Around the NFC North: Offseason Preview

How will the North teams reload this offseason? 

After disappointing seasons for each team in the NFC North, it's time to move on and start planning the future. Let's go through each team and do a quick evaluation of the current roster and thenlook at how much cap space and draft capital they have to improve next year. 

Chicago Bears

The Bears' roster is rough. The defense had one starter with a PFF grade over 70, safety Eddie Jackson who graded out as the 13th-best safety despite having the 7th-highest contract. Jackson, safety Jaquan Brisker linebacker Jack Sanborn, Corner Jaylon Johnson, and maybe corner Kyler Gordon are the only defenders who will likely be on this team in a few years. Sanborn was a rookie UDFA linebacker (from Wisconsin) who flashed in several games, Johnson had a down year, and Gordon didn't even grade out in the top 100 among corners. 

The offense isn't much better. Tevin Jenkins, drafted to lay tackle and then almost traded after one season, was one of the best guards in the league and Justin Fields was a true game-changer as a runner. Otherwise, there's a whole lot of meh. Equanimeous St. Brown is the number 2 WR and bust Chase Claypool is the number 3. Running back David Montgomery could be on the way out as his contract is up after this season. 

The Bears have one of the sparsest rosters in the league, so it's a good thing they have a ton of capital to rebuild. 

Cap Space and Draft Capital

The Bears have an insane $90 million plus in cap space. Depending on how they structure contracts, they could potentially sign a mid-range free agent at every single position of need (remember there are like 17 of those). The problem is that there aren't many quality free agents likely to be available. Look at PFF's list, The Bear's top targets at crucial positions could be Allen Lazard, Lavonte David, Mike McGlinchey, Marcus Davenport, and Ethan Pocic. Talk about a whole lot of meh. The Bears could unload a ton of cash on all of these JAGs and improve to 6 wins next year and then what? They become progress stoppers with too much-guaranteed money to cut a few years from now? It's not a great position. 

As far as draft capital goes, the Bears lucked out and ended up with the first overall pick. That probably makes up for setting their second-round pick on fire in a trade for Chase Claypool. After that the team has seven more picks, including the Ravens' second, two 4ths and two 5ths. There's plenty of ammunition to get some more actually NFL players on the field but likely not enough to make more than marginal improvements next season. 

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings' roster is similar in some ways to the Bears'. Two of their three corners had PFF grades below 65 and the third is like 50 years old. At safety, Bynum is bad and Smith is even older than Patrick Peterson. At linebacker Jordan Hicks had a typical year for him (just OK), and Eric Kendricks had the worst season of his career. On offense, KJ Osborn and Adam Thielen are bad, Kirk Cousins is bad like 70% of the time, and TJ Hockenson isn't close to worth the draft pick and contract the team will end up giving up for him. 

The difference between the two teams is the stars. Edges Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith are one of the top 5 pairs in the league when they're on. Four of the team's offensive linemen are top 10 at their position. Dalvin Cook could go for 200 yards any week. Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the league and it's not even an argument anymore. 

The Vikings are one of the most top heavy teams in the league and it shows. In close games, those stars can pull out wins, but against great balanced teams, they get their ass kicked. The team needs to make a decision this off-season. Do they try to reload and give it another shot next year? Do they dump Za'Darius, Harrison Smith, Kendricks, and Cook and start the rebuild now? 

Cap Space and Draft Capital

Dumping Za'Darius may be a foregone conclusion at this point. The former Packer was a fan favorite the first 8 weeks of the season before turning into a massive disappointment the second half of the year with several no-shows. The team has -$21 million in cap space and letting Za'Darius go would save more than $13.5 million. This is the problem with loading up on aged stars. The Vikings have basically no space now to try to fill out their roster with more depth and in the draft they have the 23rd overall pick and then no second-round pick. They had the worst defense in the league last year and fired the DC. If they bring in Brian Flores now, what's he gonna do with this roster? How can he run his cover 0/1 scheme with no corners and no ammo to get some? If they hire another guy to run the Fangio scheme, how are they going to get pressure without blitzing? On offense, who is going to be the second target in the pass game? Thielen is washed and KJ Osborne is good once a month. 

It's not a good picture for Vikings fans right now. The team went all in on a Kirk Cousins led roster and is capped out. 

Detroit Lions

Lions fans are the only ones in the division with legitimate optimism going into next season. The team won 8 of their last 10 games, had a top offense with Jared Goff at QB, and has reason to expect the defense to improve. Of course, the defense isn't exactly filled with world-beaters right now. Rookie Aidan Hutchinson was the clear best performer and safety Tracy Walker was the only other defender with a good PFF grade and he did it in under 150 snaps. If the Lions don't take Anthony Richardson in the first, don't be surprised if they pull a Lions and spend every draft pick on the defense. 

The offense is in better shape. The Sun God is a top-ten WR, Jameson Williams has top-ten potential, and some combination of DJ Chark or free agent signing could round up a pretty sound WR corps next season. The o-line is great and D'Andre Swift took a step forward. The questions are tight end and what to do with Goff. 

Goff was the 20th-ranked QB via PFF and, like on those great Rams teams, the offense seemed to do well despite him not because of him. OC Ben Johnson turned down head coaching interviews, but you can't expect him to do that forever. Look for the Lions to make some level of investment in their future at the position. 

Cap Space and Draft Capital

The upside of having Goff at QB is that his cap hit is just $30 million. as much as $20 million below some QBs. Despite that, the Lions have a surprisingly low amount of cap space, with just $13.8 million available. They may need to let Romeo Okwara, Michael Brockers, and other assorted JAG veterans to get enough space to make some respectable investments in the free-agent market. 

The team does have plenty of draft capital. They have the 6th pick and 18th pick in the first round and the 48th and 59th in the second. The Lions took a huge step forward this season and whether they will next season likely depends on their ability to turn three of those four top-60 picks into impact defenders right away. 

 

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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved form Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.

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Comments (35)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
stockholder's picture

February 06, 2023 at 05:04 pm

Steal more players off are roster.

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LeotisHarris's picture

February 06, 2023 at 07:28 pm

Our you sirius?

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croatpackfan's picture

February 07, 2023 at 05:54 am

LH, when I read stockholder post, despite of my English problems, I start to believe I'm quite OK in English.

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Nate-1980's picture

February 09, 2023 at 08:31 pm

Nah you make tons of mistakes all the time..:)

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PackyCheese500's picture

February 06, 2023 at 06:02 pm

The Bears and the Lions will be the class of the division next season. The Vikings are over the cap and already had a trashy defense last season, and they'll need to extend Hockenson and break the bank for Jefferson soon. They also were extremely lucky in one score games this year. I'd be surprised if they win more than 7 games in 2023.

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BirdDogUni's picture

February 06, 2023 at 08:25 pm

Get serious, da bares still suck... I pray they blow their cap space on FAs...

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PackyCheese500's picture

February 06, 2023 at 09:54 pm

They will, but with them likely getting a draft haul from trading down and signing a lot of former Eagles, they can do whatever they want. I would not be surprised to see guys like Orlando Brown or TJ Edwards as Bears next year.

I don't think they'll be great, but they will be decent

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Tekraut17's picture

February 07, 2023 at 02:35 pm

None of that matters as Fields is very AVERAGE. Take away his running ability and make him throw and it's all over!

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BirdDogUni's picture

February 07, 2023 at 11:21 pm

You just said the Bares and the Lions will be the class of the division. Either you believe that or you don't.

I'll take the Packers and Love over duh bares and Fields all day long. If we trade Rodgers, we'll likely have a draft haul of our own.

The only reason duh bares might have a chance against us is Barry, IMO.

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PackyCheese500's picture

February 08, 2023 at 04:56 pm

Just because they are the class of the division doesn't mean they will be good. The NFC North will be a bad division next year, but a decent Bears squad will likely be in 2nd place.

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wonderlandahead's picture

February 06, 2023 at 08:30 pm

I hope in the next season each team will try harder to win certain victories. To have no more regrets.

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Leatherhead's picture

February 06, 2023 at 08:30 pm

50+ years of perspective:

1) The Bears will be exciting to watch, they'll have big rushing numbers. Chicago has a great opportunity to get better this offseason, and although it'll look like they succeeded, they won't. They will win more games, though. I'm not sure they'll crawl out of the division basement.

2) The Lions had a high-water mark last year. They aren't that good. Their defense is terrible and Goff is the weakest QB in the division. Without the two gifts we gave them last year, they're 7-10. And that's what they'll be this next season.

3) The Vikings are bad defensively and they have a QB who isn't going to deliver in a big game against a good team. They'll fade after an exciting start. They'll have a worse record next year.

4) The Packers have the division's best defense, and they have a real opportunity to retool the offense. Which they will do, and they'll win the division again, like they're supposed to.

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LeotisHarris's picture

February 06, 2023 at 08:44 pm

I can live with this take, LH. Measured optimism with a healthy dose of reality.

I wish the Packers were introducing Brian Flores as their new DC. Great hire for the Vikings.

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Leatherhead's picture

February 07, 2023 at 09:40 am

I had a student/player named Brian Flores. He was a bad guy. He’s in prison now for murdering two teenagers. You can Google him.

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egbertsouse's picture

February 07, 2023 at 07:34 am

1. Wrong. The Bears will be as exciting as watching Mrs. McCaskey blow out the candles on her birthday cake.

2. Wrong. Rodgers is the weakest QB in the division. Goff outplayed him twice last season.

3. Right. Surprisingly.

4. Wrong. The Packers defense will finish third in the division.

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Leatherhead's picture

February 07, 2023 at 09:45 am

Justin Fields is exciting
Rodgers won’t be in the division

The Packer defense finished first in the division this season, and it was even close.

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Bitternotsour's picture

February 07, 2023 at 09:10 am

an interesting take, i'd add that the packers are behind in the leadership race, with poor offensive and defensive coordinators, and a weak head coach. leadership matters, it's why the lions knocked the packers out of the playoffs.

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Tekraut17's picture

February 07, 2023 at 02:39 pm

4) The Packers SHOULD have the division's best defense....there I corrected it for you. Now if they stop playing that weak azz soft zone and let our top tier DB's do what they are good at we WOULD have the division's best defense!!! And a lot more turnovers...

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PackyCheese500's picture

February 06, 2023 at 09:56 pm

I see the standings next year being this:

Lions
Bears
Packers
Vikings

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Leatherhead's picture

February 06, 2023 at 10:20 pm

This will not happen

Packers
Vikings
Lions
Bears

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croatpackfan's picture

February 07, 2023 at 05:57 am

I agree, except I would put Lions in front of Vikings...

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PackyCheese500's picture

February 08, 2023 at 04:57 pm

The Packers won't be winning the division with Barry and MLF around when the Lions are with Campbell. I could maybe see us in 2nd place. Vikings are due for a huge regression

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Leatherhead's picture

February 08, 2023 at 05:51 pm

The Great Dan Campbell. Two years in Detroit . 17-28-1 as a HC, including his time as interim HC in Miami, where they didn't want him back. That Dan Campbell? He's the one that's going to turn around a 60 year train wreck. OK. He's The One.

With the division's worst QB, and worst defense. When he does this, he's automatic Canton, IMO.

Detroit has been screwing up longer than Campbell has been alive.

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LeotisHarris's picture

February 08, 2023 at 06:06 pm

Hey, following Matt Patricia does have its benefits.

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HarryHodag's picture

February 07, 2023 at 07:00 am

This article was written before Brian Flores was named as Vikings DC. He will improve that unit by himself.
The Vikings will continue to be good.. With or without Rodgers I don't see the Packers overtaking them next year. They still have too much firepower on offense and with a slightly better defense they will be tough to catch.

The Bears will suck again next year but they will be better. I'm certain they will move out of the top pick to get more picks in the draft. With free agent signings they will be better. Their offensive line was truly offensive except for Jenkins.

Anyone who doubts the Lions is a fool. They have five of the first 70+ draft picks including two in the first, two in the second and a third. This is a talented team that is still on the rise, contrary to what the author says. If you look at each position(they will need a new tight end), this is a team with lots of firepower. The author is another Goff doubter. Goff made it to the Super Bowl and you saw his potential last year in a year without Jameson Williams most of the year, a player many considered the top pick in the 2022 draft if he wasn't injured. I'm a Packers fan through and through but the Packers roster just doesn't equal this one, especially with Rodgers and several others potentially moved on.
Then you have Dan Campbell who has changed the culture in Detroit.

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Leatherhead's picture

February 07, 2023 at 09:49 am

Anyone who doesn’t doubt the Lions is a fool, Net. 60 years of ineptitude speaks for itself.

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SinceLombardi's picture

February 07, 2023 at 06:47 pm

We had 30

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Leatherhead's picture

February 08, 2023 at 05:57 pm

No. That's not real math, or history. Following the inevitable post-Lombardi decline, the Packers last won the division in 1972. Then the Long Dry Spell, which ended when Ron Wolf took over in the early 90s, so it was only 20, not 30.

And this was in the day before salary cap or FA, so there was limited opportunity to improve your roster outside of the draft, and our drafting and personnel department wasn't very good. But that's another story.

The one constant in Detroit's sad history has been their ownership. Let me know when that changes.

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Nate-1980's picture

February 09, 2023 at 08:39 pm

Anyone who thinks Love at qb won’t make the packers last in the division is a fool..

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BirdDogUni's picture

February 09, 2023 at 09:02 pm

I won't call you a fool, but I do think you're underestimating Jordan Love's talent.

Duh bares still suck and so does Fields...

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T7Steve's picture

February 07, 2023 at 08:48 am

I see some predictions of where the teams will end up next year, listed above.

Will some of you guys list the coaching staffs in order for me?

That might actually be where the teams line up in the end.

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Bitternotsour's picture

February 07, 2023 at 09:13 am

1. Detroit
2. Chicago
3. Minnesota (based on their D-Coordinator hire)
4. Green Bay

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T7Steve's picture

February 07, 2023 at 09:18 am

That's a truly sad note. I hope our players don't think like that, but what else could they think?

Hard to put your body on the line for a bad room.

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BirdDogUni's picture

February 09, 2023 at 09:02 pm

Then we're %'ed...

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jont's picture

February 07, 2023 at 03:08 pm

The Bears are set up for a little trouble if Mike's assessment of the expected free agent market is correct.

There is also a salary floor, a minimum amount each team must pay in pllayer salaries each season. The Bears are loaded with cap space so they will have to sign players and step one is offering enough to get them. There is a very real risk of over paying. Then the Bears will be stuck with these guys for a 2-3 years. The Bears won't make the jump some Chicagoans are hoping for.

That's too bad.

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