Against the Spread: Packers vs. Rams

The Packers are favored by 15 points and the over/under is 47 1/2 points. So what's going to happen? Brian Carriveau has the prediction.

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's odds.)

Line: Packers -15

  • Bet the Packers: Despite last week's season-low 25-point output, the Packers still have the NFL's fourth-ranked offense putting up an average of over 420 yards per game. This week they'll not only have home-field advantage, they'll be taking on a winless Rams team that's only averaging 11.5 points per game.
  • Bet the Rams: Coming off a bye week, the Rams have an extra week to prepare for the Packers, which can't hurt. Not only that, it's just possible that with three former Packers on their roster in cornerbacks Al Harris and Josh Gordy along with linebacker Brady Poppinga, they just might have a little more knowledge of the Packers offense than the typical opponent. Head coach Steve Spanuolo has had success against the Packers before, notably as the defensive coordinator of the New York Giants when they beat the Packers in the 2007 NFC Championship game and went on to win the Super Bowl.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. The Rams are having a hard time getting anything working on either offense or defense. Packers roll.

Last week: I picked the Packers, and they covered the -5 1/2-point spread.

Over/under: 47 1/2

  • Bet the over: The Packers offense is prolific and they're facing a defense that's giving up an average of over 400 yards of offense and 22 first downs per game. That's a recipe for disaster and should allow the Packers to keep scoring points at an alarming pace. If there's reason to believe the Rams will turn things around, the hope lies in their skill position players, quarterback Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson who have been productive players in the past.
  • Bet the under: The Packers defense finally escaped the doldrum last week against Atlanta, holding them to 14 points, and if you take away the first quarter, really shut them down. Green Bay should be able to have a similar outing against a Rams offense that just can't get things going. The Rams aren't going to shut the Packers out, but if they can just force them to kick field goals like the Atlanta did to them last week, maybe the Packers won't put up quite so much.

Final decision: Bet the over. Last week was an aberration. The Packers will get back to scoring nearly 40 points by themselves.

Prediction: Packers 42 Rams 10

Last week: I picked the over. The point total came in under as the Packers offense took until late in the game to come to life.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 5–5

Cumulative record straight up: 4–1

0 points

Comments (14)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
PackersRS's picture

October 13, 2011 at 04:16 pm

Pick the Rams, not the Falcons. Grammar cop here.

Agreed with everything else. Don't think the Rams without their 3 corners can stop this offense, 47 is too low.

0 points
0
0
Brian Carriveau's picture

October 13, 2011 at 04:19 pm

Thanks for the head's up. Was using last week's template.

0 points
0
0
FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

October 13, 2011 at 05:29 pm

RS, I have a question. I believe I'm the one that started referring to you as RS due to sheer laziness. But I never wondered till right now what the RS stood for, or if calling you that even makes sense. Please advise, your pal Fitz.

0 points
0
0
PackersRS's picture

October 13, 2011 at 06:41 pm

My state's abbreviation.

0 points
0
0
pizzadoc's picture

October 13, 2011 at 10:39 pm

Are you in Brasil, RS? How did you become a fan?

0 points
0
0
PackersRS's picture

October 14, 2011 at 10:55 am

Long story short, my father was an exchange student in Racine in the late 60's.

0 points
0
0
Chad Toporski's picture

October 13, 2011 at 04:29 pm

Psst... you still have "Bet the Falcons" instead of "Bet the Rams"...

I won't tell anyone, though.

;-)

[EDIT]

*shakes fist at RS*

0 points
0
0
FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

October 13, 2011 at 05:25 pm

Yeah, RS sucks.

0 points
0
0
PackersRS's picture

October 13, 2011 at 06:40 pm

You louzy Springfielders, you... Shake harder, boy!

0 points
0
0
FITZCORE1252's picture

October 13, 2011 at 08:07 pm

Go back to Shelbyville.

0 points
0
0
Tommyboy's picture

October 13, 2011 at 08:08 pm

+1000 - beautiful Simpsons reference.

0 points
0
0
Majik Man's picture

October 14, 2011 at 06:02 am

WHOOT, WHOOT WHOOT WHOOT!

0 points
0
0
FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

October 13, 2011 at 05:25 pm

With you Brian.

0 points
0
0
MarkinMadison's picture

October 14, 2011 at 07:21 am

The Rams perfectly illustrate what BLF was probably trying to say about AR landing with the Packers. Talented young quarterback. Everyone has expectations for the Rams. The team around him really can't get it done.

Bradford is tied for first place in the league with 18. Unfortunately, that's 18 sacks, not touchdowns. If the Packers can't generate the pass rush against this crew then they've got incurable problems. The Rams offense is last in the league in points per game, and at or near the bottom of every other meaningful offensive stat. It's a no-brainer to take the Packers to win. I'll take the over by a nose, but only because the Packers hung 49 on Denver.

0 points
0
0