teams
MLF has to give him some help here. He'll have to show he's in firm control of the team and willing to do whatever it takes to ensure the defensive talent Gute has provided him plays to their full potential--no excuses. Our offense may be a little herky jerky at times, but our defense should (didn't we say this last season?) evolve much into a formidable unit in a much shorter time span.
Qoojo
May 05, 2023 at 12:44 pm
It's about the numbers driving rarity and competition. There are fewer people that can do something in a critical position, then it makes sense to prioritize them. The people that want WRs and RBs in first round do not understand this.
I do find it disingenuous to attribute this drafting model as the driver of success. I think lucking out on two HOF QBs is a bigger driver. Gute's early draft and FA strategy was based on an aging HOF QB and win now, not to separate himself from TT. Because of the decisions made in the past few years, Packers are in a salary cap hell. They have no alternative to draft and develop.
They only issue I have with Gute is not getting rid of AR last year when his price and value was highest. "It's better to get rid of a guy a year early than too late" is the saying.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 09:47 pm
"Lucking out". First of all, Packers didnt draft Favre. Falcons did, in the 2nd round. He was a drunk stuck in Jerry Glanville's doghouse (3rd string) before Ron Wolf rescued him. And despite that, Wolf had to overpay for him by giving up a 1st round pick for him. Then it took 2 whole seasons of tutelage from Holmgren and 37 combined interceptions before Favre finally turned the corner. As for Rodgers, he was raw, immature, and had the stigma of being a "Jeff Tedford Cal system qb" which is why he fell in the first place. It took every bit of 3 seasons for him to grow up. Thompson didnt even need a qb per se but he chose to bet on the talent and upside then gave him the runway he needed to develop. Again, not lucky. Both additions were bold moves made by bold men that almost no fan would have made. Luck had nothing to do with it. If Packers dont add Favre or Rodgers, we likely wouldnt remember either of their names as they wouldve become nothing more that what-could-have-been stories in the scrapbook of NFL history.
Qoojo
May 06, 2023 at 10:48 am
I never said they drafted favre. Without a doubt, the packers are lucky to have had two HOF QBs in a row. That luck allowed them to have some crappy drafts and remain competitive, ignore FA path to getting players, and at times, almost ignore the offensive side. Also, Wolf was extremely lucky that Favre trade panned out to the degree that it did.
Sugadon84
May 06, 2023 at 06:59 pm
I am a 38 year old fan from Louisiana. I fell in love with Farve and rode with him until he threw it to Webster. I was hesitant on the Rodgers pick cuz I was still all in with 4. When he came in against Dallas and balled out I was convinced. I say that to say this, I’m a black man in the south. I don’t care if he took the vax or if he is a jerk when he speaks sometimes. 12 was OUR guy! Asshole or not he gave us a lot of great memories. For the life of me I can’t understand how most white fans won’t critic Gutey but will rip the QB who gave us so many great memories! I believe the love pick should have been a DT or linebacker after SF ran thru the defense. I also believe that he has missed ALOT in these past drafts! Yea he hit on a couple first rounds like Gary and Jaire and Jenkins in the second but who else? Like this man has been inept in certain aspects of his job. Now if Love wins a Super Bowl in 5 years I will eat crow and say he was right! But pump the brakes on all this Gutey love cuz he hasn’t fielded a top 5 Defense yet and all he does is draft Defensive players with his top picks!