Ball, Gutey Doing Outstanding Job of Limiting Cap Damage

So far so good at manipulating cap without breaking up the band.

So the Packers pull off a shocker by re-signing star running back Aaron Jones just hours before he was to hit free agency as the top ball carrier on the market?

 

Wait a minute.  Wasn't this the team that was doomed to salary cap hell?  The team that was hopelessly over the projected cap after dishing out huge new deals to Kenny Clark and David Bakhtiari?  The team that was going to be forced to cut several starters in addition to watching core players walk into free agency?  Wasn't that supposed to be the fate of the 2021 Green Bay Packers?

 
Well, here as free agency week begins, the Packers have not cut a single preferred starter.  They have re-signed their Pro Bowl running back to a long term deal, and they are widely believed to still have the resources to pursue an impact free agent.  What the heck happened?
 
Russ Ball and Brian Gutekunst happened, that's what.  So far, they have done a masterful job at minimizing the damage caused by being nearly $30 million dollars over the eventual cap.  They are doing what many of us fans, myself included, did not think possible.  They are reconciling the salary cap without breaking up the band.  They have chosen restructure over player cuts as their chief weapon.
 
As things currently stand, the only core player the Packers stand to lose is center Corey Linsley.  That's a significant loss, but Linsley will be 30 years old,  has had some injuries, and Green Bay is positioned to adequately replace him. 
 
Aside from that, the Packers have cut linebacker Christian Kirksey, who had lost his starting job to Krys Barnes.  They released tackle Rick Wagner, who started several games because of injuries along the line, but was technically a back-up to Bakhtiari and Billy Turner, and was seriously pondering retirement anyway.  They chose not to tender quarterback Tim Boyle, to enable first round pick Jordan Love to move into the number two signal caller slot.  They waived reserve fullback John Lovett after Dominique Dafney played better than expected late in the year.  Running back Jamaal Williams will not be re-signed, but his loss is more emotional than tactical.  Williams is beloved as a teammate and a locker room character, but AJ Dillon may well prove to be an upgrade at number two ball carrier.
 
That's about it.  So far, that's the extent of the damage. There's more work to be done.  Green Bay still has to do something with Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard, Marcedes Lewis, Lane Taylor, Tyler Ervin, Raven Green, Montravius Adams, Will Redmond and Chandon Sullivan.  But none of those figure to be high dollar transactions if the team chooses to bring any of them back.  It looks like starting cornerback Kevin King will be allowed to test the free agent waters.  King had his moments, but the Packers may be able to do better by signing a free agent corner, or addressing the position in the draft.  
 
The Packers have not found it necessary to part ways with starters Preston Smith, Dean Lowry or Tyler Lancaster.  They have minimized player losses by restructuring both Preston and Za'darius Smith, Adrian Amos, Devin Funchess and Billy Turner.  Further deals with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are probably not far off.
 
The Packers are taking a calculated risk with all the restructures, which involve pushing significant money into the next few years.  They are counting on projected cap hikes, as revenue returns to normal this year with the waning of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, and then new TV contracts kicking in after 2022.  Virtually all other teams are doing the same.
 
But that's a concern for some other time.  For now, the 2021 Green Bay Packers stand to look surprisingly similar to the back-to-back 13-3 teams we have been watching.  It's still a bit early in the offseason game to grade Gutekunst and Ball, but I, for one, am extremely pleased and pumped at the way things have gone thus far.
 
 

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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9 points
 

Comments (26)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 15, 2021 at 07:02 am

Nice article. It is very persuasive. Gute and Ball need to find $20M to $30M more. I approve of their apparent decision to keep the team as intact as possible, that is the proper philosophy for a team with back-to-back 13-3 seasons.

The way they handled the Preston Smith situation was decent. Preston had to know a pay cut was necessary. He gets the chance to more than earn that money back. When it becomes clear how much he gets back for 6 sacks, I will know better how to grade the job Gute and Ball did. Converting $6.5M in not guaranteed cash to a guaranteed signing bonus is in the player's favor, as is moving $3M of his 2022 salary to a 2022 roster bonus due on the third league day.

Gute and Ball's best work might have been on Funchess. That's hard to grade since I still don't know what they did. I suspect Funchess paid back some of his $1M signing bonus in return for a guarantee of base salary in roughly the same amount, but maybe there is a straight pay cut somewhere in there.

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Packer_Fan's picture

March 15, 2021 at 10:43 am

This shows with the Jones and P. Smith deals that the players want to play in Green Bay. That is a good sign for the organization as a whole.

8 points
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Packer_Fan's picture

March 15, 2021 at 07:01 am

All I can say is wow. Unusual for the Packers to do what they are doing. Sure looks like going all in. Can't wait to see the next restructure or extension. Then go after a CB, DL and maybe a WR. Go Pack

7 points
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Packer_Fan's picture

March 15, 2021 at 07:01 am

All I can say is wow. Unusual for the Packers to do what they are doing. Sure looks like going all in. Can't wait to see the next restructure or extension. Then go after a CB, DL and maybe a WR. Go Pack

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DoretheaLafarga's picture

March 15, 2021 at 07:04 am

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PeteK's picture

March 15, 2021 at 08:34 am

Some very bizarre advertisements lately. hahahahaha

4 points
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Since'61's picture

March 15, 2021 at 08:45 am

Hopefully the Packers are going all in while Rodgers is still playing at a high level as he did in 2020. Since they are pushing significant numbers into 2022 and 2023 we're probably looking at a massive rebuild after 2022. If Love proves he can play the rebuild obviously would be built around him. If not then we're rebuilding the QB position as well.

But we can worry about that when the time comes. For now 2021 is starting well. Let's see what else Gute and Ball come up with as we go through this offseason. But, so far so good. Thanks, Since '61

3 points
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Dragon5's picture

March 15, 2021 at 10:14 am

Arod is signed thru 2023, with potential out next year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

2025 (SNAKE) will be his enemy year. Last SNAKE year bit Arod with the clavicle injury hosting da Bears missing the next 7 games, but in true NFC North futile fashion, he returned for wk 17 and we eked out another NFC North title with a paltry 8-7-1 record. Fond memories of that game as a friend from my college years was vacationing with his family in San Diego, and we were able to watch the game in a PACKED sports bar on the Pacific Beach strip. The kicker...he's a die hard Bears fan :)

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Fabio's picture

March 15, 2021 at 05:37 pm

Greetings ... at '61
I remembered that when Brady was in the Patriots they too, in the last years of his contract, were tight with his cost and invested in big Ds (actually I remember a few seasons where NE had bad D).
If Brady now plays well over 40 (and clearly not on the same salary) then Rodgers I think he can play at a high level for at least another 4 seasons, but Green Bay has to build a great D.
I personally will always take Rodgers on Love.
I'm afraid we'll only realize how good Arod was when he's gone.
In spite of everything I will be ready to cheer for Love too
Go Pack Go
Greetings from Italy

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dobber's picture

March 15, 2021 at 08:52 am

"So far, they have done a masterful job at minimizing the damage caused by being nearly $30 million dollars over the eventual cap."

I suppose it depends on your perspective...salary cap management over the longer term is a zero sum game, and the "sum" is a moving target. They're not minimizing the damage, they're just moving it into the future: eventually, the cap will get you. The Packers are gambling that the 2020 ARod will be the 2021 (and likely 2022) ARod, and that the 2017-2019 ARod is in the rearview. They've decided to buy the window...even after it appeared they'd mostly closed the window last off-season and drafted a QB of the future, and the OL pieces to begin turning that group over...add that on top of a 2019 draft class that's looking stronger as time passes. This gives me some hope that when the piper needs to be paid, we won't be looking at the Packers of the 70s and 80s.

They're ahead of the Vikings and Bears at this point: those teams started buying the window without restocking their depth--Chicago lost that ability in the Mack deal and guessed wrong on Trubisky. If they deal for a Wilson or Watson, they'll be an empty franchise in two years and doomed to suck for a long time. Minnesota is peeling off starters and restocking all at once. If they hit the jackpot on youth, it might be a quick rebuild (but they'll have to find a QB). If not, they could be bad for awhile.

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Coldworld's picture

March 15, 2021 at 09:54 am

If one isn’t going to cut Rodgers I think one has to gamble on him being elite. I suspect that this is more a gamble on future TV revenue based on a belief that the core of the roster that they are protecting is good enough to justify keeping it together and building around it with limited FA ammunition during the Rodgers window.

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Minniman's picture

March 15, 2021 at 11:19 am

One factor aiding Rodgers (and Brady) are the rule changes around protecting the QB. It's now nigh on sacrilegious to touch a QB in the pocket, near the sideline or sliding after a sneak.

These changes play to the strengths of the strategy of retaining an aging QB as it's going to promote their career longevity and play to their strength of playing "smarter, not harder".

So it makes sense to keep the cerebral QB that can diagnose defenses, as well as throw accurately and powerfully - and eke out the odd QB scamper or sneak when defenses get lazy.

As Brees and Eli proved, the real benchmark for when a modern QB should hang up the cleats is when the arm strength prevents the deep ball. Luckily for Rodgers, he still has that, in spades. He's also pretty meticulous with his pre-season prep too.

5 points
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flackcatcher's picture

March 15, 2021 at 03:53 pm

Well, at least we all know how the Packers define "all in". Two more years for this core roster group. Can Rodgers hold off Father Time like Ball and Gute beat back Cap Man. (at least for this year)

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HankScorpio's picture

March 15, 2021 at 05:02 pm

No doubt that the cap is a zero sum game. They did shift a lot of 2021 $$ to 2022 and beyond. If they can stay on top of things in the next few drafts, they will pay the piper by replacing some vets with young talent. I thought that was tee'd up perfectly with Preston Smith and Rashan Gary but they gave Preston another go. Not so with Corey Linsley, They took 3 swings at replacing him in the 6th round last year and appeat to have connected with at least one.

As of today, they have 6 guys with cap hits north of $10 mil in 2022. They have 28 guys under contract with $18 mil in cap space. They will have 2 draft classes to add to the under contract list without a ton of cap expense---taking them up to 40-45 guys. Davante Adams and Jaire Alexander are not under contract. So we're all lined up for the same dance again nest year. But that bridge is ahead. No need to cross it now

2 points
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Guam's picture

March 15, 2021 at 10:16 am

Happily stunned that the Packers are keeping both Preston and Jones. Clearly Gute and company have decided to go all in on Rodgers remaining years and I am delighted. There will be the Cap Man to pay at some point (Dobber did a great job of illuminating that about two comments further up), but I very much would like to see the Packers and Rodgers grab at least one more Super Bowl in the next few years. If we have to suffer some during the early Love era to accomplish that, I am okay with the decision.

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Minniman's picture

March 15, 2021 at 11:42 am

I don't think that Love is a guaranteed to replace Rodgers...... yet.

He still has to prove that he's better than Rodgers before he'll be given the reigns. Gute even intimated as much this off-season with his comment re Rodgers "we aren't stupid, we know what we have in Rodgers".

As I posted above, owing to QB protection rules, we are going to enter an era in football where even moderate-to-good QB's will have extended careers - providing that they excel at the mental side of the game (sure, they do need to have athleticism, arm strength and accuracy - but the right defense diagnosis and resulting right ball, to the right player, at the right time will be coveted - and that's only going to come with experience and mental capacity).

I won't be surprised that if Love demonstrates that he has these traits that he spends almost his entire rookie contract behind Rodgers (fixing up his mechanics and sharpening his mental game). After all, he'll be 25 at that point in time, with potentially a further 12-15 year starting career ahead of him after that.

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splitpea1's picture

March 15, 2021 at 10:53 am

There's definitely more work to be done, especially regarding Tonyan.

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TheBigCheeze's picture

March 15, 2021 at 11:43 am

now get the best available DB in the 1st round....

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Minniman's picture

March 15, 2021 at 12:04 pm

So it looks like Gute and Russ Ball are almost complete in sorting out the contracts for the existing playing roster (only Rodgers, Z and Adams to go).

Now on to this years draft.

Regarding this years upcoming draft, sure it would be awesome to hit on CB\DL\ILB - but I think that Gute needs to turn his attentions to restocking special teams with the day 3 options and UDFA.

ST got increasingly picked on by opposing teams at the end of the season.

We all lamented the issues on ST:
- No legitimate threats in the return game when teams punted to the Packers was a field position killer

- Then on the flipside, increasing opportunities to attack when the Packers punted and defended poorly - due to both JK Scott's extreme inaccuracy, the absence of a legitimate gunner and poor lane\zone discipline for chasers.

All these things contributed to regular field position being flipped on the Packers and extra burden being put on the Offense and Defense.

I know I bang-on about the Patriots a lot, but they do ST consistently well. I hope that Gute gives the new ST coordinator a fair chance with players that he can mold.

0 points
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PatrickGB's picture

March 15, 2021 at 12:08 pm

I am glad that we were able to keep the players we signed and restructured. Yet The team is still over the cap by what seems to be a lot. These next few days are going to be real interesting.

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Fabio's picture

March 15, 2021 at 05:02 pm

Even with all the possible renovations / extensions that we will soon have to do (Adams? Rodgers? ...) I fear that we will not acquire any FA to fill the holes in CB, ILB, OL, ST (if not some low cost for depth).
So let's postpone everything to the draft once again ....
I keep saying that if we want to go with Rodgers we have to invest heavily in D to make it elite.
Hopefully at the end of the season we will not be here to talk about the same problems again
However my faith will never collapse
Go Pack Go
Greetings from Italy

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Bearmeat's picture

March 15, 2021 at 12:24 pm

I'm really pleasantly surprised we managed to keep Jones. Everyone else has to be gone. Maybe not Sullivan and probably not Tonyan and possibly now Lewis. All small (monetary) potatoes though.

I'd really like to see them sign a running mate for Clark. Preferably someone who is stout at the point of attack, but can't rush the passer, thus making their cap figure lower... maybe an older CB too...

3 points
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Packers0808's picture

March 15, 2021 at 01:36 pm

It seems one surety for this team is a run stopper along with Clark on D line and good solid running mate with Alexander! Hope these can be found in FA or draft! ST anything hopefully would be an improvement except Mr Mason!

2 points
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greengold's picture

March 15, 2021 at 03:56 pm

I like what they've done so far. Great to have Turner, Preston and Amos restructured. Za'Darius soon to follow, helping the Aaron Jones re-sign. These are all great players, ones that I'm really happy the Packers are moving forward with into 2021. Quite surprised we are able to keep Jones.

Looking ahead into this draft with ZERO expectations. The Packers have immediate needs at starting CB, RT, & ILB. That's pretty damned good, when you consider the cupboard is not bare at all 3 of those positions.

WR and DT/DE would be solid adds this draft, but not as dire needs this season, knowing we will have Funchess and Snacks back - both bargain signings. Saying that, they probably pop those two positions straight away...

Looks like Gutey & Ball have done a great job with this cap, and what appears to be a lot more flexibility on hand if needed via Davante Adams/Aaron Rodgers restructures. I can't wait to see how they assemble the pieces for 2021, and hopefully, a more legit run at the SB.

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Packers0808's picture

March 15, 2021 at 04:16 pm

Linsley gone, Chargers paid him really big money, has become highest league center in pay!

2 points
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greengold's picture

March 15, 2021 at 04:24 pm

Yeah, sadly we can't keep them all. The NFL's top rated C was going to get paid big. I think they will wind up keeping Tonyan. Lazard will probably cost them some dough too. Glad to know they've got remaining flexibility.

3 points
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